Search results for: sales uncertainty

Authors: Lola Rosalia Saavedra Guzman, Plamen Neytchev Netchev

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In general, agnosticism is perceived as an uncertainty between a well-structured (religious) belief (in some Christian or pagan deity) and its absolute and total absence, often causing the suspicion that an agnostic is an atheist, which is "reinsured" in case if their personal belief is wrong. All of this, along with the prevailing view among the naturalists that science has already demonstrated the inexistence of God, has compelled us to seek the foundation of agnosticism and faith in the contemporary formal human logic, advanced mathematics, and the natural sciences. Along the way, we will find that no natural science can demonstrate the existence of God, nor could it discard it for rational considerations, which show that there is something beyond. After all, it seems that the human intellect is insufficient to respond surely with yes or no to the existence of higher intelligences leaving unconditional faith as the only path to God for Christians and transcendent techniques, for pagan religious beliefs.

Keywords: agnosticism, formal logic, axioms and postulates, Gödel theorems, and logical faults

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Authors: Javier Fernandez De Canete, Alvaro Fernandez-Quintero

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Nowadays, adaptive control schemes are being used when model based control schemes are applied in presence of uncertainty and model mismatches. Artificial neural networks have been employed both in modelling and control of non-linear dynamic systems with unknown dynamics. In fact, these are powerful tools to solve this control problem when only input-output operational data are available. A neural network controller under SIMULINK together with the ARDUINO hardware platform has been used to perform real-time speed control of a computer case fan. Comparison of performance with a PID controller has also been presented in order to show the efficacy of neural control under different command signals tracking and also when disturbance signals are present in the speed control loops.

Keywords: neural networks, ARDUINO platform, SIMULINK, adaptive speed control

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Authors: Mohammad Soliman, Mohamed A. Abou-Shouk

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Knowledge management focuses on the development, storage, retrieval, and dissemination of information and expertise. It has become an important tool to improve performance in tourism enterprises. This includes improving decision-making, developing customer services, and increasing sales and profits. Knowledge management adoption depends on human, organizational and technological factors. This study aims to explore the concept of knowledge management in travel agents in Egypt. It explores the requirements of adoption and its impact on performance in these agencies. The study targets Category A travel agents in Egypt. The population of the study encompasses Category A travel agents having online presence. An online questionnaire is used to collect data from managers of travel agents. This study is useful for travel agents who are in urgent need to restructure their intermediary role and support their survival in the global travel market. The study sheds light on the requirements of adoption and the expected impact on performance. This could help travel agents identify their situation and the determine the extent to which they are ready to adopt knowledge management. This study is contributing to knowledge by providing insights from the tourism sector in a developing country where the concept of knowledge management is still in its infancy stages.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge management adoption, performance, travel agents

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Authors: Guofan Shao, Lina Tang, Hao Zhang

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The values of image classification accuracy are affected by class size distributions and classification schemes, making it difficult to compare the performance of classification algorithms across different remote sensing data sources and classification systems. Based on the term efficacy from medicine and pharmacology, we have developed the metrics of image classification efficacy at the map and class levels. The novelty of this approach is that a baseline classification is involved in computing image classification efficacies so that the effects of class statistics are reduced. Furthermore, the image classification efficacies are interpretable and comparable, and thus, strengthen the assessment of image data classification methods. We use real-world and hypothetical examples to explain the use of image classification efficacies. The metrics of image classification efficacy meet the critical need to rectify the strategy for the assessment of image classification performance as image classification methods are becoming more diversified.

Keywords: accuracy assessment, efficacy, image classification, machine learning, uncertainty

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Authors: Anna Claudia Pellicelli, Silvia Procacci

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The study aims to demonstrate how different locations, where the same product is unveiled and tested, can provide a different result in terms of perception by the same kind of people. The experiment was done in occasion of the presentation of a new bike. A group of dealers has been invited in Lloret de Mar, two persons from the headquarter were present to run the presentation, together with an outsourced trainer. Half day dedicated to the theoretical presentation and half day to the test of the new bike on the road, including the test of its direct competitors. The same presentation, organized in the same way, has been delivered in Italy, in 4 locations often used to run business meetings with dealers. In the end of all days of the presentation, dealers had to fill a questionnaire regarding the evaluation of the different bikes tested. The result of the questionnaire showed how the group invited in Spain rated much higher the new bike compared with the dealers testing the bike in locations already known and close to their home. So, in terms of business strategy, it is important to take into account how the location and the way of presenting any product or service can have a favourable impact on the people we want to convince. The next step of the experiment will be to cross check the sales of that bike with the dealers and measure if there is a relation between the top sellers and the one that appreciated the bike the most, in Spain. It would mean that they were able to transfer to customers the same good feelings and impressions they had in Spain.

