Search results for: parametric estimation
2132 Numerical Analysis Of Stainless Steel Beam To Column Joints With Bolted Flush End Plates
Authors: Takwiir Tahriim Khan, Tausif Khalid, Mohammad Redwan Ahamed, Md Soebur Rahman
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The mutual connection in joints has a significant impact on the safe and cost-effective design of steel structures. Generally, the end plates are welded at the end of the beam and columns are bolted with the end plates. Thus, the moment will be transferred at the interface, which is a critical segment at the connection. 3-D Finite Element Models (FEM) has been developed using ABAQUS 2017 software to predict the yield capacity of the end plate connections. The parameters used in this study are the depth, width, and thickness of the end plate, dimensions of the bolt, sectional and material properties of beams and columns. The influence width, depth, and thicknesses of the end plate connection on yield capacity were investigated through parametric studies. The results showed that, for increasing plate thickness from 0.3 inch to 0.8 inch by an increment of 0.1 inch the yield capacity increased by 2.85% on average, for decreasing the end plate depth from 13 inch to 11 inch the yield capacity increased by 25.4 %, and for decreasing the end plate width from 6.5 inch to 5.75 inch the yield capacity increased by 35.4%. Variation in yield capacity was also found by changing the beam and column section. Besides, the numerical results showed a good agreement with published experimental literature with an average variation of less than 8.3 % in yield capacity. So the study allows for a more effective combination of beam, column, and end plate dimensions.Keywords: steel beam-column joints, finite element analysis, yield moment capacity, parametric study, ABAQUS, bolted joints, flush end plates, moment vs rotation curves
Procedia PDF Downloads 1082131 SNR Classification Using Multiple CNNs
Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley
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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.Keywords: classification, CNN, deep learning, prediction, SNR
Procedia PDF Downloads 1352130 A Parametric Study of the Effect of Size, Position, and Number of Flexible Membranes Attached to a Circular Cylinder on the Fluid Flow Behavior
Authors: Nabaouia.Maktouf, Ali Ben Moussa, Saïd Turki
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This paper discusses the effect of an attached flexible membrane on the control of fluid around a circular cylinder. A parametric study has been investigated for different positions, sizes, modes as well as frequencies of oscillation of the flexible membrane. The numerical investigation was conducted for a Reynolds number equal to 150 using the commercial code Fluent 16.0 and parallel calculation into 4 processors. The motion of the flexible membrane was managed by the dynamic mesh and compiled into Fluent as a user-defined function. The first part of this paper discusses the effect of changing the position of a flexible membrane sized 8° as an angle of aperture on the aerodynamic coefficients. Results show that the flexible membrane placed at 110° from the stagnation point presents more non-linearity on the behavior of the drag coefficient compared to the drag behavior when placed at 180°, relative to the stagnation point. The effect of the size of the flexible surface was studied for the corresponding angles of aperture: 32° and 42°, respectively. The effect of modes (modes 1, 2, and 3) of vibrations has been investigated at a constant frequency of vibration f=2Hz for angles 32° and 42°. All the calculations have been done with a constant amplitude A =0.001m. A non-linearity of the drag coefficient was clearly observed for all the sizes, modes as well as frequencies of excitation. The Fast Fourier transformation shows the appearance of the natural shedding frequency and the multiples of the frequency of excitation. An increase in the modes of oscillation leads to a more linear behavior of the drag coefficient.Keywords: fluid flow control, numerical simulation, dynamic mesh, aerodynamic forces, flexible membrane
Procedia PDF Downloads 772129 Lateral Torsional Buckling Investigation on Welded Q460GJ Structural Steel Unrestrained Beams under a Point Load
Authors: Yue Zhang, Bo Yang, Gang Xiong, Mohamed Elchalakanic, Shidong Nie
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This study aims to investigate the lateral torsional buckling of I-shaped cross-section beams fabricated from Q460GJ structural steel plates. Both experimental and numerical simulation results are presented in this paper. A total of eight specimens were tested under a three-point bending, and the corresponding numerical models were established to conduct parametric studies. The effects of some key parameters such as the non-dimensional member slenderness and the height-to-width ratio, were investigated based on the verified numerical models. Also, the results obtained from the parametric studies were compared with the predictions calculated by different design codes including the Chinese design code (GB50017-2003, 2003), the new draft version of Chinese design code (GB50017-201X, 2012), Eurocode 3 (EC3, 2005) and the North America design code (ANSI/AISC360-10, 2010). These comparisons indicated that the sectional height-to-width ratio does not play an important role to influence the overall stability load-carrying capacity of Q460GJ structural steel beams with welded I-shaped cross-sections. It was also found that the design methods in GB50017-2003 and ANSI/AISC360-10 overestimate the overall stability and load-carrying capacity of Q460GJ welded I-shaped cross-section beams.Keywords: experimental study, finite element analysis, global stability, lateral torsional buckling, Q460GJ structural steel
