Search results for: earthquake risk

Authors: Rapelang E. Simon, Thebeetsile A. Olebetse, Joseph R. Maritinkole, Ruth O. Moleleke

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The P and S wave seismic velocity ratios (Vp/Vs) of some aftershocks are investigated using the method ofWadati diagrams. These aftershocks occurred after the 3rdApril 2017 Botswana’s Mw 6.5 earthquake and were recorded by the Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs (NARS)-Botswana temporary network deployed from 2013 to 2018. In this paper, P and S wave data with good signal-to-noise ratiofrom twenty events of local magnitude greater or equal to 4.0are analysed with the Seisan software and used to infer properties of the upper crust in Botswana. The Vp/Vsratiosare determined from the travel-times of body waves and then converted to Poisson’s ratio, which is useful in determining the physical state of the subsurface materials. The Vp/Vs ratios of the upper crust in Botswana show regional variations from 1.70 to 1.77, with an average of 1.73. The Poisson’s ratios range from 0.24to 0.27 with an average of 0.25 and correlate well with the geological structures in Botswana.

Keywords: Botswana, earthquake, poisson's ratio, seismic velocity, Vp/Vs ratio

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Authors: A. E. Kurtoglu, A. Cevik, M. Bilgehan

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In this parametric study, effect of soil and material characteristics on safety of structures is investigated. The soil parameters such as shear strength, unit weight; geometrical parameters of the structure such as foundation depth and height of building; and material properties such as weight of concrete were selected as input parameters. A real accelerogram of 1989 El-Centro earthquake recorded by the USGS in Imperial Valley is used for this study. It is contained in the standard Strong Motion CD-ROM (SMC) format, which can be recognized and interpreted by FEM software used. The soil-structure interaction model subjected to above-mentioned earthquake was analyzed for 729 cases. Effect of input parameters on safety factor of the soil-structure system was then investigated and the interaction between the input and output parameters is presented in graphical form. Findings showed that all input parameters have significant effects on factor of safety results.

Keywords: factor of safety, finite element method, safety of structures, soil structure interaction

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono

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Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.

Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability

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Authors: Peyman Amini Motlagh, Ali Pak

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Seismic retrofitting of important structures is essential in seismological active zones. The importance is doubled when it comes to some buildings like schools, hospitals, bridges etc. because they are required to continue their serviceability even after a major earthquake. Generally, seismic retrofitting codes have paid little attention to retrofitting of foundations due to its construction complexity. In this paper different methods for seismic retrofitting of tall buildings’ foundations will be discussed and evaluated. Foundations are considered in three different categories. First, foundations those are in danger of liquefaction of their underlying soil. Second, foundations located on slopes in seismological active regions. Third, foundations designed according to former design codes and may show structural defects under earthquake loads. After describing different methods used in different countries for retrofitting of the existing foundations in seismological active regions, comprehensive comparison between these methods with regard to the above mentioned categories is carried out. This paper gives some guidelines to choose the best method for seismic retrofitting of tall buildings’ foundations in retrofitting projects.

Keywords: existing foundation, landslide, liquefaction, seismic retrofitting

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Lounis Ziani, Lounis Hamitouche

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In this paper, we study a complex structure which is an apartment building surmounted by a reinforced concrete water tank. The tank located on the top floor of the building is a container with capacity of 1000 m³. The building is complex in its design, its calculation and by its behavior under earthquake effect. This structure located in Algiers and aged of 53 years has been subjected to several earthquakes, but the earthquake of May 21^st, 2003 with a magnitude of 6.7 on the Richter scale that struck Boumerdes region at 40 Kms East of Algiers was fatal for it. It was downgraded after an investigation study because the central core sustained serious damage. In this paper, to estimate the degree of its damages, the seismic performance of the structure will be evaluated taking into account the hydrodynamic effect, using a static equivalent nonlinear analysis called pushover.

Keywords: performance analysis, building, reinforced concrete tank, seismic analysis, nonlinear analysis, hydrodynamic, pushover

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Authors: Ehsan Sadie

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Despite the experience of heavy losses and damages of recent earthquakes such as 8 km E of Pāhala, Hawaii, 11 km W of Salvaleón de Higüey, Dominican Republic and 49 km SSE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic earthquakes, the possibility of large earthquakes in most populated areas of any country and the serious need for quality control in the design and implementation of buildings, not enough attention has been paid to the proper construction. Steel structures constitute a significant part of construction in any metropolitan area. This article gives a brief overview of the implementation status of these buildings in urban areas and considers the weaknesses of performance that typically occur due to negligence or insufficient mastery of the building supervisor in the principles of operation of earthquake-resistant buildings, and provides appropriate and possible solutions to improve the construction.

