Search results for: regression modeling of extremes

Authors: Issam Aouari, Abdelmalek Abdelhamid

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For seismologists, the characterization of seismic demand should include the amplitude and duration of strong shaking in the system. The duration of ground shaking is one of the key parameters in earthquake resistant design of structures. This paper proposes a nonlinear statistical model to estimate earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils using multiple seismicity indicators. Three definitions of ground motion duration proposed by literature have been applied. With a comparative study, we select the most significant definition to use for predict the duration. A stochastic model is presented for the McCann and Shah Method using nonlinear regression analysis based on a data set for moment magnitude, source to site distance and site conditions. The data set applied is taken from PEER strong motion databank and contains shallow earthquakes from different regions in the world; America, Turkey, London, China, Italy, Chili, Mexico...etc. Main emphasis is placed on soft site condition. The predictive relationship has been developed based on 600 records and three input indicators. Results have been compared with others published models. It has been found that the proposed model can predict earthquake ground motion duration in soft soils for different regions and sites conditions.

Keywords: duration, earthquake, prediction, regression, soft soil

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Authors: Farzingohar Mehrnaz, Yasemi Mehran, Esmaili Zinat, Baharlouian Maedeh

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Aboozar (Ardeshir) and Bahregansar are the two important Iranian oilfields in Persian Gulf waters. The operation activities cause to create spills which impacted on the marine environment. Assumed spills are molded by ADIOS II (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills) which is NOAA’s weathering oil software. Various atmospheric and marine data with different oil types are used for the modeling. Numerous scenarios for 100 bbls with mean daily air temperature and wind speed are input for 5 days. To find the model sensitivity in each setting, one parameter is changed, but the others stayed constant. In both fields, the evaporated and dispersed output values increased hence the remaining rate is reduced. The results clarified that wind speed first, second air temperature and finally oil type respectively were the most effective factors on the oil weathering process. The obtained results can help the emergency systems to predict the floating (dispersed and remained) volume spill in order to find the suitable cleanup tools and methods.

Keywords: ADIOS, modeling, oil spill, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Yan Lyu, Yiqun Pan, Zhizhong Huang

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In the design stage of a new building, the energy model of this building is often required for the analysis of the performance on energy efficiency. In practice, a certain degree of geometric simplification should be done in the establishment of building energy models, since the detailed geometric features of a real building are hard to be described perfectly in most energy simulation engine, such as ESP-r, eQuest or EnergyPlus. Actually, the detailed description is not necessary when the result with extremely high accuracy is not demanded. Therefore, this paper analyzed the relationship between the error of the simulation result from building energy models and the geometric simplification of the models. Finally, the following two parameters are selected as the indices to characterize the geometric feature of in building energy simulation: the southward projected area and total side surface area of the building, Based on the parameterization method, the simplification from an arbitrary column building to a typical shape (a cuboid) building can be made for energy modeling. The result in this study indicates that this simplification would only lead to the error that is less than 7% for those buildings with the ratio of southward projection length to total perimeter of the bottom of 0.25~0.35, which can cover most situations.

Keywords: building energy model, simulation, geometric simplification, design, regression

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Authors: Sushma Ghogale

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With a surge in user-generated content or feedback or reviews on the internet, it has become possible and important to know consumers' opinions about products and services. This data is important for both potential customers and businesses providing the services. Data from social media is attracting significant attention and has become the most prominent channel of expressing an unregulated opinion. Prospective customers look for reviews from experienced customers before deciding to buy a product or service. Several websites provide a platform for users to post their feedback for the provider and potential customers. However, the biggest challenge in analyzing such data is in extracting latent features and providing term-level analysis of the data. This paper proposes an approach to use topic modeling to classify the reviews into topics and conduct sentiment analysis to mine the opinions. This approach can analyse and classify latent topics mentioned by reviewers on business sites or review sites, or social media using topic modeling to identify the importance of each topic. It is followed by sentiment analysis to assess the satisfaction level of each topic. This approach provides a classification of hotel reviews using multiple machine learning techniques and comparing different classifiers to mine the opinions of user reviews through sentiment analysis. This experiment concludes that Multinomial Naïve Bayes classifier produces higher accuracy than other classifiers.

