Search results for: prediction capability

Authors: Jacob Green, Cecilia Cabrera, Maximilian Jakobs, Andrea Dimitracopoulos, Mark van der Wilk, Ryan Greenhalgh

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Predicting drug properties is key in drug discovery to enable de-risking of assets before expensive clinical trials and to find highly active compounds faster. Interest from the machine learning community has led to the release of a variety of benchmark datasets and proposed methods. However, it remains unclear for practitioners which method or approach is most suitable, as different papers benchmark on different datasets and methods, leading to varying conclusions that are not easily compared. Our large-scale empirical study links together numerous earlier works on different datasets and methods, thus offering a comprehensive overview of the existing property classes, datasets, and their interactions with different methods. We emphasise the importance of uncertainty quantification and the time and, therefore, cost of applying these methods in the drug development decision-making cycle. To the best of the author's knowledge, it has been observed that the optimal approach varies depending on the dataset and that engineered features with classical machine learning methods often outperform deep learning. Specifically, QSAR datasets are typically best analysed with classical methods such as Gaussian Processes, while ADMET datasets are sometimes better described by Trees or deep learning methods such as Graph Neural Networks or language models. Our work highlights that practitioners do not yet have a straightforward, black-box procedure to rely on and sets a precedent for creating practitioner-relevant benchmarks. Deep learning approaches must be proven on these benchmarks to become the practical method of choice in drug property prediction.

Keywords: activity (QSAR), ADMET, classical methods, drug property prediction, empirical study, machine learning

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Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

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We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

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Authors: Donatello Cardone

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) have great potential for use in the field of civil engineering. The author of this manuscript has been involved, since 1996, in several experimental and theoretical studies on the application of SMAs in structural engineering, within national and international research projects. This paper provides an overview of the main results achieved, including the conceptual design, implementation, and testing of different SMA-based devices, namely: (i) energy-dissipating braces for RC buildings, (ii) seismic isolation devices for buildings and bridges, (iii) smart tie-rods for arches and vaults and (iv) seismic restrainers for bridges. The main advantages of using SMA-based devices in the seismic protection of structures derive from the double-flag shape of their hysteresis loops, which implies three favourable features, i.e., self-centering capability, good energy dissipation capability, and high stiffness for small displacements. The main advantages of SMA-based units for steel tie-rods are associated with the thermal behaviour of superelastic SMAs, which is antagonistic compared to that of steel. This implies a strong reduction of force changes due to air temperature variations. Finally, SMA-based seismic restrainers proved to be effective in preventing bridge deck unseating and pounding.

Keywords: seismic protection of structures, shape memory alloys, structural engineering, steel tie-rods, seismic restrainers for bridges

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Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, dynamic systems, MGT, prediction, rail degradation

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Authors: Surita Maini, Sanjay Dhanka

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Machine learning (ML) involves developing algorithms and statistical models that enable computers to learn and make predictions or decisions based on data without being explicitly programmed. Because of its unlimited abilities ML is gaining popularity in medical sectors; Medical Imaging, Electronic Health Records, Genomic Data Analysis, Wearable Devices, Disease Outbreak Prediction, Disease Diagnosis, etc. In the last few decades, many researchers have tried to diagnose Breast Cancer (BC) using ML, because early detection of any disease can save millions of lives. Working in this direction, the authors have proposed a hybrid ML technique RBF SVM, to predict the BC in earlier the stage. The proposed method is implemented on the Breast Cancer UCI ML dataset with 569 instances and 32 attributes. The authors recorded performance metrics of the proposed model i.e., Accuracy 98.24%, Sensitivity 98.67%, Specificity 97.43%, F1 Score 98.67%, Precision 98.67%, and run time 0.044769 seconds. The proposed method is validated by K-Fold cross-validation.

Keywords: breast cancer, support vector classifier, machine learning, hyper parameter tunning

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

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Authors: A. Ejah Umraeni Salam, M. Tola, M. Selintung, F. Maricar

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Clean water is an essential and fundamental human need. Therefore, its supply must be assured by maintaining the quality, quantity and water pressure. However the fact is, on its distribution system, leakage happens and becomes a common world issue. One of the technical causes of the leakage is a leaking pipe. The purpose of the research is how to use the Radial Basis Function Neural (RBFNN) model to detect the location and the magnitude of the pipeline leakage rapidly and efficiently. In this study the RBFNN are trained and tested on data from EPANET hydraulic modeling system. Method of Radial Basis Function Neural Network is proved capable to detect location and magnitude of pipeline leakage with of the accuracy of the prediction results based on the value of RMSE (Root Meant Square Error), comparison prediction and actual measurement approaches 0.000049 for the whole pipeline system.

