Search results for: emerging risk

Authors: Irfan Zafar

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Over the years the Telecom Industry in the country has shown a lot of progress in terms of infrastructure development coupled with the availability of telecom services. This has however led to the cut throat completion among various operators thus leading to reduced tariffs to the customers. The profit margins have seen a reduction thus leading the operators to think of other avenues by adopting new models while keeping the quality of service intact. The outsourcing of the network and the resources is one such model which has shown promising benefits which includes lower costs, less risk, higher levels of customer support and engagement, predictable expenses, access to the emerging technologies, benefiting from a highly skilled workforce, adaptability, focus on the core business while reducing capital costs. A lot of research has been done on outsourcing in terms of reasons of outsourcing and its benefits. However this study is an attempt to analyze the effects of the outsourcing on an organizations performance (Telecommunication Sector) considering the variables (1) Cost Reduction (2) Organizational Performance (3) Flexibility (4) Employee Performance (5) Access to Specialized Skills & Technology and the (6) Outsourcing Risks.

Keywords: outsourcing, ICT, telecommunication, IT, networking

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Authors: Gabriela R. Silveira, Claudia S. Rocha, Lais S. Vitti, Jeane L. Borges, Helen B. Durgante

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Emerging adulthood occurs after adolescence in a period that maybe be marked by experimentation, identity reconfigurations, labor life demands, and insertion in the work environment, which tends to generate stress and emotional instability. Health promotion programs for the development of strengths and virtues, based on Positive Psychology, for emerging adults are sparse in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the preliminary effects of an online multi-component Positive Psychology program for the health promotion of emerging adults based on Cognitive Behavioural Therapy and Positive Psychology. The program included six online (synchronous) weekly group sessions of approximately two hours each and homework (asynchronous) activities. The themes worked were Values and self-care/Prudence, Optimism, Empathy, Gratitude, Forgiveness, and Meaning of life and work. This study presents data from a longitudinal, pre-experimental design with pre (T1) and post-test (T2) evaluation in the intervention group. 47 individuals aged between 19-30 years old participated, mean age of 24.53 years (SD=3.13), 37 females (78.7%). 42 (89.4%) self-defined as heterosexual, four (8.5%) as homosexual, and one (2.5%) as bisexual. 33 (70.2%) had incomplete higher education, four (8.5%) completed higher education, and seven (14.9%) had a graduate level of education. 27 participants worked (57.4%), out of which 25 were health workers (53.2%). 14 (29.8%) were caregivers, 27 (57.4%) had a spiritual belief, 36 (76.6%) had access to leisure, and 38 (80.9%) had perceived social support. The instruments used were a sociodemographic questionnaire, the 10-item Perceived Stress Scale, and the 12-item General Health Questionnaire. The program was advertised on social networks and interested participants filled out the Consent Form and the evaluation protocol at T1 and T2 via Google Docs form. The main research was approved (CEP n.1,899,368; 4,143,219; CAAE: 61997516.5.0000.5334) and complied with sanitary and Ethics criteria in research with human beings. Wilcoxon statistics revealed significant improvements in indicators of perceived stress between T1 (X=22.21, SD=6.79) and T2 (X=15.10, SD=5.82); (Z=-4.353; p=0.001) as well as depression and anxiety symptoms (T1:X=26.72, SD=8.84; T2: X=19.23, SD=4.68); (Z=-3.945, p=0.001) of the emerging adults after their participation in the programme. The programme has an innovative character not only for presenting an online Positive Psychology approach but also for being based on an intervention developed, evaluated, and manualized in Brazil. By focusing on emerging adults, this study contributes to advancing research on a relatively new field in developmental studies. As a limitation, this is a pre-experimental and pilot study, requiring an increase in sample size for greater statistical robustness, also qualitative data analysis is crucial for methodological complementarity. The importance of investing efforts to accompany this age group and provide advances in longitudinal research in the area of health promotion and disease prevention is highlighted.

