Search results for: hybrid concrete construction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6654

Search results for: hybrid concrete construction

1074 Study of the Non-isothermal Crystallization Kinetics of Polypropylene Homopolymer/Impact Copolymer Composites

Authors: Pixiang Wang, Shaoyang Liu, Yucheng Peng

Abstract:

Polypropylene (PP) is an essential material of numerous applications in different industrial sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive. Because the application of homopolypropylene (HPP) is limited by its relatively low impact strength and high embrittlement temperature, various types of impact copolymer PP (ICPP) that incorporate elastomers/rubbers into HPP to increase impact strength have been successfully commercialized. Crystallization kinetics of an isotactic HPP, an ICPP, and their composites were studied in this work understand the composites’ behaviors better. The Avrami-Jeziorny model was used to describe the crystallization process. For most samples, the Avrami exponent, n, was greater than 3, indicating the crystal grew in three dimensions with spherical geometry. However, the n value could drop below 3 when the ICPP content was 80 wt.% or higher and the cooling rate was 7.5°C/min or lower, implying that the crystals could grow in two dimensions and some lamella structures could be formed under those conditions. The nucleation activity increased with the increase of the ICPP content, demonstrating that the rubber phase in the ICPP acted as a nucleation agent and facilitated the nucleation process. The decrease in crystallization rate after the ICPP content exceeded 60 wt.% might be caused by the excessive amount of crystal nuclei induced by the high ICPP content, which caused strong crystal-crystal interactions and limited the crystal growth space. The nucleation activity and the n value showed high correlations to the mechanical and thermal properties of the materials. The quantitative study of the kinetics of crystallization in this work could be a helpful reference for manufacturing ICPP and HPP/ICPP mixtures.

Keywords: polypropylene, crystallization kinetics, Avrami-Jeziorny model, crystallization activation energy, Nucleation activity

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1073 “Fake It Till You Make It”: A Qualitative Study into the Well-being of Autistic Women

Authors: Kathleen Seers, Rachel Hogg

Abstract:

Diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in women is increasing, prompting research into the presentation of female ASD and exploring why females are failing to meet the diagnostic threshold. One explanation is the use of masking behaviors, where traits of ASD are suppressed and gender-appropriate behaviors are mimicked to reduce the visibility and victimization of ASD girls. Current research explores ASD presentation and the lived experiences of ASD girls and adolescents; however, there is a paucity of literature in relation to the intra- and inter- psychic experiences of ASD women. Through a social constructionist framework, this qualitative study sought to understand how the construction of gender and the medicalisation of ASD influences women’s experiences of ASD. This study also explored the use and consequence of masking strategies and the impact this has on well-being. Eight women were interviewed, and three major themes were identified. The themes outline the influence of gender expectations and social norms on the women’s experiences, the significance of diagnosis to their identity, and the influence of the medicalization of ASD. Participants shared experiences of feeling different and internalizing blame for this difference. The feeling of difference was a major contributor to the women’s positive or negative mental well-being. The process of diagnosis allowed participants to create and confirm their identity. Diagnosis also led to improvements in well-being, however, the findings also explore the complexity of labeling individuals with a disorder and the difficulties that arise from the construct of ‘functionality’ for those with Autism. The study also explores the temporal nature of ASD and the changing experiences of women as they mature. It is hoped this study promotes discussion and provides clinicians and those connected to ASD women with insights into the support ASD women require to live authentic lives.

Keywords: female autism, gender, masking, social constructionism

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1072 Ecological-Economics Evaluation of Water Treatment Systems

Authors: Hwasuk Jung, Seoi Lee, Dongchoon Ryou, Pyungjong Yoo, Seokmo Lee

Abstract:

The Nakdong River being used as drinking water sources for Pusan metropolitan city has the vulnerability of water management due to the fact that industrial areas are located in the upper Nakdong River. Most citizens of Busan think that the water quality of Nakdong River is not good, so they boil or use home filter to drink tap water, which causes unnecessary individual costs to Busan citizens. We need to diversify water intake to reduce the cost and to change the weak water source. Under this background, this study was carried out for the environmental accounting of Namgang dam water treatment system compared to Nakdong River water treatment system by using emergy analysis method to help making reasonable decision. Emergy analysis method evaluates quantitatively both natural environment and human economic activities as an equal unit of measure. The emergy transformity of Namgang dam’s water was 1.16 times larger than that of Nakdong River’s water. Namgang Dam’s water shows larger emergy transformity than that of Nakdong River’s water due to its good water quality. The emergy used in making 1 m3 tap water from Namgang dam water treatment system was 1.26 times larger than that of Nakdong River water treatment system. Namgang dam water treatment system shows larger emergy input than that of Nakdong river water treatment system due to its construction cost of new pipeline for intaking Namgang daw water. If the Won used in making 1 m3 tap water from Nakdong river water treatment system is 1, Namgang dam water treatment system used 1.66. If the Em-won used in making 1 m3 tap water from Nakdong river water treatment system is 1, Namgang dam water treatment system used 1.26. The cost-benefit ratio of Em-won was smaller than that of Won. When we use emergy analysis, which considers the benefit of a natural environment such as good water quality of Namgang dam, Namgang dam water treatment system could be a good alternative for diversifying intake source.

