Search results for: multivariate exponentially weighted moving average

Authors: Mehmet Yavuz Hüseyinca, Şuayip Küpeli

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Sandstones from Upper Eocene - Oligocene Tepeköy formation (Member of Mezgit Group) that exposed on the eastern edge of Tuz Gölü (Salt Lake) were analyzed for their rare earth element (REE) contents. Average concentrations of ΣREE, ΣLREE (Total light rare earth elements) and ΣHREE (Total heavy rare earth elements) were determined as 31.37, 26.47 and 4.55 ppm respectively. These values are lower than UCC (Upper continental crust) which indicates grain size and/or CaO dilution effect. The chondrite-normalized REE pattern is characterized by the average ratios of (La/Yb)cn = 6.20, (La/Sm)cn = 4.06, (Gd/Lu)cn = 1.10, Eu/Eu* = 0.99 and Ce/Ce* = 0.94. Lower values of ΣLREE/ΣHREE (Average 5.97) and (La/Yb)cn suggest lower fractionation of overall REE. Moreover (La/Sm)cn and (Gd/Lu)cn ratios define less inclined LREE and almost flat HREE pattern when compared with UCC. Almost no Ce anomaly (Ce/Ce*) emphasizes that REE were originated from terrigenous material. Also depleted LREE and no Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*) suggest an undifferentiated mafic provenance for the sandstones.

Keywords: central Anatolia, provenance, rare earth elements, REE, Tepeköy sandstone

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Authors: Ruttana Phetsitong, Patama Vapattanawong, Malee Sunpuwan, Marc Voelker

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The majority of care for older people at home in Thai society falls upon caregivers resulting in caregiver’s mental health problem. Beyond individual characteristics, household factors might have a profound effect on the caregiver’s mental health. But reliable data capturing this at the household level have been limited to date. The objectives of the present study were to explore the levels of Thai caregiver’s mental health and to investigate the factors affecting the mental health at household level. Data were obtained from the 2011 National Survey of Thai Older Persons conducted by the National Statistical Office of Thailand. Caregiver’s mental health was measured by using the 15- items-short version of the Thai Mental Health Indicator (TMHI-15) developed by the Department of Mental Health, the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to explore the impact of potential factors on caregiver’s mental health. The THMI-15 produced an overall average caregiver mental health score of 30.9 out of 45 (SD 5.3). The score can be categorized into good (34.02-45), fair (27.01-34), and poor (0-27). Duration of care for older people, household wealth, and functional dependency of the older people significantly predicted total caregiver’s mental health. Household economic factor was key in predicting better mental health. Compared to those poorest households, the adjusted effect of the fifth quintile household wealth was high (OR=2.34; 95%CI=1.47-3.73). The findings of this study provide a fuller picture to a better understanding of the level and factors that cause the mental health of Thai caregivers. Health care providers and policymakers should consider these factors when designing interventions aimed at alleviating caregiver’s psychological burden when provided care for older people at home.

Keywords: caregiver’s mental health, household, older people, Thailand

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Authors: A. Clementking, C. Jothi Venkateswaran

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Mathematical and computational functionalities such as descriptive mining, optimization, and predictions are espoused to resolve natural resource planning. The water quality prediction and its attributes influence determinations are adopted optimization techniques. The water properties are tainted while merging water resource one with another. This work aimed to predict influencing water resource distribution connectivity in accordance to water quality and sediment using an innovative proposed master-slave neural network back-propagation model. The experiment results are arrived through collecting water quality attributes, computation of water quality index, design and development of neural network model to determine water quality and sediment, master–slave back propagation neural network back-propagation model to determine variations on water quality and sediment attributes between the water resources and the recommendation for connectivity. The homogeneous and parallel biochemical reactions are influences water quality and sediment while distributing water from one location to another. Therefore, an innovative master-slave neural network model [M (9:9:2)::S(9:9:2)] designed and developed to predict the attribute variations. The result of training dataset given as an input to master model and its maximum weights are assigned as an input to the slave model to predict the water quality. The developed master-slave model is predicted physicochemical attributes weight variations for 85 % to 90% of water quality as a target values.The sediment level variations also predicated from 0.01 to 0.05% of each water quality percentage. The model produced the significant variations on physiochemical attribute weights. According to the predicated experimental weight variation on training data set, effective recommendations are made to connect different resources.

