Search results for: simplified conceptual models

Authors: Pham Quang Huy

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State budget is considered as an effective tool for controlling, adjusting and regulating the market economy of any countries. To ensure that the activities of the state in the fields of politics, economy and society has been efficiency, it requires major sources of certain budget. These financial funds are formed from tax revenues and tax revenues beyond. Therefore, the Governments need to have an accounting regime to manage the receipt, expenditure which are suitable for recording a full range of items. From that, it can help to increase the transparency and accountability in budget system. One of the main requirements in Vietnamese policies is to improve that accounting system of revenues and expenditures which can provide many reports to meet the information required of government and users, as well as directions to the trends of international standards requirements. By using quantitative research methods and analytical models to exploring factors, the main purpose of this article is to identify the factors affecting budget accounting and providing some direction for Vietnamese public sector in the future. The results indicated that Vietnam budget accounting has been impacted by seven factors and aims to implement three main orientations in the public sector units.

Keywords: state budget, accounting, IPSAS, budget management, government, public sector

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Authors: K.Narasimhulu, Y. Pydi Setty

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The objective of this present study is the optimization of process parameters in biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions by Pseudomonas putida using Response Surface Methodology in a Packed bed bioreactor. The experimental data were also tested with theoretical models to find the best fit model. The present paper elucidates RSM as an efficient approach for predictive model building and optimization of Ni(II) and Cd(II) ions using Pseudomonas putida. In packed bed biosorption studies, comparison of the breakthrough curves of Ni(II) and Cd(II) for Agar immobilized and PAA immobilized Pseudomonas putida at optimum conditions of flow rate of 300 mL/h, initial metal ion concentration of 100 mg/L and bed height of 20 cm with weight of biosorbent of 12 g, it was found that the Agar immobilized Pseudomonas putida showed maximum percent biosorption and bed saturation occurred at 20 minutes. Optimization results of Ni(II) and Cd(II) by Pseudomonas putida from the Design Expert software were obtained as bed height of 19.93 cm, initial metal ion concentration of 103.85 mg/L, and flow rate of 310.57 mL/h. The percent biosorption of Ni(II) and Cd(II) is 87.2% and 88.2% respectively. The predicted optimized parameters are in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: packed bed bioreactor, response surface mthodology, pseudomonas putida, biosorption, waste water

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Authors: Carlos Gonzalez, Neil Slatcher, Marcus Properzi, Kan Seah

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In many underground mining operations, shotcrete is used for permanent rock support. Shotcrete thickness is a critical measure of the success of this process. 3D Laser Mapping, in conjunction with Jetcrete, has developed a 3D laser scanning system specifically for measuring the thickness of shotcrete. The system is mounted on the shotcrete spraying machine and measures the rock faces before and after spraying. The calculated difference between the two 3D surface models is measured as the thickness of the sprayed concrete. Typical work patterns for the shotcrete process required a rapid and automatic system. The scanning takes place immediately before and after the application of the shotcrete so no convergence takes place in the interval between scans. Automatic alignment of scans without targets was implemented which allows for the possibility of movement of the spraying machine between scans. Case studies are presented where accuracy tests are undertaken and automatic audit reports are calculated. The use of 3D imaging data for the calculation of shotcrete thickness is an important tool for geotechnical engineers and contract managers, and this could become the new state-of-the-art methodology for the mining industry.

Keywords: 3D imaging, shotcrete, surface model, tunnel stability

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Authors: Wiwat Kittinaraporn, Napat Harnpornchai, Sutja Boonyachut

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This paper deals with the application of a novel neural network technique, so-called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The objective of this study is to explore the variable and parameter of forecasting factors in the construction industry to build up forecasting model for construction quantity in Thailand. The scope of the research is to study the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. There are 44 sets of yearly data available, ranging from 1965 to 2009. The correlation between economic indicators and construction demand with the lag of one year was developed by Apichat Buakla. The selected variables are used to develop SVM models to forecast the non-residential construction quantity in Thailand. The parameters are selected by using ten-fold cross-validation method. The results are indicated in term of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE value for the non-residential construction quantity predicted by Epsilon-SVR in corporation with Radial Basis Function (RBF) of kernel function type is 5.90. Analysis of the experimental results show that the support vector machine modelling technique can be applied to forecast construction quantity time series which is useful for decision planning and management purpose.

