Search results for: idiosyncratic economic shocks

Authors: Evy Latifah, Eko Widaryanto, M. Dawam Maghfoer, Arifin

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Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) is potential vegetables to develop, because it has high economic value and has the potential to be exported. There is a decrease in tomato productivity due to unfavorable growth conditions such as bacterial wilt, fusarium wilt, high humidity, high temperature and inappropriate production technology. Grafting technology is one alternative technology. In addition to being able to control the disease in the soil, grafting is also able to increase the growth and yield of production. Besides, it is also necessary to know the economic benefits if using grafting technology. A promising eggplant rootstock for tomato grafting is Solanum torvum. S. torvum is selected as a rootstock with high compatibility. The purpose of this research is to know the effect of grafting several varieties of tomatoes with Solanum torvum as a rootstock. The experiment was conducted in Agricultural Extension Center Pare. Experimental Garden of Pare Kediri sub-district from July to early December 2016. The materials used were tomato Cervo varieties, Karina, Timoty, and Solanum torvum. Economic analysis, growth, and yield including plant height, number of leaves, percentage of disease and tomato production were used as performance measures. The study showed that grafting tomato Timoty scion with Solanum torvum as rootstock had higher production. Financially, grafting tomato Timoty and Cervo scion had higher profit about. 28,6% and 16,3% compared to Timoty and Cervo variety treatment without grafting.

Keywords: grafting technology, economic analysis, growth, yield of tomato, Solanum torvum

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Authors: Benoit Rougier, Alexandre Lefrancois, Herve Aubert

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Microwave interrogation in the range 10-100 GHz is identified as an advanced technique to investigate simultaneously shock and particle velocity measurements. However, it requires the understanding of electromagnetic wave propagation in a multi-layered moving media. The existing models limit their approach to wave guides or evaluate the velocities with a fitting method, restricting therefore the domain of validity and the precision of the results. Moreover, few data of permittivity on high explosives at these frequencies under dynamic compression have been reported. In this paper, shock and particle velocities are computed concurrently for steady and unsteady shocks for various inert and reactive materials, via a propagation model based on Doppler shifts and signal amplitude. Refractive index of the material under compression is also calculated. From experimental data processing, it is demonstrated that Hugoniot curve can be evaluated. The comparison with published results proves the accuracy of the proposed method. This microwave interrogation technique seems promising for shock and detonation waves studies.

Keywords: electromagnetic propagation, experimental setup, Hugoniot measurement, shock propagation

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Authors: Shuai Zhao, Shalendra D. Sharma, Jin Xu

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This research uses advanced machine learning models to learn a number of hypotheses regarding political executives. Specifically, it analyses the impact these powerful leaders have on economic growth by using leaders’ data from the Archigos database from 1835 to the end of 2015. The data is processed by the AutoGluon, which was developed by Amazon. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and AutoGluon can automatically extract features from the data and then use multiple classifiers to train the data. Use a linear regression model and classification model to establish the relationship between leaders and economic growth (GDP per capita growth), and to clarify the relationship between their characteristics and economic growth from a machine learning perspective. Our work may show as a model or signal for collaboration between the fields of statistics and artificial intelligence (AI) that can light up the way for political researchers and economists.

Keywords: comparative politics, political executives, leaders’ characteristics, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Mojtaba Borhani

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By employing the unique characteristics of a region, its economy, climate, geography, and culture, rural communities can create distinctive products. This approach not only boosts economic opportunities but also promotes sustainable growth and preserves cultural heritage. A strategic focus on branding and intellectual property (IP) is essential. By developing strong brands, rural areas can differentiate their products, increase their market value, and build consumer loyalty. Moreover, IP protection safeguards the creative and innovative output of rural communities, incentivizing further development. Rural branding can serve as a cornerstone for community empowerment. It can help to prevent rural exodus by providing economic incentives and a strong sense of place. Additionally, by protecting traditional knowledge and cultural expressions, branding contributes to the long-term sustainability of rural livelihoods.