Keywords: latent Dirichlet allocation, topic modeling, text classification, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Semra Turkan

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In this paper, we have examined the factors that affect the productivity of Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises in 2014. The labor productivity of enterprises is taken as an indicator of productivity of industrial enterprises. When the relationships between some financial ratios and labor productivity, it is seen that there is a nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales. In addition, the distribution of labor productivity of enterprises is right-skewed. If the dependent distribution is skewed, the quantile regression is more suitable for this data. Hence, the nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales by quantile smoothing splines.

Keywords: quantile regression, smoothing spline, labor productivity, financial ratios

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Authors: Adil A. Mohammed, Seif-Eddeen K. Fateen, Tamer S. Ahmed, Tarek M. Moustafa

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Falling film were widely used for gas-liquid absorption and reaction process. Modeling of falling film for oligomerization of ethylene reaction to linear alpha olefins is developed. Although there are many researchers discuss modeling of falling film in many processes, there has been no publish study the simulation of falling film for the oligomerization of ethylene reaction to produce linear alpha olefins. The Comsol multiphysics software was used to simulate the mass transfer with chemical reaction in falling film absorption process. The effect of concentration profile absorption of the products through falling thickness is discussed. The effect of catalyst concentration, catalyst/co-catalyst ratio, and temperature is also studied. For the effect of the temperature, as it increase the concentration of C4 increase. For catalyst concentration and catalyst/co-catalyst ratio as they increases the concentration of C4 increases, till it reached almost constant value.

Keywords: falling film, oligomerization, comsol mutiphysics, linear alpha olefins

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Authors: Nermin Mahmoud Gohar, Aisha Tarek Noour

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Learner satisfaction has been a vital field of interest in the literature. Accordingly, the paper will explore the reasons behind individual differences in motivation and satisfaction. This study examines the effect of both; Herzberg’s and Maslow’s theories on learners satisfaction. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from learners who were geographically widely spread around the College of Maritime Transport and Technology (CMTT) at the Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AAST&MT) in Egypt. One hundred and fifty undergraduates responded to a questionnaire survey. Respondents were drawn from two branches in Alexandria and Port Said. The data analysis used was SPSS 22 and AMOS 18. Factor analysis technique was used to find out the dimensions under study verified by Herzberg’s and Maslow’s theories. In addition, regression analysis and structural equation modeling were applied to find the effect of the above-mentioned theories on maritime transport learners’ satisfaction. Concerning the limitation of this study, it used the available number of learners in the CMTT due to the relatively low population in this field.

Keywords: motivation, satisfaction, needs, education, Herzberg’s and Maslow’s theories

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Authors: Mohieddine Benghersallah, Mohamed Zakaria Zahaf, Ali Medjber, Idriss Tibakh

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The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of cutting parameters on surface roughness in dry face milling using statistical techniques. We studied the effect of the microstructure of AISI 52100 steel on machinability before and after hardening. The machining tests were carried out on a high rigidity vertical milling machine with a 25 mm diameter face milling cutter equipped with micro-grain bicarbide inserts with PVD (Ti, AlN) coating in GC1030 grade. A Taguchi L9 experiment plan is adopted. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the effects of cutting parameters (Vc, fz, ap) on the roughness (Ra) of the machined surface. Regression analysis to assess the machinability of steel presented mathematical models of roughness and the combination of parameters to minimize it. The recorded results show that feed per tooth has the most significant effect on the surface condition for both steel treatment conditions. The best roughnesses were obtained for the hardened AISI 52100 steel.

