Search results for: setup period estimation

Authors: Mariana Thimotheo, Gabriel Carvalho Ripamonte, Marina De Almeida Nogueira, Silvia Camila Da Costa Aguiar, Marcelo Henrique Santana Ulian, Euclides Braga Malheiros, Isabel Cristina Boleli

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Beak plays a fundamental role in the hatching process of the chicks, since it is used for internal and external pipping. The present study examined whether the size of the beak influences the birth period of the broiler chicks in the hatching window. It was analyzed the beak size (length, height and width) of one-hundred twenty nine newly hatched chicks from light eggs (56.22-61.05g) and one-hundred twenty six chicks from heavy eggs (64.95-70.90g), produced by 38 and 45 weeks old broiler breeders (Cobb 500®), respectively. Egg incubation occurred at 37.5°C and 60% RH, with egg turning every hour. Length, height and width of the beaks were measured using a digital caliper (Zaas precision - digital caliper 6", 0.01mm) and the data expressed in millimeters. The beak length corresponded to distance between the tip of the beak and the rictus. The height of the beak was measured in the region of the culmen and its width in the region of the nostrils. Data were analyzed following a 3x2 factorial experimental design, being three birth periods within the hatching window (early: 471.78 to 485.42h, intermediate: 485.43 to 512.27h, and late: 512.28 to 528.72h) and two egg weights (light and heavy). There was a significant interaction between birth period and egg weight for beak height (P < 0.05), which was higher in the intermediate chicks from heavy eggs than in the other chicks from the same egg weight and chicks from light eggs (P < 0.05), that did not differ (P > 0.05). The beak length was influenced only for a birth period, and decreased through the hatch window (early < intermediate < late) (P < 0.05). The width of the beaks was influenced by both main factors, birth period and egg weight (P < 0.05). Early and intermediate chicks had similar beak width, but greater than late chicks, and chicks from heavy eggs presented greater beak width than chicks from light eggs (P < 0.05). In sum, the results show that chicks with longer beak hatch first and that beak length is an important variable for hatch period determination mainly for light eggs.

Keywords: beak dimensions, egg weight, hatching period, hatching window

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

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Authors: Aleksandar Zhelyazkov, Daniele Zonta, Helmut Wenzel, Peter Furtner

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In the current research structural health monitoring is considered for addressing the critical issue of post-earthquake damage detection. A non-standard approach for damage detection via acoustic emission is presented - acoustic emissions are monitored in the low frequency range (up to 120 Hz). Such emissions are termed high-frequency transients. Further a damage indicator defined as the Time-Ratio Damage Indicator is introduced. The indicator relies on time-instance measurements of damage initiation and deformation peaks. Based on the time-instance measurements a procedure for estimation of the maximum drift ratio is proposed. Monitoring data is used from a shaking-table test of a full-scale reinforced concrete bridge pier. Damage of the experimental column is successfully detected and the proposed damage indicator is calculated.

Keywords: acoustic emission, damage detection, shaking table test, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Suresh Palla, Kalpna Sharma, Gaurav Bhatnagar, S. K. Chaturvedi, B. N. Mohapatra

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Determining the content of free lime is especially important to judge reactivity of the raw materials and clinker quality. The free lime limit isn’t the same for all cements; it depends on several factors, especially the temperature reached during the cooking and the grain size distribution in cement after grinding. Estimation of free lime by conventional method is influenced by the presence of portlandite and misleads the actual free lime content in the clinker for quality check up conditions. To ensure the product quality according to the standard specifications in terms of within the quality limits or not, a reliable, precise, and very reproducible method to quantify the relative phase abundances in the Portland Cement clinker and Portland Cements is to use X-ray diffraction (XRD) in combination with the Rietveld method. In the present study, a methodology was proposed using XRD to validate the obtained results of free lime by conventional method. The XRD and TG/DTA results confirm the presence of portlandite in the clinker to take the decision on the obtained free lime results through conventional method.