Keywords: product presentation, locations, emotional effect, business strategy

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Authors: Majid Khalili, Hamed Tayebi

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This paper considers a stochastic flexible job-shop scheduling (SFJSS) problem in the presence of production disruptions, and reactive scheduling is implemented in order to find the optimal solution under uncertainty. In this problem, there are two main disruptions including machine failure which influences operation time, and modification or cancellation of the order delivery date during production. In order to decrease the negative effects of these difficulties, two derived strategies from reactive scheduling are used; the first one is relevant to being able to allocate multiple machine to each job, and the other one is related to being able to select the best alternative process from other job while some disruptions would be created in the processes of a job. For this purpose, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model is proposed.

Keywords: flexible job-shop scheduling, reactive scheduling, stochastic environment, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Biplab Singha, Mausumi Sen, Nidul Sinha

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In order to deal with the impreciseness and uncertainty of a system, D. Molodtsov has introduced the concept of ‘Soft Set’ in the year 1999. Since then, a number of related definitions have been conceptualized. This paper includes a study on various forms of Soft Sets with examples. The paper contains the concepts of domain and co-domain of a soft set, conversion to one-one and onto function, matrix representation of a soft set and its relation with one-one function, upper and lower triangular matrix, transpose and Kernel of a soft set. This paper also gives the idea of the extension of soft sets in medical diagnosis. Here, two soft sets related to disease and symptoms are considered and using AND operation and OR operation, diagnosis of the disease is calculated through appropriate examples.

Keywords: kernel of a soft set, soft set, transpose of a soft set, upper and lower triangular matrix of a soft set

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Authors: Roya Khajepour, Alireza B. Novinzadeh

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A major issue with spherical robot is it surface shape, which is not always predictable. This means that given only the dynamic model of the robot, it is not possible to control the robot. Due to the fact that in certain conditions it is not possible to measure surface friction, control methods must be prepared for these conditions. Moreover, although spherical robot never becomes unstable or topples thanks to its special shape, since it moves by rolling it has a non-holonomic constraint at point of contact and therefore it is considered a non-holonomic system. Existence of such a point leads to complexity and non-linearity of robot's kinematic equations and makes the control problem difficult. Due to the non-linear dynamics and presence of uncertainty, the sliding-mode control is employed. The proposed method is based on Lyapunov Theory and guarantees system stability. This controller is insusceptible to external disturbances and un-modeled dynamics.

Keywords: sliding mode, spherical robot, non-holomonic constraint, system stability

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Authors: Ofoegbu Ositadinma Edward

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This research paper discusses a web based monitoring system that enables effective monitoring of fuel pump output and sales volume from distributed fuel stations under the domain of a single company/organization. The traditional method of operation by these organizations in Nigeria is non-automated and accounting for dispensed product is usually approximated and manual as there is little or no technology implemented to presently provide information relating to the state of affairs in the station both to on-ground staff and to supervisory staff that are not physically present in the station. This results in unaccountable losses in product and revenue as well as slow decision making. Remote monitoring technology as a vast research field with numerous application areas incorporating various data collation techniques and sensor networks can be applied to provide information relating to fuel pump status in distributed fuel stations reliably. Thus, the proposed system relies upon a microcontroller, keypad and pump to demonstrate the traditional fuel dispenser. A web-enabled PC with an accompanying graphic user interface (GUI) was designed using virtual basic which is connected to the microcontroller via the serial port which is to provide the web implementation.

Keywords: fuel pump, microcontroller, GUI, web

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Authors: Qura-tul-aain Khair

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Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to empirically examining the strength of association of responsive market orientation and proactive market orientation with new product performance and exploring the possible moderating role of organizational learning based on contingency theory. Design/methodology/approach- Data for this study was collected from FMCG manufacturing industry and services industry, where customers are in contact frequently and responses are recorded on continuous basis. Sample was collected through convenience sampling. The data collected from different marketing department and sales personnel were analysed using SPSS 16 version. Findings- The paper finds that responsive market orientation is more strongly associated with new product performance. The moderator, organizational learning, plays it significant role on the relationship between responsive market orientation and new product performance. Research limitations/implications- this paper has taken sample from just FMCG industry and service industry, more work can be done regarding how different-markets require different market orientation behaviours. Originality/value- This paper will be useful for foreign business looking for investing and expanding in Pakistan, they can find opportunity to get sustained competitive advantage through exploring the proactive side of market orientation and importance of organizational learning.