Keywords: forecasting, non-residential, construction, support vector machines

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Authors: Tejeet Singh, Ishvneet Singh, Vinay Gupta

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The present study focussed on carrying out the creep analysis in an isotropic thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessel composed of aluminium matrix reinforced with silicon-carbide in particulate form. The creep behaviour of the composite material has been described by the threshold stress based creep law. The value of stress exponent appearing in the creep law was selected as 3, 5 and 8. The constitutive equations were developed using well known von-Mises yield criteria. Models were developed to find out the distributions of creep stresses and strain rate in thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessels under internal pressure. In order to obtain the stress distributions in the cylinder, the equilibrium equation of the continuum mechanics and the constitutive equations are solved together. It was observed that the radial stress, tangential stress and axial stress increases along with the radial distance. The cross-over was also obtained almost at the middle region of cylindrical vessel for tangential and axial stress for different values of stress exponent. The strain rates were also decreasing in nature along the entire radius.

Keywords: creep, composite, cylindrical vessel, internal pressure

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Authors: Rohini Sharma, Chandan Kumar Sahoo, Rama Krishna Gupta Potnuru

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Strong competitive forces and requirements to achieve efficiency are forcing the organizations to realize the necessity and inevitability of change. What's more, the trend does not appear to be abating. Researchers have estimated that about two thirds of change project fails. Empirical evidences further shows that organizations invest significantly in the planned change but people side is accounted for in a token or instrumental way, which is identified as one of the important reason, why change endeavours fail. However, whatever be the reason for change, organizational change readiness must be gauged prior to the institutionalization of organizational change. Hence, in this study the influence of employee voice and employee involvement on organizational change readiness via commitment-to-change is examined, as it is an area yet to be extensively studied. Also, though a recent study has investigated the interrelationship between leadership, organizational change readiness and commitment to change, our study further examined these constructs in relation with employee voice and employee involvement that plays a consequential role for organizational change readiness. Further, integrated conceptual model weaving varied concepts relating to organizational readiness with focus on commitment to change as mediator was found to be an area, which required more theorizing and empirical validation, and this study rooted in an Indian public sector organization is a step in this direction. Data for the study were collected through a survey among employees of Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP), a unit of Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL); the first integrated Steel Plant in the public sector in India, for which stratified random sampling method was adopted. The schedule was distributed to around 700 employees, out of which 516 complete responses were obtained. The pre-validated scales were used for the study. All the variables in the study were measured on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree (1)” to “strongly agree (5)”. Structural equation modeling (SEM) using AMOS 22 was used to examine the hypothesized model, which offers a simultaneous test of an entire system of variables in a model. The study results shows that inter-relationship between employee voice and commitment-to-change, employee involvement and commitment-to-change and commitment-to-change and organizational change readiness were significant. To test the mediation hypotheses, Baron and Kenny’s technique was used. Examination of direct and mediated effect of mediators confirmed that commitment-to-change partially mediated the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. Furthermore, study results also affirmed that commitment-to-change does not mediate the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. The empirical exploration therefore establishes that it is important to harness employee’s valuable suggestions regarding change for building organizational change readiness. Regarding employee involvement, it was found that sharing information and involving people in decision-making, leads to a creation of participative climate, which educes employee commitment during change and commitment-to-change further, fosters organizational change readiness.

