Search results for: absolute entropy

Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Hamad R. Jappor, Zeyad Adnan Saleh, Mudar A. Abdulsattar

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The ab initio restricted Hartree-Fock method is used to simulate the electronic structure of indium phosphide (InP) nanocrystals (NCs) (216-738 atoms) with sizes ranging up to about 2.5 nm in diameter. The calculations are divided into two parts, surface, and core. The oxygenated (001)-(1×1) facet that expands with larger sizes of nanocrystals is investigated to determine the rule of the surface in nanocrystals electronic structure. Results show that lattice constant and ionicity of the core part show decreasing order as nanocrystals grow up in size. The smallest investigated nanocrystal is 1.6% larger in lattice constant and 131.05% larger in ionicity than the converged value of largest investigated nanocrystal. Increasing nanocrystals size also resulted in an increase of core cohesive energy (absolute value), increase of core energy gap, and increase of core valence. The surface states are found mostly non-degenerated because of the effect of surface discontinuity and oxygen atoms. Valence bandwidth is wider on the surface due to splitting and oxygen atoms. The method also shows fluctuations in the converged energy gap, valence bandwidth and cohesive energy of core part of nanocrystals duo to shape variation. The present work suggests the addition of ionicity and lattice constant to the quantities that are affected by quantum confinement phenomenon. The method of the present model has threefold results; it can be used to approach the electronic structure of crystals bulk, surface, and nanocrystals.

Keywords: InP, nanocrystals core, ionicity, Hartree-Fock method, large unit cell

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Authors: Saâd Oukkass, Abderrahim Bouftou, Rachid Ouchn, L. Lebrun, Miloudi Hlaibi

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We invariably exist in a world steeped in colors, whether in our clothing, food, cosmetics, or even medications. However, most of the dyes we use pose significant problems, being both harmful to the environment and resistant to degradation. Among these dyes, methylene blue and acid yellow 61 stand out, commonly used to dye various materials such as cotton, wood, and silk. Fortunately, various methods have been developed to treat and remove these polluting dyes, among which membrane processes play a prominent role. These methods are praised for their low energy consumption, ease of operation, and their ability to achieve effective separation of components. Adsorption on activated carbon is also a widely employed technique, complementing the basic processes. It proves particularly effective in capturing and removing organic compounds from water due to its substantial specific surface area while retaining its properties unchanged. In the context of our study, we examined two crucial aspects. Firstly, we explored the possibility of selectively extracting methylene blue from a mixture containing another dye, acid yellow 61, using a polymer inclusion membrane (PIM) made of PVA. After characterizing the morphology and porosity of the membrane, we applied kinetic and thermodynamic models to determine the values of permeability (P), initial flux (J0), association constant (Kass), and apparent diffusion coefficient (D*). Subsequently, we measured activation parameters (activation energy (Ea), enthalpy (ΔH#ass), entropy (ΔS#)). Finally, we studied the effect of activated carbon on the processes carried out through the membrane, demonstrating a clear improvement. These results make the membrane developed in this study a potentially pivotal player in the field of membrane separation.

Keywords: dyes, methylene blue, membrane, activated carbon

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Authors: Richard L. Summers

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The advanced computational analysis of biological systems is becoming increasingly dependent upon an understanding of the information-theoretic structure of the materials, energy and interactive processes that comprise those systems. The stability and survival of these living systems are fundamentally contingent upon their ability to acquire and process the meaning of information concerning the physical state of its biological continuum (biocontinuum). The drive for adaptive system reconciliation of a divergence from steady-state within this biocontinuum can be described by an information metric-based formulation of the process for actionable knowledge acquisition that incorporates the axiomatic inference of Kullback-Leibler information minimization driven by survival replicator dynamics. If the mathematical expression of this process is the Lagrangian integrand for any change within the biocontinuum then it can also be considered as an action functional for the living system. In the direct method of Lyapunov, such a summarizing mathematical formulation of global system behavior based on the driving forces of energy currents and constraints within the system can serve as a platform for the analysis of stability. As the system evolves in time in response to biocontinuum perturbations, the summarizing function then conveys information about its overall stability. This stability information portends survival and therefore has absolute existential meaning for the living system. The first derivative of the Lyapunov energy information function will have a negative trajectory toward a system's steady state if the driving force is dissipating. By contrast, system instability leading to system dissolution will have a positive trajectory. The direction and magnitude of the vector for the trajectory then serves as a quantifiable signature of the meaning associated with the living system’s stability information, homeostasis and survival potential.