Procedia PDF Downloads 3282128 Integrative System of GDP, Emissions, Health Services and Population Health in Vietnam: Dynamic Panel Data Estimation
Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin
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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health
Procedia PDF Downloads 6282127 Uncertainty Estimation in Neural Networks through Transfer Learning
Authors: Ashish James, Anusha James
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The impressive predictive performance of deep learning techniques on a wide range of tasks has led to its widespread use. Estimating the confidence of these predictions is paramount for improving the safety and reliability of such systems. However, the uncertainty estimates provided by neural networks (NNs) tend to be overconfident and unreasonable. Ensemble of NNs typically produce good predictions but uncertainty estimates tend to be inconsistent. Inspired by these, this paper presents a framework that can quantitatively estimate the uncertainties by leveraging the advances in transfer learning through slight modification to the existing training pipelines. This promising algorithm is developed with an intention of deployment in real world problems which already boast a good predictive performance by reusing those pretrained models. The idea is to capture the behavior of the trained NNs for the base task by augmenting it with the uncertainty estimates from a supplementary network. A series of experiments with known and unknown distributions show that the proposed approach produces well calibrated uncertainty estimates with high quality predictions.Keywords: uncertainty estimation, neural networks, transfer learning, regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 1372126 Investigating the Impact of Task Demand and Duration on Passage of Time Judgements and Duration Estimates
Authors: Jesika A. Walker, Mohammed Aswad, Guy Lacroix, Denis Cousineau
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There is a fundamental disconnect between the experience of time passing and the chronometric units by which time is quantified. Specifically, there appears to be no relationship between the passage of time judgments (PoTJs) and verbal duration estimates at short durations (e.g., < 2000 milliseconds). When a duration is longer than several minutes, however, evidence suggests that a slower feeling of time passing is predictive of overestimation. Might the length of a task moderate the relation between PoTJs and duration estimates? Similarly, the estimation paradigm (prospective vs. retrospective) and the mental effort demanded of a task (task demand) have both been found to influence duration estimates. However, only a handful of experiments have investigated these effects for tasks of long durations, and the results have been mixed. Thus, might the length of a task also moderate the effects of the estimation paradigm and task demand on duration estimates? To investigate these questions, 273 participants performed either an easy or difficult visual and memory search task for either eight or 58 minutes, under prospective or retrospective instructions. Afterward, participants provided a duration estimate in minutes, followed by a PoTJ on a Likert scale (1 = very slow, 7 = very fast). A 2 (prospective vs. retrospective) × 2 (eight minutes vs. 58 minutes) × 2 (high vs. low difficulty) between-subjects ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between task demand and task duration on PoTJs, p = .02. Specifically, time felt faster in the more challenging task, but only in the eight-minute condition, p < .01. Duration estimates were transformed into RATIOs (estimate/actual duration) to standardize estimates across durations. An ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between estimation paradigm and task duration, p = .03. Specifically, participants overestimated the task more if they were given prospective instructions, but only in the eight-minute task. Surprisingly, there was no effect of task difficulty on duration estimates. Thus, the demands of a task may influence ‘feeling of time’ and ‘estimation time’ differently, contributing to the existing theory that these two forms of time judgement rely on separate underlying cognitive mechanisms. Finally, a significant main effect of task duration was found for both PoTJs and duration estimates (ps < .001). Participants underestimated the 58-minute task (m = 42.5 minutes) and overestimated the eight-minute task (m = 10.7 minutes). Yet, they reported the 58-minute task as passing significantly slower on a Likert scale (m = 2.5) compared to the eight-minute task (m = 4.1). In fact, a significant correlation was found between PoTJ and duration estimation (r = .27, p <.001). This experiment thus provides evidence for a compensatory effect at longer durations, in which people underestimate a ‘slow feeling condition and overestimate a ‘fast feeling condition. The results are discussed in relation to heuristics that might alter the relationship between these two variables when conditions range from several minutes up to almost an hour.Keywords: duration estimates, long durations, passage of time judgements, task demands
Procedia PDF Downloads 1322125 Finite Element Modeling of the Effects of Loss of Rigid Pavements Slab Support Due to Built-In Curling
Authors: Ali Ashtiani, Cesar Carrasco