Keywords: machinability, heat treatment, microstructure, surface roughness, Taguchi method

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

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In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

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Authors: Biruk Wolde, Atalay Ayele, Yonatan Garkabo, Trufat Hailmariam, Zemenu Germewu

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A comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) geological modeling and engineering geological characterization of shallow subsurface soils and rocks are essential for a wide range of geotechnical and seismological engineering applications, particularly in urban environments. The spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface of Addis Ababa city have not been studied so far in terms of geological and geotechnical modeling. This study aims at the construction of a 3D geological model, as well as provides awareness into the engineering geological characteristics of shallow subsurface soil and rock of Addis Ababa city. The 3D geological model was constructed by using more than 1500 geotechnical boreholes, well-drilling data, and geological maps. A well-known geostatistical kriging 3D interpolation algorithm was applied to visualize the spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface. Due to the complex nature of geological formations, vertical and lateral variation of the geological profiles horizons-solid command has been selected via the Groundwater Modelling System (GMS) graphical user interface software. For the engineering geological characterization of typical soils and rocks, both index and engineering laboratory tests have been used. The geotechnical properties of soil and rocks vary from place to place due to the uneven nature of subsurface formations observed in the study areas. The constructed model ascertains the thickness, extent, and 3D distribution of the important geological units of the city. This study is the first comprehensive research work on 3D geological modeling and subsurface characterization of soils and rocks in Addis Ababa city, and the outcomes will be important for further future research on subsurface conditions in the city. Furthermore, these findings provide a reference for developing a geo-database for the city.

Keywords: 3d geological modeling, addis ababa, engineering geology, geostatistics, horizons-solid

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Authors: Erin Lynne Plettenberg, Jeremy Vickery

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In an access-control situation, the role of a user determines whether a data request is appropriate. This paper combines vetted web mining and logic modeling to build a lightweight system for determining the role of a health care provider based only on their prior authorized requests. The model identifies provider roles with 100% recall from very little data. This shows the value of vetted web mining in AI systems, and suggests the impact of the ICD classification on medical practice.

Keywords: electronic medical records, information extraction, logic modeling, ontology, vetted web mining

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Authors: Neeta Kumari, Gopal Pathak

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Artificial neural network has been proved to be an efficient tool for non-parametric modeling of data in various applications where output is non-linearly associated with input. It is a preferred tool for many predictive data mining applications because of its power , flexibility, and ease of use. A standard feed forward networks (FFN) is used to predict the groundwater fluoride content. The ANN model is trained using back propagated algorithm, Tansig and Logsig activation function having varying number of neurons. The models are evaluated on the basis of statistical performance criteria like Root Mean Squarred Error (RMSE) and Regression coefficient (R2), bias (mean error), Coefficient of variation (CV), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the index of agreement (IOA). The results of the study indicate that Artificial neural network (ANN) can be used for groundwater fluoride prediction in the limited data situation in the hard rock region like western parts of Jharkhand with sufficiently good accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), FFN (Feed-forward network), backpropagation algorithm, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, groundwater fluoride contamination

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Authors: Md Yeasin, Ranjit Kumar Paul

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In recent years, recommendation systems have become indispensable tools for agricultural system. The accurate and timely recommendations can significantly impact crop yield and overall productivity. Causal inference modeling aims to establish cause-and-effect relationships by identifying the impact of variables or factors on outcomes, enabling more accurate and reliable recommendations. New advancements in causal inference models have been found in the literature. With the advent of the modern era, deep learning and machine learning models have emerged as efficient tools for modeling. This study proposed an innovative approach to enhance recommendation systems-based machine learning based casual inference model. By considering the causal effect and opportunity cost of covariates, the proposed system can provide more reliable and actionable recommendations for cereal farmers. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, experiments are conducted using cereal cultivation data of eastern India. Comparative evaluations are performed against existing correlation-based recommendation systems, demonstrating the superiority of the advanced causal inference modeling approach in terms of recommendation accuracy and impact on crop yield. Overall, it empowers farmers with personalized recommendations tailored to their specific circumstances, leading to optimized decision-making and increased crop productivity.

