Search results for: predictive index

Authors: Z. Hormozi Moghaddam, M. Mokhtari-Dizaji, M. Movahedin, M. E. Ravari

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Mechanical index (MI) is used for quantifying acoustic cavitation and the relationship between acoustic pressure and the frequency. In this study, modeling of the MI was applied to provide treatment protocol and to understand the effective physical processes on reproducibility of stem cells. The acoustic pressure and MI equations are modeled and solved to estimate optimal MI for 28, 40, 150 kHz and 1 MHz frequencies. Radial and axial acoustic pressure distribution was extracted. To validate the results of the modeling, the acoustic pressure in the water and near field depth was measured by a piston hydrophone. Results of modeling and experiments show that the model is consistent well to experimental results with 0.91 and 0.90 correlation of coefficient (p<0.05) for 1 MHz and 40 kHz. Low intensity ultrasound with 0.40 MI is more effective on the proliferation rate of the spermatogonial stem cells during the seven days of culture, in contrast, high MI has a harmful effect on the spermatogonial stem cells. This model provides proper treatment planning in vitro and in vivo by estimating the cavitation phenomenon.

Keywords: ultrasound, mechanical index, modeling, stem cell

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Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

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Authors: Indrajit Ghosh, Jaydip Roy

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Literacy rate is an important indicator for measurement of human development. But this is not a good one to capture the qualitative dimension of educational attainment of an individual or a society. The overall educational level of an area is an important issue beyond the literacy rate. The overall educational level can be thought of as an outcome of the educational levels of individuals. But there is no well-defined algorithm and mathematical model available to measure the overall educational level of an area. A heuristic approach based on accumulated experience of experts is effective one. It is evident that fuzzy logic offers a natural and convenient framework in modeling various concepts in social science domain. This work suggests the implementation of fuzzy logic to develop a mathematical model for measurement of educational attainment of an area in terms of Education Index. The contribution of the study is two folds: conceptualization of “Education Profile” and proposing a new mathematical model to measure educational attainment in terms of “Education Index”.

Keywords: education index, education profile, fuzzy logic, literacy

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Authors: Ji-Suk Kim, Dong-Pil Kim, Kee-Rae Gang, Yoon Ho Choi

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This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics of butterfly communities according to the habitat characteristics of Korean veins. The survey sites were 12 mountains located in the vein, and 12~30 quadrats (200 in total) were set. The species richness and biodiversity were different according to land use type. Two types of land use (forest and graveyard) showed lower species diversity index values ​​than other land use types. The species abundance was low in the forest and graveyards, and grasslands, forest tops, cultivated areas and urban areas showed relatively high species richness. The altitude was not statistically significant with the number of species of butterflies and biodiversity index. The degree of canopy closure showed a negative correlation. As a result of interspecific correlation analysis, it was confirmed that there was a very high correlation (R2=0.746) between Lycaena phlaeas and Pseudozizeeria maha argia, Choaspes benjaminii japonica and Argyronome ruslana.

Keywords: land use type, species diversity index, correlation, canopy closure

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Authors: A. Luli, A. Santona

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It is rare for individuals that are involved in a relationship to think about the possibility of having procreation problems in the near present or in the future. However, infertility is a condition that affects millions of people all around the world. Often, infertile individuals have to deal with experiences of psychological, relational and social problems. In these cases, they have to review their choices and take into consideration, if it is necessary, new ones. Different studies have examined the different decisions that infertile individuals have to go through dealing with infertility and its treatment, but none of them is focused on the decision-making style used by infertile individuals to solve their problem and on the factors that influences it. The aim of this paper is to define the style of decision-making used by infertile persons to give a solution to the ‘problem’ and the potential predictive role of the attachment and of the dyadic adjustment. The total sample is composed by 251 participants, divided in two groups: the experimental group composed by 114 participants, 62 males and 52 females, age between 25 and 59 years, and the control group composed by 137 participants, 65 males and 72 females, age between 22 and 49 years. The battery of instruments used is composed by: the General Decision Making Style (GDMS), the Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire Revised (ECR-R), Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), and the Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R). The results from the analysis of the samples showed a prevalence of the rational decision-making style for both males and females. No significant statistical difference was found between the experimental and control group. Also the analyses showed a significant statistical relationship between the decision making styles and the adult attachment styles for both males and females. In this case, only for males, there was a significant statistical difference between the experimental and the control group. Another significant statistical relationship was founded between the decision making styles and the adjustment scales for both males and females. Also in this case, the difference between the two groups was founded to be significant only of males. These results contribute to enrich the literature on the subject of decision-making styles in infertile individuals, showing also the predictive role of the attachment styles and the adjustment, confirming in this was the few results in the literature.