Keywords: free lime, quantitative phase analysis, conventional method, x ray diffraction

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Authors: G. V. Vaniprabha, S. Madhusudhan, S. G. Jadhav

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The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of alcohol use, mode of suicide and extent of depression among 150 female commercial sex workers (CSWs) in Bangalore, India. After going through a short detoxification programme of two weeks, Karma yoga principles of Shrimad Bhagavad Gita were used as a tool for cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for a period of four weeks to maintain abstinence and help with their depression. A six month follow up indicated that they had maintained abstinence over that period and had not attempted suicide, either.

Keywords: alcohol dependence, depression, commercial sex workers, suicide

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Authors: Hamdy Elgohary, Majid Assas

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Estimation of lateral displacement and interstory drifts represent a major step in multistory frames design. In the preliminary design stage, it is essential to perform a fast check for the expected values of lateral deformations. This step will help to ensure the compliance of the expected values with the design code requirements. Also, in some cases during or after the detailed design stage, it may be required to carry fast check of lateral deformations by design reviewer. In the present paper, a parametric study is carried out on the factors affecting in the lateral displacements of multistory frame buildings. Based on the results of the parametric study, simplified empirical equations are recommended for the direct determination of the lateral deflection of multistory frames. The results obtained using the recommended equations have been compared with the results obtained by finite element analysis. The comparison shows that the proposed equations lead to good approximation for the estimation of lateral deflection of multistory RC frame buildings.

Keywords: lateral deflection, interstory drift, approximate analysis, multistory frames

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Authors: M. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, F. Abbasi-Davani, S. Zolghadri

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Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, compartmental model was used in order to estimate the human absorbed dose of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC from the biodistribution data in wild type rats. For this purpose, ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC was prepared under optimized conditions and its biodistribution was studied in male Syrian rats up to 168 h. Compartmental model was applied to mathematical description of the drug behaviour in tissue at different times. Dosimetric estimation of the complex was performed using radiation absorbed dose assessment resource (RADAR). The biodistribution data showed high accumulation in the adrenal and pancreas as the major expression sites for somatostatin receptor (SSTR). While kidneys as the major route of excretion receive 0.037 mSv/MBq, pancreas and adrenal also obtain 0.039 and 0.028 mSv/MBq. Due to the usage of this method, the points of accumulated activity data were enhanced, and further information of tissues uptake was collected that it will be followed by high (or improved) precision in dosimetric calculations.

Keywords: compartmental modeling, human absorbed dose, ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, Syrian rats

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Authors: Seungmin Chee

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This paper investigates which of the two arguments, conservatism or liquidation option, is a true underlying driver of the asymmetric slope coefficient result regarding the association between earnings and returns. The analysis of the relation between earnings and returns in four mutually exclusive settings segmented by ‘profits vs. losses’ and ‘positive returns vs. negative returns’ suggests that liquidation option rather than conservatism is likely to cause the asymmetric slope coefficient result. Furthermore, this paper documents the temporal changes between Basu period (1963-1990) and post-Basu period (1990-2005). Although no significant change in degree of conservatism or value relevance of losses is reported, stronger negative relation between losses and positive returns is observed in the post-Basu period. Separate regression analysis of each quintile based on the rankings of price to sales ratio and book to market ratio suggests that the strong negative relation is driven by growth firms.

Keywords: conservatism, earnings, liquidation option, returns

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Authors: Auwal Abubakar, Shazril Imran Shaukat, Noor Khairiah A. Karim, Mohammed Zakir Kassim, Gokula Kumar Appalanaido, Hafiz Mohd Zin