Keywords: meaning, information, Lyapunov, living systems

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Charlotte Lucke

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This study contributes to the body of literature that analyzes and complicates oversimplified and sensationalized representations of trauma and violence through a close examination and complication of representations of perpetrators of domestic violence in the mass media. This study determines the ways the media frames perpetrators of domestic violence through a qualitative content analysis and socio-ecological approach to the perpetration of violence. While the qualitative analysis has not been carried out, through preliminary research, this study hypothesizes that the media represents perpetrators through tropes such as the 'predator' or 'offender,' or as a demonized 'other.' It is necessary to expose and work through such stereotypes because cultivation theory demonstrates that the mass media determines societal beliefs about and perceptions of the world. Thus, representations of domestic violence in the mass media can lead people to believe that perpetrators of violence are mere animals or criminals and overlook the trauma that many perpetrators experience. When the media represents perpetrators as pure evil, monsters, or absolute 'others,' it leaves out the complexities of what moves people to commit domestic violence. By analyzing and placing media representations of perpetrators into conversation with the socio-ecological approach to violence perpetration, this study complicates domestic violence stereotypes. The socio-ecological model allows researchers to consider the way the interplay between individuals and their families, friends, communities, and cultures can move people to act violently. Using this model, along with psychological and psychoanalytic approaches to the etiology of domestic violence, this paper argues that media stereotypes conceal the way people’s experiences of trauma, along with community and cultural norms, perpetuates the cycle of systemic trauma and violence in the home.

Keywords: domestic violence, media images, representing trauma, theorising trauma

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Authors: Saeid Gharechelou, Stuart Green, Fiona Cawkwell

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Hedgerow has an important role for a wide range of ecological habitats, landscape, agriculture management, carbon sequestration, wood production. Hedgerow detection accurately using satellite imagery is a challenging problem in remote sensing techniques, because in the special approach it is very similar to line object like a road, from a spectral viewpoint, a hedge is very similar to a forest. Remote sensors with very high spatial resolution (VHR) recently enable the automatic detection of hedges by the acquisition of images with enough spectral and spatial resolution. Indeed, recently VHR remote sensing data provided the opportunity to detect the hedgerow as line feature but still remain difficulties in monitoring the characterization in landscape scale. In this research is used the TerraSAR-x Spotlight and Staring mode with 3-5 m resolution in wet and dry season in the test site of Fermoy County, Ireland to detect the hedgerow by acquisition time of 2014-2015. Both dual polarization of Spotlight data in HH/VV is using for detection of hedgerow. The varied method of SAR image technique with try and error way by integration of classification algorithm like texture analysis, support vector machine, k-means and random forest are using to detect hedgerow and its characterization. We are applying the Shannon entropy (ShE) and backscattering analysis in single and double bounce in polarimetric analysis for processing the object-oriented classification and finally extracting the hedgerow network. The result still is in progress and need to apply the other method as well to find the best method in study area. Finally, this research is under way to ahead to get the best result and here just present the preliminary work that polarimetric image of TSX potentially can detect the hedgerow.

Keywords: TerraSAR-X, hedgerow detection, high resolution SAR image, dual polarization, polarimetric analysis

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Authors: Xinchen Zhu

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The rapid fame of the renowned female film star Tang Wei has made her a typical subject (or object) entangled with sensitive issues involving the official ideology, sexuality, and patriarchal values of contemporary China. In 2008, Tang Wei’s official ban has triggered the wave of debates concerning state power and censorship, actor’s rights, sexual ethics, and feminism in the public sphere. Her ban implies that Chinese film censorship acts as a key factor in reconstructing Chinese film stardom. Following the ban, as sensational media texts are re-interpreting the official discourses, the texts also functioned as a crucial vehicle in reconstructing Tang's female image. Therefore, the case study of Tang's film stardom allows us to further explore how female stardom has been entangled with the issues involving official ideology, female sexual ethics, and patriarchal values in contemporary China. This paper argues that Chinese female film stars shoulder the responsibility of film acting which would conform to the official male-dominated values. However, with the development of the Internet, the state no longer remains an absolute control over the new venues. The netizens’ discussion about her ban reshaped Tang’s image as a victim and scapegoat under the unfair oppression of the official authority. Additionally, this paper argues that similar to State’s discourse, netizens’ discourse did not reject patriarchal values, and in turn emphasized Tang Wei’s female chastity.