Keywords: master-slave back propagation neural network model(MSBPNNM), water quality analysis, multivariate analysis, environmental mining

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Authors: Parimalakrishnan Sundararjan, Madheswaran Murugan, Dhanya Dharman, Yatindra Kumar, Sudhir Singh Gangwar, Guru Prasad Mohanta

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Antibiotic resistance AR is a global issue, India started to redress the issues of antibiotic resistance late and it plans to have: active surveillance of microbial resistance and promote appropriate use of antibiotics. The present study attempted to achieve appropriate use of antibiotics through pharmacists’ intervention at practice point. In a quasi-experimental prospective cohort study, the cases with bacteremia from four hospitals were identified during 2015 and 2016 for intervention. The pharmacists centered intervention: active screening of each prescription and comparing with the selection of antibiotics with susceptibility of the bacteria. Wherever irrationality noticed, it was brought to the notice of the treating physician for making changes. There were two groups: intervention group and control group without intervention. The active screening and intervention in 915 patients has reduced therapeutic regimen time in patients with bacteremia. The intervention group showed the decreased duration of hospital stay 3.4 days from 5.1 days. Further, multivariate modeling of patients who were in control group showed that patients in the intervention group had a significant decrease in both duration of hospital stay and infection-related mortality. Unlike developed countries, pharmacists are not active partners in patient care in India. This unique attempt of pharmacist’ invention was planned in consultation with hospital authorities which proved beneficial in terms of reducing the duration of treatment, hospital stay, and infection-related mortality. This establishes the need for a collaborative decision making among the health workforce in patient care at least for promoting rational use of antibiotics, an attempt to combat resistance.

Keywords: antibiotics resistance, intervention, bacteremia, multivariate modeling

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Authors: Belmiloud Mohamed Amine, Sad Chemloul Nord-Eddine

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In this study we investigated numerically heat transfer by mixed convection coupled to radiation in a square cavity; the upper horizontal wall is movable. The purpose of this study is to see the influence of the emissivity and the varying of the Richardson number on the variation of the average Nusselt number. The vertical walls of the cavity are differentially heated, the left wall is maintained at a uniform temperature higher than the right wall, and the two horizontal walls are adiabatic. The finite volume method is used for solving the dimensionless governing equations. Emissivity values used in this study are ranged between 0 and 1, the Richardson number in the range 0.1 to10. The Rayleigh number is fixed to Ra = 10000 and the Prandtl number is maintained constant Pr = 0.71. Streamlines, isothermal lines and the average Nusselt number are presented according to the surface emissivity. The results of this study show that the Richardson number and emissivity affect the average Nusselt number.

Keywords: mixed convection, square cavity, wall emissivity, lid-driven, numerical study

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Authors: Payal Maheshwari, Maheaswari Brindavan

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The present study aimed at studying the level of perceived self-efficacy of children with learning disability and their mother’s perception about the efficacy of the child and the relationship between the two. The study further aimed at finding out the relationship between the level of perceived self-efficacy of children with learning disability and their academic achievement and their mother’s perception about the Efficacy of the child and child’s Academic Achievement. The sample comprised of 80 respondents (40 children with learning disability and their mothers). Children with learning disability as their primary condition, belonging to middle or upper middle class, living with both the parents, residing in Mumbai and their mothers were selected. Purposive or judgmental and snowball sampling technique was used to select the sample for the present study. Proformas in the form of questionnaires were used to obtain the background information of the children with learning disability and their mother’s. A self-constructed Mother’s Perceived Efficacy of their Child Assessment Scale was used to measure mothers perceived level of efficacy of their child with learning disability. Self-constructed Child’s Perceived Self-Efficacy Assessment Scale was used to measure the level of child’s perceived self-efficacy. Academic scores of the child were collected from the child’s parents or teachers and were converted into percentage. The data were analyzed quantitatively using frequencies, mean and standard deviation. Correlations were computed to ascertain the relationships between the different variables. The findings revealed that majority of the mother’s perceived efficacy about their child with learning disability was above average as well as majority of the children with learning disability also perceived themselves as having above average level of self-efficacy. Further in the domains of self-regulated learning and emotional self-efficacy majority of the mothers perceived their child as having average or below average efficacy, 50% of the children also perceived their self-efficacy in the two domains at average or below average level. A significant (r=.322, p < .05) weak correlation (Spearman’s rho) was found between mother’s perceived efficacy about their child, and child’s perceived self-efficacy and a significant (r=.377, p < .01) weak correlation (Pearson Correlation) was also found between mother’s perceived efficacy about their child and child’s academic achievement. Significant weak positive correlation was found between child’s perceived self-efficacy and academic achievement (r=.332, p < .05). Based on the findings, the study discussed the need for intervention program for children in non-academic skills like self-regulation and emotional competence.

Keywords: learning disability, perceived self efficacy, academic achievement, mothers, children

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Authors: Dianis Wulan Sari, Takeo Minematsu, Mikako Yoshida, Hiromi Sanada

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Introduction: Pruritus is diagnosed as itching without macroscopic abnormalities on skin. It is the most skin complaint of elderly people. In the present study, we conducted a dermatological study to examine the risk factors of pruritic skin and predicted how to prevent pruritus especially in the elderly population. Pruritus is caused several types of inflammation, including epidermal innate immunity based on keratinocyte responses and acquired immunity regulated by type 1 or 2 helper T (Th) cells. The triggers of pruritus differ among inflammation types, therefore we did separately assess the pruritus-associated factors of each inflammation type in an effort to contribute to the identification of intervention targets for preventing pruritus. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the factors related with actual condition of pruritic skin by examine the skin properties. Method: This study was conducted in elderly population of Indonesian nursing home. Basic characteristics and behaviors were obtained by interview. The properties of pruritic skin were collected by examination of skin biomarker using skin blotting as novel method of non-invasive skin assessment method and examination of skin barrier function using stratum corneum hydration and skin pH. Result: The average age of participants was 74 years with independent status was 66.8%. Age (β = -0.130, p = 0.044), cumulative lifetime sun exposure (β = 0.145, p = 0.026), bathing duration (β = 0.151, p = 0.022), clothing change frequency (β = 0.135, p = 0.029), and clothing type (β = -0.139, p = 0.021) were risk factors of pruritic skin in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Risk factors of pruritic skin in elderly population were caused by internal factors such as skin senescence and external factors such as sun exposure, hygiene care and skin care behavior.