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Background: Voluntary deep inspiration breath-hold radiotherapy (vDIBH-RT) is an effective cardiac dose reduction technique during left breast radiotherapy. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of the implementation of the vDIBH technique among left breast cancer patients without the use of a special device such as a surface-guided imaging system. Methods: The vDIBH-RT technique was implemented among thirteen (13) left breast cancer patients at the Advanced Medical and Dental Institute (AMDI), Universiti Sains Malaysia. Breath-hold monitoring was performed based on breath-hold skin marks and laser light congruence observed on zoomed CCTV images from the control console during each delivery. The initial setup was verified using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) during breath-hold. Each field was delivered using multiple beam segments to allow a delivery time of 20 seconds, which can be tolerated by patients in breath-hold. The data were analysed using an in-house developed MATLAB algorithm. PTV margin was computed based on van Herk's margin recipe. Results: The setup error analysed from CBCT shows that the population systematic error in lateral (x), longitudinal (y), and vertical (z) axes was 2.28 mm, 3.35 mm, and 3.10 mm, respectively. Based on the CBCT image guidance, the Planning target volume (PTV) margin that would be required for vDIBH-RT using CCTV/Laser monitoring technique is 7.77 mm, 10.85 mm, and 10.93 mm in x, y, and z axes, respectively. Conclusion: It is feasible to safely implement vDIBH-RT among left breast cancer patients without special equipment. The breath-hold monitoring technique is cost-effective, radiation-free, easy to implement, and allows real-time breath-hold monitoring.

Keywords: vDIBH, cone beam computed tomography, radiotherapy, left breast cancer

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Authors: Elham Saraee, Saurabh Singh, Margrit Betke

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Evaluation of a person’s posture while exercising is important in physical therapy. During a therapy session, a physical therapist or a monitoring system must assure that the person is performing an exercise correctly to achieve the desired therapeutic effect. In this work, we introduce a system called POSTURECHECK for exercise assessment in physical therapy. POSTURECHECK assesses the posture of a person who is exercising with the Proficio robotic arm while being recorded by the Microsoft Kinect interface. POSTURECHECK extracts unique features from the person’s upper body during the exercise, and classifies the sequence of postures as correct or incorrect using Bayesian estimation and majority voting. If POSTURECHECK recognizes an incorrect posture, it specifies what the user can do to correct it. The result of our experiment shows that POSTURECHECK is capable of recognizing the incorrect postures in real time while the user is performing an exercise.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, majority voting, Microsoft Kinect, PostureCheck, Proficio robotic arm, upper body physical therapy

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Authors: Seongwon Im, Jimin Kim, Kyeongcheol Kim, Dong-Hoon Kim

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Cattle manure (CM) produced from farmhas been utilized to soils for increasing crop production owing to high nutrients content and effective microorganisms. Some cities with the concentrated activity of livestock industry have suffered from environmental problems, such as odorous gas emissions and soil and water pollution, caused by excessive use of compost. As an alternative option, the anaerobic digestion (AD) process can be utilized, which can reduce the volume of organic waste but also produce energy. According to Korea-Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (KMTIE), the energy potential of CM via biogas production was estimated to be 0.8 million TOE per year, which is higher than that of other organic wastes. However, limited energy is recovered since useful organic matter, capable of converting to biogas, may be degraded during the long storage period (1-6 months).In this study, the effect of storage period on biogas potential of CM was investigated. Compared to fresh CM (VS 14±1 g/L, COD 205±5 g/L, TKN 7.4±0.8 g/L, NH4+-N 1.5±0.1), old CM has higher organic (35-37%) and nitrogen content (50-100%) due to the drying process during storage. After stabilization period, biogas potential of 0.09 L CH4/g VS was obtained in R1 (old CM supplement) at HRT of 150-100 d, and it was decreased further to 0.06 L CH4/g VS at HRT of 80 d. The drop of pH and organic acids accumulation were not observed during the whole operation of R1. Ammonia stripping and pretreatment of CM were found to be not effective to increase CH4 yield. On the other hand, a sudden increase of biogas potential to 0.19-0.22 L CH4/g VS was achieved in R2 after changing feedstock to fresh CM. The expected reason for the low biogas potential of old CM might be related with the composition of organic matters in CM. Easily biodegradable organic matters in the fresh CM were contained in high concentration, butthey were removed by microorganisms during storing CM in a farm, resulting low biogas yield. This study implies that fresh storage is important to make AD process applicable for CM.