Keywords: film censorship, Chinese female film stardom, party-state’s power, national discourses, Tang Wei

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Authors: Magdy Al Shourbagi

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Diabetes mellitus is the commonest cause of neuropathy. The common pattern is a distal symmetrical sensory polyneuropathy, associated with autonomic disturbances. Less often, Diabetes mellitus is responsible for a focal or multifocal neuropathy. Common causes for non-healing of diabetic foot are the infection and ischemia. Diabetes mellitus is associated with a defective cellular and humoral immunity. Particularly, decreased phagocytosis, decreased chemotaxis, impaired bacterial killing and abnormal lymphocytic function resulting in a reduced inflammatory reaction and defective wound healing. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy is defined by the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society as a treatment in which a patient intermittently breathes 100% oxygen and the treatment chamber is pressurized to a pressure greater than sea level (1 atmosphere absolute). The pressure increase may be applied in mono-place (single person) or multi-place chambers. Multi-place chambers are pressurized with air, with oxygen given via face mask or endotracheal tube; while mono-place chambers are pressurized with oxygen. Oxygen gas plays an important role in the physiology of wound healing. Hyperbaric oxygen therapy can raise tissue oxygen tensions to levels where wound healing can be expected. HBOT increases the killing ability of leucocytes also it is lethal for certain anaerobic bacteria and inhibits toxin formation in many other anaerobes. Multiple anecdotal reports and studies in HBO therapy in diabetic patients report that HBO can be an effective adjunct therapy in the management of diabetic foot wounds and is associated with better functional outcomes.

Keywords: hyperbari oxygen therapy, diabetic foot, neuropathy, multiplace chambers

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Authors: Novie Nuraini, Sari Hanifa, Yetty Ramli

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Chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) is a common condition after head trauma. Although the size of the thickness of cSDH has an important role in the decision to perform surgery, but the size limit of the thickness is not absolute. In this serial case report, we evaluate three case report of cSDH that indicated to get the surgical procedure because of deficit neurologic and neuroimaging finding with subfalcine herniation more than 0.5 cm and hematoma thickness more than one cm. On the first case, the patient got evacuation hematoma procedure, but the second and third case, we did nonsurgical treatment because the patient and family refused to do the operation. We did the conservative treatment with bed rest and mannitol. Serial radiologic evaluation is done when we found worsening condition. We also reevaluated radiologic examination two weeks after the treatment. The results in this serial case report, the first and second case have a good outcome. On the third case, there was a worsening condition, which in this patient there was a comorbid with type two diabetic mellitus, pneumonie and chronic kidney disease. Some conservative treatment such as bed rest, corticosteroid, mannitol or the other hyperosmolar has a good outcome in patient without neurologic deficits, small hematoma, and or patient without comorbid disease. Evacuate hematome is the best choice in cSDH treatment with deficit neurologic finding. Afterall, there is some condition that we can not do the surgical procedure. Serial radiologic examination needed after two weeks to evaluate the treatment or if there is any worsening condition.

Keywords: chronic subdural hematoma, traumatic brain injury, surgical treatment, nonsurgical treatment, outcome

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Authors: Jeries J. Abou-Hanna

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Several techniques exist for determining stress-intensity factors in linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis. These techniques are based on analytical, numerical, and empirical approaches that have been well documented in literature and engineering handbooks. However, not all techniques share the same merit. In addition to overly-conservative results, the numerical methods that require extensive computational effort, and those requiring copious user parameters hinder practicing engineers from efficiently evaluating stress-intensity factors. This paper investigates the prospects of reducing the complexity and required variables to determine stress-intensity factors through the utilization of the stress gradient and a weighting function. The heart of this work resides in the understanding that fracture emanating from stress concentration locations cannot be explained by a single maximum stress value approach, but requires use of a critical volume in which the crack exists. In order to understand the effectiveness of this technique, this study investigated components of different notch geometry and varying levels of stress gradients. Two forms of weighting functions were employed to determine stress-intensity factors and results were compared to analytical exact methods. The results indicated that the “exponential” weighting function was superior to the “absolute” weighting function. An error band +/- 10% was met for cases ranging from a steep stress gradient in a sharp v-notch to the less severe stress transitions of a large circular notch. The incorporation of the proposed method has shown to be a worthwhile consideration.

Keywords: fracture mechanics, finite element method, stress intensity factor, stress gradient

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Authors: Ozlem Temiz Arpaci, Meryem Tasci, Hakan Goker