Keywords: adjustment, attachment, decision-making style, infertility

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: Tomyslav Sledevič, Artūras Serackis, Gintautas Tamulevičius, Dalius Navakauskas

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This paper presents a comparative evaluation of features extraction algorithm for a real-time isolated word recognition system based on FPGA. The Mel-frequency cepstral, linear frequency cepstral, linear predictive and their cepstral coefficients were implemented in hardware/software design. The proposed system was investigated in the speaker-dependent mode for 100 different Lithuanian words. The robustness of features extraction algorithms was tested recognizing the speech records at different signals to noise rates. The experiments on clean records show highest accuracy for Mel-frequency cepstral and linear frequency cepstral coefficients. For records with 15 dB signal to noise rate the linear predictive cepstral coefficients give best result. The hard and soft part of the system is clocked on 50 MHz and 100 MHz accordingly. For the classification purpose, the pipelined dynamic time warping core was implemented. The proposed word recognition system satisfies the real-time requirements and is suitable for applications in embedded systems.

Keywords: isolated word recognition, features extraction, MFCC, LFCC, LPCC, LPC, FPGA, DTW

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Morbid obesity is a health threatening condition particularly in children. Generally, it leads to the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) characterized by central obesity, elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), triglyceride (TRG), blood pressure values and suppressed high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. However, some ambiguities exist during the diagnosis of MetS in children below 10 years of age. Therefore, clinicians are in the need of some surrogate markers for the laboratory assessment of pediatric MetS. In this study, the aim is to develop an index, which will be more helpful during the evaluation of further risks detected in morbid obese (MO) children. A total of 235 children with normal body mass index (N-BMI), with varying degrees of obesity; overweight (OW), obese (OB), MO as well as MetS participated in this study. The study was approved by the Institutional Ethical Committee. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Obesity states of the children were classified using BMI percentiles adjusted for age and sex. For the purpose, tabulated data prepared by WHO were used. MetS criteria were defined. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure values were measured. Parameters related to glucose and lipid metabolisms were determined. FBG, insulin (INS), HDL-C, TRG concentrations were determined. Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Laboratory (DONMA_LAB) Index [ln TRG/HDL-C*INS] was introduced. Commonly used insulin resistance (IR) indices such as Homeostatic Model Assessment for IR (HOMA-IR) as well as ratios such as TRG/HDL-C, TRG/HDL-C*INS, HDL-C/TRG*INS, TRG/HDL-C*INS/FBG, log, and ln versions of these ratios were calculated. Results were interpreted using statistical package program (SPSS Version 16.0) for Windows. The data were evaluated using appropriate statistical tests. The degree for statistical significance was defined as 0.05. 35 N, 20 OW, 47 OB, 97 MO children and 36 with MetS were investigated. Mean ± SD values of TRG/HDL-C were 1.27 ± 0.69, 1.86 ± 1.08, 2.15 ± 1.22, 2.48 ± 2.35 and 4.61 ± 3.92 for N, OW, OB, MO and MetS children, respectively. Corresponding values for the DONMA_LAB index were 2.17 ± 1.07, 3.01 ± 0.94, 3.41 ± 0.93, 3.43 ± 1.08 and 4.32 ± 1.00. TRG/HDL-C ratio significantly differed between N and MetS groups. On the other hand, DONMA_LAB index exhibited statistically significant differences between N and all the other groups except the OW group. This index was capable of discriminating MO children from those with MetS. Statistically significant elevations were detected in MO children with MetS (p < 0.05). Multiple parameters are commonly used during the assessment of MetS. Upon evaluation of the values obtained for N, OW, OB, MO groups and for MO children with MetS, the [ln TRG/HDL-C*INS] value was unique in discriminating children with MetS.