Keywords: organizational learning, proactive market orientation, responsive market orientation, new product performance

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Authors: Bader Alkandari, Jamal Y. Madouh, Ahmad M. Alkandari, Anwar A. Alnaqi

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A new formulation of fuzzy linear estimation problem is presented. It is formulated as a linear programming problem. The objective is to minimize the spread of the data points, taking into consideration the type of the membership function of the fuzzy parameters to satisfy the constraints on each measurement point and to insure that the original membership is included in the estimated membership. Different models are developed for a fuzzy triangular membership. The proposed models are applied to different examples from the area of fuzzy linear regression and finally to different examples for estimating the electrical load on a busbar. It had been found that the proposed technique is more suited for electrical load estimation, since the nature of the load is characterized by the uncertainty and vagueness.

Keywords: fuzzy regression, load estimation, fuzzy linear parameters, electrical load estimation

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Authors: Hala Ali

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In the evolving landscape of contemporary art, the value of failure and experimentation plays a central role in reshaping artistic research. This paper explores an artistic residency where the focus shifted from traditional practices of ink on canvas to performance art using the human body as a medium of expression. This residency emphasized uncertainty, experimentation, and emotional expression as the core of the process. Through collaboration between a calligrapher and a visual artist, the performance engaged themes of seduction, silence, and the transition between reality and abstraction. In alignment with experimental art practices, the process itself became the artwork, embracing moments of failure and disruption as key components of creative exploration. This research integrates theories from neuroscience, psychology, and artistic failure, drawing on the insights of thinkers like John Cage, Samuel Beckett, and Cornelius Cardew to further contextualize the residency’s impact.

Keywords: embodied art, emotional communication, mindfulness in art, nonverbal communication, performance art

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Authors: Chandan Hegde, K. Ashwini

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Commonsense reasoning is the simulation of human ability to make decisions during the situations that we encounter every day. It has been several decades since the introduction of this subfield of artificial intelligence, but it has barely made some significant progress. The modern computing aids also have remained impotent in this regard due to the absence of a strong methodology towards commonsense reasoning development. Among several accountable reasons for the lack of progress, drawing inference out of commonsense knowledge-base stands out. This review paper emphasizes on a detailed analysis of representation of reasoning uncertainties and feasible prospects of programming aids for drawing inferences. Also, the difficulties in deducing and systematizing commonsense reasoning and the substantial progress made in reasoning that influences the study have been discussed. Additionally, the paper discusses the possible impacts of an effective inference technique in commonsense reasoning.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, commonsense reasoning, knowledge base, uncertainty in reasoning

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Authors: A. Grilec, S. Petrak, M. Mahnic Naglic

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Technological development and the globalization in production and sales of clothing in the last decade have significantly influenced the changes in consumer relationship with the industrial-fashioned apparel and in the way of clothing purchasing. The Internet sale of clothing is in a constant and significant increase in the global market, but the possibilities offered by modern computing technologies in the customization segment are not yet fully involved, especially according to the individual customer requirements and body sizes. Considering the growing trend of online shopping, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the differences in customer perceptions towards online apparel shopping and particularly to discover the main differences in perceptions between customers regarding three different body sizes. In order to complete the research goal, the quantitative study on the sample of 85 Croatian consumers was conducted in 2017 in Zagreb, Croatia. Respondents were asked to indicate their level of agreement according to a five-point Likert scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (5). To analyze attitudes of respondents, simple and descriptive statistics were used. The main findings highlight the differences in respondent perception of 3D body scanning, using 3D body scanning in Internet shopping, online apparel shopping habits regarding their body sizes.

