Search results for: collaborative relationship

Authors: Venuka Kuruwita Arachchige Don, Mohamed Shaheen, Chris Goodier

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Aerated autoclaved concrete (AAC) is known for its lightweight, easy handling, high thermal insulation, and extremely porous structure. Investigation of pore behavior in AAC is crucial for characterizing the material, standardizing design and production techniques, enhancing the mechanical, durability, and thermal performance, studying the effectiveness of protective measures, and analyzing the effects of weather conditions. The significant details of pores are complicated to observe with acknowledged accuracy. The High-resolution Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) image analysis is a promising technique for investigating the pore behavior and density of AAC, which is adopted in this study. Mercury intrusion porosimeter and gas pycnometer were employed to characterize porosity distribution and density parameters. The analysis considered three different densities of AAC blocks and three layers in the altitude direction within each block. A set of understandings was presented to extract and analyze the details of pore shape, pore size, pore connectivity, and pore percentages from FESEM images of AAC. Average pore behavior outcomes per unit area were presented. Comparison of porosity distribution and density parameters revealed significant variations. FESEM imaging offered unparalleled insights into porosity behavior, surpassing the capabilities of other techniques. The analysis conducted from a multi-staged approach provides porosity percentage occupied by various pore categories, total porosity, variation of pore distribution compared to AAC densities and layers, number of two-dimensional and three-dimensional pores, variation of apparent and matrix densities concerning pore behaviors, variation of pore behavior with respect to aluminum content, and relationship among shape, diameter, connectivity, and percentage in each pore classification.

Keywords: autoclaved aerated concrete, density, imaging technique, microstructure, porosity behavior

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Authors: Chulpan Gromova, Rezeda Khairutdinova, Dina Birman

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One of the most significant issues that schools all over the world face today is the ways teachers respond to increasing diversity. The study was informed by the tripartite model of multicultural competence, with awareness of personal biases a necessary component, together with knowledge of different cultures, and skills to work with students from diverse backgrounds. The paper presents the results of qualitative descriptive studies that help to understand how school teachers in Russia treat migrant children, how they solve the problems of adaptation of migrant children. The purpose of this study was to determine: a) educational practices used by primary school teachers when working with migrant children; b) relationship between practices and attitudes of teachers. Empirical data were collected through interviews. The participants were informed that a conversation was being recorded. They were also warned that the study was voluntary, absolutely anonymous, no personal data was disclosed. Consent was received from 20 teachers. The findings were analyzed using directive content analysis (Graneheim and Lundman, 2004). The analysis was deductive according to the categories of practices and attitudes identified in the literature review and enriched inductively to identify variation within these categories. Studying practices is an essential part of preparing future teachers for working in a multicultural classroom. For language and academic support, teachers mostly use individual work. In order to create a friendly classroom climate and environment teachers have productive conversations with students, organize multicultural events for the whole school or just for an individual class. The majority of teachers have positive attitudes toward migrant children. In most cases, positive attitudes lead to high expectations for their academic achievements. Conceptual orientation of teacher attitudes toward cultural diversity is mostly pluralistic. Positive attitudes, high academic expectations and conceptual orientation toward pluralism are favorably reflected in teachers’ practice.

Keywords: intercultural education, migrant children schooling, teachers attitudes, teaching practices

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Authors: Afsaneh Mohammadnejad, Marianne Nygaard, Jan Baumbach, Shuxia Li, Weilong Li, Jesper Lund, Jacob v. B. Hjelmborg, Lene Christensen, Qihua Tan

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Cognitive impairment in the elderly is a key issue affecting the quality of life. Despite a strong genetic background in cognition, only a limited number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been found. These explain a small proportion of the genetic component of cognitive function, thus leaving a large proportion unaccounted for. We hypothesize that one reason for this missing heritability is the misspecified modeling in data analysis concerning phenotype distribution as well as the relationship between SNP dosage and the phenotype of interest. In an attempt to overcome these issues, we introduced a model-free method based on the generalized correlation coefficient (GCC) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of cognitive function in twin samples and compared its performance with two popular linear regression models. The GCC-based GWAS identified two genome-wide significant (P-value < 5e-8) SNPs; rs2904650 near ZDHHC2 on chromosome 8 and rs111256489 near CD6 on chromosome 11. The kinship model also detected two genome-wide significant SNPs, rs112169253 on chromosome 4 and rs17417920 on chromosome 7, whereas no genome-wide significant SNPs were found by the linear mixed model (LME). Compared to the linear models, more meaningful biological pathways like GABA receptor activation, ion channel transport, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, and the renin-angiotensin system were found to be enriched by SNPs from GCC. The GCC model outperformed the linear regression models by identifying more genome-wide significant genetic variants and more meaningful biological pathways related to cognitive function. Moreover, GCC-based GWAS was robust in handling genetically related twin samples, which is an important feature in handling genetic confounding in association studies.

