Search results for: virtual purchase decision

Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

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The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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Authors: Corentin Jankowiak, Aggelos Zacharopoulos, Caterina Brandoni

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In a context of increasing stress put on the electricity network by the decarbonization of many sectors, energy storage is likely to be the key mitigating element, by acting as a buffer between production and demand. In particular, the highest potential for storage is when connected closer to the loads. Yet, low voltage storage struggles to penetrate the market at a large scale due to the novelty and complexity of the solution, and the competitive advantage of fossil fuel-based technologies regarding regulations. Strong and reliable numerical simulations are required to show the benefits of storage located near loads and promote its development. The present study was restrained from excluding aggregated control of storage: it is assumed that the storage units operate independently to one another without exchanging information – as is currently mostly the case. A computationally light battery model is presented in detail and validated by direct comparison with a domestic battery operating in real conditions. This model is then used to develop Peak-Shaving (PS) control strategies as it is the decentralized service from which beneficial impacts are most likely to emerge. The aggregation of flatter, peak- shaved consumption profiles is likely to lead to flatter and arbitraged profile at higher voltage layers. Furthermore, voltage fluctuations can be expected to decrease if spikes of individual consumption are reduced. The crucial part to achieve PS lies in the charging pattern: peaks depend on the switching on and off of appliances in the dwelling by the occupants and are therefore impossible to predict accurately. A performant PS strategy must, therefore, include a smart charge recovery algorithm that can ensure enough energy is present in the battery in case it is needed without generating new peaks by charging the unit. Three categories of PS algorithms are introduced in detail. First, using a constant threshold or power rate for charge recovery, followed by algorithms using the State Of Charge (SOC) as a decision variable. Finally, using a load forecast – of which the impact of the accuracy is discussed – to generate PS. A performance metrics was defined in order to quantitatively evaluate their operating regarding peak reduction, total energy consumption, and self-consumption of domestic photovoltaic generation. The algorithms were tested on load profiles with a 1-minute granularity over a 1-year period, and their performance was assessed regarding these metrics. The results show that constant charging threshold or power are far from optimal: a certain value is not likely to fit the variability of a residential profile. As could be expected, forecast-based algorithms show the highest performance. However, these depend on the accuracy of the forecast. On the other hand, SOC based algorithms also present satisfying performance, making them a strong alternative when the reliable forecast is not available.

Keywords: decentralised control, domestic integrated batteries, electricity network performance, peak-shaving algorithm

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Authors: Nicola Milani, Carla Bellissimo, Davide Pogliana, Davide Panzin, Luca Garlaschelli, Giulia Facchinetti, Claudia Casson, Luca Marazzina, Andrea Sartori, Simone Rivaroli, Jeff Konin

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The patient is a 26 year-old male amateur football player from Milan, Italy; (81kg; 185cm; BMI 23.6 kg/m²). He sustained a non-contact anterior cruciate ligament tear to his right knee in June 2021. In September 2021, his right knee ligament was reconstructed using a semitendinosus graft. The injury occurred during a football match on natural grass with typical shoes on a warm day (32 degrees celsius). Playing as a defender he sustained the injury during a change of direction, where the foot was fixated on the grass. He felt pain and was unable to continue playing the match. The surgeon approved his rehabilitation to begin two weeks post-operative. The initial physiotherapist assessment determined performing two training sessions per day within the first three months. In the first three weeks, the pain was 4/10 on Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), no swelling, a range of motion was 0-110°, with difficulty fully extending his knee and minimal quadriceps activation. Crutches were discontinued at four weeks with improved walking. Active exercise, electrostimulator, physical therapy, massages, osteopathy, and passive motion were initiated. At week 6, he completed his first functional movement screen; the score was 16/21 with no pain and no swelling. At week 8, the isokinetic test showed a 23% differential deficit between the two legs in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 10, he improved to 15% of injury-induced deficit which suggested he was ready to start running. At week 12, the athlete sustained his first threshold test. At week 16, he performed his first return to sports movement assessment, which revealed a 10% stronger difference between the legs. At week 16, he had his second threshold test. At week 17, his first on-field test revealed a 5% differential deficit between the two legs in the hop test. At week 18, isokinetic test demonstrates that the uninjured leg was 7% stronger than the recovering leg in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 20, his second on-field test revealed a 2% difference in hop test; at week 21, his third isokinetic test demonstrated a difference of 5% in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 21, he performed his second return to sports movement assessment which revealed a 2% difference between the limbs. Since it was the end of the championship, the team asked him to partake in the playoffs; moreover the player was very motivated to participate in the playoffs also because he was the captain of the team. Together with the player and the team, we decided to let him play even though we were aware of a heightened risk of injury than what is reported in the literature because of two factors: biological recovery times and the results of the tests we performed. In the decision making process about the athlete’s recovery time, it is important to balance the information available from the literature with the desires of the patient to avoid frustration.

Keywords: ACL, football, rehabilitation, return to play

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Authors: Modi Alsubaie, Chris Dickens, Barnaby Dunn, Andy Gibson, Obioha Ukoumunned, Alison Evans, Rachael Vicary, Manish Gandhi, Willem Kuyken

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Background: Depression co-occurs in 20% of people with cardiovascular disorders, can persist for years and predicts worse physical health outcomes. While psychosocial treatments have been shown to effectively treat acute depression in those with comorbid cardiovascular disorders, to date there has been no evaluation of approaches aiming to prevent relapse and treat residual depression symptoms in this group. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the feasibility and acceptability of a randomised controlled trial design evaluating an adapted version of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) designed specifically for people with co-morbid depression and cardiovascular disorders. Methods: A 3-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial was conducted, comparing MBCT adapted for people with cardiovascular disorders plus treatment as usual (TAU), mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR) plus TAU, and TAU alone. Participants completed a set of self-report measures of depression severity, anxiety, quality of life, illness perceptions, mindfulness, self-compassion and affect and had their blood pressure taken immediately before, immediately after, and three months following the intervention. Those in the adapted-MBCT arm additionally underwent a qualitative interview to gather their views about the adapted intervention. Results: 3400 potentially eligible participants were approached when attending an outpatient appointment at a cardiology clinic or via a GP letter following a case note search. 242 (7.1%) were interested in taking part, 59 (1.7%) were screened as being suitable, and 33 (<1%) were eventually randomised to the three groups. The sample was heterogeneous in terms of whether they reported current depression or had a history of depression and the time since the onset of cardiovascular disease (one to 25 years). Of 11 participants randomised to adapted MBCT seven completed the full course, levels of home mindfulness practice were high, and positive qualitative feedback about the intervention was given. Twenty-nine out of 33 participants randomised completed all the assessment measures at all three-time points. With regards to the primary outcome (depression), five out of the seven people who completed the adapted MBCT and three out of five under MBSR showed significant clinical change, while in TAU no one showed any clinical change at the three-month follow-up. Conclusions: The adapted MBCT intervention was feasible and acceptable to participants. However, aspects of the trial design were not feasible. In particular, low recruitment rates were achieved, and there was a high withdrawal rate between screening and randomisation. Moreover, the heterogeneity in the sample was high meaning the adapted intervention was unlikely to be well tailored to all participants needs. This suggests that if the decision is made to move to a definitive trial, study recruitment procedures will need to be revised to more successfully recruit a target sample that optimally matches the adapted intervention.

