Search results for: skewed generalized error distribution

Authors: Shuo Lei

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In order to explore the influencing factors of residents' energy consumption and carbon emissions in different types of communities, this paper conducted research on residents' household energy consumption and carbon emissions in different types of communities in Caijia New Town, Chongqing. By calculating the carbon emissions of residents' household energy consumption, we analyze the structure and characteristics of the energy consumption of households in each type of community. At the same time, the key influencing factors affecting the carbon emissions of residents' energy consumption in Caijia New Town are analyzed from both social and spatial perspectives. The results of the study show that: (1) different types of neighborhoods have a clustering and locking effect on different types of resident groups, which makes the distribution of household energy consumption and carbon emissions closely related to the characteristics of the residents; (2) social and spatial factors have an impact on the residents' energy consumption and carbon emissions, and there is a significant difference in the carbon emission levels of different types of neighborhoods. Accordingly, an identification method is proposed to recognize the carbon emissions of Caijia New Town and even Chongqing City, which provides technical reference for the sustainable planning of low-carbon communities.

Keywords: community type, residential energy consumption and carbon emissions, residential differentiation, influencing factors, low-carbon community

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Authors: H. Idmoussi, L. Somoue, O. Ettahiri, A. Makaoui, S. Charib, A. Agouzouk, A. Ben Mhamed, K. Hilmi, A. Errhif

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The study on the composition, abundance, and distribution of phytoplankton was conducted along the Moroccan coast of the Mediterranean Sea (Saiidia - Three Forks Cape) in April 2018. Samples were collected at thirteen stations using Niskin bottles within two layers (surface and deep layers). The identification and enumeration of phytoplankton were carried out according to the Utermöhl method (1958). A total number of 54 phytoplankton species were identified over the entire survey area. Thirty-six species could be found both in the surface and the deep layers while eleven species were observed only in the surface layer and seven in the deep layer. The phytoplankton throughout the study area was dominated by diatoms represented mainly by Nitzschia sp., Pseudonitzschia sp., Chaetoceros sp., Cylindrotheca closterium, Leptocylindrus minimus, Leptocylindrus danicus, Dactyliosolen fragilissimus. Dinoflagellates were dominated by Gymnodinium sp., Scrippsiella sp., Gyrodinium spirale, Noctulica sp, Prorocentrum micans. Euglenophyceae, Silicoflagellates and Raphidophyceae were present in low numbers. Most of the phytoplankton were concentrated in the surface layer, particularly towards the Three Forks Cape (25200 cells·l⁻¹). Shannon species diversity (ranging from 2 and 4 Bits) and evenness index (broadly > 0.7) suggested that phytoplankton community is generally diversified and structured in the studied area.

Keywords: abundance, diversity, Mediterranean Sea, phytoplankton

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Authors: Son Nguyen, Thanh Van, Ly Le

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Ca2+ - dependent calmodulin kinase IIa (CaMKIIa) has recently been found to associate with protein tau missorting and polymerization in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). However, there has yet inhibitors targeting CaMKIIa to investigate the correlation between CaMKIIa activity and protein tau polymer formation. Combining virtual screening and our statistics in binding contribution scoring function (BCSF), we rationally identified potential compounds that bind to specific CaMKIIa active site and specificity-affinity distribution of the ligand within the active site. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we identified structural stability of CaMKIIa and potent inhibitors, and site-directed bonding, separating non-specific and specific molecular interaction features. Despite of variation in confirmation of simulation time, interactions of the potent inhibitors were found to be strongly associated with the unique chemical features extracted from molecular binding poses. In addition, competitive inhibitors within CaMKIIa showed an important molecular recognition pattern toward specific ligand features. Our approach combining virtual screening with BCSF may provide an universally applicable method for precise identification in the discovery of compounds.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, Ca 2+ -dependent calmodulin kinase IIa, protein tau, molecular docking

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Humayun Murshed

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There is growing importance of ‘social enterprise’ among the researchers and policy makers around the globe. Such enterprises have been viewed as alternative means for addressing the concerns relating to financing of corporate enterprises and social empowerment. This, some cases, has led to relatively unrealistic and higher level of expectations among policy makers and the members of the society at large. There is a general perception among different social actors that these enterprises provide universal and magic solution towards employment generation, and thus resulting in eradicating poverty, and ensuring equitable distribution of income and wealth. However, in many cases, these enterprises find a challenging journey in terms of prevailing market structure, socio-political environment, and unrealistic perception and expectations of social participants. This paper is focused on reviewing case studies based on empirical research and information from secondary sources and geared to looking at the challenges that social enterprises face. The research will draw the experience primarily from the developing countries’ perspective by adopting case study methodology. A tentative action plan will be suggested for further review by the policy makers and researchers in this growing arena of discipline. This research will attempt to highlight the myths and realities surrounding the operation of social enterprises.

