Search results for: predictive%20equations

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset

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Authors: Seyedtaghi Mirmohammadi, Jamshid Yazdani, Syavash Etemadi Nejad

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One of the main indoor air parameters in classrooms is dust pollution and it depends on the particle size and exposure duration. However, there is a lake of data about the exposure level to PM2.5 concentrations in rural area classrooms. The objective of the current study was exposure assessment for PM2.5 for students in the classrooms. One year monitoring was carried out for fifteen schools by time-series sampling to evaluate the indoor air PM2.5 in the rural district of Sari city, Iran. A hygrometer and thermometer were used to measure some psychrometric parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) and Real-Time Dust Monitor, (MicroDust Pro, Casella, UK) was used to monitor particulate matters (PM2.5) concentration. The results show the mean indoor PM2.5 concentration in the studied classrooms was 135µg/m3. The regression model indicated that a positive correlation between indoor PM2.5 concentration and relative humidity, also with distance from city center and classroom size. Meanwhile, the regression model revealed that the indoor PM2.5 concentration, the relative humidity, and dry bulb temperature was significant at 0.05, 0.035, and 0.05 levels, respectively. A statistical predictive model was obtained from multiple regressions modeling for indoor PM2.5 concentration and indoor psychrometric parameters conditions.

Keywords: classrooms, concentration, humidity, particulate matters, regression

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Authors: F. A. Olutoge, O.R. Olulope, M. O. Odelola

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This study investigates the strength potentials of groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement in mortar and also develops a predictive model using Artificial Neural Network. Groundnut husks sourced from Ogbomoso, Nigeria, was sun dried, calcined to ash in a furnace at a controlled temperature of 600⁰ C for a period of 6 hours, and sieved through the 75 microns. The ash was subjected to chemical analysis and setting time test. Fine aggregate (sand) for the mortar was sourced from Ado Ekiti, Nigeria. The cement: GHA constituents were blended in ratios 100:0, 95:5, 90:10, 85:15 and 80:20 %. The sum of SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and Fe₂O₃ content in GHA is 26.98%. The compressive strength for mortars PC, GHA5, GHA10, GHA15, and GHA20 ranged from 6.3-10.2 N/mm² at 7days, 7.5-12.3 N/mm² at 14 days, 9.31-13.7 N/mm² at 28 days, 10.4-16.7 N/mm² at 56days and 13.35- 22.3 N/mm² at 90 days respectively, PC, GHA5 and GHA10 had competitive values up to 28 days, but GHA10 gave the highest values at 56 and 90 days while GHA20 had the lowest values at all ages due to dilution effect. Flexural strengths values at 28 days ranged from 1.08 to 1.87 N/mm² and increased to a range of 1.53-4.10 N/mm² at 90 days. The ANN model gave good prediction for compressive strength of the mortars. This study has shown that groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement improves the strength properties of mortar.

Keywords: compressive strength, groundnut husk ash, mortar, pozzolanic index

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Authors: Shu-Ching Chiu, Shu-Fang Chang

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has been actively developing intervention programs to deal with geriatric frailty. In its White Paper on Healthcare Policy 2020, the Department of Health, Bureau of Health Promotion proposed that active aging and the prevention of disability are essential for elderly people to maintain good health. The paper recommended five main policies relevant to this objective, one of which is the prevention of frailty and disability. Scholars have proposed a number of different criteria to diagnose and assess frailty; no consistent or normative standard of measurement is currently available. In addition, many methods of assessment are recursive, which can easily result in recall bias. Due to the relationship between frailty and physical fitness with regard to co-morbidity, it is important that academics optimize the criteria used to assess frailty by objectively evaluating the physical fitness of senior citizens. This study used a review of the literature to identify fitness indicators suitable for measuring frailty in the elderly. This study recommends that measurement criteria be integrated to produce an optimized predictive value for frailty score. Healthcare professionals could use this data to detect frailty at an early stage and provide appropriate care to prevent further debilitation and increase longevity.