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Accurate determination of thermo-mechanical responses of jointed concrete pavement slabs is essential to implement an effective mechanistic design. Temperature-induced curling of concrete slabs can produce premature top-down cracking in rigid pavements. Curling of concrete slabs can result from daily temperature variation through the slab thickness. The slab curling can also result from temperature gradients due hot weather construction, drying shrinkage and creep that are permanently built into the slabs. The existence of permanent curling implies that concrete slabs are not flat at zero temperature gradient. In this case, slabs may not be in full contact with the underlying base layer when subjecting to traffic. Built-in curling can be a major factor producing loss of slab support. The magnitude of stresses induced in slabs is influenced by the stiffness of the underlying foundation layers and the contact condition along the slab-foundation interface. An approach for finite element modeling of the effect of loss of slab support due to built-in curling is presented in this paper. A series of parametric studies is carried out for a pavement system loaded with a combination of traffic and thermal loads, considering different built-in curling and different foundation rigidities. The results explain the effect of loss of support in the magnitude of stresses produced in concrete slabs. The results of parametric study can also be used to evaluate whether the governing equations that are used to idealize the behavior of jointed concrete pavements and the effect of loss of support have been accurately selected and implemented in the finite element model.Keywords: built-in curling, finite element modeling, loss of slab support, rigid pavement
Procedia PDF Downloads 1492124 Poster : Incident Signals Estimation Based on a Modified MCA Learning Algorithm
Authors: Rashid Ahmed , John N. Avaritsiotis
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Many signal subspace-based approaches have already been proposed for determining the fixed Direction of Arrival (DOA) of plane waves impinging on an array of sensors. Two procedures for DOA estimation based neural networks are presented. First, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to extract the maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector from signal subspace to estimate DOA. Second, minor component analysis (MCA) is a statistical method of extracting the eigenvector associated with the smallest eigenvalue of the covariance matrix. In this paper, we will modify a Minor Component Analysis (MCA(R)) learning algorithm to enhance the convergence, where a convergence is essential for MCA algorithm towards practical applications. The learning rate parameter is also presented, which ensures fast convergence of the algorithm, because it has direct effect on the convergence of the weight vector and the error level is affected by this value. MCA is performed to determine the estimated DOA. Preliminary results will be furnished to illustrate the convergences results achieved.Keywords: Direction of Arrival, neural networks, Principle Component Analysis, Minor Component Analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 4522123 Sensor Fault-Tolerant Model Predictive Control for Linear Parameter Varying Systems
Authors: Yushuai Wang, Feng Xu, Junbo Tan, Xueqian Wang, Bin Liang
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In this paper, a sensor fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme using robust model predictive control (RMPC) and set theoretic fault detection and isolation (FDI) is extended to linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. First, a group of set-valued observers are designed for passive fault detection (FD) and the observer gains are obtained through minimizing the size of invariant set of state estimation-error dynamics. Second, an input set for fault isolation (FI) is designed offline through set theory for actively isolating faults after FD. Third, an RMPC controller based on state estimation for LPV systems is designed to control the system in the presence of disturbance and measurement noise and tolerate faults. Besides, an FTC algorithm is proposed to maintain the plant operate in the corresponding mode when the fault occurs. Finally, a numerical example is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.Keywords: fault detection, linear parameter varying, model predictive control, set theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 2552122 Airborne SAR Data Analysis for Impact of Doppler Centroid on Image Quality and Registration Accuracy
Authors: Chhabi Nigam, S. Ramakrishnan
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This paper brings out the analysis of the airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to study the impact of Doppler centroid on Image quality and geocoding accuracy from the perspective of Stripmap mode of data acquisition. Although in Stripmap mode of data acquisition radar beam points at 90 degrees broad side (side looking), shift in the Doppler centroid is invariable due to platform motion. In-accurate estimation of Doppler centroid leads to poor image quality and image miss-registration. The effect of Doppler centroid is analyzed in this paper using multiple sets of data collected from airborne platform. Occurrences of ghost (ambiguous) targets and their power levels have been analyzed that impacts appropriate choice of PRF. Effect of aircraft attitudes (roll, pitch and yaw) on the Doppler centroid is also analyzed with the collected data sets. Various stages of the RDA (Range Doppler Algorithm) algorithm used for image formation in Stripmap mode, range compression, Doppler centroid estimation, azimuth compression, range cell migration correction are analyzed to find the performance limits and the dependence of the imaging geometry on the final image. The ability of Doppler centroid estimation to enhance the imaging accuracy for registration are also illustrated in this paper. The paper also tries to bring out the processing of low squint SAR data, the challenges and the performance limits imposed by the imaging geometry and the platform dynamics on the final image quality metrics. Finally, the effect on various terrain types, including land, water and bright scatters is also presented.Keywords: ambiguous target, Doppler Centroid, image registration, Airborne SAR
