Search results for: clinical prediction score

Authors: Ying Deng, Fan Yang

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Aim: To study the growth pattern of preterm infants during the first year of life and explore the association between head circumference (HC) and neurodevelopment sequences and to get a general knowledge of the incidence of anemia in preterm babies in Chengdu, Southwest China. Method: We conducted a prospective longitudinal study, neonates with gestational age < 37 weeks were enrolled this study from 2012.1.1 to 2014.7.9. Anthropometry (weight, height, HC) was obtained at birth, every month before 6 months-old and every 2 months in the next half year. All the infants’ age were corrected to 40 weeks. Growth data presented as Z-scores which was calculated by WHO Anthro software. Z-score defined as (the actual value minus the average value)/standard deviation. Neurodevelopment was assessed at 12 months-old [9-11 months corrected age (CA)] by using “Denver Development Screen Test (DDST)". The hemoglobin (Hb) was examined at 6 months for CA. Result: 445 preterm infants were followed-up 1 year, including 64 very low birth weight infants (VLBW), 246 low birth weight infants (LBW) and 135 normal birth weight infants(NBW). From full-term to 12 months after birth, catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. From VLBW to NBW, HCZ was -1.17 (95 % CI: -1.53,-0.80; P value < 0.0001) lower during the first12 months. WAZ was-1.12(95 % CI: -1.47,-0.76; p < 0.0001) lower. WHZ and HAZ were -1.04 (95%CI:-1.38, -0.69; P<0.0001) and -0.69 (95%CI:-1.06,-0.33; P < 0.0001) lower respectively. The peak of WAZ appeared during 0-3 months CA among preterm infants. For VLBW infants, the peak of HAZ and HCZ emerged at 8-11 months CA. However, the trend of HAZ and HCZ is the same as WAZ in LBW and NBW infants. Growth in the small for gestational age (SGA) infants was poorer than appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants. The rate of DQ < 70 in VLBW and LBW were 29.6%, 7.7%, respectively (P < 0.0001). HCZ < -1SD at 3 months emerged as an independent predictor of DQ scores below 85 at 12 months after birth. The incidence of anemia in preterm infants was 11% at 6 months for CA. Moreover, 7 children (1.7%) diagnosed with Cerebral palsy (CP). Conclusions: The catch-up growth was observed in most preterm infants. VLBW and SGA showed poor growth. There was imbalance between WAZ and HAZ in VLBW infants. The VLBW babies had higher severe abnormal scores than LBW and NBW, especially in boys. Z score for HC at 3 months < -1SDwas a significant risk factor for abnormal DQ scores at the first year. The iron supplement reduced the morbidity of anemia in preterm infants.

Keywords: preterm infant, growth and development, DDST, Z-scores

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Authors: Harsh Thakkar, Ganesh Iyer

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In this paper, we survey various user-centered or context-based biomedical health information retrieval systems. We present and discuss the performance of systems submitted in CLEF eHealth 2014 Task 3 for this purpose. We classify and focus on comparing the two most prevalent retrieval models in biomedical information retrieval namely: Language Model (LM) and Vector Space Model (VSM). We also report on the effectiveness of using external medical resources and ontologies like MeSH, Metamap, UMLS, etc. We observed that the LM based retrieval systems outperform VSM based systems on various fronts. From the results we conclude that the state-of-art system scores for MAP was 0.4146, P@10 was 0.7560 and NDCG@10 was 0.7445, respectively. All of these score were reported by systems built on language modeling approaches.

Keywords: clinical document retrieval, concept-based information retrieval, query expansion, language models, vector space models

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Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

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Authors: Oktavian Prasetia Wardana, Martono Tri Utomo, Risa Etika, Kartika Darma Handayani, Dina Angelika, Wurry Ayuningtyas

