Search results for: penalized regression

Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

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Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Fidelia A. Orji, Julita Vassileva

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This research aims to develop machine learning models for students' academic performance and study strategy prediction, which could be generalized to all courses in higher education. Key learning attributes (intrinsic, extrinsic, autonomy, relatedness, competence, and self-esteem) used in building the models are chosen based on prior studies, which revealed that the attributes are essential in students’ learning process. Previous studies revealed the individual effects of each of these attributes on students’ learning progress. However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of the attributes in predicting student study strategy and academic performance to reduce the dropout rate. To bridge this gap, we used Scikit-learn in python to build five machine learning models (Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, Linear/Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine) for both regression and classification tasks to perform our analysis. The models were trained, evaluated, and tested for accuracy using 924 university dentistry students' data collected by Chilean authors through quantitative research design. A comparative analysis of the models revealed that the tree-based models such as the random forest (with prediction accuracy of 94.9%) and decision tree show the best results compared to the linear, support vector, and k-nearest neighbours. The models built in this research can be used in predicting student performance and study strategy so that appropriate interventions could be implemented to improve student learning progress. Thus, incorporating strategies that could improve diverse student learning attributes in the design of online educational systems may increase the likelihood of students continuing with their learning tasks as required. Moreover, the results show that the attributes could be modelled together and used to adapt/personalize the learning process.

Keywords: classification models, learning strategy, predictive modeling, regression models, student academic performance, student motivation, supervised machine learning

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Authors: Santi Gopal Maji, R. A. J. Syngkon

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The changing attitude of the corporate enterprises from maximizing economic benefit to corporate sustainability after the publication of Brundtland Report has attracted the interest of researchers to investigate the sustainability practices of firms and its impact on financial performance. To enrich the empirical literature in Asian context, this study examines the disclosure pattern of corporate sustainability and the influence of sustainability reporting on financial performance of firms from four Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, India and Indonesia) that are publishing sustainability report continuously from 2009 to 2016. The study has used content analysis technique based on Global Reporting Framework (3 and 3.1) reporting framework to compute the disclosure score of corporate sustainability and its components. While dichotomous coding system has been employed to compute overall quantitative disclosure score, a four-point scale has been used to access the quality of the disclosure. For analysing the disclosure pattern of corporate sustainability, box plot has been used. Further, Pearson chi-square test has been used to examine whether there is any difference in the proportion of disclosure between the countries. Finally, quantile regression model has been employed to examine the influence of corporate sustainability reporting on the difference locations of the conditional distribution of firm performance. The findings of the study indicate that Japan has occupied first position in terms of disclosure of sustainability information followed by South Korea and India. In case of Indonesia, the quality of disclosure score is considerably less as compared to other three countries. Further, the gap between the quality and quantity of disclosure score is comparatively less in Japan and South Korea as compared to India and Indonesia. The same is evident in respect of the components of sustainability. The results of quantile regression indicate that a positive impact of corporate sustainability becomes stronger at upper quantiles in case of Japan and South Korea. But the study fails to extricate any definite pattern on the impact of corporate sustainability disclosure on the financial performance of firms from Indonesia and India.

Keywords: corporate sustainability, quality and quantity of disclosure, content analysis, quantile regression, Asian countries

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Authors: Gadinga Walter Forje, Martin Ngankam Tchamba, Nyong Princely Awazi, Barnabas Neba Nfornka