Procedia PDF Downloads 2182121 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments
Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin
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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference
Procedia PDF Downloads 2072120 Chemometric Estimation of Phytochemicals Affecting the Antioxidant Potential of Lettuce
Authors: Milica Karadzic, Lidija Jevric, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanovic, Strahinja Kovacevic, Aleksandra Tepic-Horecki, Zdravko Sumic
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In this paper, the influence of six different phytochemical content (phenols, carotenoids, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, chlorophyll a + b and vitamin C) on antioxidant potential of Murai and Levistro lettuce varieties was evaluated. Variable selection was made by generalized pair correlation method (GPCM) as a novel ranking method. This method is used for the discrimination between two variables that almost equal correlate to a dependent variable. Fisher’s conditional exact and McNemar’s test were carried out. Established multiple linear (MLR) models were statistically evaluated. As the best phytochemicals for the antioxidant potential prediction, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll a + b and total carotenoids content stand out. This was confirmed through both GPCM and MLR, predictive ability of obtained MLR can be used for antioxidant potential estimation for similar lettuce samples. This article is based upon work from the project of the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina (No. 114-451-347/2015-02).Keywords: antioxidant activity, generalized pair correlation method, lettuce, regression analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3902119 Estimation of Fouling in a Cross-Flow Heat Exchanger Using Artificial Neural Network Approach
Authors: Rania Jradi, Christophe Marvillet, Mohamed Razak Jeday
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One of the most frequently encountered problems in industrial heat exchangers is fouling, which degrades the thermal and hydraulic performances of these types of equipment, leading thus to failure if undetected. And it occurs due to the accumulation of undesired material on the heat transfer surface. So, it is necessary to know about the heat exchanger fouling dynamics to plan mitigation strategies, ensuring a sustainable and safe operation. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to estimate the fouling resistance in a cross-flow heat exchanger by the collection of the operating data of the phosphoric acid concentration loop. The operating data of 361 was used to validate the proposed model. The ANN attains AARD= 0.048%, MSE= 1.811x10⁻¹¹, RMSE= 4.256x 10⁻⁶ and r²=99.5 % of accuracy which confirms that it is a credible and valuable approach for industrialists and technologists who are faced with the drawbacks of fouling in heat exchangers.Keywords: cross-flow heat exchanger, fouling, estimation, phosphoric acid concentration loop, artificial neural network approach
Procedia PDF Downloads 1992118 BER of the Leaky Feeder under Rayleigh Fading Multichannel Reception with Imperfect Phase Estimation
Authors: Hasan Farahneh, Xavier Fernando
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Leaky Feeder (LF) has been a proven technology for many decades and its promises broadband wireless access in short range but being overlooked until now. The LF is a natural MIMO transceiver ideal for micro and pico cells. In this work, the LF is considered as a linear antenna array MultiInput-Single-Output (MISO) and derive the average bit error rate (BER) in Rayleigh fading channel considering ideal and independent paths (iid) which consider there is no correlation and mutual coupling between transmit antennas (slots) or receiver antenna considering QPSK modulation with imperfect phase estimation. We consider maximal ratio transmission (MRT) at the transmit end and maximal ratio combining (MRC) at the receiving end. Analytical expressions are derived for the BER with radiating cable transmitters. The effects of slot spacing and carrier frequency on the BER are also studied. Numerical evaluations show the radiating cable transmitter offer much lower BER than a single antenna transmitter with same SNR.Keywords: leaky feeder, BER, QPSK, rayleigh fading, channel gain, phase mismatch
Procedia PDF Downloads 3842117 Process for Analyzing Information Security Risks Associated with the Incorporation of Online Dispute Resolution Systems in the Context of Conciliation in Colombia
Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez
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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2412116 Lateral-Torsional Buckling of Steel Girder Systems Braced by Solid Web Crossbeams
Authors: Ruoyang Tang, Jianguo Nie
