Search results for: inclusion probability

Authors: Christine Li, Amanda Robertson

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Epidermal inclusion cysts occur when epidermal cells are implanted in the dermis following trauma, or surgery. They are a rare cause of an umbilical mass, with very few cases previously reported following abdominal surgery. These lesions can present with a range of symptoms, including palpable mass, pain, redness, or discharge. This paper reports a case of an umbilical epidermal inclusion cyst in a 52-year-old female presenting with a six-week history of a painful, red umbilical lump on a background of two previous diagnostic laparoscopies. Abdominal computed tomography (CT) scans revealed non-specific soft tissue thickening in the umbilical region. This was successfully treated with complete excision of the lesion. Umbilical lumps are a common presentation but can represent a diagnostic challenge. The differential diagnosis should include an epidermal inclusion cyst, particularly in a patient who has had previous abdominal surgery, including laparoscopic surgery.

Keywords: epidermal inclusion cyst, laparoscopy, umbilical mass, umbilicus

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Authors: Shanaj Parvin Jonaki

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After the first wave of the feminist movement, gender has become one of the most important issues to be researched in social science. Many gender theories have been invented and opened a new window to look at. These works showed how gender is a social construct, how gender has been used to oppress, how to rule. While it's the education system’s duty to guide students to understand the concept of gender, it sometimes shows gender-based discrimination. Transgenders exclusion from educational institutes of Bangladesh justifies this very statement. This study aims to figure out how people perceive transgenders’ identity, their inclusion in secondary schools, as well as the underlying barriers in the pathway of inclusion in the context of Bangladesh. A qualitative approach was taken to explore different perspectives towards transgender inclusion from several stakeholders such as students, parents, and teachers of secondary schools and transgenders as well. Data were collected through focus group discussion and interview by convenient sampling. 15 students, 10 parents, and 5 teachers were selected from Bangla Medium school as well as from Madrasha. Collected data were analyzed thematically and were run by experts of gender, education, and psychology to identify the core barriers of inclusion. The study revealed that most of the students, teachers, and parents lacked the knowledge of non-binary gender identities, and they showed unwillingness towards the inclusion of transgender in schools because of the cultural context of Bangladesh. Moreover, this study suggests future initiatives to be taken to ensure the inclusion of transgenders in a secondary school in our country and analyzes it through the lens of feminist theories.

Keywords: education, gender, inclusion, transgender

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Authors: Jerry Hu

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Let G = (V, E) with V = {1, 2, ..., k} be a graph, the k positive integers a₁, a₂, ..., ak are G-wise relatively prime if (aᵢ, aⱼ ) = 1 for {i, j} ∈ E. We use an inductive approach to give an asymptotic formula for the number of k-tuples of integers that are G-wise relatively prime. An exact formula is obtained for the probability that k positive integers are G-wise relatively prime. As a corollary, we also provide an exact formula for the probability that k positive integers have exactly r relatively prime pairs.

Keywords: graph, independent set, G-wise relatively prime, probability

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Authors: A. Selmi, A. Bisharat

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Using Fourier transform and based on the Mindlin's 2^nd gradient model that involves two length scale parameters, the Green's function, the Eshelby tensor, and the Eshelby-like tensor for a spherical inclusion are derived. It is proved that the Eshelby tensor consists of two parts; the classical Eshelby tensor and a gradient part including the length scale parameters which enable the interpretation of the size effect. When the strain gradient is not taken into account, the obtained Green's function and Eshelby tensor reduce to its analogue based on the classical elasticity. The Eshelby tensor in and outside the inclusion, the volume average of the gradient part and the Eshelby-like tensor are explicitly obtained. Unlike the classical Eshelby tensor, the results show that the components of the new Eshelby tensor vary with the position and the inclusion dimensions. It is demonstrated that the contribution of the gradient part should not be neglected.