Keywords: social enterprises, social empowerment, economic development, financing need

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh

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Catchment area of Damodar River, India experiences seasonal rains due to the south-west monsoon every year and depending upon the intensity of the storms, floods occur. During the monsoon season, the rainfall in the area is mainly due to active monsoon conditions. The upstream reach of Damodar river system has five dams store the water for utilization for various purposes viz, irrigation, hydro-power generation, municipal supplies and last but not the least flood moderation. But, in the downstream reach of Damodar River, known as Lower Damodar region, is severely and frequently suffering from flood due to heavy monsoon rainfall and also release from upstream reservoirs. Therefore, an effective flood management study is required to know in depth the nature and extent of flood, water logging, and erosion related problems, affected area, and damages in the Lower Damodar region, by conducting mathematical model study. The design flood or discharge is needed to decide to assign the respective model for getting several scenarios from the simulation runs. The ultimate aim is to achieve a sustainable flood management scheme from the several alternatives. there are various methods for estimating flood discharges to be carried through the rivers and their tributaries for quick drainage from inundated areas due to drainage congestion and excess rainfall. In the present study, the flood frequency analysis is performed to decide the design flood discharge of the study area. This, on the other hand, has limitations in respect of availability of long peak flood data record for determining long type of probability density function correctly. If sufficient past records are available, the maximum flood on a river with a given frequency can safely be determined. The floods of different frequency for the Damodar has been calculated by five candidate distributions i.e., generalized extreme value, extreme value-I, Pearson type III, Log Pearson and normal. Annual peak discharge series are available at Durgapur barrage for the period of 1979 to 2013 (35 years). The available series are subjected to frequency analysis. The primary objective of the flood frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequencies of occurrence through the use of probability distributions. The design flood for return periods of 10, 15 and 25 years return period at Durgapur barrage are estimated by flood frequency method. It is necessary to develop flood hydrographs for the above floods to facilitate the mathematical model studies to find the depth and extent of inundation etc. Null hypothesis that the distributions fit the data at 95% confidence is checked with goodness of fit test, i.e., Chi Square Test. It is revealed from the goodness of fit test that the all five distributions do show a good fit on the sample population and is therefore accepted. However, it is seen that there is considerable variation in the estimation of frequency flood. It is therefore considered prudent to average out the results of these five distributions for required frequencies. The inundated area from past data is well matched using this flood.

Keywords: design discharge, flood frequency, goodness of fit, sustainable flood management

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Authors: Nguyen Van Anh Le, Mafuyu Kitahara

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In several languages, it is widely acknowledged that vowels are longer before voiced consonants than before voiceless ones such as English. However, in Mandarin Chinese, Vietnamese, Japanese, and Korean, the distribution of voiced-voiceless stop contrasts and long-short vowel differences are vastly different from English. The purpose of this study is to determine whether these targeted learners' L2 English production and perception change in terms of vowel duration as a function of stop voicing. The production measurements in the database of Asian learners revealed a distinct effect than the one observed in native speakers. There was no evident vowel lengthening patterns. The results of the perceptual experiment with 24 participants indicated that individuals tended to prefer voiceless stops when preceding vowels were shortened, but there was no statistically significant difference between intermediate, upper-intermediate, and advanced-level learners. However, learners demonstrated distinct perceptual patterns for various vowels and stops. The findings have valuable implications for L2 English speech acquisition. Keywords: voiced/voiceless stops, preceding vowel duration, voiced/voiceless perception, L2 English, L1 Mandarin Chinese, L1 Vietnamese, L1 Japanese, L1 Korean

Keywords: voiced/voiceless stops, preceding vowel duration, voiced/voiceless perception, L2 english

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Authors: Zeina Nasr, Bashar Merheb