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Benzimidazole, a structural isostere of indol and purine nuclei that can interact with biopolymers, can be identified as master key. So that benzimidazole compounds are important fragments in medicinal chemistry because of their wide range of biological activities including antimicrobial activity. We planned to synthesize some benzimidazole compounds for developing new antimicrobial drug candidates. In this study, we put some heterocyclic rings on second position and an amidine group on the fifth position of benzimidazole ring and synthesized them using a multiple step procedure. For the synthesis of the compounds, as the first step, 4-chloro-3-nitrobenzonitrile was reacted with cyclohexylamine in dimethyl formamide. Imidate esters (compound 2) were then prepared with absolute ethanol saturated with dry HCl gas. These imidate esters which were not too stable were converted to compound 3 by passing ammonia gas through ethanol. At the Pd / C catalyst, the nitro group is reduced to the amine group (compound 4). Finally, various aldehyde derivatives were reacted with sodium metabisulfite addition products to give compound 5-20. Melting points were determined on a Buchi B-540 melting point apparatus in open capillary tubes and are uncorrected. Elemental analyses were done a Leco CHNS 932 elemental analyzer. 1H-NMR and 13C-NMR spectra were recorded on a Varian Mercury 400 MHz spectrometer using DMSO-d6. Mass spectra were acquired on a Waters Micromass ZQ using the ESI(+) method. The structures of them were supported by spectral data. The 1H-NMR, 13C NMR and mass spectra and elemental analysis results agree with those of the proposed structures. Antimicrobial activity studies of the synthesized compounds are under the investigation.

Keywords: benzimidazoles, synthesis, structure elucidation, antimicrobial

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Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

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A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula

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Authors: Kareem Adedokun

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Official secrecy is one of the colonial vestiges which upholds non – disclosure of essential information for public consumption. Information, though an indispensable tool in tax administration, is not to be divulged by any person in an official duty of the revenue agency. As a matter o fact, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, 2007 emphasizes secrecy and confidentiality in dealing with tax payer’s document, information, returns and assessment in a manner reminiscent of protecting tax payer’s privacy in all situations. It is so serious that any violation attracts criminal sanction. However, Nigeria, being a democratic and egalitarian state recently enacted Freedom of Information Act which heralded in openness in governance and takes away the confidentialities associated with official secrets Laws. Official secrecy no doubts contradicts the philosophy of freedom of information but maintaining a proper balance between protected rights of tax payers and public interest which revenue agency upholds is an uphill task. Adopting the Doctrinal method, therefore, the author of this paper probes into the real nature of the relationship between taxpayers and Revenue Agencies. It also interfaces official secrecy with the doctrine of Freedom of Information and consequently queries the retention of non – disclosure clause under Federal Inland Revenue Service (Establishment) Act (FIRSEA) 2007. The paper finds among others that non – disclosure provision in tax statutes particularly as provided for in FIRSEA is not absolute; so also is the constitutional rights and freedom of information and unless the non – disclosure clause finds justification under any recognized exemption provided under the Freedom of Information Act, its retention is antithesis to democratic ethos and beliefs as it may hinder public interest and public order.

Keywords: confidentiality, information, official secrecy, tax administration

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Authors: Nikolaos Papadimas, Joanna Bennett, Amir Sakhaei, Timothy Dodwell

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Composite modeling of consolidation processes is playing an important role in the process and part design by indicating the formation of possible unwanted prior to expensive experimental iterative trial and development programs. Composite materials in their uncured state display complex constitutive behavior, which has received much academic interest, and this with different models proposed. Errors from modeling and statistical which arise from this fitting will propagate through any simulation in which the material model is used. A general hyperelastic polynomial representation was proposed, which can be readily implemented in various nonlinear finite element packages. In our case, FEniCS was chosen. The coefficients are assumed uncertain, and therefore the distribution of parameters learned using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In engineering, the approach often followed is to select a single set of model parameters, which on average, best fits a set of experiments. There are good statistical reasons why this is not a rigorous approach to take. To overcome these challenges, A hierarchical Bayesian framework was proposed in which population distribution of model parameters is inferred from an ensemble of experiments tests. The resulting sampled distribution of hyperparameters is approximated using Maximum Entropy methods so that the distribution of samples can be readily sampled when embedded within a stochastic finite element simulation. The methodology is validated and demonstrated on a set of consolidation experiments of AS4/8852 with various stacking sequences. The resulting distributions are then applied to stochastic finite element simulations of the consolidation of curved parts, leading to a distribution of possible model outputs. With this, the paper, as far as the authors are aware, represents the first stochastic finite element implementation in composite process modelling.