Keywords: commitment-to-change, change management, employee voice, employee involvement, organizational change readiness

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Konstantinos Kottikas, Vlasis Stathakopoulos, Ioannis G. Theodorakis, Efthymia Kottika

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Theorists have argued that Market Orientation is comprised of two facets, namely the Market Driven and the Market Driving components. The present theoretical paper centers on the latter, which to date has been notably under-investigated. The term Market Driving (MD) pertains to influencing the structure of the market, or the behavior of market players in a direction that enhances the competitive edge of the firm. Presently, the main objectives of the paper are the specification of key antecedents and outcomes of Market Driving behavior. Market Driving firms behave proactively, by leading their customers and changing the rules of the game rather than by responding passively to them. Leading scholars were the first to conceptually conceive the notion, followed by some qualitative studies and a limited number of quantitative publications. However, recently, academicians noted that research on the topic remains limited, expressing a strong necessity for further insights. Concerning the key antecedents, top management’s Transformational Leadership (i.e. the form of leadership which influences organizational members by aligning their values, goals and aspirations to facilitate value-consistent behaviors) is one of the key drivers of MD behavior. Moreover, scholars have linked the MD concept with Entrepreneurship. Finally, the role that Employee’s Creativity plays in the development of MD behavior has been theoretically exemplified by a stream of literature. With respect to the key outcomes, it has been demonstrated that MD Behavior positively triggers firm Performance, while theorists argue that it empowers the Competitive Advantage of the firm. Likewise, researchers explicate that MD Behavior produces Radical Innovation. In order to test the robustness of the proposed theoretical framework, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods is proposed. In particular, the conduction of in-depth interviews with distinguished executives and academicians, accompanied with a large scale quantitative survey will be employed, in order to triangulate the empirical findings. Given that it triggers overall firm’s success, the MD concept is of high importance to managers. Managers can become aware that passively reacting to market conditions is no longer sufficient. On the contrary, behaving proactively, leading the market, and shaping its status quo are new innovative approaches that lead to a paramount competitive posture and Innovation outcomes. This study also exemplifies that managers can foster MD Behavior through Transformational Leadership, Entrepreneurship and recruitment of Creative Employees. To date, the majority of the publications on Market Orientation is unilaterally directed towards the responsive (i.e. the Market Driven) component. The present paper further builds on scholars’ exhortations, and investigates the Market Driving facet, ultimately aspiring to conceptually integrate the somehow fragmented scientific findings, in a holistic framework.

Keywords: entrepreneurial orientation, market driving behavior, market orientation

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Authors: Nicola Colaninno, Eugenio Morello

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The urban environment affects local-to-global climate and, in turn, suffers global warming phenomena, with worrying impacts on human well-being, health, social and economic activities. Physic-morphological features of the built-up space affect urban air temperature, locally, causing the urban environment to be warmer compared to surrounding rural. This occurrence, typically known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI), is normally assessed by means of air temperature from fixed weather stations and/or traverse observations or based on remotely sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST). The information provided by ground weather stations is key for assessing local air temperature. However, the spatial coverage is normally limited due to low density and uneven distribution of the stations. Although different interpolation techniques such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are used to estimate air temperature from observed points, such an approach may not effectively reflect the real climatic conditions of an interpolated point. Quantifying local UHI for extensive areas based on weather stations’ observations only is not practicable. Alternatively, the use of thermal remote sensing has been widely investigated based on LST. Data from Landsat, ASTER, or MODIS have been extensively used. Indeed, LST has an indirect but significant influence on air temperatures. However, high-resolution near-surface air temperature (NSAT) is currently difficult to retrieve. Here we have experimented Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) as an effective approach to enable NSAT estimation by accounting for spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon. The model combines on-site measurements of air temperature, from fixed weather stations and satellite-derived LST. The approach is structured upon two main steps. First, a GWR model has been set to estimate NSAT at low resolution, by combining air temperature from discrete observations retrieved by weather stations (dependent variable) and the LST from satellite observations (predictor). At this step, MODIS data, from Terra satellite, at 1 kilometer of spatial resolution have been employed. Two time periods are considered according to satellite revisit period, i.e. 10:30 am and 9:30 pm. Afterward, the results have been downscaled at 30 meters of spatial resolution by setting a GWR model between the previously retrieved near-surface air temperature (dependent variable), the multispectral information as provided by the Landsat mission, in particular the albedo, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), both at 30 meters. Albedo and DEM are now the predictors. The area under investigation is the Metropolitan City of Milan, which covers an area of approximately 1,575 km2 and encompasses a population of over 3 million inhabitants. Both models, low- (1 km) and high-resolution (30 meters), have been validated according to a cross-validation that relies on indicators such as R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). All the employed indicators give evidence of highly efficient models. In addition, an alternative network of weather stations, available for the City of Milano only, has been employed for testing the accuracy of the predicted temperatures, giving and RMSE of 0.6 and 0.7 for daytime and night-time, respectively.