Keywords: intellectual property, regional branding, sustainable development, rural economy

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Authors: A. J. Julius, E. Imoagene, O. A. Ganiyu

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The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the services and functions rendered by the forest landscape using a conditional logit model. For this study, attributes and levels of forest landscape were chosen; specifically, attributes include topographical forest type, forest type, forest density, recreational factor (side trip, accessibility of valley), and willingness to participate (WTP). Based on these factors, 48 choices sets with balanced and orthogonal form using statistical analysis system (SAS) 9.1 was adopted. The efficiency of the questionnaire was 6.02 (D-Error. 0.1), and choice set and socio-economic variables were analyzed. To reduce the cognitive load of respondents, the 48 choice sets were divided into 4 types in the questionnaire, so that respondents could respond to 12 choice sets, respectively. The study populations were citizens from seven metropolitan cities including Ibadan, Ilorin, Osogbo, etc. and annual WTP per household was asked by using the interview questionnaire, a total of 267 copies were recovered. As a result, Oshogbo had 0.45, and the statistical similarities could not be found except for urban forests, forest density, recreational factor, and level of WTP. Average annual WTP per household for forest landscape was 104,758 Naira (Nigerian currency) based on the outcome from this model, total economic value of the services and functions enjoyed from Nigerian forest landscape has reached approximately 1.6 trillion Naira.

Keywords: economic valuation, urban cities, services, forest landscape, logit model, nigeria

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Jan Ceselsky

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Construction and reconstruction of settlements and individual municipalities, environmental management and the creation, deployment of the forces of production and building transport and technical equipment requires a large expenditure of material and human resources. That is why the economic aspects of the majority decision in these planes built in the foreground and are often decisive. Thereby but more serious is that the economic aspects of the settlement, the creation and function remain in their whole, unprocessed, and can not speak of a set of individual techniques and methods traditional indicators and experiments with new approaches. This is true both at the level of the national economy, and in their own urban designs. Still a few remain identified specific economic shaping patterns of settlement and the less it is possible to speak of their control. Also practical assessing economics of specific solutions are often used non-apt indicators in addition to economics usually identifies with the lowest acquisition cost or high-intensity land use with little regard for functional efficiency and little studied much higher operating and maintenance costs.

Keywords: investment, municipal engineering, value for money, construction

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Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

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The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: economic growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy, VECM

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Authors: Jonardan Koner, Basabi Bhattacharya, Avinash Purandare

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The study is focused to find out the impact of infrastructural investment on economic development in Indian states. The study uses panel data analysis to measure the impact of infrastructural investment on Real Gross Domestic Product in Indian States. Panel data analysis incorporates Unit Root Test, Cointegration Teat, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect Approach, Random Effect Approach, Hausman Test. The study analyzes panel data (annual in frequency) ranging from 1991 to 2012 and concludes that infrastructural investment has a desirable impact on economic development in Indian. Finally, the study reveals that the infrastructural investment significantly explains the variation of economic indicator.

Keywords: infrastructural investment, real GDP, unit root test, cointegration teat, pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effect approach, random effect approach, Hausman test

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Authors: Ahmed Ghalem

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The research to be explained is a collection of information about several public and private economic institutions. This information is represented in highlighting the large and useful role in adopting the method of electronic marketing. Which is widespread and easy to use among community members at the local and international levels. Which generates large sums of money with little effort and little time, and also satisfies the customers. Do these things, despite what we have said, run the risk of losing large amounts of money in a moment or a short time.

Keywords: economic, finance, bank, development, marketing

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Authors: Natasha Lalla

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The impact of free trade on growth has been highly debated and studies have generated varying results. Since the 1970s the Caribbean has engaged in asymmetrical trade with some European states characterized by the Lomé Conventions (1975-1999). These agreements allowed for Caribbean products such as sugar and banana to enter some European countries duty-free and above market prices. With the onset of the World Trade Organization by the mid-1990s, the EU’s banana trade regime was considered illegitimate. Lomé was replaced by the Cotonou agreement (2000-2007), in order to phase out preferences and ensure that the Caribbean trade arrangements were consistent with the international economic environment of trade liberalization. This agreement facilitated signing of the Economic Partnership Agreement in 2008 by both trade blocs whereby Caribbean states must implement freer trade by 2033. The current study is an exploration of how the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States, the smallest, economically and ecologically vulnerable states of the Caribbean have restructured their trade policies towards the end of preferences and what has been the economic developmental impact of this. This is done by analyzing key reports to understand how these states restructured policies towards freer trade. Secondly, to determine the impact of this, data collected for specific economic indicators were analyzed in a fixed effects panel data framework for the period 1979-2016 on six states of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States. The study, therefore, found that freer trade has resulted in negative growth in these states.