Keywords: emergy, emergy transformity, Em-won, water treatment system

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1071 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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1070 The Role of Nurses and Midwives’ Self-Government in Postgraduate Education in Poland

Authors: Tomasz Holecki, Hanna Dobrowolska

Abstract:

In the Polish health care system, nurses and midwives are obliged to regularly update their professional knowledge. It is all regulated by the Law on the nurse and midwife’s profession and the code of ethics. The professional self-governing body (County Chamber of Nurses and Midwives) is obliged to organize ongoing training for them so that maintaining accessibility and availability to the high quality of educational services could be possible at all levels of post-graduate education. The aim of this study is an analysis of post-graduate education organized by the County Chamber of Nurses and Midwives in the city of Katowice, Poland, as a professional self-governing body operating in the area of Silesian province inhabited by almost 5 million citizens which bring together more than 30 thousand professionally active nurses and midwives. In the years 2000-2017, the self-government of nurses and midwives trained over 50,000 people. The education and supervision system over the labour of nurses and midwives establishes exercising control by a self-governing body. In practice, this means that conducting activities aimed at creating legal regulations and organizational conditions, as well as the practical implementation of courses, belongs to the professional self-government of nurses and midwives. The most of specialization courses that were provided from their own funds came from membership fees. The biggest group was participants of specializations in the fields of cardiac, anesthesia, and preventive nursing. The smallest group of people participated in such specializations as neonatal, emergency, and obstetrics nursing. The most popular specialist courses were in the fields of the electrocardiogram and cardiopulmonary resuscitation, whereas the least popular were the ones in the fields of protective vaccinations of neonates. So-called 'soft training-courses' in the fields of improvement of social skills and management were also provided. The research shows that a vast majority of nurses and midwives are interested in raising their professional qualifications. Specialist courses and selected fields of qualification courses received the most concrete attention. In light of conducted research, one can assert that cooperation inside the community of nurses and midwives provides access to high-quality education and training services regularly used by a wide circle of them. The presented results exemplify a level of real interest in specialist and qualification training-courses and also show sources of financing them.

Keywords: nurses and midwives, ongoing training, postgraduate education, specialist training-courses

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1069 Alkali Activation of Fly Ash, Metakaolin and Slag Blends: Fresh and Hardened Properties

Authors: Weiliang Gong, Lissa Gomes, Lucile Raymond, Hui Xu, Werner Lutze, Ian L. Pegg

Abstract:

Alkali-activated materials, particularly geopolymers, have attracted much interest in academia. Commercial applications are on the rise, as well. Geopolymers are produced typically by a reaction of one or two aluminosilicates with an alkaline solution at room temperature. Fly ash is an important aluminosilicate source. However, using low-Ca fly ash, the byproduct of burning hard or black coal reacts and sets slowly at room temperature. The development of mechanical durability, e.g., compressive strength, is slow as well. The use of fly ashes with relatively high contents ( > 6%) of unburned carbon, i.e., high loss on ignition (LOI), is particularly disadvantageous as well. This paper will show to what extent these impediments can be mitigated by mixing the fly ash with one or two more aluminosilicate sources. The fly ash used here is generated at the Orlando power plant (Florida, USA). It is low in Ca ( < 1.5% CaO) and has a high LOI of > 6%. The additional aluminosilicate sources are metakaolin and blast furnace slag. Binary fly ash-metakaolin and ternary fly ash-metakaolin-slag geopolymers were prepared. Properties of geopolymer pastes before and after setting have been measured. Fresh mixtures of aluminosilicates with an alkaline solution were studied by Vicat needle penetration, rheology, and isothermal calorimetry up to initial setting and beyond. The hardened geopolymers were investigated by SEM/EDS and the compressive strength was measured. Initial setting (fluid to solid transition) was indicated by a rapid increase in yield stress and plastic viscosity. The rheological times of setting were always smaller than the Vicat times of setting. Both times of setting decreased with increasing replacement of fly ash with blast furnace slag in a ternary fly ash-metakaolin-slag geopolymer system. As expected, setting with only Orlando fly ash was the slowest. Replacing 20% fly ash with metakaolin shortened the set time. Replacing increasing fractions of fly ash in the binary system by blast furnace slag (up to 30%) shortened the time of setting even further. The 28-day compressive strength increased drastically from < 20 MPa to 90 MPa. The most interesting finding relates to the calorimetric measurements. The use of two or three aluminosilicates generated significantly more heat (20 to 65%) than the calculated from the weighted sum of the individual aluminosilicates. This synergetic heat contributes or may be responsible for most of the increase of compressive strength of our binary and ternary geopolymers. The synergetic heat effect may be also related to increased incorporation of calcium in sodium aluminosilicate hydrate to form a hybrid (N,C)A-S-H) gel. The time of setting will be correlated with heat release and maximum heat flow.

Keywords: alkali-activated materials, binary and ternary geopolymers, blends of fly ash, metakaolin and blast furnace slag, rheology, synergetic heats

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1068 Natural Patterns for Sustainable Cooling in the Architecture of Residential Buildings in Iran (Hot and Dry Climate)

Authors: Elnaz Abbasian, Mohsen Faizi

Abstract:

In its thousand-year development, architecture has gained valuable patterns. Iran’s desert regions possess developed patterns of traditional architecture and outstanding skeletal features. Unfortunately increasing population and urbanization growth in the past decade as well as the lack of harmony with environment’s texture has destroyed such permanent concepts in the building’s skeleton, causing a lot of energy waste in the modern architecture. The important question is how cooling patterns of Iran’s traditional architecture can be used in a new way in the modern architecture of residential buildings? This research is library-based and documental that looks at sustainable development, analyzes the features of Iranian architecture in hot and dry climate in terms of sustainability as well as historical patterns, and makes a model for real environment. By methodological analysis of past, it intends to suggest a new pattern for residential buildings’ cooling in Iran’s hot and dry climate which is in full accordance to the ecology of the design and at the same time possesses the architectural indices of the past. In the process of cities’ physical development, ecological measures, in proportion to desert’s natural background and climate conditions, has kept the natural fences, preventing buildings from facing climate adversities. Designing and construction of buildings with this viewpoint can reduce the energy needed for maintaining and regulating environmental conditions and with the use of appropriate building technology help minimizing the consumption of fossil fuels while having permanent patterns of desert buildings’ architecture.