Keywords: cognition, generalized correlation coefficient, GWAS, twins

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Authors: Saira Maqbool, Qaisara Parveen, Muhammad Arshad Dahar

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Improving females' involvement in management and enterprises in Pakistan requires the development of female entrepreneurs as leaders. Entrepreneurial education aims for providing students the knowledge, aptitudes and motivation to energize innovative accomplishment in various settings. Assortments of venture instruction are advertised at all stages of mentoring, from fundamental or discretionary institutes through graduate institutional platforms. The business enterprise will be considered the procedure by which a looming business visionary or business person pursues after openings without respect to the resources they directly regulate. This entails the ability of the business visionary to join every single other generation. This study explores the relationship between developing Women's Leadership skills and Entrepreneurship Education The essential reason for this consider was to analyze the role of Entrepreneurship Edification (EE) towards women's Leadership and develop entrepreneurial intentions among students. The major goal of this study was to foster entrepreneurial attitudes among PMAS Arid Agriculture University undergraduate students concerning their choice to work for themselves. This study focuses on the motivation and interest of female students in the social sciences to build entrepreneurial leadership skills. The quantitative analysis used a true-experimental, pretest-posttest control group research design. Female undergraduate students from PMAS Arid Agriculture University made up the study population. For entrepreneurial activity, a training module has been created. The students underwent a three-week training program at PMAS Arid Agriculture University, where they learned about entrepreneurial leadership abilities. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and T-tests. The findings indicated that students acquired entrepreneurial leadership skills and intentions after training. They have decided to launch their businesses as leaders. It is advised that other PMAS Arid Agriculture University departments use the training module and course outline because the research's usage of them has important results.

Keywords: business, entrepreneurial, intentions, leadership, women

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Authors: Luísa Pedro, José Pais-Ribeiro, João Páscoa Pinheiro

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Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that affects more often young adults in the prime of his career and personal development, with no cure and unknown causes. The most common signs and symptoms are fatigue, muscle weakness, changes in sensation, ataxia, changes in balance, gait difficulties, memory difficulties, cognitive impairment and difficulties in problem solving. MS is a relatively common neurological disorder in which various impairments and disabilities impact strongly on function and daily life activities. The aim of this study is to examine the implications of the program of self-regulation in the perception of illness and mental health (psychological well-being domain) in MS patients. MS is a relatively common neurological disorder in which various impairments and disabilities impact strongly on function and daily life activities. The aim of this study is to examine the implications of the program of self-regulation in the perception of illness and mental health (psychological well-being domain) in MS patients. After this, a set of exercises was implemented to be used in daily life activities, according to studies developed with MS patients. We asked the subjects the question “Please classify the severity of your disease?” and used the domain of psychological well-being, the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-38) at the beginning (time A) and end (time B) of the program of self-regulation. We used the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20. A non-parametric statistical hypothesis test (Wilcoxon test) was used for the variable analysis. The intervention followed the recommendations of the Helsinki Declaration. The age range of the subjects was between 20 and 58 years with a mean age of 44 years. 58.3 % were women, 37.5 % were currently married, 67% were retired and the mean level of education was 12.5 years. In the correlation between the severity of the disease perception and psychological well before the self-regulation program, an obtained result (r = 0.26, p <0.05), then the self-regulation program, was (r = 0.37, p <0.01), from a low to moderate correlation. We conclude that the program of self-regulation for physical activity in patients with MS can improve the relationship between the perception of disease severity and psychological well-being.

Keywords: psychological well-being, multiple sclerosis, self-regulation, physical activity

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Authors: Isaac Diaka, Matsui Kenichi

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Ghana’s rice production has increased mainly because of increased cultivated areas. On this point, scholars who promoted crop production increase for food security have overlooked the fact that its per-acre yield has not increased. Also, Ghana’s domestic rice production has not contributed much to domestic rice consumption especially in major cities where consumers tend to rely on imported rice from Asia. Considering these points, the paper seeks to understand why smallholder rice farmers have not been able to increase per acre rice yield. It also examines smallholder rice farmers’ rice yield improvement needs, and the relationship that exist between rice farmers’ socioeconomic factors and their yield levels by rice varieties. The study adopted a simple random sampling technique to select 154 rice farmers for a questionnaire survey between October and November 2020. The data was analyzed by performing a correlation analysis, an independent t-test, and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance. The results showed that 58.4% of the respondents cultivated popular high-yield varieties like AGRA and Jasmine. The rest used local varieties. Regarding respondents’ yield differentials, AGRA and Jasmine had an average yield of 2.6 mt/ha, which is higher than that of local varieties (1.6mt/ha). The study found untimely availability of improved seed varieties and high cost of inputs some of the major reasons affecting yield in the area. For respondents’ yield improvement needs, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance showed that access to improved varieties, irrigation infrastructure, and row planting were respondents’ major technological needs. As to their non-technological needs, the respondents needed timely information about rice production, access to credit support options, and extension services. The correlation analysis revealed that farm size and off-farm income exhibited a positive and negative association towards respondents’ yield level, respectively. This paper then discusses recommendations for providing with improved rice production technologies to farmers.

Keywords: Ghana, rice, smallholder farmers, yield improvement.

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Authors: Igbekoyi Olusola Esther, Olurankinse Felix

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This paper examined the factors that militate against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State Nigeria and the effect of intestate death on business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneurs. The paper was written with a view to providing information on the reasons why intestate death is common among entrepreneurs in Ondo State and the effects on continuity of business after death of the initial owners. Data were obtained from primary source through the administration of questionnaires to entrepreneurs drawn from 50 registered manufacturing companies. These companies have been in existence for a minimum of 10 years with minimum staff strength of 20 workers each. These companies were selected using the purposive random sampling technique in order to capture firms that meet the requirements of this paper. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square and regression analysis. The findings of the paper revealed that administration of Will, traditional beliefs, Will execution procedures, age and non- admissibility of Wills in court are the major factors that militates against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State. It was also discovered that chaos and instability in business, reduction in sales and productivity, poor succession planning, polygamous nature of marriages, difficulty in sourcing for funds and gender preference are joint predictors of business continuity in event intestate death which is evident in the result where R2 =.954;(F 6, 26)= 89.644; (P < 0.01). The individual beta co-efficient, t- statistics and significance of each variable revealed that gender preference (.735; 7.031; .000) and poor succession plan (.402; 2.840; .009) have significant positive effect on business continuity; while reduction in sales and productivity (-.059; -.335; .740) and difficulty in sourcing for funds (-.217; -1.367; .188) have negative effect; other variables also have positive relationship but they are not significant. It is therefore concluded that business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneur is highly dependent on the rebuilding of confidence on Wills administration in ondo state Nigeria, proper succession planning and elimination of gender preferences.