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Ecotourism is viewed as a double edge sword for the enhancement of conservation and local livelihood within a protected landscape. The Campo Ma’an National Park (CMNP) adopted ecotourism in its management plan as a strategic axis for better management of the park. The growing importance of ecotourism as a strategy for the sustainable management of CMNP and its environs requires adequate information to bolster the sector. This study was carried out between November 2018 and September 2021, with the main objective to contribute to the sustainable management of the CMNP through suggestions for enhancing the capacity of ecotourism in and around the park. More specifically, the study aimed at; 1) Analyse the governance of ecotourism in the CMNP and its surrounding; 2) Assessing the impact of ecotourism on local livelihood around the CMNP; 3) Evaluating the contribution of ecotourism to biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP; 4) Evaluate the determinants of ecotourism possibilities in achieving sustainable livelihood and biodiversity conservation in and around the CMNP. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were obtained from household surveys (N=124), focus group discussions (N=8), and key informant interviews (N=16). Data collected were coded and imputed into SPSS (version 19.0) software and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Findings from the Chi-square test revealed overall poor ecotourism governance in and around the CMNP, with benefit sharing (X2 = 122.774, p <0.01) and conflict management (X2 = 90.839, p<0.01) viewed to be very poor. For the majority of the local population sampled, 65% think ecotourism does not contribute to local livelihood around CMNP. The main factors influencing the impact of ecotourism around the CMNP on the local population’s livelihood were gender (logistic regression (β) = 1.218; p = 0.000); and level of education (logistic regression (β) = 0.442; p = 0.000). Furthermore, 55.6% of the local population investigated believed ecotourism activities do not contribute to the biodiversity conservation of CMNP. Spearman correlation between socio-economic variables and ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation indicated relationships with gender (r = 0.200, p = 0.032), main occupation (r = 0.300 p = 0.012), time spent in the community (r = 0.287 p = 0.017), and number of children (r =-0.286 p = 0.018). Variables affecting ecotourism impact on biodiversity conservation were age (logistic regression (β) = -0.683; p = 0.037) and gender (logistic regression (β) = 0.917; p = 0.045). This study recommends the development of ecotourism-friendly policies that can accelerate Public Private Partnership for the sustainable management of the CMNP as a commitment toward good governance. It also recommends the development of gender-sensitive ecotourism packages, with fair opportunities for rural women and more parity in benefit sharing to improve livelihood and contribute more to biodiversity conservation in and around the Park.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, Campo Ma’an national park, ecotourism, ecotourism governance, rural livelihoods, protected area management

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Authors: Md Rezaul Karim, Farha Taznin

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The purpose of this study was to assess and describe the individual and household characteristics of farmers, to measure the attitude of farmers towards climate adaptation farming practices and to explore the individual and household factors contributing in predicting their attitude towards climate adaptation farming practices. Data were collected through personal interviews using a pre-tested interview schedule. The data collection was done at Biral Upazila under Dinajpur district in Bangladesh from 1st November to 15 December 2018. Besides descriptive statistical parameters, Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r), multiple regression and step-wise multiple regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Findings indicated that the highest proportion (77.6 percent) of the farmers had moderately favorable attitudes, followed by only 11.2 percent with highly favorable attitudes and 11.2 percent with slightly favorable attitudes towards climate adaptation farming practices. According to the computed correlation coefficients (r), among the 10 selected factors, five of them, such as education of household head, farm size, annual household income, organizational participation, and information access by extension services, had a significant relationship with the attitude of farmers towards climate-smart practices. The step-wise multiple regression results showed that two characteristics as education of household head and information access by extension services, contributed 26.2% and 5.1%, respectively, in predicting farmers' attitudes towards climate adaptation farming practices. In addition, more than two-thirds of farmers cited their opinion to the problems in response to ‘price of vermi species is high and it is not easily available’ as 1st ranked problem, followed by ‘lack of information for innovative climate-smart technologies’. This study suggests that policy implications are necessary to promote extension education and information services and overcome the obstacles to climate adaptation farming practices. It further recommends that research study should be conducted in diverse contexts of nationally or globally.

Keywords: factors, attitude, climate adaptation, farming practices, Bangladesh

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: David X. Dong, Qingming Zhang, Meng Lu