Keywords: sustainability concepts, sustainable development, energy climate architecture, fossil fuel, hot and dry climate, patterns of traditional sustainability for residential buildings, modern pattern of cooling

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1067 Design and Modeling of Light Duty Trencher

Authors: Yegetaneh T. Dejenu, Delesa Kejela, Abdulak Alemu

Abstract:

From the earliest time of humankind, the trenches were used for water to flow along and for soldiers to hide in during enemy attacks. Now a day due to civilization, the needs of the human being become endless, and the living condition becomes sophisticated. The unbalance between the needs and resource obligates them to find the way to manage this condition. The attempt to use the scares resource in very efficient and effective way makes the trench an endeavor practice in the world in all countries. A trencher is a construction equipment used to dig trenches, especially for laying pipes or cables, installing drainage, irrigation, installing fencing, and in preparation for trench warfare. It is a machine used to make a ditch by cutting the soil ground and effectively used in agricultural irrigation. The most common types of trencher are wheel trencher, chain trencher, micro trencher, portable trencher. In Ethiopia people have been trenching the ditch for many purposes and the tools they are using are Pickaxe, Shovel and some are using Micro Excavators. The adverse effect of using traditional equipment is, time and energy consuming, less productive, difficult and more man power is required. Hence it is necessary to design and produce low price, and simple machine to narrow this gap. Our objective is to design and model a light duty trencher that is used for trenching the ground or soil for making ditch and used for agricultural, ground cabling, ground piping, and drainage system. The designed machine trenches, maximum of 1-meter depth, 30 cm width, and the required length. The working mechanism is fully hydraulic, and the engine with 12.7 hp will provide suitable power for the pump that delivers 23 l/min at 1500 rpm to drive hydraulic motors and actuators.

Keywords: hydraulics, modelling, trenching, ditch

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1066 Animated Poetry-Film: Poetry in Action

Authors: Linette van der Merwe

Abstract:

It is known that visual artists, performing artists, and literary artists have inspired each other since time immemorial. The enduring, symbiotic relationship between the various art genres is evident where words, colours, lines, and sounds act as metaphors, a physical separation of the transcendental reality of art. Simonides of Keos (c. 556-468 BC) confirmed this, stating that a poem is a talking picture, or, in a more modern expression, a picture is worth a thousand words. It can be seen as an ancient relationship, originating from the epigram (tombstone or artefact inscriptions), the carmen figuratum (figure poem), and the ekphrasis (a description in the form of a poem of a work of art). Visual artists, including Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and Goethe, wrote poems and songs. Goya, Degas, and Picasso are famous for their works of art and for trying their hands at poetry. Afrikaans writers whose fine art is often published together with their writing, as in the case of Andries Bezuidenhout, Breyten Breytenbach, Sheila Cussons, Hennie Meyer, Carina Stander, and Johan van Wyk, among others, are not a strange phenomenon either. Imitating one art form into another art form is a form of translation, transposition, contemplation, and discovery of artistic impressions, showing parallel interpretations rather than physical comparison. It is especially about the harmony that exists between the different art genres, i.e., a poem that describes a painting or a visual text that portrays a poem that becomes a translation, interpretation, and rediscovery of the verbal text, or rather, from the word text to the image text. Poetry-film, as a form of such a translation of the word text into an image text, can be considered a hybrid, transdisciplinary art form that connects poetry and film. Poetry-film is regarded as an intertwined entity of word, sound, and visual image. It is an attempt to transpose and transform a poem into a new artwork that makes the poem more accessible to people who are not necessarily open to the written word and will, in effect, attract a larger audience to a genre that usually has a limited market. Poetry-film is considered a creative expression of an inverted ekphrastic inspiration, a visual description, interpretation, and expression of a poem. Research also emphasises that animated poetry-film is not widely regarded as a genre of anything and is thus severely under-theorized. This paper will focus on Afrikaans animated poetry-films as a multimodal transposition of a poem text to an animated poetry film, with specific reference to animated poetry-films in Filmverse I (2014) and Filmverse II (2016).

Keywords: poetry film, animated poetry film, poetic metaphor, conceptual metaphor, monomodal metaphor, multimodal metaphor, semiotic metaphor, multimodality, metaphor analysis, target domain, source domain

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1065 Evaluating the Use of Swedish by-Product Foundry Sand in Asphalt Mixtures

Authors: Dina Kuttah

Abstract:

It is well known that recycling of by-product materials saves natural resources, reduces by-product volumes, and reduces the need for virgin materials. The steel industry produces a myriad of metal components for industrial chains, which in turn generates mineral discarded sand molds. Although these sands are clean before their use, after casting, they may contain contaminants. Therefore, huge quantities of excess by-product foundry sand (BFS) end up occupying large volumes in landfills. In Sweden, approximately 200000 tonnes of excess BFS end up in landfills. The transportation and construction industries have the greatest potential for reuse by-products because they use vast quantities of earthen materials annually. Accordingly, experimental work has been undertaken to evaluate the possible use of two chosen BFS from two Swedish foundries in a conventional Swedish asphalt mixture. The experimental procedure of this research has focused on the dosage, environmental and technical properties of the same mixture type ABT 11 and the same bitumen (160/220) but at different replacement proportions of the conventional fine sand with the two BFS. The environmental requirements, in addition to the technical requirements, namely, void ratio, static indirect tensile strength ratio, and resilient modulus before and after moisture-induced sensitivity tests of the asphalt mixtures, have been investigated in the current study. The test results demonstrated that the BFS from both foundries can be incorporated in the selected asphalt mixture at specified replacement proportions of the conventional fine sand fraction 0-2 mm, as discussed in the paper.

Keywords: asphalt mixtures, by-product foundry sand, indirect tensile strength, moisture induced sensitivity tests, resilient modulus

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1064 Forecasting Container Throughput: Using Aggregate or Terminal-Specific Data?