Keywords: mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT), depression, cardiovascular disorders, feasibility, acceptability

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Authors: Sherin Ahmed El-Badry Sadek

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In this research, it is scientifically examined what contribution the professionalization of teachers can make to the development of a future-oriented vocational education and training system in Egypt. For this purpose, a needs assessment of the Egyptian vocational training system with the central actors and prevailing structures forms the foundation of the study, which theoretically underpinned with the attempt to resolve to some extent the tension between Luhmann's systems theory approach and the actor-centered theory of professional teacher competence. The vocational education system, in particular, must be adaptable and flexible due to the rapidly changing qualification requirements. In view of the pace of technological progress and the associated market changes, vocational training is no longer to be understood only as an educational tool aimed at those who achieve poorer academic performance or are not motivated to take up a degree. Rather, it is to be understood as a cornerstone for the development of society, and international experience shows that it is the core of lifelong learning. But to what extent have the education systems been able to react to these changes in their political, social, and technological systems? And how effective and sustainable are these changes actually? The vocational training system, in particular, has a particular impact on other social systems, which is why the appropriate parameters with the greatest leverage must be identified and adapted. Even if systems and structures are highly relevant, teachers must not hide behind them and must instead strive to develop further and to constantly learn. Despite numerous initiatives and programs to reform vocational training in Egypt, including the EU-funded Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) reform phase I and phase II, the fit of the skilled workers to the needs of the labor market is still insufficient. Surveys show that the majority of employers are very dissatisfied with the graduates that the vocational training system produces. The data was collected through guideline-based interviews with experts from the education system and relevant neighboring systems, which allowed me to reconstruct central in-depth structures, as well as patterns of action and interpretation, in order to subsequently feed these into a matrix of recommendations for action. These recommendations are addressed to different decision-makers and stakeholders and are intended to serve as an impetus for the sustainable improvement of the Egyptian vocational training system. The research findings have shown that education, and in particular vocational training, is a political field that is characterized by a high degree of complexity and which is embedded in a barely manageable, highly branched landscape of structures and actors. At the same time, the vocational training system is not only determined by endogenous factors but also increasingly shaped by the dynamics of the environment and the neighboring social subsystems, with a mutual dependency relationship becoming apparent. These interactions must be taken into account in all decisions, even if prioritization of measures and thus a clear sequence and process orientation are of great urgency.

Keywords: competence orientation, educational policies, education systems, expert interviews, globalization, organizational development, professionalization, systems theory, teacher training, TVET system, vocational training

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Authors: Yixin Zhu, Lishengsa Yue, Jian Sun, Lanyue Tang

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Modeling driving distraction in microscopic traffic simulation is crucial for enhancing simulation accuracy. Current driving distraction models are mainly derived from physical motion constraints under distracted states, in which distraction-related error terms are added to existing microscopic driver models. However, the model accuracy is not very satisfying, due to a lack of modeling the cognitive mechanism underlying the distraction. This study models driving distraction based on the Queueing Network Human Processor model (QN-MHP). This study utilizes the queuing structure of the model to perform task invocation and switching for distracted operation and control of the vehicle under driver distraction. Based on the assumption of the QN-MHP model about the cognitive sub-network, server F is a structural bottleneck. The latter information must wait for the previous information to leave server F before it can be processed in server F. Therefore, the waiting time for task switching needs to be calculated. Since the QN-MHP model has different information processing paths for auditory information and visual information, this study divides driving distraction into two types: auditory distraction and visual distraction. For visual distraction, both the visual distraction task and the driving task need to go through the visual perception sub-network, and the stimuli of the two are asynchronous, which is called stimulus on asynchrony (SOA), so when calculating the waiting time for switching tasks, it is necessary to consider it. In the case of auditory distraction, the auditory distraction task and the driving task do not need to compete for the server resources of the perceptual sub-network, and their stimuli can be synchronized without considering the time difference in receiving the stimuli. According to the Theory of Planned Behavior for drivers (TPB), this study uses risk entropy as the decision criterion for driver task switching. A logistic regression model is used with risk entropy as the independent variable to determine whether the driver performs a distraction task, to explain the relationship between perceived risk and distraction. Furthermore, to model a driver’s perception characteristics, a neurophysiological model of visual distraction tasks is incorporated into the QN-MHP, and executes the classical Intelligent Driver Model. The proposed driving distraction model integrates the psychological cognitive process of a driver with the physical motion characteristics, resulting in both high accuracy and interpretability. This paper uses 773 segments of distracted car-following in Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study data (SH-NDS) to classify the patterns of distracted behavior on different road facilities and obtains three types of distraction patterns: numbness, delay, and aggressiveness. The model was calibrated and verified by simulation. The results indicate that the model can effectively simulate the distracted car-following behavior of different patterns on various roadway facilities, and its performance is better than the traditional IDM model with distraction-related error terms. The proposed model overcomes the limitations of physical-constraints-based models in replicating dangerous driving behaviors, and internal characteristics of an individual. Moreover, the model is demonstrated to effectively generate more dangerous distracted driving scenarios, which can be used to construct high-value automated driving test scenarios.

Keywords: computational cognitive model, driving distraction, microscopic traffic simulation, psychological-physical constraints

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Authors: Tashwill Esterhuizen

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Throughout Africa, several countries continue to have laws which criminalise same-sex sexual activities, which increases the vulnerability of the LGBT community to stigma, discrimination, and persecution. These criminal provisions often form the basis upon which states deny LGBT activists the right to freely associate with other like-minded individuals and form organizations that protect their interests and advocate for the rights and aspirations of the LGBT community. Over the past year, however, there has been significant progress in the advancement of universal, fundamental rights of LGBT persons throughout Africa. In many instances, these advancements came about through the bravery of activists who have publically insisted (in environments where same-sex sexual practices are criminalised) that their rights should be respected. Where meaningful engagement with the State was fruitless, activists took their plight to the judiciary and have successfully sought to uphold the fundamental rights of LGBT persons, paving the way for a more inclusive and tolerant society. Litigation Progress: Botswana is a prime example. For several years, the State denied a group of LGBT activists their right to freely associate and form their organisation Lesbians, Gays, and Bisexuals of Botswana (LEGABIBO), which aimed to promote the interests of the LGBT community in Botswana. In March 2016, the Botswana Court of Appeal found that the government’s refusal to register LEGABIBO violated the activists’ right to associate freely. The Court held that the right freedom of association applies to all persons regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity. It does not matter that the views of the organisation are unpopular or unacceptable amongst the majority. In particular, the Court rejected the government of Botswana’s contention that registering LEGABIBO would disturb public peace and is contrary to public morality. Quite remarkably, the Court of Appeal recognised that while LGBT individuals are a minority group within the country, they are nonetheless persons entitled to constitutional protections of their dignity, regardless of whether they are unacceptable to others on religious or any other grounds. Furthermore, the Court held that human rights and fundamental freedoms are granted to all, including criminals or social outcasts because the denial of an individual’s humanity is the denial of their human dignity. This is crucial observation by the Court of Appeal, as once it is accepted that human rights apply to all human beings, then it becomes much easier for vulnerable groups to assert their own rights. Conclusion: The Botswana Court of Appeal decision, therefore, represents significant progress in the promotion of the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender persons. The judgment has broader implications for many other countries which do not provide recognition of sexual minorities. It highlights the State’s duty to uphold basic rights and to ensure dignity, tolerance, and acceptance for marginalised persons.

