Search results for: cost observation

Authors: Kazuhisa Koda, Tsutomu Kobayashi, Rebecca Lorennji, Alington Robert, Halston DeBrum, Julious Lucky, Paul Paul

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Atolls are low-lying small islands with highly permeable ground that does not allow rivers and lakes to develop. As the water resources on these atolls basically rely on precipitation, groundwater becomes a very important water resource during droughts. Freshwater lenses develop as groundwater on relatively large atoll islands and play a key role in the stable water supply. Atoll islands in the Pacific Ocean sometimes suffer from drought due to El Nino. The global warming effects are noticeable, particularly on atoll islands. The Republic of the Marshall Islands in Oceania is burdened with the problems common to atoll islands. About half of its population lives in the capital, Majuro, and securing water resources for these people is a crucial issue. There is a freshwater lens on the largest, Laura Island, which serves as a water source for the downtown area. A serious drought that occurred in 1998 resulted in excessive water intake from the freshwater lens on Laura Island causing up-coning. Up-coning mixes saltwater into groundwater pumped from water-intake wells. Because up-coning makes the freshwater lens unusable, there was a need to investigate the freshwater lens on Laura Island. In this study, we observed the electrical conductivities of the groundwater at different depths in existing monitoring wells to determine the total storage volume of the freshwater lens on Laura Island from 2010 to 2013. Our results indicated that most of the groundwater that seeped into the freshwater lens had flowed out into the sea.

Keywords: Atoll islands, drought, El-Nino, freshwater lens, groundwater observation

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Authors: Youssef Mazloum, Haytham Sayah, Maroun Nemer

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The penetration of renewable energy sources into the electric grid is significantly increasing. However, the intermittence of these sources breaks the balance between supply and demand for electricity. Hence, the importance of the energy storage technologies, they permit restoring the balance and reducing the drawbacks of intermittence of the renewable energies. This paper discusses the modeling and the cost-effectiveness of an isobaric adiabatic compressed air energy storage (IA-CAES) system. The proposed system is a combination among a compressed air energy storage (CAES) system with pumped hydro storage system and thermal energy storage system. The aim of this combination is to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional CAES system such as the losses due to the storage pressure variation, the loss of the compression heat and the use of fossil fuel sources. A steady state model is developed to perform an energy and exergy analyses of the IA-CAES system and calculate the distribution of the exergy losses in the latter system. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to estimate the effects of some key parameters on the system’s efficiency, such as the pinch of the heat exchangers, the isentropic efficiency of the rotating machinery and the pressure losses. The conducted sensitivity analysis is a local analysis since the sensibility of each parameter changes with the variation of the other parameters. Therefore, an exergoeconomic study is achieved as well as a cost optimization in order to reduce the electricity cost produced during the production phase. The optimizer used is OmOptim which is a genetic algorithms based optimizer.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness, Exergoeconomic analysis, isobaric adiabatic compressed air energy storage (IA-CAES) system, thermodynamic modeling

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Authors: Sung Ho Oh

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The advanced traffic lights, the system of traffic information collection and provision, the CCTVs for traffic control, and the traffic information center were installed in Asuncion, capital of Paraguay. After pre-post comparison of the installation, significant changes were found. Even though the traffic volumes were increased, travel speed was higher, so that travel time from origin to destination was decreased. the saving values for travel time, gas cost, and environmental cost are about 47 million US dollars per year. Satisfaction survey results for the installation were presented with statistical significance analysis.

Keywords: advanced transport management systems, effectiveness, Paraguay, traffic lights

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Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

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Authors: Yongjian Du, Jinhua Sun, Kim M. Liew, Huahua Xiao

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Optimal allocation of emergency resources before a disaster is of great importance for emergency response. In reality, the pre-protection for a single critical node where accidents may occur is common. In this study, a model is developed to determine location and inventory decisions of multiple emergency resources among a set of candidate stations to minimize the total cost based on the constraints of budgetary and capacity. The total cost includes the economic accident loss which is accorded with probability distribution of time and the warehousing cost of resources which is increasing over time. A ratio is set to measure the degree of a storage station only serving the target node that becomes larger with the decrease of the distance between them. For the application of linear program, it is assumed that the length of travel time to the accident scene of emergency resources has a linear relationship with the economic accident loss. A computational experiment is conducted to illustrate how the proposed model works, and the results indicate its effectiveness and practicability.