Keywords: agriculture, casual inference, machine learning, recommendation system

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Authors: Hillary Mwongyera

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The Semliki basin has become a frontier for petroleum exploration in recent years. Exploration efforts have resulted into extensive seismic data acquisition and drilling of three wells namely; Turaco 1, Turaco 2 and Turaco 3. A petrophysical analysis of the Turaco 1 well was carried out to identify two reservoir zones on which AVO modeling was performed. A combination of seismic modeling and rock physics modeling was applied during reservoir characterization and monitoring to determine variations of seismic responses with amplitude characteristics. AVO intercept gradient analysis applied on AVO synthetic CDP gathers classified AVO anomalies associated with both reservoir zones as Class 1 AVO anomalies. Fluid replacement modeling was carried out on both reservoir zones using homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation patterns to determine effects of fluid substitution on rock property interactions. For both homogeneous mixing and saturation patterns, density (ρ) showed an increasing trend with increasing brine substitution while Shear wave velocity (Vs) decreased with increasing brine substitution. A study of compressional wave velocity (Vp) with increasing brine substitution for both homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation gave quite interesting results. During patchy saturation, Vp increased with increasing brine substitution. During homogeneous mixing however, Vp showed a slightly decreasing trend with increasing brine substitution but increased tremendously towards and at full brine saturation. A sensitivity analysis carried out showed that density was a very sensitive rock property responding to brine saturation except at full brine saturation during homogeneous mixing where Vp showed greater sensitivity with brine saturation. Rock physics modeling was performed to predict diagnostics of reservoir quality using an inverse deterministic approach which showed low shale content and a high degree of shale stiffness within reservoir zones.

Keywords: Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO), fluid replacement modelling, reservoir characterization, AVO attributes, rock physics modelling, reservoir monitoring

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Authors: Brahim Dennai, Abdelhak Bentaleb, Rachid Khelfaoui, Asma Abdenbi

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The diffusion flux given by the Fick’s law characterizethe mixing rate. A passive mixing strategy is proposed to enhance mixing of two fluids through perturbed jet low. A numerical study of passive mixers has been presented. This paper is focused on the modeling of a micro-injection systems composed of passive amplifier without mechanical part. The micro-system modeling is based on geometrical oscillators form. An asymmetric micro-oscillator design based on a monostable fluidic amplifier is proposed. The characteristic size of the channels is generally about a few hundred of microns. The numerical results indicate that the mixing performance can be as high as 99 % within a typical mixing chamber of 0.20 mm diameter inlet and 2.0 mm distance of nozzle - spliter. In addition, the results confirm that self-rotation in the circular mixer significantly enhances the mixing performance. The novel micro mixing method presented in this study provides a simple solution to mixing problems in microsystem for application in chemistry.

Keywords: micro oscillator, modeling, micro mixture, diffusion, size effect, chemical equation

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Authors: C. M. Mat Isa, H. Mohd Saman, S. R. Mohd Nasir, A. Jaapar

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International market expansion involves a strategic process of market entry decision through which a firm expands its operation from domestic to the international domain. Hence, entry timing choices require the needs to balance the early entry risks and the problems in losing opportunities as a result of late entry into a new market. Questionnaire surveys administered to 115 Malaysian construction firms operating in 51 countries worldwide have resulted in 39.1 percent response rate. Factor analysis was used to determine the most significant factors affecting entry timing choices of the firms to penetrate the international market. A logistic regression analysis used to examine the firms’ entry timing choices, indicates that the model has correctly classified 89.5 per cent of cases as late movers. The findings reveal that the most significant factor influencing the construction firms’ choices as late movers was the firm factor related to the firm’s international experience, resources, competencies and financing capacity. The study also offers valuable information to construction firms with intention to internationalize their businesses.