Keywords: Eshelby tensor, Eshelby-like tensor, Green’s function, Mindlin’s 2nd gradient model, spherical inclusion

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Authors: Tadesse Abera

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This study aimed to investigate the contribution of self-advocacy and engagement in the inclusion of SWDs in HEIs. A convergent parallel mixed methods design was employed. This article reports the quantitative strand. A total of 246 SWDs were selected through stratified proportionate random sampling technique from five public HEIs in Ethiopia. Data were collected through Self-advocacy questionnaire, student engagement scale, and college student experience questionnaire and analyzed through frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, correlation, one sample t-test and multiple regression. Both self-advocacy and engagement were found to have a predictive power on inclusion of respondents in the HEIs, where engagement was found to be more predictor. From the components of self-advocacy, knowledge of self and leadership and from engagement dimensions sense of belonging, cognitive, and valuing in their respective orders were found to have a stronger predictive power on the inclusion of respondents in the institutions. Based on the findings it was concluded that, if students with disabilities work hard to be self-determined, strive for realizing social justice, exert quality effort and seek active involvement, their inclusion in the institutions would be ensured.

Keywords: self-advocacy, engagement, inclusion, students with disabilities, higher education institution

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Authors: Bahareh Zare

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The theory of the investment model of dating infidelity maintains that loyalty is an essential power within romantic relationships. Loyalty signifies both motivation and psychological attachment to maintain a relationship. This study examined the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors (Extraversion, Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness), probability of marital infidelity, and risk of divorce. The participants completed NEO-FFI, INFQ (infidelity questionnaire) and were interviewed by OHI (Oral History Interview). The results demonstrated that extraversion and agreeableness traits were significant predictors for the probability of infidelity and risk of divorce. In addition, conscientiousness predicted the probability of infidelity, while neuroticism predicted the risk of divorce.

Keywords: five factors personality, infidelity, risk of divorce, investment theory

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Authors: Ibrahim Azem

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The purpose of the present study was to investigate the attitudes of regular classroom teachers, special education teachers, principals, social workers, parents of students without disabilities and parents of students with disabilities, in Sultanate Oman towards inclusion of students with disabilities in the general school setting. Participants’ Four hundred fifty schools were selected randomly from all public schools in Sultanate Oman. From these schools 2,025 individuals volunteered to participate in this study. The Attitude Scale toward inclusion was used to measure adults’ attitudes toward teaching students with disabilities with their peers in an inclusive classroom. The scale was developed based on the conceptualization of attitude as a tri component evaluation consisting of cognitive, affective, and behavioral intention. To investigate the validity and the reliability of the scale, it shows that it has valid appropriate connotations and reliability. The results of the study showed that the adult’s role had significant effect (p < .05) on the participants’ attitudes toward inclusion. Moreover, the results indicated significant (p < .05) gender differences in the attitudes toward inclusion, males scored significantly (p < .05) higher than females. The result of the study also showed that the special education teachers had positives attitudes more than the other type of stakeholders.

Keywords: inclusion, students with disabilities, Oman, stakeholders

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Authors: Lei Liu

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Since the famous opening up and reform strategy of China, lots of migrants have flowed from rural areas to urban areas. In this paper, the author investigates the rural elderly left behind, which are defined aged people left alone at home while their adult children have to migrant outside. This phenomenon is a quite general and serious social problem that cannot be ignored, accompanied by the process of urbanization and regional transferring of rural labor. The Chinese internal migration not only exerts great influence to China’s economy and urbanization but also obviously reduces the labor and care to rural aged people. Contrary to assumptions in some migration and aging studies, which show the inevitable negative effects of migration upon the old age care, the author highlights unique features in their daily strategies of house holding to integrate into society with the analysis of the conception of social inclusion. Through life history interviews with elderly left behind in one rural village, this article sheds light on three different factors of social inclusion, namely, economic inclusion, social identity and political inclusion and shows its necessaries to fully understand the status of the social wellbeing of rural elderly left behind.