Keywords: aging, hygiene care, pruritus, skin care, sun exposure

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Authors: Krishang Surapaneni

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The goal of this project is to determine how to predict important aspects of options, including the ask price. We want to compare different machine learning models to learn the best model and the best hyperparameters for that model for this purpose and data set. Option pricing is a relatively new field, and it can be very complicated and intimidating, especially to inexperienced people, so we want to create a machine learning model that can predict important aspects of an option stock, which can aid in future research. We tested multiple different models and experimented with hyperparameter tuning, trying to find some of the best parameters for a machine-learning model. We tested three different models: a Random Forest Regressor, a linear regressor, and an MLP (multi-layer perceptron) regressor. The most important feature in this experiment is the ask price; this is what we were trying to predict. In the field of stock pricing prediction, there is a large potential for error, so we are unable to determine the accuracy of the models based on if they predict the pricing perfectly. Due to this factor, we determined the accuracy of the model by finding the average percentage difference between the predicted and actual values. We tested the accuracy of the machine learning models by comparing the actual results in the testing data and the predictions made by the models. The linear regression model performed worst, with an average percentage error of 17.46%. The MLP regressor had an average percentage error of 11.45%, and the random forest regressor had an average percentage error of 7.42%

Keywords: finance, linear regression model, machine learning model, neural network, stock price

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Authors: Jia-Chao Wang

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A model of the universe without invoking space expansion is proposed to explain the observed redshift-distance relation and the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB). The main hypothesized feature of the model is that photons traveling in space interact with the CMB photon gas. This interaction causes the photons to gradually lose energy through dissipation and, therefore, experience redshift. The interaction also causes some of the photons to be scattered off their track toward an observer and, therefore, results in beam intensity attenuation. As observed, the CMB exists everywhere in space and its photon density is relatively high (about 410 per cm³). The small average energy of the CMB photons (about 6.3×10⁻⁴ eV) can reduce the energies of traveling photons gradually and will not alter their momenta drastically as in, for example, Compton scattering, to totally blur the images of distant objects. An object moving through a thermalized photon gas, such as the CMB, experiences a drag. The cause is that the object sees a blue shifted photon gas along the direction of motion and a redshifted one in the opposite direction. An example of this effect can be the observed CMB dipole: The earth travels at about 368 km/s (600 km/s) relative to the CMB. In the all-sky map from the COBE satellite, radiation in the Earth's direction of motion appears 0.35 mK hotter than the average temperature, 2.725 K, while radiation on the opposite side of the sky is 0.35 mK colder. The pressure of a thermalized photon gas is given by Pγ = Eγ/3 = αT⁴/3, where Eγ is the energy density of the photon gas and α is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. The observed CMB dipole, therefore, implies a pressure difference between the two sides of the earth and results in a CMB drag on the earth. By plugging in suitable estimates of quantities involved, such as the cross section of the earth and the temperatures on the two sides, this drag can be estimated to be tiny. But for a photon traveling at the speed of light, 300,000 km/s, the drag can be significant. In the present model, for the dissipation part, it is assumed that a photon traveling from a distant object toward an observer has an effective interaction cross section pushing against the pressure of the CMB photon gas. For the attenuation part, the coefficient of the typical attenuation equation is used as a parameter. The values of these two parameters are determined by fitting the 748 µ vs. z data points compiled from 643 supernova and 105 γ-ray burst observations with z values up to 8.1. The fit is as good as that obtained from the lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model using online cosmological calculators and Planck 2015 results. The model can be used to interpret Hubble's constant, Olbers' paradox, the origin and blackbody nature of the CMB radiation, the broadening of supernova light curves, and the size of the observable universe.

Keywords: CMB as the lowest energy state, model of the universe, origin of CMB in a static universe, photon-CMB photon gas interaction

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Authors: Komal Saini, S. K. Sahoo, B. S. Bajwa