Keywords: data-driven , material consolidation, stochastic finite elements, surrogate models

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Authors: Hamidoddin Yousefi, Ahmad Nikbakht

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The Sistan Plain, situated in the Balochistan region of southeastern Iran, is renowned for its arid climatic conditions and prevailing winds that persist for approximately 120 days annually. The region faces multiple challenges, including drought susceptibility, exacerbated by wind erosion, temperature fluctuations, and the influence of policies implemented by neighboring Afghanistan and Iran. This study focuses on investigating the characteristics of jet streams within the Sistan Plain and their implications for global climate change. Various models are employed to analyze convective mass fluxes, horizontal moisture transport, temporal variance, and the calculation of radiation convective equilibrium within the atmosphere. Key considerations encompass the distribution of relative humidity, dry air, and absolute humidity. Moreover, the research aims to predict the interplay between jet streams and human activities, particularly regarding their environmental impacts and water scarcity. The investigation encompasses both local and global environmental consequences, drawing upon historical climate change data and comprehensive field research. The anticipated outcomes of this study hold substantial potential for mitigating global climate change and its associated environmental ramifications. By comprehending the dynamics of jet streams and their interconnections with human activities, effective strategies can be formulated to address water scarcity and minimize environmental degradation.

Keywords: Sistani plain, Baluchistan, Hamoun lake, climate change, jet streams, environmental impact, water scarcity, mitigation

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Authors: Maher J. Tadros, Yaseen Ananbeh

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The study area is located in Ajluon Forest Reserve northern part of Jordan. It consists of Mediterranean hills dominated by open woodlands of oak and pistachio. The aims of the study were to investigate the positive and negative relationships between the locals and the protected area and how it can affect the long-term forest conservation. The main research objectives are to review the impact of establishing Ajloun Forest Reserve on nature conservation and on the livelihood level of local communities around the reserve. The Ajloun forest reserve plays a fundamental role in Ajloun area development. The existence of initiatives of nature conservation in the area supports various socio-economic activities around the reserve that contribute towards the development of local communities in Ajloun area. A part of this research was to conduct a survey to study the impact of Ajloun forest reserve on biodiversity composition. Also, studying the biodiversity content especially for vegetation to determine the economic impacts of Ajloun forest reserve on its surroundings was studied. In this study, several methods were used to fill the objectives including point-centered quarter method which involves selecting randomly 50 plots at the study site. The collected data from the field showed that the absolute density was (1031.24 plant per hectare). Density was recorded and found to be the highest for Quecus coccifera, and relative density of (73.7%), this was followed by Arbutus andrachne and relative density (7.1%), Pistacia palaestina and relative density (10.5%) and Crataegus azarulus (82.5 p/ha) and relative density (5.1%),

Keywords: composition, density, frequency, importance value, point-centered quarter, structure, tree cover

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Authors: Leng Jian-Wei, Wang Lai-Jun, Li Ye

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In order to measure and analyze the transportation situation within the counties of Shaanxi province over a certain period of time and to promote the province's future transportation planning and development, this paper proposes a reasonable layout plan and compares model rationality. The study uses entropy weight method to measure the transportation advantages of 107 counties in Shaanxi province from three dimensions: road network density, trunk line influence and location advantage in 2013 and 2021, and applies spatial autocorrelation analysis method to analyze the spatial layout and development trend of county-level transportation, and conducts ordinary least square (OLS)regression on transportation impact factors and other influencing factors. The paper also compares the regression fitting degree of the Geographically weighted regression(GWR) model and the OLS model. The results show that spatially, the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province generally show a decreasing trend from the Weihe Plain to the surrounding areas and mainly exhibit high-high clustering phenomenon. Temporally, transportation advantages show an overall upward trend, and the phenomenon of spatial imbalance gradually decreases. People's travel demands have changed to some extent, and the demand for rapid transportation has increased overall. The GWR model regression fitting degree of transportation advantages is 0.74, which is higher than the OLS regression model's fitting degree of 0.64. Based on the evolution of transportation advantages, it is predicted that this trend will continue for a period of time in the future. To improve the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province increasing the layout of rapid transportation can effectively enhance the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province. When analyzing spatial heterogeneity, geographic factors should be considered to establish a more reliable model

Keywords: traffic dominance, GWR model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, temporal and spatial evolution

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Authors: Samira K. Al-Nasser, Siamak Noroozi, Roya Haratian, Adrian Harvey

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A total knee replacement (TKR) is a surgical procedure necessary when there is severe pain and/or loss of function in the knee. Surgeons balance the load in the knee and the surrounding soft tissue by feeling the tension at different ranges of motion. This method can be unreliable and lead to early failure of the joint. The ideal kinematics and load distribution have been debated significantly based on previous biomechanical studies surrounding both TKRs and normal knees. Intraoperative sensors like VERASENSE and eLibra have provided a method for the quantification of the load indicating a balanced knee. A review of the literature written about intraoperative sensors and tension/stability of the knee was done. Studies currently debate the quantification of the load in medial and lateral compartments specifically. However, most research reported that following a TKR the medial compartment was loaded more heavily than the lateral compartment. In several cases, these results were shown to increase the success of the surgery because they mimic the normal kinematics of the knee. In conclusion, most research agrees that an intercompartmental load differential of between 10 and 20 pounds, where the medial load was higher than the lateral, and an absolute load of less than 70 pounds was ideal. However, further intraoperative sensor development could help improve the accuracy and understanding of the load distribution on the surgical outcomes in a TKR. A reduction in early revision surgeries for TKRs would provide an improved quality of life for patients and reduce the economic burden placed on both the National Health Service (NHS) and the patient.