Keywords: labor migration, elderly left behind, social inclusion, rural China

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Storm Event Analysis (SEA) provides a method to define rainfalls events as storms where each storm has its own amount and duration. By modelling daily probability of different types of storms, the onset, offset and cycle of rainfall seasons can be determined and investigated. Furthermore, researchers from the field of meteorology will be able to study the dynamical characteristics of rainfalls and make predictions for future reference. In this study, four categories of storms; short, intermediate, long and very long storms; are introduced based on the length of storm duration. Daily probability models of storms are built for these four categories of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The models are constructed by using Bernoulli distribution and by applying linear regression on the first Fourier harmonic equation. From the models obtained, it is found that daily probability of storms at the Eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia shows a unimodal pattern with high probability of rain beginning at the end of the year and lasting until early the next year. This is very likely due to the Northeast monsoon season which occurs from November to March every year. Meanwhile, short and intermediate storms at other regions of Peninsular Malaysia experience a bimodal cycle due to the two inter-monsoon seasons. Overall, these models indicate that Peninsular Malaysia can be divided into four distinct regions based on the daily pattern for the probability of various storm events.

Keywords: daily probability model, monsoon seasons, regions, storm events

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Authors: Charlotte Brenner, Fisayo Latilo, McKenna Causey

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This study explores the transformation of teacher candidates' beliefs regarding inclusion and inclusive teaching practices during their instructional and practicum experiences in the Canadian context. With the increasing diversity of schools, the study investigates how teacher candidates' beliefs impact their implementation of inclusive teaching practices, which are essential for meeting diverse student needs. The research examines the influence of teacher education programs, transformative learning experiences, and inclusive practicum placements on teacher candidates' beliefs about inclusion. Using a multiple case study approach, the study assesses teacher candidates' initial beliefs, documents changes in these beliefs after coursework on inclusion, and explores the supports and constraints affecting belief development in both university and practicum settings. Preliminary findings suggest that teacher candidates generally hold positive beliefs about inclusion at the outset of their teacher education programs. However, coursework and practicum experiences significantly shape their understanding of diversity, strategies for inclusion, and awareness of broader social issues related to inclusive classrooms. The research underscores the critical role of teacher education programs in shaping teacher candidates' beliefs about inclusion and highlights the value of transformative learning experiences and inclusive practicum placements in enhancing their understanding of equity and inclusion. Continued research is necessary to identify specific elements within courses and practicum experiences that promote positive beliefs about inclusive teaching practices, ultimately contributing to the creation of more equitable classrooms and improved student outcomes.

Keywords: inclusion, beliefs, teacher candidates, inclusive teaching practices

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

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Statistical inference of normal mean with known coefficient of variation has been investigated recently. This phenomenon occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments when the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. In this paper, we constructed new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. We also derived analytic expressions for the coverage probability of each confidence interval. To confirm our theoretical results, Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their coverage probabilities.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation

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Authors: Muhammad Ali Asadullah, Zafarullah Amir

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In recent years, Vocational Education and Training (VET) has been under discussion by the academic researchers and remained in focus in the political grounds. Due to potential contribution of VET, the World Bank and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) support vocational education to reduce poverty, enhance economic growth and increase competitiveness. This paper examines the impact of Vocational Education and Training on the Economic Growth and Social Inclusion with direct and mediation effect of Social Inclusion. The basic purpose of this study is to assess economic pay-offs as a result of long term investments in VET. Based on the review of Anderson Nilsson, initially we explored the increasing or decreasing trend in investment on VET. Further, the study explores that the countries which invest more on VET, tend to get more economic growth and are socially more ‘inclusive’. It is a longitudinal / panel data study with 12 years of registered data which involves 24 OECD countries. The results of the study indicate the VET has positive association with Social Inclusion and Economic Growth. Further, there is also a positive association of VET and Economic Growth through mediation of Social Inclusion. The current study considers not only issue and challenges in developing VET systems but also contributes to develop the theoretical framework for considering how VET can directly and indirectly improve economic growth and social inclusion. A wider appreciation of how VET’s benefits operate may influence a country’s decisions to invest in it. If policy makers increase investment on VET, the result would be positive in Economic Growth and Social Inclusion. It is also recommended that the same OECD model may be implemented in developing countries like Pakistan.