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The honey bee is a social insect that had driven the human interest much more than any other organism. Beekeeping practices dated the appearance of Man on earth and now it provides a hobby or a secondary work that contributes to the family revenue and requires a little time engagement and money investment. Honey production is not the only contribution of honey bees to the economy, since honey bees play an important role in the pollination. Bee keeping in Lebanon is an important part of the agricultural economy. However, a growing concern about bees is spreading globally, due to an accelerated decline of bees colonies. This raises the alert to preserve and protect local bee strains against uncontrolled introduction of foreign strains and invasive parasitic species. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers are commonly used in studying genetic variation in the Apis mellifera species. The DraI-COI-COII test is based on the analysis of the intergenic region between the two genes COI and COII. The different honey bee strains differ in the presence or absence of the p sequence and the number of Q sequences present. A. m. syriaca belonging to the lineage Z, is the native honey bee subspecies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Palestine. A. m. syriaca is known for its high defensiveness, even though it has many important advantages. However, commercial breeder strains, such as the Italian (A. m. ligustica), and Carniolan (A. m. carnica) strains, have been introduced by beekeepers and regularly used for honey production. This raises worries about the disappearance of the local subspecies. It is obvious that identifying A. m. syriaca colonies and protecting them against uncontrolled mating with other bee strains is a crucial step to protect and improve the original local strain. This study aims to reveal the existing sub-species of honey bee in Akkar – Lebanon and to assess the influence of introgression on the hybridization of the local strain. This will help to identify areas of pure A.m. syriaca population over this district to be considered in choosing syriaca reserves. We collected samples of bees from different regions of Akkar district in order to perform mtDNA analysis. We determined the restriction fragments length of the intergenic region COI-COII, using the restriction enzyme DraI. The results showed both the C and the Z lineages. Four restriction patterns were identified among the restriction maps of the studied samples. The most abundant mitochondrial lineage is the Z lineage constituting about 60% of the identified samples. Al-Dreib region reported the lowest introgression with foreign mtDNA of 21% making it the most suitable area for a genetic reserve of syriaca in Akkar based on its lowest introgression and suitable environment in addition to the attitude of local beekeepers to conserve the local strain. Finally, this study is the first step in constructing conservation programs for the preservation of the local strain and should be generalized to the whole Lebanese population, consistent with the effort done in neighboring countries.

Keywords: Akkar Lebanon, Apis millefera syriaca, DraI-COI-COII test, mitochondrial DNA

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Authors: Levente Varga, Dávid Deritei, Mária Ercsey-Ravasz, Răzvan Florian, Zsolt I. Lázár, István Papp, Ferenc Járai-Szabó

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One of the major shortcomings of widely used scientometric indicators is that different disciplines cannot be compared with each other. The issue of cross-disciplinary normalization has been long discussed, but even the classification of publications into scientific domains poses problems. Structural properties of citation networks offer new possibilities, however, the large size and constant growth of these networks asks for precaution. Here we present a new tool that in order to perform cross-field normalization of scientometric indicators of individual publications relays on the structural properties of citation networks. Due to the large size of the networks, a systematic procedure for identifying scientific domains based on a local community detection algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is tested with different benchmark and real-world networks. Then, by the use of this algorithm, the mechanism of the scientometric indicator normalization process is shown for a few indicators like the citation number, P-index and a local version of the PageRank indicator. The fat-tail trend of the article indicator distribution enables us to successfully perform the indicator normalization process.

Keywords: citation networks, cross-field normalization, local cluster detection, scientometric indicators

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The outdoor design weather data are usually comprised of multiple meteorological elements for a 24-hour period separately, but the dependency between the elements is not well considered, which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Considering the dependency between the air temperature and global solar radiation, we used the copula approach to model the joint distributions of those two weather elements and suggest a new method of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of air temperature and global solar radiation. In this paper, the 10-year period hourly weather data from 2001 to 2010 in Osaka, Japan, was used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the result shows that the Joe-Frank copula fit for almost all hourly data. According to calculating the simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding probability of air temperature and global solar radiation, the results have shown that the maximum difference in design air temperature and global solar radiation of the day is about 2 degrees Celsius and 30W/m2, respectively.

Keywords: energy conservation, design weather database, HVAC, copula approach

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Authors: Li Guoyou, Zhang Tao, Ji Wenzhan, Huo Liang, Lin Xiqiang, Zhang Nan

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The three dimensional (3D) printing technology has undergone rapid development in the last few years and it is possible to print engineering structures. 3D printing buildings use wastes from constructions, industries and mine tailings as “ink”, and mix it with property improved materials, such as cement, fiber etc. This paper presents a study of the Thermodynamic performance of 3D printed walls using cement and steel slag powder. Analyses the thermal simulation regarding 3D printed walls and solid brick wall by the way of the hot-box methods and the infrared technology, and the results were contrasted with theoretical calculation. The results show that the excellent thermodynamic performance of 3D printed concrete wall made it suitable as the partial materials for self-thermal insulation walls in residential buildings. The thermodynamic performance of 3D printed concrete walls depended on the density of materials, distribution of holes, and the filling materials. Decreasing the density of materials, increasing the number of holes or replacing the filling materials with foamed concrete could improve its thermodynamic performance significantly. The average of heat transfer coefficient and thermal inertia index of 3D printed steel slag powder concrete wall all better than the traditional solid brick wall with a thickness of 240mm.

