Search results for: associated risk factors
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15040

Search results for: associated risk factors

10060 Hydro-Meteorological Vulnerability and Planning in Urban Area: The Case of Yaoundé City in Cameroon

Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

Abstract:

Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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10059 Guests’ Satisfaction and Intention to Revisit Smart Hotels: Qualitative Interviews Approach

Authors: Raymond Chi Fai Si Tou, Jacey Ja Young Choe, Amy Siu Ian So

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Smart hotels can be defined as the hotel which has an intelligent system, through digitalization and networking which achieve hotel management and service information. In addition, smart hotels include high-end designs that integrate information and communication technology with hotel management fulfilling the guests’ needs and improving the quality, efficiency and satisfaction of hotel management. The purpose of this study is to identify appropriate factors that may influence guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit Smart Hotels based on service quality measurement of lodging quality index and extended UTAUT theory. Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is adopted as a framework to explain technology acceptance and use. Since smart hotels are technology-based infrastructure hotels, UTATU theory could be as the theoretical background to examine the guests’ acceptance and use after staying in smart hotels. The UTAUT identifies four key drivers of the adoption of information systems: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions. The extended UTAUT modifies the definitions of the seven constructs for consideration; the four previously cited constructs of the UTAUT model together with three new additional constructs, which including hedonic motivation, price value and habit. Thus, the seven constructs from the extended UTAUT theory could be adopted to understand their intention to revisit smart hotels. The service quality model will also be adopted and integrated into the framework to understand the guests’ intention of smart hotels. There are rare studies to examine the service quality on guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit in smart hotels. In this study, Lodging Quality Index (LQI) will be adopted to measure the service quality in smart hotels. Using integrated UTAUT theory and service quality model because technological applications and services require using more than one model to understand the complicated situation for customers’ acceptance of new technology. Moreover, an integrated model could provide more perspective insights to explain the relationships of the constructs that could not be obtained from only one model. For this research, ten in-depth interviews are planned to recruit this study. In order to confirm the applicability of the proposed framework and gain an overview of the guest experience of smart hotels from the hospitality industry, in-depth interviews with the hotel guests and industry practitioners will be accomplished. In terms of the theoretical contribution, it predicts that the integrated models from the UTAUT theory and the service quality will provide new insights to understand factors that influence the guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit smart hotels. After this study identifies influential factors, smart hotel practitioners could understand which factors may significantly influence smart hotel guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit. In addition, smart hotel practitioners could also provide outstanding guests experience by improving their service quality based on the identified dimensions from the service quality measurement. Thus, it will be beneficial to the sustainability of the smart hotels business.

Keywords: intention to revisit, guest satisfaction, qualitative interviews, smart hotels

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10058 A Review of the Antecedents and Consequences of Employee Engagementc

Authors: Ibrahim Hamidu Magem

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Employee engagement has continued to gain popularity among practitioners, consultants and academicians recent years. This is due to the fact that the engaged employees are central to organizational success in today’s highly competitive and rapidly changing business environment. Employee engagement depicts a situation whereby employee’s harnessed themselves to their work roles. The importance of employee engagement to organizations cannot be overemphasized in today’s rapidly changing business environment. Organizations both large and small are constantly striving to improve their performance, retain employees, reduce absenteeism, and create loyal customers among others. To be able to achieve these organizations need a team of highly engaged employees. In line with this, the study attempts to provide a valuable framework for understanding the antecedents and consequences of employee engagement in organizations. The paper categorizes the antecedents of employee engagement into individual and organizational factors which it is assumed that the existence of such factors could result into engaged employees that will be of benefit to organizations. Therefore, it is recommended that organizations should revisit and redesign its employee engagement system to enable them attain their organizational goals and objectives. In addition, organizations should note that engagement is personal but organizational engagement programmes should be about everyone in the organization. The findings from this paper adds to existing studies about employee engagement and also provide awareness to academics and practitioners about the importance of employee engagement to improve organizations efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to impact to overall firm performance.

Keywords: antecedents, employee engagement, job involvement, organization

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10057 Investigating Salience Theory’s Implications for Real-Life Decision Making: An Experimental Test for Whether the Allais Paradox Exists under Subjective Uncertainty

Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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10056 An Assessment of Trace Heavy Metal Contamination of Some Edible Oils Regularly Marketed in Benue and Taraba States of Nigeria