Keywords: free trade, growth, OECS, small island developing states

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction. One of the most important issues of state economic policy in the 21st century is the problem of environmental protection. The Georgian government considers the green economy as one of the most important means of sustainable economic development and takes the initiative to implement voluntary measures to promote sustainable development. In this context, it is important to promote the development of ecosystem services, clean production, environmental education and green jobs.The development of the green economy significantly reduces the inefficient use of natural resources, waste generation, emissions into the atmosphere and the discharge of untreated water into bodies of water.It is, therefore, an important instrument in the environmental orientation of sustainable development. Objectives.The aim of the paper is to analyze the current status of the green economy in Georgia and identify effective ways to improve the environmental, economic policy of sustainable development. Methodologies: This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. bibliographic research of scientific works and reports of organizations was conducted; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions: The country should implement such an economic policy that ensures the transition to a green economy, in particular, revising water, air and waste laws, strengthening existing environmental management tools and introcing new tools (including economic tools). Perfecting the regulatory legal framework of the environmental impact assessment system, which includes the harmonization of Georgian legislation with the requirements of the European Union. To ensure the protection and rational use of Georgia's forests, emphasis should be placed on sustainable forestry, protection and restoration of forests.

Keywords: green economy, environmental protection, environmental protection economic policy, environmental protection policy challanges

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Authors: Mehdi Ghaemi

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Within the current paper, there is an attempt to examine the legal system that overrules economic stability and legitimate expectations of foreign investment rights. Studies show that Meeting the legitimate expectations of foreign investment is one of the rights and privileges which obviously are to be benefited from by all types of foreign investments. The legitimate expectations of foreign investors are protected and structured strongly with the help of international investment laws. The body of international investment laws is faced with multiple challenges with respect to the legitimate expectations of foreign investments, including the Economic stability and the public interest of the host country, the attitude of the host country towards the legitimate rights and privileges of the foreign investment, the ways to meet and to control those expectations, and also the assessment of the regulations of the host country which would affect the investing bodies within different circumstances.

Keywords: foreign investment, legitimate expectations, regulating investments, international investment

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Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

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Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans

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Authors: Slimane Souag, Amel Graa, Farid Benhamida

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In this paper we present a new method for solving the secured power flow problem by the economic dispatch using DC power flow method and Generation Shift Distribution Factor (GSDF), in this work we create a graphical interface in LabVIEW as a virtual instrument. Hence the dc power flow reduces the power flow problem to a set of linear equations, which make the iterative calculation very fast and the GSFD matrix present the effects of single and multiple generator MW change on the transmission line. The effectiveness of the method developed is identified through its application to an IEEE-14 bus test system. The calculation results show excellent performance of the proposed method, in regard to computation time and quality of results.

Keywords: electrical power system security, economic dispatch, sensitivity matrix, labview

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Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

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Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point

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Authors: Benmessaoud Hassen

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We propose in this study to address the impact of socio-economic and environmental impact on the physical environment, especially their spatiotemporal dynamics in semi-arid and arid eastern Aurès. Including 11 municipalities, the study area spreads out over a relatively large surface area of about 60.000 ha. The hindsight is quite important and is determined by 03 days of analysis of environmental variation spread over thirty years (between 1987 and 2007). The multi-source data acquired in this context are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS).This allows, among other indices to calculate areas and classes for each thematic layer of the 4 layers previously defined by a method inspired MEDALUS (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use).The database created is composed of four layers of information (population, livestock, farming and land use). His analysis in space and time has been supplemented by a validation of the ground truth. Once the database has corrected it used to develop the comprehensive map with the calculation of the index of socio-economic and environmental (ISCE). The map supports and the resulting information does not consist only of figures on the present situation but could be used to forecast future trends.

Keywords: impact of socio-economic and environmental, spatiotemporal dynamics, semi-arid environments, GIS, Eastern Aurès

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili

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The paper discusses economic policy of Georgia aiming to increase national competitiveness as well as the tools and means which will help to improve the competitiveness of the country. The sectors of the economy, in which the country can achieve the competitive advantage, are studied. It is noted that the country’s economic policy plays an important role in obtaining and maintaining the competitive advantage - authority should take measures to ensure high level of education; scientific and research activities should be funded by the state; foreign direct investments should be attracted mainly in science-intensive industries; adaptation with the latest scientific achievements of the modern world and deepening of scientific and technical cooperation. Stable business environment and export oriented strategy is the basis for the country’s economic growth. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests the strategy for improving competitiveness in Georgia; recommendations are provided based on relevant conclusions.

Keywords: competitive advantage, competitiveness, competitiveness improvement strategy, competitiveness of Georgia

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Authors: Kiyohiro Yamazaki

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A purpose of this study is to examine how a firm without fundamental technology is able to gain the competitive advantage. This paper examines three case studies, Sony in the flat display TV industry, Casio in the digital camera industry and Nintendo in the home game machine industry. This paper maintain the firms without fundamental technology construct two advantages, economic advantage and organizational advantage. An economic advantage involves the firm can select either high-tech or cheap devices out of several device makers, and change the alternatives cheaply and quickly. In addition, organizational advantage means that a firm without fundamental technology is not restricted by organizational inertia and cognitive restraints, and exercises the characteristic of strength.