Keywords: storage period, cattle manure, biogas potential, microbial analysis

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Authors: U. Demir

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18th century which is the period of 'change' in the Ottoman Empire, affects the architecture as well, where the Classical period is left behind, architecture is differentiated in the form language. This change is especially noticeable in monumental buildings and thus manifested itself in the mosques. But, is it possible to talk about the structural context of the 'change' which has been occurred in decoration? The aim of this study is to investigate the changes and classical relations of the 18th century mosques through plan schedules and structure systems. This study focuses on the monumental mosques constructed during the reign of the three sultans who ruled in the second half of the century (Mustafa the 3rd 1757-1774, Abdülhamid the 1st 1774-1789 and Selim the 3rd). According to their construction years these are 'Ayazma, Laleli, Zeyneb Sultan, Fatih, Beylerbeyi, Şebsefa Kadın, Eyüb Sultan, Mihrişah Valide Sultan and Üsküdar-Selimiye' mosques. As a plan scheme, four mosques have a square or close to a rectangular square scheme, while the others have a rectangle scheme and showing the longitudinal development of the mihrab axis. This situation is widespread throughout the period. In addition to the longitudinal development plan, which is the general characteristic of the 18th century mosques, the use of the classical plan schemes continued in the same direction. Spatialization of the mihrab area was applied to the five mosques while other mosques were applied as niches on the wall surface. This situation is widespread in the period of the second half of the century. In the classical period, the lodges may be located at the back of the mosques interior, not interfering with the main worship area. In the period, the lodges were withdrawn from the main worship area. They are separated from the main interior with their own structural and covering systems. The plans seem to be formed as a result of the addition of lodge parts to the northern part of the Classical period mosques. The 18th century mosques are the constructions where the change of the architectural language and style can be observed easily. This change and the break from the classical period manifest themselves quickly in the structural elements, wall surface decorations, pencil work designs, small scale decor elements, motifs. The speed and intensity of change in the decor does not occur the same as in structural context. The mosque construction rules from the traditional and classical era still continues in the century. While some mosque structures have a plan which is inherited from the classical successor, some of were constructed with the same classical period rules. Nonetheless, the location and transformation of the lodges, which are affecting the interior design, are noteworthy. They provide a significant transition on the way to the new language of the mosque design that will be experienced in the next century. It is intended to draw attention to the structural evolution of the 18th century Ottoman architecture through the royal mosques within the scope of this conference.

Keywords: mosque structure, Ottoman architecture, structural evolution, 18th century architecture

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Authors: Nurul Izzati Abd Karim, Samira Albati Kamaruddin, Rozaimi Che Hasan

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The appropriate petrophysical relationship is needed for Soil Water Content (SWC) estimation especially when using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). Ground penetrating radar is a geophysical tool that provides indirectly the parameter of SWC. This paper examines the performance of few published petrophysical relationships to obtain SWC estimates from in-situ GPR common- offset survey measurements with gravimetric measurements at peat soil area. Gravimetric measurements were conducted to support of GPR measurements for the accuracy assessment. Further, GPR with dual frequencies (250MHhz and 700MHz) were used in the survey measurements to obtain the dielectric permittivity. Three empirical equations (i.e., Roth’s equation, Schaap’s equation and Idi’s equation) were selected for the study, used to compute the soil water content from dielectric permittivity of the GPR profile. The results indicate that Schaap’s equation provides strong correlation with SWC as measured by GPR data sets and gravimetric measurements.

