Search results for: structural risk

Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

Abstract:

Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Omar Amoudi, Latifa Al Brashdi

Abstract:

Construction projects are always subject to risks and uncertainties due to its unique and dynamic nature, outdoor work environment, the wide range of skills employed, various parties involved in addition to situation of construction business environment at large. Altogether, these risks and uncertainties affect projects objectives and lead to cost overruns, delay, and poor quality. Construction projects in Oman often experience cost overruns and delay. Managing these risks and reducing their impacts on construction cost requires firstly identifying these risks, and then analyzing their severity on project cost to obtain deep understanding about these risks. This in turn will assist construction managers in managing and tacking these risks. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors that affect construction projects cost in the Sultanate of Oman. In order to achieve the main aim, literature review was carried out to identify the main risk factors affecting construction cost. Thirty-three risk factors were identified from the literature. Then, a questionnaire survey was designed and distributed among construction professionals (i.e., client, contractor and consultant) to obtain their opinion toward the probability of occurrence for each risk factor and its possible impact on construction project cost. The collected data was analyzed based on qualitative aspects and in several ways. The severity of each risk factor was obtained by multiplying the probability occurrence of a risk factor with its impact. The findings of this study reveal that the most significant risk factors that have high severity impact on construction project cost are: Change of Oil Price, Delay of Materials and Equipment Delivery, Changes in Laws and Regulations, Improper Budgeting, and Contingencies, Lack of Skilled Workforce and Personnel, Delays Caused by Contractor, Delays of Owner Payments, Delays Caused by Client, and Funding Risk. The results can be used as a basis for construction managers to make informed decisions and produce risk response procedures and strategies to tackle these risks and reduce their negative impacts on construction project cost.

Keywords: construction cost, construction projects, Oman, risk factors, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

Abstract:

Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

Abstract:

Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Joon-Ho Lee, Jeong-Hwan Yoon, Jung-Hwan Yoon, Sangmo Kang, Su-Yeon Hong, Hyun-Woo Jeong, Jaeick Chae

Abstract:

There are several dedicated individual chambers for sports that are supplied and used, but none of them are multi-pressured all-in-one chambers that can provide a sports multi-environment simultaneously. In this study, we design a multi-pressure (positive/atmospheric/negative pressure) integrated vessel that can be used for the sport-multi-artificial environment system. We presented additional vessel designs with enlarged space for the tall users; with reinforcement pads added to reduce the maximum stress in the joints of its shells, and then carried out numerical analysis for the structural analysis with maximum stress and structural safety. Under the targeted allowable pressure conditions, maximum stresses occurred at the joint of the shell, and the entrance, the safety of the structure was checked with the allowable stress of its material.

Keywords: structural analysis, multi-pressure, integrated vessel, sport-multi-artificial environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 519

Authors: Hamza Zidoum

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of human genetic variation on the function of human proteins using machine-learning algorithms. Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism represents the most common form of human genome variation. We focus on the single amino-acid polymorphism located in the coding region as they can affect the protein function leading to pathologic phenotypic change. We use several supervised Machine Learning methods to identify structural properties correlated with increased risk of the missense mutation being damaging. SVM associated with Principal Component Analysis give the best performance.

Keywords: single-nucleotide polymorphism, machine learning, feature selection, SVM

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

Abstract:

Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of 83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and disobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed a greater detection rate compared to other PAE monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in sediment samples compared to water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 mg/kg and 0.00 to 0.028 mg/l, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be approaching permissible limit which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthalates, endocrine disruptor, risk assessment, ecological risk, health risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, Thailammai Chithambaram, Shihas A. Khader

Abstract:

The early-stage damage detection in offshore structures requires continuous structural health monitoring and for the large area the position of sensors will also plays an important role in the efficient damage detection. Determining the dynamic behavior of offshore structures requires dense deployment of sensors. The wired Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems are highly expensive and always needs larger installation space to deploy. Wireless sensor networks can enhance the SHM system by deployment of scalable sensor network, which consumes lesser space. This paper presents the results of wireless sensor network based Structural Health Monitoring method applied to a scaled experimental model of offshore structure that underwent wave loading. This method determines the serviceability of the offshore structure which is subjected to various environment loads. Wired and wireless sensors were installed in the model and the response of the scaled BLSRP model under wave loading was recorded. The wireless system discussed in this study is the Raspberry pi board with Arm V6 processor which is programmed to transmit the data acquired by the sensor to the server using Wi-Fi adapter, the data is then hosted in the webpage. The data acquired from the wireless and wired SHM systems were compared and the design of the wireless system is verified.