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Nitrites enter waterways as runoff from croplands and are discharged from many industrial sites. Excessive nitrite inputs to water bodies lead to eutrophication. On-site rapid detection of nitrite is of increasing interest for managing fertilizer application and monitoring water source quality. Existing methods for detecting nitrites use spectrophotometry, ion chromatography, electrochemical sensors, ion-selective electrodes, chemiluminescence, and colorimetric methods. However, these methods either suffer from high cost or provide low measurement accuracy due to their poor selectivity to nitrites. Therefore, it is desired to develop an accurate and economical method to monitor nitrites in environments. We report a low-cost optical sensor, in conjunction with a machine learning (ML) approach to enable high-accuracy detection of nitrites in water sources. The sensor works under the principle of measuring molecular absorptions of nitrites at three narrowband wavelengths (295 nm, 310 nm, and 357 nm) in the ultraviolet (UV) region. These wavelengths are chosen because they have relatively high sensitivity to nitrites; low-cost light-emitting devices (LEDs) and photodetectors are also available at these wavelengths. A regression model is built, trained, and utilized to minimize cross-sensitivities of these wavelengths to the same analyte, thus achieving precise and reliable measurements with various interference ions. The measured absorbance data is input to the trained model that can provide nitrite concentration prediction for the sample. The sensor is built with i) a miniature quartz cuvette as the test cell that contains a liquid sample under test, ii) three low-cost UV LEDs placed on one side of the cell as light sources, with each LED providing a narrowband light, and iii) a photodetector with a built-in amplifier and an analog-to-digital converter placed on the other side of the test cell to measure the power of transmitted light. This simple optical design allows measuring the absorbance data of the sample at the three wavelengths. To train the regression model, absorbances of nitrite ions and their combination with various interference ions are first obtained at the three UV wavelengths using a conventional spectrophotometer. Then, the spectrophotometric data are inputs to different regression algorithm models for training and evaluating high-accuracy nitrite concentration prediction. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach enables instantaneous nitrite detection within several seconds. The sensor hardware costs about one hundred dollars, which is much cheaper than a commercial spectrophotometer. The ML algorithm helps to reduce the average relative errors to below 3.5% over a concentration range from 0.1 ppm to 100 ppm of nitrites. The sensor has been validated to measure nitrites at three sites in Ames, Iowa, USA. This work demonstrates an economical and effective approach to the rapid, reagent-free determination of nitrites with high accuracy. The integration of the low-cost optical sensor and ML data processing can find a wide range of applications in environmental monitoring and management.

Keywords: optical sensor, regression model, nitrites, water quality

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Authors: Ahmet Oguz Akturk, Kemal Izci, Gurbuz Caliskan, Ismail Sahin

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Rapid developments in technology are to necessitate societies to closely follow technological developments and change themselves to adopt those developments. It is obvious that one of the areas that are impacted from technological developments is education. Analyzing preservice teachers’ attitudes toward technology is crucial for both educational and professional purposes since teacher candidates are essential for educating future individual living in technological age. In this study, it is aimed to analyze preservice teachers’ attitudes toward technology and some variables (e.g., gender, daily internet usage and possessed technological devices) that predicting those attitudes. In this study, relational survey model used as research method and 329 preservice teachers who are studying in a large university located at the middle part of Turkey are voluntarily participated. Results of the study showed that mostly preservice teachers displayed positive attitudes toward technology while male preservice teachers’ attitudes toward technology was more positive than female preservice teachers. In order to analyze predicting factors for preservice teachers’ attitudes toward technology, stepwise multiple regressions were utilized. The results of stepwise multiple regression showed that daily internet use was the most strong predicting factor for predicting preservice teachers’ attitudes toward technology.

Keywords: attitudes toward technology, preservice teachers, gender, stepwise multiple regression analysis

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Authors: Adewoyin O. Olusegun, Akinwumi I. Isaac

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In some part of the world where legislations related to site investigations before constructions are not strictly enforced, the expenses and time required for carrying out a comprehensive geotechnical investigation to characterize a site can discourage prospective private residential building developers. Another factor that can discourage a developer is the fact that most of the geotechnical tests procedures utilized during site investigations, to a certain extent, alter the existing environment of the site. This study suggests a quick, non-destructive and non-intrusive method of obtaining key subsoil geotechnical properties necessary for foundation design for proposed engineering facilities. Seismic wave velocities generated from near surface refraction method was used to determine the bulk density of soil, Young’s modulus, bulk modulus, shear modulus and allowable bearing capacity of a competent layer that can bear structural load at the particular study site. Also, regression equations were developed in order to directly obtain the bulk density of soil, Young’s modulus, bulk modulus, shear modulus and allowable bearing capacity from the compressional wave velocities. The results obtained correlated with the results of standard geotechnical investigations carried out.