Keywords: common-offset measurements, ground penetrating radar, petrophysical relationship, soil water content

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Authors: Rajesh Agarwal

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Carrier mobility at the organic/insulator interface is essential to the performance of organic thin film transistors (OTFT). The present work describes estimation of field dependent mobility (FDM) parameters and the threshold voltage of an OTFT using a simple, easy to fabricate two terminal asymmetric capacitive test structure using admittance measurements. Conventionally, transfer characteristics are used to estimate the threshold voltage in an OTFT with field independent mobility (FIDM). Yet, this technique breaks down to give accurate results for devices with high contact resistance and having field dependent mobility. In this work, a new technique is presented for characterization of long channel organic capacitor (LCOC). The proposed technique helps in the accurate estimation of mobility enhancement factor (γ), the threshold voltage (V_th) and band mobility (µ₀) using capacitance-voltage (C-V) measurement in OTFT. This technique also helps to get rid of making short channel OTFT or metal-insulator-metal (MIM) structures for making C-V measurements. To understand the behavior of devices and ease of analysis, transmission line compact model is developed. The 2-D numerical simulation was carried out to illustrate the correctness of the model. Results show that proposed technique estimates device parameters accurately even in the presence of contact resistance and field dependent mobility. Pentacene/Poly (4-vinyl phenol) based top contact bottom-gate OTFT’s are fabricated to illustrate the operation and advantages of the proposed technique. Small signal of frequency varying from 1 kHz to 5 kHz and gate potential ranging from +40 V to -40 V have been applied to the devices for measurement.

Keywords: capacitance, mobility, organic, thin film transistor

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Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Joseph Rynkiewicz

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Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is well-established method for causal effect estimation with desirable statistical properties. TMLE is a doubly robust maximum likelihood based approach that includes a secondary targeting step that optimizes the target statistical parameter. A causal interpretation of the statistical parameter requires assumptions of the Rubin causal framework. The causal effect of binary variable, E, on outcomes, Y, is defined in terms of comparisons between two potential outcomes as E[YE=1 − YE=0]. Our aim in this paper is to present an adaptation of TMLE methodology to estimate the causal effect of a non-binary categorical variable, providing a large application. We propose coding on the initial data in order to operate a binarization of the interest variable. For each category, we get a transformation of the non-binary interest variable into a binary variable, taking value 1 to indicate the presence of category (or group of categories) for an individual, 0 otherwise. Such a dummy variable makes it possible to have a pair of potential outcomes and oppose a category (or a group of categories) to another category (or a group of categories). Let E be a non-binary interest variable. We propose a complete disjunctive coding of our variable E. We transform the initial variable to obtain a set of binary vectors (dummy variables), E = (Ee : e ∈ {1, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when its category is not present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to compute a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between one category and all remaining categories. In order to illustrate the application of our strategy, first, we present the implementation of TMLE to estimate the causal effect of non-binary variable on outcome using simulated data. Secondly, we apply our TMLE adaptation to survey data from the French Political Barometer (CEVIPOF), to estimate the causal effect of education level (A five-level variable) on a potential vote in favor of the French extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. Counterfactual reasoning requires us to consider some causal questions (additional causal assumptions). Leading to different coding of E, as a set of binary vectors, E = (Ee : e ∈ {2, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when the first category (reference category) is present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to apply a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between the first level (fixed) and each remaining level. We confirmed that the increase in the level of education decreases the voting rate for the extreme right party.

Keywords: statistical inference, causal inference, super learning, targeted maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Seung-Seok Bak, Chang-Mu Jung

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An enough amount supply of industrial complexes is an important national policy in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade. A development process of the industrial complex can distinguish between the planning stage and the construction stage. The planning stage consists of the process of consulting with many stakeholders on the contents of the development of industrial complex, feasibility study, compliance with the Regional policies, and so on. The industrial complex planning stage, including licensing procedure, usually takes about three years in South Korea. The government determined that the appropriate supply of industrial complexes have been delayed, due to the long licensing period and drafted a law to shorten the license period in 2008. The law was expected to shorten the period of licensing, which was about three years, to six months. This paper attempts to show that the shortening of the licensing period does not positively affect the appropriate supply of industrial complexes. To do this, we used Interrupted Time Series Designs. As a result, it was found that the supply of industrial complexes was influenced more by other factors such as actual industrial complex demand of private sector and macro-level economic variables. In addition, the specific provisions of the law conflict with local policy and cause some problems such as damage to nature and agricultural land, traffic congestion.