Keywords: condition assessment, damage detection, structural health monitoring, structural response, wireless sensor network

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

Abstract:

Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

Abstract:

Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

Abstract:

Introduction: The problems of unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many research papers found that the performance of existing classifier tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k -nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is one method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. Hence, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest to us in investigating misclassification error rates for class-imbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification application of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Methods: Data from a healthy project for 599 staffs in a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The staffs were diagnosed into one of three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data along with the variables; diabetes risk group, age, gender, cholesterol, and BMI was analyzed and bootstrapped up to 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples show non-normality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. In finding the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions with three choices of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) or (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). Results: The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k = 3 or k = 4 and the prior probabilities of {non-risk:risk:diabetic} as {0.90:0.05:0.05} or {0.80:0.10:0.10} gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. Conclusion: The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: error rate, bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, k-nearest neighbors

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

Abstract:

Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

Abstract:

Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: A. D. Abdellatif, A. N. Ahmed, M. E. Abdelaziz

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to design a double acceptance sampling plan under the time truncated life test when the product lifetime follows an exponentiated transmuted Weibull distribution. Here, the motive is to meet both the consumer’s risk and producer’s risk simultaneously at the specified quality levels, while the termination time is specified. A comparison between the results of the double and single acceptance sampling plans is conducted. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to real data sets.

Keywords: double sampling plan, single sampling plan, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution, time truncated experiment, single, double, Marshal-Olkin

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Mamiza Haq

Abstract:

This paper examines the relevance of bank capital and charter value on bank insolvency and liquidity risks. Using an unbalanced panel of 2,111 unique local banks across 22 countries over 1998-2012, we find that both bank capital and charter value lower insolvency and liquidity risks, but this effect varies among conventional, Islamic, and Islamic-window banks. The risk constraining effect of bank capital becomes more prominent in the post 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, the relationships vary when conditioned upon other key bank-specific characteristics. For instance, the effect of capital on risk-reduction diminishes in the presence of high charter value for conventional-G7 and Islamic-window banks, during-GFC and pre-GFC period; respectively. Our findings have important policy implications related to bank safety. The results are robust to a range of robustness tests.

Keywords: bank capital, charter value, risk, financial crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

Abstract:

Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Mohamad Saberi, Arash Sohrabi

Abstract:

Tuned liquid damper is one the passive structural control ways which has been used since mid-1980 decade for seismic control in civil engineering. This system is made of one or many tanks filled with fluid, mostly water that installed on top of the high raised structure and used to prevent structure vibration. In this article, we will show how to make seismic table contain TLD system and analysis the result of using this system in our structure. Results imply that when frequency ratio approaches 1 this system can perform its best in both dissipate energy and increasing structural damping. And also results of these serial experiments are proved compatible with Hunzer linear theory behaviour.

Keywords: TLD, seismic table, structural system, Hunzer linear behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Annisa Dewanti Putri, Wang Juan, Y. Qing Shan

Abstract:

The structural assessment is one of a crucial part for ancient timber structure, in which this phase will be the reference for the maintenance and preservation phase. The mechanical properties of a structure are one of an important component of the structural assessment of building. Feiyun as one of the particular preserved building in China will become one of the Pioneer of Timber Structure Building Assessment. The 3-storey building which is located in Shanxi Province consists of complex ancient timber structure. Due to condition and preservation purpose, assessments (visual inspections, Non-Destructive Test and a Semi Non-Destructive test) were conducted. The stress wave measurement, moisture content analyzer, and the micro-drilling resistance meter data will overview the prediction of Mechanical Properties. As a result, the mechanical properties can be used for the next phase as reference for structural damage solutions.

Keywords: ancient structure, mechanical properties, non destructive test, stress wave, structural assessment, timber structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Rami S. Alasmari, Abdullah Al Zahrani, Hattan A. Hassani, Hattan A. Hassani, Nawwaf A. Almalky, Abdullah F. Bokhari, Alwalied A. Hafez

Abstract:

Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2) is a major chronic condition that is considered common among elderly people, with multiple potential complications that could contribute to falls. However, this concept is not well understood, thus, the aim of this study is to determine whether diabetes is an independent risk factor for falls in elderly. In this observational cross-sectional study, 309 diabetic patients aged 60 or more who visited the primary healthcare centers of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs in Jeddah were chosen via convenience sampling method. To collect the data, Semi-structured Fall Risk Assessment questionnaire and Fall Efficacy Score scale were used. The mean age of the participants was estimated to be 68.5 (SD:7.4) years. Among the participants, 48.2% experienced falling before, and 63.1% of them suffered falls in the past 12-months. The results showed that gait problems were independently associated with a higher likelihood of fall among the elderly patients (OR = 1.98, 95%CI, 1.08 to 3.62, p = 0.026. This paper suggests that diabetes mellitus is an independent fall risk factor among elderly. Therefore, identifying such patients as being at higher risk and prompt referral to a specialist falls clinic is recommended.