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

Abstract:

We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

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1063 Policy Brief/Note of Philippine Health Issues: Human Rights Violations Committed on Healthcare Workers

Authors: Trina Isabel Santiago, Daniel Chua, Jumee Tayaban, Joseph Daniel Timbol, Joshua Yanes

Abstract:

Numerous instances of human rights violations on healthcare workers have been reported during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines. This brief aims to explore these civil and political rights violations and propose recommendations to address these. Our review shows that a wide range of civic and political human rights violations have been committed by individual citizens and government agencies on individual healthcare workers and health worker groups. These violations include discrimination, red-tagging, evictions, illegal arrests, and acts of violence ranging from chemical attacks to homicide. If left unchecked, these issues, compounded by the pandemic, may lead to the exacerbations of the pre-existing problems of the Philippine healthcare system. Despite all pre-existing reports by human rights groups and public media articles, there still seems to be a lack of government action to condemn and prevent these violations. The existence of government agencies which directly contribute to these violations with the lack of condemnation from other agencies further propagate the problem. Given these issues, this policy brief recommends the establishment of an interagency task force for the protection of human rights of healthcare workers as well as the expedited passing of current legislative bills towards the same goal. For more immediate action, we call for the establishment of a dedicated hotline for these incidents with adequate appointment and training of point persons, construction of clear guidelines, and closer collaboration between government agencies in being united against these issues.

Keywords: human rights violations, healthcare workers, COVID-19 pandemic, Philippines

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1062 Women's Menstrual Experience in India: A Psycho-Social Approach

Authors: Bhavna Rajagopal, Mrinmoyi Kulkarni

Abstract:

Today women experience more menstrual cycles than their ancestors did a hundred years ago, owing to early puberty, fewer pregnancies and dietary changes. Much of the research in menstruation is located in the medical domain with a focus on physical symptoms. The research in psychology is largely concerned with premenstrual syndrome (PMS), whereas the focus in sociology is on social and cultural practices relating to menstruation. Research that simultaneously studies the physical, psychological, social and cultural aspects is lacking. Therefore, in this study, an attempt has been made to identify socio-cultural, psychological and physical factors that interact to influence a woman’s experience of menstruation in the urban setting. The study included seven unmarried women in the age group of 24-30 and data was obtained through a focus group discussion. The transcript of the focus group discussion was thematically analysed. Two major themes relating to the self and social experience of menstruation emerged. Themes relating to the self included menarcheal experiences, self-perception, mood and management of menstrual hygiene and symptoms while themes relating to social experience included the construction of menstruation by family and peers, and cultural factors. Attitudes towards the menstrual cycle appeared to be primarily influenced by severity of symptoms and the resulting disruption to daily life. Outcomes of this study have indicated that future research needs to study menstruation and its impact on women’s wellbeing by adopting a socio-ecological approach and by collecting data using the whole cycle approach across a woman’s reproductive years.

Keywords: India, menstrual cycle, psychosocial approach, wellbeing

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1061 Language Maintenance and Literacy of Madurese in Probolinggo City

Authors: Maria Ulfa, Nur Awaliyah Putri

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Madurese is known as Malayo-Sumbawan Austronesian language which is used by Madurese people in Madura Island, Indonesia. However, there was a massive migration of Madurese people due to Dutch colonization. The Madurese people were brought by force for cultivation system to the eastern salient north coast or called as Tapal Kuda that spread in region covers the regencies of Probolinggo, Lumajang, Jember, Situbondo, Bondowoso, and Banyuwangi, the eastern part of the Pasuruan Regency, as well as the city of Probolinggo. The city of Probolinggo has unique characteristic regarding the ethnic and language variation. Several ethnics can be found in this city, such as Madurese, Javanese, Tengger, Arabic, Mandhalungan, Osing, and Chinese. Hence, the hybrid culture happens in Probolinggo, they called the culture as Pendhalungan which is the combination of culture among Madurese and Javanese. Among those ethnics, Madurese is the strongest ethnic that still maintains their identity, such as their ethnic language. The massive growth of Madurese in Probolinggo city, East Java is interesting to be analyzed. The object of this study is to discover language ideology and literacy of Madurese to maintain their ethnic language in Probolinggo city, East Java. The researchers used the theory of language maintenance practice based on three types of practices social language, social literacy, and peripheral ritualized practices. The approach of this study was qualitative research with ethnography method. In order to collect the data, researchers used observation and interview techniques. The amount of informants were 20 families which consist of mother, father and children in 5 sub-districts in Probolinggo city and they were interviewed regarding language ideology and literacy of Madurese. In supporting the data, researchers employed the Madurese speakers outside family scope like in school, office, and market. The result of the study revealed that Madurese has been preserved heritably to young generations by ethnics of Madura in Probolinggo city. Primarily the language is being taught in the earlier age of their children as L1 and used as ethnic identity. The parents teach them with simple sentences that grammatically correct. This language literacy is applied to maintain ethnic language as their ethnicity marker since they inhabit in Javanese ethnic area. In fact, it is not the only ideology of Madurese ethnic but also the influence of economic situation like in trading communication. The usage of Madurese in the trading scope is very beneficial since people can bargain the goods cheaper and easier because most of the traders are from Madurese ethnic. In this situation, linguistic phenomena such as code mixing and code switching between Madurese and Javanese are emerged as the trading communication. From the result, it can be concluded that solidarity exists among Madurese people in many scopes.