Keywords: intestacy, business continuity, entrepreneurs, will, succession planning

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Authors: Aamna Lawrence, Ashutosh Mishra

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Tremors occur in 60% of the patients who have Multiple Sclerosis (MS), the most common demyelinating disease that affects the central and peripheral nervous system, and are the primary cause of disability in young adults. While pharmacological agents provide minimal benefits, surgical interventions like Deep Brain Stimulation and Thalamotomy are riddled with dangerous complications which make non-invasive electrical stimulation an appealing treatment of choice for dealing with tremors. Hence, we hypothesized that if the non-invasive electrical stimulation parameters (mainly frequency) can be computed by mathematically modeling the nerve fibre to take into consideration the minutest details of the axon morphologies, tremors due to demyelination can be optimally alleviated. In this computational study, we have modeled the random demyelination pattern in a nerve fibre that typically manifests in MS using the High-Density Hodgkin-Huxley model with suitable modifications to account for the myelin. The internode of the nerve fibre in our model could have up to ten demyelinated regions each having random length and myelin thickness. The arrival time of action potentials traveling the demyelinated and the normally myelinated nerve fibre between two fixed points in space was noted, and its relationship with the nerve fibre radius ranging from 5µm to 12µm was analyzed. It was interesting to note that there were no overlaps between the arrival time for action potentials traversing the demyelinated and normally myelinated nerve fibres even when a single internode of the nerve fibre was demyelinated. The study gave us an opportunity to design DC pulses whose frequency of application would be a function of the random demyelination pattern to block only the delayed tremor-causing action potentials. The DC pulses could be delivered to the peripheral nervous system non-invasively by an electrode bracelet that would suppress any shakiness beyond it thus paving the way for wearable neuro-rehabilitative technologies.

Keywords: demyelination, Hodgkin-Huxley model, non-invasive electrical stimulation, tremor

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

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Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

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Authors: Miao Li, Mengyuan Xu

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As a low-carbon travel mode, bicycling has drawn increasing political interest in the contemporary Chinese urban context, and the public sharing bikes have become the most popular ways of bike usage in China now. This research aims to explore the spatial-temporal relationship between sharing bike usage and different characteristics of the urban street built environment. In the research, street segments were used as the analytic unit of the street built environment defined by street intersections. The sharing bike usage data in the research include a total of 2.64 million samples that are the entire sharing bike distribution data recorded in two days in 2018 within a neighborhood of 185.4 hectares in the city of Wuhan, China. And these data are assigned to the 97 urban street segments in this area based on their geographic location. The built environment variables used in this research are categorized into three sections: 1) street design characteristics, such as street width, street greenery, types of bicycle lanes; 2) condition of other public transportation, such as the availability of metro station; 3) Street function characteristics that are described by the categories and density of the point of interest (POI) along the segments. Spatial Lag Models (SLM) were used in order to reveal the relationships of specific urban streets built environment characteristics and the likelihood of sharing bicycling usage in whole and different periods a day. The results show: 1) there is spatial autocorrelation among sharing bicycling usage of urban streets in case area in general, non-working day, working day and each period of a day, which presents a clustering pattern in the street space; 2) a statistically strong association between bike sharing usage and several different built environment characteristics such as POI density, types of bicycle lanes and street width; 3) the pattern that bike sharing usage is influenced by built environment characteristics depends on the period within a day. These findings could be useful for policymakers and urban designers to better understand the factors affecting bike sharing system and thus propose guidance and strategy for urban street planning and design in order to promote the use of sharing bikes.

Keywords: big data, sharing bike usage, spatial statistics, urban street built environment

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Authors: Nazeema Ahmed

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This paper reports on the development of a student peer mentoring programme at a higher education institution. The programme is dependent on volunteering senior undergraduate students who are trained to mentor first-year students studying towards an engineering degree. The evaluation of the programme took the form of first-year students completing a self-report paper questionnaire at the onset of a lecture and mentors completing their questionnaire electronically. The evaluation yielded mixed findings. Peer mentoring clearly benefited some students in their adjustment to the institution. Specific mentors’ personal attributes enabled the establishment of successful mentoring relationships, where encouragement, advice and academic assistance was provided. Gains were reciprocal with mentors reporting that the programme contributed towards their personal development. Confidence in the programme was expressed in mentors feeling that it was an initiative worth continuing and first-year students agreeing that it be recommended to future first-year students. This was despite many unfavourable experiences of mentors where their professionalism and commitment to the programme was suspect. It is evident that while mentors began with noble intentions they appear either to lose interest or become overwhelmed with their own workload as the academic year progresses. On the other hand, some mentors reported feeling challenged by the apathy of first-year students who failed to maximise the opportunity available to them. The different attitudes towards mentoring that manifested as a mentoring culture in some departments were particularly pertinent to its successful implementation. The findings point to the key role of academic staff in the mentoring programme who model the mentoring relationship in their interaction with student mentors. While their involvement in the programme may be perceived as a drain on resources in an already demanding academic teaching environment, it is imperative that structural changes be put in place for the programme to be both efficient and sustainable. A pervasive finding concerns the evolving institutional culture of student development in the faculty. Mentors and first-year students alike alluded to the potential of the mentoring programme provided it is seriously endorsed at both the departmental and faculty level. The findings provide a foundation from which to develop the programme further and to begin improving its capacity for maximizing student retention in South African higher education.