Keywords: consumer behavior, Internet, 3D body scanning, body types

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Authors: Jonghae Park, Daesung Kim

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The impact of aggressive and conservative working capital‘s strategies on the value and profitability of the firms has been evaluated by applying the panel data regression analysis. The control variables used in the regression models are natural log of firm size, sales growth, and debt. We collected a panel of 13,988 companies listed on the Korea stock market covering the period 2000-2016. The major findings of this study are as follow: 1) We find a significant negative correlation between firm profitability and the number of days inventory (INV) and days accounts payable (AP). The firm’s profitability can also be improved by reducing the number of days of inventory and days accounts payable. 2) We also find a significant positive correlation between firm profitability and the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR). In other words, the cash is associated with high corporate profitability. 3) Tobin's analysis showed that only the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR) had a significant relationship. In conclusion, companies can increase profitability by reducing INV and increasing AP, but INV and AP did not affect corporate value. In particular, it is necessary to increase CA and decrease AR in order to increase Firm’s profitability and value.

Keywords: working capital, working capital management, firm value, profitability

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Authors: S. Parisi, Ch. Achillas, D. Aidonis, D. Folinas, N. Moussiopoulos

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Preparedness addresses the strategy in disaster management that allows the implementation of successful operational response immediately after a disaster. With speed as the main driver, product design for humanitarian aid purposes is a key factor of success in situations of high uncertainty and urgency. Within this context, a telecommunications container (TC) has been designed that belongs to a group of containers that serve the purpose of immediate response to global disasters. The TC includes all the necessary equipment to establish a telecommunication center in the destroyed area within the first 72 hours of humanitarian operations. The design focuses on defining the topology of the various parts of equipment by taking into consideration factors of serviceability, functionality, human-product interaction, universal design language, energy consumption, sustainability and the interrelationship with the other containers. The concept parametric design has been implemented with SolidWorks® CAD system.

Keywords: telecommunications container, design, case study, humanitarian logistics

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Authors: M. J. Shofa, A. Hidayatno, O. M. Armand

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MRP as a production control system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is a new approach for inventory control system, and it deals with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP work for a long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of on-hand inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation using purchased part data from an automotive company. The result is MRP gives 50,759 pcs / day while DDMRP gives 34,835 pcs / day (reduce 32%), it means DDMRP is more effective inventory control than MRP in terms of on-hand inventory levels.

Keywords: Demand-Driven MRP, long lead time, MRP, uncertain demand

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Authors: Xinrong Li, Jiawei Dai

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Food production, food safety, and the food supply chain are causing a great challenge to human health and the environment. Different kinds of food have different environmental costs. Therefore, a healthy diet can alleviate this problem to a certain extent. In this project, an online questionnaire was conducted to understand the purchase behaviour of consumers and their attitudes towards basic food information. However, the data shows that the public's current consumption habits and ideology do not meet the long-term development of sustainable social needs. In order to solve the environmental problems caused by the unbalanced diet of the public and the social problems of unequal food distribution, the purpose of this paper is to explore how to use the emerging media of VR to visualize food supply chain information so as to attract users' attention to the environmental cost of food. In this project, the food supply chain of imported and local cheese was compared side-by-side in the virtual reality environment, including the origin, transportation, sales, and other processes, which can effectively help users understand the difference between the two processes and environmental costs. Besides, the experimental data demonstrated that the participant would like to choose low environmental cost food after experiencing the whole process.

Keywords: virtual reality, information design, food supply chain, environmental cost

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Authors: Bowen Zhang

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Transnational higher education (TNHE) is one of the most prominent symbols of higher education’s internationalisation. The case university, Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool University (XJTLU), represents an equal collaboration between its parent institutions as they are tied in academic strength. Therefore, compared to the more prescribed route of UNNC, which is working towards creating another UK university in China, XJTLU’s future is fraught with uncertainty. Such kind of uncertainty underpins the rationale of selecting XJTLU as a case university in researching internationalisation -it does not aim to build an international university based on a template; instead, internationalisation in XJTLU is established in a more participatory manner that also reflects an understanding of its staff and students. Therefore, this article focuses on Chinese students' expectations and experiences in XJTLU. While there are research discussing international students' experiences in TNHE institutions, the experiences of Chinese students who attend their domestic TNHE have been less explored. This might be due to the potential issues they confront are not as intuitive as those faced by international students, whose experiences are largely shaped by mobility and cross-cultural transition, a well-documented and conceptualised phenomenon. Research regarding Chinese students mainly focuses on their motivations, for example, enhancing English proficiency, improving competitive advantage in labour market, and gaining an international perspective. However, it should be noted that these motivations are based on the internationalised features of TNHE institutions. Internationalisation in XJTLU is symbolised through 100% English-medium instruction, internationalised curriculum, and the national diversity of its students and staff. However, in practice, these promises for internationalisation are hardly met; for example, in terms of EMI, lecturers may engage in their native language, either out of their hope to enhance students’ understanding or forcibly switch back to Chinese due to limited language capacity. Therefore, it could be seen that the non-application of internationalised policy may result in a negotiated internationalising experience for students. It is important to point out that, in this study, both the expected capital that students hope to access prior to their enrollment to XJTLU and the actual capital that students are accumulating during their attendance, are examined, as the difference between the actual and potential could be an important indicator of the discrepancy between how internationalisation is perceived and how it is enacted in practice. The potential resources implicate perceived compatibility between habitus and field, which is highly relevant to the way that a field makes itself known, whereas the actual resources represent the lived experience and the actual compatibility between habitus and field. This study explores the similarities and differences between the expected and lived capital from XJTLU, and the way that students form and navigate their expectations, in turn providing insights on how XJTLU, or HE internationalisation as a whole, is depicted, imagined, and enacted among Chinese students.