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Background: Critically ill neonates are newborn babies with high-risk factors that potentially cause disability and/or death. Scoring systems for determining the severity of the disease have been widely developed as well as some designs for use in neonates. The SNAPPE-II method, which has been used as a mortality predictor scoring system in several referral centers, was found to be slow in assessing the outcome of critically ill neonates in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). Objective: To analyze the predictive value of MSNS on the outcome of critically ill neonates at the time of arrival up to 24 hours after being admitted to the NICU. Methods: A longitudinal observational analytic study based on medical record data was conducted from January to August 2022. Each sample was recorded from medical record data, including data on gestational age, mode of delivery, APGAR score at birth, resuscitation measures at birth, duration of resuscitation, post-resuscitation ventilation, physical examination at birth (including vital signs and any congenital abnormalities), the results of routine laboratory examinations, as well as the neonatal outcomes. Results: This study involved 105 critically ill neonates who were admitted to the NICU. The outcome of critically ill neonates was 50 (47.6%) neonates died, and 55 (52.4%) neonates lived. There were more males than females (61% vs. 39%). The mean gestational age of the subjects in this study was 33.8 ± 4.28 weeks, with the mean birth weight of the subjects being 1820.31 ± 33.18 g. The mean MSNS score of neonates with a deadly outcome was lower than that of the lived outcome. ROC curve with a cut point MSNS score <10.5 obtained an AUC of 93.5% (95% CI: 88.3-98.6) with a sensitivity value of 84% (95% CI: 80.5-94.9), specificity 80 % (CI 95%: 88.3-98.6), Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 79.2%, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) 84.6%, Risk Ratio (RR) 5.14 with Hosmer & Lemeshow test results p>0.05. Conclusion: The MSNS score has a good predictive value and good calibration of the outcomes of critically ill neonates admitted to the NICU.

Keywords: critically ill neonate, outcome, MSNS, NICU, predictive value

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Authors: Pornthip Seangsanga

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Sepsis or septic shock needs urgent care because it is a cause of the high mortality rate if patients do not receive timely treatment. Songkhla Hospital does not have a clear system or clinical practice guidelines for treatment of patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, which contributes to the said problem.To compare clinical outcomes based on the protocol after using the clinical guidelines between the Emergency Room, Intensive Care Unit, and the Ward. This quasi-experimental study was conducted on the population and 50 subjects who were diagnosed with severe sepsis or septic shock from December 2013 to May 2014. The data were collected using a nursing care and referring record form for patients with severe sepsis or septic shock at Songkhla Hospital. The record form had been tested for its validity by three experts, and the IOC was 1.The mortality rate in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock who were moved from the ER to the ICU was significantly lower than that of those patients moved from the Ward to the ICU within 48 hours. This was because patients with severe sepsis or septic shock who were moved from the ER to the ICU received more fluid within the first six hours according to the protocol which helped patients to have adequate tissue perfusion within the first six hours, and that helped improve blood flow to the kidneys, and the patients’ urine was found to be with a higher quantity of 0.5 cc/kg/hr, than those patients who were moved from the Ward to the ICU. This study shows that patients with severe sepsis or septic shock need to be treated immediately. Using the clinical practice guidelines along with timely diagnosis and treatment based on the sepsis bundle in giving sufficient and suitable amount of fluid to help improve blood circulation and blood pressure can clearly prevent or reduce severity of complications.

Keywords: clinical practice guidelines, caring, septic shock, sepsis bundle protocol

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Authors: Veronica Sri Lestari, Sitti Nurani Sirajuddin, Kasmiyati Kasim

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The purpose of this research was to know the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices. This research was conducted in Barru regency, South Sulawesi province, Indonesia, in 2014. Thirty beef cattle farmers were selected through random sampling. Primary and secondary data were collected through report, observation and deep interview by using questionnaire. Bio security practices consisted of 35 questions. Every answer of the question was scored based on three categories: score 1 (not important), score 2 (important) and 3 (very important). The results of this research showed that the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices was categorized as important.

Keywords: attitude, beef cattle, biosecurity, farmers

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Authors: Abu S. Mustafa, Mohammad W. Khan, Faraz Shaheed Khan, Nazima Habibi