Keywords: emergency response, integer linear program, multiple emergency resources, pre-allocation decisions, single potential accident node

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Authors: Shivakumar M, Leslie Edward S Lewis, Shashikala Devadiga, Sonia Khurana

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Introduction: Methylxanthines are used for the treatment of AOP, to facilitate extubation and as a prophylactic agent to prevent apnea. Though the popularity of Caffeine has risen, it is expensive in a resource constrained developing countries like India. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Caffeine compared with Aminophylline treatment for AOP with respect to additional ventilatory resource utilized in different birth weight categorization. Design, Settings and Participants – Single centered, retrospective economic evaluation was done. Participants included preterm newborns with < 34 completed weeks of gestation age that were recruited under an Indian Council of Medical Research funded randomized clinical trial. Per protocol data was included from Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India between April 2012 and December 2014. Exposure: Preterm neonates were randomly allocated to either Caffeine or Aminophylline as per the trial protocol. Outcomes and Measures – We assessed surfactant requirement, duration of Invasive and Non-Invasive Ventilation, Total Methylxanthine cost and additional cost for respiratory support bared by the payers per day during hospital stay. For the purpose of this study Newborns were stratified as Category A – < 1000g, Category B – 1001 to 1500g and Category C – 1501 to 2500g. Results: Total 146 (Caffeine -72 and Aminophylline – 74) babies with Mean ± SD gestation age of 29.63 ± 1.89 weeks were assessed. 32.19% constitute of Category A, 55.48% were B and 12.33% were C. The difference in median duration of additional NIV and IMV support was statistically insignificant. However 60% of neonates who received Caffeine required additional surfactant therapy (p=0.02). The total median (IQR) cost of Caffeine was significantly high with Rs.10535 (Q3-6317.50, Q1-15992.50) where against Aminophylline cost was Rs.352 (Q3-236, Q1-709) (p < 0.001). The additional costs spent on respiratory support per day in neonates on either Methylxanthines were found to be statistically insignificant in the entire weight based category of our study. Whereas in Category B, the median O2 charges per day were found to have more in Caffeine treated newborns (p=0.05) with border line significance. In category A, providing one day NIV or IMV support significantly increases the unit log cost of Caffeine by 13.6% (CI – 95% ranging from 4 to 24; p=0.005) over log cost of Aminophylline. Conclusion: Cost of Caffeine is expensive than Aminophylline. It was found to be equally efficacious in reducing the number duration of NIV or IMV support. However adjusted with the NIV and IMV days of support, neonates fall in category A and category B who were on Caffeine pays excess amount of respiratory charges per day over aminophylline. In perspective of resource poor settings Aminophylline is cost saving and economically approachable.

Keywords: methylxanthines include caffeine and aminophylline, AOP (apnea of prematurity), IMV (invasive mechanical ventilation), NIV (non invasive ventilation), category a – <1000g, category b – 1001 to 1500g and category c – 1501 to 2500g

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Authors: Ridoy Das, Myriam Neaimeh, Yue Wang, Ghanim Putrus

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Electric vehicles are a popular transportation medium renowned for potential environmental benefits. However, large and uncontrolled charging volumes can impact distribution networks negatively. Smart charging is widely recognized as an efficient solution to achieve both improved renewable energy integration and grid relief. Nevertheless, different decision-makers may pursue diverse and conflicting objectives. In this context, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization framework to control electric vehicle charging to achieve both energy cost reduction and peak shaving. A weighted-sum method is developed due to its intuitiveness and efficiency. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to investigate the impact of uncertain electric vehicle driving patterns and provide decision-makers with a robust outcome in terms of prospective cost and network loading. The results demonstrate that there is a conflict between energy cost efficiency and peak shaving, with the decision-makers needing to make a collaborative decision.

Keywords: electric vehicles, multi-objective optimization, uncertainty, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng

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Leather industry is the most important traditional industry to provide the leather products in the world for thousand years. The fierce global competitive environment and common awareness of global carbon reduction make livestock supply quantities falling, salt and wet blue leather material reduces and the price skyrockets significantly. Exchange rate fluctuation led sales revenue decreasing which due to the differences of export exchanges and compresses the overall profitability of leather industry. This paper applies activity-based benefit assessment approach to build up fitness fur input mixed model, fur is Wet Blue, which concerned with four key factors: the output rate of wet blue, unit cost of wet blue, yield rate and grade level of Wet Blue to achieve the low cost strategy under given unit price of leather product condition of the company. The research findings indicate that applying this model may improve the input cost structure, decrease numbers of leather product inventories and to raise the competitive advantages of the enterprise in the future.