Keywords: frailty, aging, physical fitness, optimized criteria, healthcare

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Authors: František Šebek, Petr Kubík, Jindřich Petruška, Jiří Hůlka

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Present study is aimed on the cutting process of circular cross-section rods where the fracture is used to separate one rod into two pieces. Incorporating the phenomenological ductile fracture model into the explicit formulation of finite element method, the process can be analyzed without the necessity of realizing too many real experiments which could be expensive in case of repetitive testing in different conditions. In the present paper, the steel AISI 1045 was examined and the tensile tests of smooth and notched cylindrical bars were conducted together with biaxial testing of the notched tube specimens to calibrate material constants of selected phenomenological ductile fracture models. These were implemented into the Abaqus/Explicit through user subroutine VUMAT and used for cutting process simulation. As the calibration process is based on variables which cannot be obtained directly from experiments, numerical simulations of fracture tests are inevitable part of the calibration. Finally, experiments regarding the cutting process were carried out and predictive capability of selected fracture models is discussed. Concluding remarks then make the summary of gained experience both with the calibration and application of particular ductile fracture criteria.

Keywords: ductile fracture, phenomenological criteria, cutting process, explicit formulation, AISI 1045 steel

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Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

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Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm^–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R² = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R² = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA

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Authors: Pankaj Prashar, Bimlesh Kumar, Ankita Sood, Anamika Gautam

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Pharmacovigilance (PV) is a rapidly growing discipline in pharmaceutical industries as an integral part of clinical research and drug development over the past few decades. PV carries a breadth of scope from drug manufacturing to its regulation with safer utilization. The fundamental steps of PV not only includes data collection and verification, coding of drugs with adverse drug reactions, causality assessment and timely reporting to the authorities but also monitoring drug manufacturing, safety issues, product quality and conduction of due diligence. Standardization of adverse event information, collaboration of multiple departments in different companies, preparation of documents in accordance to both governmental as well as non-governmental organizations (FDA, EMA, GVP, ICH) are the advancements in discipline of PV. De-harmonization, lack of predictive drug safety models, improper funding by government, non-reporting, and non-acceptability of ADRs by developing countries and reports directly from patients to the monitoring centres respectively are the major road backs of PV. Mandatory pharmacovigilance reporting, frequent inspections, funding by government, educating and training medical students, pharmacists and nurses in this segment can bring about empowerment in PV. This area needs to be addressed with a sense of urgency for the safe utilization of pharmaceuticals.

Keywords: pharmacovigilance, regulatory, adverse event, drug safety

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Authors: Ben Clapperton, Daniel Stahl, Kimberley Goldsmith, Trudie Chalder

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Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is a condition characterised by chronic disabling fatigue and other symptoms that currently can't be explained by any underlying medical condition. Although clinical trials support the effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT), the success rate for individual patients is modest. Patients vary in their response and little is known which factors predict or moderate treatment outcomes. The aim of the project is to develop a prediction model from baseline characteristics of patients, such as demographics, clinical and psychological variables, which may predict likely treatment outcome and provide guidance for clinical decision making and help clinicians to recommend the best treatment. The project is aimed at identifying subgroups of patients with similar baseline characteristics that are predictive of treatment effects using modern cluster analyses and data mining machine learning algorithms. The characteristics of these groups will then be used to inform the types of individuals who benefit from a specific treatment. In addition, results will provide a better understanding of for whom the treatment works. The suitability of different clustering methods to identify subgroups and their response to different treatments of CFS patients is compared.