Keywords: engineering students, first-year students, peer mentoring

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Authors: Zarabizan Zakaria, Hayati Zainal

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The construction industry is one of the most important sectors that contribute to the nation’s economy and catalyze towards the growth of other industries. However, some construction projects have not been completed on its stipulated time and duration, scope and budget due to several factors. This problem arises due to the weaknesses of human factors, especially from ineffective leadership quality practiced by project managers and contractors in managing project teams. Therefore, a construction project should impose the element of Project Team. The project team is formed in the implementation of the project which includes the project brief, project scope, customer requirements and provided designs. Many organizations in the construction sector use teams to meet today's global competition and customer expectations, however, team effectiveness evaluation is required. In insuring the construction team is successful and effectiveness, the construction department must encourage, measure, set up, and evaluate or review the effectiveness of project team that was formed. In order to produce a better outcome for a high-end project, an effective and efficient project team is required which also help in increasing overall productivity. The purpose of this study is to determine the role of team effectiveness in the construction project team based on the overall construction project performance. It examines several different factors which related to team effectiveness. It also examines the relationship between team effectiveness factor and project performance aspect. Team Effect Review and Project Performance Review are developed to be used for data collection. Data collected were analyzed using several statistical tests. Results obtained from data analysis are validated using semi-structured interviews. Besides that, a comprehensive survey were developed to assess the way construction project teams in order to maintain its effectiveness throughout the project phase. In order to determine a project successful it has been found that Project Team Leadership is the most important factor. In addition, the definition of team effectiveness in the construction project team is developed based on the perspective of project clients and project team members. The results of this study are expected to provide an idea on the factors that are needed to be focused on improving the team's effectiveness towards project performance aspects. At the same time, the definition of team effectiveness from team members and owner views has been developed in order to provide a better understanding of the word team's effectiveness in construction projects.

Keywords: project team, leadership, construction project, project successful

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Authors: Roya Morad, W. Eirik Heintz

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The identity of a neighborhood is inevitably shaped by the architecture and the people of that place. Conventionally the streets within each neighborhood served as a semi-public-private extension of the private living spaces. The street as a design element formed a hybrid condition that was neither totally public nor private, and it encouraged social interactions. Thus through creating a sense of community, one of the most basic human needs of belonging was achieved. Similar to major global cities, Tehran has undergone serious urbanization. Developing into a capital city of high rises has resulted in an increase in urban density. Although allocating more residential units in each neighborhood was a critical response to the population boom and the limited land area of the city, it also created a crisis in terms of social communication and place attachment. District 10 in Tehran is a neighborhood that has undergone the most urban transformation among the other 22 districts in the capital and currently has the highest population density. This paper will explore how the active streets in district 10 have changed into their current condition of high rises with a lack of meaningful social interactions amongst its inhabitants. A residential building can be thought of as a large group of people. One would think that as the number of people increases, the opportunities for social communications would increase as well. However, according to the survey, there is an indirect relationship between the two. As the number of people of a residential building increases, the quality of each acquaintance reduces, and the depth of relationships between people tends to decrease. This comes from the anonymity of being part of a crowd and the lack of social spaces characterized by most high-rise apartment buildings. Without a sense of community, the attachment to a neighborhood is decreased. This paper further explores how the neighborhood participates to fulfill ones need for social interaction and focuses on the qualitative aspects of alternative spaces that can redevelop the sense of place attachment within the community.

Keywords: high density, place attachment, social communication, street life, urban transformation

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Authors: Lindy Van Vliet, Saloni Phadke, Anthea Nelson, Ann Gallant

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Comprehensive and compassionate palliative care and support requires an integrated system of care that draws on formal health and social service providers working together with community and informal networks to ensure that patients and families have access to the care they need. The objective of this study is to further explore and understand the community supports, services, and informal networks that health care professionals and social service providers rely on to allow their patients to die in their homes and communities. Drawing on an interpretivist, exploratory, qualitative design, our multidisciplinary research team (medicine, nursing and social work) conducted interviews with 15 health care and social service providers in the Ottawa region. Interview data was audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using a reflexive thematic analysis approach. The data deepens our understandings of the facilitators and barriers that arise as health care and social service providers attempt to build networks of care for patients with life limiting illnesses and families. Three main findings emerged: First, the variability that arises due to systemic barriers in accessing and providing care; second, the exceptionally challenging workload that providers are facing as they work to address complex social care needs (housing, disability, food security), along with escalating palliative care needs; and, finally, the lack of structural support that providers and informal care networks receive. Conclusion: These findings will facilitate and build stronger person-centred/relationship-centred principles and practices between providers, patients, community, and informal care networks by highlighting the systemic barriers to accessing and providing person-centred care. Further, they will have important implications for future partnerships in integrated care delivery programs and initiatives, community policies, education programs, and provincial and national palliative care strategies.