Keywords: Vocational Education and Training (VET), Social Inclusion, Economic Growth, OECD countries

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

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Authors: Mohammed A. Hajeeh

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This paper examines the behavior of a system, which upon failure is either replaced with certain probability p or imperfectly repaired with probability q. The system is analyzed using Kolmogorov's forward equations method; the analytical expression for the steady state availability is derived as an indicator of the system’s performance. It is found that the analysis becomes more complex as the number of imperfect repairs increases. It is also observed that the availability increases as the number of states and replacement probability increases. Using such an approach in more complex configurations and in dynamic systems is cumbersome; therefore, it is advisable to resort to simulation or heuristics. In this paper, an example is provided for demonstration.

Keywords: repairable models, imperfect, availability, exponential distribution

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: Nwachi Prosper Louis, Cynthia Ogonna Ikesee

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The urban planning system of cities varies by country, but in general, it is an instrument for establishing long-term sustainable frameworks and plans for social, institutional and economic development. There is limited knowledge, development, and implementation of effective and sustainable urban planning structures and plans that encourage social inclusion in most communities. This has led to social, economic and environmental deficiencies resulting in community isolation and segregation in class, ethnicity, and race. Encouraging public participation in the urban planning process is one of the instruments that cities can utilise to achieve better social inclusion outcomes. This paper explores how public participation can be used as a social inclusion tool in the urban planning process to achieve better outcomes in Abuja urban planning system. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of this approach. Also, a conceptual model was developed which evaluates the relationship between public participation and social inclusion outcomes in the urban planning process. It was seen that every community has its peculiar way of life and challenges, and an understanding of these social societal needs is paramount in the urban planning process. Therefore, the involvement of the public in identifying their needs, selecting priorities and identifying strategies offer better chances for developing solutions that are sustainable, feasible and implementable.

Keywords: public participation, social inclusion, urban planning, urban planning process

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

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Authors: Tiffany Gallagher, Sheila Bennett

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Based on data from a larger study, this research is based in a small school district in Ontario, Canada, that has made a transition from self-contained classes for students with exceptionalities to inclusive classroom placements for all students with their age-appropriate peers. The school board aided this transition by hiring Inclusion Coaches with a background in special education to work alongside teachers as partners and inform their inclusive practice. Based on qualitative data from four focus groups conducted with Inclusion Coaches, as well as four blog-style reflections collected at various points over two years, six principles of inclusive practice were identified for coaches. The six principles form a model during transition: pre-requisite, process, precipice, promotion, proof, and promise. These principles are encapsulated in a visual model of a spiraling staircase displaying the conditions that exist prior to coaching, during coaching interactions and considerations for the sustainability of coaching. These six principles are re-iterative and should be re-visited each time a coaching interaction is initiated. Exploring inclusion coaching as a model emulates coaching in other contexts and allows us to examine an established process through a new lens. This research becomes increasingly important as more school boards transition toward inclusive classrooms, The Six ‘P’ Model: Principles of Inclusive Practice for Inclusion Coaches allows for a unique look into a scaffolding model of building educator capacity in an inclusive setting.