Keywords: urban climate, urban heat island, geographically weighted regression, remote sensing

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Authors: Ebenezer Joseph

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Chess is a useful tool to enhance general and specific cognitive functioning in children. The present study aims to assess the impact of chess on cognitive in children and to measure the differential impact of socio-demographic factors like age and gender of the child on the effectiveness of the chess intervention.This research study used an experimental design to study the impact of the Training in Chess on the intelligence of children. The Pre-test Post-test Control Group Design was utilized. The research design involved two groups of children: an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group consisted of children who participated in the one-year Chess Training Intervention, while the control group participated in extra-curricular activities in school. The main independent variable was training in chess. Other independent variables were gender and age of the child. The dependent variable was the cognitive functioning of the child (as measured by IQ, working memory index, processing speed index, perceptual reasoning index, verbal comprehension index, numerical reasoning, verbal reasoning, non-verbal reasoning, social intelligence, language, conceptual thinking, memory, visual motor and creativity). The sample consisted of 200 children studying in Government and Private schools. Random sampling was utilized. The sample included both boys and girls falling in the age range 6 to 16 years. The experimental group consisted of 100 children (50 from Government schools and 50 from Private schools) with an equal representation of boys and girls. The control group similarly consisted of 100 children. The dependent variables were assessed using Binet-Kamat Test of Intelligence, Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children - IV (India) and Wallach Kogan Creativity Test. The training methodology comprised Winning Moves Chess Learning Program - Episodes 1–22, lectures with the demonstration board, on-the-board playing and training, chess exercise through workbooks (Chess school 1A, Chess school 2, and tactics) and working with chess software. Further students games were mapped using chess software and the brain patterns of the child were understood. They were taught the ideas behind chess openings and exposure to classical games were also given. The children participated in mock as well as regular tournaments. Preliminary analysis carried out using independent t tests with 50 children indicates that chess training has led to significant increases in the intelligent quotient. Children in the experimental group have shown significant increases in composite scores like working memory and perceptual reasoning. Chess training has significantly enhanced the total creativity scores, line drawing and pattern meaning subscale scores. Systematically learning chess as part of school activities appears to have a broad spectrum of positive outcomes.

Keywords: chess, intelligence, creativity, children

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Authors: J.Zambrano Nájera, M.Gómez Valentín

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Increases in urbanization during XX century, have brought as one major problem the increased of sediment production. Hydraulic erosion is one of the major causes of increasing of sediments in small urban catchments. Such increments in sediment yielding in header urban catchments can caused obstruction of drainage systems, making impossible to capture urban runoff, increasing runoff volumes and thus exacerbating problems of urban flooding. For these reasons, it is more and more important to study of sediment production in urban watershed for properly analyze and solve problems associated to sediments. The study of sediments production has improved with the use of mathematical modeling. For that reason, it is proposed a new physically based model applicable to small header urban watersheds that includes the advantages of distributed physically base models, but with more realistic data requirements. Additionally, in this paper the model proposed is compared with a lumped model, reviewing the results, the advantages and disadvantages between the both of them.

Keywords: erosion, hydrologic modeling, urban runoff, sediment modeling, sediment yielding, urban planning

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Authors: Medan Isaeva, Anna Degtyareva