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The Laser Fluorimetery Technique has been used for the microanalysis of uranium content in water samples collected from different sources like the hand pumps, tube wells in the drinking water samples of SW & NE Punjab, India. The geographic location of the study region in NE Punjab is between latitude 31.21º- 32.05º N and longitude 75.60º-76.14º E and for SW Punjab is between latitude 29.66º-30.48º N and longitude 74.69º-75.54º E. The purpose of this study was mainly to investigate the uranium concentration levels of ground water being used for drinking purposes and to determine its health effects, if any, to the local population of these regions. In the present study 131 samples of drinking water collected from different villages of SW and 95 samples from NE, Punjab state, India have been analyzed for chemical and radiological toxicity. In the present investigation, uranium content in water samples of SW Punjab ranges from 0.13 to 908 μgL−1 with an average of 82.1 μgL−1 whereas in samples collected from NE- Punjab, it ranges from 0 to 28.2 μgL−1 with an average of 4.84 μgL−1. Thus, revealing that in the SW- Punjab 54 % of drinking water samples have uranium concentration higher than international recommended limit of 30 µgl-1 (WHO, 2011) while 35 % of samples exceeds the threshold of 60 µgl-1 recommended by our national regulatory authority of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), Department of Atomic Energy, India, 2004. On the other hand in the NE-Punjab region, none of the observed water sample has uranium content above the national/international recommendations. The observed radiological risk in terms of excess cancer risk ranges from 3.64x10-7 to 2.54x10-3 for SW-Punjab, whereas for NE region it ranges from 0 to 7.89x10-5. The chemical toxic effect in terms of Life-time average Daily Dose (LDD) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) have also been calculated. The LDD for SW-Punjab varies from 0.0098 to 68.46 with an average of 6.18 µg/ kg/day whereas for NE region it varies from 0 to 2.13 with average 0.365 µg/ kg/day, thus indicating presence of chemical toxicity in SW Punjab as 35% of the observed samples in the SW Punjab are above the recommendation limit of 4.53 µg/ kg/day given by AERB for 60 µgl-1 of uranium. Maximum & Minimum values for hazard quotient for SW Punjab is 0.002 & 15.11 with average 1.36 which is considerably high as compared to safe limit i.e. 1. But for NE Punjab HQ varies from 0 to 0.47. The possible sources of high uranium observed in the SW- Punjab will also be discussed.

Keywords: uranium, groundwater, radiological and chemical toxicity, Punjab, India

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Authors: Abdelsabour G. A. Khaled, Galal A.R. El-Sherbeny, Ahmed M. Hassanein, Gameel M. G. Aly

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Classical methods of identification, based on agronomical characterization, are not always the most accurate way due to the instability of these characteristics under the influence of the different environments. In order to estimate the genetic diversity, molecular markers provided excellent tools. In this study, Genetic variation of nine Egyptian jojoba shrubs was tested using ISSR (inter simple sequences repeats), RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers and based on the morphological characterization. The average of the percentage of polymorphism (%P) ranged between 58.17% and 74.07% for ISSR and RAPD markers, respectively. The range of genetic similarity percents among shrubs based on ISSR and RAPD markers were from 82.9 to 97.9% and from 85.5 to 97.8%, respectively. The average of PIC (polymorphism information content) values were 0.19 (ISSR) and 0.24 (RAPD). In the present study, RAPD markers were more efficient than the ISSR markers. Where the RAPD technique exhibited higher marker index (MI) average (1.26) compared to ISSR one (1.11). There was an insignificant correlation between the ISSR and RAPD data (0.076, P > 0.05). The dendrogram constructed by the combined RAPD and ISSR data gave a relatively different clustering pattern.

Keywords: correlation, molecular markers, polymorphism, marker index

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Authors: Anis A. Ansari, Syed Javed Arif

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From the last two-three decades, all countries are continuously generating huge quantities of electronic waste in the form of obsolete computers, gadgets and other discarded electronic instruments mainly due to evolution of newer technologies as a result of constant efforts in research and development in this area. This is the primary reason why waste from the electronic industry is increasing exponentially day by day. Thermoset and thermoplastic polymers, which are the major constituents in every electronic waste, may create a new business opportunity if these are recovered and recycled properly. This may reduce our directly dependency on petroleum and petro-products for polymer materials and also create a potential market for recycled polymers to improve economy. The main theme of this paper is to evolve the potential of recovery and recycling of polymers from the waste being generated globally in the form of discarded electronic products.

Keywords: polymer recovery, electronic waste, petroleum, thermoplastics

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Authors: Rezvan Hosseinian

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Aim: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic connective tissue disease with the clinical hallmark of skin thickening and tethering. The correlation of musculoskeletal features with other parameters should be considered in SSc patients. Methods: We reviewed the records of all patients who had more than one visit and standard anteroposterior radiography of hand. We used univariate analysis, and factors with p<0.05 were included in logistic regression to find out dependent factors. Results: Overall, 180 SSc patients were enrolled in our study, 161 (89.4%) of whom were women. The median age (IQR) was 47.0 years (16), and 52% had a diffuse subtype of the disease. In multivariate analysis, tendon friction rubs (TFRs) were associated with the presence of calcinosis, muscle tenderness, and flexion contracture (FC) on physical examination (p<0.05). Arthritis showed no differences in the two subtypes of the disease (p=0.98), and in multivariate analysis, there were no correlations between radiographic arthritis and serological and clinical features. The radiographic results indicated that disease duration correlated with joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, resorption of the distal ulna, calcinosis and radiologic FC (p< 0.05). Acro-osteolysis was more frequent in the dcSSc subtype, TFRs, and anti-TOPO I antibody. Radiologic FC showed an association with skin score, calcinosis and haematocrit <30% (p<0.05). Joint flexion on radiography was associated with disease duration, modified Rodnan skin score, calcinosis, and low hematocrit (P<0.01). Conclusion: Disease duration was a main dependent factor for developing joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, bone resorption, calcinosis, and flexion contracture on hand radiography. Acro-osteolysis presented in the severe form of the disease. Acro-osteolysis was the only dependent variable associated with bone demineralization.