Keywords: transnational higher education, English-medium instruction, students' experience, Chinese higher education

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Authors: Jam Harley

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The COVID-19 epidemic accelerated the speed of change in the workplace. Overnight, several individuals shifted from co-location in an office to hybrid or remote work. The pandemic also expedited and intensified the need to address persistent leadership and management concerns, including digital transformation, remote management, leading through fast change, anxiety, and uncertainty. Nonetheless, many leaders have failed to address the problems left behind by the epidemic. In a fundamental work devoted to comprehending what constitutes a human need, Maslow reiterates similar descriptors in his explanation of belongingness as the human need to be accepted, acknowledged, respected, and appreciated by a community of other individuals. This study aims to investigate the lived experiences of dispersed hybrid team members in order to find leadership best practices that improve team performance and retention through an increased individual’s sense of belonging.

Keywords: organizational change, belonging, diversity, equity

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Authors: Aouiche Abdelaziz, Soudani Mouhamed Salah, Aouiche El Moundhe

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The present paper addresses the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) for the identification and control of dynamical systems with some degree of uncertainty. Because ANNs and FISs have an inherent ability to approximate functions and to adapt to changes in input and parameters, they can be used to control systems too complex for linear controllers. In this work, we show how ANNs and FISs can be put in order to form nets that can learn from external data. In sequence, it is presented structures of inputs that can be used along with ANNs and FISs to model non-linear systems. Four systems were used to test the identification and control of the structures proposed. The results show the ANNs and FISs (Back Propagation Algorithm) used were efficient in modeling and controlling the non-linear plants.

Keywords: non-linear systems, fuzzy set Models, neural network, control law

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Authors: Hema Bhardwaj, D. Srinivasa Rao

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Technology for analysing, processing, and extracting meaningful data from enormous and complicated datasets can be termed as "big data." The technique of big data mining and big data analysis is extremely helpful for business movements such as making decisions, building organisational plans, researching the market efficiently, improving sales, etc., because typical management tools cannot handle such complicated datasets. Special computational and statistical issues, such as measurement errors, noise accumulation, spurious correlation, and storage and scalability limitations, are brought on by big data. These unique problems call for new computational and statistical paradigms. This research paper offers an overview of the literature on big data mining, its process, along with problems and difficulties, with a focus on the unique characteristics of big data. Organizations have several difficulties when undertaking data mining, which has an impact on their decision-making. Every day, terabytes of data are produced, yet only around 1% of that data is really analyzed. The idea of the mining and analysis of data and knowledge discovery techniques that have recently been created with practical application systems is presented in this study. This article's conclusion also includes a list of issues and difficulties for further research in the area. The report discusses the management's main big data and data mining challenges.

Keywords: big data, data mining, data analysis, knowledge discovery techniques, data mining challenges

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Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

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Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: black box, faults, failure, software reliability

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Authors: Katarzyna Niewiadomska

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Many technology startups fail to achieve a worthwhile return on investment for their funders, founders, and employees. Failures in product development, to-market strategy, sales, and delivery are commonly recognized. Founder failures are not as obvious and harder to identify. This paper explores six critical failure points that entrepreneurs and innovators are susceptible to and aims to link their emotional intelligence and behavioral profile to the points at which they experienced self-perceived failure. A model of six failure points from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur ranging from pre-startup to maturity is provided. By analyzing emotional and behavioral profile data from entrepreneurs and recording in-person accounts, certain key emotional and behavioral clusters contributing to each failure point are determined, and several underlying factors are defined and discussed. Recommendations that support entrepreneurs and innovators stalling at each failure point are given. This work can enable stakeholders to evaluate founder emotional and behavioral profiles and to take risk-mitigating action, either through coaching or through more robust team creation, to avoid founder-related company failure. The paper will be of interest to investors funding startups, executives leading them and mentors supporting them.