Keywords: chronic fatigue syndrome, latent class analysis, prediction modelling, self-organizing maps

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Authors: Muhammad Bilal Shaikh

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Mineral processing plants play a pivotal role in extracting valuable minerals from raw ores, contributing significantly to various industries. However, the optimization of plant throughput remains a complex challenge, necessitating innovative approaches for increased efficiency and productivity. This research paper investigates the application of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence (MAI) techniques to address this challenge, aiming to improve overall plant throughput in mineral processing operations. The integration of multimodal AI leverages a combination of diverse data sources, including sensor data, images, and textual information, to provide a holistic understanding of the complex processes involved in mineral extraction. The paper explores the synergies between various AI modalities, such as machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing, to create a comprehensive and adaptive system for optimizing mineral processing plants. The primary focus of the research is on developing advanced predictive models that can accurately forecast various parameters affecting plant throughput. Utilizing historical process data, machine learning algorithms are trained to identify patterns, correlations, and dependencies within the intricate network of mineral processing operations. This enables real-time decision-making and process optimization, ultimately leading to enhanced plant throughput. Incorporating computer vision into the multimodal AI framework allows for the analysis of visual data from sensors and cameras positioned throughout the plant. This visual input aids in monitoring equipment conditions, identifying anomalies, and optimizing the flow of raw materials. The combination of machine learning and computer vision enables the creation of predictive maintenance strategies, reducing downtime and improving the overall reliability of mineral processing plants. Furthermore, the integration of natural language processing facilitates the extraction of valuable insights from unstructured textual data, such as maintenance logs, research papers, and operator reports. By understanding and analyzing this textual information, the multimodal AI system can identify trends, potential bottlenecks, and areas for improvement in plant operations. This comprehensive approach enables a more nuanced understanding of the factors influencing throughput and allows for targeted interventions. The research also explores the challenges associated with implementing multimodal AI in mineral processing plants, including data integration, model interpretability, and scalability. Addressing these challenges is crucial for the successful deployment of AI solutions in real-world industrial settings. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed multimodal AI framework, the research conducts case studies in collaboration with mineral processing plants. The results demonstrate tangible improvements in plant throughput, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. The paper concludes with insights into the broader implications of implementing multimodal AI in mineral processing and its potential to revolutionize the industry by providing a robust, adaptive, and data-driven approach to optimizing plant operations. In summary, this research contributes to the evolving field of mineral processing by showcasing the transformative potential of multimodal artificial intelligence in enhancing plant throughput. The proposed framework offers a holistic solution that integrates machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing to address the intricacies of mineral extraction processes, paving the way for a more efficient and sustainable future in the mineral processing industry.

Keywords: multimodal AI, computer vision, NLP, mineral processing, mining

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Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Seyyed Masoud Seyyedoshohadaei, Borhanuddin Mohd Ali

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To support group mobility, the NEMO Basic Support Protocol has been standardized as an extension of Mobile IP that enables an entire network to change its point of attachment to the Internet. Using NEMO in IEEE 802.16e (WiMax) networks causes latency in handover procedure and affects seamless communication of real-time applications. To decrease handover latency and service disruption time, an integrated scheme named Optimized Fast NEMO (OFNEMO) was introduced by authors of this paper. In OFNEMO a pre-establish multi tunnels concept, cross function optimization and cross layer design are used. In this paper, an analytical model is developed to evaluate total cost consisting of signaling and packet delivery costs of the OFNEMO compared with RFC3963. Results show that OFNEMO increases probability of predictive mode compared with RFC3963 due to smaller handover latency. Even though OFNEMO needs extra signalling to pre-establish multi tunnel, it has less total cost thanks to its optimized algorithm. OFNEMO can minimize handover latency for supporting real time application in moving networks.

Keywords: fast mobile IPv6, handover latency, IEEE802.16e, network mobility

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Authors: Kritiyaporn Kunsook

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Machine learning algorithms (MLAs) such us artificial neural networks (ANNs), decision tree, support vector machines (SVMs), Naïve Bayes, and ensemble classifier by voting are powerful data driven methods that are relatively less widely used in the mapping of technique of system, and thus have not been comparatively evaluated together thoroughly in this field. The performances of a series of MLAs, ANNs, decision tree, SVMs, Naïve Bayes, and ensemble classifier by voting in technique of hydroponic systems prospectively modeling are compared based on the accuracy of each model. Classification of hydroponic systems only covers the test samples from vegetables grown with Nutrient film technique (NFT) and Deep flow technique (DFT). The feature, which are the characteristics of vegetables compose harvesting height width, temperature, require light and color. The results indicate that the classification performance of the ANNs is 98%, decision tree is 98%, SVMs is 97.33%, Naïve Bayes is 96.67%, and ensemble classifier by voting is 98.96% algorithm respectively.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, decision tree, support vector machines, naïve Bayes, ensemble classifier by voting