Keywords: children, index, laboratory, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

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Authors: Ujjwala Bhand, Mridula Goel

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Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) prepared by World Economic Forum has become a benchmark in studying the competitiveness of countries and for understanding the factors that enable competitiveness. Innovation is a key pillar in competitiveness and has the unique property of enabling exponential economic growth. This paper attempts to analyze how the pillars comprising the Global Competitiveness Index affect innovation and whether GDP growth can directly affect innovation outcomes for a country. The key objective of the study is to identify areas on which governments of developing countries can focus policies and programs to improve their country’s innovativeness. We have compiled a panel data set for top innovating countries and large emerging economies called BRICS from 2007-08 to 2014-15 in order to find the significant factors that affect innovation. The results of the regression analysis suggest that government should make policies to improve labor market efficiency, establish sophisticated business networks, provide basic health and primary education to its people and strengthen the quality of higher education and training services in the economy. The achievements of smaller economies on innovation suggest that concerted efforts by governments can counter any size related disadvantage, and in fact can provide greater flexibility and speed in encouraging innovation.

Keywords: innovation, global competitiveness index, BRICS, economic growth

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Authors: Derya Yucel, Nigar Angın, Dürdane Mart, Meltem Turkeri, Volkan Catalkaya, Celal Yucel

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Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) is one of the important legumes widely grown for dietery proteins in semi-arid Mediteranean climatic conditions. To evaluate the genetic diversity with improved heat and drought tolerance capacity in chickpea, thirty-four selected chickpea genotypes were tested under different field-growing conditions (rainfed winter sowing, irrigated-late sowing and rainfed-late sowing) in 2015 growing season. A factorial experiment in randomized complete block design with 3 reps was conducted at the Eastern Mediterranean Research Institute Adana, Turkey. Based on grain yields under different growing conditions, several indices were calculated to identify economically higher-yielding chickpea genotypes with greater heat and drought tolerance capacity. Average across chickpea genotypes, the values of tolerance index, mean productivity, yield index, yield stability index, stress tolerance index, stress susceptibility index, and geometric mean productivity were ranged between 1.1 to 218, 38 to 202, 0.3 to 1.7, 0.2 to 1, 0.1 to 1.2, 0.02 to 1.4, and 36 to 170 for drought stress and 3 to 54, 23 to 118, 0.3 to 1.7, 0.4 to 0.9, 0.2 to 2, 0.2to 2.3, and 23 to 118 for heat stress, respectively. There were highly significant differences observed among the tested chickpea genotypes response to drought and heat stresses. Among the chickpea genotypes, the Aksu, Arda, Çakır, F4 09 (X 05 TH 21-16189), FLIP 03-108 were identified with a higher drought and heat tolerance capacity. Based on our field studies, it is suggested that the drought and heat tolerance indicators of plants can be used by breeders to select stress-resistant economically productive chickpea genotypes suitable to grow under Mediteranean climatic conditions.

Keywords: irrigation, rainfed, stress susceptibility, tolerance indice

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Authors: Sara Tokhi Arab, Rozo Noguchi, Tofeal Ahamed

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Drought is a natural disaster that occurs in a region due to a lack of precipitation and high temperatures over a continuous period or in a single season as a consequence of climate change. Precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures mostly affect the agricultural sector, water resources, socioeconomics, and the environment. Consequently, it causes agricultural product loss, food shortage, famines, migration, and natural resources degradation in a region. Agriculture is the first sector affected by drought. Therefore, it is important to develop an agricultural drought risk and loss assessment to mitigate the drought impact in the agriculture sector. In this context, the main purpose of this study was to assess yield loss using composite drought indices in the drought-affected vineyards. In this study, the CDI was developed for the years 2016 to 2020 by comprising five indices: the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), deviation of NDVI from the long-term mean (NDVI DEV), normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) and precipitation condition index (PCI). Moreover, the quantitative principal component analysis (PCA) approach was used to assign a weight for each input parameter, and then the weights of all the indices were combined into one composite drought index. Finally, Bayesian regularized artificial neural networks (BRANNs) were used to evaluate the yield variation in each affected vineyard. The composite drought index result indicated the moderate to severe droughts were observed across the Kabul Province during 2016 and 2018. Moreover, the results showed that there was no vineyard in extreme drought conditions. Therefore, we only considered the severe and moderated condition. According to the BRANNs results R=0.87 and R=0.94 in severe drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018 and the R= 0.85 and R=0.91 in moderate drought conditions for the years of 2016 and 2018, respectively. In the Kabul Province within the two years drought periods, there was a significate deficit in the vineyards. According to the findings, 2018 had the highest rate of loss almost -7 ton/ha. However, in 2016 the loss rates were about – 1.2 ton/ha. This research will support stakeholders to identify drought affect vineyards and support farmers during severe drought.