Keywords: disease subsets, hand radiography, joint erosion, sclerosis

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Authors: Nasrin Azarbani

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Aim: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic connective tissue disease with the clinical hallmark of skin thickening and tethering. Correlation of musculoskeletal features with other parameters should be considered in SSc patients. Methods: We reviewed the records of all patients who had more than one visit and standard anteroposterior radiography of hand. We used univariate analysis, and factors with p<0.05 were included in logistic regression to find out dependent factors. Results: Overall, 180 SSc patients were enrolled in our study, 161 (89.4%) of whom were women. Median age (IQR) was 47.0 years (16), and 52% had diffuse subtype of the disease. In multivariate analysis, tendon friction rubs (TFRs) was associated with the presence of calcinosis, muscle tenderness, and flexion contracture (FC) on physical examination (p<0.05). Arthritis showed no differences in the two subtypes of the disease (p=0.98), and in multivariate analysis, there were no correlations between radiographic arthritis and serological and clinical features. The radiographic results indicated that disease duration correlated with joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, resorption of distal ulna, calcinosis and radiologic FC (p< 0.05). Acro-osteolysis was more frequent in the dcSSc subtype, TFRs, and anti-TOPO I antibody. Radiologic FC showed an association with skin score, calcinosis and haematocrit <30% (p<0.05). Joint flexion on radiography was associated with disease duration, modified Rodnan skin score, calcinosis, and low haematocrit (P<0.01). Conclusion: Disease duration was a main dependent factor for developing joint erosion, acro-osteolysis, bone resorption, calcinosis, and flexion contracture on hand radiography. Acro-osteolysis presented in the severe form of the disease. Acro-osteolysis was the only dependent variable associated with bone demineralization.

Keywords: sclerosis, disease subsets, joint erosion, musculoskeletal

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Authors: Sridhar S, Govinda Raj Mandela, Aruna Mangalpady

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In the present day scenario, Indian underground mines are moving towards full scale mechanisation for improvement of production and productivity levels. These mines are employing a wide variety of earth moving machines for the transportation of ore and overburden (waste). Low Profile Dump Trucks (LPDTs) have proven more advantageous towards improvement of production levels in underground mines through quick transportation. During the operation of LPDT, different kinds of vibrations are generated which can affect the health condition of the operator. Keeping this in view, the present research work focuses on measurement and evaluation of Hand Arm Vibrations (HAVs) from the steering system of LPDTs. The study also aims to evaluate the HAVs of different job components of a work cycle in operating LPDTs. The HAVs were measured and evaluated according to ISO 5349-2: 2001 standards, and the daily vibration exposures A(8) were calculated. The evaluated A(8) results show that LPDTs of 60 and 50 tons capacity have vibration levels more than that of the Exposure Action Value (EAV) of 2.5 m/s2 in every job component of the work cycle. Further, the results show that the vibration levels were more during empty haulage especially during descending journey when compared to other job components in all LPDTs considered for the study.

Keywords: low profile dump trucks, hand arm vibrations, exposure action value, underground mines

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Semedo

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: Vahdetti̇n Sariyel, Bi̇rol Dağ

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In this research, growth and development parameters in Konya, a private company in Saanen kids reared in intensive conditions in the province were examined. Average birth weights were 3.42, 2.96, 3.57, 3.23 and 2.77 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids. Average weaning weights (three months of age) were 12.65, 12.09, 12.80, 12.65 and 11.68 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids. Average body weights at seven months of age were 20.55, 18.98, 20.12, 20.12 and 19.05 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids respectively. Considering the gender of the live weight factors birth control and rule in favor of the first en ( P <0.01), the second control finally it disappeared statistically significant ( P> 0.05). Main age and the effect of birth weight in the first month, while significant (P < 0.01); The effect of the second month following the live weight of the kid was not significant.