Keywords: activity-based benefit assessment approach, input mixed, output rate, wet blue

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Authors: Vinod B. Suryawanshi, Ajit D. Kelkar

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Glass fiber reinforced composites materials, due their unique properties such as high mechanical strength to weight ratio, corrosion resistance, and impact resistance have huge potential as structural materials in automotive, construction and transportation applications. However, these properties often come at higher cost owing to complex design methods, difficult manufacturing processes and raw material cost. In this paper, a cost effective design and manufacturing approach for a composite cantilever beam structure is presented. A constant stress (variable cross section) beam concept has been used to design and optimize the shape of composite cantilever beam and thus obtain the reduction in material used. The variable cross section beam was fabricated from the glass epoxy prepregs using cost effective out of autoclave process. The drop ply technique has been successfully used to obtain the variation in the cross section along the span of the beam. In order to test the beam and validate the design, the beam was subjected to different end loads. Strain gauges were mounted along the length of the beam to obtain strains in the beam at different sections and loads. The strain values were used to calculate the flexural strength and bending stresses in the beam. The stresses obtained through strain measurements from the experiment were found to be uniform along the span of the beam, and thus validates the design. Finally, the finite element model for the constant stress beam was developed using commercial finite element simulation software. It was observed that the simulation results agreed very well with the experimental results.

Keywords: beams, composites, constant cross-section, structures

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Authors: Issa M. Hweidi, Saba W. Al-Ibraheem

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This study aimed to assess the increased hospital length of stay and healthcare costs associated with SSIs among ventriculoperitoneal shunting surgery patients in Jordan. This study adopted a retrospective and nested 1:1 matched case-control design. A non-probability convenient sample of 48 VP shunt patients was recruited for the purpose of the study. The targeted groups of the study basically used to cross-match the variables investigated to minimize the risk of confounding. Information was extracted from the text of patients' electronic health records. As compared to the non-SSI group, the SSI group had an extra mean healthcare cost of $13,696.53 (p=0.001) and longer hospital length of stay (22.64 mean additional days). Furthermore, Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumonia were identified as being the most predominant causative agents of SSIs. The results of this study may provide baseline data for national and regional benchmarking to evaluate the quality of care provided to likewise patients. Adherence to infection control strategies and protocols considering new surveillance methods of SSIs is encouraged.

Keywords: ventriculoperitoneal shunt, health care cost, length of stay, neurosurgery, surgical site infections

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Authors: Mohammed Russedul Islam, Shah M. Muniruzzaman, M. Kamrul-Al-Masud, Syed Sadat Morshed

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Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. According to scientists it is predicted that temperature will raise 1-3% and precipitation 20% by 2050 in Bangladesh. Increased temperature and precipitation will deteriorate pavement structure in an accelerated rate. The study has found that pavement life will reduce significantly due to rise in temperature and precipitation in in a coastal road in Bangladesh. It will cause to increase the maintenance cost of the road. The study has found that reduction in pavement life will be caused due the decrease in stiffness and strength parameters of the pavement material due to high temperature and precipitation. It has found that use of new material costlier than the existing one will be necessary to prevent the reduction of pavement life. Eventually it will increase the re-construction cost of the road. The study has used mechanistic-empirical analysis method with a software GAMES (General analysis on multi-layered elastic systems) to find out the effect of temperature and precipitation rise on the pavement life. The study will help to guide road engineers of Bangladesh to prepare in advance to fight with the climate change effect.

Keywords: climate change, maintenance cost, mechanistic-empirical method, pavement life

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Authors: S. Abeysekera, M. Bazghaleh, M. P. L. Ooi, Y. C. Kuang, V. Kalavally

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Smart LED-based lighting systems have significant advantages over traditional lighting systems due to their capability of producing tunable light spectrums on demand. The main challenge in the design of smart lighting systems is to produce sufficient luminous flux and uniformly accurate output spectrum for sufficiently broad area. This paper outlines the programmable LED lighting system design principles of design to achieve the two aims. In this paper, a seven-channel design using low-cost discrete LEDs is presented. Optimization algorithms are used to calculate the number of required LEDs, LEDs arrangements and optimum LED separation distance. The results show the illumination uniformity for each channel. The results also show that the maximum color error is below 0.0808 on the CIE1976 chromaticity scale. In conclusion, this paper considered the simulation and design of a seven-channel programmable lighting system using low-cost discrete LEDs to produce sufficient luminous flux and uniformly accurate output spectrum for sufficiently broad area.