Keywords: radial basis function neural network, leakage pipeline, EPANET, RMSE

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

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A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, solder joint reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control

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Authors: N. D. Iswarya, M. A. Maluk Mohamed, N. Vijaya

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Grid is infrastructure that allows the deployment of distributed data in large size from multiple locations to reach a common goal. Scheduling data intensive applications becomes challenging as the size of data sets are very huge in size. Only two solutions exist in order to tackle this challenging issue. First, computation which requires huge data sets to be processed can be transferred to the data site. Second, the required data sets can be transferred to the computation site. In the former scenario, the computation cannot be transferred since the servers are storage/data servers with little or no computational capability. Hence, the second scenario can be considered for further exploration. During scheduling, transferring huge data sets from one site to another site requires more network bandwidth. In order to mitigate this issue, this work focuses on incorporating cognitive science in scheduling. Cognitive Science is the study of human brain and its related activities. Current researches are mainly focused on to incorporate cognitive science in various computational modeling techniques. In this work, the problem solving approach of human brain is studied and incorporated during the data intensive scheduling in grid environments. Here, a cognitive engine is designed and deployed in various grid sites. The intelligent agents present in CE will help in analyzing the request and creating the knowledge base. Depending upon the link capacity, decision will be taken whether to transfer data sets or to partition the data sets. Prediction of next request is made by the agents to serve the requesting site with data sets in advance. This will reduce the data availability time and data transfer time. Replica catalog and Meta data catalog created by the agents assist in decision making process.

Keywords: data grid, grid workflow scheduling, cognitive artificial intelligence

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Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper, attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly and Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly and Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicates the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly and Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly and Rbf kernels)

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: recurrent neural networks, global solar radiation, multi-layer perceptron, gradient, root mean square error

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Authors: Daniel Motlhanka, Neo Kerebotswe

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The strong and long history of use of medicinal plants in Botswana to address existing and emerging health threats provides undebatable evidence for their potential as innovative therapeutic tools. The prevalence of emerging health threats, such as COVID-19 and hard-to-treat non-communicable diseases, warrants the scientific community to revisit and exploit ethnopharmacology for its potential as a source of therapeutic tools. Many studies conducted on bioactivity-guided bioassays of ethnobotanical resources have proved a number of health beneficial properties of these plants, such as free radical scavenging, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial and, most importantly, the capability of medicinal plants to alleviate oxidative stress. In this work, a number of medicinal plants used in Botswana traditional medicine were investigated for both their free radical scavenging capability and total phenolic contents using the Free Radical Scavenging Power (FRSP) and Folin Ciocalteau (FC) method. At 100 micrograms/ml all the studied plants expressed above 90% Scavenging power and expressed total phenolic contents between 5000- 8890 mg/L.GAE. These plants are promising tools for engineering active therapeutic tools against life-threatening diseases of oxidative stress origin.

Keywords: oxidative stress, non-communicable diseases, total phenolics, ethnobotanicals

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Authors: Seongjun Kim, Sanghoon Shim, Jinwooung Kim, Jaehwan Jung, Sung-Ah Kim

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As the development of information and communication technology, the convergence of machine learning of the ICT area and design is attempted. In this way, it is possible to grasp the correlation between various design elements, which was difficult to grasp, and to reflect this in the design result. In architecture, there is an attempt to predict the performance, which is difficult to grasp in the past, by finding the correlation among multiple factors mainly through machine learning. In architectural design area, some attempts to predict the performance affected by various factors have been tried. With machine learning, it is possible to quickly predict performance. The aim of this study is to propose a model that predicts performance according to the block arrangement of apartment housing through machine learning and the design alternative which satisfies the performance such as the daylight hours in the most similar form to the alternative proposed by the designer. Through this study, a designer can proceed with the design considering various design alternatives and accurate performances quickly from the early design stage.