Keywords: factors, early movers, entry timing choices, late movers, logistic regression model, principal axis factorial analysis, Malaysian construction firms

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Authors: Ashwani Kumar

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Abstract- This study presents an analytical modeling approach for analyzing the drain current behavior in Tunnel Field-Effect Transistor (TFET) biosensors used for the detection of DNA biomolecules. The proposed model focuses on elucidating the relationship between the drain current and the presence of DNA biomolecules, taking into account the impact of various device parameters and biomolecule characteristics. Through comprehensive analysis, the model offers insights into the underlying mechanisms governing the sensing performance of TFET biosensors, aiding in the optimization of device design and operation. A non-local tunneling model is incorporated with other essential models to accurately trace the simulation and modeled data. An experimental validation of the model is provided, demonstrating its efficacy in accurately predicting the drain current response to DNA biomolecule detection. The sensitivity attained from the analytical model is compared and contrasted with the ongoing research work in this area.

Keywords: biosensor, double-gate TFET, DNA detection, drain current modeling, sensitivity

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Authors: Maurice Bilioniere, Katie Lanneau

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Suddenly appeared in 2011, invasions of sargasso seaweeds Fluitans and Natans are a climatic hazard which causes many problems in the Caribbean. Faced with the growth and frequency of the phenomenon of massive sargasso stranding on their coasts, the French West Indies are moving towards the path of industrial recovery. In this context of innovative projects, we will analyze the necessary requirements for the management and performance of the supply chain, taking into account the observed volatility of the sargasso input. Our prospective approach will consist in studying the theoretical framework of modeling a hybrid supply chain by coupling the discreet event simulation (DES) with a valuation of the process costs according to the "activity-based costing" method (ABC). The PREVA approach (PRocess EVAluation) chosen for our modeling has the advantage of evaluating the financial flows of the logistic process using an analytical model chained with an action model for the evaluation or optimization of physical flows.

Keywords: sargasso, PREVA modeling, supply chain, ABC method, discreet event simulation (DES)

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Authors: Marianna Maiaru, Gregory M. Odegard, Josh Kemppainen, Ivan Gallegos, Michael Olaya

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Ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are typically used in applications that require long-term mechanical integrity at elevated temperatures. CMCs are usually fabricated using a polymer precursor that is initially polymerized in situ with fiber reinforcement, followed by a series of cycles of pyrolysis to transform the polymer matrix into a rigid glass or ceramic. The pyrolysis step typically generates volatile gasses, which creates porosity within the polymer matrix phase of the composite. Subsequent cycles of monomer infusion, polymerization, and pyrolysis are often used to reduce the porosity and thus increase the durability of the composite. Because of the significant expense of such iterative processing cycles, new generations of CMCs with improved durability and manufacturability are difficult and expensive to develop using standard Edisonian approaches. The goal of this research is to develop a computational process-modeling-based approach that can be used to design the next generation of CMC materials with optimized material and processing parameters for maximum strength and efficient manufacturing. The process modeling incorporates computational modeling tools, including molecular dynamics (MD), to simulate the material at multiple length scales. Results from MD simulation are used to inform the continuum-level models to link molecular-level characteristics (material structure, temperature) to bulk-level performance (strength, residual stresses). Processing parameters are optimized such that process-induced residual stresses are minimized and laminate strength is maximized. The multiscale process modeling method developed with this research can play a key role in the development of future CMCs for high-temperature and high-strength applications. By combining multiscale computational tools and process modeling, new manufacturing parameters can be established for optimal fabrication and performance of CMCs for a wide range of applications.