Keywords: emerging adults, disease prevention, health promotion, online program

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

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Authors: William Castillo, Hugo Viza, Arturo Vargas

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The Pacific Alliance is a trade bloc that is composed of four emerging economies: Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. These economies have gained macroeconomic stability in the past decade and as a consequence present future economic progress. Under this positive scenario, international business firms have flourished. However, the literature in this region has been widely unexamined. Therefore, it is critical to fill this theoretical gap, especially considering that Latin America is starting to become a global player and it possesses a different institutional context than developed markets. This paper analyzes the effect of international entrepreneurial orientation and institutionalism on international performance, for the Pacific Alliance small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). The literature considers international entrepreneurial orientation to be a powerful managerial capability – along the resource based view- that firms can leverage to obtain a satisfactory international performance. Thereby, obtaining a competitive advantage through the correct allocation of key resources to exploit the capabilities here involved. Entrepreneurial Orientation is defined around five factors: innovation, proactiveness, risk-taking, competitive aggressiveness, and autonomy. Nevertheless, the institutional environment – both local and foreign, adversely affects International Performance; this is especially the case for emerging markets with uncertain scenarios. In this way, the study analyzes an Entrepreneurial Orientation, key endogenous variable of international performance, and Institutionalism, an exogenous variable. The survey data consists of Pacific Alliance SMEs that have foreign operations in at least another country in the trade bloc. Findings are still in an ongoing research process. Later, the study will undertake a structural equation modeling (SEM) using the variance-based partial least square estimation procedure. The software that is going to be used is the SmartPLS. This research contributes to the theoretical discussion of a largely postponed topic: SMEs in Latin America, that has had limited academic research. Also, it has practical implication for decision-makers and policy-makers, providing insights into what is behind international performance.

Keywords: institutional theory, international entrepreneurial orientation, international performance, SMEs, Pacific Alliance

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Authors: Aura Alejandra Burbano Patino, Mariela Agotegaray, Veronica Lassalle, Fernanda Horst

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Water pollution is of worldwide concern due to its importance as an essential resource for life. Industrial and urbanistic growth are anthropogenic activities that have caused an increase of undesirable compounds in water. In the last decade, emerging pollutants have become of great interest since, at very low concentrations (µg/L and ng/L), they exhibit a hazardous effect on wildlife, aquatic ecosystems, and human organisms. One group of emerging pollutants that are a matter of study are pharmaceuticals. Their high consumption rate and their inappropriate disposal have led to their detection in wastewater treatment plant influent, effluent, surface water, and drinking water. In consequence, numerous technologies have been developed to efficiently treat these pollutants. Adsorption appears like an easy and cost-effective technology. One of the most used adsorbents of emerging pollutants removal is carbon-based materials such as hydrochars. This study aims to use a magnetic hydrochar nanocomposite to be employed as an adsorbent for diclofenac removal. Kinetics models and the adsorption efficiency in real water samples were analyzed. For this purpose, a magnetic hydrochar nanocomposite was synthesized through the hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) technique hybridized to co-precipitation to add the magnetic component into the hydrochar, based on iron oxide nanoparticles. The hydrochar was obtained from sunflower husk residue as the precursor. TEM, TGA, FTIR, Zeta potential as a function of pH, DLS, BET technique, and elemental analysis were employed to characterize the material in terms of composition and chemical structure. Adsorption kinetics were carried out in distilled water and real water at room temperature, pH of 5.5 for distilled water and natural pH for real water samples, 1:1 adsorbent: adsorbate dosage ratio, contact times from 10-120 minutes, and 50% dosage concentration of DCF. Results have demonstrated that magnetic hydrochar presents superparamagnetic properties with a saturation magnetization value of 55.28 emu/g. Besides, it is mesoporous with a surface area of 55.52 m²/g. It is composed of magnetite nanoparticles incorporated into the hydrochar matrix, as can be proven by TEM micrographs, FTIR spectra, and zeta potential. On the other hand, kinetic studies were carried out using DCF models, finding percent removal efficiencies up to 85.34% after 80 minutes of contact time. In addition, after 120 minutes of contact time, desorption of emerging pollutants from active sites took place, which indicated that the material got saturated after that t time. In real water samples, percent removal efficiencies decrease up to 57.39%, ascribable to a possible mechanism of competitive adsorption of organic or inorganic compounds, ions for active sites of the magnetic hydrochar. The main suggested adsorption mechanism between the magnetic hydrochar and diclofenac include hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions as well as hydrogen bonds. It can be concluded that the magnetic hydrochar nanocomposite could be valorized into a by-product which appears as an efficient adsorbent for DCF removal as a model emerging pollutant. These results are being complemented by modifying experimental variables such as pollutant’s initial concentration, adsorbent: adsorbate dosage ratio, and temperature. Currently, adsorption assays of other emerging pollutants are being been carried out.