Keywords: acceptance, freedom of association, freedom of expression, fundamental rights and freedoms, gender identity, human rights are universal, inclusive, inherent human dignity, progress, sexual orientation, tolerance

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Adam Sims, Madhav Soti, Jitendra Gautam, David Carron

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Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis is a complex series of heterogeneous reactions between CO and H2 molecules (present in the syngas) on the surface of an active catalyst (Co, Fe, Ru, Ni, etc.) to produce gaseous, liquid, and waxy hydrocarbons. This product is composed of paraffins, olefins, and oxygenated compounds. The key challenge in applying the Fischer-Tropsch process to produce transportation fuels is to make the capital and production costs economically feasible relative to the comparative cost of existing petroleum resources. To meet this challenge, it is imperative to enhance the CO conversion while maximizing carbon selectivity towards the desired liquid hydrocarbon ranges (i.e. reduction in CH4 and CO2 selectivities) at high throughputs. At the same time, it is equally essential to increase the catalyst robustness and longevity without sacrificing catalyst activity. This paper focuses on process development to achieve the above. The paper describes the influence of operating parameters on Fischer Tropsch synthesis (FTS) from coal derived syngas in supercritical carbon dioxide (ScCO2). In addition, the unreacted gas and solvent recycle was incorporated and the effect of unreacted feed recycle was evaluated. It was expected that with the recycle, the feed rate can be increased. The increase in conversion and liquid selectivity accompanied by the production of narrower carbon number distribution in the product suggest that higher flow rates can and should be used when incorporating exit gas recycle. It was observed that this process was capable of enhancing the hydrocarbon selectivity (nearly 98 % CO conversion), reducing improving the carbon efficiency from 17 % to 51 % in a once through process and further converting 16 % CO2 to liquid with integrated recycle of the product gas stream and increasing the life of the catalyst. Catalyst robustness enhancement has been attributed to the absorption of heat of reaction by the compressed CO2 which reduced the formation of hotspots and the dissolution of waxes by the CO2 solvent which reduced the blinding of active sites. In addition, the recycling the product gas stream reduced the reactor footprint to one-fourth of the once through size and product fractionation utilizing the solvent effects of supercritical CO2 were realized. In addition to the negative CO2 selectivities, methane production was also inhibited and was limited to less than 1.5%. The effect of the process conditions on the life of the catalysts will also be presented. Fe based catalysts are known to have a high proclivity for producing CO2 during FTS. The data of the product spectrum and selectivity on Co and Fe-Co based catalysts as well as those obtained from commercial sources will also be presented. The measurable decision criteria were the increase in CO conversion at H2:CO ratio of 1:1 (as commonly found in coal gasification product stream) in supercritical phase as compared to gas phase reaction, decrease in CO2 and CH4 selectivity, overall liquid product distribution, and finally an increase in the life of the catalysts.

Keywords: carbon efficiency, Fischer Tropsch synthesis, low GHG, pressure tunable fractionation

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Authors: Flora Xu, Marta Fernandez Olmos

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This article is mainly about critical assessment and comprehensive understanding of the business strategy in the post COVID-19 scenario. This study aims to elucidate how companies are responding to the unique challenges posed by the pandemic and how these measures are shaping the future of the business environment. The pandemic has exposed the fragility and flexibility of the global supply chain, and procurement and production strategies should be reconsidered. It should increase the diversity of suppliers and the flexibility of the supply chain, and some companies are considering transferring their survival to the local market. This can increase local employment and reduce international transportation disruptions and customs issues. By shortening the distance between production and market, companies can respond more quickly to changes in demand and unforeseen events. The demand for remote work and online solutions will increase the adoption of digital technology and accelerate the digital transformation of many organizations. Marketing and communication strategies need to adapt to a constantly changing environment. The business resilience strategy was emphasized as a key component of the response to the COVID-19. The company is seeking to strengthen its risk management capabilities and develop a business continuity plan to cope with future unexpected disruptions. The pandemic has reconfigured human resource practices and changed the way companies manage their employees. Remote work has become the norm, and companies focus on managing workers' health and well-being, as well as flexible work policies to ensure operations and support for employees during crises. This change in human resources practice has a lasting impact on how companies apply talent and labor management in the post COVID-19 world. The pandemic has prompted a significant review of business strategies as companies adapt to constantly changing environments and seek to ensure their sustainability and profitability in times of crisis. This strategic reassessment has led to product diversification, exploring international markets and adapting to the changing market. Companies have responded to the unprecedented challenges brought by the COVID-19. The COVID-19 has promoted innovation effort in key areas and focused on the responsibility in today's business strategy for sustainability and the importance of corporate society. The important challenge of formulating and implementing business strategies in uncertain times. These challenges include making quick and agile decisions in turbulent environments, risk management, and adaptability to constantly changing market conditions. The COVID-19 highlights the importance of strategic planning and informed decision-making - making in a business environment characterized by uncertainty and complexity. In short, the pandemic has reconfigured the way companies handle business strategies and emphasized the necessity of preparing for future challenges in a business world marked by uncertainty and complexity.

Keywords: business strategy, crisis, digitalization, uncertainty

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by a series of biochemical, physiological and anthropometric indicators and is a life-threatening health problem due to its close association with chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The syndrome deserves great interest both in adults and children. Central obesity is the indispensable component of MetS. Particularly, children, who are morbidly obese have a great tendency to develop the disease, because they are under the threat in their future lives. Preventive measures at this stage should be considered. For this, investigators seek for an informative scale or an index for the purpose. So far, several, but not many suggestions come into the stage. However, the diagnostic decision is not so easy and may not be complete particularly in the pediatric population. The aim of the study was to develop a MetS index capable of predicting MetS, while children are at the morbid obesity stage. This study was performed on morbid obese (MO) children, which were divided into two groups. Morbid obese children, who do not possess MetS criteria comprised the first group (n=44). The second group was composed of children (n=42) with MetS diagnosis. Parents were informed about the signed consent forms, which are required for the participation of their children in the study. The approval of the study protocol was taken from the institutional ethics committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Helsinki Declaration was accepted prior to and during the study. Anthropometric measurements including weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip C, head C, neck C, biochemical tests including fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and blood pressure measurements (systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP)) were performed. Body fat percentage (BFP) values were determined by TANITA’s Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis technology. Body mass index and MetS indices were calculated. The equations for MetS index (MetSI) and advanced Donma MetS index (ADMI) were [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)]*100 and MetSI*[(SBP+DBP/Height)], respectively. Descriptive statistics including median values, compare means tests, correlation-regression analysis were performed within the scope of data evaluation using the statistical package program, SPSS. Statistically significant mean differences were determined by a p value smaller than 0.05. Median values for MetSI and ADMI in MO (MetS-) and MO (MetS+) groups were calculated as (25.9 and 36.5) and (74.0 and 106.1), respectively. Corresponding mean±SD values for BFPs were 35.9±7.1 and 38.2±7.7 in groups. Correlation analysis of these two indices with corresponding general BFP values exhibited significant association with ADMI, close to significance with MetSI in MO group. Any significant correlation was found with neither of the indices in MetS group. In conclusion, important associations observed with MetS indices in MO group were quite meaningful. The presence of these associations in MO group was important for showing the tendency towards the development of MetS in MO (MetS-) participants. The other index, ADMI, was more helpful for predictive purpose.

Keywords: body fat percentage, child, index, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

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Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

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Authors: Ch. Sridevi, S. P. Shailender Kumar, B. Gurudayal, A. Chalapathi Rao, K. Koteswara Rao, P. Srinivasulu

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System reliability and system availability evaluation plays a crucial role in ensuring the seamless operation of complex satellite data reception system with consistent performance for longer periods. This paper presents a novel approach for the same using a case study on one of the antenna systems at satellite data reception ground station in India. The methodology involves analyzing system's components, their failure rates, system's architecture, generation of logical reliability block diagram model and estimating the reliability of the system using the component level mean time between failures considering exponential distribution to derive a baseline estimate of the system's reliability. The model is then validated with collected system level field failure data from the operational satellite data reception systems that includes failure occurred, failure time, criticality of the failure and repair times by using statistical techniques like median rank, regression and Weibull analysis to extract meaningful insights regarding failure patterns and practical reliability of the system and to assess the accuracy of the developed reliability model. The study mainly focused on identification of critical units within the system, which are prone to failures and have a significant impact on overall performance and brought out a reliability model of the identified critical unit. This model takes into account the interdependencies among system components and their impact on overall system reliability and provides valuable insights into the performance of the system to understand the Improvement or degradation of the system over a period of time and will be the vital input to arrive at the optimized design for future development. It also provides a plug and play framework to understand the effect on performance of the system in case of any up gradations or new designs of the unit. It helps in effective planning and formulating contingency plans to address potential system failures, ensuring the continuity of operations. Furthermore, to instill confidence in system users, the duration for which the system can operate continuously with the desired level of 3 sigma reliability was estimated that turned out to be a vital input to maintenance plan. System availability and station availability was also assessed by considering scenarios of clash and non-clash to determine the overall system performance and potential bottlenecks. Overall, this paper establishes a comprehensive methodology for reliability and availability analysis of complex satellite data reception systems. The results derived from this approach facilitate effective planning contingency measures, and provide users with confidence in system performance and enables decision-makers to make informed choices about system maintenance, upgrades and replacements. It also aids in identifying critical units and assessing system availability in various scenarios and helps in minimizing downtime and optimizing resource allocation.