Keywords: grapes, composite drought index, yield loss, satellite remote sensing

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Authors: R. Vidhya, M. Navamuniyammal M. Sivakumar, S. Reeta

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The unplanned urbanization affects the environment due to pollution, conditions of the atmosphere, decreased vegetation and the pervious and impervious soil surface. Considered to be a cumulative effect of all these impacts is the Urban Heat Island. In this paper, the urban heat island effect is studied for the Chennai city, TamilNadu, South India using satellite remote sensing data. LANDSAT 8 OLI and TIRS DATA acquired on 9th September 2014 were used to Land Surface Temperature (LST) map, vegetation fraction map, Impervious surface fraction, Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Building Index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) map. The relationship among LST, Vegetation fraction, NDBI, NDWI, and NDVI was calculated. The Chennai city’s Urban Heat Island effect is significant, and the results indicate LST has strong negative correlation with the vegetation present and positive correlation with NDBI. The vegetation is the main factor to control urban heat island effect issues in urban area like Chennai City. This study will help in developing measures to land use planning to reduce the heat effects in urban area based on remote sensing derivatives.

Keywords: land surface temperature, brightness temperature, emissivity, vegetation index

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Authors: Iacopo Testi, Diego Pajarito, Nicoletta Roberto, Carmen Greco

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Today, a consistent segment of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and this proportion will vastly increase in the next decades. Therefore, understanding the key trends in urbanization, likely to unfold over the coming years, is crucial to the implementation of sustainable urban strategies. In parallel, the daily amount of digital data produced will be expanding at an exponential rate during the following years. The analysis of various types of data sets and its derived applications have incredible potential across different crucial sectors such as healthcare, housing, transportation, energy, and education. Nevertheless, in city development, architects and urban planners appear to rely mostly on traditional and analogical techniques of data collection. This paper investigates the prospective of the data science field, appearing to be a formidable resource to assist city managers in identifying strategies to enhance the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of our urban areas. The collection of different new layers of information would definitely enhance planners' capabilities to comprehend more in-depth urban phenomena such as gentrification, land use definition, mobility, or critical infrastructural issues. Specifically, the research results correlate economic, commercial, demographic, and housing data with the purpose of defining the youth economic discomfort index. The statistical composite index provides insights regarding the economic disadvantage of citizens aged between 18 years and 29 years, and results clearly display that central urban zones and more disadvantaged than peripheral ones. The experimental set up selected the city of Rome as the testing ground of the whole investigation. The methodology aims at applying statistical and spatial analysis to construct a composite index supporting informed data-driven decisions for urban planning.

Keywords: data science, spatial analysis, composite index, Rome, urban planning, youth economic discomfort index

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Authors: Tran Dinh Lan, Do Thi Thu Huong

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Among the 17 goals of the United Nations, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, SDG 14.2 and SDG 14.4 under SDG 14 directly address the sustainable management, exploitation, and use of marine ecosystems. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to quantify the level of sustainable use of marine ecosystems, which have been paid attention for more than two decades in the direction of a quantitative approach by indicator and index development using methods of building and analyzing indicators and indices. With the employment of the above methods, over the past two decades, a number of marine ecosystems in Vietnam have been quantitatively evaluated for sustainable use for integrated coastal and marine management. Thirty indicators for sustainable use of marine ecosystems in the Northeast of Vietnam, together with indices, have been developed to assess mangrove, coral, and beach ecosystems. An assessment shows the following results. The mangrove ecosystem declined from sustainable to unsustainable uses in the period 1989-2007. The coral ecosystem in 2003 was at a sensitive point between sustainable and unsustainable uses. The beach ecosystem was evaluated with ten selected beaches in the period 2013-2018, showing that nine beaches are at a sustainable level, and one beach is at an unsustainable level. The Thua Thien-Hue coastal lagoon ecosystem assessed by 21 indicators of environmental vulnerability in 2014 showed less sustainability. The marine ecosystems around the offshore islands of Bach Long Vi, Con Co, and Tho Chu were tested to assess the level of sustainable use by the index of total economic value. The results show that these ecosystems are being used sustainably but are also at risk of falling to an unsustainable level (Tho Chu). The use of the environmental vulnerability index or economic value index to evaluate ecosystem sustainability only reflects parts of the function or value of the system but does not fully reflect the sustainability of the system.