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Context: Biliary atresia is a common reason for liver transplants in children, and the Kasai procedure can potentially be successful in avoiding the need for transplantation. However, it is important to identify factors that influence surgical outcomes in order to optimize treatment and improve patient outcomes. Research aim: The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models to assess the outcomes of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Methodology: This retrospective study analyzed data from 166 children with biliary atresia who underwent the Kasai procedure between 2002 and 2021. The effectiveness of the operation was assessed based on specific criteria, including post-operative stool color, jaundice reduction, and bilirubin levels. The study involved a comparative analysis of various parameters, such as gestational age, birth weight, age at operation, physical development, liver and spleen sizes, and laboratory values including bilirubin, ALT, AST, and others, measured pre- and post-operation. Ultrasonographic evaluations were also conducted pre-operation, assessing the hepatobiliary system and related quantitative parameters. The study was carried out by two experienced specialists in pediatric hepatology. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were used as the primary statistical methods. Findings: The study identified several statistically significant predictors of a successful Kasai procedure, including the presence of the gallbladder and levels of cholesterol and direct bilirubin post-operation. A detectable gallbladder was associated with a higher probability of surgical success, while elevated post-operative cholesterol and direct bilirubin levels were indicative of a reduced chance of positive outcomes. Theoretical importance: The findings of this study contribute to the optimization of treatment strategies for children with biliary atresia undergoing the Kasai procedure. By identifying early predictive signs of success, clinicians can modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Data collection and analysis procedures: Data for this analysis were obtained from the health records of patients who received the Kasai procedure. Comparative analysis and multifactorial logistic regression were employed to analyze the data and identify significant predictors. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of identifying predictive factors for the success of the Kasai procedure in children with biliary atresia. Conclusion: The developed prognostic models serve as valuable tools for early detection of patients who are less likely to benefit from the Kasai procedure. This enables clinicians to modify treatment plans and manage patient care more effectively and proactively. Potential limitations of the study: The study has several limitations. Its retrospective nature may introduce biases and inconsistencies in data collection. Being single centered, the results might not be generalizable to wider populations due to variations in surgical and postoperative practices. Also, other potential influencing factors beyond the clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic parameters considered in this study were not explored, which could affect the outcomes of the Kasai operation. Future studies could benefit from including a broader range of factors.

Keywords: biliary atresia, kasai operation, prognostic model, native liver survival

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Authors: Arash Najmaei, Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

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In this article, we endeavor to explore how a new business model comes into existence in the Australian cloud-computing eco-system. Findings from multiple case study methodology reveal that to develop a business model new ventures adopt a three-phase approach. In the first phase, labelled as business model ideation (BMID) various ideas for a viable business model are generated from both internal and external networks of the entrepreneurial team and the most viable one is chosen. Strategic consensus and commitment are generated in the second phase. This phase is a business modelling strategic action phase. We labelled this phase as business model strategic commitment (BMSC) because through commitment and the subsequent actions of executives resources are pooled, coordinated and allocated to the business model. Three complementary sets of resources shape the business model: managerial (MnRs), marketing (MRs) and technological resources (TRs). The third phase is the market-test phase where the business model is reified through the delivery of the intended value to customers and conversion of revenue into profit. We labelled this phase business model actualization (BMAC). Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings will be discussed and several directions for future research will be illuminated.

Keywords: entrepreneur business model, high-tech venture, resources, conversion of revenue

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Authors: Giulio Mangano, Alberto De Marco, Giovanni Zenezini

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The concept of City Logistics (CL) has emerged to improve the impacts of last mile freight distribution in urban areas. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model exploring the dynamics of the diffusion of a ICT platform for CL management across different populations is proposed. For the development of the model two sources have been used. On the one hand, the major diffusion variables and feedback loops are derived from a literature review of existing diffusion models. On the other hand, the parameters are represented by the value propositions delivered by the platform as a response to some of the users’ needs. To extract the most important value propositions the Business Model Canvas approach has been used. Such approach in fact focuses on understanding how a company can create value for her target customers. These variables and parameters are thus translated into a SD diffusion model with three different populations namely municipalities, logistics service providers, and own account carriers. Results show that, the three populations under analysis fully adopt the platform within the simulation time frame, highlighting a strong demand by different stakeholders for CL projects aiming at carrying out more efficient urban logistics operations.