Keywords: apartment housing, machine learning, multi-objective optimization, performance prediction

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Authors: Ju-Hyung Kim, Dae-Ho Mun, Hong-Gun Park

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When an impact is applied to a floating floor, noise and vibration response of high-frequency range is reduced effectively, while amplifies the response at low-frequency range. This means floating floor can make worse noise condition when heavy-weight impact is applied. The amplified response is the result of interaction between finishing layer (mortar plate) and concrete slab. Because an impact force is not directly delivered to concrete slab, the impact force waveform or spectrum can be changed. In this paper, the changed impact spectrum was derived from several floating floor vibration tests. Based on the measured data, numerical modeling can describe the floating floor response, especially at low-frequency range. As a result, heavy-weight impact noise can be predicted using modified impact spectrum.

Keywords: floating floor, heavy-weight impact, prediction, vibration

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Authors: Anjian Chen, Joseph C. Chen

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This paper studies a case where the targeted surface roughness of fused deposition modeling (FDM) additive manufacturing process is improved. The process is designing to reduce or eliminate the defects and improve the process capability index Cp and Cpk for an FDM additive manufacturing process. The baseline Cp is 0.274 and Cpk is 0.654. This research utilizes the Taguchi methodology, to eliminate defects and improve the process. The Taguchi method is used to optimize the additive manufacturing process and printing parameters that affect the targeted surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing. The Taguchi L9 orthogonal array is used to organize the parameters' (four controllable parameters and one non-controllable parameter) effectiveness on the FDM additive manufacturing process. The four controllable parameters are nozzle temperature [°C], layer thickness [mm], nozzle speed [mm/s], and extruder speed [%]. The non-controllable parameter is the environmental temperature [°C]. After the optimization of the parameters, a confirmation print was printed to prove that the results can reduce the amount of defects and improve the process capability index Cp from 0.274 to 1.605 and the Cpk from 0.654 to 1.233 for the FDM additive manufacturing process. The final results confirmed that the Taguchi methodology is sufficient to improve the surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing process.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, fused deposition modeling, surface roughness, six-sigma, Taguchi method, 3D printing

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Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

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In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system, capacity performance, automotive

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Authors: J. Ticona Chambi, E. A. De Almeida, C. A. Andrade Raymundo Gaiotto, A. M. Do Espírito Santo, L. Infantes, S. L. Cuffini

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The solubility of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is challenging for the pharmaceutical industry. The new multicomponent crystalline forms as cocrystal and solvates present an opportunity to improve the solubility of APIs. Commonly, the procedure to obtain multicomponent crystalline forms of a drug starts by screening the drug molecule with the different coformers/solvents. However, it is necessary to develop methods to obtain multicomponent forms in an efficient way and with the least possible environmental impact. The Hansen Solubility Parameters (HSPs) is considered a tool to obtain theoretical knowledge of the solubility of the target compound in the chosen solvent. H-Bond Propensity (HBP), Molecular Complementarity (MC), Coordination Values (CV) are tools used for statistical prediction of cocrystals developed by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Center (CCDC). The HSPs and the CCDC tools are based on inter- and intra-molecular interactions. The curcumin (Cur), target molecule, is commonly used as an anti‐inflammatory. The demethoxycurcumin (Demcur) and bisdemethoxycurcumin (Bisdcur) are natural analogues of Cur from turmeric. Those target molecules have differences in their solubilities. In this way, the work aimed to analyze and compare different tools for multicomponent forms prediction (solvates) of Cur, Demcur and Biscur. The HSP values were calculated for Cur, Demcur, and Biscur using the chemical group contribution methods and the statistical optimization from experimental data. The HSPmol software was used. From the HSPs of the target molecules and fifty solvents (listed in the HSP books), the relative energy difference (RED) was determined. The probability of the target molecules would be interacting with the solvent molecule was determined using the CCDC tools. A dataset of fifty molecules of different organic solvents was ranked for each prediction method and by a consensus ranking of different combinations: HSP, CV, HBP and MC values. Based on the prediction, 15 solvents were selected as Dimethyl Sulfoxide (DMSO), Tetrahydrofuran (THF), Acetonitrile (ACN), 1,4-Dioxane (DOX) and others. In a starting analysis, the slow evaporation technique from 50°C at room temperature and 4°C was used to obtain solvates. The single crystals were collected by using a Bruker D8 Venture diffractometer, detector Photon100. The data processing and crystal structure determination were performed using APEX3 and Olex2-1.5 software. According to the results, the HSPs (theoretical and optimized) and the Hansen solubility sphere for Cur, Demcur and Biscur were obtained. With respect to prediction analyses, a way to evaluate the predicting method was through the ranking and the consensus ranking position of solvates already reported in the literature. It was observed that the combination of HSP-CV obtained the best results when compared to the other methods. Furthermore, as a result of solvent selected, six new solvates, Cur-DOX, Cur-DMSO, Bicur-DOX, Bircur-THF, Demcur-DOX, Demcur-ACN and a new Biscur hydrate, were obtained. Crystal structures were determined for Cur-DOX, Biscur-DOX, Demcur-DOX and Bicur-Water. Moreover, the unit-cell parameter information for Cur-DMSO, Biscur-THF and Demcur-ACN were obtained. The preliminary results showed that the prediction method is showing a promising strategy to evaluate the possibility of forming multicomponent. It is currently working on obtaining multicomponent single crystals.