Keywords: light spectrum control, LEDs, smart lighting, programmable LED lighting system

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Authors: Ayoade Adeyemi, Leo Nherera, Paul Trueman, Antje Emmermann

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Background and objectives: Radiofrequency (RF) generated plasma chondroplasty is considered a promising treatment alternative to mechanical debridement (MD) with a shaver. The aim of the study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing costs and outcomes following COBLATION chondroplasty versus mechanical debridement in patients with knee pain associated with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III focal lesion of the medial femoral condyle from a payer perspective. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed comparing economic and clinical outcomes between the two treatment options in German patients following knee chondroplasty. Revision rates based on the frequency of repeat arthroscopy, osteotomy and conversion to total knee replacement, reimbursement costs and outcomes data over a 4-year time horizon were extracted from published literature. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainties around model parameters. Threshold analysis determined the revision rate at which model results change. All costs were reported in 2016 euros, future costs were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Results: Over a 4 year period, COBLATION chondroplasty resulted in an overall net saving cost of €461 due to a lower revision rate of 14% compared to 48% with MD. Threshold analysis showed that both options were associated with comparable costs if COBLATION revision rate was assumed to increase up to 23%. The initial procedure costs for COBLATION were higher compared to MD and outcome scores were significantly improved at 1 and 4 years post-operation versus MD. Conclusion: The analysis shows that COBLATION chondroplasty is a cost-effective option compared to mechanical debridement in the treatment of patients with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III defect of the medial femoral condyle.

Keywords: COBLATION, cost-effectiveness, knee chondroplasty, mechanical debridement

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Authors: Jhiamluka Zservando Solano Velasquez, Raul Palma, Alejandro Calderon, Servio Paguada, Erick Marin, Kellyn Funes, Hana Sandoval, Oscar Hernandez

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Background: Screening cardiac conditions in primary care in developing countries can be challenging, and Honduras is not the exception. One of the main limitations is the underfunding of the Healthcare System in general, causing conventional ECG acquisition to become a secondary priority. Objective: Development of a low-cost ECG to improve screening of arrhythmias in primary care and communication with a specialist in secondary and tertiary care. Methods: Design a portable, pocket-size low-cost 3 lead ECG (Handy EKG). The device is autonomous and has Wi-Fi/Bluetooth connectivity options. A mobile app was designed which can access online servers with machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence to learn from the data and aid clinicians in their interpretation of readings. Additionally, the device would use the online servers to transfer patient’s data and readings to a specialist in secondary and tertiary care. 50 randomized patients volunteer to participate to test the device. The patients had no previous cardiac-related conditions, and readings were taken. One reading was performed with the conventional ECG and 3 readings with the Handy EKG using different lead positions. This project was possible thanks to the funding provided by the National Autonomous University of Honduras. Results: Preliminary results show that the Handy EKG performs readings of the cardiac activity similar to those of a conventional electrocardiograph in lead I, II, and III depending on the position of the leads at a lower cost. The wave and segment duration, amplitude, and morphology of the readings were similar to the conventional ECG, and interpretation was possible to conclude whether there was an arrhythmia or not. Two cases of prolonged PR segment were found in both ECG device readings. Conclusion: Using a Frugal innovation approach can allow lower income countries to develop innovative medical devices such as the Handy EKG to fulfill unmet needs at lower prices without compromising effectiveness, safety, and quality. The Handy EKG provides a solution for primary care screening at a much lower cost and allows for convenient storage of the readings in online servers where clinical data of patients can then be accessed remotely by Cardiology specialists.

Keywords: low-cost hardware, portable electrocardiograph, prototype, remote healthcare

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Nur Azzammudin Rahmat, Ismail Musirin, Ahmad Farid Abidin

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Economic load dispatch is performed by the utilities in order to determine the best generation level at the most feasible operating cost. In order to guarantee satisfying energy delivery to the consumer, a precise calculation of generation level is required. In order to achieve accurate and practical solution, several considerations such as prohibited operating zones, valve-point effect and ramp-rate limit need to be taken into account. However, these considerations cause the optimization to become complex and difficult to solve. This research focuses on the valve-point effect that causes ripple in the fuel-cost curve. This paper also proposes Differential Evolution Immunized Ant Colony Optimization (DEIANT) in solving economic load dispatch problem with valve-point effect. Comparative studies involving DEIANT, EP and ACO are conducted on IEEE 30-Bus RTS for performance assessments. Results indicate that DEIANT is superior to the other compared methods in terms of calculating lower operating cost and power loss.