Keywords: city logistics, simulation, system dynamics, business model

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Hassan Baji, Wei Yang

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Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete structures is a major problem worldwide. The volume expansion of corrosion products causes concrete cover cracking, which could lead to delamination of concrete cover. The time to cover cracking plays a key role to the assessment of serviceability of reinforced concrete structures subjected to corrosion. Many analytical, numerical, and empirical models have been developed to predict the time to cracking initiation due to corrosion. In this study, a numerical model based on finite element modeling of corrosion-induced cracking process is used. In order to predict the service life based on time to cover initiation, the numerical approach is coupled with a probabilistic procedure. In this procedure, all the influential factors affecting time to cover cracking are modeled as random variables. The results show that the time to cover cracking is highly variables. It is also shown that rust product expansion ratio and the size of more porous concrete zone around the rebar are the most influential factors in predicting service life of corrosion-affected structures.

Keywords: corrosion, crack width, probabilistic, service life

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Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

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Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

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Authors: Kamal Upadhyay, Zhou Hua, Yu Rui

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This paper aims to improve the streamline linked with the flow field and cavitation on the valve sleeve. We observed that local pressure fluctuation produces a low-pressure zone, central to the formation of vapor volume fraction within the valve chamber led to air-bubbles (or cavities). Thus, it allows simultaneously to a severe negative impact on the inner surface and lifespan of the valve sleeves. Cavitation reduction is a vitally important issue to pressure control valves. The optimization of the flow field is proposed in this paper to reduce the cavitation of valve sleeves. In this method, the inner wall of the valve sleeve is changed from a cylindrical surface to the conical surface, leading to the decline of the fluid flow velocity and the rise of the outlet pressure. Besides, the streamline is distributed inside the sleeve uniformly. Thus, the bubble generation is lessened. The fluid models are built and analysis of flow field distribution, pressure, vapor volume and velocity was carried out using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and numerical technique. The results indicate that this structure can suppress the cavitation of valve sleeves effectively.

Keywords: streamline, cavitation, optimization, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: N. Moradian, E. Timofeev, R. Tahir

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In this work, startability of the Busemann intake family with weak/strong conical shock, as most efficient intakes, via overboard mass spillage method is theoretically analyzed. Masterix and Candifix codes are used to numerically simulate few models of this type of intake and verify the theoretical results. Portions of the intake corresponding to various flow capture angles are considered to have mass spillage in the starting process of this intake. This approach allows for overboard mass spillage via a V-shaped slot with the tip of V coinciding with the focal point of the Busemann flow. The theoretical results, achieved using two different theories, of self-started Busemann takes with weak/strong conical shock show that significant improve in intake startability using overboard spillage technique. The starting phenomena of Busemann intakes with weak conical shock and seven different capture angles are numerically simulated at freestream Mach number of 3 to find the minimum area ratios of self-started intakes. The numerical results confirm the theoretical ones achieved by authors.

Keywords: Busemann intake, conical shock, overboard spillage, startability

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Authors: Y. Yang, Dian Ming Xing, Qiu Hua Du

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Based on the Motorized Momentum Exchange Tether (MMET), with the principle of momentum exchange, the three dimension flexible dynamics of continuous cislunar payloads transferring system (CCPTS) is built by Lagrange method and its numerical solution is solved by Mathematica software. In the derivation precession of potential energy, this paper uses the Tylor expansion method to simplify the Lagrange equation. Furthermore, the tension coming from the centripetal load is considered in the elastic potential energy. The comparison simulation results between the 3D rigid model and 3D flexible model of CCPTS shows that the tether flexibility has important influence on CCPTS’s orbital parameters (such as radius of CCPTS’s COM and the true anomaly) and the tether’s rotational movement, the relative deviation of radius and the true anomaly between the two dynamic models is about 0.00678% and 0.00259%, the relative deviation of the angle of tether-span and local gravity gradient is about 3.55%. Additionally, the external torque has an apparent influence on the tether’s axial vibration.