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Authors: Fahad Al Beyahi, Justin Thomas, Md Mamunur Rashid

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Various definitions of digital well-being have emerged in recent years, most of which center on the impacts -beneficial and detrimental- of digital technology on health and well-being (psychological, social, and financial). Other definitions go further, emphasizing the attainment of balance, viewing digital well-being as wholly subjective, the individual’s perception of optimal balance between the benefits and ills associated with online connectivity. Based on this broad conceptualization of digital well-being, we undertook a global survey measuring various dimensions of this emerging construct. The survey was administered across 35 nations and 7 world regions, with 1000 participants within each territory (N= 35000). Along with attitudinal, behavioral, and sociodemographic variables, the survey included measures of depression, anxiety, problematic social media use, gaming disorder, and other relevant metrics. Coupled with nation-level policy audits, these data were used to create a multinational (global) digital well-being index. Nations are ranked based on various dimensions of digital well-being, and predictive models are used to identify resilience and risk factors for problem technology use. In this paper, we will discuss key findings from the survey and the index. This work can inform public policy and shape our responses to the emerging implications of lives increasingly lived online and interconnected with digital technology.

Keywords: technology, health, behavioral addiction, digital wellbeing

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Purva Mishra, Rajesh Potlia, Kuljeet Singh Sandhu

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The role of glycyl residues in the protein structure has lingered within the research community for the last several decades. Glycyl residue is the only amino acid that is achiral due to the lack of a side chain and can, therefore, exhibit Ramachandran conformations that are disallowed for L-amino acids. The structural and functional significance of glycyl residues with L-disallowed conformation, however, remains obscure. Through statistical analysis of various datasets, we found that the glycyls with L-disallowed conformations are over-represented at disease-associated sites and tend to be evolutionarily conserved. The mutations of L-disallowed glycyls tend to destabilize the native conformation, reduce protein solubility, and promote inter-molecular aggregations. We uncovered a structural motif referred to as “β-crescent” formed around the L-disallowed glycyl, which prevents β-sheet aggregation by disrupting the alternating pattern of β-pleats. The L-disallowed conformation of glycyls also holds predictive power to infer the pathogenic missense variants. Altogether, our observations highlight that the L-disallowed conformation of glycyls is selected to facilitate native folding and prevent inter-molecular aggregations. The findings may also have implications for designing more stable proteins and prioritizing the genetic lesions implicated in diseases.

Keywords: Ramachandran plot, β-sheet, protein stability, protein aggregation

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Zehtab, S. Alireza Mirghasemi, Ali Majlesara, Parvin Tajik, Babak Siavashi

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Objective: There are different modalities proposed for tennis elbow treatment with few randomized trials comparing them. We designed a study to compare the effectiveness of five different modalities and determine the usefulness of recently proposed extensor grip test (EGT) in predicting the response to treatment. Methods: In a randomized controlled clinical trial 92 of 98 tennis elbow patients in Sina hospital of Tehran, Iran between 2006 and 2007 fulfill trial entry criteria, among these patients 56 (60.9%) had positive EGT result. Stratified on EGT result, patients allocated randomly to 5 treatment groups: Brace (B) group, physiotherapy (P), brace + physiotherapy (BP), injection (I) and injection + physiotherapy (IP). Results: Patients who had positive result of EGT had better response to treatments: less SOC (p = 0.06), less PFFQ and patients’ satisfaction scores (p < 0.001). Among the treatment IP was the most successful, then BP, P and B, respectively; injection was the worst treatment modality. Response to treatment was comparable in all groups between EGT positive and negative patients except bracing; in which positive EGT was correlated with a dramatic response to treatment. Conclusion: In all patients IP and then BP is recommended but in EGT negatives, bracing seems to be of no use. Injection alone is not recommended in either group.