Keywords: public health palliative care, palliative care nursing, care networks, informal care, integrated health care

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Nuran Öze

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People always want to be aware of what is happening around them. The nature of man constantly triggers the need for gathering information because of curiosity. The media has emerged to save people the need for information. It is known that the media has changed with the technological developments over time, diversified and, people's information needs are provided in different ways. Today, the Internet has become an integral part of everyday life. The invasion of the Internet into everyday life practices at this level affects every aspect of life. These effects cause people to change their life practices. Technological developments have always influenced of people, the way they reach information. Looking at the history of the media, the breaking point about the dissemination of information is seen as the invention of the machine of the printing press. This adventure that started with written media has now become a multi-dimensional structure. Written, audio, visual media has now changed shape with new technologies. Especially emerging of the internet to everyday life, of course, has effects on media field. 'New media' has appeared which contains most of traditional media features in its'. While in the one hand this transformation enables captures a harmony between traditional and new media, on the other hand, new media and traditional media are rivaling each other. The purpose of this study is to examine the problematic relationship between traditional media and new media through the news reading practices of individuals. This study can be evaluated as a kind of media sociology. To reach this aim, two different field researches will be done besides literature review. The research will be conducted in Northern Cyprus. Northern Cyprus Northern Cyprus is located in the Mediterranean Sea. North Cyprus is a country which is not recognized by any country except Turkey. Despite this, takes its share from all technological developments take place in the world. One of the field researches will consist of the questionnaires to be applied on media readers' news reading practices. This survey will be conducted in a social media environment. The second field survey will be conducted in the form of interviews with general editorials or news directors in traditional media. In the second field survey, in-depth interview method will be applied. As a result of these investigations, supporting sides between the new media and the traditional media and directions which contrast with each other will be revealed. In addition to that, it will try to understand the attitudes and perceptions of readers about the traditional media and the new media in this study.

Keywords: new media, news, North Cyprus, traditional media

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Authors: Sheetal Sharma

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Urban planning is associated with land transformation from natural areas to modified and developed ones which leads to modification of natural environment. The basic knowledge of relationship between both should be ascertained before proceeding for the development of natural areas. Changes on land surface due to build up pavements, roads and similar land cover, affect surface water flow. There is a gap between urban planning and basic knowledge of hydrological processes which should be known to the planners. The paper aims to identify these variations in surface flow due to urbanization for a temporal scale of 40 years using Storm Water Management Mode (SWMM) and again correlating these findings with the urban planning guidelines in study area along with geological background to find out the suitable combinations of land cover, soil and guidelines. For the purpose of identifying the changes in surface flows, 19 catchments were identified with different geology and growth in 40 years facing different ground water levels fluctuations. The increasing built up, varying surface runoff are studied using Arc GIS and SWMM modeling, regression analysis for runoff. Resulting runoff for various land covers and soil groups with varying built up conditions were observed. The modeling procedures also included observations for varying precipitation and constant built up in all catchments. All these observations were combined for individual catchment and single regression curve was obtained for runoff. Thus, it was observed that alluvial with suitable land cover was better for infiltration and least generation of runoff but excess built up could not be sustained on alluvial soil. Similarly, basalt had least recharge and most runoff demanding maximum vegetation over it. Sandstone resulted in good recharging if planned with more open spaces and natural soils with intermittent vegetation. Hence, these observations made a keystone base for planners while planning various land uses on different soils. This paper contributes and provides a solution to basic knowledge gap, which urban planners face during development of natural surfaces.

Keywords: runoff, built up, roughness, recharge, temporal changes

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Lourenço, Margarida Mano

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Higher Education Institutions (HEI), and other levels of Education, face important challenges. One of the most relevant one is the ability to adapt to a society that is changing over time, whilst guarantying levels of training that do not merely react to such changes. Thus, interacting with society, particularly with surrounding communities and key stakeholders, has become an essential requirement for the sustainability of these institutions. One of the formal mechanisms implemented in European educational institutions has been the design of organizational structures that include a top governance body sharing its constitution with both internal members, students and external members. Such frame holds the core mission of involving communities in the governance of educational institutions, assuming, both strategic decision-making functions, with the approval of the institutions’ strategic plans, and a supervision function, approved by activity reports. It also plays an essential role in the life of institutions by holding the responsibility of electing its top executives. In Portugal, it has been almost a decade since the publication of RJIES, the legal framework of Higher Education, such bodies being designated by General Councils. Thus, one may highlight that there has been a better understanding of the operative process of these bodies, as well as their added value to the education system. It has also been possible to analyse the extent to which their core mission has been fulfilled and to understand its growing relevance, particularly regarding the autonomy of institutions. This article aims to contribute to this theme by presenting the results of a study on the role of these bodies in the governance of Public Portuguese HEI, with a special focus on the supervisory competence of organizational performance. Through questionnaires made to board members and interviews with chairpersons of the bodies and top managers of the institutions, it was possible to conclude that there is a high concern with the connections to the external environment. However, regarding organizational performance and the role of the Council as a supervisor of that performance, the activity of the bodies has fallen short of what would be expected. Several reasons may be identified. It is important to emphasize the importance of the profile of the external members and the relationship between the organ’s standard functioning and the election of the head of the institution.