Keywords: concrete, 3D printed walls, thermodynamic performance, steel slag powder

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Authors: Harminder Kaur, Manpreet Kaur, Akanksha Kapila, Reenu

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Schiff base with general formula H₂L was derived from condensation of o-vanillin and 3-nitro-o-phenylenediamine. This Schiff base was used for the synthesis of organotin(IV) complexes with general formula R₂SnL [R=Phenyl or n-octyl] using equimolar quantities. Elemental analysis UV-Vis, FTIR, and multinuclear spectroscopic techniques (¹H, ¹³C, and ¹¹⁹Sn) NMR were carried out for the characterization of the synthesized complexes. These complexes were coloured and soluble in polar solvents. Computational studies have been performed to obtain the details of the geometry and electronic structures of ligand as well as complexes. Geometry of the ligands and complexes have been optimized at the level of Density Functional Theory with B3LYP/6-311G (d,p) and B3LYP/MPW1PW91 respectively followed by vibrational frequency analysis using Gaussian 09. Observed ¹¹⁹Sn NMR chemical shifts of one of the synthesized complexes showed tetrahedral geometry around Tin atom which is also confirmed by DFT. HOMO-LUMO energy distribution was calculated. FTIR, ¹HNMR and ¹³CNMR spectra were also obtained theoretically using DFT. Further IRC calculations were employed to determine the transition state for the reaction and to get the theoretical information about the reaction pathway. Moreover, molecular docking studies can be explored to ensure the anticancer activity of the newly synthesized organotin(IV) complexes.

Keywords: DFT, molecular docking, organotin(IV) complexes, o-vanillin, 3-nitro-o-phenylenediamine

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Authors: Sabina-Adriana Floria, Marius Gavrilescu, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Neuroevolution is a subfield of artificial intelligence used to solve various problems in different application areas. Specifically, neuroevolution is a technique that applies biologically inspired methods to generate neural network architectures and optimize their parameters automatically. In this paper, we use different biologically inspired optimization algorithms in an ensemble strategy with the aim of training multilayer perceptron neural networks, resulting in regression models used to simulate the industrial chemical process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. In addition, the initial conditions that were taken into account during the design and commissioning of the installation can change over time, which leads to the need to add new mixes to adjust the operating conditions for the desired purpose, e.g., material properties and energy saving. The present approach follows the study by simulation of a process of obtaining bricks from silicone-based materials, i.e., the modeling and optimization of the process. Optimization aims to determine the working conditions that minimize the emissions represented by nitrogen monoxide. We first use a search procedure to find the best values for the parameters of various biologically inspired optimization algorithms. Then, we propose an adaptive ensemble strategy that uses only a subset of the best algorithms identified in the search stage. The adaptive ensemble strategy combines the results of selected algorithms and automatically assigns more processing capacity to the more efficient algorithms. Their efficiency may also vary at different stages of the optimization process. In a given ensemble iteration, the most efficient algorithms aim to maintain good convergence, while the less efficient algorithms can improve population diversity. The proposed adaptive ensemble strategy outperforms the individual optimizers and the non-adaptive ensemble strategy in convergence speed, and the obtained results provide lower error values.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, neuroevolution, ensembles, bricks, emission minimization

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Authors: Souhila Boukli Hacene, Djamila Kherbouche, Abdelhak Chikhaoui

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In this work, we elucidate theoretically the effect of defects and temperature on the performance of the organic bulk heterojunction solar cell (BHJ) P3HT: PCBM. We have studied the influence of their parameters on cell characteristics. For this purpose, we used the effective medium model and the solar cell simulator (SCAPS) to model the characteristics of the solar cell. We also explore the transport of charge carriers in the device. It was assumed that the mixture is lightly p-type doped and that the band gap contains acceptor defects near the HOMO level with a Gaussian distribution of energy states at 100 and 50 meV. We varied defects density between 1012-1017 cm-3, from 1016 cm-3, a total decrease of the photovoltaic characteristics due to the increase of the non-radiative recombination can be noticed. Then we studied the effect of variation of the electron and the hole capture cross-section on the cell’s performance, we noticed that the cell obtains a better efficiency of about 3.6% for an electron capture cross section ≤ 10-15 cm2 and a hole capture cross section ≤ 10-19 cm2. On the other hand, we also varied the temperature between 120K and 400K. We observed that the temperature of the solar cell induces a noticeable effect on its voltage. While the effect of temperature on the solar cell current is negligible.