Keywords: environmental remediation, emerging pollutants, hydrochar, magnetite nanoparticles

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: Soraia V. M. de Sá, Miguel A. Faria, José O. Fernandes, Sara C. Cunha

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Cereals play a vital role in fulfilling the nutritional needs of children, supplying essential nutrients crucial for their growth and development. However, concerns arise due to children's heightened vulnerability due to their unique physiology, specific dietary requirements, and relatively higher intake in relation to their body weight. This vulnerability exposes them to harmful food contaminants, particularly mycotoxins, prevalent in cereals. Because of the thermal stability of mycotoxins, conventional industrial food processing often falls short of eliminating them. Children, especially those aged 4 months to 12 years, frequently encounter mycotoxins through the consumption of specialized food products, such as instant foods, breakfast cereals, bars, cookie snacks, fruit puree, and various dairy items. A close monitoring of this demographic group's exposure to mycotoxins is essential, as toxins ingestion may weaken children’s immune systems, reduce their resistance to infectious diseases, and potentially lead to cognitive impairments. The severe toxicity of mycotoxins, some of which are classified as carcinogenic, has spurred the establishment and ongoing revision of legislative limits on mycotoxin levels in food and feed globally. While EU Commission Regulation 1881/2006 addresses well-known mycotoxins in processed cereal-based foods and infant foods, the absence of regulations specifically addressing emerging mycotoxins underscores a glaring gap in the regulatory framework, necessitating immediate attention. Emerging mycotoxins have gained mounting scrutiny in recent years due to their pervasive presence in various foodstuffs, notably cereals and cereal-based products. Alarmingly, exposure to multiple mycotoxins is hypothesized to exhibit higher toxicity than isolated effects, raising particular concerns for products primarily aimed at children. This study scrutinizes the presence of 22 mycotoxins of the diverse range of chemical classes in 148 processed cereal-based foods, including 39 breakfast cereals, 25 infant formulas, 27 snacks, 25 cereal bars, and 32 cookies commercially available in Portugal. The analytical approach employed a modified QuEChERS procedure followed by ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) analysis. Given the paucity of information on the risk assessment of children to multiple mycotoxins in cereal and cereal-based products consumed by children of Portugal pioneers the evaluation of this critical aspect. Overall, aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and aflatoxin G2 (AFG2) emerged as the most prevalent regulated mycotoxins, while enniatin B (ENNB) and sterigmatocystin (STG) were the most frequently detected emerging mycotoxins.

Keywords: cereal-based products, children´s nutrition, food safety, UPLC-MS/MS analysis

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Chuang Bing-Kai, Shih Hsiang-Ju

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Previous studies showed that emergent adults used dating applications the most since it would satisfy their needs for intimacy. It's also found that those emergent adults were mostly non-heterosexual. What’s more, in this digital era, more and more bisexuals and homosexuals choose to establish connections with others through Internet to seek a sense of belonging. However, studies rarely focused on gay men in their emergent adulthood to explore their experiences of dating applications. The purpose of this study was to explore the experience of gay men using dating applications in their emerging adulthood and to understand their self-presentations and the process of it among different relationships while interacting with others upon using dating applications. The semi-structured interview was conducted with those gay men who aged from 18 to 29, felt attracted to people with same gender physically and mentally, considered themselves homosexual from their subjective understanding and had been using dating applications for more than half a year. Research invitations were distributed with the assistance of social media platforms and LGBTQ+ friends in the community. This study adopted a qualitative research approach and applied hermeneutic phenomenology as the method to analyze the transcripts transcribed from the recorded audio, and to explore their using experiences and self-presentations while interacting with others while using dating apps. It’s expected to find out that there are four stages in the self-presentation process including establishing personal identity, self-exploration and experimentation, exploring shared interest and values, developing and maintaining connections. Plus, gay men’s motives to use dating apps play an important role in this process and thus influence how they position the apps in their life. Through this study, professional workers can better understand gay men’s considerations and strategies in their self-presentation process as well as the impact of using motives.

Keywords: dating applications, emerging adulthood, gay men, hermeneutic phenomenology

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Authors: Hayoung Cho, Gabi Cho

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In response to the continuing increase of demands for living environment safety, the Korean government has established and implemented various environmental health policies and set a high priority to the related R&D. However, the level of related technologies such as environmental risk assessment are still relatively low, and there is a need for detailed investment strategies in the field of environmental health research. As scientific research papers can give valuable implications on the development of a certain field, this study analyzed the global research trends in the field of environmental health over the past 10 years (2005~2015). Research topics were extracted from abstracts of the collected SCI papers using topic modeling to study the changes in research trends and discover emerging technologies. The method of topic modeling can improve the traditional bibliometric approach and provide a more comprehensive review of the global research development. The results of this study are expected to help provide insights for effective policy making and R&D investment direction.