Keywords: Saanen kids, growth, development, body weight

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Authors: Diane Ghanem, Oscar Covarrubias, Ridge Maxson, Samir Sabharwal, Babar Shafiq

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Introduction: Web-based resources serve as a fundamental educational platform for orthopaedic trauma patients; however, they are notoriously written at a high grade reading level and are often too complicated for patients to benefit from them. The aim of this study is to perform an updated assessment of the readability of the AAOS trauma-related educational articles and compare their readability with that of injury-specific patient education materials developed by the OTA. Methods: All forty-six trauma-related articles on the AAOS patient education website were analyzed for readability. Two independent reviewers used the (1) Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL) and the (2) Flesch Reading Ease (FRE) algorithms to calculate the readability level. Mean readability scores were compared across body part categories. One-sample t-test was done to compare mean FKGL with the recommended 6th-grade readability level and the average American adult reading level. Two-sample t-test was used to compare the readability scores of the AAOS trauma-related articles to those of the OTA. Results: The average FKGL and FRE for the AAOS articles were 8.9±0.74 and 57.2±5.8, respectively. All articles were written above the 6th-grade reading level. The average readability of the AAOS articles was significantly greater than the recommended 6th-grade and average American adult reading level. The average FKGL (8.9±0.74 vs 8.1±1.14) and FRE (57.2±5.8 vs 65.6±6.6) for all AAOS articles was significantly greater compared to that of OTA articles. Excellent agreement was observed between raters for the FKGL 0.956 (95%CI 0.922 - 0.975) and FRE 0.993 (95%CI 0.987 – 0.996). Discussion: Our findings suggest that, after almost a decade, the readability of the AAOS trauma-related articles remains unchanged. The AAOS and OTA trauma patient education materials have high readability levels and may be too difficult for patient comprehension. A need remains to improve the readability of these commonly used trauma education materials.

Keywords: american ocademy of orthopaedic surgeons, FKGL, FRE, orthopaedic trauma association, patient education, readability

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Authors: Saeid Haghjoo, Ebrahim Reyhani, Fahimeh Kolahdouz

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The present study aimed to evaluate the understanding of the students in Tehran universities (Iran) about the numerical representation of the average rate of change based on the Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes (SOLO). In the present descriptive-survey research, the statistical population included undergraduate students (basic sciences and engineering) in the universities of Tehran. The samples were 604 students selected by random multi-stage clustering. The measurement tool was a task whose face and content validity was confirmed by math and mathematics education professors. Using Cronbach's Alpha criterion, the reliability coefficient of the task was obtained 0.95, which verified its reliability. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (chi-squared and independent t-tests) under SPSS-24 software. According to the SOLO model in the prestructural, unistructural, and multistructural levels, basic science students had a higher percentage of understanding than that of engineering students, although the outcome was inverse at the relational level. However, there was no significant difference in the average understanding of both groups. The results indicated that students failed to have a proper understanding of the numerical representation of the average rate of change, in addition to missconceptions when using physics formulas in solving the problem. In addition, multiple solutions were derived along with their dominant methods during the qualitative analysis. The current research proposed to focus on the context problems with approximate calculations and numerical representation, using software and connection common relations between math and physics in the teaching process of teachers and professors.

Keywords: average rate of change, context problems, derivative, numerical representation, SOLO taxonomy

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Authors: Irina Khutsishvili

Abstract:

In the present research, a decision support methodology for the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problem is developed, namely for the selection of investment projects. The objective of the investment project selection problem is to choose the best project among the set of projects, seeking investment, or to rank all projects in descending order. The project selection is made considering a set of weighted attributes. To evaluate the attributes in our approach, expert assessments are used. In the proposed methodology, lingual expressions (linguistic terms) given by all experts are used as initial attribute evaluations, since they are the most natural and convenient representation of experts' evaluations. Then lingual evaluations are converted into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and the aggregate trapezoidal hesitant fuzzy decision matrix will be built. The case is considered when information on the attribute weights is completely unknown. The attribute weights are identified based on the De Luca and Termini information entropy concept, determined in the context of hesitant fuzzy sets. The decisions are made using the extended Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method under a hesitant fuzzy environment. Hence, a methodology is based on a trapezoidal valued hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS decision-making model with entropy weights. The ranking of alternatives is performed by the proximity of their distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and the fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS). For this purpose, the weighted hesitant Hamming distance is used. An example of investment decision-making is shown that clearly explains the procedure of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: In the present research, a decision support methodology for the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problem is developed, namely for the selection of investment projects. The objective of the investment project selection problem is to choose the best project among the set of projects, seeking investment, or to rank all projects in descending order. The project selection is made considering a set of weighted attributes. To evaluate the attributes in our approach, expert assessments are used. In the proposed methodology, lingual expressions (linguistic terms) given by all experts are used as initial attribute evaluations since they are the most natural and convenient representation of experts' evaluations. Then lingual evaluations are converted into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and the aggregate trapezoidal hesitant fuzzy decision matrix will be built. The case is considered when information on the attribute weights is completely unknown. The attribute weights are identified based on the De Luca and Termini information entropy concept, determined in the context of hesitant fuzzy sets. The decisions are made using the extended Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method under a hesitant fuzzy environment. Hence, a methodology is based on a trapezoidal valued hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS decision-making model with entropy weights. The ranking of alternatives is performed by the proximity of their distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and the fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS). For this purpose, the weighted hesitant Hamming distance is used. An example of investment decision-making is shown that clearly explains the procedure of the proposed methodology.