Keywords: curcumin, HSPs, prediction, solvates, solubility

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Authors: Ahmed T. Farid, Muhammed Rizwan

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Geotechnical study for evaluating soil or rock permeability is a highly important parameter. Permeability values for rock formations are more difficult for determination than soil formation as it is an effect of the rock quality and its fracture values. In this research, the prediction of in situ permeability of limestone rock formations was predicted. The limestone rock permeability was evaluated using Lugeon tests (in-situ packer permeability). Different sites which spread all over the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia were chosen to conduct our study of predicting the in-situ permeability of limestone rock. Correlations were deducted between the values of in-situ permeability of the limestone rock with the value of the rock quality designation (RQD) calculated during the execution of the boreholes of the study areas. The study was performed for different ranges of RQD values measured during drilling of the sites boreholes. The developed correlations are recommended for the onsite determination of the in-situ permeability of limestone rock only. For the other sedimentary formations of rock, more studies are needed for predicting the actual correlations related to each type.

Keywords: In situ, packer, permeability, rock, quality

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Authors: Vidar Hepsø

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The energy and oil companies on the Norwegian Continental shelf come from a situation where each asset control and manage their energy supply (island mode) and move towards a situation where the assets need to collaborate and coordinate energy use with others due to increased cost and scarcity of electric energy sharing the energy that is provided. Currently, several areas are electrified either with an onshore grid cable or are receiving intermittent energy from offshore wind-parks. While the onshore grid in Norway is well regulated, the offshore grid is still in the making, with several oil and gas electrification projects and offshore wind development just started. The paper will describe the shift in the mindset that comes with operating this new offshore grid. This transition process heralds an increase in collaboration across boundaries and integration of energy management across companies, businesses, technical disciplines, and engagement with stakeholders in the larger society. This transition will be described as a function of the new challenges with increased complexity of the energy mix (wind, oil/gas, hydrogen and others) coupled with increased technical and organization complexity in energy management. Organizational complexity denotes an increasing integration across boundaries, whether these boundaries are company, vendors, professional disciplines, regulatory regimes/bodies, businesses, and across numerous societal stakeholders. New practices must be developed, made legitimate and institutionalized across these boundaries. Only parts of this complexity can be mitigated technically, e.g.: by use of batteries, mixing energy systems and simulation/ forecasting tools. Many challenges must be mitigated with legitimated societal and institutionalized governance practices on many levels. Offshore electrification supports Norway’s 2030 climate targets but is also controversial since it is exploiting the larger society’s energy resources. This means that new systems and practices must also be transparent, not only for the industry and the authorities, but must also be acceptable and just for the larger society. The paper report from ongoing work in Norway, participant observation and interviews in projects and people working with offshore grid development in Norway. One case presented is the development of an offshore floating windfarm connected to two offshore installations and the second case is an offshore grid development initiative providing six installations electric energy via an onshore cable. The development of the offshore grid is analyzed using a capability platform framework, that describes the technical, competence, work process and governance capabilities that are under development in Norway. A capability platform is a ‘stack’ with the following layers: intelligent infrastructure, information and collaboration, knowledge sharing & analytics and finally business operations. The need for better collaboration and energy forecasting tools/capabilities in this stack will be given a special attention in the two use cases that are presented.