Authors: Raphael Odoh, Obida J. Oko, Mary S. Dauda

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The determination of Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe,Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn contents in edible oils (palm oil, ground-nut oil and soybean oil) bought from various markets of Benue and Taraba state were carried out with flame atomic absorption spectrophotometric technique. The method 3031 developed acid digestion of oils for metal analysis by atomic absorption or ICP spectrometry was used in the preparation of the edible oil samples for the determination of total metal content in this study. The overall results (µg/g) in palm oil sample ranged from 0.028-0.076, 0.035-0.092, 1.011-1.955, 2.101-4.892, 0.666-0.922, 0.054-0.095, 0.031-0.068 and 1.987-2.971 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn respectively, while in ground-nut oil the overall results ranged from 0.011-0.042, 0.011-0.052, 0.133-0.788, 1.789-2.511, 0.078-0.765, 0.045-0.092, 0.011-0.028 and 1.098-1.997 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn respectively. Of the heavy metals considered Cd and Ni showed the highest contamination in the soybean oil sample. The overall results in soybean oil samples ranged from 0.011-0.015, 0.017-0.032, 0.453-0.987, 1.789-2.511, 0.089-0.321, 0.011-0.016, 0.012-0.065 and 1.011-1.997 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn respectively. The concentration of Pb was the highest. The degree of contamination by each metal was estimated by the transfer factor. The transfer factors obtained for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in edible oils (palm oil, ground-nut oil and soybean oil) were 10.800, 16.500, 16.000, 18.813, 15.115, 14.230, 23.000 and 9.418 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in palm oil, and 7.000, 12.500, 8.880, 11.333, 7.708, 10.833, 15.00 and 6.608 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in ground-nut oil while for soybean oil the transfer factors were 13.000, 11.000, 7.642, 11.578, 4.486, 13.00, 12.333 and 4.412 for Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn respectively. The inter-element correlation was found among metals in edible oil samples using Pearson’s correlation co-efficient. There were positive and negative correlations among the metals determined. All Metals determined showed degree of contamination but concentrations lower than the USP specification.

Keywords: Benue State, contamination, edible oils, heavy metals, markets, Taraba State

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10055 Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis Pathogens in Malaysian Hospitals: Determining Empiric Antibiotic

Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Treatment of suspected early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is essential. However, information regarding EONS pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. The inclusion criteria were neonates with blood culture taken prior to empiric antibiotics administration and within 72 hours of life. Of the study group, a total of 734 (82%) cases had documented blood culture that met the inclusion criteria. Proven EONS (as confirmed by positive blood culture) was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). In addition, other common gram positive organism isolated were Coagulase negative staphylococci (7) followed by Bacillus sp. (5) and Streptococcus pneumonia (2), and only one case isolated with GBS, Streptococcus spp. and Enterococcus sp. Meanwhile, only five cases of gram negative organisms [Stenotropomonas (xantho) maltophi (1), Haemophilus influenza (1), Spingomonas paucimobilis (1), Enterobacter gergoviae (1) and E. coli (1)] were isolated. A total of 286 (39%) cases were exposed to intrapartum antibiotics and of those, 157 (21.4%) were administered prior to delivery. All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male, surfactant, caesarean delivery and prolonged rapture of membrane >18hours were a possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance. However, by analyzing isolated pathogens it can be used as treatment guidance in managing suspected EONS.

Keywords: early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative

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10054 Inequalities in Gastrointestinal Infections between UK Ethnic Groups: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis

Authors: Iram Zahair, Tanith Rose, Oyinlola Oyebode, Stephen Clayton, Iman Ghosh, Michelle Maden, Ben Barr

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Background: Gastrointestinal infections exert a significant public health burden on UK healthcare services and the community. However, there are conflicting findings on where ethnic inequalities are likely to persist. This systematic review aimed to identify studies that ascertain differences in the incidence and prevalence of gastrointestinal infections within and between UK ethnic groups and explore possible explanations for heterogeneity observed within the literature. Methods: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidance, a systematic review methodology was used. Medline, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus, and grey literature were searched from 1980 to 2021 for studies reporting an association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections in UK population samples. Two reviewers independently screened the articles and conducted quality appraisals; data extraction was undertaken by one reviewer and verified by two reviewers (PROSPERO CRD 42021240714). A narrative synthesis was undertaken to synthesise the study findings. Results: The searches identified 8134 studies; 13 met the inclusion criteria. 12 out of 13 studies found a difference in the prevalence of gastrointestinal infections between different ethnic groups. UK ethnic minorities, predominantly men and children of Asian ethnicity, had an increased risk of infection than the white British majority in 12 studies; the Pakistani ethnic group had a higher risk of infection in three out of 13 studies. Studies reported that age and sex confounded the relationship between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. At the same time, the country of birth, socioeconomic status, and geographical location of ethnic groups mediated this association and significantly explained the heterogeneity observed across the studies. Harvest plots supported the textual synthesis. Conclusion: This systematic review elucidates the lack of extensive UK quantitative evidence examining the association between ethnicity and gastrointestinal infections. Insights into gastrointestinal infections and ethnicity's association can help address policy actions to mitigate the inequalities identified within and between UK ethnic groups.