Keywords: bracing member, concentrated load, diaphragm system, earthquake engineering, load-bearing system, shear force, seismic retrofitting, steel building, strip foundation, supervising engineer, vulnerability of building

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: M. Dagim Yoseph, M. K. Savage, A. D. Jolly, C. J. Ebinger

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Whakaari/White Island has been the most active New Zealand volcano in the 21st century, producing small phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions, which are hard to predict. The most recent eruption occurred in 2019, tragically claiming the lives of 22 individuals and causing numerous injuries. We employed shear-wave splitting analyses to investigate variations in anisotropy between 2018 and 2020, during quiescence, unrest, and the eruption. We examined spatial and temporal variations in 3499 shear-wave splitting and 2656 V_p/V_s ratio measurements. Comparing shear-wave splitting parameters from similar earthquake paths across different times indicates that the observed temporal changes are unlikely to result from variations in earthquake paths through media with spatial variability. Instead, these changes may stem from variations in anisotropy over time, likely caused by changes in crack alignment due to stress or varying fluid content.

Keywords: background seismic waves, fast orientations, seismic anisotropy, V_p/V_s ratio

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Authors: Hongmeng Su, Luyu Zhao, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors that endanger human health seriously. RNA methylation, especially N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) and 5-methylcytosine (m⁵C), a crucial epigenetic transcriptional regulatory mechanism, plays an important role in tumorigenesis, progression and prognosis. This research aims to systematically evaluate the prognostic value of m⁶A and m⁵C modulators in HCC patients. Methods: Twenty-four modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C were candidates to analyze their expression level and their contribution to predict the prognosis of HCC. Consensus clustering analysis was applied to classify HCC patients. Cox and LASSO regression were used to construct the risk model. According to the risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low/medium-risk groups. The clinical pathology factors of HCC patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: The HCC patients were classified into 2 clusters with significant differences in overall survival and clinical characteristics. Nine-gene risk model was constructed including METTL3, VIRMA, YTHDF1, YTHDF2, NOP2, NSUN4, NSUN5, DNMT3A and ALYREF. It was indicated that the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for patients with HCC. Conclusion: This study constructed a Nine-gene risk model by modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C and investigated its effect on the clinical prognosis of HCC. This model may provide important consideration for the therapeutic strategy and prognosis evaluation analysis of patients with HCC.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, m⁶A, m⁵C, prognosis, RNA methylation

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Vijay S. Katta, Vinod Kushwah, Rudraksh Tiwari, Mulayam Singh Gaur, Priti Dimri, Ashok Kumar Sharma

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The formation process of seismic activities because of abrupt slip on faults, tectonic plate moments due to accumulated stress in the Earth’s crust. The prediction of seismic activity is a very challenging task. We have studied the changes in surface latent heat temperatures which are observed prior to significant earthquakes have been investigated and could be considered for short term earthquake prediction. We analyzed the surface latent heat temperature (SLHT) variation for inland earthquakes occurred in Chamba, Himachal Pradesh (32.5 N, 76.1E, M-4.5, depth-5km) nearby the main boundary fault region, the data of SLHT have been taken from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In this analysis, we have calculated daily variations with surface latent heat temperature (0C) in the range area 1⁰x1⁰ (~120/KM²) with the pixel covering epicenter of earthquake at the center for a three months period prior to and after the seismic activities. The mean value during that period has been considered in order to take account of the seasonal effect. The monthly mean has been subtracted from daily value to study anomalous behavior (∆SLHT) of SLHT during the earthquakes. The results found that the SLHTs adjacent the epicenters all are anomalous high value 3-5 days before the seismic activities. The abundant surface water and groundwater in the epicenter and its adjacent region can provide the necessary condition for the change of SLHT. To further confirm the reliability of SLHT anomaly, it is necessary to explore its physical mechanism in depth by more earthquakes cases.