Keywords: cislunar transfer, dynamics, momentum exchange, tether

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed Iftikhar, Farah Khalid

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Global best practices as ordained by international organizations comprise a broader top-down approach to development problems, without taking into account country-specific factors. The political economy of each country is extremely different and the failure of several attempts of international organizations to implement global best practice models in developing countries each with its unique set of variables, goes on to show that this is not the most efficient solution to development problems. This paper is a humble attempt at shedding light on some specific examples of failures of the global best practices. Pakistan has its unique set of problems and unless those are added to the broader equation of development, country-specific reform and growth will continue to pose a challenge to reform programs initiated by international organizations. The three case studies presented in this paper are just a few prominent examples of failure of the global best practice, top-down, universalistic approach to development as ordained by international organizations. Development and reform can only be achieved if local dynamics are given their due importance. The modus operandi of international organizations needs to be tailored according to each country’s unique politico-economic environment.

Keywords: best practice, development, context

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Authors: Sushil Kumar Solanki, Rachna Khare

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Universal Design is a concept of built environment creation, where all people are facilitated to the maximum extent possible without using any type of specialized design. However, accessible design is a design process in which the needs of people with disabilities are specifically considered. Building standards on accessibility contains scoping and technical requirements for accessibility to sites, facilities, building and elements by individual with disability. India is also following its prescriptive types of various building standards for the creation of physical environment for people with disabilities. These building standards are based on western models instead of research based standards to serve Indian needs. These standards lack contextual connect when reflects in its application in the urban and rural environment. This study focuses on critical and comparative study of various international building standards and codes, with existing Indian accessibility standards to understand problems and prospects of concept of Universal Design building standards for India. The result of this study is an analysis of existing state of Indian building standard pertaining to accessibility and future need of performance based Universal Design concept.

Keywords: accessibility, building standard, built-environment, universal design

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Authors: Katharina Fellnhofer

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The more information and knowledge that technology provides, the more important are profoundly human skills like intuition, the skill of using nonconscious information. As our world becomes more complex, shaken by crises, and characterized by uncertainty, time pressure, ambiguity, and rapidly changing conditions, intuition is increasingly recognized as a key human asset. However, due to methodological limitations of sample size or time frame or a lack of real-world or cross-cultural scope, precisely how to measure intuition when facing risks on a nonconscious level remains unclear. In light of the measurement challenge related to intuition’s nonconscious nature, a technique is introduced to measure intuition via hidden images as nonconscious additional information to trigger intuition. This technique has been tested in a within-subject fully online design with 62,721 real-world investment decisions made by 657 subjects in Europe and the United States. Bayesian models highlight the technique’s potential to measure skill at using nonconscious information for conscious decision making. Over the long term, solving the mysteries of intuition and mastering its use could be of immense value in personal and organizational decision-making contexts.

Keywords: cognition, intuition, investment decisions, methodology

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Authors: Cau Tran, Tu Nguyen, Tien Pham

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Model-based design (MBD) is a mathematical and visual technique for addressing design issues in the fields of communications, signal processing, and complicated control systems. It is utilized in several automotive, aerospace, industrial, and motion control applications. Virtual models are at the center of the software development process with model based design. A method used in the creation of embedded software is model-based design. In this study, the LAT motor is modeled in a simulation environment, and the LAT motor control is designed with a cascade structure, a speed and current control loop, and a controller that is used in the next part. A PID structure serves as this controller. Based on techniques and motor parameters that match the design goals, the PID controller is created for the model using traditional design principles. The MBD approach will be used to build embedded software for motor control. The paper will be divided into three distinct sections. The first section will introduce the design process and the benefits and drawbacks of the MBD technique. The design of control software for LAT motors will be the main topic of the next section. The experiment's results are the subject of the last section.

Keywords: model based design, limited angle torque, intellectual property core, hardware description language, controller area network, user datagram protocol

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Authors: S. Rezaei, Z. Mirzaei, M. Khalighi, J. Bahrami

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Bridges, as an essential part of road infrastructures, are affected by various deterioration mechanisms over time due to the changes in their performance. As changes in performance can have many negative impacts on society, it is essential to be able to evaluate and measure the performance of bridges throughout their life. This evaluation includes the development or the choice of the appropriate performance indicators, which, in turn, are measured based on the selection of appropriate models for the existing deterioration mechanism. The purpose of this article is a statistical study of indicators and deterioration mechanisms of bridges in order to discover further research capacities in bridges performance assessment. For this purpose, some of the most common indicators of bridge performance, including reliability, risk, vulnerability, robustness, and resilience, were selected. The researches performed on each index based on the desired deterioration mechanisms and hazards were comprehensively reviewed. In addition, the formulation of the indicators and their relationship with each other were studied. The research conducted on the mentioned indicators were classified from the point of view of deterministic or probabilistic method, the level of study (element level, object level, etc.), and the type of hazard and the deterioration mechanism of interest. For each of the indicators, a number of challenges and recommendations were presented according to the review of previous studies.