Keywords: capacity building, coaching, inclusion, special education

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Authors: Payton Small

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In response to increasing demographic diversity, many U.S. organizations have implemented diversity initiatives to increase the representation of women and ethnic minorities. While these initiatives aim to promote more fair and positive outcomes for underrepresented minorities (URMs) widespread backlash against these policies can negatively impact the groups of individuals that are supposed to be supported by them. A recent theory-based analysis of best practices for instituting diversity policies proposes an "inclusion for all" approach that negotiates the oft-divergent goals and motivations of both marginalized and dominant group members in these contexts. Empirical work finds that "inclusion for all" strategies decrease White's tendency to implicitly associate diversity with exclusion and increased their personal endorsement of diversity initiatives. Similarly, Whites report higher belongingness when considering an inclusion for all approach to diversity versus a colorblind approach. While inclusion-for-all approaches may effectively increase Whites' responsiveness to diversity efforts, the downstream consequences of implementing these policies on URM's have yet to be explored. The current research investigated how inclusion-for-all diversity framing influences Whites' sensitivity to detecting discrimination against URM's as well as perceptions of reverse discrimination against Whites. Lastly, the current research looked at how URM's respond to inclusion-for-all diversity approaches. Three studies investigated the impact of inclusion-for-all diversity framing on perceptions of discrimination against Whites and URM's in a company setting. Two separate mechanisms by which exposure to an inclusion-for-all diversity statement might differentially influence perceptions of discrimination for URMs and Whites were also tested. In Studies 1 and 2, exposure to an inclusion-for-all diversity approach reduced Whites' concerns about reverse discrimination and heightened sensitivity to detecting discrimination against URM's. These effects were mediated by decreased concerns about zero-sum outcomes at the company. Study 3 found that racial minorities are concerned about increased discrimination at a company with an inclusion-for-all diversity statement and that this effect is mediated by decreased feelings of belonging at the company. In sum, companies that adopt an inclusion-for-all approach to diversity implementation reduce Whites' backlash and the negative downstream consequences associated with such backlash; however, racial minorities feel excluded and expect heightened experiences of discrimination at these same companies.

Keywords: diversity, intergroup relations, organizational social psychology, zero-sum

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Authors: Aleksandra Ristic

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The world changes and becomes a global village. Globalization of the last decade has caused changes and developments in the economy and technology, which also affected communication resources and brought diversities of cultural differences, values, relationships, religions, sexual identities, economic backgrounds, mindsets, perspectives, talents, and much more. Diversity without inclusion is marginalization and exclusion. Diversity gives a competitive advantage, enriches, and gives choice and power for decision-making and solutions. On a daily basis, in the role of special educators, we facilitate children’s observations of the world by improving diversity and inclusion in the school system. The subject of the research is children with special needs, expressing and noticing the differences and similarities in the world, while this is the key to their development. The subject of the research is also six pictures, which are similar and unique and represent scenes from everyone’s life. In the methodology, we conducted a theoretical review of the importance of difference, values, equality, inclusion, and exclusion and the quantitative research approach to analyze various factors by children with special needs. We used tools such as self /peer–reflection for them to think and to speak up through their own experiences of the words: difference, values, equality, inclusion, and exclusion. After that, children with special needs observed the photos and attributed those terms to them. By interpreting the results, we deepened our understanding of the power of the child's understanding of individual differences and elements of inclusion, which is based on the experiences at home, in the school environment, and in life. The children, as individuals or establishing networking groups, define those terms and, with the solutions, contribute to making the world more included and accepted.

Keywords: diversity, equality, exclusion, inclusion, special needs, values

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Authors: Sandeep Singh Waraich

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Wireless sensor network (WSN ) consists of a large number of sensor nodes. The disparity in their energy consumption usually lead to the loss of equilibrium in wireless sensor network which may further results in an energy hole problem in wireless network. In this paper, we have considered the inclusion of orphan nodes which usually remain unutilized as intermediate nodes in multi-hop routing. The Orphan Node Inclusion (ONI) Protocol lets the cluster member to bring the orphan nodes into their clusters, thereby saving important resources and increasing network lifetime in critical applications of WSN.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, orphan node, clustering, ONI protocol