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Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease of worldwide prevalence. There are at least four species and several strains of Brucella that cause human disease. Brucella genomes have very limited variation across strains, which hinder strain identification using classical molecular techniques, including PCR and 16 S rDNA sequencing. The aim of this study was to perform whole genome sequencing of clinical isolates of Brucella and perform bioinformatics and comparative genomics analyses to determine the existence of genetic differences across the isolates of a single Brucella species and strain. The draft sequence data were generated from 15 clinical isolates of Brucella melitensis (biovar 2 strain 63/9) using MiSeq next generation sequencing platform. The generated reads were used for further assembly and analysis. All the analysis was performed using Bioinformatics work station (8 core i7 processor, 8GB RAM with Bio-Linux operating system). FastQC was used to determine the quality of reads and low quality reads were trimmed or eliminated using Fastx_trimmer. Assembly was done by using Velvet and ABySS softwares. The ordering of assembled contigs was performed by Mauve. An online server RAST was employed to annotate the contigs assembly. Annotated genomes were compared using Mauve and ACT tools. The QC score for DNA sequence data, generated by MiSeq, was higher than 30 for 80% of reads with more than 100x coverage, which suggested that data could be utilized for further analysis. However when analyzed by FastQC, quality of four reads was not good enough for creating a complete genome draft so remaining 11 samples were used for further analysis. The comparative genome analyses showed that despite sharing same gene sets, single nucleotide polymorphisms and insertions/deletions existed across different genomes, which provided a variable extent of diversity to these bacteria. In conclusion, the next generation sequencing, bioinformatics, and comparative genome analysis can be utilized to find variations (point mutations, insertions and deletions) across different genomes of Brucella within a single strain. This information could be useful in surveillance and epidemiological studies supported by Kuwait University Research Sector grants MI04/15 and SRUL02/13.

Keywords: brucella, bioinformatics, comparative genomics, whole genome sequencing

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Authors: Sanaa Mekdad, Leenah Alsayed

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Pharmacists play an important role in the CDTM in the care of patients with heart failure (HF). CDTM allows specialized, dedicated clinical pharmacists in a formal agreement in collaborative practice with physicians. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the role of cardiology clinical pharmacists in CDTM in decreasing hospitalization and cost. We studied patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction in a cluster-randomized selection in a tertiary care center. We allocated 296 patients to pharmacist intervention from 1480 patients. Results: With an acceptance rate of 86%, we documented 696 interventions carried out by clinical pharmacists in cardiology. The average intervention was 2.4 patients, and the admission after interventions decreased from 0.79 to. 0.24 (p value = 0.001). Conclusions: In HF CDTM, clinical pharmacists play a crucial role in enhancing medication management, patient education, and lifestyle modification of patients with chronic heart failure. These efforts improve patients' outcomes and lower costs by reducing hospitalization and other associated expenses.

Keywords: cardiology, medication management, heart failure, outpatient therapy, pharmacist-based services, chronic heart failure, heart failure recommendations, CDTM, Middle East, pharmacist-based services, quality of life, pharmacist

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Authors: Fatma Abdel Moneim Al Tawil

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This study was undertaken to evaluate an educational program regarding scientific writing and presentation skills among university students. This interventional study used a one-group, pretest/posttest design and was conducted in Al Jouf University among four colleges in Saudi Arabia. Baseline students’ assessment was conducted for developing educational program. Interventional, one group, pretest/posttest study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the educational program. Three parts evaluation sheet with total scores of 30 was used for 113 students for the development of the program and 52 students for test pretest phase. Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the combined overall program skills score from a median of 56.7 pre to a median of 86.7 post, (z = 6.231, p < 0.001). When compared to preprogram intervention, post interventions 51.9 % of students achieve excellent performance. While pre intervention no students (0.0 %) achieve this score. Regarding to scientific writing skills, Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the score from a median of 60 pre to a median of 90 post, (z = 6.122, p < 0.001). None of students had excellent performance changed to 73.1%. Regarding to oral presentation skills, Wilcoxon signed ranks showed statistically significant improvement in the score from a median of 50 pre to a median of 80 post, (z = 6.153, p < 0.001). None of students had excellent performance changed to 48.1%. Such educational program needs to be incorporated into classroom delivery of the students’ curriculum. Scientific writing skills book needed to be developed to be recommended as a basic educational strategy for all university faculties.

Keywords: scientific writing, presentation skills, university students, educational program

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Authors: Rishana Bilimoria, Selina Tang, Sajni Shah, Marianne Henien, Christopher Sproat