Keywords: surface latent heat temperature, satellite data, earthquake, magnetic storm

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Authors: Neritan Shkodrani

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On November 26, 2019, an earthquake hit the central western part of Albania. It was assessed as Mw 6.4. Its epicenter was located offshore north western Durrës, about 7 km north of the city. In this paper, the consequences of settlements of very soft soils have been discussed for the case of a residential building, mentioned as “K Building”, which was suffering a significant tilting after the earthquake. “KBuilding” is an RC framed building having 12+1 (basement) storiesand a floor area of 21000 m2. The construction of the building was completed in 2012. “KBuilding”, located in Durres city, suffered severe non-structural damage during November 26, 2019, Durrës Earthquake sequences. During the in-site inspections immediately after the earthquake, the general condition of the buildings, the presence of observable settlements on the ground, and the crack situation in the structure were determined, and damage inspection were performed. It was significant to note that the “K Building” presented tilting that might be attributed, as it was believed at the beginning, partially to the failure of the columns of the ground floor and partially to liquefaction phenomena, but it did not collapse. At the first moment was not clear if the foundation had a bearing capacity failure or the foundation failed because of the soil liquefaction. Geotechnical soil investigations by using CPTU test were executed, and their data are usedto evaluatebearing capacity, consolidation settlement of the mat foundation, and soil liquefaction since they were believed to be the main reasons of this building tilting.Geotechnical soil investigation consist in 5 (five) Static Cone Penetration tests with pore pressure measurement (piezocone test). They reached a penetration depth of 20.0 m to 30.0 mand, clearly shown the presence of very soft and organic soils in the soil profile of the site. Geotechnical CPT based analysis of bearing capacity, consolidation, and secondary settlement are applied, and results are reported for each test. These results shown very small values of allowable bearing capacity and very high values of consolidation and secondary settlements. Liquefaction analysis based on the data of CPTU tests and the characteristics of ground shaking of the mentioned earthquake has shown the possibility of liquefaction for some layers of the considered soil profile, but the estimated vertical settlements are at a small range and clearly shown that the main reason of the building tilting was not related to the consequences of liquefaction, but was an existing settlement caused from the applied bearing pressure of this building. All the CPTU tests were carried out on August 2021, almost two years after the November 26, 2019, Durrës Earthquake and when the building itself was demolished. After removing the mat foundation on September 2021, it was possible to carry out CPTU tests even on the footprint of the existing building, which made possible to observe the effects of long time applied of foundation bearing pressure to the consolidation on the considered soil profile.

Keywords: bearing capacity, cone penetration test, consolidation settlement, secondary settlement, soil liquefaction, etc

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

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To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Abdessalem Abbassi, Ahlem Dakhlaoui, Lota D. Tamini

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This article analyses management of hydropower dams within two different industrial structures: monopolistic and oligopolistic; when hydroelectricity producers are risk averse and face demand uncertainty. In each type of market structure we determine the water release path in closed-loop equilibrium. We show how a monopoly can manage its hydropower dams by additional pumping or storage depending on the relative abundance of water between different regions to smooth the effect of uncertainty on electricity prices. In the oligopolistic case with symmetric rates of risk aversion, we determine the conditions under which the relative scarcity (abundance) of water in the dam of a hydroelectric operator can favor additional strategic pumping (storage) in its competitor’s dams. When there is asymmetry of the risk aversion coefficient, the firm’s hydroelectricity production increases as its competitor’s risk aversion increases, if and only if the average recharge speed of the competitor’s dam exceeds a certain threshold, which is an increasing function of its average water inflows.

Keywords: asymmetric risk aversion, closed-loop Cournot competition, electricity wholesale market, hydropower dams

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Authors: Umberto Cerasani, Luca Cerasani

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Methods for earthquakes forecasting have been intensively investigated in the last decades, but there is still no universal solution agreed by seismologists. Rock failure is most often preceded by a tiny elastic movement in the failure area and by the appearance of micro-cracks. These micro-cracks could be detected at the soil surface and represent useful earth-quakes precursors. The aim of this study was to verify whether tiny raw acceleration signals (in the 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ cm/s² range) prior to the arrival of main primary-waves could be exploitable and related to earthquakes magnitude. Mathematical tools such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), moving average and wavelets have been applied on raw acceleration data available on the ITACA web site, and the study focused on one of the most unpredictable earth-quakes, i.e., the August 24th, 2016 at 01H36 one that occurred in the central Italy area. It appeared that these tiny acceleration signals preceding main P-waves have different patterns both on frequency and time domains for high magnitude earthquakes compared to lower ones.