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Lateral-torsional bracing members are critical to the stability of girder systems during the construction phase of steel-concrete composite bridges, and the interaction effect of multiple girders plays an essential role in the determination of buckling load. In this paper, an investigation is conducted on the lateral-torsional buckling behavior of the steel girder system which is composed of three or four I-shaped girders and braced by solid web crossbeams. The buckling load for such girder system is comprehensively analyzed and an analytical solution is developed for uniform pressure loading conditions. Furthermore, post-buckling analysis including initial geometric imperfections is performed and parametric studies in terms of bracing density, stiffness ratio as well as the number and spacing of girders are presented in order to find the optimal bracing plans for an arbitrary girder layout. The theoretical solution of critical load on account of local buckling mode shows good agreement with the numerical results in eigenvalue analysis. In addition, parametric analysis results show that both bracing density and stiffness ratio have a significant impact on the initial stiffness, global stability and failure mode of such girder system. Taking into consideration the effect of initial geometric imperfections, an increase in bracing density between adjacent girders can effectively improve the bearing capacity of the structure, and higher beam-girder stiffness ratio can result in a more ductile failure mode.Keywords: bracing member, construction stage, lateral-torsional buckling, steel girder system
Procedia PDF Downloads 1272115 A Game of Information in Defense/Attack Strategies: Case of Poisson Attacks
Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez
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In this paper, we briefly introduce the concept of Poisson attacks in the case of defense/attack strategies where attacks are assumed to be continuous. We suggest a game model in which the attacker will combine both criteria of a sufficient confidence level of a successful attack and a reasonably small size of the estimation error in order to launch an attack. Here, estimation error arises from assessing the system failure upon attack using aggregate data at the system level. The corresponding error is referred to as aggregation error. On the other hand, the defender will attempt to deter attack by making one or both criteria inapplicable. The defender will build his/her strategy by both strengthening the targeted system and increasing the size of error. We will formulate the defender problem based on appropriate optimization models. The attacker will opt for a Bayesian updating in assessing the impact on the improvement made by the defender. Then, the attacker will evaluate the feasibility of the attack before making the decision of whether or not to launch it. We will provide illustrations to better explain the process.Keywords: attacker, defender, game theory, information
Procedia PDF Downloads 4692114 Thermodynamics of Aqueous Solutions of Organic Molecule and Electrolyte: Use Cloud Point to Obtain Better Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters
Authors: Jyoti Sahu, Vinay A. Juvekar
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Electrolytes are often used to bring about salting-in and salting-out of organic molecules and polymers (e.g. polyethylene glycols/proteins) from the aqueous solutions. For quantification of these phenomena, a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict activity coefficient of electrolyte as a function of temperature is needed. The thermodynamics models available in the literature contain a large number of empirical parameters. These parameters are estimated using lower/upper critical solution temperature of the solution in the electrolyte/organic molecule at different temperatures. Since the number of parameters is large, inaccuracy can bethe creep in during their estimation, which can affect the reliability of prediction beyond the range in which these parameters are estimated. Cloud point of solution is related to its free energy through temperature and composition derivative. Hence, the Cloud point measurement can be used for accurate estimation of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters in the model for free energy. Hence, if we use a two pronged procedure in which we first use cloud point of solution to estimate some of the parameters of the thermodynamic model and determine the rest using osmotic coefficient data, we gain on two counts. First, since the parameters, estimated in each of the two steps, are fewer, we achieve higher accuracy of estimation. The second and more important gain is that the resulting model parameters are more sensitive to temperature. This is crucial when we wish to use the model outside temperatures window within which the parameter estimation is sought. The focus of the present work is to prove this proposition. We have used electrolyte (NaCl/Na2CO3)-water-organic molecule (Iso-propanol/ethanol) as the model system. The model of Robinson-Stokes-Glukauf is modified by incorporating the temperature dependent Flory-Huggins interaction parameters. The Helmholtz free energy expression contains, in addition to electrostatic and translational entropic contributions, three Flory-Huggins pairwise interaction contributions viz., and (w-water, p-polymer, s-salt). These parameters depend both on temperature and concentrations. The concentration dependence is expressed in the form of a quadratic expression involving the volume fractions of the interacting species. The temperature dependence is expressed in the form .To obtain the temperature-dependent interaction parameters for organic molecule-water and electrolyte-water systems, Critical solution temperature of electrolyte -water-organic molecules is measured using cloud point measuring apparatus The temperature and composition dependent interaction parameters for electrolyte-water-organic molecule are estimated through measurement of cloud point of solution. The model is used to