Keywords: diabetes, fall, elderly, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

Abstract:

Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

Abstract:

While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

Abstract:

Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

Abstract:

The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Alwyn John Lim

Abstract:

Philippines is one of the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters in the world. Almost every year different types of natural disasters occur in Philippines and destroy many lives and resources of people. Although it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of disasters influenced by natural causes, proper plan and management such as disaster risk reduction may minimize the damage cause by natural disasters. Based on literature review this paper will analyze literatures on public/community awareness and education in disaster risk reduction that would help promote a country wide public disaster awareness and education program in the Philippines. This will include best practices and importance of community disaster awareness and education. The paper will also tackle ICT tools that will help boost the process and effectiveness of community/public disaster awareness and education.

Keywords: community awareness, disaster education, disaster risk reduction, Philippines

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Johnson Okoduwa Imumbhon, Mohammad Didarul Alam, Yiding Cao

Abstract:

Structural analyses are commonly employed to test the integrity of aircraft component systems in the design stage to demonstrate the capability of the structural components to withstand what it was designed for, as well as to predict potential failure of the components. The analyses are also essential for weight minimization and selecting the most resilient materials that will provide optimal outcomes. This research focuses on testing the structural nature of a high-lift low Reynolds number airfoil profile design, the Selig S1223, under certain loading conditions for a drone model application. The wing (ribs, spars, and skin) of the drone model was made of carbon fiber-reinforced polymer and designed in SolidWorks, while the finite element analysis was carried out in ANSYS mechanical in conjunction with the lift and drag forces that were derived from the aerodynamic airfoil analysis. Additionally, modal analysis was performed to calculate the natural frequencies and the mode shapes of the wing structure. The structural strain and stress determined the minimal deformations under the wing loading conditions, and the modal analysis showed the prominent modes that were excited by the given forces. The research findings from the structural analysis of the S1223 high-lift airfoil indicated that it is applicable for use in an unmanned aerial vehicle as well as a novel reciprocating-airfoil-driven vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) drone model.

Keywords: CFRP, finite element analysis, high-lift, S1223, strain, stress, VTOL

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Selim M. Khan

Abstract:

Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Weerawan Marangkun

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to explore the establishment and to investigate the relationship between the gender (male or female) of SME owner-managers/ entrepreneurs and their risk perception in business activity. The study examines the data by interviewing 76 SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs’ responses (37 males, 39 females) in manufacturing, finance, human resources and marketing sector in the economic regions of Songkhla province, Thailand. This study found that four tools which were operation, cash flow, staff, and new market were perceived by the SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs at high level. However, male and female SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs perceived some factors such as the age of SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs, the duration of firm operation, type of firm, and type of business without significant differences. In contrast, the gender affected the risk perception about increasing cost, fierce competition, leapfrog development of firm, substandard staff, namely that male and female perceived these factors with significant differences. According to the research, SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs should develop their risk management competency to deal with the risk efficiently. Secondly, SME firms should gather into groups. Furthermore, it was shown that the five key tools used to manage these risky situations were the use of managerial competencies and clustering.

Keywords: risk perception, owner-managers/entrepreneurs, SME, Songkhla, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Murali Aarthy, Sanjeev Kumar Singh

Abstract:

High risk human papillomaviruses are highly associated with the carcinoma of the cervix and the other genital tumors. Cervical cancer develops through the multistep process in which increasingly severe premalignant dysplastic lesions called cervical intraepithelial neoplastic progress to invasive cancer. The oncoprotein E7 of human papillomavirus expressed in the lower epithelial layers drives the cells into S-phase creating an environment conducive for viral genome replication and cell proliferation. The replication of the virus occurs in the terminally differentiating epithelium and requires the activation of cellular DNA replication proteins. To date, no suitable drug molecule is available to treat HPV infection whereas identification of potential drug targets and development of novel anti-HPV chemotherapies with unique mode of actions are expected. Hence, our present study aimed to identify the potential inhibitors analogous to EGCG, a green tea molecule which is considered to be safe to use for mammalian systems. A 3D similarity search on the natural small molecule library from natural product database using EGCG identified 11 potential hits based on their similarity score. The structure based docking strategies were implemented in the potential hits and the key interacting residues of protein with compounds were identified through simulation studies and binding free energy calculations. The conformational changes between the apoprotein and the complex were analyzed with the simulation and the results demonstrated that the dynamical and structural effects observed in the protein were induced by the compounds and indicated the dominance to the oncoprotein. Overall, our study provides the basis for the structural insights of the identified potential hits and EGCG and hence, the analogous compounds identified can be potent inhibitors against the HPV 16 E7 oncoprotein.

Keywords: EGCG, oncoprotein, molecular dynamics simulation, analogues

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

Abstract:

Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 131