Keywords: earthquake, accelerometer, earthquake forecasting, seism

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Authors: Hailemikael Negussie, Sebla Arın Ensarioğlu

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In February 2023 Southeastern Türkiye and Northwestern Syria were hit by two consecutive earthquakes with high magnitude leaving thousands dead and thousands more homeless. The housing crisis in the affected areas has resulted in the need for a fast and qualified solution. There are a number of solutions, one of which is the use of modular designs to rebuild the cities that have been affected. Modular designs are prefabricated building components that can be quickly and efficiently assembled on-site, making them ideal to build structures with faster speed and higher quality. These structures are flexible, adaptable, and can be customized to meet the specific needs of the inhabitants, in addition to being more energy-efficient and sustainable. The prefabricated nature also assures that the quality of the products can be easily controlled. The reason for the collapse of most of the buildings during the earthquakes was found out to be the lack of quality during the construction stage. Using modular designs allows a higher control over the quality of the construction materials being used. The use of modular designs for a project of this scale presents some challenges, including the high upfront cost to design and manufacture components. However, if implemented correctly, modular designs can offer an effective and efficient solution to the urgent housing needs. The aim of this paper is to explore the potential of modular housing for mid- and long-term earthquake-resistant housing needs in the affected disaster zones after the earthquakes of February 2023. In the scope of this paper the adaptability of modular, prefabricated housing designs for the post-disaster environment, the advantages and disadvantages of this system will be examined. Elements such as; the current conditions of the region where the destruction happened, climatic data, topographic factors will be examined. Additionally, the paper will examine; examples of similar local and international modular post-earthquake housing projects. The region is projected to enter a rapid reconstruction phase in the following periods. Therefore, this paper will present a proposal for a system that can be used to produce safe and healthy urbanization policies without causing new aggrievements while meeting the housing needs of the people in the affected regions.

Keywords: post-disaster housing, earthquake-resistant design, modular design, housing, Türkiye

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

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Authors: Nomin-Erdene Erdenetsogt, Tseedulam Khuut, Batsaikhan Tserenpil, Bayarsaikhan Enkhee

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As the framework of 60 years of development of Astronomical and Geophysical science in modern Mongolia, various geophysical methods (electrical tomography, ground-penetrating radar, and high-resolution reflection seismic profiles) were used to image an active fault in-depth range between few decimeters to few tens meters. An active fault was fractured by an earthquake magnitude 7.6 during 1967. After geophysical investigations, trench excavations were done at the sites to expose the fault surfaces. The complex geophysical survey in the Mogod fault, Bulgan region of central Mongolia shows an interpretable reflection arrivals range of < 5 m to 50 m with the potential for increased resolution. Reflection profiles were used to help interpret the significance of neotectonic surface deformation at earthquake active fault. The interpreted profiles show a range of shallow fault structures and provide subsurface evidence with support of paleoseismologic trenching photos, electrical surveys.

Keywords: Mogod fault, geophysics, seismic processing, seismic reflection survey

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Authors: Li Xu, Yang Hong, T. Zhao Wen

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Experimental results of many RC beam-column subassemblage indicate that slippage of longitudinal beam rebar within the joint and the shear deformation of joint core have significant influence on seismic behavior of the subassemblage. However, rigid joint assumption has been generally used in the seismic response analysis of RC frames, in which two kinds of inelastic deformation of joint have been ignored. Based on OpenSees platform, ‘Super Joint Element Model’ with more detailed inelastic mechanism is used to simulate the inelastic response of joints. Two finite element models of typical RC plane frame, namely considering or ignoring the inelastic deformation of joint respectively, were established and analyzed under seven strong earthquake waves. The simulated global and local inelastic deformations of the RC plane frame is shown and discussed. The analyses also confirm the security of the earthquake-resistant frame designed according to Chinese codes.

Keywords: frame structure, beam-column joint, longitudinal bar slippage, shear deformation, nonlinear analysis

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Authors: Masuma Novak, Daniel Novak