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Authors: Zegrar Ahmed, Ghabi Mohamed

Abstract:

The degradation of arid and semi-arid ecosystems in Algeria has become a palpable fact that only hinders progress and rural development. In these exceptionally fragile environments, the decline of vegetation is done according to an alarming increase and wind erosion dominates. The ecosystem is subjected to a long hot dry season and low annual average rainfall. The urgency of the fight against desertification is imposed by the very nature of the process that tends to self-accelerate, resulting when human intervention is not forthcoming the irreversibility situations, preventing any possibility of restoration state of these zones. These phenomena have led to different degradation processes, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil erosion, and deterioration of the physical environment. In this study, the work is mainly based on the criteria for classification and identification of physical parameters for spatial analysis and multi-sources to determine the vulnerability of major steppe formations and their impact on desertification. we used Landsat data with two different dates March 2010 and November 2014 in order to determine the changes in land cover, sand moving and land degradation for the diagnosis of the desertification Phenomenon. The application, through specific processes, including the supervised classification was used to characterize the main steppe formations. An analysis of the vulnerability of plant communities was conducted to assign weights and identify areas most susceptible to desertification. Vegetation indices are used to characterize the steppe formations to determine changes in land use.

Keywords: remote sensing, SIG, ecosystem, degradation, desertification

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Authors: Abdulsalam. I. Rafida, Marwa. F. Elalem, Hasna. E. Alemam

Abstract:

This study aimed at testing the various types of water in some areas of the city of Tripoli, Libya for the presence of Heterotrophic Aerobic Bacteria (HAB), and anaerobic Sulphate Reducing Bacteria (SRB). The water samples under investigation included rainwater accumulating on the ground, sewage water (from the city sewage treatment station, sulphate water from natural therapy swimming sites), and sea water (i.e. sea water exposed to pollution by untreated sewage water, and unpolluted sea water from specific locations). A total of 20 samples have been collected distributed as follows: rain water (8 samples), sewage water (6 samples), and sea water (6 samples). An up-to-date method for estimation has been used featuring readymade solutions i.e. (BARTTM test for HAB and BARTTM test for SRB). However, with the exception of one rain water sample, the results have indicated that the target bacteria have been present in all samples. Regarding HAB bacteria the samples have shown a maximum average of 7.0 x 106 cfu/ml featuring sewage and rain water and a minimum average of 1.8 x 104 cuf/ml featuring unpolluted sea water collected from a specific location. As for SRB bacteria; a maximum average of 7.0 x 105 cfu/ml has been shown by sewage and rain water and a minimum average of 1.8 x 104 cfu/ml by sewage and sea water. The above results highlight the relationship between pollution and the presence of bacteria in water particularly water collected from specific locations, and also the presence of bacteria as the result of the use of water provided that a suitable environment exists for its growth.

Keywords: heterotrophic aerobic bacteria (HAB), sulphate reducing bacteria (SRB), water, environmental sciences

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Authors: Himansu, Bedanga Talukdar

Abstract:

The aim of present study is to investigate the prevalence of various health outcomes and quality of life and analyzes the moderating role of social capital on health outcomes (i.e., self-rated good health (SRH), depression, functional health and quality of life) among elderly in India. Using WHO Study on Global AGEing and adults health (SAGE) data, with sample of 6559 elderly between 50 and above (Mage=61.81, SD=9.00) age were selected for analysis. Multivariate analysis accessed the prevalence of SRH, depression, functional limitation and quality of life among older adults. Logistic regression evaluates the effect of social capital along with other co-founders on SRH, depression, and functional limitation, whereas linear regression evaluates the effect of social capital with other co-founders on quality of life (QoL) among elderly. Empirical results reveal that (74%) of respondents were married, (70%) having low social action, (46%) medium sociability, (45%) low trust-solidarity, (58%) high safety, (65%) medium civic engagement and 37% reported medium psychological resources. The multivariate analysis, explains (SRH) is associated with age, female, having education, higher social action great trust, safety and greater psychological resources. Depression among elderly is greatly related to age, sex, education and higher wealth, higher sociability, having psychological resources. QoL is negatively associated with age, sex, being Muslim, whereas positive associated with higher education, currently married, civic engagement, having wealth, social action, trust and solidarity, safeness, and strong psychological resources.

Keywords: depressive symptom, functional limitation, older adults, quality of life, self rated health, social capital

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

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Authors: Drew Fockler

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This research examines how to improve an employee’s experience when transferring between departments within an organization. This research includes a historical review of a Canadian retail organization. Based on this historical review, gaps are identified between current and future visions to show where problems with existing training and development practices need to be resolved to reduce front-line employee turnover within an organization. The strategies within this paper support leaders through the LEAD: Listen, Explore, Act and Develop, Change Management Model. The LEAD Change Management Model supports the change process. This research proposes three possible solutions to improve an employee who is transferring between departments. The best solution to resolve the problem of improving an employee moving between departments experience is creating a Training Manager position within the retail store. A Training Manager position could support both employees and leadership with training and development of staff who are moving between departments. Within this research, an implementation plan using the TransX Model was created. The TransX Model is a hybrid of Leader-Member Exchange Theory and Transformational Leadership Theory to facilitate this organizational change within an organization by creating a common vision. Finally, this research provides the next steps as well as future considerations to enhance the training manager role within an organization.