estimate critical solution temperature (CST) of electrolyte water-organic molecules solution. We have experimentally determined the critical solution temperature of different compositions of electrolyte-water-organic molecule solution and compared the results with the estimates based on our model. The two sets of values show good agreement. On the other hand when only osmotic coefficients are used for estimation of the free energy model, CST predicted using the resulting model show poor agreement with the experiments. Thus, the importance of the CST data in the estimation of parameters of the thermodynamic model is confirmed through this work.Keywords: concentrated electrolytes, Debye-Hückel theory, interaction parameters, Robinson-Stokes-Glueckauf model, Flory-Huggins model, critical solution temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 3932113 Comparison of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Smoothing Methods
Authors: D. Sigirli
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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve
Procedia PDF Downloads 1522112 A Five-Year Follow-up Survey Using Regression Analysis Finds Only Maternal Age to Be a Significant Medical Predictor for Infertility Treatment
Authors: Lea Stein, Sabine Rösner, Alessandra Lo Giudice, Beate Ditzen, Tewes Wischmann
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For many couples bearing children is a consistent life goal; however, it cannot always be fulfilled. Undergoing infertility treatment does not guarantee pregnancies and live births. Couples have to deal with miscarriages and sometimes even discontinue infertility treatment. Significant medical predictors for the outcome of infertility treatment have yet to be fully identified. To further our understanding, a cross-sectional five-year follow-up survey was undertaken, in which 95 women and 82 men that have been treated at the Women’s Hospital of Heidelberg University participated. Binary logistic regressions, parametric and non-parametric methods were used for our sample to determine the relevance of biological (infertility diagnoses, maternal and paternal age) and lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking, over- and underweight) on the outcome of infertility treatment (clinical pregnancy, live birth, miscarriage, dropout rate). During infertility treatment, 72.6% of couples became pregnant and 69.5% were able to give birth. Suffering from miscarriages 27.5% of couples and 20.5% decided to discontinue an unsuccessful fertility treatment. The binary logistic regression models for clinical pregnancies, live births and dropouts were statistically significant for the maternal age, whereas the paternal age in addition to maternal and paternal BMI, smoking, infertility diagnoses and infections, showed no significant predicting effect on any of the outcome variables. The results confirm an effect of maternal age on infertility treatment, whereas the relevance of other medical predictors remains unclear. Further investigations should be considered to increase our knowledge of medical predictors.Keywords: advanced maternal age, assisted reproductive technology, female factor, male factor, medical predictors, infertility treatment, reproductive medicine
Procedia PDF Downloads 1122111 Performance Evaluation of a Minimum Mean Square Error-Based Physical Sidelink Share Channel Receiver under Fading Channel
Authors: Yang Fu, Jaime Rodrigo Navarro, Jose F. Monserrat, Faiza Bouchmal, Oscar Carrasco Quilis
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Cellular Vehicle to Everything (C-V2X) is considered a promising solution for future autonomous driving. From Release 16 to Release 17, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) has introduced the definitions and services for 5G New Radio (NR) V2X. Experience from previous generations has shown that establishing a simulator for C-V2X communications is an essential preliminary step to achieve reliable and stable communication links. This paper proposes a complete framework of a link-level simulator based on the 3GPP specifications for the Physical Sidelink Share Channel (PSSCH) of the 5G NR Physical Layer (PHY). In this framework, several algorithms in the receiver part, i.e., sliding window in channel estimation and Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE)-based equalization, are developed. Finally, the performance of the developed PSSCH receiver is validated through extensive simulations under different assumptions.Keywords: C-V2X, channel estimation, link-level simulator, sidelink, 3GPP
Procedia PDF Downloads 1332110 Household's Willingness to Pay for Safe Non-Timber Forest Products at Morikouali-Ye Community Forest in Cameroon
Authors: Eke Balla Sophie Michelle
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Forest provides a wide range of environmental goods and services among which, biodiversity or consumption goods and constitute public goods. Despite the importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in sustaining livelihood and poverty smoothening in rural communities, they are highly depleted and poorly conserved. Yokadouma is a town where NTFPs is a renewable resource in active exploitation. It has been found that such exploitation is done in the same conditions as other localities that have experienced a rapid depletion of their NTFPs in destination to cities across Cameroon, Central Africa, and overseas. Given these realities, it is necessary to access the consequences of this overexploitation through negative effects on both the population and the environment. Therefore, to enhance participatory conservation initiatives, this study determines the household’s willingness to pay in community forest (CF) of Morikouali-ye, eastern