Keywords: governance, stakeholders, supervision, performance

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Authors: Liana Melissa E. de la Rosa, Jayson P. Ada

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This exploratory study was conducted to determine the sociology of the Facebook. Specifically, it aimed to know the socio-demographic profile of the respondents in terms of age, sex, year level and monthly allowance; find out the common usage of Facebook to the respondents; identify the features of Facebook that are commonly used by the respondents; understand the benefits and risks of using the Facebook; determine how frequent the respondents use the Facebook; and find out if there is a significant relationship between socio-demographic profile of the respondents and their Facebook usage. This study used the exploratory research design and correlational design employing research survey questionnaire as its main data gathering instrument. Students of the University of Eastern Philippines were selected as the respondents of this study through quota sampling. Ten (10) students were randomly selected from each college of the university. Based on the findings of this study, the following conclusion were drawn: The majority of the respondents are aged 18 and 21 old, female, are third year students, and have monthly allowance of P 2,000 above. On the respondents’ usage of Facebook, the majority of use the Facebook on a daily basis for one to two (1-2) hours everyday. And most users used Facebook by renting a computer in an internet cafe. On the use of Facebook, most users have created their profiles mainly to connect with people and gain new friends. The most commonly used features of Facebook, are: photos application, like button, wall, notification, friend, chat, network, groups and “like” pages status updates, messages and inbox and events. While the other Facebook features that are seldom used by the respondents are games, news feed, user name, video sharing and notes. And the least used Facebook features are questions, poke feature, credits and the market place. The respondents stated that the major benefit that the Facebook has given to its users is its ability to keep in touch with family members or friends while the main risk identified is that the users can become addicted to the Internet. On the tests of relationships between the respondents’ use of Facebook and the four (4) socio-demographic profile variables: age, sex, year level, and month allowance, were found to be not significantly related to the respondents’ use of the Facebook. While the variable found to be significantly related was gender.

Keywords: Facebook, sociology, social networking, exploratory study

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Authors: Fumihiro Ima, Shinichi Watanabe, Shingo Maeda, Haruna Imai, Hiroki Niimi

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It is important to know growth rate of brain tumors before surgery because it influences treatment planning including not only surgical resection strategy but also adjuvant therapy after surgery. Amide proton transfer (APT) imaging is an emerging molecular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique based on chemical exchange saturation transfer without administration of contrast medium. The underlying assumption in APT imaging of tumors is that there is a close relationship between the proliferative activity of the tumor and mobile protein synthesis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of APT imaging of pre-and post-treatment brain tumors. Ten patients with brain tumor underwent conventional and APT-weighted sequences on a 3.0 Tesla MRI before clinical intervention. The maximum and the minimum APT-weighted signals (APTWmax and APTWmin) in each solid tumor region were obtained and compared before and after clinical intervention. All surgical specimens were examined for histopathological diagnosis. Eight of ten patients underwent adjuvant therapy after surgery. Histopathological diagnosis was glioma in 7 patients (WHO grade 2 in 2 patients, WHO grade 3 in 3 patients and WHO grade 4 in 2 patients), meningioma WHO grade1 in 2 patients and primary lymphoma of the brain in 1 patient. High-grade gliomas showed significantly higher APTW-signals than that in low-grade gliomas. APTWmax in one huge parasagittal meningioma infiltrating into the skull bone was higher than that in glioma WHO grade 4. On the other hand, APTWmax in another convexity meningioma was the same as that in glioma WHO grade 3. Diagnosis of primary lymphoma of the brain was possible with APT imaging before pathological confirmation. APTW-signals in residual tumors decreased dramatically within one year after adjuvant therapy in all patients. APT imaging demonstrated excellent diagnostic performance for the planning of surgery and adjuvant therapy of brain tumors.

Keywords: amides, magnetic resonance imaging, brain tumors, cell proliferation

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Authors: Henry Kelly, Helena Shaw

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This paper will seek how innovative methods from Health Economics and, to a lesser extent, wellbeing analysis can be applied in the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of transport infrastructure and policy interventions. The context for this will focus on the framework articulated by the UK Treasury (finance department) and the English Department for Transport. Both have well-established methods for undertaking CBA, but there is increased policy interest, particularly at a regional level of exploring broader strategic goals beyond those traditionally associated with transport user benefits, productivity gains, and labour market access. Links to different CBA approaches internationally, such as New Zealand, France, and Wales will be referenced. By exploring a complementary method of accessing the impacts of policies through the quantification of health impacts is a fruitful line to explore. In a previous piece of work, 14 impact pathways were identified, mapping the relationship between transport and health. These are wide-ranging, from improved employment prospects, the stress of unreliable journey times, and air quality to isolation and loneliness. Importantly, we will consider these different measures of health from an intersectional point of view to ensure that the basis that remains in the health industry does not get translated across to this work. The objective is to explore how a CBA based on these pathways may, through quantifying forecast impacts in terms of Quality-Adjusted Life Years may, produce different findings than a standard approach. Of particular interest is how a health-based approach may have different distributional impacts on socio-economic groups and may favour distinct types of interventions. Consideration will be given to the degree this approach may double-count impacts or if it is possible to identify additional benefits to the established CBA approach. The investigation will explore a range of schemes, from a high-speed rail link, highway improvements, rural mobility hubs, and coach services to cycle lanes. The conclusions should aid the progression of methods concerning the assessment of publicly funded infrastructure projects.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, health, QALYs transport

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Authors: Abdalla Mohamed M. Musbahi