Keywords: ant colony optimization (ACO), differential evolution (DE), differential evolution immunized ant colony optimization (DEIANT), economic load dispatch (ELD)

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Authors: Nana Segu Acquaah-Harrison, James Osei Mensah, Richard Aidoo, David Amponsah, Amy Buah, Gilbert Aboagye

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The study aimed at assessing the feasibility of commercial meat rabbit production in the Kumasi Metropolis of Ghana. Structured and unstructured questionnaires were utilized in obtaining information from two hundred meat consumers and 15 meat rabbit farmers. Data were analyzed using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)/Profitability Index (PI) technique, percentages and chi-square contingency test. The study found that the current demand for rabbit meat is low (36%). The desirable nutritional attributes of rabbit meat and other socio economic factors of meat consumers make the potential demand for rabbit meat high (69%). It was estimated that GH¢5,292 (approximately $ 2672) was needed as a start-up capital for a 40-doe unit meat rabbit farm in Kumasi Metropolis. The cost of breeding animals, housing and equipment formed 12.47%, 53.97% and 24.87% respectively of the initial estimated capital. A Net Present Value of GH¢ 5,910.75 (approximately $ 2984) was obtained at the end of the fifth year, with an internal rate return and profitability index of 70% and 1.12 respectively. The major constraints identified in meat rabbit production were low price of rabbit meat, shortage of fodder, pest and diseases, high cost of capital, high cost of operating materials and veterinary care. Based on the analysis, it was concluded that meat rabbit production is feasible in the Kumasi Metropolis of Ghana. The study recommends embarking on mass advertisement; farmer association and adapting to new technologies in the production process will help to enhance productivity.

Keywords: feasibility, commercial meat rabbit, production, Kumasi, Ghana

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Authors: Emanuel Teixeira, Anderson Ramos, Marisa Lourenço, Fernando J. Velez, Jon M. Peha

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This article discusses the benefit cost analysis aspects of millimetre wavebands (mmWaves) and Super High Frequency (SHF). The devaluation along the distance of the carrier-to-noise-plus-interference ratio with the coverage distance is assessed by considering two different path loss models, the two-slope urban micro Line-of-Sight (UMiLoS) for the SHF band and the modified Friis propagation model, for frequencies above 24 GHz. The equivalent supported throughput is estimated at the 5.62, 28, 38, 60 and 73 GHz frequency bands and the influence of carrier-to-noise-plus-interference ratio in the radio and network optimization process is explored. Mostly owing to the lessening caused by the behaviour of the two-slope propagation model for SHF band, the supported throughput at this band is higher than at the millimetre wavebands only for the longest cell lengths. The benefit cost analysis of these pico-cellular networks was analysed for regular cellular topologies, by considering the unlicensed spectrum. For shortest distances, we can distinguish an optimal of the revenue in percentage terms for values of the cell length, R ≈ 10 m for the millimeter wavebands and for longest distances an optimal of the revenue can be observed at R ≈ 550 m for the 5.62 GHz. It is possible to observe that, for the 5.62 GHz band, the profit is slightly inferior than for millimetre wavebands, for the shortest Rs, and starts to increase for cell lengths approximately equal to the ratio between the break-point distance and the co-channel reuse factor, achieving a maximum for values of R approximately equal to 550 m.

Keywords: millimetre wavebands, SHF band, SINR, cost benefit analysis, 5G

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Authors: Virginie Hergault, Siham Chebbah, Bertrand Frere