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Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) may affect up to a third of the general population, and there is evidence demonstrating the majority of Myofascial TMD cases improve after education and conservative measures. In 2015 our department implemented a modified care pathway for myofascial TMD patients in an attempt to improve the patient journey. This involved the use of an interactive group therapy approach to deliver education, reinforce conservative measures and promote self-management. Patient reported experience measures from the new group clinic revealed 71% patient satisfaction. This service is efficient in improving aspects of health status while reducing health-care costs and redistributing clinical time. Since its’ establishment, 52 hours of clinical time, resources and funding have been redirected effectively. This Quality Improvement Project was initiated because it was felt that this new service was being underutilised by our surgical teams. The ‘Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle’ (PDSA) framework was employed to analyse utilisation of the service: The ‘plan’ stage involved outlining our aims: to raise awareness amongst clinicians of the unified care pathway and to increase referral to this clinic. The ‘do’ stage involved collecting data from a sample of 96 patients over 4 month period to ascertain the proportion of Myofascial TMD patients who were correctly referred to the designated clinic. ‘Suitable’ patients who weren’t referred were identified. The ‘Study’ phase involved analysis of results, which revealed that 77% of suitable patients weren’t referred to the designated clinic. They were reviewed on other clinics, which are often overbooked, or managed by junior staff members. This correlated with our original prediction. Barriers to referral included: lack of awareness of the clinic, individual consultant treatment preferences and patient, reluctance to be referred to a ‘group’ clinic. The ‘Act’ stage involved presenting our findings to the team at a clinical governance meeting. This included demonstration of the clinical effectiveness of the care-pathway and explaining the referral route and criteria. In light of the evaluation results, it was decided to keep the group clinic and maximize utilisation. The second cycle of data collection following these changes revealed that of 66 Myofascial TMD patients over a 4 month period, only 9% of suitable patients were not seen via the designated pathway; therefore this QIP was successful in meeting the set objectives. Overall, employing the PDSA cycle in this QIP resulted in appropriate utilisation of the modified care pathway for patients with myofascial TMD in Guy’s Oral Surgery Department. In turn, this leads to high patient satisfaction with the service and effectively redirected 52 hours of clinical time. It permitted adoption of a collaborative working style with oral surgery colleagues to investigate problems, identify solutions, and collectively raise standards of clinical care to ensure we adopt a unified care pathway in secondary care management of Myofascial TMD patients.

Keywords: myofascial, quality Improvement, PDSA, TMD

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Authors: Bryce Benson, Sooin Lee, Ashwin Belle

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Unrecognized or delayed identification of patient deterioration is a key cause of in-hospitals adverse events. Clinicians rely on vital signs monitoring to recognize patient deterioration. However, due to ever increasing nursing workloads and the manual effort required, vital signs tend to be measured and recorded intermittently, and inconsistently causing large gaps during patient monitoring. Additionally, during deterioration, the body’s autonomic nervous system activates compensatory mechanisms causing the vital signs to be lagging indicators of underlying hemodynamic decline. This study analyzes the predictive efficacy of the Analytic for Hemodynamic Instability (AHI) system, an automated tool that was designed to help clinicians in early identification of deteriorating patients. The lead time analysis in this retrospective observational study assesses how far in advance AHI predicted deterioration prior to the start of an episode of hemodynamic instability (HI) becoming evident through vital signs? Results indicate that of the 362 episodes of HI in this study, 308 episodes (85%) were correctly predicted by the AHI system with a median lead time of 57 minutes and an average of 4 hours (240.5 minutes). Of the 54 episodes not predicted, AHI detected 45 of them while the episode of HI was ongoing. Of the 9 undetected, 5 were not detected by AHI due to either missing or noisy input ECG data during the episode of HI. In total, AHI was able to either predict or detect 98.9% of all episodes of HI in this study. These results suggest that AHI could provide an additional ‘pair of eyes’ on patients, continuously filling the monitoring gaps and consequently giving the patient care team the ability to be far more proactive in patient monitoring and adverse event management.

Keywords: clinical deterioration prediction, decision support system, early warning system, hemodynamic status, physiologic monitoring

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Authors: Raman Sharma, S. K. Jain

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Aims and Objectives: Fixation of the mesh during laparoscopic total extraperitoneal (TEP) repair of inguinal hernia is thought to be necessary to prevent recurrence. However, mesh fixation may increase surgical complications and postoperative pain. Our objective was to compare the outcomes of nonfixation with fixation of polypropylene mesh by metal tacks during TEP repair of inguinal hernia. Methods: Forty patients aged 18 to72 years with inguinal hernia were included who underwent laparoscopic TEP repair of inguinal hernia with (n=20) or without (n=20) fixation of the mesh. The outcomes were operative duration, postoperative pain score, cost, in-hospital stay, time to return to normal activity, and complications. Results: Patients in whom the mesh was not fixed had shorter mean operating time (p < 0.05). We found no difference between groups in the postoperative pain score, incidence of recurrence, in-hospital stay, time to return to normal activity and complications (P > 0.05). Moreover, a net cost savings was realized for each hernia repair performed without stapled mesh. Conclusions: TEP repair without mesh fixation resulted in the shorter operating time and lower operative cost with no difference between groups in the postoperative pain score, incidence of recurrence, in-hospital stay, time to return to normal activity and complications. All this contribute to make TEP repair without mesh fixation a better choice for repair of uncomplicated inguinal hernia, especially in developing nations with scarce resources.