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The study area lies in Al-Falah area on Airport-Tripoli in Zone (16) Where planned establishment of complex multi-floors for residential and commercial, this part was divided into seven subzone. In each sup zone, were collected Orthogonal profiles by using Seismic refraction method. The overall aim with this project is to investigate the applicability of Seismic refraction method is a commonly used traditional geophysical technique to determine depth-to-bedrock, competence of bedrock, depth to the water table, or depth to other seismic velocity boundaries The purpose of the work is to make engineers and decision makers recognize the importance of planning and execution of a pre-investigation program including geophysics and in particular seismic refraction method. The overall aim with this thesis is achieved by evaluation of seismic refraction method in different scales, determine the depth and velocity of the base layer (bed-rock). Calculate the elastic property in each layer in the region by using the Seismic refraction method. The orthogonal profiles was carried out in every subzones of (zone 16). The layout of the seismic refraction set up is schematically, the geophones are placed on the linear imaginary line whit a 5 m spacing, the three shot points (in beginning of layout–mid and end of layout) was used, in order to generate the P and S waves. The 1st and last shot point is placed about 5 meters from the geophones and the middle shot point is put in between 12th to 13th geophone, from time-distance curve the P and S waves was calculated and the thickness was estimated up to three-layers. As we know any change in values of physical properties of medium (shear modulus, bulk modulus, density) leads to change waves velocity which passing through medium where any change in properties of rocks cause change in velocity of waves. because the change in properties of rocks cause change in parameters of medium density (ρ), bulk modulus (κ), shear modulus (μ). Therefore, the velocity of waves which travel in rocks have close relationship with these parameters. Therefore we can estimate theses parameters by knowing primary and secondary velocity (p-wave, s-wave).

Keywords: application of seismic, geotechnical study, physical properties, seismic refraction

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Authors: Flavia Cordeiro, Fabio Silva, Alvaro Eiras, Jose Luiz Acebal

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Aedes aegypti is present in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world and is a vector of several diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya, zika etc. The growth in the number of arboviruses cases in the last decades became a matter of great concern worldwide. Meteorological factors like mean temperature and precipitation are known to influence the infestation by the species through effects on physiology and ecology, altering the fecundity, mortality, lifespan, dispersion behaviour and abundance of the vector. Models able to describe the dynamics of the vector population size should then take into account the meteorological variables. The relationship between meteorological factors and the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti adult females are studied to provide a good set of predictors to model the dynamics of the mosquito population size. The time-series data of capture of adult females of a public health surveillance program from the city of Lavras, MG, Brazil had its association with precipitation, humidity and temperature analysed through a set of statistical methods for time series analysis commonly adopted in Signal Processing, Information Theory and Neuroscience. Cross-correlation, multicollinearity test and whitened cross-correlation were applied to determine in which time lags would occur the influence of meteorological variables on the dynamics of the mosquito abundance. Among the findings, the studied case indicated strong collinearity between humidity and precipitation, and precipitation was selected to form a pair of descriptors together with temperature. In the techniques used, there were observed significant associations between infestation indicators and both temperature and precipitation in short, mid and long terms, evincing that those variables should be considered in entomological models and as public health indicators. A descriptive model used to test the results exhibits a strong correlation to data.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, cross-correlation, multicollinearity, meteorological variables

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

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Authors: Yu Liang

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The study of heritage in different contexts has been discussed during the past decades, which the relationship with other fields such as tourism, museum, and urban regeneration has also been interested in scholars. Governmental and policy attention were also fascinated by the use of heritage, which it is a ‘heritagisation’ process, to achieve certain goals because the advantage will appear in both economic development and social inclusion with suitable planning. In the case of Belfast, this city has been through tough ages due to its complicated ideology issues in the past; however, it is obvious to see the transformation through representing their Belfast heritages in tourism. Planners are willing to use this method to attract cultural tourists, investors and also residents to reborn and retrieve their confidence. One of the target topics is the establishment of Titanic Belfast that explores the culture of Titanic and the history of the shipbuilding industry in Belfast. Even though the cultural flagship brought economic and social benefit, not all of the people agreed on the vision of relaunching a sunken ship and felt proud of it. The aim of this research is to clarify the concept of a ‘heritagisation’ that it could achieve certain goals in consolidating areas, increasing local self-identity pride, and promoting tourism activities if well-planned. Moreover, to discuss the preference and the pros and cons of its practice with the Titanic culture in Belfast’s regeneration process, especially the Titanic Belfast flagship project. From the methodological point of view, a mixed incorporating qualitative point of interviews, observation, and secondary sources with different perspectives and approaches are adopted in this case study. The expected result would show that a great majority of outsiders and the planners were pleasured about the concept of Titanic Belfast’s establishment and agreed its attraction traveling to Belfast. Nevertheless, there were still an amount of locals disagree that the Titanic culture and the flagship would be representative of this city and would bring other advantages to them. In other words, some residents doubt or less likely to support the issue since they have been ignored out of the planning process. Hence, opinions are divided among 38 residents, various outsiders, and stakeholders, and their perspectives have drawn an interesting task for sustainable research in the future.