Keywords: environmental health, paper analysis, research trends, topic modeling

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: Abdelrhman Elagez, Rolla Monib

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This empirical study investigates the observed risks associated with adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies in the construction industry and proposes potential mitigation strategies. While AI has transformed several industries, the construction industry is slowly adopting advanced technologies like AI, introducing new risks that lack critical analysis in the current literature. A comprehensive literature review identified a research gap, highlighting the lack of critical analysis of risks and the need for a framework to measure and mitigate the risks of AI implementation in the construction industry. Consequently, an online survey was conducted with 24 project managers and construction professionals, possessing experience ranging from 1 to 30 years (with an average of 6.38 years), to gather industry perspectives and concerns relating to AI integration. The survey results yielded several significant findings. Firstly, respondents exhibited a moderate level of familiarity (66.67%) with AI technologies, while the industry's readiness for AI deployment and current usage rates remained low at 2.72 out of 5. Secondly, the top-ranked barriers to AI adoption were identified as lack of awareness, insufficient knowledge and skills, data quality concerns, high implementation costs, absence of prior case studies, and the uncertainty of outcomes. Thirdly, the most significant risks associated with AI use in construction were perceived to be a lack of human control (decision-making), accountability, algorithm bias, data security/privacy, and lack of legislation and regulations. Additionally, the participants acknowledged the value of factors such as education, training, organizational support, and communication in facilitating AI integration within the industry. These findings emphasize the necessity for tailored risk assessment frameworks, guidelines, and governance principles to address the identified risks and promote the responsible adoption of AI technologies in the construction sector.

Keywords: risk management, construction, artificial intelligence, technology

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Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: Jędrzej Minda

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In aviation, a very narrow spectrum of control inceptors exists, namely centre sticks, side-sticks, pedals, and yokes. However, new types of aircraft are emerging, and with them, a need for new inceptors. A manned multicopter created at AGH University of Science and Technology is an aircraft in which the pilot takes a specific orientation in which classical inceptors may be impractical to use. In this paper, a unique kind of control inceptor is described, which aims to provide a handling quality not unlike standard solutions, and provide a firm grip point for the pilot without the risk of involuntary stick movement. Simulations of the pilot-inceptor model were performed in order to compare the dynamic amplification factors of the design described in this paper with the classical one. A functional prototype is built on which drone pilots carry out a comfort-of-use evaluation. This paper provides a general overview of the project, including a literature review, reasoning behind components selection, and mechanism design finalized by conclusions.

Keywords: mechanisms, mechatronics, embedded control, serious gaming for training rescue missions, rescue robotics

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: L. Freeman, D. Bax, V. K. Sapong

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Community-based, preventative approaches to violent extremism may be effective and yet remain an underutilised method. In a realm where security approaches dominate, with the focus on countering violence extremism and combatting radicalisation, community resilience programming remains sparse. This paper will present a survey tool that aims to measure the risk and protective factors that can lead to violent extremism in Mozambique and Tanzania. Conducted in four districts in the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique and one district in Pwani, Tanzania, the survey uses a combination of BRAVE-14, Afrocentric and context-specific questions in order to more fully understand community resilience opportunities and challenges in preventing and countering violent extremism. Developed in Australia and Canada to measure radicalisation risks in individuals and communities, BRAVE-14 is a tool not yet applied in the African continent. Given the emerging threat of Islamic extremism in Northern Mozambique and Eastern Tanzania, which both experience a combination of socio-political exclusion, resource marginalisation and religious/ideological motivations, the development of the survey is timely and fills a much-needed information gap in these regions. Not only have these Islamist groups succeeded in tapping into the grievances of communities by radicalising and recruiting individuals, but their presence in these regions has been characterised by extreme forms of violence, leaving isolated communities vulnerable to attack. The expected result of these findings will facilitate the contextualisation and comparison of the protective and risk factors that inhibit or promote the radicalisation of the youth in these communities. In identifying sources of resilience and vulnerability, this study emphasises the implementation of context-specific intervention programming and provides a strong research tool for understanding youth and community resilience to violent extremism.

Keywords: community resilience, Mozambique, preventing violent extremism, radicalisation, Tanzania

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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