Keywords: tennis elbow, extensor grip test, physiotherapy, tennis elbow treatment

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Authors: Karlijn Van Den Broek, Ian Walker, Christian Klöckner

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Campaigns aiming to induce energy-saving behaviour among householders use a wide range of approaches that address many different drivers thought to underpin this behaviour. However, little research has compared the relative importance of the different factors that influence energy behaviour, meaning campaigns are not informed about where best to focus resources. Therefore, this study applies the Comprehensive Action Determination Model (CADM) to compare the role of normative, intentional, habitual, and situational processes on energy-saving behaviour. An online survey on a sample of households (N = 247) measured the CADM variables and the data was analysed using structural equation modelling. Results showed that situational and habitual processes were best able to account for energy saving behaviour while normative and intentional processes had little predictive power. These findings suggest that policymakers should move away from motivating householders to save energy and should instead focus their efforts on changing energy habits and creating environments that facilitate energy saving behaviour. These findings add to the wider development in social and environmental psychology that emphasizes the importance of extra-personal variables such as the physical environment in shaping behaviour.

Keywords: energy consumption, behavioural modelling, environmental psychology theory, habits, values

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Authors: Levi Corallo

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Typed language made by humans on computers and cell phones has made a significant distinction from previous modes of written language exchanges. While acronyms remain one of the most predominant markings of typed language, another and perhaps more recent revolution in the way humans communicate has been with the use of symbols or glyphs, primarily Emojis—globally introduced on the iPhone keyboard by Apple in 2008. This paper seeks to analyze the use of symbols in typed communication from both a linguistic and machine learning perspective. The Unicode system will be explored and methods of encoding will be juxtaposed with the current machine and human perception. Topics in how typed symbol usage exists in conversation will be explored as well as topics across current research methods dealing with Emojis like sentiment analysis, predictive text models, and so on. This study proposes that sequential analysis is a significant feature for analyzing unicode characters in a corpus with machine learning. Current models that are trying to learn or translate the meaning of Emojis should be starting to learn using bi- and tri-grams of Emoji, as well as observing the relationship between combinations of different Emoji in tandem. The sociolinguistics of an entire new vernacular of language referred to here as ‘typed language’ will also be delineated across my analysis with unicode glyphs from both a semantic and technical perspective.

Keywords: unicode, text symbols, emojis, glyphs, communication

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Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: student performance, supervised machine learning, classification, cross-validation, prediction

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Authors: Moti Zwilling, Srečko Natek

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This paper aims to present an innovative predictive analytics analysis in order to find the best combination between two consumers who strive to find their partner or in internet sites. The methodology shown in this paper is based on analysis of consumer preferences and involves data mining and machine learning search techniques. The study is composed of two parts: The first part examines by means of descriptive statistics the correlations between a set of parameters that are taken between man and women where they intent to meet each other through the social media, usually the internet. In this part several hypotheses were examined and statistical analysis were taken place. Results show that there is a strong correlation between the affiliated attributes of man and woman as long as concerned to how they present themselves in a social media such as "Facebook". One interesting issue is the strong desire to develop a serious relationship between most of the respondents. In the second part, the authors used common data mining algorithms to search and classify the most important and effective attributes that affect the response rate of the other side. Results exhibit that personal presentation and education background are found as most affective to achieve a positive attitude to one's profile from the other mate.