Keywords: employee transfers, employee engagement, human resources, employee induction, TransX model, lead change management model

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Authors: Vineet Agrawal, Deepanjali S., Medha R., Subitha L.

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Background. Hospital malnutrition is a highly prevalent issue and is known to increase the morbidity, mortality, length of hospital stay, and cost of care. In India, studies on hospital malnutrition have been restricted to ICU, post-surgical, and cancer patients. We designed this study to assess the impact of hospital malnutrition on 30-day post-discharge and in-hospital mortality in patients admitted in the general medicine department, irrespective of diagnosis. Methodology. All patients aged above 18 years admitted in the medicine wards, excluding medico-legal cases, were enrolled in the study. Nutritional assessment was done within 72 h of admission, using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), which classifies patients into three categories: Severely malnourished, Mildly/moderately malnourished, and Normal/well-nourished. Anthropometric measurements like Body Mass Index (BMI), Triceps skin-fold thickness (TSF), and Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) were also performed. Patients were followed-up during hospital stay and 30 days after discharge through telephonic interview, and their final diagnosis, comorbidities, and cause of death were noted. Multivariate logistic regression and cox regression model were used to determine if the nutritional status at admission independently impacted mortality at one month. Results. The prevalence of malnourishment by SGA in our study was 67.3% among 395 hospitalized patients, of which 155 patients (39.2%) were moderately malnourished, and 111 (28.1%) were severely malnourished. Of 395 patients, 61 patients (15.4%) expired, of which 30 died in the hospital, and 31 died within 1 month of discharge from hospital. On univariate analysis, malnourished patients had significantly higher morality (24.3% in 111 Cat C patients) than well-nourished patients (10.1% in 129 Cat A patients), with OR 9.17, p-value 0.007. On multivariate logistic regression, age and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were independently associated with mortality. Higher CCI indicates higher burden of comorbidities on admission, and the CCI in the expired patient group (mean=4.38) was significantly higher than that of the alive cohort (mean=2.85). Though malnutrition significantly contributed to higher mortality on univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor of outcome on multivariate logistic regression. Length of hospitalisation was also longer in the malnourished group (mean= 9.4 d) compared to the well-nourished group (mean= 8.03 d) with a trend towards significance (p=0.061). None of the anthropometric measurements like BMI, MUAC, or TSF showed any association with mortality or length of hospitalisation. Inference. The results of our study highlight the issue of hospital malnutrition in medicine wards and reiterate that malnutrition contributes significantly to patient outcomes. We found that SGA performs better than anthropometric measurements in assessing under-nutrition. We are of the opinion that the heterogeneity of the study population by diagnosis was probably the primary reason why malnutrition by SGA was not found to be an independent risk factor for mortality. Strategies to identify high-risk patients at admission and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Keywords: hospitalization outcome, length of hospital stay, mortality, malnutrition, subjective global assessment (SGA)

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Authors: Ollie Hall, Salma ElSayed

Abstract:

Affective adaptation is a novel way for game designers to add an extra layer of engagement to their productions. When player’s emotions factor in game design, endless possibilities for creative gameplay emerge. Whilst gaining popularity, existing affective game research mostly runs controlled experiments carried in restrictive settings and relies on one or more specialist devices for measuring a player’s emotional state. These conditions, albeit effective, are not necessarily realistic. Moreover, the simplified narrative and intrusive wearables may not be suitable for the average player. This exploratory study investigates delivering an immersive affective experience in the wild with minimal requirements in an attempt for the average developer to reach the average player. A puzzle game is created with a rich narrative and creative mechanics. It employs both explicit and implicit adaptation and only requires a web camera. Participants played the game on their own machines in various settings. Whilst it was rated feasible, very engaging, and enjoyable, it remains questionable whether a fully immersive experience was delivered due to the limited sample size.

Keywords: affective games, dynamic adaptation, emotion recognition, game design

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Authors: Helen Frialde-Dupale

Abstract:

Critical thinking Index (CTI) of 150 third year college students from five State Colleges and Universities (SUCs) in Region I were determined. Only students with Grade Point Average (GPA) of at least 2.0 from four general classification of degree courses, namely: Education, Arts and Sciences, Engineering and Agriculture were included. Specific problem No.1 dealt with the profile variables, namely: age, sex, degree course, monthly family income, number of siblings, high school graduated from, grade point average, personality type, highest educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. Problem No. 2 determined the critical thinking index among the respondents. Problem No. 3 investigated whether or not there are significant differences in the critical thinking index among the respondents across the profile variables. While problem No.4 determined whether or not there are significant relationship between the critical thinking index and selected profile variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average of the respondents. Finally, on problem No. 5, the critical thinking instrument which obtained the lowest rates, were used as basis for outlining an intervention program for enhancing critical thinking index (CTI) of students. The following null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance: there are no significant differences in the critical thinking index of the third college students across the profile variables; there are no significant relationships between the critical thinking index of the respondents and selected variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average.

Keywords: attitude as critical thinker, critical thinking applied, critical thinking index, self-perception as critical thinker

Procedia PDF Downloads 506