Keywords: digital engineering, finite elements, manufacturing, molecular dynamics

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Authors: Zellagui Redouane, Bellaouar Ahmed, Lachi Mohammed

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The railway axles are the essential parts in the bogie of train, and its failure creates a big problem in the railway transport; during the work of this parts we noticed a premature deterioration. The aim has been presented a predictive model allowing the identification of the probable causes that are the cause of these premature deterioration. The results are employed for predicting fatigue crack growth in the railway axle, Also we want to present the variation value of stress intensity factor in different positions of elliptical crack tip. The modeling of axle in performed by the SOLID WORKS software and imported into ANSYS.

Keywords: crack growth, static load, railway axle, lifetime

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Authors: Ravindra Dastikop, G. S. Thyagaraju, U. P. Kulkarni

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Even though the number of context aware applications is increasing day by day along with the users, till today there is no generic programming paradigm for context aware applications. This situation could be remedied by design and developing the appropriate context modeling and programming paradigm for context aware applications. In this paper, we are proposing the static context model and metrics for validating the expressiveness and understandability of the model. The proposed context modeling is a way of describing a situation of user using context entities , attributes and relationships .The model which is an extended and hybrid version of ER model, ontology model and Graphical model is specifically meant for expressing and understanding the user situation in context aware environment. The model is useful for understanding context aware problems, preparing documentation and designing programs and databases. The model makes use of context entity attributes relationship (CEAR) diagram for representation of association between the context entities and attributes. We have identified a new set of graphical notations for improving the expressiveness and understandability of context from the end user perspective .

Keywords: user context, context entity, context entity attributes, situation, sensors, devices, relationships, actors, expressiveness, understandability

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Neslihan Sahin Celik, Ali Eraslan

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Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. In line with the results of the PISA studies, researchers in many countries have begun to question how much students in school-education system are prepared to solve the real-world problems they encounter in their future professional lives. As a result, many mathematics educators have begun to emphasize the importance of new skills and understanding such as constructing, Hypothesizing, Describing, manipulating, predicting, working together for complex and multifaceted problems for success in beyond the school. When students increasingly face this kind of situations in their daily life, it is important to make sure that students have enough experience to work together and interpret mathematical situations that enable them to think in different ways and share their ideas with their peers. Thus, model eliciting activities are one of main tools that help students to gain experiences and the new skills required. This research study was carried on the town center of a big city located in the Black Sea region in Turkey. The participants were eighth-grade students in a middle school. After a six-week preliminary study, three students in an eighth-grade classroom were selected using criterion sampling technique and placed in a focus group. The focus group of three students was videotaped as they worked on a model eliciting activity, the Summer Job Problem. The conversation of the group was transcribed, examined with students’ written work and then qualitatively analyzed through the lens of Blum’s (1996) modeling processing cycle. The study results showed that eighth grade students can successfully work with the model eliciting, develop a model based on the two parameters and review the whole process. On the other hand, they had difficulties to relate parameters to each other and take all parameters into account to establish the model.

Keywords: middle school, modeling, mathematical modeling, summer job problem

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Authors: Farooq A. Al-Sheikh, Ali Elkamel, William A. Anderson

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A fluidized catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) is one of the effective units in many refineries. Modeling and optimization of FCCU were done by many researchers in past decades, but in this research, comparison between post- and oxy-combustion was studied in the regenerator-FCCU. Therefore, a simplified mathematical model was derived by doing mass/heat balances around both reactor and regenerator. A state space analysis was employed to show effects of the flow rates variables such as air, feed, spent catalyst, regenerated catalyst and flue gas on the output variables. The main aim of studying dynamic responses is to figure out the most influencing variables that affect both reactor/regenerator temperatures; also, finding the upper/lower limits of the influencing variables to ensure that temperatures of the reactors and regenerator work within normal operating conditions. Therefore, those values will be used as side constraints in the optimization technique to find appropriate operating regimes. The objective functions were modeled to be maximizing the energy in the reactor while minimizing the energy consumption in the regenerator. In conclusion, an oxy-combustion process can be used instead of a post-combustion one.