Keywords: dating sites, social networks, machine learning, decision trees, data mining

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

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Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

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Authors: Florge Francis A. Sy

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Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas with local and systemic complications. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a higher mortality rate. Laboratory parameters like the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean platelet volume (MPV) have been associated with SAP but with conflicting results. This study aims to determine the predictive value of these parameters on the severity and in-hospital mortality of AP. This retrospective, cross-sectional study was done in a private hospital in Cebu City, Philippines. One-hundred five patients were classified according to severity based on the modified Marshall scoring. The admitting hemogram, including the NLR, RDW, and MPV, was obtained from the complete blood count (CBC). Cut-off values for severity and in-hospital mortality were derived from the ROC. Association between NLR, RDW, and MPV with SAP and mortality were determined with a p-value of < 0.05 considered significant. The mean age for AP was 47.6 years, with 50.5% being male. Most had an unknown cause (49.5%), followed by a biliary cause (37.1%). Of the 105 patients, 23 patients had SAP, and 4 died. Older age, longer in-hospital duration, congestive heart failure, elevated creatinine, urea nitrogen, and white blood cell count were seen in SAP. The NLR was associated with in-hospital mortality using a cut-off of > 10.6 (OR 1.133, 95% CI, p-value 0.003) with 100% sensitivity, 70.3% specificity, 11.76% PPV and 100% NPV (AUC 0.855). The NLR was not associated with SAP. The RDW and MPV were not associated with SAP and mortality. The admitting NLR is, therefore, an easily accessible parameter that can predict in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis. Although the present study did not show an association of NLR with SAP nor RDW and MPV with both SAP and mortality, further studies are suggested to establish their clinical value.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, mean platelet volume, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, red cell distribution width

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Authors: Michael Ayodeji Boyede

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Studies have shown that workers’ job performance is very low in Nigeria, especially in the food and beverage industry. This trend had been partially attributed to low workers’ self-efficacy, poor self-knowledge, lack of empathy and poor psychological well-being. The descriptive survey design was adopted. Four factories were purposively selected from three states in Southwestern, Nigeria (Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States). Proportionate random sampling techniques were used in selecting 1,820 junior and supervisory cadre workers in Nestle Plc (369), Coca-Cola Plc (392), Cadbury Plc (443) and Nigeria Breweries (616). The five research instruments used were: Workers’ self-efficacy (r=0.81), Workers’ self-knowledge (r=0.78), Workers’ empathy (r=0.74), Workers’ psychological well-being (r=0.70) and Workers’ performance rating (r=0.72) scales. Quantitative data were analysed using Pearson product moment correlation, Multiple regression at 0.05 level of significance. Findings show that there were significant relationships between Workers’ job performance and self-efficacy (r=.56), self-knowledge (r=.54), Empathy (r=.55) and Psychological Well-being (r=.69) respectively. Self-efficacy, self-knowledge, empathy and psychological well-being jointly predict workers’ job performance (F (4,1815) = 491.05) accounting for 52.0% of its variance. Psychological well-being (B=.52). Self-efficacy (B=.10), self-knowledge (B=.11), empathy (B=. 09) had predictive relative weights on workers’ job performance. Inadequate knowledge and training of the supervisors led to a mismatch of workers thereby reducing workers’ job performance. High self-efficacy, empathy, psychological well-being and good self-knowledge influence workers job performance in the food and beverage industry. Based on the finding employers of labour should provide work environment that would enhance and promote the development of these factors among the workers.

Keywords: self-efficacy, self-knowledge, empathy, psychological well-being, job performance

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Authors: Mirza Mujtaba Baig

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is evolving rapidly, and one of the areas in which this field has influenced is automation. The automobile, healthcare, education, and robotic industries deploy AI technologies constantly, and the automation of tasks is beneficial to allow time for knowledge-based tasks and also introduce convenience to everyday human endeavors. The paper reviews the challenges faced with the current implementations of autonomous self-driving cars by exploring the machine learning, robotics, and artificial intelligence techniques employed for the development of this innovation. The controversy surrounding the development and deployment of autonomous machines, e.g., vehicles, begs the need for the exploration of the configuration of the programming modules. This paper seeks to add to the body of knowledge of research assisting researchers in decreasing the inconsistencies in current programming modules. Blockchain is a technology of which applications are mostly found within the domains of financial, pharmaceutical, manufacturing, and artificial intelligence. The registering of events in a secured manner as well as applying external algorithms required for the data analytics are especially helpful for integrating, adapting, maintaining, and extending to new domains, especially predictive analytics applications.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, automation, big data, self-driving cars, machine learning, neural networking algorithm, blockchain, business intelligence

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Authors: Okoh Charity N.