Keywords: index, indicators, sustainability evaluation, Vietnam marine ecosystems

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Authors: Andreas Livera, Spyros Theocharides, Michalis Florides, Charalambos Anastassiou

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A main challenge in the quest for ensuring quality of operation, especially for photovoltaic (PV) systems, is to safeguard the reliability and optimal performance by detecting and diagnosing potential failures and performance losses at early stages or before the occurrence through real-time monitoring, supervision, fault detection, and predictive maintenance. The purpose of this work is to present the functionalities and results related to the development and validation of a software platform for PV assets diagnosis and maintenance. The platform brings together proprietary hardware sensors and software algorithms to enable the early detection and prediction of the most common and critical faults in PV systems. It was validated using field measurements from operating PV systems. The results showed the effectiveness of the platform for detecting faults and losses (e.g., inverter failures, string disconnections, and potential induced degradation) at early stages, forecasting PV power production while also providing recommendations for maintenance actions. Increased PV energy yield production and revenue can be thus achieved while also minimizing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs.

Keywords: failure detection and prediction, operation and maintenance, performance monitoring, photovoltaic, platform, recommendations, predictive maintenance

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Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

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Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

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Authors: Saurabh Kumar

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In the fiercely competitive landscape of e-commerce, understanding and mitigating customer churn has become paramount for sustainable business growth. This paper presents a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning techniques for churn prediction in e-commerce, aiming to provide actionable insights for businesses seeking to enhance customer retention strategies. We conduct a comparative study of various machine learning algorithms, including traditional statistical methods and ensemble techniques, leveraging a rich dataset sourced from Kaggle. Through rigorous evaluation, we assess the predictive performance, interpretability, and scalability of each method, elucidating their respective strengths and limitations in capturing the intricate dynamics of customer churn. We identified the XGBoost classifier to be the best performing. Our findings not only offer practical guidelines for selecting suitable modeling approaches but also contribute to the broader understanding of customer behavior in the e-commerce domain. Ultimately, this research equips businesses with the knowledge and tools necessary to proactively identify and address churn, thereby fostering long-term customer relationships and sustaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: customer churn, e-commerce, machine learning techniques, predictive performance, sustainable business growth

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Authors: Béchir Wanassi, Béchir Azzouz, Taher Halimi, Mohamed Ben Hassen

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Mechanical recycling of post-industrial cotton yarn wastes, as well as the effects of passage number on the properties of reclaimed fibers, have been investigated. A new Modified Fiber Quality Index (MFQI) and Spinning Consistency Index (MSCI) for the characterization of the quality are presented. This index gives the real potential of spinnability according to its physical properties. The best quality of reclaimed fibers (after 7th passage) was used to produce rotor yarns. 100% recycling cotton yarns were produced in open-end spinning system with different rotor speed (i.e. 65000, 70000, and 80000 rpm), opening roller speed (i.e. 7700, 8200, and 8700 rpm) and twist factor (i.e. 137, 165, and 183). The effects of spinning parameters were investigated to evaluate a 100% recycling cotton yarns quality (TQI, hairiness, thin places, and thick places) using DOE method.

Keywords: cotton wastes, DOE, mechanical recycling, rotor spinning

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Amil Suleimanov, Aigul Saduakassova, Denis Vinnikov

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Objective: To assess functional visceral fat (VAT) activity evaluated by ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) as a predictor of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and methods: We assessed 60 patients with histologically confirmed CRC who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT after a surgical treatment and courses of chemotherapy. Age, histology, stage, and tumor grade were recorded. Functional VAT activity was measured by maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) using ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and tested as a predictor of later metastases in eight abdominal locations (RE – Epigastric Region, RLH – Left Hypochondriac Region, RRL – Right Lumbar Region, RU – Umbilical Region, RLL – Left Lumbar Region, RRI – Right Inguinal Region, RP – Hypogastric (Pubic) Region, RLI – Left Inguinal Region) and pelvic cavity (P) in the adjusted regression models. We also report the best areas under the curve (AUC) for SUVmax with the corresponding sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp). Results: In both adjusted for age regression models and ROC analysis, 18F-FDG accumulation in RLH (cutoff SUVmax 0.74; Se 75%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.668; p = 0.049), RU (cutoff SUVmax 0.78; Se 69%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.679; p = 0.035), RRL (cutoff SUVmax 1.05; Se 69%; Sp 77%; AUC 0.682; p = 0.032) and RRI (cutoff SUVmax 0.85; Se 63%; Sp 61%; AUC 0.672; p = 0.043) could predict later metastases in CRC patients, as opposed to age, sex, primary tumor location, tumor grade and histology. Conclusions: VAT SUVmax is significantly associated with later metastases in CRC patients and can be used as their predictor.