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Following in-house objectives, Central laboratory of Paris police Prefecture conducted a general review on models and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes used to simulate pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere. Starting from that review and considering main features of Large Eddy Simulation, Central Laboratory Of Paris Police Prefecture (LCPP) postulates that the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) model, from National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), should be well suited for air pollutant dispersion modeling. This paper focuses on the implementation and the evaluation of FDS in the frame of the European COST ES1006 Action. This action aimed at quantifying the performance of modeling approaches. In this paper, the CUTE dataset carried out in the city of Hamburg, and its mock-up has been used. We have performed a comparison of FDS results with wind tunnel measurements from CUTE trials on the one hand, and, on the other, with the models results involved in the COST Action. The most time-consuming part of creating input data for simulations is the transfer of obstacle geometry information to the format required by SDS. Thus, we have developed Python codes to convert automatically building and topographic data to the FDS input file. In order to evaluate the predictions of FDS with observations, statistical performance measures have been used. These metrics include the fractional bias (FB), the normalized mean square error (NMSE) and the fraction of predictions within a factor of two of observations (FAC2). As well as the CFD models tested in the COST Action, FDS results demonstrate a good agreement with measured concentrations. Furthermore, the metrics assessment indicate that FB and NMSE meet the tolerance acceptable.

Keywords: numerical simulations, atmospheric dispersion, cost ES1006 action, CFD model, cute experiments, wind tunnel data, numerical results

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Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

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On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

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Authors: Demet Ozgur-Unluakin, Busenur Turkali, Ayse Karacaorenli

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Maintenance strategies can be classified into two types, which are reactive and proactive, with respect to the time of the failure and maintenance. If the maintenance activity is done after a breakdown, it is called reactive maintenance. On the other hand, proactive maintenance, which is further divided as preventive and predictive, focuses on maintaining components before a failure occurs to prevent expensive halts. Recently, the number of interacting components in a system has increased rapidly and therefore, the structure of the systems have become more complex. This situation has made it difficult to provide the right maintenance decisions. Herewith, determining effective decisions has played a significant role. In multi-component systems, many methodologies and strategies can be applied when a component or a system has already broken down or when it is desired to identify and avoid proactively defects that could lead to future failure. This study focuses on the comparison of various maintenance strategies on a multi-component dynamic system. Components in the system are hidden, although there exists partial observability to the decision maker and they deteriorate in time. Several predefined policies under corrective, preventive and predictive maintenance strategies are considered to minimize the total maintenance cost in a planning horizon. The policies are simulated via Dynamic Bayesian Networks on a multi-component system with different policy parameters and cost scenarios, and their performances are evaluated. Results show that when the difference between the corrective and proactive maintenance cost is low, none of the proactive maintenance policies is significantly better than the corrective maintenance. However, when the difference is increased, at least one policy parameter for each proactive maintenance strategy gives significantly lower cost than the corrective maintenance.

Keywords: decision making, dynamic Bayesian networks, maintenance, multi-component systems, reliability

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Authors: Haibo Zhao, Thomas Andre, Katherine Avery, Alper Kiziltas, Deborah Mielewski

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Silica aerogels were fabricated through a modified rapid supercritical extraction (RSCE) process. The silica aerogels were made using a tetramethyl orthosilicate precursor and then placed in a hot press and brought to the supercritical point of the solvent, ethanol. In order to control the pressure release without a pressure controller, a needle valve was used. The resulting aerogels were then characterized for their physical and chemical properties and compared to silica aerogels created using similar methods. The aerogels fabricated using this modified RSCE method were found to have similar properties to those in other papers using the unmodified RSCE method. Silica aerogel infused glass blanket composite, graphene reinforced silica aerogel composite were also successfully fabricated by this new method. The modified RSCE process and system is a prototype for better gas outflow control with a lower cost of equipment setup. Potentially, this process could be evolved to a continuous low-cost high-volume production process to meet automotive requirements.

Keywords: aerogel, automotive, rapid supercritical extraction process, low cost production

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Authors: Saidulu Gadari, Manoj Kumar Yadav, V. K. Satheesh, Debasis Bhattacharyya, S. S. V. Ramakumar, Subhajit Sarkar