Keywords: firm without fundamental technology, economic advantage, organizational advantage, Sony, Casio, Nintendo

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Authors: Nur Azzammudin Rahmat, Ismail Musirin, Ahmad Farid Abidin

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Economic load dispatch is performed by the utilities in order to determine the best generation level at the most feasible operating cost. In order to guarantee satisfying energy delivery to the consumer, a precise calculation of generation level is required. In order to achieve accurate and practical solution, several considerations such as prohibited operating zones, valve-point effect and ramp-rate limit need to be taken into account. However, these considerations cause the optimization to become complex and difficult to solve. This research focuses on the valve-point effect that causes ripple in the fuel-cost curve. This paper also proposes Differential Evolution Immunized Ant Colony Optimization (DEIANT) in solving economic load dispatch problem with valve-point effect. Comparative studies involving DEIANT, EP and ACO are conducted on IEEE 30-Bus RTS for performance assessments. Results indicate that DEIANT is superior to the other compared methods in terms of calculating lower operating cost and power loss.

Keywords: ant colony optimization (ACO), differential evolution (DE), differential evolution immunized ant colony optimization (DEIANT), economic load dispatch (ELD)

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Authors: Sheraz Ahmad Choudhary

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Health plays a vital role in the growth. The study examined the effect of health indicator on the growth of Pakistan. ARDL model is used to check the growth rate which is affected by the health by using the time series date of Pakistan from 1990 to 2017. Health indicator, fertility rate, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate are variables Where the unit root is applied to check the stationarity of the model. consequences find a significant relationship between GDP, foreign direct investment, fertility rate, and life expectancy in the short run, whereas mortality rate effected negatively to economic growth but have significant values. In the long run, foreign direct investment (FDI) and fertility rate(FR) have significantly influenced the GDP. The results show thateconomic growth is positively stimulated by most of the health indicators. The study accomplishes that nations can achieve a high level of economic growth by increasing wellbeing human capital.

Keywords: economic growth, health expenditures, fertility rate, human capital, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate

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Authors: Boopen Seetanah, R. V. Sannassee, Sheereen Fauzel, Robin Nunkoo

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The bulk of research on the impact of research and development (R&D) has been carried out in developed economies where the intensity of R&D expenditure has been relatively high and stable for many years. However, there is a paucity of similar studies in developing countries. In this paper, we provide empirical estimates of the impact of R&D investment on economic growth in a developing African economy (Mauritius) where R&D expenditure intensity has been low initially, but rising, albeit moderately in recent years. Using a dynamic time series analysis over the period 1980 to 2014 in a Vector Autoregressive framework, R & D is shown to have a positive and significant effect on the economic progress of the island, although the impact is considerably less when compared to both other ingredients of growth and also to reported elasticities fromdeveloped economies . Interestingly, there is evidence of bicausality between R & D and growth. furthermore, R & D positively impacts on both domestic and foreign investment, suggesting the possibilities of indirect effects.

Keywords: R & D, VECM, Africa, Mauritius

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Authors: Afees Adebayo Salam

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This paper attempts an in-depth analysis of the economic impact of Ogbomoso migrant community in the Jos metropolis. It discusses the factors that motivated a sizeable number of Ogbomoso people (from southwestern Nigeria) to leave their hometown for a new place/space in Jos (northern Nigeria). It examines the historical antecedent of Ogbomoso migrants in northern Nigeria with emphasis on Jos metropolis. The movement of Ogbomoso migrants to Jos was dictated by the economic and social challenges of colonial and post-colonial periods. The political crisis of the 1960s was a contributory factor to the process of Ogbomoso migration to other parts of Nigeria. In the aftermath, many people migrated from Ogbomoso to different parts of the country and beyond to seek for better economic opportunities. The establishment of Ogbomoso migrant community in Jos was dated back to the colonial era when taxation was introduced by the British. Many people could not pay these taxes from their peasant farming activities, while some embarked on migration to places such as Jos, Kaduna, Kano, Keffi and Bauchi due to the harsh economic situation at home. Their settlement in Jos brought about success in several spheres of human endeavours. Ogbomoso migrants dominated both paid jobs and private business sector such as textile merchants, food stuff sellers, herbalists, printers, transporters, and religious missionaries, as well as clerical officers in the government establishments. Their remittances were invested in different sectors of Ogbomoso economy. The migrants had in one way or the other contributed to the socio-economic development of their host community in Jos as entrepreneurs. Branches of such industries were located in their hometown of Ogbomoso as a clear demonstration of community development. The remittance pattern of the migrants has transformed Ogbomoso to enviable position. Moreover, the economic success of Ogbomoso migrants over the period under review indicates the process of nation building due to peaceful nature of inter-ethnic engagements between Ogbomoso migrants and their host community in Jos. Therefore, the paper makes use of oral, archival and secondary sources to analyse the processes of migration and its economic impact. Oral interviews were conducted in Ogbomoso town with veteran migrants and their family members. Interviews were also conducted in Jos with the indigenous host community as well as other urban residents. Archival materials were obtained from Arewa House Archives and the National Archives, Kaduna and the National Archives, Ibadan.