Keywords: ¹⁸F-FDG, PET/CT, colorectal cancer, predictive value

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Authors: M. Firoz Kalam, Wilfried Schuetz, Jan Hendrik Bredehoeft

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In this research, diesel oil properties, such as aniline point, density, diesel index, cetane index and cetane number before and after treatment were studied. The investigation was considered for diesel oil samples after batch adsorption process using powdered activated carbon. Batch distillation process was applied to all treated diesel oil samples for separation of the solid-liquid mixture. The diesel oil properties were studied to observe the impact of adsorptive desulfurization process on fuel quality. Results showed that the best cetane number for desulfurized diesel oil was found at the best-operating conditions 60℃, 10g activated carbon and 180 minute contact time. The best-desulfurized diesel oil cetane number was obtained around 51 while the cetane number of untreated diesel oil was 34. Results also showed that the calculated cetane number increases as the operating temperature and amounts of adsorbent increases. This behavior was same for other diesel oil properties such as aniline point, diesel index, cetane index and density. The best value for all the fuel properties was found at same operating conditions mentioned above. Thus, it can be concluded that adsorptive desulfurization using powdered activated carbon as adsorbent had significantly improved the fuel quality of diesel oil by reducing aromatic contents of diesel oil.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorption, desulfurization, diesel oil, fuel quality

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Authors: Dwi Wijiastutik, Tarjo, Yuni Rimawati

Abstract:

The purpose of this empirical study is to analyse how to the market reaction and the conservative degree changes on the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standart (IFRS) through Jakarta Islamic Index. The study also has given others additional analysis on the profitability, capital structure and size company toward IFRS adoption. The data collection methods used in this study reveals as secondary data and deep analysis to the company’s annual report and daily price stock at yahoo finance. We analyse 40 companies listed on Jakarta Islamic Index from 2010 to 2014. The result of the study concluded that IFRS has given a different on the depth analysis to the two of variance analysis: Moderated Regression Analysis and Wilcoxon Signed Rank to test developed hypotheses. Our result on the regression analysis shows that market response and conservatism principle is not significantly after IFRS Adoption in Jakarta Islamic Index. Furthermore, in addition, analysis on profitability, capital structure, and company size show that significantly after IFRS adoption. The findings of our study help investor by showing the impact of IFRS for making decided investment.

Keywords: IFRS, earnings response coefficient, conservatism principle

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Authors: Reza Safdari, Goli Arji, Robab Abdolkhani Maryam zahmatkeshan

Abstract:

Background and purpose: Cardiovascular diseases are among the most common diseases in all societies. The most important step in minimizing myocardial infarction and its complications is to minimize its risk factors. The amount of medical data is increasingly growing. Medical data mining has a great potential for transforming these data into information. Using data mining techniques to generate predictive models for identifying those at risk for reducing the effects of the disease is very helpful. The present study aimed to collect data related to risk factors of heart infarction from patients’ medical record and developed predicting models using data mining algorithm. Methods: The present work was an analytical study conducted on a database containing 350 records. Data were related to patients admitted to Shahid Rajaei specialized cardiovascular hospital, Iran, in 2011. Data were collected using a four-sectioned data collection form. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Clementine version 12. Seven predictive algorithms and one algorithm-based model for predicting association rules were applied to the data. Accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values were determined and the final model was obtained. Results: five parameters, including hypertension, DLP, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and A+ blood group, were the most critical risk factors of myocardial infarction. Among the models, the neural network model was found to have the highest sensitivity, indicating its ability to successfully diagnose the disease. Conclusion: Risk prediction models have great potentials in facilitating the management of a patient with a specific disease. Therefore, health interventions or change in their life style can be conducted based on these models for improving the health conditions of the individuals at risk.