Keywords: organic solar cell, P3HT:PCBM, defects, temperature, SCAPS

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Authors: Li-Ching Chen

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The case-control design has been widely applied in clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the association between risk factors and a given disease. The retrospective design can be easily implemented and is more economical over prospective studies. To adjust effects for confounding factors, methods such as stratification at the design stage and may be adopted. When some major confounding factors are difficult to be quantified, a matching design provides an opportunity for researchers to control the confounding effects. The matching effects can be parameterized by the intercepts of logistic models and the conditional logistic regression analysis is then adopted. This study demonstrates an information-matrix-based goodness-of-fit statistic to test the validity of the logistic regression model for matched case-control data. The asymptotic null distribution of this proposed test statistic is inferred. It needs neither to employ a simulation to evaluate its critical values nor to partition covariate space. The asymptotic power of this test statistic is also derived. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An example of the real data set is applied to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method as well.

Keywords: conditional logistic model, goodness-of-fit, information matrix, matched case-control studies

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Authors: O. O. Aiyelokun, O. A. Agbede

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Numerical modelling of groundwater flow can be susceptible to calibration errors due to lack of adequate ground-based hydro-metrological stations in river basins. Groundwater resources management in Southwest Nigeria is currently challenged by overexploitation, lack of planning and monitoring, urbanization and climate change; hence to adopt models as decision support tools for sustainable management of groundwater; they must be adequately calibrated. Since river basins in Southwest Nigeria are characterized by missing data, and lack of adequate ground-based hydro-meteorological stations; the need for adopting satellite-based data for constructing distributed models is crucial. This study seeks to evaluate the suitability of satellite-based data as substitute for ground-based, for computing boundary conditions; by determining if ground and satellite based meteorological data fit well in Ogun and Oshun River basins. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset was firstly obtained in daily form and converted to monthly form for the period of 432 months (January 1979 to June, 2014). Afterwards, ground-based meteorological data for Ikeja (1981-2010), Abeokuta (1983-2010), and Oshogbo (1981-2010) were compared with CFSR data using Goodness of Fit (GOF) statistics. The study revealed that based on mean absolute error (MEA), coefficient of correlation, (r) and coefficient of determination (R²); all meteorological variables except wind speed fit well. It was further revealed that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall had high range of index of agreement (d) and ratio of standard deviation (rSD), implying that CFSR dataset could be used to compute boundary conditions such as groundwater recharge and potential evapotranspiration. The study concluded that satellite-based data such as the CFSR should be used as input when constructing groundwater flow models in river basins in Southwest Nigeria, where majority of the river basins are partially gaged and characterized with long missing hydro-metrological data.

Keywords: boundary condition, goodness of fit, groundwater, satellite-based data

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Authors: Hifzur Ansary

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The aim and scope of the present research are to delve into the form of geminates and the process of gemination with special reference to Indic Languages. This work presents the results of a cross-linguistic investigation of word-medial geminate consonants. This study is a theoretical as well as experimental, that is, it is based not only on impressionistic data from Indic languages but also on an instrumental analysis of the data. The primary data have been collected from the native speakers. The secondary data have been collected from printed materials such as journals, grammar books and other published articles. The observations made in this study have been checked with a number of educated native speakers of Bangla and Telugu. The study focuses on geminates and gemination in Bangla (Indo-Aryan Language Family) and Telugu (Dravidian Language family) exhaustively. Thus this study also attempts to posit the valid geminates in Bangali and Telugu and provides an account of gemination in these languages. It also makes a comparison of singletons and geminated consonants. It describes the distribution of geminate phonemes and non-geminate phonemes of Bangla and Telugu. The present research would also investigate the vowel lengthening in Bangla with respect to gemination. The study also explains how gemination processes present in Indian Languages are transferred to Indian English.