Keywords: exponential distribution, reliability modeling, reliability block diagram, satellite data reception system, system availability, weibull analysis

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Authors: Bei Shan Lin, Chun Mei Lu, Ya Ping Chen, Li Chen Lu

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This study explores the ethical issues concerning the use of physical restraint in geriatric care. Physical restraint use in a medical care setting is seen as a controversial form of treatment that has occurred over decades. There is no doubt that people nowadays are living longer than previous generations. The ageing process is inevitable. Common disease such as impaired comprehension, memory loss, and trouble expressing one’s self contribute to the difficulty that these older patients have in adapting to medical institution. For these reasons, physical restraint is often used in reducing the risk of falling, managing wandering behaviour, preventing agitation, and promoting patient compliance in geriatric care. It can mean that physical restraints are considered as a common practice that is used in the care of older patients. It is most commonly used for three specific purposes, including procedural restraint, restraint to prevent falls, and behavioural restraints. Although there have been well documented instances of morbidity and mortality recognised as being potential risks associated with physical restraint use, it continues to be permitted and used in healthcare, often in the name of safety. However, there is insufficient evidence supporting the effectiveness of physical restraint use reducing injuries from falls and controlling challenging behaviour in geriatric care settings. There is barely any empirical evidence of either a scientific basis or clinical trials have evaluated the improvement in patient safety following physical restraint. In difficult clinical situations, guidelines and practical suggestions for Healthcare professionals to comply requirements can help those making appropriate decisions and to facilitate better judgement regarding physical restraint use. The following recommendations are given for physical restraint use in long-term care settings: an interdisciplinary team approach to assess, evaluate, and treat underlying diseases to determine if treatment can ease issues precipitating physical restraint use; a clearly stated purpose of treatment plan should be made after weighing up the risk of physical restraint use against the risk of without physical restraint use; a care plan for physical restraint has to include individualised treatment planning, informed consent, identification and remedial action to avoid negative consequences, regular assessment and modification, reduction and removal of risks; patients and their families must have the opportunity to consider and give voluntary informed consent prior to physical restraint utilisation; patients, family members, and Healthcare professionals should be educated on use and adverse consequences of physical restraints in order to make raise awareness of potential risks and to take appropriate steps to prevent unnecessary harm; after physical restraint removal, Healthcare professionals should discuss with patients and family members about their experience, feelings, and any anxieties regarding the treatment. Physical restraint should always be considered a last resort as deprive patient’s freedom, control, and individuality. Healthcare professionals should emphasise on providing individualized care, interdisciplinary decision-making process, and creative and collaborative alternatives to promote older patient’s rights, dignity and overall well-being as much as possible.

Keywords: ethics healthcare, geriatric care, healthcare, physical restraint

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Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

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While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

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Authors: D. Mulligan, D. Casey

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Introductory Statement: Delegation is when a registered nurse (RN) transfers a task or activity that is normally within their scope of practice to another person (delegatee). RN delegation is common practice with unregistered staff, e.g., student nurses and health care assistants (HCAs). As the role of the HCA is increasingly embedded as a direct care and support role, especially in long-term residential care for older adults, there is RN uncertainty as to their role as a delegator. The assignment is when a task is transferred to a person that is within the role specification of the delegatee. RNs in long-term care (LTC) for older people are increasingly working in teams where there are less RNs and more HCAs providing direct care to the residents. The RN is responsible and accountable for their decision to delegate and assign tasks to HCAs. In an interpretive, multiple case studies to explore how delegation of tasks by RNs to HCAs occurred in long-term care settings in Ireland the importance of the RN understanding their scope of practice emerged. Methodology: Focus group interviews and individual interviews were undertaken as part of a multiple case study. Both cases, anonymized as Case A and Case B, were within the public health service in Ireland. The case study sites were long-term care settings for older adults located in different social care divisions, and in different geographical areas. Four focus group interviews with staff nurses and three individual interviews with CNMs were undertaken. The interactive data analysis approach was the analytical framework used, with within-case and cross-case analysis. The theoretical lens of organizational role theory, applying the role episode model (REM), was used to understand, interpret, and explain the findings. Study Findings: RNs and CNMs understood the role of the nurse regulator and the scope of practice. RNs understood that the RN was accountable for the care and support provided to residents. However, RNs and CNM2s could not describe delegation in the context of their scope of practice. In both cases, the RNs did not have a standardized process for assessing HCA competence to undertake nursing tasks or interventions. RNs did not routinely supervise HCAs. Tasks were assigned and not delegated. There were differences between the cases in relation to understanding which nursing tasks required delegation. HCAs in Case A undertook clinical vital sign assessments and documentation. HCAs in Case B did not routinely undertake these activities. Delegation and assignment were influenced by the organizational factors, e.g., model of care, absence of delegation policies, inadequate RN education on delegation, and a lack of RN and HCA role clarity. Concluding Statement: Nurse staffing levels and skill mix in long-term care settings continue to change with more HCAs providing more direct care and support. With decreasing RN staffing levels RNs will be required to delegate and assign more direct care to HCAs. There is a requirement to distinguish between RN assignment and delegation at policy, regulation, and organizational levels.

Keywords: assignment, delegation, registered nurse, scope of practice

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Authors: Katharina Lapin, Debashis Sanyal

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Worldwide urban areas are growing. Urbanization has a great impact on social and economic development and ecosystem services. This global trend of urbanization also has significant impact on habitat and biodiversity. The impact of urbanization on the biodiversity of cities in Europe and North America is well studied, while there is a lack of data from cities in currently fast growing urban areas. Indian cities are expanding. The scientific community and the governmental authorities are facing the ongoing urbanization process as an opportunity for the environment. This case study supports the evaluation of urban biodiversity of the city Raipur in the North-West of India. The aim of this study is to assess the overview of the environmental and ecological implications of urbanization. The collected data and analysis was used to discuss the challenges for the sustainable city development. Vascular plants were chosen as an appropriate indicator for the assessment of local biodiversity changes. On the one hand, the vegetation cover is sensible to anthropogenic influence, and in the other hand, the local species composition is comparable to changes at the regional and national scale, using the plant index of India. Further information of abiotic situation can be gathered with the determination of indicator species. In order to calculate the influence of urbanization on the native plant diversity, the Shannon diversity index H´ was chosen. The Pielou`s pooled quadrate method was used for estimating diversity when a random sample is not expected. It was used to calculate the Pilou´s index of evenness. The estimated species coverage was used for calculating the H´ and J. Pearson correlation was performed to test the relationship between urbanization pattern and plant diversity. Further, a SWOT analysis was used in for analyzing internal and external factors impinging on a decision making process. The city of Raipur (21.25°N 81.63°E) has a population of 1,010,087 inhabitants living in an urban area of 226km², in the district of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh. Within the last decade, the urban area of Raipur increased. The results show that various novel ecosystems exist in the urban area of Raipur. The high amount of native flora is mainly to find at the shore of urban lakes and along the river Karun. These areas of high Biodiversity Index are to protect as urban biodiversity hot spots. The governmental authorities are well informed about the environmental challenges for the sustainable development of the city. Together with the scientific community of the Technical University of Raipur many engineering solutions are discussed for implementation of the future. The case study helped to point out the importance environmental measures that support the ecosystem services of green infrastructure. The fast process of urbanization is difficult to control. Uncontrolled creation of urban housing leads to difficulties in unsustainable use of natural resources. This is the major threat for the urban biodiversity.