Keywords: behavior, emotional intelligence, entrepreneur, failure

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Authors: Bader Al-Mannai, Saad Sulieman, Yaser Al-Alawi

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Research studies worldwide undoubtedly demonstrated that the implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) program can improve organizations competitive abilities and provide strategic quality advances. However, limited empirical studies and research are directed to measure the effectiveness of TQM implementation on the industrial and manufacturing organizations performance. Accordingly, this paper is aimed at discussing “the degree of TQM implementation in Bahrain industries and its effect on their performance”. The paper will present the measurement indicators and success factors that were used to assess the degree of TQM implementation in Bahrain industry, and the main performance indicators that were affected by TQM implementation. The adopted research methodology in this study was a survey that was based on self-completion questionnaire. The sample population represented the industrial and manufacturing organizations in Bahrain. The study led to the identification of the operational and strategic measurement indicators and success factors that assist organizations in realizing successful TQM implementation and performance improvement. Furthermore, the research analysis confirmed a positive and significant relationship between the examined performance indicators in Bahrain industry and TQM implementation. In conclusion the investigation of the relationship revealed that the implementation of TQM program has resulted into remarkable improvements on workforce, sales performance, and quality performance indicators in Bahrain industry.

Keywords: performance indicators, success factors, TQM implementation, Bahrain

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Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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Authors: Ron Cottam, Nils Langloh, Willy Ranson, Roger Vounckx

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We start by formally describing the requirements for environmental-reaction survival computation in a natural temporally-demanding medium, and develop this into a more general model of the evolutionary context as a computational machine. The effect of this development is to replace deterministic logic by a modified form which exhibits a continuous range of dimensional fractal diffuseness between the isolation of perfectly ordered localization and the extended communication associated with nonlocality as represented by pure causal chaos. We investigate the appearance of life and consciousness in the derived general model, and propose a representation of Nature within which all localizations have the character of quasi-quantal entities. We compare our conclusions with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and nonlocal teleportation, and maintain that computability is the principal influence on evolution in the model we propose.

Keywords: computability, evolution, life, localization, modeling, nonlocality

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Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

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Authors: Nermin A. Morsy, Amany N. Beshay

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The tourism industry has seen considerable transformations due to the emergency of e-commerce. For instance, airlines are increasingly dependent on achieving online sales instead of their traditional platform. Online travel agencies’ (OTAs) websites have been able to reach a broader range of customers and generate more revenue. Therefore, website quality plays an important role in attaining website effectiveness. It is now considered as a critical factor in attracting customers' attention and build loyalty. Customers are more likely to visit and purchase at websites that exhibit highly desirable qualities. A user-friendly website can help tourists find their target information easily and make decisions quickly. This research focuses on analyzing the impact of airline and OTAs’ websites quality on the actual customer usage and purchase intentions. An online survey was distributed among internet users to assess the various dimensions of website quality in the context of online booking and their effect on customer’s usage and purchase intentions. The data from the survey was analyzed statistically using correlation, t-tests and other statistical tests. Results revealed the direct impact of website quality on customer usage and purchase intentions.

Keywords: airlines, OTAs, purchasing intention, website quality

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Authors: Hassan Mohammad Alkomy, Hesham Elkaranshawy, Ahmed Ibrahim Ashour, Khaled Tawfik Mohamed

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For a rigid body sliding on a rough surface, a range of uncertainty or non-uniqueness of solution could be found, which is termed: Painlevé paradox. Painlevé paradox is the reason of a wide range of bouncing motion, observed during sliding of robotic manipulators on rough surfaces. In this research work, the existence of the paradox zone during the sliding motion of a two-link (P-R) robotic manipulator with a unilateral constraint is investigated. Parametric study is performed to investigate the effect of friction, link-length ratio, total height and link-mass ratio on the paradox zone.

Keywords: dynamical system, friction, multibody system, painlevé paradox, robotic systems, sliding robots, unilateral constraint

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