Keywords: postoperative pain score, inguinal hernia, nonfixation of mesh, total extra peritoneal (TEP)

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Authors: Rashini Maduka, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can happen when two or more drugs are taken together. Today DDIs have become a serious health issue due to adverse drug effects. In vivo and in vitro methods for identifying DDIs are time-consuming and costly. Therefore, in-silico-based approaches are preferred in DDI identification. Most machine learning models for DDI prediction are used chemical and biological drug properties as features. However, some drug features are not available and costly to extract. Therefore, it is better to make automatic feature engineering. Furthermore, people who have diabetes already suffer from other diseases and take more than one medicine together. Then adverse drug effects may happen to diabetic patients and cause unpleasant reactions in the body. In this study, we present a model with a graph convolutional autoencoder and a graph decoder using a dataset from DrugBank version 5.1.3. The main objective of the model is to identify unknown interactions between antidiabetic drugs and the drugs taken by diabetic patients for other diseases. We considered automatic feature engineering and used Known DDIs only as the input for the model. Our model has achieved 0.86 in AUC and 0.86 in AP.

Keywords: drug-drug interaction prediction, graph embedding, graph convolutional networks, adverse drug effects

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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Introduction: Exposure to second-hand smoke is an important global health problem and threatens the health of people, especially children and women. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of education based on the Health Belief Model on preventive behaviors of exposure to second-hand smoke in women. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was performed in 2022 in Sanandaj, west of Iran. Seventy-four people were selected by simple random sampling and divided into an intervention group (37 people) and a control group (37 people). Data collection tools included demographic characteristics and a second-hand smoke exposure questionnaire based on the Health Beliefs Model. The training in the intervention group was conducted in three one-hour sessions in the comprehensive health service centers in the form of lectures, pamphlets, and group discussions. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21 and statistical tests such as correlation, paired t-test, and independent t-test. Results: The intervention and control groups were homogeneous before education. They were similar in terms of mean scores of the Health Belief Model. However, after an educational intervention, some of the scores increased, including the mean perceived sensitivity score (from 17.62±2.86 to 19.75±1.23), perceived severity score (28.40±4.45 to 31.64±2), perceived benefits score (27.27±4.89 to 31.94±2.17), practice score (32.64±4.68 to 36.91±2.32) perceived barriers from 26.62±5.16 to 31.29±3.34, guide for external action (from 17.70±3.99 to 22/89 ±1.67), guide for internal action from (16.59±2.95 to 1.03±18.75), and self-efficacy (from 19.83 ±3.99 to 23.37±1.43) (P <0.05). Conclusion: The educational intervention designed based on the Health Belief Model in women was effective in performing preventive behaviors against exposure to second-hand smoke.

Keywords: education, women, exposure to secondhand smoke, health belief model

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Authors: Walid Abouzeid, Mohamed Shadad, Mostafa Farid, Magdy El Hawary

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The most frequent treatable vascular abnormality of the spinal canal is spinal dural arteriovenous fistulae (SDAVFs), which cause progressive para- or quadriplegia mostly affecting elderly males. SDAVFs are present in the thoracolumbar region. The main goal of treatment must be to obliterate the shunting zone via superselective embolization with the usage of a liquid embolic agent. This study aims to evaluate endovascular technique as a safe and efficient approach for the treatment SDAVFs, especially with long-term follow-up clinical outcomes. Study Design: A retrospective clinical case study. From May 2010 to May 2017, 15 patients who had symptoms attributed to SDAVFs underwent the operation in the Departments of Neurosurgery in Suhag, Tanta, and Al-Azhar Universities and Interventional Radiology, Ain Shams University. All the patients had varying degrees of progressive spastic paraparesis with and without sphincteric disturbances. Endovascular embolization was used in all cases. Fourteen were males, with ages ranging from 45 to 74 years old. After the treatment, good outcome was found in five patients (33.3%), a moderate outcome was delineated in six patients (40 %), and four patients revealed a poor outcome (26.7%). Spinal AVF could be treated safely and effectively by the endovascular approach. Generally, there is no correlation between the disappearance of MRI abnormalities and significant clinical improvement. The preclinical state of the patient is directly proportional to the clinical outcome. Due to unexpected responses, embolization should be attempted even the patient is in a bad clinical condition.