Keywords: intraoperative sensors, joint load forces, kinematics, load balancing, and total knee replacement

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Authors: Mohammad Soltani Renani

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The problem of evil is one of the heated battlegrounds of the idea of theism and its critics. Since time immemorial and in various philosophical schools and religions, the belief in an Omniscient, Omnipotent, and Absolutely Good God has been considered inconsistent with the existence of the evil in the universe. The theist thinkers have generally adopted one of the following four ways for answering this problem: denial of the existence of evil or considering it to be relative, privation theory of evil, attribution of evil to something other than God, and depiction of an alternative picture of God. Defense or criticism of these alternative answers have given rise to an extensive and unending dispute. However, evaluation of the presupposition and context upon/in which a question is raised precedes offering an answer to it. This point in the discussion of the problem of evil is of paramount importance for both parties, i.e., questioners and answerers, that the attributes of knowledge, power, love, good-will, among others, can be supposed to be infinite only in the essence of the attributed and the domain of potentiality but what can be realized in the domain of actuality is always finite. Therefore, infinite nature of Divine Attributes and realization of evil belong to two spheres. Divine Attributes are infinite (absolute) in Divine Essence, but when they are created, each one becomes bounded by the other. This boundedness is a result of the state of being surrounded of the attributes by each other in finite world of possibility. Evil also appears in this limited world. This inconsistency leads to the collapse of the problem of evil from within: the place of infinity of the Divine Attributes, in the words of Muslim mystics, lies in the Holiest Manifestation [Feyze Aqdas] while evil emerges in the Holy Manifestation where the Divine Attributes become bounded by each other. This idea is neither a new answer to the problem of evil nor a defense of theism; rather it reveals a logical inconsistency in the discussion of the problem of evil.

Keywords: problem of evil, infinity of divine attributes, boundedness of divine attributes, holiest manifestation, holy manifestation

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Authors: Elizabeta Sivevska, Sunchica Petrovska, Vaska Antevska, Lidija Todorovska, Sanja Manchevska, Beti Dejanova, Ivanka Karagjozova, Jasmina Pluncevic Gligoroska

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Introduction: Body composition plays an important role in the selection of young soccer players and it is associated with their successful performance. The most commonly used model of body composition divides the body into two compartments: fat components and fat-free mass (muscular and bone components). The aims of the study were to determine the body composition parameters of young male soccer players and to show the differences in age groups. Material and methods: A sample of 52 young male soccer players, with an age span from 9 to 14 years were divided into two groups according to the age (group 1 aged 9 to 12 years and group 2 aged 12 to 14 years). Anthropometric measurements were taken according to the method of Mateigka. The following measurements were made: body weight, body height, circumferences (arm, forearm, thigh and calf), diameters (elbow, knee, wrist, ankle) and skinfold thickness (biceps, triceps, thigh, leg, chest, abdomen). The measurements were used in Mateigka’s equations. Results: Body mass components were analyzed as absolute values (in kilograms) and as percentage values: the muscular component (MC kg and MC%), the bone component (BCkg and BC%) and the body fat (BFkg and BF%). The group up to 12 years showed the following mean values of the analyzed parameters: MM=21.5kg; MM%=46.3%; BC=8.1kg; BC%=19.1%; BF= 6.3kg; BF%= 15.7%. The second group aged 12-14 year had mean values of body composition parameters as follows: MM=25.6 kg; MM%=48.2%; BC = 11.4 kg; BC%=21.6%; BF= 8.5 kg; BF%= 14. 7%. Conclusions: The young soccer players aged 12 up to 14 years who are in the pre-pubertal phase of growth and development had higher bone component (p<0.05) compared to younger players. There is no significant difference in muscular and fat body component between the two groups of young soccer players.