Keywords: language literacy, language maintenance, Madurese, Probolinggo City

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1060 An Evolutionary Approach for QAOA for Max-Cut

Authors: Francesca Schiavello

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This work aims to create a hybrid algorithm, combining Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) in the place of traditional gradient based optimization processes. QAOA’s were first introduced in 2014, where, at the time, their algorithm performed better than the traditional best known classical algorithm for Max-cut graphs. Whilst classical algorithms have improved since then and have returned to being faster and more efficient, this was a huge milestone for quantum computing, and their work is often used as a benchmarking tool and a foundational tool to explore variants of QAOA’s. This, alongside with other famous algorithms like Grover’s or Shor’s, highlights to the world the potential that quantum computing holds. It also presents the reality of a real quantum advantage where, if the hardware continues to improve, this could constitute a revolutionary era. Given that the hardware is not there yet, many scientists are working on the software side of things in the hopes of future progress. Some of the major limitations holding back quantum computing are the quality of qubits and the noisy interference they generate in creating solutions, the barren plateaus that effectively hinder the optimization search in the latent space, and the availability of number of qubits limiting the scale of the problem that can be solved. These three issues are intertwined and are part of the motivation for using EAs in this work. Firstly, EAs are not based on gradient or linear optimization methods for the search in the latent space, and because of their freedom from gradients, they should suffer less from barren plateaus. Secondly, given that this algorithm performs a search in the solution space through a population of solutions, it can also be parallelized to speed up the search and optimization problem. The evaluation of the cost function, like in many other algorithms, is notoriously slow, and the ability to parallelize it can drastically improve the competitiveness of QAOA’s with respect to purely classical algorithms. Thirdly, because of the nature and structure of EA’s, solutions can be carried forward in time, making them more robust to noise and uncertainty. Preliminary results show that the EA algorithm attached to QAOA can perform on par with the traditional QAOA with a Cobyla optimizer, which is a linear based method, and in some instances, it can even create a better Max-Cut. Whilst the final objective of the work is to create an algorithm that can consistently beat the original QAOA, or its variants, due to either speedups or quality of the solution, this initial result is promising and show the potential of EAs in this field. Further tests need to be performed on an array of different graphs with the parallelization aspect of the work commencing in October 2023 and tests on real hardware scheduled for early 2024.

Keywords: evolutionary algorithm, max cut, parallel simulation, quantum optimization

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1059 Limited Component Evaluation of the Effect of Regular Cavities on the Sheet Metal Element of the Steel Plate Shear Wall

Authors: Seyyed Abbas Mojtabavi, Mojtaba Fatzaneh Moghadam, Masoud Mahdavi

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Steel Metal Shear Wall is one of the most common and widely used energy dissipation systems in structures, which is used today as a damping system due to the increase in the construction of metal structures. In the present study, the shear wall of the steel plate with dimensions of 5×3 m and thickness of 0.024 m was modeled with 2 floors of total height from the base level with finite element method in Abaqus software. The loading is done as a concentrated load at the upper point of the shear wall on the second floor based on step type buckle. The mesh in the model is applied in two directions of length and width of the shear wall, equal to 0.02 and 0.033, respectively, and the mesh in the models is of sweep type. Finally, it was found that the steel plate shear wall with cavity (CSPSW) compared to the SPSW model, S (Mises), Smax (In-Plane Principal), Smax (In-Plane Principal-ABS), Smax (Min Principal) increased by 53%, 70%, 68% and 43%, respectively. The presence of cavities has led to an increase in the estimated stresses, but their presence has caused critical stresses and critical deformations created to be removed from the inner surface of the shear wall and transferred to the desired sections (regular cavities) which can be suggested as a solution in seismic design and improvement of the structure to transfer possible damage during the earthquake and storm to the desired and pre-designed location in the structure.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall, abacus software, finite element method, , boundary element, seismic structural improvement, von misses stress

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1058 Investigation of Preschool Children's Mathematics Concept Acquisition in Terms of Different Variables

Authors: Hilal Karakuş, Berrin Akman

Abstract:

Preschool years are considered as critical years because of shaping the future lives of individuals. All of the knowledge, skills, and concepts are acquired during this period. Also, basis of academic skills is based on this period. As all of the developmental areas are the fastest in that period, the basis of mathematics education should be given in this period, too. Mathematics is seen as a difficult and abstract course by the most people. Therefore, the enjoyable side of mathematics should be presented in a concrete way in this period to avoid any bias of children for mathematics. This study is conducted to examine mathematics concept acquisition of children in terms of different variables. Screening model is used in this study which is carried out in a quantity way. The study group of this research consists of total 300 children, selected from each class randomly in groups of five, who are from public and private preschools in Çankaya, which is district of Ankara, in 2014-2015 academic year and attending children in the nursery classes and preschool institutions are connected to the Ministry of National Education. The study group of the research was determined by stage sampling method. The schools, which formed study group, are chosen by easy sampling method and the children are chosen by simple random method. Research data were collected with Bracken Basic Concept Scale–Revised Form and Child’s Personal Information Form generated by the researcher in order to get information about children and their families. Bracken Basic Concept Scale-Revised Form consists of 11 sub-dimensions (color, letter, number, size, shape, comparison, direction-location, and quantity, individual and social awareness, building- material) and 307 items. Subtests related to the mathematics were used in this research. In the “Child Individual Information Form” there are items containing demographic information as followings: age of children, gender of children, attending preschools educational intuitions for children, school attendance, mother’s and father’s education levels. At the result of the study, while it was found that children’s mathematics skills differ from age, state of attending any preschool educational intuitions , time of attending any preschool educational intuitions, level of education of their mothers and their fathers; it was found that it does not differ by the gender and type of school they attend.