Keywords: development of industrial complexes, industrial complexes, interrupted time series designs, simplification of licensing procedures for industrial complexes, time series regression

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Authors: Thevaranchany Sivaskaran

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Women entrepreneurs are the key players in the society and their contributions is highly highlighted to enhance economic stability in the country. In Sri Lanka, especially in North and East provinces people badly affected by war. Most of them are widows and women headed families. Due to this changing environment, Educational opportunities, and the support of NGO’s Most of the women have started their business and become entrepreneurs. Even though existing family setup and social setup entrepreneurial women are overburdened and difficult to balance their business and family roles. The research has been conducted on the experiences of women entrepreneurs with the family role support and work-life balance within the small and micro- enterprise sector in Jaffna, Srilanka. This study aims to identify that what extent the role of family support will be the tool to balancing work and life effectively and, secondly, the main challenges they face in achieving work-life balance. This is done by drawing on literatures including those on work-life balance, small-and micro enterprises, and entrepreneurship theories. To find out this objective, the data were collected from 50 entrepreneurs among the members of Jaffna women chamber in each GS division basis (cluster random sampling). A qualitative methodological technique and semi-structured interviews were used to collect the data for the case study on these entrepreneurs. The results indicate that the majority of entrepreneurs do not enjoy a sense of work-life balance because most of them are women headed family and they need to work hard to generate financial profit for the benefit of family. The motivation for them to work in this way is to provide basic needs. Results confirmed for others that support of husbands is very important. Mostly, emotional support (belief and empowerment) is exposed; however, getting financial contribution seems to be highly appreciated. More responsibilities which spouses were ready to take over regarding the home responsibilities (that is, childcare) should also not be neglected in the system of support to their entrepreneurial wives. Although, more important for all, women with children appreciated other members and spouses help and assistance to a higher extent. Results showed that majority of women who started their own business feel that in the first year of ope-ration the emotional support of family members was more important.

Keywords: family support, work life balance, women entrepreneurs, Jaffna District, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: Thu Nhi Tran Caliste

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X-ray Bragg diffraction imaging (“topography”)entered into practical use when Lang designed an “easy” technical setup to characterise the defects / distortions in the high perfection crystals produced for the microelectronics industry. The use of this technique extended to all kind of high quality crystals, and deposited layers, and a series of publications explained, starting from the dynamical theory of diffraction, the contrast of the images of the defects. A quantitative version of “monochromatic topography” known as“Rocking Curve Imaging” (RCI) was implemented, by using synchrotron light and taking advantage of the dramatic improvement of the 2D-detectors and computerised image processing. The rough data is constituted by a number (~300) of images recorded along the diffraction (“rocking”) curve. If the quality of the crystal is such that a one-to-onerelation between a pixel of the detector and a voxel within the crystal can be established (this approximation is very well fulfilled if the local mosaic spread of the voxel is < 1 mradian), a software we developped provides, from the each rocking curve recorded on each of the pixels of the detector, not only the “voxel” integrated intensity (the only data provided by the previous techniques) but also its “mosaic spread” (FWHM) and peak position. We will show, based on many examples, that this new data, never recorded before, open the field to a highly enhanced characterization of the crystal and deposited layers. These examples include the characterization of dislocations and twins occurring during silicon growth, various growth features in Al203, GaNand CdTe (where the diffraction displays the Borrmannanomalous absorption, which leads to a new type of images), and the characterisation of the defects within deposited layers, or their effect on the substrate. We could also observe (due to the very high sensitivity of the setup installed on BM05, which allows revealing these faint effects) that, when dealing with very perfect crystals, the Kato’s interference fringes predicted by dynamical theory are also associated with very small modifications of the local FWHM and peak position (of the order of the µradian). This rather unexpected (at least for us) result appears to be in keeping with preliminary dynamical theory calculations.