region of Cameroon, for sustainable exploitation of NTFPs using contingent valuation method (CVM) through two approaches, one parametric (Logit model) and the other non-parametric (estimator of the Turnbull lower bound). The results indicate that five species are the most collected in the study area: Irvingia gabonensis, the Ricinodendron heudelotii, Gnetum, the Jujube and bark, their sale contributes significantly to 41 % of total household income. The average willingness to pay through the Logit model and the Turnbull estimator is 6845.2861 FCFA and 4940 FCFA respectively per household per year with a social cost of degradation estimated at 3237820.3253 FCFA years. The probability to pay increases with income, gender, number of women in the household, age, the commercial activity of NTFPs and decreases with the concept of sustainable development.Keywords: non timber forest product, contingent valuation method, willingness to pay, sustainable development
Procedia PDF Downloads 4512109 R Software for Parameter Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Model
Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan
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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software
Procedia PDF Downloads 2432108 Hybrid Deep Learning and FAST-BRISK 3D Object Detection Technique for Bin-Picking Application
Authors: Thanakrit Taweesoontorn, Sarucha Yanyong, Poom Konghuayrob
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Robotic arms have gained popularity in various industries due to their accuracy and efficiency. This research proposes a method for bin-picking tasks using the Cobot, combining the YOLOv5 CNNs model for object detection and pose estimation with traditional feature detection (FAST), feature description (BRISK), and matching algorithms. By integrating these algorithms and utilizing a small-scale depth sensor camera for capturing depth and color images, the system achieves real-time object detection and accurate pose estimation, enabling the robotic arm to pick objects correctly in both position and orientation. Furthermore, the proposed method is implemented within the ROS framework to provide a seamless platform for robotic control and integration. This integration of robotics, cameras, and AI technology contributes to the development of industrial robotics, opening up new possibilities for automating challenging tasks and improving overall operational efficiency.Keywords: robotic vision, image processing, applications of robotics, artificial intelligent
Procedia PDF Downloads 972107 Estimation of the Temperatures in an Asynchronous Machine Using Extended Kalman Filter
Authors: Yi Huang, Clemens Guehmann
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In order to monitor the thermal behavior of an asynchronous machine with squirrel cage rotor, a 9th-order extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm is implemented to estimate the temperatures of the stator windings, the rotor cage and the stator core. The state-space equations of EKF are established based on the electrical, mechanical and the simplified thermal models of an asynchronous machine. The asynchronous machine with simplified thermal model in Dymola is compiled as DymolaBlock, a physical model in MATLAB/Simulink. The coolant air temperature, three-phase voltages and currents are exported from the physical model and are processed by EKF estimator as inputs. Compared to the temperatures exported from the physical model of the machine, three parts of temperatures can be estimated quite accurately by the EKF estimator. The online EKF estimator is independent from the machine control algorithm and can work under any speed and load condition if the stator current is nonzero current system.Keywords: asynchronous machine, extended Kalman filter, resistance, simulation, temperature estimation, thermal model
Procedia PDF Downloads 2852106 Comparison Approach for Wind Resource Assessment to Determine Most Precise Approach
Authors: Tasir Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad, Yejuan Wang, Muhammad Salam
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Distribution models of the wind speed data are essential to assess the potential wind speed energy because it decreases the uncertainty to estimate wind energy output. Therefore, before performing a detailed potential energy analysis, the precise distribution model for data relating to wind speed must be found. In this research, material from numerous criteria goodness-of-fits, such as Kolmogorov Simonov, Anderson Darling statistics, Chi-Square, root mean square error (RMSE), AIC and BIC were combined finally to determine the wind speed of the best-fitted distribution. The suggested method collectively makes each criterion. This method was useful in a circumstance to fitting 14 distribution models statistically with the data of wind speed together at four sites in Pakistan. The consequences show that this method provides the best source for selecting the most suitable wind speed statistical distribution. Also, the graphical representation is consistent with the analytical results. This research presents three estimation methods that can be used to calculate the different distributions used to estimate the wind. In the suggested MLM, MOM, and MLE the third-order moment used in the wind energy formula is a key function because it makes an important contribution to the precise estimate of wind energy. In order to prove the presence of the suggested MOM, it was compared with well-known estimation methods, such as the method of linear moment, and maximum likelihood estimate. In the relative analysis, given to several goodness-of-fit, the presentation of the considered techniques is estimated on the actual wind speed evaluated in different time periods. The results obtained show that MOM certainly provides a more precise estimation than other familiar approaches in terms of estimating wind energy based on the fourteen distributions. Therefore, MOM can be used as a better technique for assessing wind energy.Keywords: wind-speed modeling, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood method, linear moment