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Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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This paper explores probabilistic method for assessing the liquefaction potential of sandy soils. The current simplified methods for assessing soil liquefaction potential use a deterministic safety factor in order to determine whether liquefaction will occur or not. However, these methods are unable to determine the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor. A solution to this problem can be found by reliability analysis.This paper presents a reliability analysis method based on the popular certain liquefaction analysis method. The proposed probabilistic method is formulated based on the results of reliability analyses of 190 field records and observations of soil performance against liquefaction. The results of the present study show that confidence coefficient greater and smaller than 1 does not mean safety and/or liquefaction in cadence for liquefaction, and for assuring liquefaction probability, reliability based method analysis should be used. This reliability method uses the empirical acceleration attenuation law in the Chalos area to derive the probability density distribution function and the statistics for the earthquake-induced cyclic shear stress ratio (CSR). The CSR and CRR statistics are used in continuity with the first order and second moment method to calculate the relation between the liquefaction probability, the safety factor and the reliability index. Based on the proposed method, the liquefaction probability related to a safety factor can be easily calculated. The influence of some of the soil parameters on the liquefaction probability can be quantitatively evaluated.

Keywords: liquefaction, reliability analysis, chalos area, civil and structural engineering

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Amirreza Ghaffari

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Fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore structures is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress, but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The DoB exhibits considerable scatter calling for greater emphasis in accurate determination of its governing probability distribution which is a key input for the fatigue reliability analysis of a tubular joint. Although the tubular X-joints are commonly found in offshore jacket structures, as far as the authors are aware, no comprehensive research has been carried out on the probability distribution of the DoB in tubular X-joints. What has been used so far as the probability distribution of the DoB in reliability analyses is mainly based on assumptions and limited observations, especially in terms of distribution parameters. In the present paper, results of parametric equations available for the calculation of the DoB have been used to develop probability distribution models for the DoB in the chord member of tubular X-joints subjected to four types of bending loads. Based on a parametric study, a set of samples was prepared and density histograms were generated for these samples using Freedman-Diaconis method. Twelve different probability density functions (PDFs) were fitted to these histograms. The maximum likelihood method was utilized to determine the parameters of fitted distributions. In each case, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, after substituting the values of estimated parameters for each distribution, a set of fully defined PDFs have been proposed for the DoB in tubular X-joints subjected to bending loads.

Keywords: tubular X-joint, degree of bending (DoB), probability density function (PDF), Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, minimum flows, probability distribution

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Authors: Frederic Fovet

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Inclusive provisions have been statutorily mandated in North America for now over two decades. Despite a growing body of literature around inclusive practices, many in-service teachers continue to express difficulties when it comes to tangible implementation of inclusion in the everyday classroom. While there is debate around the various forms inclusion can take (UDL, differentiation, personalization, etc.), there appears to be a more significant hurdle in getting in-service teachers to fully embrace inclusion both as a goal and a practice. This paper investigates teachers’ degree of awareness around the Social Model of Disability. It argues that teachers often lack basic awareness of disability studies, more particularly of the Social Model of Disability, and that this has a direct impact on their capacity to conceptualize and embrace inclusion. The paper draws from the researcher’s experience as a graduate instructor with in-service teachers, as well as from his experience as a consultant working with schools and school boards. The methodology chosen here is phenomenology, and it draws on tools such as auto-ethnography. The paper opens a discussion around the reform and transformation of pre-service teacher training. It argues that disability studies should be integrated into teacher training as it plays a key role in having teachers develop a theoretical understanding of disability as a social construct.

Keywords: disability, K-12, inclusion, social model, in-service teachers

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Authors: Parvina Ismayilova

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Inclusion is like cultural diversity because, in the modern world, it is understood as everything that allows you to immerse yourself in the environment with the opportunity to expand your experience. In a narrow sense, inclusion is more associated with "inclusive education" and "inclusive technologies" - that is, it is a principle that allows people with disabilities to interact with the outside world. Technological progress allows people to unite, ensuring that they are seen and heard.

Keywords: diversity, disability, inclusivity, equality

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