Keywords: preschool education, preschool period children, mathematics education, mathematics concept acquisitions

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1057 Analysis of Seismic Waves Generated by Blasting Operations and their Response on Buildings

Authors: S. Ziaran, M. Musil, M. Cekan, O. Chlebo

Abstract:

The paper analyzes the response of buildings and industrially structures on seismic waves (low frequency mechanical vibration) generated by blasting operations. The principles of seismic analysis can be applied for different kinds of excitation such as: earthquakes, wind, explosions, random excitation from local transportation, periodic excitation from large rotating and/or machines with reciprocating motion, metal forming processes such as forging, shearing and stamping, chemical reactions, construction and earth moving work, and other strong deterministic and random energy sources caused by human activities. The article deals with the response of seismic, low frequency, mechanical vibrations generated by nearby blasting operations on a residential home. The goal was to determine the fundamental natural frequencies of the measured structure; therefore it is important to determine the resonant frequencies to design a suitable modal damping. The article also analyzes the package of seismic waves generated by blasting (Primary waves – P-waves and Secondary waves S-waves) and investigated the transfer regions. For the detection of seismic waves resulting from an explosion, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and modal analysis, in the frequency domain, is used and the signal was acquired and analyzed also in the time domain. In the conclusions the measured results of seismic waves caused by blasting in a nearby quarry and its effect on a nearby structure (house) is analyzed. The response on the house, including the fundamental natural frequency and possible fatigue damage is also assessed.

Keywords: building structure, seismic waves, spectral analysis, structural response

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1056 Dual-use UAVs in Armed Conflicts: Opportunities and Risks for Cyber and Electronic Warfare

Authors: Piret Pernik

Abstract:

Based on strategic, operational, and technical analysis of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, this paper will examine the opportunities and risks of using small commercial drones (dual-use unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV) for military purposes. The paper discusses the opportunities and risks in the information domain, encompassing both cyber and electromagnetic interference and attacks. The paper will draw conclusions on a possible strategic impact to the battlefield outcomes in the modern armed conflicts by the widespread use of dual-use UAVs. This article will contribute to filling the gap in the literature by examining based on empirical data cyberattacks and electromagnetic interference. Today, more than one hundred states and non-state actors possess UAVs ranging from low cost commodity models, widely are dual-use, available and affordable to anyone, to high-cost combat UAVs (UCAV) with lethal kinetic strike capabilities, which can be enhanced with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Dual-use UAVs have been used by various actors for intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, situational awareness, geolocation, and kinetic targeting. Thus they function as force multipliers enabling kinetic and electronic warfare attacks and provide comparative and asymmetric operational and tactical advances. Some go as far as argue that automated (or semi-automated) systems can change the character of warfare, while others observe that the use of small drones has not changed the balance of power or battlefield outcomes. UAVs give considerable opportunities for commanders, for example, because they can be operated without GPS navigation, makes them less vulnerable and dependent on satellite communications. They can and have been used to conduct cyberattacks, electromagnetic interference, and kinetic attacks. However, they are highly vulnerable to those attacks themselves. So far, strategic studies, literature, and expert commentary have overlooked cybersecurity and electronic interference dimension of the use of dual use UAVs. The studies that link technical analysis of opportunities and risks with strategic battlefield outcomes is missing. It is expected that dual use commercial UAV proliferation in armed and hybrid conflicts will continue and accelerate in the future. Therefore, it is important to understand specific opportunities and risks related to the crowdsourced use of dual-use UAVs, which can have kinetic effects. Technical countermeasures to protect UAVs differ depending on a type of UAV (small, midsize, large, stealth combat), and this paper will offer a unique analysis of small UAVs both from the view of opportunities and risks for commanders and other actors in armed conflict.

Keywords: dual-use technology, cyber attacks, electromagnetic warfare, case studies of cyberattacks in armed conflicts

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1055 Water Management of Erdenet Mining Company

Authors: K. H. Oyuntungalag, Scott Kenner, O. Erdenetuya

Abstract:

The life cycle phases of mining projects are described in this guidance document, and includes initial phases (exploration, feasibility and planning), mine development (construction and operations), closure and reclamation. Initial phases relate to field programs and desktop studies intended to build the data and knowledge base, including the design of water management infrastructure and development during these initial phases. Such a model is essential to demonstrate that the water management plan (WMP) will provide adequate water for the mine operations and sufficient capacity for anticipated flows and volumes, and minimize environmental impacts on the receiving environment. The water and mass balance model must cover the whole mine life cycle, from the start of mine development to a date sufficiently far in the future where the reclaimed landscape is considered self- sustaining following complete closure of the mine (i.e., post- closure). The model simulates the movement of water within the components of the water management infrastructure and project operating areas, and calculates chemical loadings to each mine component. At Erdenet Mining company an initial water balance model reflecting the tailings dam, groundwater seepage and mine process water was developed in collaboration with Dr. Scott Kenner (visiting Fulbright scholar). From this preliminary study the following recommendations were made: 1. Develop a detailed groundwater model to simulate seepage from the tailings dam, 2. Establish an evaporation pan for improving evapotranspiration estimates, and 3. Measure changes in storage of water within the tailings dam and other water storage components within the mine processing.

Keywords: evapotranspiration , monitoring program, Erdenet mining, tailings dam

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1054 Agrarian Distress and out Migration of Youths: Study of a Wet Land Village in Hirakud Command Area, Odisha

Authors: Kishor K. Podh

Abstract:

Agriculture in India treated as the backbone of its economy. It has been accommodated to more than 60 percent of its population as their economic base, directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Besides its significant role, the sharp declines in public investment and development in agriculture have witnessed. After independence Hirakud Command Area (HCA) popularly known as the Rice Bowl of State, due to its fabulous production and provides food to a larger part of the state. After the great green revolution and then liberalization agrarian families become overburden with the loan. They started working as wage laborer in other’s field and non-farm sectors to overcome from the uninvited indebtedness. Although production increases at present, still the youths of this area migrating outsides for job Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, etc. Because agriculture no longer remains a profitable occupation; increasing input costs, the uncertainty of crops, improper pricing, poor marketing, etc. compels the youths to choose the alternative occupations. They work in industries (under contractors), construction workers and other menial jobs due to lack of skills and degrees. Kharmunda a village within HCA selected as per the convenience and 100 youth migrants were interviewed purposively selected who were present during data collection. The study analyses the types of migration; its similarity/differentiations, its determining factors, in tow geographical areas of Western Odisha, i.e., single crop and double crops in relation to agricultural situations.