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This study investigated the predictive power of preschoolers’ involvement in indoor and outdoor learning activities on their social learning skills in Niger state, Nigeria. Two research questions and two null hypotheses guided the study. Correlational research design was employed in the study. The population of the study consisted of 8,568 Nursery III preschoolers across the 549 preschools in the five Local Education Authorities in Niger State. A sample of 390 preschoolers drawn through multistage sampling procedure. Two instruments; Preschoolers’ Learning Activities Rating Scale (PLARS) and Preschoolers’ Social Learning Skills Rating Scale (PSLSRS) developed by the researcher were used for data collection. The reliability coefficients obtained for the PLARS and PSLSRS were 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. Data collected were analyzed using simple linear regression. Results showed that 37% of preschoolers’ social learning skills are predicted by their involvement in indoor learning activities, which is statistically significant (p < 0.05). It also shows that 11% of preschoolers’ social learning skills are predicted by their involvement in outdoor learning activities, which is statistically significant (p < 0.05). Therefore, it was recommended among others, that government and school administrators should employ qualified teachers who will stand as role models for preschoolers’ social skills development and provide indoor and outdoor activities and materials for preschoolers in schools.

Keywords: preschooler, social learning, indoor activities, outdoor activities

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Authors: Monica Alzate, Marcos Dono, Jose Manuel Sabucedo

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As long as collective action and its predictors constitute a big body of work in the field of political psychology, context-dependent studies and moral variables are a relatively new issue. The main goal of this presentation is to examine the differences in the predictors of collective action when taking into account two different types of protest, and also focus on the role of moral obligation as a predictor of collective action. To do so, we sampled both protesters and non-protesters from two mobilizations (N=376; N=563) of different nature (catalan Independence, and an 'indignados' march) and performed a logistic regression and a 2x2 MANOVA analysis. Results showed that the predictive variables that were more discriminative between protesters and non-protesters were identity, injustice, efficacy and moral obligation for the catalan Diada and injustice and moral obligation for the 'indignados'. Also while the catalans scored higher in the identification and efficacy variables, the indignados did so in injustice and moral obligation. Differences are evidenced between two types of collective action that coexist within the same protest cycle. The frames of injustice and moral obligation gain strength in the post-2010 mobilizations, a fact probably associated with the combination of materialist and post-materialist values that distinguish the movement. All of this emphasizes the need of studying protest from a contextual point of view. Besides, moral obligation emerges as key predictor of collective action engagement.

Keywords: collective action, identity, moral obligation, protest

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Authors: Sabah Mohammed, Jinan Fiaidhi, Darien Sawyer

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Data integration of health through connected services can save lives in the event of a medical emergency or provide efficient and effective interventions for the benefit of the patients through the integration of bedside and bench side clinical research. Such integration will support all wind of change in healthcare by being predictive, pre-emptive, personalized, problem-oriented and participatory. Prototyping a healthcare system that enables data integration has been a big challenge for healthcare for a long time. However, an innovative solution started to emerge by focusing on problem lists where everything can connect the problem list forming a growing graph. This notion was introduced by Dr. Lawrence Weed in early 70’s, but the enabling technologies weren’t mature enough to provide a successful implementation prototype. In this article, we are describing our efforts in prototyping Dr. Lawrence Weed's problem-oriented medical record (POMR) and his patient case schema (SOAP) to shape a prototype for connected health. For this, we are using the TypeGraphQL API and our enterprise-based QL4POMR to describe a Web-Based gateway for healthcare services connectivity. Our prototype has reported success in connecting to the HL7 FHIR medical record and the OpenTarget biomedical repositories.

Keywords: connected health, problem-oriented healthcare record, SOAP, QL4POMR, typegraphQL

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