Keywords: India, novel ecosystems, plant diversity, urban ecology

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Authors: Nirit Gavish, Rotem Halutz, Liad Neta

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Nowadays, chatbots are gaining more and more attention due to the advent of large language models. One of the important considerations in chatbot design is how to create an interface to achieve high user satisfaction, trust, and acceptance. Since WhatsApp conversations sometimes substitute for face-to-face communication, we studied whether WhatsAppization of the chatbot -making the conversation resemble a WhatsApp conversation more- will improve user satisfaction, trust, and acceptance, or whether the opposite will occur due to the Uncanny Valley (UV) effect. The task was a drive-sharing task, in which participants communicated with a textual chatbot via WhatsApp and could decide whether to participate in a ride to college with a driver suggested by the chatbot. WhatsAppization of the chatbot was done in two ways: By a dialog-style conversation (Dialog versus No Dialog), and by adding WhatsApp indicators – “Last Seen”, “Connected”, “Read Receipts”, and “Typing…” (Indicators versus No Indicators). Our 120 participants were randomly assigned to one of the four 2 by 2 design groups, with 30 participants in each. They interacted with the WhatsApp chatbot and then filled out a questionnaire. The results demonstrated that, as expected from the manipulation, the interaction with the chatbot was longer for the dialog condition compared to the no dialog. This extra interaction, however, did not lead to higher acceptance -quite the opposite, since participants in the dialog condition were less willing to implement the decision made at the end of the conversation with the chatbot and continue the interaction with the driver they chose. The results are even more striking when considering the Indicators condition. Both for the satisfaction measures and the trust measures, participants’ ratings were lower in the Indicators condition compared to the No Indicators. Participants in the Indicators condition felt that the ride search process was harder to operate, and slower (even though the actual interaction time was similar). They were less convinced that the chatbot suggested real trips and they trusted the person offering the ride and referred to them by the chatbot less. These effects were more evident for participants who preferred to share their rides using WhatsApp compared to participants who preferred chatbots for that purpose. Considering our findings, we can say that the WhatsAppization of the chatbot was detrimental. This is true for the both chatbot WhatsAppization methods – by making the conversation more a dialog and adding WhatsApp indicators. For the chosen drive-sharing task, the results were, in addition to lower satisfaction, less trust in the chatbot’s suggestion and even in the driver suggested by the chatbot, and lower willingness to actually undertake the suggested ride. In addition, it seems that the most problematic WhatsAppization method was using WhatsApp’s indicators during the interaction with the chatbot. The current study suggests that a conversation with an artificial agent should also not imitate a WhatsApp conversation very closely. With the proliferation of WhatsApp use, the emotional and social aspect of face-to face commination are moving to WhatsApp communication. Based on the current study’s findings, it is possible that the UV effect also occurs in WhatsAppization, and not only in humanization, of the chatbot, with a similar feeling of eeriness, and is more pronounced for people who prefer to use WhatsApp over chatbots. The current research can serve as a starting point to study the very interesting and important topic of chatbots WhatsAppization. More methods of WhatsAppization and other tasks could be the focus of further studies.

Keywords: chatbot, WhatsApp, humanization, Uncanny Valley, drive sharing

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Authors: T. Lakshmi Priya

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With the widening definition of heritage, the challenges of heritage management has become more complex . Today heritage not only includes significant monuments but comprises historic areas / sites, historic cities, cultural landscapes, and living heritage sites. There is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the values associated with these heritage resources, which will enable their protection and management. These diverse cultural resources are managed by multiple agencies having their own way of operating in the heritage sites. An Integrated approach to management of these cultural resources ensures its sustainability for the future generation. This paper outlines the importance of an integrated approach for the management and protection of complex heritage sites in India by examining four case studies. The methodology for this study is based on secondary research and primary surveys conducted during the preparation of the conservation management plansfor the various sites. The primary survey included basic documentation, inventorying, and community surveys. Red Fort located in the city of Delhi is one of the most significant forts built in 1639 by the Mughal Emperor Shahjahan. This fort is a national icon and stands testimony to the various historical events . It is on the ramparts of Red Fort that the national flag was unfurled on 15th August 1947, when India became independent, which continues even today. Management of this complex fort necessitated the need for an integrated approach, where in the needs of the official and non official stakeholders were addressed. The understanding of the inherent values and significance of this site was arrived through a systematic methodology of inventorying and mapping of information. Hampi, located in southern part of India, is a living heritage site inscribed in the World Heritage list in 1986. The site comprises of settlements, built heritage structures, traditional water systems, forest, agricultural fields and the remains of the metropolis of the 16th century Vijayanagar empire. As Hampi is a living heritage site having traditional systems of management and practices, the aim has been to include these practices in the current management so that there is continuity in belief, thought and practice. The existing national, regional and local planning instruments have been examined and the local concerns have been addressed.A comprehensive understanding of the site, achieved through an integrated model, is being translated to an action plan which safeguards the inherent values of the site. This paper also examines the case of the 20th century heritage building of National Archives of India, Delhi and protection of a 12th century Tomb of Sultan Ghari located in south Delhi. A comprehensive understanding of the site, lead to the delineation of the Archaeological Park of Sultan Ghari, in the current Master Plan for Delhi, for the protection of the tomb and the settlement around it. Through this study it is concluded that the approach of Integrated Conservation has enabled decision making that sustains the values of these complex heritage sites in Indian context.

Keywords: conservation, integrated, management, approach

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Authors: Khondokar Farid Ahmmed, Robin Bown

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It is widely recognized that the formal financing of Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) by Private Commercial Banks (PCBs) is restricted. Due to changing financial market competition, SMEs are now important customers to PCBs in the member countries of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Various initiatives in enhancing the efficiency of risk assessment of PCBs have failed in increasing financing accessibility in the traditional financing system where information asymmetry is a key constraint. In this circumstance, PCBs need to undertake a holistic approach. Holistic approach refers to methods that attempt to fundamentally change established traditions. To undertake holistic approach, this study intends to find the entire established financing culture between PCBs and SMEs in a new lens beyond the tradition on the basis of two basic questions: “What is the traditional lending culture between PCBs and SMEs” and “What could be potential role of PCBs to develop that culture where focusing on SME financing to PCBs". This study considered formal SME financing in Bangladesh by focusing on SMEs applying for their first loan. Bangladesh is a member country of ADB. The data collection method is semi-structured and we utilized face-to-face interviews with in-depth branch managers, higher officials and owner-managers of SME customers of PCBs and higher officials of SME Foundation and the Bangladesh central bank. Discourse analysis method was used for data analysis on the frame of thematic discussion fully based on participants’ views. The research found that branch managers and loan officers have a high level of power in assessing and financing decision-making. There is a changing attitude in PCB sector in requiring flexible collateral assets. Branch managers (Loan Officers) consider value of business prospect of owner-mangers as complementary of collateral assets. However, the study found the assessment process of business prospect is entirely unstructured and linked with socio-cultural settings that does not support PCBs’ changing manner in terms of collateral requirement. The study redefined and classified collateral assets to include all financing constructs in a structure. The degree of value of the collateral assets determines the degree of business prospects. This study suggested applying an outside classroom-learning paradigm such as “knowledge tour” to enhance the value of the kinds of collateral assets. This is the scope of PCBs in increasing SMEs’ financing eligibility in win-win basis. The findings and proposition could be effective in other ADB member countries and audiences in the field.