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Most Fluid Catalytic Cracking Units (FCCUs) are big profit makers and hence, always operated with several constraints. It is the primary source for production of gasoline, light olefins as petrochemical feedstocks, feedstock for alkylate & oxygenates, LPG, etc. in a refinery. Increasing unit capacity and improving product yields as well as qualities such as gasoline RON have dramatic impact on the refinery economics. FCCUs are often debottlenecked significantly beyond their original design capacities. Depending upon the unit configuration, operating conditions, and feedstock quality, the FCC unit can have a variety of bottlenecks. While some of these are aimed to increase the feed rate, improve the conversion, etc., the others are aimed to improve the reliability of the equipment or overall unit. Apart from investment cost, the other factors considered generally while evaluating the debottlenecking options are shutdown days, faster payback, risk on investment, etc. A low-cost solution such as replacement of feed injectors, air distributor, steam distributors, spent catalyst distributor, efficient cyclone system, etc. are the preferred way of upgrading FCCU. It also has lower lead time from idea inception to implementation. This paper discusses various bottlenecks generally encountered in FCCU and presents a case study on improvement of performance of one of the FCCUs in IndianOil through implementation of cost-effective technical solution including use of improved internals in Reactor-Regeneration (R-R) section. After implementation reduction in regenerator air, gas superficial velocity in regenerator and cyclone velocities by about 10% and improvement of CLO yield from 10 to 6 wt% have been achieved. By ensuring proper pressure balance and optimum immersion of cyclone dipleg in the standpipe, frequent formation of perforations in regenerator cyclones could be addressed which in turn improved the unit on-stream factor.

Keywords: FCC, low-cost, revamp, debottleneck, internals, distributors, cyclone, dipleg

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Authors: Mende Mensa Sorato, Majid Davari, Abbas Kebriaeezadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Tamiru Shibru, Behzad Fatemi

Abstract:

Markov model, like cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model based simulation, is being used for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. Stroke, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and all-cause mortality were included in this model. Hypertension is a risk factor for a number of vascular and cardiac complications and CVD outcomes. Objective: This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the comprehensiveness of this model across different regions globally. Methods: We searched articles written in the English language from PubMed/Medline, Ovid/Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google scholar with a systematic search query. Results: Thirteen cohort studies involving a total of 2,165,770 (1,666,554 hypertensive adult population and 499,226 adults with treatment-resistant hypertension) were included in this scoping review. Hypertension is clearly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality, unstable angina, stable angina, MI, heart failure (HF), sudden cardiac death, transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracranial hemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurism (AAA). Association between HF and hypertension is variable across regions. Treatment resistant hypertension is associated with a higher relative risk of developing major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality when compared with non-resistant hypertension. However, it is not included in the previous CVD policy model. Conclusion: The CVD policy model used can be used in most regions for the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. However, hypertension is highly associated with HF in Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is important to consider HF in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in these regions. We do not suggest the inclusion of PAD and AAA in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment due to a lack of sufficient evidence. Researchers should consider the effect of treatment-resistant hypertension either by including it in the basic model or during setting the model assumptions.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease policy model, cost-effectiveness analysis, hypertension, systematic review, twelve major cardiovascular events

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Authors: Paul C. Njoku, Archana Swati Njoku

Abstract:

The study deals with the development of a mathematical model to characterize the oil production in Nigeria. This is calculated by initiating the dynamics of oil production in million barrels revenue plan cost of oil production in million nairas and unit cost of production from 1974-1982 in the contest of the federal Republic of Nigeria. This country export oil to other countries as well as importing specialized crude. The transport network from origin/destination tij to pairs is taking into account simulation runs, optimization have been considered in this study.

Keywords: mathematical oil model development dynamics, Nigeria, characterization barrels, dynamics of oil production

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Abdulrahman H. Alrashidi

Abstract:

Kuwait Oil Company provides health care services through Ahmadi hospital for oil sector employee and their families. Due to increasing number of entitled patients in Ahmadi hospital, the company starts health insurance option in 2010. In addition, a new Ahmadi hospital decided to build to accumulate all entitled patients. Operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital investigated in this research. In order to maintain the high quality of medical services and satisfaction rate among oil sector community and reducing the operation cost. Six operation and management options evaluated in order to implement in new Ahmadi hospital. Qualitative Risk assessment method used to investigate proposed options for operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital. Evaluation criteria consist of quality of medical services, operation cost and satisfaction rate among oil sector community. Results show that using the same operation and management system in existing Ahmadi hospital with new Ahmadi hospital will bring cost higher. This approach brings risk to KOC. Results from risk assessment show that partially operated new Ahmadi hospital is the best opportunity to meet the objectives of KOC’s medical group.