Keywords: characterize, environment, geophysical, geotechnical, regression

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Authors: Kasim Görenekli, Ali Gülbağ

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This study presents a comprehensive analysis of water consumption patterns in Kocaeli province, Turkey, utilizing various machine learning approaches. We analyzed data from 5,000 water subscribers across residential, commercial, and official categories over an 80-month period from January 2016 to August 2022, resulting in a total of 400,000 records. The dataset encompasses water consumption records, weather information, weekends and holidays, previous months' consumption, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.We implemented and compared several machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), XGBoost, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was applied to optimize hyperparameters for all models.Our results demonstrate varying performance across subscriber types and models. For official subscribers, Random Forest achieved the highest R² of 0.699 with PSO optimization. For commercial subscribers, Linear Regression performed best with an R² of 0.730 with PSO. Residential water usage proved more challenging to predict, with XGBoost achieving the highest R² of 0.572 with PSO.The study identified key factors influencing water consumption, with previous months' consumption, meter diameter, and weather conditions being among the most significant predictors. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption patterns was also observed, particularly in residential usage.This research provides valuable insights for effective water resource management in Kocaeli and similar regions, considering Turkey's high water loss rate and below-average per capita water supply. The comparative analysis of different machine learning approaches offers a comprehensive framework for selecting appropriate models for water consumption prediction in urban settings.

Keywords: mMachine learning, water consumption prediction, particle swarm optimization, COVID-19, water resource management

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang, Chun-Kai Liu

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In this study, the patients that have undergone total knee replacement surgery from the 2010 National Health Insurance database were adopted as the study participants. The important factors were screened and selected through literature collection and interviews with physicians. Through the Cross Entropy Method (CE), Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression (GALR), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), the weights of the factors were obtained. In addition, the weights of the respective algorithms, coupled with the Excel VBA were adopted to construct the Case Based Reasoning (CBR) system. The results through statistical tests show that the GALR and PSO produced no significant differences, and the accuracy of both models were above 97%. Moreover, the area under the curve of ROC for these two models also exceeded 0.87. This study shall serve as a reference for medical staff as an assistance for clinical assessment of infections in order to effectively enhance medical service quality and efficiency, avoid unnecessary medical waste, and substantially contribute to resource allocations in medical institutions.

Keywords: Case Based Reasoning, Cross Entropy Method, Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization, Total Knee Replacement Surgery

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Authors: Davut Disci

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Objective: to measure the factors affecting expectations and intentions of using mobile phone in educational contexts by university students, using advanced equations and modeling techniques. Design and Methodology: According to the literature, Mobile Addiction, Parental Surveillance- Safety/Security, Social Relations, and Mobile Behavior are most used terms of defining mobile use of people. Therefore these variables are tried to be measured to find and estimate their effects on expectations and intentions of using mobile phone in educational context. 421 university students participated in this study and there are 229 Female and 192 Male students. For the purpose of examining the mobile behavior and educational expectations and intentions, a questionnaire is prepared and applied to the participants who had to answer all the questions online. Furthermore, responses to close-ended questions are analyzed by using The Statistical Package for Social Sciences(SPSS) software, reliabilities are measured by Cronbach’s Alpha analysis and hypothesis are examined via using Multiple Regression and Linear Regression analysis and the model is tested with Structural Equation Modeling(SEM) technique which is important for testing the model scientifically. Besides these responses, open-ended questions are taken into consideration. Results: When analyzing data gathered from close-ended questions, it is found that Mobile Addiction, Parental Surveillance, Social Relations and Frequency of Using Mobile Phone Applications are affecting the mobile behavior of the participants in different levels, helping them to use mobile phone in educational context. Moreover, as for open-ended questions, participants stated that they use many mobile applications in their learning environment in terms of contacting with friends, watching educational videos, finding course material via internet. They also agree in that mobile phone brings greater flexibility to their lives. According to the SEM results the model is not evaluated and it can be said that it may be improved to show in SEM besides in multiple regression. Conclusion: This study shows that the specified model can be used by educationalist, school authorities to improve their learning environment.

Keywords: education, mobile behavior, mobile learning, technology, Turkey

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Authors: A. F. Suleimanov, A. B. Saduakassova, V. S. Pokrovsky, D. V. Vinnikov