Keywords: CCA, financing, information asymmetry, PCA, PCB, financing

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Stephen Bahooshy

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Our understanding of gender inequality has advanced in recent years. Differences in pay and societal gendered behaviour expectations have been emphasized. It is acknowledged globally that gender shapes everyone’s experiences of health and social care, including access to care, use of services and products, and the interaction with care providers. NHS Digital in England collects data from local authorities on the number of carers and people with support needs and the services they access. This data does not provide a gender breakdown. Caring can have many positive and negative impacts on carers’ health and wellbeing. For example, caring can improve physical health, provide a sense of pride and purpose, and reduced stress levels for those who undertake a caring role by choice. Negatives of caring include financial concerns, social isolation, a reduction in earnings, and not being recognized as a carer or involved and consulted by health and social care professionals. Treating male and female carers differently is by definition unequitable and precludes one gender from receiving the benefits of caring whilst potentially overburdening the other with the negatives of caring. In order to explore the issue on a preliminary basis, five local authorities who provide statutory adult social care services in England were sent Freedom of Information requests in 2019. The authorities were selected to include county councils and London boroughs. The authorities were asked to provide data on the amount of money spent on care at home packages to people over 65 years, broken down by gender and carer gender for each financial year between 2013 and 2019. Results indicated that in each financial year, female carers supporting someone over 65 years received less financial support for care at home support packages than male carers. Over the six-year period, this difference equated to a £9.5k deficit in financial support received on average per female carer when compared to male carers. An example of a London borough with the highest disparity presented an average weekly spend on care at home for people over 65 with a carer of £261.35 for male carers and £165.46 for female carers. Consequently, female carers in this borough received on average £95.89 less per week in care at home support than male carers. This highlights a real and potentially detrimental disparity in the care support received to female carers in order to support them to continue to care in parts of England. More research should be undertaken in this area to better explore this issue and to understand if these findings are unique to these social care providers or part of a wider phenomenon. NHS Digital should request local authorities collect data on gender in the same way that large employers in the United Kingdom are required by law to provide data on staff salaries by gender. People who allocate social care packages of support should consider the impact of gender when allocating support packages to people with support needs and who have carers to reduce any potential impact of gender bias on their decision-making.

Keywords: caregivers, carers, gender equality, social care

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Authors: Megan Glyde, Louise Dye, David Keane, Ed Sutherland

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Background: Typically patient education is provided either verbally, in the form of written material, or with a multimedia-based tool such as videos, CD-ROMs, DVDs, or via the internet. By providing patients with effective educational tools, this can help to meet their information needs and subsequently empower these patients and allow them to participate within medical-decision making. Video education may have some distinct advantages compared to other modalities. For instance, whilst eHealth is emerging as a promising modality of patient education, an individual’s ability to access, read, and navigate through websites or online modules varies dramatically in relation to health literacy levels. Literacy levels may also limit patients’ ability to understand written education, whereas video education can be watched passively by patients and does not require high literacy skills. Other benefits of video education include that the same information is provided consistently to each patient, it can be a cost-effective method after the initial cost of producing the video, patients can choose to watch the videos by themselves or in the presence of others, and they can pause and re-watch videos to suit their needs. Health information videos are not only viewed by patients in formal educational sessions, but are increasingly being viewed on websites such as YouTube. Whilst there is a lot of anecdotal and sometimes misleading information on YouTube, videos from government organisations and professional associations contain trustworthy and high-quality information and could enable YouTube to become a powerful information dissemination platform for patients and carers. This systematic review will examine the efficacy of video education to improve treatment or illness-related knowledge in patients with various long-term conditions, in comparison to other modalities of education. Methods: Only studies which match the following criteria will be included: participants will have a long-term physical health condition, video education will aim to improve treatment or illness related knowledge and will be tested in isolation, and the study must be a randomised controlled trial. Knowledge will be the primary outcome measure, with modality preference, anxiety, and behaviour change as secondary measures. The searches have been conducted in the following databases: OVID Medline, OVID PsycInfo, OVID Embase, CENTRAL and ProQuest, and hand searching for relevant published and unpublished studies has also been carried out. Screening and data extraction will be conducted independently by 2 researchers. Included studies will be assessed for their risk of bias in accordance with Cochrane guidelines, and heterogeneity will also be assessed before deciding whether a meta-analysis is appropriate or not. Results and Conclusions: Appropriate synthesis of the studies in relation to each outcome measure will be reported, along with the conclusions and implications.

Keywords: long-term condition, patient education, systematic review, video

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Authors: Ishan Naidu, Jessica Ryvlin, Devin Videlefsky

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Introduction: Back pain is a leading cause of years lived with disability and economic burden, exceeding over $20 billion in healthcare costs not including indirect costs such as absence from work and caregiving. The multifactorial nature of back pain leads to treatment modalities administered by a variety of specialists, which are often disjointed. Multiple studies have found that patients receiving delayed physical therapy for lower back pain had higher medical-related costs from increased health service utilization as well as a reduced improvement in pain severity compared to early management. Uncoordinated health care delivery can exacerbate the physical and economic toll of the chronic condition, thus improvements in interdisciplinary, shared decision-making may improve outcomes. Objective: To assess whether a multidisciplinary spine clinic (MSC), consisting of orthopedic surgery, neurosurgery, pain medicine, and physiatry, alters interventional and non-interventional planning and treatment compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine clinic (USC) including only orthopedic surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with patients initially presenting for spine care to orthopedic surgeons between July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019. Time to treatment recommendation, time to treatment and rates of treatment recommendations were assessed, including physical therapy, injections and surgery. Treatment rates were compared between MSC and USC using Pearson’s chi-square test logistic regression. Time to treatment recommendation and time to treatment were compared using log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard regression. All analyses were repeated for the propensity score (PS) matched subsample. Results: This study included 1,764 patients, with 692 at MSC and 1,072 at USC. Patients in MSC were more likely to be recommended injection when compared to USC (8.5% vs. 5.4%, p=0.01). When adjusted for confounders, the likelihood of injection recommendation remained greater in MSC than USC (Odds ratio [OR]=2.22, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.53), p=0.001). MSC was also associated with a shorter time to receiving injection recommendation versus USC (median: 21 vs. 32 days, log-rank: p<0.001; hazard ratio [HR]=1.90, 95% CI: (1.25, 2.90), p=0.003). MSC was associated with a higher likelihood of injection treatment (OR=2.27, 95% CI: (1.39, 3.73), p=0.001) and shorter lead time (HR=1.98, 95% CI: (1.27, 3.09), p=0.003). PS-matched analyses yielded similar conclusions. Conclusions: Care delivered at a multidisciplinary spine clinic was associated with a higher likelihood of recommending injection and a shorter lead time to injection administration when compared to a traditional unidisciplinary spine surgery clinic. Multidisciplinary clinics may facilitate coordinated care amongst different specialties resulting in increased utilization of less invasive treatment modalities while also improving care efficiency. The multidisciplinary clinic model is an important advancement in care delivery and communication, which can be used as a powerful method of improving patient outcomes as treatment guidelines evolve.