Keywords: body composition, young soccer players, body fat, fat-free mass

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Authors: Megersa Dugasa Fite

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This paper analyses regulatory and supervisory issues in the Ethiopian micro finance sector, which caters to the needs of those who have been excluded from the formal financial sector. Micro-finance has received increased importance in development because of its grand goal to give credits to the poor to raise their economic and social well-being and improve the quality of lives. The micro-finance at present has been moving towards a credit-plus period through covering savings and insurance functions. It thus helps in reducing the rate of financial exclusion and social segregation, alleviating poverty and, consequently, stimulating development. The Ethiopian micro finance policy has been generally positive and developmental but major regulatory and supervisory limitations such as the absolute prohibition of NGOs to participate in micro credit functions, higher risks for depositors of micro-finance institutions, lack of credit information services with research and development, the unmet demand, and risks of market failures due to over-regulation are disappointing. Therefore, to remove the limited reach and high degree of problems typical in the informal means of financial intermediation plus to deal with the failure of formal banks to provide basic financial services to a significant portion of the country’s population, more needs to be done on micro finance. Certain key regulatory and supervisory revisions hence need to be taken to strengthen the Ethiopian micro finance sector so that it can practically provide majority poor access to a range of high quality financial services that help them work their way out of poverty and the incapacity it imposes.

Keywords: micro-finance, micro-finance regulation and supervision, micro-finance institutions, financial access, social segregation, poverty alleviation, development, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sobia Mushtaq, Firdaus E. Bareen, Asma Tayyeb

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This study conducted to investigate the metal biosorption potential of indigenous Trichoderma species (T. harzianum KS05T01, T. longibrachiatum KS09T03, Trichoderma sp KS17T09., T. viridi KS17T011, T. atrobruneo KS21T014, and T. citrinoviride) that have been isolated from contaminated soil of Kasur Tannery Waste Management Agency. The effect of different biosorption parameters as initial metal ion concentration, pH, contact time , and temperature of incubation was investigated on the biosorption potential of these species. The metal removal efficiency and (E%) and metal uptake capacity (mg/g) increased along with the increase of initial metal concentration in media. The Trichoderma species can tolerate and survive under heavy metal stress up to 800mg/L. Among the two isotherm models were applied on the biosorption data, Langmuir isotherm model and Freundlich isotherm model, maximum correlation coefficients values (R 2 ) of 1was found for Langmuir model, which showed the better fitted model for the Trichoderma biosorption. The metal biosorption was increased with the increase of temperature and pH of the media. The maximum biosorption was observed between 25-30 o C and at pH 6.-7.5, while the biosorption rate was increased from 3-6 days of incubation, and then the rate of biosorption was slowed down. The biosorption data was better fitted for Pseudo kinetic first order during the initial days of biosorption. Thermodynamic parameters as standard Gibbs free energy (G), standard enthalpy change (H), and standard entropy (S) were calculated. The results confirmed the heavy metal biosorption by Trichoderma species was endothermic and spontaneous reaction in nature. The FTIR spectral analysis and SEM-EDX analysis of the treated and controlled mycelium revealed the changes in the active functional sites and morphological variations of the outer surface. The data analysis envisaged that high metal tolerance exhibited by Trichoderma species indicates its potential as efficacious and successful mediator for bioremediation of the heavy metal polluted environments.

Keywords: heavy metal, fungal biomass, biosorption, kinetics

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Authors: Marwan Khalil Qader, Arshad Mohammad Abdullah

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Antimicrobial resistance is a major cause of significant morbidity and mortality globally. Seven plant extracts (Plantago mediastepposa, Quercusc infectoria, Punic granatum, Thymus lcotschyana, Ginger officeinals, Rhus angustifolia and Cinnamon) were collected from different regions of Kurdistan region of Iraq. These plants’ extracts were dissolved in absolute ethanol and distillate water, after which they were assayed in vitro as an antimicrobial activity against Candida tropicalis, Candida albicanus, Candida dublinensis, Candida krusei and Candida glabrata also against 2 Gram-positive (Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus) and 3 Gram-negative bacteria (Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Klebsilla pneumonia). The antimicrobial activity was determined in ethanol extracts and distilled water extracts of these plants. The ethanolic extracts of Q. infectoria showed the maximum activity against all species of Candida fungus. The minimum inhibition zone of the Punic granatum ethanol extracts was 0.2 mg/ml for all microorganisms tested. Klebsilla pneumonia was the most sensitive bacterial strain to Quercusc infectoria and Rhus angustifolia ethanol extracts. Among both Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria tested with MIC of 0.2 mg/ml, the minimum inhibition zone of Ginger officeinals D. W. extracts was 0.2 mg/mL against Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Klebsilla pneumonia. The most sensitive bacterial strain to Thymus lcotschyana and Plantago mediastepposa D.W. extracts was S. aureus and E. coli.