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Relevance: Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is the most lethal gynecological malignancy, with relapse occurring in about 70% of advanced cases with poor prognoses. The aim of the study was to evaluate functional visceral fat activity (VAT) evaluated by ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) as a predictor of metastases in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Materials and methods: We assessed 53 patients with histologically confirmed EOC who underwent ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT after a surgical treatment and courses of chemotherapy. Age, histology, stage, and tumor grade were recorded. Functional VAT activity was measured by maximum standardized uptake value (SUVₘₐₓ) using ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT and tested as a predictor of later metastases in eight abdominal locations (RE – Epigastric Region, RLH – Left Hypochondriac Region, RRL – Right Lumbar Region, RU – Umbilical Region, RLL – Left Lumbar Region, RRI – Right Inguinal Region, RP – Hypogastric (Pubic) Region, RLI – Left Inguinal Region) and pelvic cavity (P) in the adjusted regression models. We also identified the best areas under the curve (AUC) for SUVₘₐₓ with the corresponding sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp). Results: In both adjusted-for regression models and ROC analysis, ¹⁸F-FDG accumulation in RE (cut-off SUVₘₐₓ 1.18; Se 64%; Sp 64%; AUC 0.669; p = 0.035) could predict later metastases in EOC patients, as opposed to age, sex, primary tumor location, tumor grade, and histology. Conclusions: VAT SUVₘₐₓ is significantly associated with later metastases in EOC patients and can be used as their predictor.

Keywords: ¹⁸F-FDG, PET/CT, EOC, predictive value

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Authors: Davut Disci

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Objective: to measure the factors affecting expectations and intentions of using mobile phone in educational contexts by university students, using advanced equations and modeling techniques. Design and Methodology: According to the literature, Mobile Addiction, Parental Surveillance-Safety/Security, Social Relations, and Mobile Behavior are most used terms of defining mobile use of people. Therefore, these variables are tried to be measured to find and estimate their effects on expectations and intentions of using mobile phone in educational context. 421 university students participated in this study and there are 229 Female and 192 Male students. For the purpose of examining the mobile behavior and educational expectations and intentions, a questionnaire is prepared and applied to the participants who had to answer all the questions online. Furthermore, responses to close-ended questions are analyzed by using The Statistical Package for Social Sciences(SPSS) software, reliabilities are measured by Cronbach’s Alpha analysis and hypothesis are examined via using Multiple Regression and Linear Regression analysis and the model is tested with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique which is important for testing the model scientifically. Besides these responses, open-ended questions are taken into consideration. Results: When analyzing data gathered from close-ended questions, it is found that Mobile Addiction, Parental Surveillance, Social Relations and Frequency of Using Mobile Phone Applications are affecting the mobile behavior of the participants in different levels, helping them to use mobile phone in educational context. Moreover, as for open-ended questions, participants stated that they use many mobile applications in their learning environment in terms of contacting with friends, watching educational videos, finding course material via internet. They also agree in that mobile phone brings greater flexibility to their lives. According to the SEM results the model is not evaluated and it can be said that it may be improved to show in SEM besides in multiple regression. Conclusion: This study shows that the specified model can be used by educationalist, school authorities to improve their learning environment.

Keywords: learning technology, instructional technology, mobile learning, technology

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Authors: Gamze Sekeroglu, Mikail Altan

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Working capital is identified as firm’s all current assets. Inventories which are one of the working capital elements are very important among current assets for firms. Because, profitability is an indicator for firms’ financial success is provided with minimum cost and optimum inventory quantity. So in this study, it is investigated as comparatively that the effect of inventory management on the profitability of Turkish firms which operated in weaving industry, eatables industry, wholesale and retail industry in between 2003 – 2012 years. Research data consist of profitability ratios and inventory turnovers ratio calculated by using balance sheets and income statements of firms which operated in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). In this research, the relationship between inventories and profitability is investigated by using SPSS-20 software with regression and correlation analysis. The results achieved from three industry departments which exist in study interpreted as comparatively. Accordingly, it is determined that there is a positive relationship between inventory management and profitability in eatables industry. However, it was founded that there is no relationship between inventory management and profitability in weaving industry and wholesale and retail industry.

Keywords: profitability, regression analysis, inventory management, working capital

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal

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This paper explores the impact of the extent of a company's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on credit rating and capital structure. The analysis is based on a sample of 202 firms from the 350 FTSE firms over the period of 2008-2013. ESG disclosure score is measured using Proprietary Bloomberg score based on the extent of a company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosure. The credit rating is measured by The QuiScore, which is a measure of the likelihood that a company will become bankrupt in the twelve months following the date of calculation. The Capital Structure is measured by long term debt ratio. Two hypotheses are test using panel data regression. The results suggested that the higher degree of ESG disclosure leads to better credit rating. There is significant negative relationship between ESG disclosure and the long term debit percentage. The paper includes implications for the transparency which is resulting of the ESG disclosure could support the Monitoring Function. The monitoring role of disclosure is the increasing in the transparency of the credit rating agencies, also it could affect on managers’ actions. This study provides empirical evidence on the material of ESG disclosure on credit ratings changes and the firms’ capital decision making.