Keywords: spine, arteriovenous, fistula, endovascular, embolization

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Authors: Nopadol Burananat, Kedsara Tripaichayonsak

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This research aims to study the level of expectations and participation of personnel in implementing educational quality assurance of programs in Graduate School, Rajabhat Suan Sunandha University. The sample used in this study is 60 participants. The tool used for data collection is a questionnaire constructed by the researcher. The analysis is done by frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. It was found that the level of expectations personnel in Graduate School, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University in implementing educational quality assurance is at high level. The category which received the most score is Action, followed by Check, Do and Plan, respectively. For the level of participation of personnel at program level of Graduate School, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University in implementing educational quality assurance, the overall score is at high level. The category which received the most score is Action, followed by Do, Check and Plan, respectively.

Keywords: participation, implementation of educational quality assurance, educational quality assurance, expectations and participation

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Authors: Asra Yousuf, Ajaykumar Tannirkulum

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Inferring rural-urban migration trends can help design effective policies that promote better urban planning and rural development. In this paper, we describe how machine learning algorithms can be applied to predict internal migration decisions of people. We consider data collected from household surveys in Tamil Nadu to train our model. To measure the performance of the model, we use data on past migration from National Sample Survey Organisation of India. The factors for training the model include socioeconomic characteristic of each individual like age, gender, place of residence, outstanding loans, strength of the household, etc. and his past migration history. We perform a comparative analysis of the performance of a number of machine learning algorithm to determine their prediction accuracy. Our results show that machine learning algorithms provide a stronger prediction accuracy as compared to statistical models. Our goal through this research is to propose the use of data science techniques in understanding human decisions and behaviour in developing countries.

Keywords: development, migration, internal migration, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Vahideh Zareh Gavgani, Zahra Salahzadeh

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To survey the attitudes, awareness, and practice of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM), and to determine the barriers that influence apply’ EBM in therapeutic process among clinical residents in Iran.We conducted a cross sectional survey during September to December 2012 at the teaching hospitals of Tehran University of Medical Sciences among 79 clinical residents from different medical specialties. A valid and reliable questionnaire consisted of five sections and 27 statements were used in this research. We applied Spearman and Mann Whitney test for correlation between variables. Findings showed that the knowledge of residents about EBM is low. Their attitude towards EBM was positive but their knowledge and skills in regard with the evidence based medical information resources were mostly limited to PubMed and Google scholar. The main barrier was the lack of enough time to practicing EBM. There was no significant correlation between residency grade and familiarity and use of electronic EBM resources (Spearman, P = 0.138). Integration of training approaches like journal clubs or workshops with clinical practice is suggested.

Keywords: evidence-based medicine, clinical residents, decision-making, attitude, questionnaire

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Authors: F. Christie, M. Staber

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Malnutrition is a predictor of poor clinical outcome in the elderly. Up to 60% of hip fracture patients are clinically malnourished on admission. This study assessed the perioperative nutritional state of patients admitted with a proximal femoral fracture and examined if adequate nutritional support was achieved. Methods: Prospective, the observational audit of 30 patients, admitted with a proximal femoral fracture, over a one-month period. We recorded: patient demographics; surgical delay; nutritional state on admission; documentation of Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) score; dietician input and daily calorie intake through food charts. The nutritional state was re-assessed weekly and at discharge. The outcome was measured by the length of hospital stay and thirty-day mortality. Results: Mean age 87, M:F 1:2 and all patients were ASA three or four. Five patients (17%) had a prolonged ( >24 hours) fasting period. All patients had a MUST score completed on admission, 27% were underweight and 30% were high risk for malnutrition. Twenty-six patients (87%) were appropriately assessed for dietician referral. Thirteen patients had food charts; on average, hospital meals provided 1500kcal daily. No patient achieved > 75% of the provided calories with 69% of patients achieving 50% or less. Only three patients were started on nutritional supplements. Twenty-three patients (77%) lost weight, averaging 6% weight loss during admission. Mean length of stay (LOS) was 23 days and 30-day mortality 9%. Four patients (13%) gained weight, their mean LOS was 17 days and 30-day mortality 0%. Discussion: Malnutrition in the elderly originates in the community. Following major trauma it’s difficult to reverse nutritional deficits in hospitals. It’s therefore concerning that no high-risk patient achieved their recommended calorie intake. Perioperative optimisation needs to include early nutritional intervention, early anaesthetic review and adjusted anaesthetic techniques to support feeding.