Keywords: antimicrobial activity, pathogenic bacteria, plant extracts, chemical systems engineering

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Authors: Joseph F. Cabrera, Rachael Dela Cruz

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This study specifically examines patterns that define ethnoracially diverse neighborhoods. Ethnoracial diversity is important as it facilitates cross-racial interactions within neighborhoods which have been theorized to be associated with such outcomes as intergroup harmony, the reduction of racial and ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and increases in racial tolerance. Los Angeles (LA) is an ideal location to study ethnoracial spatial patterns as it is one of the most ethnoracially diverse cities in the world. A large influx of Latinos, as well as Asians, have contributed to LA’s urban landscape becoming increasingly diverse over several decades. Our dataset contains all census tracts in Los Angeles County in 2016 and incorporates Census and ACS demographic and spatial data. We quantify ethnoracial diversity using a derivative of Simpson’s Diversity Index and utilize this measure to test previous literature that suggests Latinos are one of the key drivers of changing ethnoracial spatial patterns in Los Angeles. Preliminary results suggest that there has been an overall increase in ethnoracial diversity in Los Angeles neighborhoods over the past sixteen years. Patterns associated with this trend include decreases in predominantly white and black neighborhoods, increases in predominantly Latino and Asian neighborhoods, and a general decrease in the white populations of the most diverse neighborhoods. A similar pattern is seen in neighborhoods with large Latino increases- a decrease in white population, but with an increase in Asian and black populations. We also found support for previous research that suggests increases in Latino and Asian populations act as a buffer, allowing for black population increases without a sizeable decrease in the white population. Future research is needed to understand the underlying causes involved in many of the patterns and trends highlighted in this study.

Keywords: race, race and interaction, racial harmony, social interaction

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Biruhi Tesfaye, Avinash M. Potdar

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The laboratory test process to determine the California bearing ratio (CBR) of black cotton soils is not only overpriced but also time-consuming as well. Hence advanced prediction of CBR plays a significant role as it is applicable In pavement design. The prediction of CBR of treated soil was executed by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) which is a Computational tool based on the properties of the biological neural system. To observe CBR values, combined eggshell and waste glass was added to soil as 4, 8, 12, and 16 % of the weights of the soil samples. Accordingly, the laboratory related tests were conducted to get the required best model. The maximum CBR value found at 5.8 at 8 % of eggshell waste glass powder addition. The model was developed using CBR as an output layer variable. CBR was considered as a function of the joint effect of liquid limit, plastic limit, and plastic index, optimum moisture content and maximum dry density. The best model that has been found was ANN with 5, 6 and 1 neurons in the input, hidden and output layer correspondingly. The performance of selected ANN has been 0.99996, 4.44E-05, 0.00353 and 0.0067 which are correlation coefficient (R), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) respectively. The research presented or summarized above throws light on future scope on stabilization with waste glass combined with different percentages of eggshell that leads to the economical design of CBR acceptable to pavement sub-base or base, as desired.

Keywords: CBR, artificial neural network, liquid limit, plastic limit, maximum dry density, OMC

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Authors: Mengistu Gizaw Gawo, Bisrat Yoseph Gebrehiwot

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Petroleum fuels have become a threat to the world because of their toxic emissions. Besides, it is unknown how long they will last. The only known fact is that they are depleting rapidly and will not last long. So the world’s concern about finding environmentally friendly alternative fuels has increased recently. Hence alcohol fuels are found to be the most convenient alternatives to use in internal combustion engines. This research intends to introduce Ethiopian locally produced alcohol as an alternative in the blended form with gasoline to use in spark ignition engines. The traditionally distilled Arekie was purchased from a local producer and purified using fractional distillation. Then five Arekie-gasoline blends were prepared with the proportion of 5,10,15,20 and 25%v/v (A5, A10, A15, A20, and A25, respectively). Also, absolute ethanol was purchased from a local supplier, and ethanol-gasoline blends were prepared with a similar proportion as Arekie-gasoline blends (E5, E10, E15, E20, and E25). Then an experiment was conducted on a single-cylinder, 4-stroke, spark-ignition engine running at a constant speed of 2500 rpm and variable loads to investigate the performance and emission characteristics. Results showed that the performance and emission parameters are significantly improved as the ratio of Arekie and ethanol in gasoline increases at all loads. Among all tested fuels, E20 exhibited better performance, and E25 exhibited better emission. A20 provided a slightly lower performance than E20 but was much improved compared to pure gasoline. A25 provided comparable emissions with E25 and was much better than pure gasoline. Generally, adding up to 20%v/v Ethiopian Arekie in gasoline could make a better, renewable alternative to spark ignition engines.

Keywords: alcohol fuels, alternative fuels, pollutant emissions, spark-ignition engine, Arekie-gasoline blends

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