Keywords: Kuwait Oil Company, new Ahmadi hospital, operation and management, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: R. Sivasamy, G. Paulraj, S. Kalaimani, N.Thillaigovindan

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For profitable businesses, queues are double-edged swords and hence the pain of long wait times in a queue often frustrates customers. This paper suggests a technical way of reducing the pain of lines through a Poisson M/M1, M2/2 queueing system operated by two heterogeneous servers with an objective of minimising the mean sojourn time of customers served under the queue discipline ‘First Come First Served with an ‘m’ policy, i.e. FCFS-m policy’. Arrivals to the system form a Poisson process of rate λ and are served by two exponential servers. The service times of successive customers at server ‘j’ are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and each of it is exponentially distributed with rate parameter μj (j=1, 2). The primary condition for implementing the queue discipline ‘FCFS-m policy’ on these service rates μj (j=1, 2) is that either (m+1) µ2 > µ1> m µ2 or (m+1) µ1 > µ2> m µ1 must be satisfied. Further waiting customers prefer the server-1 whenever it becomes available for service, and the server-2 should be installed if and only if the queue length exceeds the value ‘m’ as a threshold. Steady-state results on queue length and waiting time distributions have been obtained. A simple way of tracing the optimal service rate μ*2 of the server-2 is illustrated in a specific numerical exercise to equalize the average queue length cost with that of the service cost. Assuming that the server-1 has to dynamically adjust the service rates as μ1 during the system size is strictly less than T=(m+2) while μ2=0, and as μ1 +μ2 where μ2>0 if the system size is more than or equal to T, corresponding steady state results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been deduced from those of M/M1,M2/2 queues. To conclude this investigation has a viable application, results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been used in processing of those waiting messages into a single computer node and to measure the power consumption by the node.

Keywords: two heterogeneous servers, M/M1, M2/2 queue, service cost and queue length cost, M/M1+M2/1 queue

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Muhammad Affan, Muhammad Ilyas Raza, Muhammad Harris Hashmi

Abstract:

This work is attributed to the battery management unit design of student Satellites under Pakistan National Student Satellite Program (PNSSP). The aim has been to design a customized, low-cost, efficient, reliable and less-complex battery management scheme for the Satellite. Nowadays, Lithium Ion (Li-ion) batteries have become the de-facto standard for remote applications, especially for satellites. Li-ion cells are selected for secondary storage. The design also addresses Li-ion safety requirements by monitoring, balancing and protecting cells for safe and prolonged operation. Accurate voltage measurement of individual cells was the main challenge because all the actions triggered were based on the digital voltage measurement. For this purpose, a resistive-divider network is used to maintain simplicity and cost-effectiveness. To cater the problem of insufficient i/o pins on microcontroller, fast multiplexers and de-multiplexers were used. The discrepancy inherited in the given design is the dissipation of heat due to the dissipative resistors. However, it is still considered to be the optimum adoption, considering the simple and cost-effective nature of the passive balancing technique. Furthermore, it is a completely unique solution, customized to meet specific requirements. However, there is still an option for a more advanced and expensive design.

Keywords: satellite, battery module, passive balancing, dissipative

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Kusuma Palaprom

Abstract:

The aims of this research are: 1) to study Hmong ethnic group hill tribe’s way of life and community industrial management and 2) to bring the industrial management into the community. This is a Participatory Action Research (PAR) using qualitative and quantitative data. The findings are: 1) Way of living and learning from nature of Hmong ethnic group hill tribe bases on their cultural relic belief. Hmong‘s way of life or occupation is traditional agriculture which cannot be business because they cannot adopt the industrial management to the community economic innovation base on local wisdom. 2) Quality of life development using local wisdom cost is not worth. Hmong ethnic group hill tribe are lack of modern knowledge-managerial aspect and the application of local wisdom cost and 3) the government supports for Hmong’s developing of life quality are limited. Solving problem guidelines are: 1) to create awareness of ethnic group wisdom-industrial conservation. 2) Government policy need to give an opportunity and motivate ethnic group community to do the cultural-industrial conservation with industrial management process and local wisdom cost. In order to, improve the sustainability of quality of life.

Keywords: industrial management, highland community, community empowerment ethnic group

Procedia PDF Downloads 570

Authors: Guilherme Gorgulho, Carlos Roberto Camello Lima

Abstract:

Critical success factors (CSF) are used to design the practice of project management that can lead directly or indirectly to the success of the project. This management includes many elements that have to be synchronized in order to ensure the project on-time delivery, quality and the lowest possible cost. The objective of this work is to develop a proposal for evaluation of the FCS in lean manufacturing projects, and apply the evaluation in a pilot project. The results show that the use of continuous improvement programs in organizations brings benefits as the process cost reduction and improve productivity.

Keywords: continuous improvement, critical success factors (csf), lean thinking, project management

Procedia PDF Downloads 364