Keywords: agrarian distress, double crops, Hirakud Command Area, indebtedness, out migration, Western Odisha

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1053 A Hybrid Artificial Intelligence and Two Dimensional Depth Averaged Numerical Model for Solving Shallow Water and Exner Equations Simultaneously

Authors: S. Mehrab Amiri, Nasser Talebbeydokhti

Abstract:

Modeling sediment transport processes by means of numerical approach often poses severe challenges. In this way, a number of techniques have been suggested to solve flow and sediment equations in decoupled, semi-coupled or fully coupled forms. Furthermore, in order to capture flow discontinuities, a number of techniques, like artificial viscosity and shock fitting, have been proposed for solving these equations which are mostly required careful calibration processes. In this research, a numerical scheme for solving shallow water and Exner equations in fully coupled form is presented. First-Order Centered scheme is applied for producing required numerical fluxes and the reconstruction process is carried out toward using Monotonic Upstream Scheme for Conservation Laws to achieve a high order scheme.  In order to satisfy C-property of the scheme in presence of bed topography, Surface Gradient Method is proposed. Combining the presented scheme with fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm for time integration yields a competent numerical scheme. In addition, to handle non-prismatic channels problems, Cartesian Cut Cell Method is employed. A trained Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network which is of Feed Forward Back Propagation (FFBP) type estimates sediment flow discharge in the model rather than usual empirical formulas. Hydrodynamic part of the model is tested for showing its capability in simulation of flow discontinuities, transcritical flows, wetting/drying conditions and non-prismatic channel flows. In this end, dam-break flow onto a locally non-prismatic converging-diverging channel with initially dry bed conditions is modeled. The morphodynamic part of the model is verified simulating dam break on a dry movable bed and bed level variations in an alluvial junction. The results show that the model is capable in capturing the flow discontinuities, solving wetting/drying problems even in non-prismatic channels and presenting proper results for movable bed situations. It can also be deducted that applying Artificial Neural Network, instead of common empirical formulas for estimating sediment flow discharge, leads to more accurate results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, morphodynamic model, sediment continuity equation, shallow water equations

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1052 Construction of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Index through Global Sensitivity Analysis of Radiative Transfer Model

Authors: Guanhua Zhou, Zhongqi Ma

Abstract:

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in wetlands can absorb nitrogen and phosphorus effectively to prevent the eutrophication of water. It is feasible to monitor the distribution of SAV through remote sensing, but for the reason of weak vegetation signals affected by water body, traditional terrestrial vegetation indices are not applicable. This paper aims at constructing SAV index to enhance the vegetation signals and distinguish SAV from water body. The methodology is as follows: (1) select the bands sensitive to the vegetation parameters based on global sensitivity analysis of SAV canopy radiative transfer model; (2) take the soil line concept as reference, analyze the distribution of SAV and water reflectance simulated by SAV canopy model and semi-analytical water model in the two-dimensional space built by different sensitive bands; (3)select the band combinations which have better separation performance between SAV and water, and use them to build the SAVI indices in the form of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI); (4)analyze the sensitivity of indices to the water and vegetation parameters, choose the one more sensitive to vegetation parameters. It is proved that index formed of the bands with central wavelengths in 705nm and 842nm has high sensitivity to chlorophyll content in leaves while it is less affected by water constituents. The model simulation shows a general negative, little correlation of SAV index with increasing water depth. Moreover, the index enhances capabilities in separating SAV from water compared to NDVI. The SAV index is expected to have potential in parameter inversion of wetland remote sensing.

Keywords: global sensitivity analysis, radiative transfer model, submerged aquatic vegetation, vegetation indices

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1051 A Multi Objective Reliable Location-Inventory Capacitated Disruption Facility Problem with Penalty Cost Solve with Efficient Meta Historic Algorithms

Authors: Elham Taghizadeh, Mostafa Abedzadeh, Mostafa Setak

Abstract:

Logistics network is expected that opened facilities work continuously for a long time horizon without any failure; but in real world problems, facilities may face disruptions. This paper studies a reliable joint inventory location problem to optimize cost of facility locations, customers’ assignment, and inventory management decisions when facilities face failure risks and doesn’t work. In our model we assume when a facility is out of work, its customers may be reassigned to other operational facilities otherwise they must endure high penalty costs associated with losing service. For defining the model closer to real world problems, the model is proposed based on p-median problem and the facilities are considered to have limited capacities. We define a new binary variable (Z_is) for showing that customers are not assigned to any facilities. Our problem involve a bi-objective model; the first one minimizes the sum of facility construction costs and expected inventory holding costs, the second one function that mention for the first one is minimizes maximum expected customer costs under normal and failure scenarios. For solving this model we use NSGAII and MOSS algorithms have been applied to find the pareto- archive solution. Also Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is applied for optimizing the NSGAII Algorithm Parameters. We compare performance of two algorithms with three metrics and the results show NSGAII is more suitable for our model.

Keywords: joint inventory-location problem, facility location, NSGAII, MOSS

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1050 Design and Development of Constant Stress Composite Cantilever Beam

Authors: Vinod B. Suryawanshi, Ajit D. Kelkar

Abstract:

Glass fiber reinforced composites materials, due their unique properties such as high mechanical strength to weight ratio, corrosion resistance, and impact resistance have huge potential as structural materials in automotive, construction and transportation applications. However, these properties often come at higher cost owing to complex design methods, difficult manufacturing processes and raw material cost. In this paper, a cost effective design and manufacturing approach for a composite cantilever beam structure is presented. A constant stress (variable cross section) beam concept has been used to design and optimize the shape of composite cantilever beam and thus obtain the reduction in material used. The variable cross section beam was fabricated from the glass epoxy prepregs using cost effective out of autoclave process. The drop ply technique has been successfully used to obtain the variation in the cross section along the span of the beam. In order to test the beam and validate the design, the beam was subjected to different end loads. Strain gauges were mounted along the length of the beam to obtain strains in the beam at different sections and loads. The strain values were used to calculate the flexural strength and bending stresses in the beam. The stresses obtained through strain measurements from the experiment were found to be uniform along the span of the beam, and thus validates the design. Finally, the finite element model for the constant stress beam was developed using commercial finite element simulation software. It was observed that the simulation results agreed very well with the experimental results.