Keywords: decision trees, neural network, myocardial infarction, Data Mining

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

Abstract:

Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, CCR Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain

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Authors: Ali Abojassim, Nabeel Kadhim, Adil Jaber, Ali Hussein

Abstract:

Water quality index (WQI) is valuable and unique rating to depict the total water quality status in a single term that is helpful for the selection of appropriate treatment technique to meet the concerned issues. Fifteen surface water samples were collected from the Euphrates river within AlHaydria is sub district of AL-Najaf (Iraq). The quality of surface water were evaluated by testing various physicochemical parameters such as pH, Total Dissolved Solid (TDS), , Calcium, Chloride, Sulphate and Electrical conductivity. The WQI for all samples were found in the range of 25.92 to 47.22. The highest value of WQI was observed in the Ali Hajj Hassan(SW4,SW8), El Haj Abdel Sayed (SW 10 to SW 12)and Hasan alsab(SW 14) sampling locations. Most of the water samples within study area were found good to moderate categories. most of the water samples for study area were found good as well as moderate categories

Keywords: water quality index, GIS, physicochemical parameters, Iraq Standards for irrigation purpose 2012

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Authors: Mohd Azraei Pangah Pa'at, Mohd Ruzlin Mohd Mokhtar, Norhidayu Rameli, Tashia Marie Anthony, Huzainie Shafi Abd Halim

Abstract:

Partial Discharge (PD) diagnostic mapping testing is one of the main diagnostic testing techniques that are widely used in the field or onsite testing for underground power cable in medium voltage level. The existence of PD activities is an early indication of insulation weakness hence early detection of PD activities can be determined and provides an initial prediction on the condition of the cable. To effectively manage the results of PD Mapping test, it is important to have acceptable criteria to facilitate prioritization of mitigation action. Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) through Distribution Network (DN) division have developed PD severity model name Severity Index (SI) for offline PD mapping test since 2007 based on onsite test experience. However, this severity index recommendation action had never been revised since its establishment. At presence, PD measurements data have been extensively increased, hence the severity level indication and the effectiveness of the recommendation actions can be analyzed and verified again. Based on the new revision, the recommended action to be taken will be able to reflect the actual defect condition. Hence, will be accurately prioritizing preventive action plan and minimizing maintenance expenditure.

Keywords: partial discharge, severity index, diagnostic testing, medium voltage, power cable

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Obesity is a clinical state associated with low-grade inflammation. It is also a major risk factor for insulin resistance (IR). In its advanced stages, metabolic syndrome (MetS), a much more complicated disease which may lead to life-threatening problems, may develop. Obesity-mediated IR seems to correlate with the inflammation. Human studies performed particularly on pediatric population are scarce. The aim of this study is to detect possible associations between inflammation and IR in terms of some related ratios. 549 children were grouped according to their age- and sex-based body mass index (BMI) percentile tables of WHO. MetS components were determined. Informed consent and approval from the Ethics Committee for Clinical Investigations were obtained. The principles of the Declaration of Helsinki were followed. The exclusion criteria were infection, inflammation, chronic diseases and those under drug treatment. Anthropometric measurements were obtained. Complete blood cell, fasting blood glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) analyses were performed. Homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), systemic immune inflammation (SII) index, tense index, alanine aminotransferase to aspartate aminotransferase ratio (ALT/AST), neutrophils to lymphocyte (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte, and lymphocyte to monocyte ratios were calculated. Data were evaluated by statistical analyses. The degree for statistical significance was 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found among the BMI values of the groups (p < 0.001). Strong correlations were detected between the BMI and waist circumference (WC) values in all groups. Tense index values were also correlated with both BMI and WC values in all groups except overweight (OW) children. SII index values of children with normal BMI were significantly different from the values obtained in OW, obese, morbid obese and MetS groups. Among all the other lymphocyte ratios, NLR exhibited a similar profile. Both HOMA-IR and ALT/AST values displayed an increasing profile from N towards MetS3 group. BMI and WC values were correlated with HOMA-IR and ALT/AST. Both in morbid obese and MetS groups, significant correlations between CRP versus SII index as well as HOMA-IR versus ALT/AST were found. ALT/AST and HOMA-IR values were correlated with NLR in morbid obese group and with SII index in MetS group, (p < 0.05), respectively. In conclusion, these findings showed that some parameters may exhibit informative differences between the early and late stages of obesity. Important associations among HOMA-IR, ALT/AST, NLR and SII index have come to light in the morbid obese and MetS groups. This study introduced the SII index and NLR as important inflammatory markers for the discrimination of normal and obese children. Interesting links were observed between inflammation and IR in morbid obese children and those with MetS, both being late stages of obesity.

Keywords: children, inflammation, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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