Procedia PDF Downloads 852105 Estimation of Uncertainty of Thermal Conductivity Measurement with Single Laboratory Validation Approach
Authors: Saowaluck Ukrisdawithid
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The thermal conductivity of thermal insulation materials are measured by Heat Flow Meter (HFM) apparatus. The components of uncertainty are complex and difficult on routine measurement by modelling approach. In this study, uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement was estimated by single laboratory validation approach. The within-laboratory reproducibility was 1.1%. The standard uncertainty of method and laboratory bias by using SRM1453 expanded polystyrene board was dominant at 1.4%. However, it was assessed that there was no significant bias. For sample measurement, the sources of uncertainty were repeatability, density of sample and thermal conductivity resolution of HFM. From this approach to sample measurements, the combined uncertainty was calculated. In summary, the thermal conductivity of sample, polystyrene foam, was reported as 0.03367 W/m·K ± 3.5% (k = 2) at mean temperature 23.5 °C. The single laboratory validation approach is simple key of routine testing laboratory for estimation uncertainty of thermal conductivity measurement by using HFM, according to ISO/IEC 17025-2017 requirements. These are meaningful for laboratory competent improvement, quality control on products, and conformity assessment.Keywords: single laboratory validation approach, within-laboratory reproducibility, method and laboratory bias, certified reference material
Procedia PDF Downloads 1552104 The Impact of Bim Technology on the Whole Process Cost Management of Civil Engineering Projects in Kenya
Authors: Nsimbe Allan
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The study examines the impact of Building Information Modeling (BIM) on the cost management of engineering projects, focusing specifically on the Mombasa Port Area Development Project. The objective of this research venture is to determine the mechanisms through which Building Information Modeling (BIM) facilitates stakeholder collaboration, reduces construction-related expenses, and enhances the precision of cost estimation. Furthermore, the study investigates barriers to execution, assesses the impact on the project's transparency, and suggests approaches to maximize resource utilization. The study, selected for its practical significance and intricate nature, conducted a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) using credible databases, including ScienceDirect and IEEE Xplore. To constitute the diverse sample, 69 individuals, including project managers, cost estimators, and BIM administrators, were selected via stratified random sampling. The data were obtained using a mixed-methods approach, which prioritized ethical considerations. SPSS and Microsoft Excel were applied to the analysis. The research emphasizes the crucial role that project managers, architects, and engineers play in the decision-making process (47% of respondents). Furthermore, a significant improvement in cost estimation accuracy was reported by 70% of the participants. It was found that the implementation of BIM resulted in enhanced project visibility, which in turn optimized resource allocation and facilitated the process of budgeting. In brief, the study highlights the positive impacts of Building Information Modeling (BIM) on collaborative decision-making and cost estimation, addresses challenges related to implementation, and provides solutions for the efficient assimilation and understanding of BIM principles.Keywords: cost management, resource utilization, stakeholder collaboration, project transparency
Procedia PDF Downloads 692103 Estimation of Gaseous Pollutants at Kalyanpur, Dhaka City
Authors: Farhana Tarannum
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Ambient (outdoor) air pollution is now recognized as an important problem, both nationally and worldwide. The concentrations of gaseous pollutants (SOx, NOx, CO and O3) have been determined from samples collected at Kallyanpur along Shamoli corridor in Dhaka city. Pollutants were determined in a sample collected at ground level and a roof of a 7-storied building. These pollutants are emitted largely from stationary sources like fossil fuel fired power plants, industrial plants, and manufacturing facilities as well as mobile sources. The incomplete combustion of fuel, wood and the Sulphur containing fuel used in the vehicles are one of the main causes of CO and SOx respectively in our natural environment. When the temperature of combustion in high enough and some of that nitrogen reacts with oxygen in the air, various nitrogen oxides (NOx) are then formed. The VOCs react with NOx in the presence of sunlight to form O3. UV Visible spectrophotometric method has been used for the determination of SOx, NOx and O3. The sensor type device was used for the estimation of CO. It was found that the air pollutants (CO, SOx, NOx and O3) of a sample collected at the roof of a building were lower compared to the ground level; it indicated that ground level people are mostly affected by the gaseous pollutants.Keywords: gaseous pollutants, UV-visible spectrophotometry, ambient air quality, Dhaka city
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