Keywords: coordinated care, epidural steroid injection, multi-disciplinary, non-invasive

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Authors: Nikitha Francis, Anjana Hoode, Vinitha George, Jayashree S. Bhat

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The interaction between cognition and language, referred as cognitive-communication, is very intricate, involving several mental processes such as perception, memory, attention, lexical retrieval, decision making, motor planning, self-monitoring and knowledge. Cognitive-communication disorders are difficulties in communicative competencies that result from underlying cognitive impairments of attention, memory, organization, information processing, problem solving, and executive functions. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an acquired, non - progressive condition, resulting in distinct deficits of cognitive communication abilities such as naming, word-finding, self-monitoring, auditory recognition, attention, perception and memory. Cognitive-communication intervention in TBI is individualized, in order to enhance the person’s ability to process and interpret information for better functioning in their family and community life. The present case report illustrates the cognitive-communicative behaviors and the intervention outcomes of an adult with TBI, who was brought to the Department of Audiology and Speech Language Pathology, with cognitive and communicative disturbances, consequent to road traffic accident. On a detailed assessment, she showed naming deficits along with perseverations and had severe difficulty in recalling the details of the accident, her house address, places she had visited earlier, names of people known to her, as well as the activities she did each day, leading to severe breakdowns in her communicative abilities. She had difficulty in initiating, maintaining and following a conversation. She also lacked orientation to time and place. On administration of the Manipal Manual of Cognitive Linguistic Abilities (MMCLA), she exhibited poor performance on tasks related to visual and auditory perception, short term memory, working memory and executive functions. She attended 20 sessions of cognitive-communication intervention which followed a domain-general, adaptive training paradigm, with tasks relevant to everyday cognitive-communication skills. Compensatory strategies such as maintaining a dairy with reminders of her daily routine, names of people, date, time and place was also recommended. MMCLA was re-administered and her performance in the tasks showed significant improvements. Occurrence of perseverations and word retrieval difficulties reduced. She developed interests to initiate her day-to-day activities at home independently, as well as involve herself in conversations with her family members. Though she lacked awareness about her deficits, she actively involved herself in all the therapy activities. Rehabilitation of moderate to severe head injury patients can be done effectively through a holistic cognitive retraining with a focus on different cognitive-linguistic domains. Selection of goals and activities should have relevance to the functional needs of each individual with TBI, as highlighted in the present case report.

Keywords: cognitive-communication, executive functions, memory, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Chrysthia Papacleovoulou

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The era of de-regulation, off-shore and tax haven jurisdictions, and shelf companies has come to an end. The usage of complex corporate structures involving trust instruments, special purpose vehicles, holding-subsidiaries in offshore haven jurisdictions, and taking advantage of tax treaties is soaring. States which raced to introduce corporate friendly legislation, tax incentives, and creative international trust law in order to attract greater FDI are now faced with regulatory challenges and are forced to revisit the corporate form and its tax treatment. The fiduciary services industry, which dominated over the last 3 decades, is now striving to keep up with the new regulatory framework as a result of a number of European and international legislative measures. This article considers the challenges to the company and the corporate form as a result of the legislative measures on tax planning and tax avoidance, CRS reporting, FATCA, CFC rules, OECD’s BEPS, the EU Commission's new transparency rules for intermediaries that extends to tax advisors, accountants, banks & lawyers who design and promote tax planning schemes for their clients, new EU rules to block artificial tax arrangements and new transparency requirements for financial accounts, tax rulings and multinationals activities (DAC 6), G20's decision for a global 15% minimum corporate tax and banking regulation. As a result, states are found in a race of over-regulation and compliance. These legislative measures constitute a global up-side down tax-harmonisation. Through the adoption of the OECD’s BEPS, states agreed to an international collaboration to end tax avoidance and reform international taxation rules. Whilst the idea was to ensure that multinationals would pay their fair share of tax everywhere they operate, an indirect result of the aforementioned regulatory measures was to attack private clients-individuals who -over the past 3 decades- used the international tax system and jurisdictions such as Marshal Islands, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Seychelles, St. Vincent, Jersey, Guernsey, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Cyprus, and Malta, to name but a few, to engage in legitimate tax planning and tax avoidance. Companies can no longer maintain bank accounts without satisfying the real substance test. States override the incorporation doctrine theory and apply a real seat or real substance test in taxing companies and their activities, targeting even the beneficial owners personally with tax liability. Tax authorities in civil law jurisdictions lift the corporate veil through the public registries of UBO Registries and Trust Registries. As a result, the corporate form and the doctrine of limited liability are challenged in their core. Lastly, this article identifies the development of new instruments, such as funds and private placement insurance policies, and the trend of digital nomad workers. The baffling question is whether industry and states can meet somewhere in the middle and exit this over-regulation frenzy.

Keywords: company, regulation, TAX, corporate structure, trust vehicles, real seat

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Authors: Sonia Butalia, Huong Luu, Alexis Guigue, Karen J. B. Martins, Khanh Vu, Scott W. Klarenbach

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Obesity-related health conditions impose a substantial economic burden on payers due to increased healthcare use. Estimates of healthcare resource use and costs associated with obesity-related comorbidities are needed to inform policies and interventions targeting these conditions. Methods: Adults living with obesity were identified (a procedure-related body mass index code for class 2/3 obesity between 2012 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada; excluding those with bariatric surgery), and outcomes were compared over 1-year (2019/2020) between those who had and did not have specific obesity-related comorbidities. The probability of using a healthcare service (based on the odds ratio of a zero [OR-zero] cost) was compared; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported. Logistic regression and a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution were used for total healthcare cost comparisons ($CDN); cost ratios and estimated cost differences (95% CI) were reported. Potential socio-demographic and clinical confounders were adjusted for, and incremental cost differences were representative of a referent case. Results: A total of 220,190 adults living with obesity were included; 44% had hypertension, 25% had osteoarthritis, 24% had type-2 diabetes, 17% had cardiovascular disease, 12% had insulin resistance, 9% had chronic back pain, and 4% of females had polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS). The probability of hospitalization, ED visit, and ambulatory care was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (hospitalization: 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.57 [0.55/0.59]] / ED visit: 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.53/0.56]] / ambulatory care visit: 2.4-times [OR-zero: 0.41 [0.40/0.43]]), cardiovascular disease (2.7-times [OR-zero: 0.37 [0.36/0.38]] / 1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.52 [0.51/0.53]] / 2.8-times [OR-zero: 0.36 [0.35/0.36]]), osteoarthritis (2.0-times [OR-zero: 0.51 [0.50/0.53]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.74 [0.73/0.76]] / 2.5-times [OR-zero: 0.40 [0.40/0.41]]), type-2 diabetes (1.9-times [OR-zero: 0.54 [0.52/0.55]] / 1.4-times [OR-zero: 0.72 [0.70/0.73]] / 2.1-times [OR-zero: 0.47 [0.46/0.47]]), hypertension (1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]] / 1.3-times [OR-zero: 0.79 [0.77/0.80]] / 2.2-times [OR-zero: 0.46 [0.45/0.47]]), PCOS (not significant / 1.2-times [OR-zero: 0.83 [0.79/0.88]] / not significant), and insulin resistance (1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.88 [0.84/0.91]] / 1.1-times [OR-zero: 0.92 [0.89/0.94]] / 1.8-times [OR-zero: 0.56 [0.54/0.57]]). After fully adjusting for potential confounders, the total healthcare cost ratio was higher in those with a following obesity-related comorbidity versus those without: chronic back pain (1.54-times [1.51/1.56]), cardiovascular disease (1.45-times [1.43/1.47]), osteoarthritis (1.36-times [1.35/1.38]), type-2 diabetes (1.30-times [1.28/1.31]), hypertension (1.27-times [1.26/1.28]), PCOS (1.08-times [1.05/1.11]), and insulin resistance (1.03-times [1.01/1.04]). Conclusions: Adults with obesity who have specific disease-related health conditions have a higher probability of healthcare use and incur greater costs than those without specific comorbidities; incremental costs are larger when other obesity-related health conditions are not adjusted for. In a specific referent case, hypertension was costliest (44% had this condition with an additional annual cost of $715 [$678/$753]). If these findings hold for the Canadian population, hypertension in persons with obesity represents an estimated additional annual healthcare cost of $2.5 billion among adults living with obesity (based on an adult obesity rate of 26%). Results of this study can inform decision making on investment in interventions that are effective in treating obesity and its complications.