Keywords: rocking curve imaging, X-ray diffraction, defect, distortion

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Authors: M. Yushalify Misro, Ahmad Ramli, Jamaludin M. Ali

Abstract:

Bezier curves have useful properties for path generation problem, for instance, it can generate the reference trajectory for vehicles to satisfy the path constraints. Both algorithms join cubic Bezier curve segment smoothly to generate the path. Some of the useful properties of Bezier are curvature. In mathematics, the curvature is the amount by which a geometric object deviates from being flat, or straight in the case of a line. Another extrinsic example of curvature is a circle, where the curvature is equal to the reciprocal of its radius at any point on the circle. The smaller the radius, the higher the curvature thus the vehicle needs to bend sharply. In this study, we use Bezier curve to fit highway-like curve. We use the different approach to finding the best approximation for the curve so that it will resemble highway-like curve. We compute curvature value by analytical differentiation of the Bezier Curve. We will then compute the maximum speed for driving using the curvature information obtained. Our research works on some assumptions; first the Bezier curve estimates the real shape of the curve which can be verified visually. Even, though, the fitting process of Bezier curve does not interpolate exactly on the curve of interest, we believe that the estimation of speed is acceptable. We verified our result with the manual calculation of the curvature from the map.

Keywords: speed estimation, path constraints, reference trajectory, Bezier curve

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Authors: Y. Zheng, M. Busi, A. F. Pedersen, M. A. Beltran, C. Gundlach

Abstract:

X-ray phase contrast imaging has shown to yield a better contrast compared to conventional attenuation X-ray imaging, especially for soft tissues in the medical imaging energy range. This can potentially lead to better diagnosis for patients. However, phase contrast imaging has mainly been performed using highly brilliant Synchrotron radiation, as it requires high coherence X-rays. Many research teams have demonstrated that it is also feasible using a laboratory source, bringing it one step closer to clinical use. Nevertheless, the requirement of fine gratings and high precision stepping motors when using a laboratory source prevents it from being widely used. Recently, a random phase object has been proposed as an analyzer. This method requires a much less robust experimental setup. However, previous studies were done using a particular X-ray source (liquid-metal jet micro-focus source) or high precision motors for stepping. We have been working on a much simpler setup with just small modification of a commercial bench-top micro-CT (computed tomography) scanner, by introducing a piece of sandpaper as the phase analyzer in front of the X-ray source. However, it needs a suitable algorithm for speckle tracking and 3D reconstructions. The precision and sensitivity of speckle tracking algorithm determine the resolution of the system, while the 3D reconstruction algorithm will affect the minimum number of projections required, thus limiting the temporal resolution. As phase contrast imaging methods usually require much longer exposure time than traditional absorption based X-ray imaging technologies, a dynamic phase contrast micro-CT with a high temporal resolution is particularly challenging. Different reconstruction methods, including neural network based techniques, will be evaluated in this project to increase the temporal resolution of the phase contrast micro-CT. A Monte Carlo ray tracing simulation (McXtrace) was used to generate a large dataset to train the neural network, in order to address the issue that neural networks require large amount of training data to get high-quality reconstructions.

Keywords: micro-ct, neural networks, reconstruction, speckle-based x-ray phase contrast

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

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Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Shreyas Srinivas Rangan, Jurgis Porins

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The internet traffic has increased exponentially due to the high demand for data rates by the users, and the constantly increasing metro networks and access networks are focused on improving the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks. One of the common methods to improve the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks at the component level is to use broadband optical amplifiers. The Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier (EDFA) provides high amplification with low noise figure but due to the characteristics of EDFA, its operation is limited to C-band and L-band. In contrast, the Raman amplifier exhibits a wide amplification spectrum, and negative noise figure values can be achieved. To obtain such results, high powered pumping sources are required. Operating Raman amplifiers with such high-powered optical sources may cause fire hazards and it may damage the optical system. In this paper, we implement a hybrid optical amplifier configuration. EDFA and Raman amplifiers are used in this hybrid setup to combine the advantages of both EDFA and Raman amplifiers to improve the reach of the system. Using this setup, we analyze the maximum transmit distance of the network by obtaining a correlation diagram between the length of the single-mode fiber (SMF) and the Bit Error Rate (BER). This hybrid amplifier configuration is implemented in a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) system with a BER of 10⁻⁹ by using NRZ modulation format, and the gain uniformity noise ratio (signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)), the efficiency of the pumping source, and the optical signal gain efficiency of the amplifier are studied experimentally in a mathematical modelling environment. Numerical simulations were implemented in RSoft OptSim simulation software based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation using the Split-Step method, the Fourier transform, and the Monte Carlo method for estimating BER.