Keywords: beams, composites, constant cross-section, structures

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1049 Predicting Polyethylene Processing Properties Based on Reaction Conditions via a Coupled Kinetic, Stochastic and Rheological Modelling Approach

Authors: Kristina Pflug, Markus Busch

Abstract:

Being able to predict polymer properties and processing behavior based on the applied operating reaction conditions in one of the key challenges in modern polymer reaction engineering. Especially, for cost-intensive processes such as the high-pressure polymerization of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with high safety-requirements, the need for simulation-based process optimization and product design is high. A multi-scale modelling approach was set-up and validated via a series of high-pressure mini-plant autoclave reactor experiments. The approach starts with the numerical modelling of the complex reaction network of the LDPE polymerization taking into consideration the actual reaction conditions. While this gives average product properties, the complex polymeric microstructure including random short- and long-chain branching is calculated via a hybrid Monte Carlo-approach. Finally, the processing behavior of LDPE -its melt flow behavior- is determined in dependence of the previously determined polymeric microstructure using the branch on branch algorithm for randomly branched polymer systems. All three steps of the multi-scale modelling approach can be independently validated against analytical data. A triple-detector GPC containing an IR, viscosimetry and multi-angle light scattering detector is applied. It serves to determine molecular weight distributions as well as chain-length dependent short- and long-chain branching frequencies. 13C-NMR measurements give average branching frequencies, and rheological measurements in shear and extension serve to characterize the polymeric flow behavior. The accordance of experimental and modelled results was found to be extraordinary, especially taking into consideration that the applied multi-scale modelling approach does not contain parameter fitting of the data. This validates the suggested approach and proves its universality at the same time. In the next step, the modelling approach can be applied to other reactor types, such as tubular reactors or industrial scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for systematically varying process conditions is easily feasible. The developed multi-scale modelling approach finally gives the opportunity to predict and design LDPE processing behavior simply based on process conditions such as feed streams and inlet temperatures and pressures.

Keywords: low-density polyethylene, multi-scale modelling, polymer properties, reaction engineering, rheology

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
1048 Reflecting Socio-Political Needs in Education Policy-Making: An Exploratory Study of Vietnam's Key Education Reforms (1945-2017)

Authors: Linh Tong

Abstract:

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of key education reforms in Vietnam from 1945 to 2017, which reflects an evolution of socio-political needs of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam throughout this period. It explores the contextual conditions, motivations and ambitions influencing the formation of the education reforms in Vietnam. It also looks, from an applied practical perspective, at the influence of politics on education policy-making. The research methodology includes a content analysis of curriculum designs proposed by the Ministry of Education and Training, relevant resolutions and executive orders passed by the National Assembly and the Prime Minister, as well as interviews with experts and key stakeholders. The results point to a particular configuration of factors which have been inspiring the shape and substance of these reforms and which have most certainly influenced their implementation. This configuration evolves from the immediate needs to erase illiteracy and cultivate socialist economic model at the beginning of Vietnam’s independence in 1945-1975, to a renewed urge to adopt market-oriented economy in 1986 and cautiously communicate with the outside world until 2000s, and to currently a demonstrated desire to fully integrate into the global economy and tackle with rising concerns about national security (the South China Sea Dispute), environmental sustainability, construction of a knowledge economy, and a rule-of-law society. Overall, the paper attempts to map Vietnam’s socio-political needs with the changing sets of goals and expected outcomes in teaching and learning methodologies and practices as introduced in Vietnamese key education reforms.

Keywords: curriculum development, knowledge society, national security, politics of education policy-making, Vietnam's education reforms

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1047 Low Impact Development Strategies Applied in the Water System Planning in the Coastal Eco-Green Campus

Authors: Ying Li, Zaisheng Hong, Weihong Wang

Abstract:

With the rapid enlargement of the size of Chinese universities, newly built campuses are springing up everywhere in recent years. It is urged to build eco-green campus because the role of higher education institutions in the transition to a more sustainable society has been highlighted for almost three decades. On condition that a new campus is usually built on an undeveloped site, where the basic infrastructure is not completed, finding proper strategies in planning and design of the campus becomes a primary concern. Low Impact Development (LID) options have been proposed as an alternative approach to make better use of rainwater in planning and design of an undeveloped site. On the basis of analyzing the natural circumstance, geographic condition, and other relative information, four main LID approaches are coordinated in this study of Hebei Union University, which are ‘Storage’, ‘Retaining’, ‘Infiltration’ and ‘Purification’. ‘Storage’ refers to a big central lake in the campus for rainwater harvesting. ‘Retaining’ means rainwater gardens scattered in the campus, also being known as bioretention areas which mimic the naturally created pools of water, to decrease surface flow runoff. ‘Infiltration’ is designed of grassed swales, which also play a part of floodway channel. ‘Purification’ is known as either natural or artificial wetland to reduce pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorous in the waterbody. With above mentioned measures dealing with the synthetic use of rainwater in the acid & alkali area in the coastal district, an eco-green campus construction and an ecological sustainability will be realized, which will give us more enlightenment and reference.

Keywords: newly built campus, low impact development, planning design, rainwater reuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 222
1046 Communication of Expected Survival Time to Cancer Patients: How It Is Done and How It Should Be Done

Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

Abstract:

Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

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1045 The Impact of Infectious Disease on Densely Populated Urban Area: In Terms of COVID-19

Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

Abstract:

In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

Procedia PDF Downloads 59