Keywords: trauma, nutrition, neck of femur fracture

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: Sezin Ekşioğlu

Abstract:

Multilabel classification has a huge importance for several applications, it is also a challenging research topic. It is a kind of supervised learning that contains binary targets. The distance between multilabel and binary classification is having more than one class in multilabel classification problems. Features can belong to one class or many classes. There exists a wide range of applications for multi label prediction such as image labeling, text categorization, gene functionality. Even though features are classified in many classes, they may not always be properly classified. There are many ensemble methods for the classification. However, most of the researchers have been concerned about better multilabel methods. Especially little ones focus on both efficiency of classifiers and pairwise relationships at the same time in order to implement better multilabel classification. In this paper, we worked on modified ensemble methods by getting benefit from k-Nearest Neighbors and neural network structure to address issues within a beneficial way and to get better impacts from the multilabel classification. Publicly available datasets (yeast, emotion, scene and birds) are performed to demonstrate the developed algorithm efficiency and the technique is measured by accuracy, F1 score and hamming loss metrics. Our algorithm boosts benchmarks for each datasets with different metrics.

Keywords: multilabel, classification, neural network, KNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Yung-Hui Tang, Yan-Chiou Ku, Li-Chi Huang

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Aim: The aim of this study is to explore the effect of the Humanoid Diagram Teaching (HDT) strategy on novice nurses’ care ability and retention rate. Methods: This study was a quasi-experimental study using two groups concurrently with repeat measurements sample consisted of 24 novice nurses (12 in each experimental and control group) in a medical center in southern Taiwan. Both groups all received regular training program (nursing standard techniques and practices, concept map, mini-CEX, CbD, and clinical education and training), and experimental group added the HDT program. The HDT strategy includes the contents of patients’ body humanoid drawing and discussion for 30 minutes each time, three times a week, and continually for four weeks. The effectiveness of ＨDT was evaluated by mini-CEX, CbD and clinical assessment and retention rate at the 3rd month and 6th month. Results: The novice nurses' care ability were examined, only CbD score in the control group was improved in the 3rd month and with statistical difference, p = .003. The mini-CEX and CbD in the experimental group were significantly improved in both the first and third month with statistical differences p = .00. Although mini-CEX and CbD in the experimental group were higher than the control group, but there was no significant difference p > .05. Retention rate of the experimental group in the third month and sixth month was significantly higher than the control group, and there was a statistically significant difference p < .05. Conclusions: The study reveals that HDT strategy can help novice nurses learning, enhancing their knowledge and technical capability, analytical skills in case-based caring, and retention. The HDT strategy can be served as an effective strategy for novice training for better nurse retention rate.

Keywords: humanoid diagram teaching strategy, novice nurses retention, teaching strategy of nurse retention, visual learning mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Maja Pandža, Sanjin Lovrić, Iva Čolak, Josipa Mandarić, Miro Klarić

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This study explores the role of symptoms related to mood disorders salience on different types of defense mechanisms (mature, neurotic, immature) predominance. Total of 177 both clinical and non-clinical participants in Mostar, Bosnia & Herzegovina, completed a battery of questionnaires associated with defense mechanisms and self-reported depression and anxiety symptoms. The sample was additionally divided into four groups, given the level of symptoms experienced: 1. minimal, 2. mild, 3. moderate, 4. severe depression/anxiety. Participants with minimal anxiety and depression symptoms use mature defense mechanisms more often than other three groups. Immature mechanisms are most commonly used by the group with severe depression/anxiety levels in comparison with other groups. These differences are discussed on the dynamic level of analysis to have a better understanding of the relationship between defense mechanisms' maturity and degree of mood disorders' symptom severity. Also, results given could serve as an implication for the psychotherapeutic treatment plans.