Keywords: Raman amplifier, erbium doped fibre amplifier, bit error rate, hybrid optical amplifiers

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar Soni

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Under free living conditions, human biological clocks show a periodicity of 24 hour for numerous physiological, behavioral and biochemical variables. However, this period is not the original period; rather it merely exhibits synchronization with the solar clock. It is, therefore, most important to investigate characteristics of human circadian clock, essentially in shift workers, who normally confront with contrasting social clocks. Aim of the present study was to investigate rest-activity rhythm and to vouch for the best technique for the computation of periods in this rhythm in subjects randomly selected from different groups of shift workers. The rest-activity rhythm was studied in forty-eight shift workers from three different organizations, namely Newspaper Printing Press (NPP), Chhattisgarh State Electricity Board (CSEB) and Raipur Alloys (RA). Shift workers of NPP (N = 20) were working on a permanent night shift schedule (NS; 20:00-04:00). However, in CSEB (N = 14) and RA (N = 14), shift workers were working in a 3-shift system comprising of rotations from night (NS; 22:00-06:00) to afternoon (AS; 14:00-22:00) and to morning shift (MS; 06:00-14:00). Each subject wore an Actiwatch (AW64, Mini Mitter Co. Inc., USA) for 7 and/or 21 consecutive days, only after furnishing a certificate of consent. One-minute epoch length was chosen for the collection of wrist activity data. Period was determined by using Actiware sleep software (Periodogram), Lomb-Scargle Periodogram (LSP) and Spectral analysis software (Spectre). Other statistical techniques, such as ANOVA and Duncan’s multiple-range test were also used whenever required. A statistically significant circadian rhythm in rest-activity, gauged by cosinor, was documented in all shift workers, irrespective of shift work. Results indicate that the efficiency of the technique to determine the period (τ) depended upon the clipping limits of the τs. It appears that the technique of spectre is more reliable.

Keywords: biological clock, rest activity rhythm, spectre, periodogram

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Authors: Niloofar Zebarjad

Abstract:

This research aims at finding a tool to provide basketball players with real-time audio feedback on their shooting form in free throw shots. Free throws played a pivotal role in taking the lead in fierce competitions. The major problem in performing an accurate free throw seems to be improper training. Since the arm movement during the free throw shot is complex, the coach or the athlete might miss the movement details during practice. Hence, there is a necessity to create a system that measures arm movements' critical characteristics and control for improper kinematics. The proposed setup in this study quantifies arm kinematics and provides real-time feedback as an audio signal consisting of a gyroscope sensor. Spatial shoulder angle data are transmitted in a mobile application in real-time and can be saved and processed for statistical and analysis purposes. The proposed system is easy to use, inexpensive, portable, and real-time applicable. Objectives: This research aims to modify and control the free throw using audio feedback and determine if and to what extent the new setup reduces errors in arm formations during throws and finally assesses the successful throw rate. Methods: One group of elite basketball athletes and two novice athletes (control and study group) participated in this study. Each group contains 5 participants being studied in three separate sessions over a week. Results: Empirical results showed enhancements in the free throw shooting style, shot pocket (SP), and locked position (LP). The mean values of shoulder angle were controlled on 25° and 45° for SP and LP, respectively, recommended by valid FIBA references. Conclusion: Throughout the experiments, the system helped correct and control the shoulder angles toward the targeted pattern of shot pocket (SP) and locked position (LP). According to the desired results for arm motion, adding another sensor to measure and control the elbow angle is recommended.

Keywords: audio-feedback, basketball, free-throw, locked-position, motor-control, shot-pocket

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Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan

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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.

Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression

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