Keywords: capital structure, credit rating agencies, ESG disclosure, panel data regression

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Authors: Priyadarsini Samal, Rajesh Singla

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Many mobile games come with the benefits of entertainment by introducing stress to the human brain. In recognizing this mental stress, the brain-computer interface (BCI) plays an important role. It has various neuroimaging approaches which help in analyzing the brain signals. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most commonly used method among them as it is non-invasive, portable, and economical. Here, this paper investigates the pattern in brain signals when introduced with mental stress. Two healthy volunteers played a game whose aim was to search hidden words from the grid, and the levels were chosen randomly. The EEG signals during gameplay were recorded to investigate the impacts of stress with the changing levels from easy to medium to hard. A total of 16 features of EEG were analyzed for this experiment which includes power band features with relative powers, event-related desynchronization, along statistical features. Support vector machine was used as the classifier, which resulted in an accuracy of 93.9% for three-level stress analysis; for two levels, the accuracy of 92% and 98% are achieved. In addition to that, another game that was similar in nature was played by the volunteers. A suitable regression model was designed for prediction where the feature sets of the first and second game were used for testing and training purposes, respectively, and an accuracy of 73% was found.

Keywords: brain computer interface, electroencephalogram, regression model, stress, word search

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Authors: H. Bonakdari, I. Ebtehaj

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The prediction of scour depth around bridge piers is frequently considered in river engineering. One of the key aspects in efficient and optimum bridge structure design is considered to be scour depth estimation around bridge piers. In this study, scour depth around bridge piers is estimated using two methods, namely the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, the effective parameters in scour depth prediction are determined using the ANN and ANFIS methods via dimensional analysis, and subsequently, the parameters are predicted. In the current study, the methods’ performances are compared with the nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The results show that both methods presented in this study outperform existing methods. Moreover, using the ratio of pier length to flow depth, ratio of median diameter of particles to flow depth, ratio of pier width to flow depth, the Froude number and standard deviation of bed grain size parameters leads to optimal performance in scour depth estimation.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN), bridge pier, scour depth, nonlinear regression (NLR)

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Authors: Uwe C. Fischer

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Mental health and well-being for employees working in the human service system are getting more and more important given the increasing rate of absenteeism at work. Besides individual capacities, social and community factors seem to be important in the working setting. Starting from a demand resource framework including the classical demand control aspects, social support systems, specific demands and resources of the client work, and work-family conflict were considered in the present study. We state hypothetically, that these factors have a meaningful association with the mental quality of life of employees working in the field of social, educational and health sectors. 1140 employees, working in human service organizations (education, youth care, nursing etc.) were asked for strains and resources at work (selected scales from Salutogenetic Subjective Work Assessment SALSA and own new scales for client work), work-family conflict, and mental quality of life from the German Short Form Health Survey. Considering the complex influences of the variables, we conducted a multiple hierarchical regression analysis. One third of the whole variance of the mental quality of life can be declared by the different variables of the model. When the variables concerning social influences were included in the hierarchical regression, the influence of work related control resource decreased. Excessive workload, work-family conflict, social support by supervisors, co-workers and other persons outside work, as well as strains and resources associated with client work had significant regression coefficients. Conclusions: Social support systems are crucial in the social, educational and health related service sector, regarding the influence on mental well-being. Especially the work-family conflict focuses on the importance of the work-life balance. Also the specific strains and resources of the client work, measured with new constructed scales, showed great impact on mental health. Therefore occupational health promotion should focus more on the social factors within and outside the working place.

Keywords: client interaction, human service system, mental health, social support, work-family conflict

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Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

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Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm^–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R² = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R² = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA

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Authors: Ali Heyrani, Maryam Saidyousefi