Keywords: FCCU modeling, optimization, oxy-combustion, post-combustion

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Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

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This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, "first-glance" correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve

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Authors: Uroš Durlević, Ivan Novković, Nina Čegar, Stefanija Stojković

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Snow avalanches represent one of the most dangerous natural phenomena in mountain regions worldwide. Material and human casualties caused by snow avalanches can be very significant. In this study, using geographic information systems and remote sensing, the natural conditions of the Šar Mountains were analyzed for geospatial modeling of dry slab avalanches. For this purpose, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) multi-criteria analysis method was used, within which fifteen environmental criteria were analyzed and evaluated. Based on the existing analyzes and results, it was determined that a significant area of the Šar Mountains is very highly susceptible to the occurrence of dry slab avalanches. The obtained data can be of significant use to local governments, emergency services, and other institutions that deal with natural disasters at the local level. To our best knowledge, this is one of the first research in the Republic of Serbia that uses the FAHP method for geospatial modeling of dry slab avalanches.

Keywords: GIS, FAHP, Šar Mountains, snow avalanches, environmental protection

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Authors: Osman Zorbaz, Selen Demirtas-Zorbaz, Ozlem Ulas

Abstract:

The factors that cause adolescents to drop out school were several. One of the frameworks about school dropout focuses on the contextual factors around the adolescents whereas the other one focuses on individual factors. It can be said that both factors are important equally. In this study, both adolescent’s individual factors (anti-social behaviors, academic success) and contextual factors (parent academic involvement, parent academic support, number of siblings, living with parent) were examined in the term of school dropout. The study sample consisted of 346 high school students in the public schools in Ankara who continued their education in 2015-2016 academic year. One hundred eighty-five the students (53.5%) were girls and 161 (46.5%) were boys. In addition to this 118 of them were in ninth grade, 122 of them in tenth grade and 106 of them were in eleventh grade. Multiple regression and one-way ANOVA statistical methods were used. First, it was examined if the data meet the assumptions and conditions that are required for regression analysis. After controlling the assumptions, regression analysis was conducted. Parent academic involvement, parent academic support, number of siblings, anti-social behaviors, academic success variables were taken into the regression model and it was seen that parent academic involvement (t=-3.023, p < .01), anti-social behaviors (t=7.038, p < .001), and academic success (t=-3.718, p < .001) predicted school dropout whereas parent academic support (t=-1.403, p > .05) and number of siblings (t=-1.908, p > .05) didn’t. The model explained 30% of the variance (R=.557, R2=.300, F5,345=30.626, p < .001). In addition to this the variance, results showed there was no significant difference on high school students school dropout levels according to living with parents or not (F2;345=1.183, p > .05). Results discussed in the light of the literature and suggestion were made. As a result, academic involvement, academic success and anti-social behaviors will be considered as an important factors for preventing school drop-out.

Keywords: adolescents, anti-social behavior, parent academic involvement, parent academic support, school dropout

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Authors: Anne M. Denton, Rahul Gomes, David W. Franzen

Abstract:

High-resolution elevation data are becoming increasingly available, but typical approaches for computing topographic features, like slope and curvature, still assume small sliding windows, for example, of size 3x3. That means that the digital elevation model (DEM) has to be resampled to the scale of the landform features that are of interest. Any higher resolution is lost in this resampling. When the topographic features are computed through regression that is performed at the resolution of the original data, the accuracy can be much higher, and the reported result can be adjusted to the length scale that is relevant locally. Slope and variance are calculated for overlapping windows, meaning that one regression result is computed per raster point. The number of window centers per area is the same for the output as for the original DEM. Slope and variance are computed by performing regression on the points in the surrounding window. Such an approach is computationally feasible because of the additive nature of regression parameters and variance. Any doubling of window size in each direction only takes a single pass over the data, corresponding to a logarithmic scaling of the resulting algorithm as a function of the window size. Slope and variance are stored for each aggregation step, allowing the reported slope to be selected to minimize variance. The approach thereby adjusts the effective window size to the landform features that are characteristic to the area within the DEM. Starting with a window size of 2x2, each iteration aggregates 2x2 non-overlapping windows from the previous iteration. Regression results are stored for each iteration, and the slope at minimal variance is reported in the final result. As such, the reported slope is adjusted to the length scale that is characteristic of the landform locally. The length scale itself and the variance at that length scale are also visualized to aid in interpreting the results for slope. The relevant length scale is taken to be half of the window size of the window over which the minimum variance was achieved. The resulting process was evaluated for 1-meter DEM data and for artificial data that was constructed to have defined length scales and added noise. A comparison with ESRI ArcMap was performed and showed the potential of the proposed algorithm. The resolution of the resulting output is much higher and the slope and aspect much less affected by noise. Additionally, the algorithm adjusts to the scale of interest within the region of the image. These benefits are gained without additional computational cost in comparison with resampling the DEM and computing the slope over 3x3 images in ESRI ArcMap for each resolution. In summary, the proposed approach extracts slope and aspect of DEMs at the lengths scales that are characteristic locally. The result is of higher resolution and less affected by noise than existing techniques.

Keywords: high resolution digital elevation models, multi-scale analysis, slope calculation, window-based regression

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Authors: Sagar Shiwakoti, Narendra Man Shakya

Abstract:

The lumped conceptual hydrological model HBV is applied to the Karnali River Basin to estimate runoff at several gauging stations and to analyze the changes in catchment hydrology and future flood magnitude due to climate change. The performance of the model is analyzed to assess its suitability to simulate streamflow in snow fed mountainous catchments. Due to the structural complexity, the model shows difficulties in modeling low and high flows accurately at the same time. It is observed that the low flows were generally underestimated and the peaks were correctly estimated except for some sharp peaks due to isolated precipitation events. In this study, attempt has been made to evaluate the importance of snow melt discharge in the runoff regime of the basin. Quantification of contribution of snowmelt to annual, summer and winter runoff has been done. The contribution is highest at the beginning of the hot months as the accumulated snow begins to melt. Examination of this contribution under conditions of increased temperatures indicate that global warming leading to increase in average basin temperature will significantly lead to higher contributions to runoff from snowmelt. Forcing the model with the output of HadCM3 GCM and the A1B scenario downscaled to the station level show significant changes to catchment hydrology in the 2040s. It is observed that the increase in runoff is most extreme in June - July. A shift in the hydrological regime is also observed.

Keywords: hydrological modeling, HBV light, rainfall runoff modeling, snow melt, climate change

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Authors: Smriti Bhatnagar

Abstract:

This study aims to find if the Transit-oriented planning and development approach benefit the quality of air in neighborhoods of New Delhi. Two methodologies, namely the land use regression analysis and the Transit-oriented development index analysis, are being used to explore this relationship. Land Use Regression Analysis makes use of urban form characteristics as obtained for 33 neighborhoods in Delhi. These comprise road lengths, land use areas, population and household densities, number of amenities and distance between amenities. Regressions are run to establish the relationship between urban form variables and air quality parameters (dependent variables). For the Transit-oriented development index analysis, the Transit-oriented Development index is developed as a composite index comprising 29 urban form indicators. This index is developed by assigning weights to each of the 29 urban form data points. Regressions are run to establish the relationship between the Transit-oriented development index and air quality parameters. The thesis finds that elements of Transit-oriented development if incorporated in planning approach, have a positive effect on air quality. Roads suited for non-motorized transport, well connected civic amenities in neighbourhoods, for instance, have a directly proportional relationship with air quality. Transit-oriented development index, however, is not found to have a consistent relationship with air quality parameters. The reason could this, however, be in the way that the index has been constructed.

Keywords: air quality, land use regression, mixed-use planning, transit-oriented development index, New Delhi

Procedia PDF Downloads 250