Keywords: Ogbomoso migrants, Jos metropolis, community development, economic impact

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Authors: Huseyin Cetin, Halil Akmese, Sercan Aras, Vahit Aytekin

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Economic crisis, terrorism, global crisis and the relations between countries are the factors affecting tourism industry and tourism industry is vulnerable against these factors. In our study, there are two dimensions about Russian crisis. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine and decreased oil prices in global market have been entailed Russian economic crisis. This crisis has induced that the ruble, Russian currency, has depreciated against American dollars and consequently the purchasing power of Russian has weakened. This is the first dimension of our study. Second dimension is a political crisis between Turkey and Russia owing to the fact that the Russian Warcraft was brought down by Turkish army. The aim of this study is to explain the impact of the consequences of Russian crisis on Turkish tourism industry. The study has been limited only Antalya province.

Keywords: economic crisis, Turkey-Russian crisis, Turkey's tourism industry, tourism in Turkey

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Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

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The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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Authors: Mina Rahmani Pour

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Negative consequences of unemployment are: increasing age at marriage, addiction, depression, drug trafficking, divorce, immigration, elite, frustration, delinquency, theft, murder, etc., has led to addressing the issue of employment by economic planners, public authorities, chief executive economic conditions in different countries and different time is important. All countries are faced with the problem of unemployment. By identifying the influential factors of occupational employment and employing strengths in the basic steps can be taken to reduce unemployment. In this study, the most significant factors affecting employment has identified 12 variables based on interviews conducted Choose Vtasyrafzaysh engaged in three main business is discussed. DRGAM next question the 8 expert ministry to respond to it is distributed and for weight Horns AZFN Shannon entropy and the ranking criteria of the (SAW, TOPSIS) used. According to the results of the above methods are not compatible with each other, to reach a general consensus on the rating criteria of the technique of integrating (POSET) involving average, Borda, copeland is used. Ultimately, there is no difference between the employments in the economic sector jobs of increased employment.

Keywords: employment, effective techniques, SAW, TOPSIS

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Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

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We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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Authors: Sevilay Konya, Sadife Güngör, Zeynep Karaçor

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Turkish economy is occurred depending on different factors from time to time and the banking crises of different magnitudes. Foremost among the factors which hinder the development of countries and societies- crises in the country's economy. Countries' economic growth rates affect inflation, unemployment and external trade. In this study, effect of November 2000, February 2001 and 2008 banking crisis on Turkey's economy and banking crisis will be examined and announced as conceptual. In this context, this study is investigates Turkey's GDP, inflation, unemployment and foreign trade figures. Turkey's economy affected have been identified from 2000 November 2001 February and 2008 banking crisis.

Keywords: banking crises, Turkey’s economy, economic effects, Turkey

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Authors: Gokhan Erkal, Gulsen Aydin, Muge Yuce, Lokman Sahin

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the impacts of involving in mediation of conflicts in the Middle East from the perspective of the economic growth of the mediators. The Middle East is a highly volatile region of the world with rampant crises whose affects spill beyond its borders. Therefore, management and resolution of the conflicts in the region are of great significance. Mediation is an instrument used for abating violence and settling dispute. The recourse to mediation has grown to an important degree in recent years. However, for mediators, it is a daunting task to involve in the mediation of the deadlocks in the Middle East. This study tries to shed light on the positive correlation between economic growth of the mediator and the successful outcome of the mediation process to provide motivation for mediators. To this end, first, it briefly introduces the conflicts ongoing in the region and their negative impacts. Second, the methodology, time series analysis, and the data to be used, International Crisis Behavior Project Data, are presented. Third, the empirical test is carried out and the findings are evaluated. The conclusion highlights the benefits of successful mediation for the economic growth of the mediators of Middle Eastern crises.

Keywords: international crises, mediation, Middle East, times series analysis

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