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The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between emotional intelligence and Self-Efficacy of physical education teachers in Ilam province. The research method is descriptive correlational. The study participants were of 170 physical education teachers (90 males, 80 females) with an age range of 20 to 50 years, who were selected randomly. The instruments for data collection were Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire Bar-on (1997) to assess the Emotional Intelligence teachers and Self-Efficacy Questionnaire to measure their Self-Efficacy. The questionnaires used in the interior are reliable and valid. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics and inferential tests (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Pearson correlation and multiple regression) at a significance level of P <0/ 05 were used. The Results showed that there is a significant positive relationship between totall emotional intelligence and Self-Efficacy of teachers, so the more emotional intelligence of physical education teachers the better the extent of Self-Efficacy. Also, the results arising from regression analysis gradually showed that among components of emotional intelligence, three components, the General Mood, Adaptability, and Interpersonal Communication to Self-Efficacy are of a significant positive relationship and are able to predict the Self-Efficacy of physical education teachers. It seems the application of this study ҆s results can help to education authorities to promote the level of teachers’ emotional intelligence and therefore the improvement of their Self-Efficacy and success in learners’ teaching and training.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, self-efficacy, physical education teachers, Ilam province

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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Authors: Ebru Turgal, Beyza Doganay Erdogan

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Machine learning aims to model the relationship between the response and features. Medical decision-making researchers would like to make decisions about patients’ course and treatment, by examining the repeated measurements over time. Boosting approach is now being used in machine learning area for these aims as an influential tool. The aim of this study is to show the usage of multivariate tree boosting in this field. The main reason for utilizing this approach in the field of decision-making is the ease solutions of complex relationships. To show how multivariate tree boosting method can be used to identify important features and feature-time interaction, we used the data, which was collected retrospectively from Ankara University Chest Diseases Department records. Dataset includes repeated PF ratio measurements. The follow-up time is planned for 120 hours. A set of different models is tested. In conclusion, main idea of classification with weighed combination of classifiers is a reliable method which was shown with simulations several times. Furthermore, time varying variables will be taken into consideration within this concept and it could be possible to make accurate decisions about regression and survival problems.

Keywords: boosted multivariate trees, longitudinal data, multivariate regression tree, panel data

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Authors: Seun Mayowa Sunday

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Loan prediction is one of the most significant and recognised fields of research in the banking, insurance, and the financial security industries. Some prediction systems on the market include the construction of static software. However, due to the fact that static software only operates with strictly regulated rules, they cannot aid customers beyond these limitations. Application of many machine learning (ML) techniques are required for loan prediction. Four separate machine learning models, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), and logistic regression, are used to create the loan prediction model. Using the anaconda navigator and the required machine learning (ML) libraries, models are created and evaluated using the appropriate measuring metrics. From the finding, the random forest performs with the highest accuracy of 80.17% which was later implemented into the Django framework. For real-time testing, the web application is deployed on the Alibabacloud which is among the top 4 biggest cloud computing provider. Hence, to the best of our knowledge, this research will serve as the first academic paper which combines the model development and the Django framework, with the deployment into the Alibaba cloud computing application.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, django, cloud computing, alibaba cloud

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Authors: Qasem Qananwah, Ahmad Dagamseh, Hiam AlQuran, Khalid Shaker Ibrahim

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Blood pressure helps the physicians greatly to have a deep insight into the cardiovascular system. The determination of individual blood pressure is a standard clinical procedure considered for cardiovascular system problems. The conventional techniques to measure blood pressure (e.g. cuff method) allows a limited number of readings for a certain period (e.g. every 5-10 minutes). Additionally, these systems cause turbulence to blood flow; impeding continuous blood pressure monitoring, especially in emergency cases or critically ill persons. In this paper, the most important statistical features in the photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals were extracted to estimate the blood pressure noninvasively. PPG signals from more than 40 subjects were measured and analyzed and 12 features were extracted. The features were fed to principal component analysis (PCA) to find the most important independent features that have the highest correlation with blood pressure. The results show that the stiffness index means and standard deviation for the beat-to-beat heart rate were the most important features. A model representing both features for Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) and Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) was obtained using a statistical regression technique. Surface fitting is used to best fit the series of data and the results show that the error value in estimating the SBP is 4.95% and in estimating the DBP is 3.99%.