Keywords: geminate consonant, singleton-geminate contrast, different types of assimilation, gemination derives from borrowed words

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Rana Th. A. Al-Rubaye, Arthur A. Garforth

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This work details the generation of thin films of structured zeolite catalysts (ZSM–5 and Y) onto the surface of a metal substrate (FeCrAlloy) using in-situ hydrothermal synthesis. In addition, the zeolite Y is post-synthetically modified by acidified ammonium ion exchange to generate US-Y. Finally the catalytic activity of the structured ZSM-5 catalyst films (Si/Al = 11, thickness 146 µm) and structured US–Y catalyst film (Si/Al = 8, thickness 23µm) were compared with the pelleted powder form of ZSM–5 and USY catalysts of similar Si/Al ratios. The structured catalyst films have been characterised using a range of techniques, including X-ray diffraction (XRD), Electron microscopy (SEM), Energy Dispersive X–ray analysis (EDX) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA). The transition from oxide-on-alloy wires to hydrothermally synthesised uniformly zeolite coated surfaces was followed using SEM and XRD. In addition, the robustness of the prepared coating was confirmed by subjecting these to thermal cycling (ambient to 550°C). The cracking of n–heptane over the pellets and structured catalysts for both ZSM–5 and Y zeolite showed very similar product selectivities for similar amounts of catalyst with an apparent activation energy of around 60 kJ mol-1. This paper demonstrates that structured catalysts can be manufactured with excellent zeolite adherence and when suitably activated/modified give comparable cracking results to the pelleted powder forms. These structured catalysts will improve temperature distribution in highly exothermic and endothermic catalysed processes.

Keywords: FeCrAlloy, structured catalyst, zeolite Y, zeolite ZSM-5

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Authors: Amani Ashari, Julia Omar, Arif Hashim, Shahrul Hamid

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Apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene polymorphism has influence on serum lipids which relates to cardiovascular risk. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency distribution of APOE alleles among Malaysian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) patients with and without coronary artery disease (CAD) and their association with serum lipid profiles. A total of 115 patients were recruited in which 78 patients had Type 2 DM without CAD and 37 patients had Type 2 DM with CAD. The APOE polymorphism was detected by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). The APOE ɛ3 allele was the most common one in both groups. There was no significant association between the APOE genotypes and the CAD status in Type 2 DM using Pearson χ² test. Further analysis indicated there were no significant differences in all lipid parameters between E2, E3 and E4 subgroups in both groups. The study showed that the E4 allele carriers of Type 2 DM with CAD patients had higher LDL-C level and lower HDL-C level compared to the other allele carriers. However, analyses showed these levels were not statistically different. The study also showed that the Type 2 DM with CAD group with E2 allele had higher triglyceride (TG). In conclusion, further study with larger sample size is needed to confirm role of E4 as a marker of CAD among Type 2 DM patients in Malaysian population.

Keywords: Apolipoprotein E, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, lipids

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Authors: Jyh-Cherng Gu, Ming-Ta Yang, Chao-Fong Yan, Hsin-Yung Chung, Yung-Ruei Chang, Yih-Der Lee, Chen-Min Chan, Chia-Hao Hsu

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There are a number of distributed generations (DGs) installed in microgrid, which may have diverse path and direction of power flow or fault current. The overcurrent protection scheme for the traditional radial type distribution system will no longer meet the needs of microgrid protection. Integrating the intelligent electronic device (IED) and a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) with IEC 61850 communication protocol, the paper proposes a microgrid protection management system (MPMS) to protect power system from the fault. In the proposed method, the MPMS performs logic programming of each IED to coordinate their tripping sequence. The GOOSE message defined in IEC 61850 is used as the transmission information medium among IEDs. Moreover, to cope with the difference in fault current of microgrid between grid-connected mode and islanded mode, the proposed MPMS applies the group setting feature of IED to protect system and robust adaptability. Once the microgrid topology varies, the MPMS will recalculate the fault current and update the group setting of IED. Provided there is a fault, IEDs will isolate the fault at once. Finally, the Matlab/Simulink and Elipse Power Studio software are used to simulate and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Keywords: IEC 61850, IED, group Setting, microgrid

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Authors: Azadeh Golshan, Craig Evans, Phillip Geary, Abigail Morrow, Zoe Rogers, Marcel Maeder

Abstract:

22 physicochemical variables have been determined in water samples collected weekly from January to December in 2013 from three sampling stations located within a major drinking water reservoir. Classical Multivariate Curve Resolution Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) analysis was used to investigate the environmental factors associated with the physico-chemical variability of the water samples at each of the sampling stations. Matrix augmentation MCR-ALS (MA-MCR-ALS) was also applied, and the two sets of results were compared for interpretative clarity. Links between these factors, reservoir inflows and catchment land-uses were investigated and interpreted in relation to chemical composition of the water and their resolved geographical distribution profiles. The results suggested that the major factors affecting reservoir water quality were those associated with agricultural runoff, with evidence of influence on algal photosynthesis within the water column. Water quality variability within the reservoir was also found to be strongly linked to physical parameters such as water temperature and the occurrence of thermal stratification. The two methods applied (MCR-ALS and MA-MCR-ALS) led to similar conclusions; however, MA-MCR-ALS appeared to provide results more amenable to interpretation of temporal and geological variation than those obtained through classical MCR-ALS.

Keywords: drinking water reservoir, multivariate analysis, physico-chemical parameters, water quality

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Authors: A. Selmi

Abstract:

Free vibration analysis of homogenous and axially functionally graded simply supported beams within the context of Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is presented in this paper. The material properties of the beams are assumed to obey the linear law distribution. The effective elastic modulus of the composite was predicted by using the rule of mixture. Here, the complexities which appear in solving differential equation of transverse vibration of composite beams which limit the analytical solution to some special cases are overcome using a relatively new approach called the Differential Transformation Method. This technique is applied for solving differential equation of transverse vibration of axially functionally graded beams. Natural frequencies and corresponding normalized mode shapes are calculated for different Young’s modulus ratios. MATLAB code is designed to solve the transformed differential equation of the beam. Comparison of the present results with the exact solutions proves the effectiveness, the accuracy, the simplicity, and computational stability of the differential transformation method. The effect of the Young’s modulus ratio on the normalized natural frequencies and mode shapes is found to be very important.

Keywords: differential transformation method, functionally graded material, mode shape, natural frequency

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Authors: Kazushige Wada, Mayuko Ueda

Abstract:

In the present study, we reanalyzed lapse errors in the last phase of a job, by re-counting near lapse errors and increasing the number of participants. We also examined the results of this study from the perspective of prospective memory (PM), which concerns future actions. This study was designed to investigate whether perceiving the importance of PM tasks caused lapse errors in the last phase of a job and to determine if such errors could be explained from the perspective of PM processing. Participants (N = 34) conducted a computerized clicking task, in which they clicked on 10 figures that they had learned in advance in 8 blocks of 10 trials. Participants were requested to click the check box in the start display of a block and to click the checking off box in the finishing display. This task was a PM task. As a measure of PM performance, we counted the number of omission errors caused by forgetting to check off in the finishing display, which was defined as a lapse error. The perceived importance was manipulated by different instructions. Half the participants in the highly important task condition were instructed that checking off was very important, because equipment would be overloaded if it were not done. The other half in the not important task condition was instructed only about the location and procedure for checking off. Furthermore, we controlled workload and the emotion of surprise to confirm the effect of demand capacity and attention. To manipulate emotions during the clicking task, we suddenly presented a photo of a traffic accident and the sound of a skidding car followed by an explosion. Workload was manipulated by requesting participants to press the 0 key in response to a beep. Results indicated too few forgetting induced lapse errors to be analyzed. However, there was a weak main effect of the perceived importance of the check task, in which the mouse moved to the “END” button before moving to the check box in the finishing display. Especially, the highly important task group showed more such near lapse errors, than the not important task group. Neither surprise, nor workload affected the occurrence of near lapse errors. These results imply that high perceived importance of PM tasks impair task performance. On the basis of the multiprocess framework of PM theory, we have suggested that PM task performance in this experiment relied not on monitoring PM tasks, but on spontaneous retrieving.

Keywords: prospective memory, perceived importance, lapse errors, multi process framework of prospective memory.

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Authors: Sheila R. Pai, N. K. Subbalakshmi, C. Vidya

Abstract:

Background: Accumulating evidence from prospective studies suggests an increased risk of type 2 diabetes associated with sleep deprivation and sleep disorders. Shift work by disrupting the circadian rhythm, could possibly cause metabolic disturbances. Objective: To investigate the influence of shift work on fasting blood glucose in hospital workers population. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study including 90 night shift workers (study group) and 90 day workers (controls) drawn from paramedical personnel. Night shift work was on a forward rotation basis, with an average of one night shift every 4 weeks. Each night shift rotation was for a period of 7 days, with a total of 8 hours of shift work per night. In the entire subjects body mass index (BMI) and fasting blood sugar (FBS) was measured. Statistical analysis included unpaired t test, Mann-Whitney ‘U’ test and Chi-square test. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Result: The study and control groups were comparable with regard to age, sex distribution and duration of employment. FBS was higher in study group compared to controls (p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in BMI between control and study group. Conclusion: Shift work may adversely influence glucose metabolism.