Keywords: bridge, deterioration mechanism, lifecycle, performance indicator

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Authors: Lily Chimuanya, Esther Ajiboye, Emmanuel Uba

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One of the consequences of online communication is the birth of new orthography genres characterised by novel conventions of abbreviation and acronyms usually referred to as Netspeak. Netspeak, also known as internet slang, is a style of writing mainly used in online communication to limit the length of text characters and to save time. The aim of this study is to evaluate how second language users of the English language have internalised this new convention of writing; identify the recurrent patterns of Netspeak; and assess the consistency of the use of the identified patterns in relation to their meanings. The study is corpus-based, and data drawn from WhatsApp chart pages of selected groups of Nigerian English speakers show a large occurrence of inconsistencies in the patterns of Netspeak and their meanings. The study argues that rather than emphasise the negative impact of Netspeak on the communicative competence of second language users, studies should focus on suggesting models as yardsticks for standardising the usage of Netspeak and indeed all other emerging language conventions resulting from online communication. This stance stems from the inevitable global language transformation that is eminent with the coming of age of information technology.

Keywords: abbreviation, acronyms, Netspeak, online communication, standardisation

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Authors: Leila Vafajoo, Feria Ghanaat, Alireza Mohmadi Kartalaei, Amin Ghalebi

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Petrochemical industries are playing an important role in producing wastewaters. Nowadays different methods are employed to treat these materials. The goal of the present research was to reduce the COD of a petrochemical wastewater via adsorption technique using a commercial granular activated carbon (GAC) as adsorbent. In the current study, parameters of kinetic models as well as; adsorption isotherms were determined through utilizing the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. The key parameters of KL= 0.0009 and qm= 33.33 for the former and nf=0.5 and Kf= 0.000004 for the latter isotherms resulted. Moreover, a correlation coefficient of above 90% for both cases proved logical use of such isotherms. On the other hand, pseudo-first and -second order kinetics equations were implemented. These resulted in coefficients of k1=0.005 and qe=2018 as well as; K2=0.009 and qe=1250; respectively. In addition, obtaining the correlation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.68 for these 1st and 2nd order kinetics; respectively indicated advantageous use of the former model. Furthermore, a significant experimental reduction of the petrochemical wastewater COD revealed that, using GAC for the process undertaken was an efficient mean of treatment. Ultimately, the current investigation paved down the road for predicting the system’s behavior on industrial scale.

Keywords: petrochemical wastewater, adsorption, granular activated carbon, equilibrium isotherm, kinetic model

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Authors: Seyyed Hossein Alavi, Soudabeh Mehri Talarposhti

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Quick development of urban population need for housing on the one hand and prevention of irregular urban extension for optimum usage of urban land, resolving problems of urban physiognomy, land using, and environmental issues and urban transport, on the other hand, proposed tall building as urban area extension requirement in developing and advanced countries. Beside the tall building, protection, and creation of green architecture is one the most important issues of today's architecture world. This research is about attending tall building with green architecture in Babolsar city 2015. For this, the issues that can make favorite conditions for green architecture has been discussed. The purpose of this discussion is skeleton extension and accessing interactions between architecture and related technologies. This discussion with using of qualitative research methods (Analytical Description) tried to studying designed performance models and also studying and analyzing the inside and foreign articles and books. Hope this research is useful in solving the existing problems in this issue.

Keywords: tall building, green architecture, skeleton extension, Babolsar city

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Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

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Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms, CART algorithm

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Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

Abstract:

Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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