Keywords: capability platform, electrification, carbon footprint, control rooms, energy forecsting, operational model

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Authors: M. Linda Phooko, Phesheya E. Dlamini, Vusumuzi E. Mbanjwa, Rhandu Chauke

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The decline of yields as a consequence of miss-informed land-use decisions poses a threat to sustainable agriculture in South Africa. The non-uniform growth pattern of wheat crop and the yields below expectations has been one of the main concerns for Timatjatji community farmers. This study was then conducted to characterize, classify, and evaluate soils of the farm for sustainable land use planning. A detailed free survey guided by surface features was conducted on a 25 ha farm to check soil variation. It was revealed that Sepane (25%), Bonheim (21%), Rensburg (18%), Katspruit (15%), Arcadia (12%) and Dundee (9%) were the dominant soil forms found across the farm. Field soil description was done to determine morphological characteristics of the soils which were matched with slope percentage and climate to assess the potential of the soils. The land capability results showed that soils were generally shallow due to high clay content in the B horizon. When the climate of the area was factored in (i.e. land potential), it further revealed that the area has low cropping potential due to heat, moisture stress and shallow soils. This implies that the farm is not suitable for annual cropping but can be highly suitable for planted pastures.

Keywords: characterization, land capability, land evaluation, land potential

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Gabrielle Peck, Ryan Hayes

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This research presents the design and creation of a drone gas analyser, aimed at addressing the need for independent data collection and analysis of gas emissions during large-scale fires, particularly wasteland fires. The analyser drone, comprising a lightweight gas analysis system attached to a remote-controlled drone, enables the real-time assessment of smoke toxicity and the monitoring of gases released into the atmosphere during such incidents. The key components of the analyser unit included two gas line inlets connected to glass wool filters, a pump with regulated flow controlled by a mass flow controller, and electrochemical cells for detecting nitrogen oxides, hydrogen cyanide, and oxygen levels. Additionally, a non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) analyser is employed to monitor carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and hydrocarbon concentrations. Thermocouples can be attached to the analyser to monitor temperature, as well as McCaffrey probes combined with pressure transducers to monitor air velocity and wind direction. These additions allow for monitoring of the large fire and can be used for predictions of fire spread. The innovative system not only provides crucial data for assessing smoke toxicity but also contributes to fire prediction and management. The remote-controlled drone's mobility allows for safe and efficient data collection in proximity to the fire source, reducing the need for human exposure to hazardous conditions. The data obtained from the gas analyser unit facilitates informed decision-making by emergency responders, aiding in the protection of both human health and the environment. This abstract highlights the successful development of a drone gas analyser, illustrating its potential for enhancing smoke toxicity analysis and fire prediction capabilities. The integration of this technology into fire management strategies offers a promising solution for addressing the challenges associated with wildfires and other large-scale fire incidents. The project's methodology and results contribute to the growing body of knowledge in the field of environmental monitoring and safety, emphasizing the practical utility of drones for critical applications.

Keywords: fire prediction, drone, smoke toxicity, analyser, fire management

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

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Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

Abstract:

A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

Abstract:

Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

Abstract:

We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

Abstract:

The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Alan Wan

Abstract:

In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Allaw Kamel, Al-Chami Leila

Abstract:

It is important to reduce the human influence on natural resources by identifying an appropriate land use. Moreover, it is essential to carry out the scientific land evaluation. Such kind of analysis allows identifying the main factors of agricultural production and enables decision makers to develop crop management in order to increase the land capability. The key is to match the type and intensity of land use with its natural capability. Therefore; in order to benefit from these areas and invest them to obtain good agricultural production, they must be organized and managed in full. Lebanon suffers from the unorganized agricultural use. We take south Lebanon as a study area, it is the most fertile ground and has a variety of crops. The study aims to identify and locate the most suitable area to cultivate thirteen type of permanent trees which are: apples, avocados, stone fruits in coastal regions and stone fruits in mountain regions, bananas, citrus, loquats, figs, pistachios, mangoes, olives, pomegranates, and grapes. Several geographical factors are taken as criterion for selection of the best location to cultivate. Soil, rainfall, PH, temperature, and elevation are main inputs to create the final map. Input data of each factor is managed, visualized and analyzed using Geographic Information System (GIS). Management GIS tools are implemented to produce input maps capable of identifying suitable areas related to each index. The combination of the different indices map generates the final output map of the suitable place to get the best permanent tree productivity. The output map is reclassified into three suitability classes: low, moderate, and high suitability. Results show different locations suitable for different kinds of trees. Results also reflect the importance of GIS in helping decision makers finding a most suitable location for every tree to get more productivity and a variety in crops.

Keywords: agricultural production, crop management, geographical factors, Geographic Information System, GIS, land capability, permanent trees, suitable location

Procedia PDF Downloads 141