Keywords: shift work, fasting blood sugar, sleep disturbances, diabetes

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

Abstract:

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Hana Gebremariam Liliso

Abstract:

This study investigates the factors contributing to the deterioration of thick asphalt pavements, such as rutting and cracking. We focus on the combined influence of traffic loads and pavement structure. This study uses a three-dimensional finite element model with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion to analyze the stress levels near the pavement's surface under realistic conditions. Our model considers various factors, including tire-pavement contact stresses, asphalt properties, moving loads, and dynamic analysis. This research suggests that cracking tends to occur between dual tires. Some key discoveries include the risk of cracking increases as temperatures rise; surface cracking at high temperatures is associated with distortional deformation; using a uniform contact stress distribution underestimates the risk of failure compared to realistic three-dimensional tire contact stress, particularly at high temperatures; the risk of failure is higher near the surface when there is a negative temperature gradient in the asphalt layer; and debonding beneath the surface layer leads to increased shear stress and premature failure around the interface.

Keywords: asphalt pavement, surface failure, 3d finite element model, multiaxial stress states, Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion

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Authors: Ali Babaei

Abstract:

There is a worldwide growing tendency toward construction of infrastructures with the possibility of private sector participation instead of free exploitation of public infrastructures. The construction and development of roads through private sector participation is performed by different countries because of appropriate results and benefits such as compensation of public budget deficit in road construction and maintenance and responding to traffic growth (demand). Toll is the most definite form of budget provision in road development. There are two issues in the toll rate assignment: A. costing of transport, B. Cost allocation and distribution of cost between different types of vehicles as each vehicle pay its own share. There can be different goals in toll collection and its extent is variable according to the strategy of toll collection. Costing principles in different countries are based on inclusion of the whole transport and not peculiar to the toll roads. For example, fuel tax policy functions where the road network users pay transportation cost (not just users of toll road). Whereas transportation infrastructures in Iran are free, these methods are not applicable. In Iran, different toll freeways have built by public investment and government provides participation in the road construction through encouragement of financial institutions. In this paper, the existing policies about the toll roads are studied and then the appropriate method of costing and cost allocation to different vehicles is introduced.

Keywords: toll allocation, road pricing, transportation, financial and industrial systems

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Authors: Gerges Samaan Henin Abdalla

Abstract:

Ultra-secured methods of banking services have been introduced to the customer, such as online banking. Banks have begun to consider electronic banking (e-banking) as a way to replace some traditional branch functions by using the Internet as a distribution channel. Some consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. Not only is it time consuming, but it is also a repeatable activity with a certain frequency. To solve this problem, the concept of account aggregation was added as a solution. Account consolidation in e-banking as a form of electronic banking appears to build a stronger relationship with customers. An account linking service is generally referred to as a service that allows customers to manage their bank accounts held at different institutions via a common online banking platform that places a high priority on security and data protection. Consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. The article provides an overview of the account aggregation approach in e-banking as a new service in the area of e-banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observation, risk banking technology, Internet banks, modernization of banks, banks, account aggregation, security, enterprise development

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Authors: Samuel Olajide Babawale, O. O. Ogunkoya

Abstract:

The study mapped selected wells in Inisa town, Osun state, in the guinea savanna region of southwest Nigeria, and determined the water quality considering certain elements. It also assessed the variation in the elevation of the water table surface to depth of the wells in the months of August and November. This is with a view to determine the level of contamination of the water with respect to land use and anthropogenic activities, and also to determine the variation that occurs in the quantity of well water in the rainy season and the start of the dry season. Results show a random pattern of the distribution of the mapped wells and shows that there is a shallow water table in the study area. The temporal changes in the elevation show that there are no significant variations in the depth of the water table surface over the period of study implying that there is a sufficient amount of water available to the town all year round. It also shows a high concentration of sodium in the water sample analyzed compared to other elements that were considered, which include iron, copper, calcium, and lead. This is attributed majorly to anthropogenic activities through the disposal of waste in landfill sites. There is a low concentration of lead which is a good indication of a reduced level of pollution.

Keywords: anthropogenic activities, land use, temporal changes, water quality

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