Keywords: Belfast, heritagisation, Titanic, Titanic Belfast, urban regeneration

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Authors: Gubair Tarabeh, Ghadir Zriek, David Oppenheim, Avi Sagi-Schwartz, Nina Koren-Karie

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Introduction: Mind-Mindedness (MM) focuses on mothers' attunement to their infant's mental states as reflected in their speech to the infant. Appropriate MM comments are associated with attachment security in individualistic Western societies where parents value their children’s autonomy and independence, and may therefore be more likely to engage in mind-related discourse with their children that highlights individual thoughts, preferences, emotions, and motivations. Such discourse may begin in early infancy, even before infants are likely to understand the semantic meaning of parental speech. Parents in collectivistic societies, by contrast, are thought to emphasize conforming to social norms more than individual goals, and this may lead to parent-child discourse that emphasizes appropriate behavior and compliance with social norms rather than internal mental states of the self and the other. Therefore, the examination of maternal MM and its relationship with attachment in Arab collectivistic culture in Israel was of particular interest. Aims of the study: The goal of the study was to examine whether the associations between MM and attachment in the Arab culture in Israel are the same as in Western samples. An additional goal was to examine whether appropriate and non-attuned MM comments could, together, distinguish among mothers of children in the different attachment classifications. Material and Methods: 76 Arab mothers and their infants between the ages of 12 and 18 months were observed in the Strange Situation Procedure (49 secure (B), 11 ambivalent (C), 14 disorganized (D), and 2 avoidant (A) infants). MM was coded from an 8-minute free-play sequence. Results: Mothers of B infants used more appropriate and less non-attuned MM comments than mothers of D infants, with no significant differences with mothers of C infants. Also, mothers of B infants used less non-attuned MM comments than both mothers of D infants and mothers of C infants. In addition, Mothers of B infants were most likely to show the combination of high appropriate and low non-attuned MM comments; Mothers of D infants were most likely to show the combination of high non-attuned and low appropriate MM comments; and a non-significant trend indicated that mothers of C infants were most likely to show a combination of high appropriate and high non-attuned MM comments. Conclusion: Maternal MM was associated with attachment in the Arab culture in Israel with combinations of appropriate and non-attuned MM comments distinguishing between different attachment classifications.

Keywords: attachment, maternal mind-mindedness, Arab culture, collectivistic culture

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Authors: Sanjeev Prasher, T. Sai Vijay, Chandan Parsad, Abhishek Banerjee, Sahakari Nikhil Krishna, Subham Chatterjee

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With rapid rise in internet retailing, the industry is set for a major implosion. Due to the little difference among competitors, companies find it difficult to segment and target the right shoppers. The objective of the study is to segment Indian online shoppers on the basis of the factors – website characteristics and shopping values. Together, these cover extrinsic and intrinsic factors that affect shoppers as they visit web retailers. Data were collected using questionnaire from 319 Indian online shoppers, and factor analysis was used to confirm the factors influencing the shoppers in their selection of web portals. Thereafter, cluster analysis was applied, and different segments of shoppers were identified. The relationship between income groups and online shoppers’ segments was tracked using correspondence analysis. Significant findings from the study include that web entertainment and informativeness together contribute more than fifty percent of the total influence on the web shoppers. Contrary to general perception that shoppers seek utilitarian leverages, the present study highlights the preference for fun, excitement, and entertainment during browsing of the website. Four segments namely Information Seekers, Utility Seekers, Value Seekers and Core Shoppers were identified and profiled. Value seekers emerged to be the most dominant segment with two-fifth of the respondents falling for hedonic as well as utilitarian shopping values. With overlap among the segments, utilitarian shopping value garnered prominence with more than fifty-eight percent of the total respondents. Moreover, a strong relation has been established between the income levels and the segments of Indian online shoppers. Web shoppers show different motives from being utility seekers to information seekers, core shoppers and finally value seekers as income levels increase. Companies can strategically use this information for target marketing and align their web portals accordingly. This study can further be used to develop models revolving around satisfaction, trust and customer loyalty.

Keywords: online shopping, shopping values, effectiveness of information content, web informativeness, web entertainment, information seekers, utility seekers, value seekers, core shoppers

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Authors: Yasser Mohamed Abdelrahman Tarshany

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The emergence of the digital economy has transformed global business and created new opportunities for growth and development. However, as digital technologies continue to reshape the global economy, there is a growing need to ensure that these transformations are guided by ethical principles that serve the common good. In this context, Maqasid, the Islamic ethical framework that focuses on the higher objectives and values of Shariah, offers a valuable lens for examining the ethical implications of digital transformation. The research objective of this study is to explore the opportunities and challenges of integrating Maqasid into the global digital economy from a business and management perspective. Specifically, the study aims to analyze the ethical implications of digital technologies for the economy and to identify strategies for leveraging Maqasid to promote ethical and socially responsible practices in the digital age. The study adopts a qualitative research methodology, drawing on existing literature and empirical data to develop a conceptual framework for understanding the relationship between Maqasid and the global digital economy. The study also employs case studies and interviews with business leaders and policymakers to explore practical strategies for integrating Maqasid into digital business practices. The research findings reveal that Maqasid can serve as a powerful framework for promoting ethical and socially responsible practices in the digital economy. Specifically, the study identifies several key strategies for leveraging Maqasid in digital business practices, including promoting social justice, protecting privacy and personal data, and ensuring transparency and accountability in business operations. The research outcomes of this study provide a valuable contribution to the field of business and management by demonstrating the importance of integrating ethical principles into the digital economy. Furthermore, the study highlights the potential of Maqasid as a powerful framework for promoting ethical and socially responsible practices in the digital age. Finally, the study suggests several avenues for future research, including exploring the role of Maqasid in promoting digital inclusion and reducing inequality in the global economy.

Keywords: Maqasid, global digital, economy, opportunities, challenges for business, management

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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