Keywords: administrative data, healthcare cost, obesity-related comorbidities, real world evidence

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Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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Authors: Stephanie Wall, Guido Wimmers

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The construction and operation of buildings greatly contribute to environmental degradation through resource and energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The design of the envelope system affects the environmental impact of a building in two major ways; 1) high thermal performance and air tightness can significantly reduce the operational energy of the building and 2) the material selection for the envelope largely impacts the embodied energy of the building. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a scientific methodology that is used to systematically analyze the environmental load of processes or products, such as buildings, over their life. The paper will discuss the results of a comparative LCA of different envelope designs and the long-term monitoring of the Wood Innovation Research Lab (WIRL); a Passive House (PH), industrial building under construction in Prince George, Canada. The WIRL has a footprint of 30m x 30m on a concrete raft slab foundation and consists of shop space as well as a portion of the building that includes a two-story office/classroom space. The lab building goes beyond what was previously thought possible in regards to energy efficiency of industrial buildings in cold climates due to their large volume to surface ratio, small floor area, and high air change rate, and will be the first PH certified industrial building in Canada. These challenges were mitigated through the envelope design which utilizes solar gains while minimizing overheating, reduces thermal bridges with thick (570mm) prefabricated truss walls filled with blown in mineral wool insulation and a concrete slab and roof insulated with EPS rigid insulation. The envelope design results in lower operational and embodied energy when compared to buildings built to local codes or with steel. The LCA conducted using Athena Impact Estimator for Buildings identifies project specific hot spots as well illustrates that for high-efficiency buildings where the operational energy is relatively low; the embodied energy of the material selection becomes a significant design decision as it greatly impacts the overall environmental footprint of the building. The results of the LCA will be reinforced by long-term monitoring of the buildings envelope performance through the installation of temperature and humidity sensors throughout the floor slab, wall and roof panels and through detailed metering of the energy consumption. The data collected from the sensors will also be used to reinforce the results of hygrothermal analysis using WUFI®, a program used to verify the durability of the wall and roof panels. The WIRL provides an opportunity to showcase the use of wood in a high performance envelope of an industrial building and to emphasize the importance of considering the embodied energy of a material in the early stages of design. The results of the LCA will be of interest to leading researchers and scientists committed to finding sustainable solutions for new construction and high-performance buildings.

Keywords: high performance envelope, life cycle assessment, long term monitoring, passive house, prefabricated panels

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Authors: Mbonigaba Swale

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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.

Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis

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Authors: Saiful Islam, Deuk Jong Bae

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The purpose of this study is to examine citizen satisfaction and competitiveness of a Public Private Partnership project. The study focuses on PPP in the transport sector and investigates the New Bundang Subway Line (NBL) in South Korea as the object of a case study. Most PPP studies are dominated by the study of public and private sector interests, which are classified in to three major areas comprising of policy, finance, and management. This study will explore the user perspective by assessing customer satisfaction upon NBL cost and service quality, also the competitiveness of NBL compared to other alternative transport modes which serve the Jeongja – Gangnam trip or vice versa. The regular Bundang Subway Line, New Bundang Subway Line, bus and private vehicle are selected as the alternative transport modes. The study analysed customer satisfaction of NBL and citizen’s preference of alternative transport modes based on a survey in Bundang district, South Korea. Respondents were residents and employees who live or work in Bundang city, and were divided into the following areas Pangyo, Jeongjae – Sunae, Migeun – Ori – Jukjeon, and Imae – Yatap – Songnam. The survey was conducted in January 2015 for two weeks, and 753 responses were gathered. By applying the Hedonic Utility approach, the factors which affect the frequency of using NBL were found to be overall customer satisfaction, convenience of access, and the socio economic demographic of the individual. In addition, by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, criteria factors influencing the decision to select alternative transport modes were identified. Those factors, along with the author judgement of alternative transport modes, and their associated criteria and sub-criteria produced a priority list of user preferences regarding their alternative transport mode options. The study found that overall the regular Bundang Subway Line (BL), which was built and operated under a conventional procurement method was selected as the most preferable transport mode due to its cost competitiveness. However, on the sub-criteria level analysis, the NBL has competitiveness on service quality, particularly on journey time. By conducting a sensitivity analysis, the NBL can become the first choice of transport by increasing the NBL’s degree of weight associated with cost by 0,05. This means the NBL would need to reduce either it’s fare cost or transfer fee, or combine those two cost components to reduce the total of the current cost by 25%. In addition, the competitiveness of NBL also could be obtained by increasing NBL convenience through escalating access convenience such as constructing an additional station or providing more access modes. Although these convenience improvements would require a few extra minutes of journey time, the user found this to be acceptable. The findings and policy suggestions can contribute to the next phase of NBL development, showing that consideration should be given to the citizen’s voice. The case study results also contribute to the literature of PPP projects specifically from a user side perspective.

Keywords: public private partnership, customer satisfaction, public transport, new Bundang subway line

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Authors: Maureen Kamau, Gulnaz Mohamoud, Adelaide Lusambili, Njeri Nyanja

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Life expectancy has increased over the last century amongst older individuals, and in particular, those 60 years and over. The World Health Organization estimates that the world's population of persons over 60 years will rise to 22 per cent by the year 2050. Ageing is associated with increasing disability, multiple chronic conditions, and an increase in the use of health services. These multiple chronic conditions are managed with polypharmacy. Polypharmacy has numerous adverse effects including non-adherence, poor compliance to the various medications, reduced appetite, and risk of fall. Studies on polypharmacy and ageing are few and poorly understood especially in low and middle - income countries. The aim of this study was to explore the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of older people towards polypharmacy. A qualitative study of 15 patients aged 60 years and above, taking more than five medications per day were conducted at the Aga Khan University using Semi-structured in-depth interviews. Three interviews were pilot interviews, and data analysis was performed on 12 interviews. Data were analyzed using NVIVO 12 software. A thematic qualitative analysis was carried out guided by Braun and Clarke (2006) framework. Themes identified; - knowledge of their co-morbidities and of the medication that older persons take, sources of information about medicines, and storage of the medication, experiences and attitudes of older patients towards polypharmacy both positive and negative, older peoples beliefs and their coping mechanisms with polypharmacy. The study participants had good knowledge on their multiple co-morbidities, and on the medication they took. The patients had positive attitudes towards medication as it enhanced their health and well-being, and enabled them to perform their activities of daily living. There was a strong belief among older patients that the medications were necessary for their health. All these factors enhanced compliance to the multiple medication. However, some older patients had negative attitudes due to the pill burden, side effects of the medication, and stigma associated with being ill. Cost of healthcare was a concern, with most of the patients interviewed relying on insurance to cover the cost of their medication. Older patients had accepted that the medication they were prescribed were necessary for their health, as it enabled them to complete their activities of daily living. Some concerns about the side effects of the medication arose, and brought about the need for patient education that would ensure that the patients are aware of the medications they take, and potential side effects. The effect that the COVID 19 pandemic had in the healthcare of the older patients was evident by the number of the older patients avoided coming to the hospital during the period of the pandemic. The relationship with the primary care physician and the older patients is an important one, especially in LMICs such as Kenya, as many of the older patients trusted the doctors wholeheartedly to make the best decision about their health and about their medication. Prescription review is important to avoid the use of potentially inappropriate medication.

Keywords: polypharmacy, older patients, multiple chronic conditions, Kenya, Africa, qualitative study, indepth interviews, primary care

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