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Background: Sweden along with other Nordic countries has the highest incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) worldwide. The trend is increasing globally. The diagnosis is often given at the emergency clinic when children arrive with cardinal symptom of T1DM. Children with T1DM are known to have an increased risk of microvascular- and macrovascular complications. A family history of cardiovascular complications may further increase their risk. Clinically evident diabetes-related vascular complications are however rarely visible in childhood and adolescence, whereby an intensive diabetes treatment and normoglycemic control is a goal for every child. This study is a risk evaluation of children with T1DM based on their family’s cardiovascular history. Method: Since 2005 the Better Diabetes Diagnosis (BDD) study is a nationwide Swedish prospective cohort study that recruits new-onset T1DM who are less than 18 years old at time of diagnosis. For each newly diagnosed child, blood samples are collected for specific HLA genotyping and islet autoantibody assays and their family’s cardiovascular history is evaluated. As part of the BDD study, during the years 2010-2013 all children diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital in Sweden were asked about their family’s cardiovascular history. Questions regarded maternal and paternal high blood pressure, stroke, and myocardial infarction before the age of 55 years, and hyperlipidemia were answered. A maximum risk score of eight was possible. All children are clinically observed prospectively for early functional and structural abnormalities such as protein uremia, blood pressure, and retinopathy. Results: A total of 275 children aged 0 to 18 years were diagnosed with T1DM at the Queen Silvia’s Children’s Hospital emergency clinic during this four year period. The participation rate was 99.7%. 26.4% of the children had no hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. 22.7 % had one risk factor and 18.8% had two risk factors. 14.8% had three risk factors. 9.7% had four risk factors and 7.5% had five risk factors or more. Conclusion: Among children with T1DM in Sweden there is a difference in hereditary cardiovascular risk factors. These results indicate that children with T1DM who also have increased hereditary cardiovascular risk factors should be monitored closely with early screening for functional and structural cardiovascular abnormalities. This is a very preliminary and ongoing study which will be complemented with the cardiovascular risk analysis among children without T1DM.

Keywords: children, type I diabetes, emergency clinic, CVD risk

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Authors: Najmeh Ayoqi, Emanuele Marchetti

Abstract:

OpenSWPC was used to model 2D and 3D seismic waveforms produced by various earthquakes in the Firenze metropolitan area. OpenSWPC is an Opens source code for simulation of seismic wave by using the finite difference method (FDM) in Message Passing Interface (MPI) environment. it considered both earthquake sources, with variable magnitude and location, as well as a pulse source in the modeling domain, which is optimal to simulate local seismic amplification effects. Multiple tests were performed to evaluate the dependence of the frequency content of output modeled waveforms on the model grid size and time steps . Moreover the effect of the velocity structure and absorbing boundary condition on waveform features (amplitude, duration and frequency content) where analysed. Eventually model results are compared with real waveform and Horizontal-to-Vertical spectral Ratio (HVSR) , showing that seismic wave modeling can provide important information on seismic assessment in the city.

Keywords: openSWPC, earthquake, firenze, HVSR, seismic wave

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

Abstract:

Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

Abstract:

Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Jin Woo Hwang, Byung Kwan Oh, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

As greenhouse effect has been recognized as serious environmental problem of the world, interests in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission which comprises major part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been increased recently. Since construction industry takes a relatively large portion of total CO₂ emissions of the world, extensive studies about reducing CO₂ emissions in construction and operation of building have been carried out after the 2000s. Also, performance based design (PBD) methodology based on nonlinear analysis has been robustly developed after Northridge Earthquake in 1994 to assure and assess seismic performance of building more exactly because structural engineers recognized that prescriptive code based design approach cannot address inelastic earthquake responses directly and assure performance of building exactly. Although CO₂ emissions and PBD approach are recent rising issues on construction industry and structural engineering, there were few or no researches considering these two issues simultaneously. Thus, the objective of this study is to minimize the CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach in structural design stage considering structural materials. 4 story and 4 span reinforced concrete building optimally designed to minimize CO₂ emissions and cost of building and to satisfy specific seismic performance (collapse prevention in maximum considered earthquake) of building satisfying prescriptive code regulations using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Optimized design result showed that minimized CO₂ emissions and cost of building were acquired satisfying specific seismic performance. Therefore, the methodology proposed in this paper can be used to reduce both CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, performance based design, optimization, sustainable design

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Milorad Pavlovic, Anna Manzato, Antonella Cecchi

Abstract:

Cultural heritage conservation is a challenge for contemporary society. In recent decades, significant resources have been allocated for the conservation and restoration of architectural heritage. Historical buildings were restored, protected and reinforced with the intent to limit the risks of degradation or loss, due to phenomena of structural damage and to external factors such as differential settlements, earthquake effects, etc. The wide diffusion of historic masonry constructions in Italy, Europe and the Mediterranean area requires reliable tools for the evaluation of their structural safety. In this paper is presented a free modal analysis performed on a minor historical architecture located in the village of Bagno Grande, near the city of L’Aquila in Italy. The location is characterized by a complex urban context, seriously damaged by the earthquake of 2009. The aim of this work is to check the structural behavior of a masonry building characterized by several boundary conditions imposed by adjacent buildings and infrastructural facilities.

Keywords: FEM, masonry, minor historical architecture, modal analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 318