Keywords: anxiety/depression symptoms, clinical/non-clinical sample, defense mechanism maturity, dynamic approach

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Authors: Marian Sorin Ionescu, Olivia Negoita, Cosmin Dobrin

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This scientific communication reports and discusses learning models adaptable to modern business problems and models specific to digital concepts and paradigms. In the PAC (probably approximately correct) learning model approach, in which the learning process begins by receiving a batch of learning examples, the set of learning processes is used to acquire a hypothesis, and when the learning process is fully used, this hypothesis is used in the prediction of new operational examples. For complex business models, a lot of models should be introduced and evaluated to estimate the induced results so that the totality of the results are used to develop a predictive rule, which anticipates the choice of new models. In opposition, for online learning-type processes, there is no separation between the learning (training) and predictive phase. Every time a business model is approached, a test example is considered from the beginning until the prediction of the appearance of a model considered correct from the point of view of the business decision. After choosing choice a part of the business model, the label with the logical value "true" is known. Some of the business models are used as examples of learning (training), which helps to improve the prediction mechanisms for future business models.

Keywords: machine learning, business models, convex analysis, online learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Imad Eddine Charif, Wafaa Benchouk, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

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The regioselectivity of a series of 16 1,3-dipolar cycloaddition reactions of nitrile oxides with 2(5H)-furanones has been analysed by means of global and local electrophilic and nucleophilic reactivity indices using density functional theory at the B3LYP level together with the 6-31G(d) basis set. The local electrophilicity and nucleophilicity indices, based on Fukui and Parr functions, have been calculated for the terminal sites, namely the C1 and O3 atoms of the 1,3-dipole and the C4 and C5 atoms of the dipolarophile. These local indices were calculated using both Mulliken and natural charges and spin densities. The results obtained show that the C5 atom of the 2(5H)-furanones is the most electrophilic site whereas the O3 atom of the nitrile oxides is the most nucleophilic centre. It turns out that the experimental regioselectivity is correctly reproduced, indicating that both Fukui- and Parr-based indices are efficient tools for the prediction of the regiochemistry of the studied reactions and could be used for the prediction of newly designed reactions of the same kind.

Keywords: 1, 3-dipolar cycloaddition, density functional theory, nitrile oxides, regioselectivity, reactivity indices

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Authors: Bitewulign Mekonnen

Abstract:

Context: This scientific paper focuses on the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to determine glucose concentration in aqueous solutions accurately and rapidly. The study compares six different machine learning methods for predicting glucose concentration and also explores the development of a deep learning model for classifying NIR spectra. The objective is to optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction. This research is important because it provides a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating aqueous glucose concentrations. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare and evaluate different machine-learning methods for predicting glucose concentration from NIR spectra. Additionally, the study aims to develop and assess a deep-learning model for classifying NIR spectra. Methodology: The research methodology involves the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques. Six machine learning regression models, including support vector machine regression, partial least squares regression, extra tree regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting, and principal component analysis-neural network, are employed to predict glucose concentration. The NIR spectra data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the process is repeated ten times to increase generalization ability. In addition, a convolutional neural network is developed for classifying NIR spectra. Findings: The study reveals that the SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit excellent performance in predicting glucose concentration, with correlation coefficients (R) > 0.99 and determination coefficients (R²)> 0.985. The deep learning model achieves high macro-averaging scores for precision, recall, and F1-measure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning methods in optimizing the detection model and improving glucose prediction accuracy. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field by providing a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating glucose concentrations from NIR spectra. It also explores the use of deep learning for the classification of indistinguishable NIR spectra. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning and deep learning in enhancing the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The NIR spectra and corresponding references for glucose concentration are measured in increments of 20 mg/dl. The data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the models are evaluated using regression analysis and classification metrics. The performance of each model is assessed based on correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, precision, recall, and F1-measure. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether machine learning and deep learning methods can optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction from NIR spectra. Conclusion: The research demonstrates that machine learning and deep learning methods can effectively predict glucose concentration from NIR spectra. The SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit superior performance, while the deep learning model achieves high classification scores. These findings suggest that machine learning and deep learning techniques can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Further research is needed to explore their clinical utility in analyzing complex matrices, such as blood glucose levels.

Keywords: machine learning, signal processing, near-infrared spectroscopy, support vector machine, neural network

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Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

The ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on the Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to take into account other important criteria. From these models, we will consider the ZF model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index can affect the ABC items classification. We will then focus on the weights assigned to each index and propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

Abstract:

Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 381