Keywords: blood pressure, noninvasive optical system, principal component analysis, PCA, continuous monitoring

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Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

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The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

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Authors: Zoe Chang, Max Williams, Gautham Das

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the incorporation of hemp fibers (HF) in concrete. Hemp fiber reinforced concrete (HFRC) is becoming more popular as an alternative for regular mix designs. This study was done to evaluate the compressive strength of HFRC regarding mix procedure. Hemp fibers were obtained from the manufacturer and hand-processed to ensure uniformity in width and length. The fibers were added to the concrete as both wet and dry mixes to investigate and optimize the mix design process. Results indicated that the dry mix had a compressive strength of 1157 psi compared to the wet mix of 985 psi. This dry mix compressive strength was within range of the standard mix compressive strength of 1533 psi. The statistical analysis revealed that the mix design process needs further optimization and uniformity concerning the addition of HF. Regression analysis revealed the standard mix design had a coefficient of 0.9 as compared to the dry mix of 0.375, indicating a variation in the mixing process. While completing the dry mix, the addition of plain hemp fibers caused them to intertwine, creating lumps and inconsistency. However, during the wet mixing process, combining water and hemp fibers before incorporation allows the fibers to uniformly disperse within the mix; hence the regression analysis indicated a better coefficient of 0.55. This study concludes that HRFC is a viable alternative to regular mixes; however, more research surrounding its characteristics needs to be conducted.

Keywords: hemp fibers, hemp reinforced concrete, wet & dry, freeze thaw testing, compressive strength

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Authors: Wenting Zhang, Shishi Liu, Peihong Fu

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As an indicator of air quality and directly related to concentration of ground PM2.5, the spatial-temporal variation and impact factor analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) have been a hot spot in air pollution. This paper concerns the non-stationarity and the autocorrelation (with Moran’s I index of 0.75) of the AOD in Wuhan agglomeration (WHA), in central China, uses the geographically weighted regression (GRW) to identify the spatial relationship of AOD and its impact factors. The 3 km AOD product of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) is used in this study. Beyond the economic-social factor, land use density factors, vegetable cover, and elevation, the landscape metric is also considered as one factor. The results suggest that the GWR model is capable of dealing with spatial varying relationship, with R square, corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and standard residual better than that of ordinary least square (OLS) model. The results of GWR suggest that the urban developing, forest, landscape metric, and elevation are the major driving factors of AOD. Generally, the higher AOD trends to located in the place with higher urban developing, less forest, and flat area.

Keywords: aerosol optical depth, geographically weighted regression, land use change, Wuhan agglomeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Rafia Rafique, Mutmina Zainab

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The present study investigated the relationship between fear of negative evaluation (FNE), social support and well-being in people with Vitiligo. It was hypothesized that low level of FNE and greater social support is likely to predict well-being. It was also hypothesized that social support is likely to moderate the relationship between FNE and well-being. Correlational research design was used for the present study. Non-probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect a sample (N=122) of people with Vitiligo. Hierarchical Moderated Regression analysis was used to test prediction and moderation. Brief Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) and Mental Health Continuum-Short form (MHC-SF) were used to evaluate the study variables. Fear of negative evaluation negatively predicted well-being (emotional and psychological). Social support from significant others and friends predicted social well-being. Social Support from family predicted emotional and psychological well-being. It was found that social support from significant others moderated the relationship between FNE and emotional well-being and social support from family moderated the relationship between FNE and social well-being. Dermatologists treating people with Vitiligo need to educate them and their families about the buffering role of social support (family and significant others). Future studies need to focus on other important mediating factors that can possibly explain the relationship between fear of negative evaluation and wellbeing.

Keywords: fear of negative evaluation, hierarchical moderated regression, vitiligo, well-being

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Authors: Hassan Barau Singhry

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Purpose: Leadership or the absence of it is an important behaviour affecting employees’ job satisfaction. Although, there are many models of leadership, one that stands out in a period of change is the transformational behaviour. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of an organizational justice on the relationship between transformational leadership and employee job satisfaction. The study is based on the assumption that change begins with leaders and leaders should be fair and just. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey through structured questionnaire was employed to collect the data of this study. The population is selected the three tiers of government such as the local, state, and federal governments in Nigeria. The sampling method used in this research is stratified random sampling. 418 middle managers of public organizations respondents to the questionnaire. Multiple regression aided by structural equation modeling was employed to test 4 hypothesized relationships. Finding: The regression results support for the mediating role of organizational justice such as distributive, procedural, interpersonal and informational justice in the link between transformational leadership and job satisfaction. Originality/value: This study adds to the literature of human resource management by empirically validating and integrating transformational leadership behaviour with the four dimensions of organizational justice theory. The study is expected to be beneficial to the top and middle-level administrators as well as theory building and testing.

Keywords: distributive justice, job satisfaction, organizational justice, procedural justice, transformational leadership

Procedia PDF Downloads 174