Keywords: ethnic and racial populations, public health, public health policy, systematic review

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10053 Engagement as a Predictor of Student Flourishing in the Online Classroom

Authors: Theresa Veach, Erin Crisp

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It has been shown that traditional students flourish as a function of several factors including level of academic challenge, student/faculty interactions, active/collaborative learning, enriching educational experiences, and supportive campus environment. With the increase in demand for remote or online courses, factors that result in academic flourishing in the virtual classroom have become more crucial to understand than ever before. This study seeks to give insight into those factors that impact student learning, overall student wellbeing, and flourishing among college students enrolled in an online program. 4160 unique students participated in the completion of End of Course Survey (EOC) before final grades were released. Quantitative results from the survey are used by program directors as a measure of student satisfaction with both the curriculum and the faculty. In addition, students also submitted narrative comments in an open comment field. No prompts were given for the comment field on the survey. The purpose of this analysis was to report on the qualitative data available with the goal of gaining insight into what matters to students. Survey results from July 1st, 2016 to December 1st, 2016 were compiled into spreadsheet data sets. The analysis approach used involved both key word and phrase searches and reading results to identify patterns in responses and to tally the frequency of those patterns. In total, just over 25,000 comments were included in the analysis. Preliminary results indicate that it is the professor-student relationship, frequency of feedback and overall engagement of both instructors and students that are indicators of flourishing in college programs offered in an online format. This qualitative study supports the notion that college students flourish with regard to 1) education, 2) overall student well-being and 3) program satisfaction when overall engagement of both the instructor and the student is high. Ways to increase engagement in the online college environment were also explored. These include 1) increasing student participation by providing more project-based assignments, 2) interacting with students in meaningful ways that are both high in frequency and in personal content, and 3) allowing students to apply newly acquired knowledge in ways that are meaningful to current life circumstances and future goals.

Keywords: college, engagement, flourishing, online

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10052 Organizational Decision to Adopt Digital Forensics: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Malaysian Law Enforcement Agencies

Authors: Siti N. I. Mat Kamal, Othman Ibrahim, Mehrbakhsh Nilashi, Jafalizan M. Jali

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The use of digital forensics (DF) is nowadays essential for law enforcement agencies to identify analysis and interpret the digital information derived from digital sources. In Malaysia, the engagement of Malaysian Law Enforcement Agencies (MLEA) with this new technology is not evenly distributed. To investigate the factors influencing the adoption of DF in Malaysia law enforcement agencies’ operational environment, this study proposed the initial theoretical framework based on the integration of technology organization environment (TOE), institutional theory, and human organization technology (HOT) fit model. A questionnaire survey was conducted on selected law enforcement agencies in Malaysia to verify the validity of the initial integrated framework. Relative advantage, compatibility, coercive pressure, normative pressure, vendor support and perceived technical competence of technical staff were found as the influential factors on digital forensics adoption. In addition to the only moderator of this study (agency size), any significant moderating effect on the perceived technical competence and the decision to adopt digital forensics by Malaysian law enforcement agencies was found insignificant. Thus, these results indicated that the developed integrated framework provides an effective prediction of the digital forensics adoption by Malaysian law enforcement agencies.

Keywords: digital forensics, digital forensics adoption, digital information, law enforcement agency

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10051 Math Word Problems: Context and Achievement

Authors: Irena Smetackova

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The important part of school mathematics are word problems which represent the connection between school knowledge and life reality. To find the reasons why students consider word problems to be difficult, it is necessary to take into consideration the motivational settings, besides mathematical knowledge and reading skills. Our goal is to identify whether the familiar or unfamiliar context of math word problem influences solving success rate and if so, whether the reasons are motivational or cognitive. For this purpose, we conducted three steps study in group of fifty pupils 9-10 years old. In the first step, we asked pupils to create ‘the best’ word problems for entered numerical formula. The set of 19 word problems with different contexts were selected. In the second step, pupils were asked to evaluate (without solving) how they like each item and how easy it is for them. The 6 word problems with low preference and low estimated success rate were selected and combined with other 6 problems with high preference and success rate. In the third step, the same pupils were asked to solve the word problems. The analysis showed that pupils attitudes and solving toward word problems varied by the context. The strong gender patterns both in preferred contexts and in estimated success rates were identified however the real success rate did not differ so strongly. The success gap between word problems with and without preferred contexts were stronger than the gap between problems with and without real experience with the context. The hypothesis that motivational factors are more important than cognitive factors was confirmed.

Keywords: mathematics, context of reality, motivation, cognition, word problems

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10050 Determinants of Aggregate Electricity Consumption in Ghana: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Authors: Renata Konadu

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In Ghana, electricity has become the main form of energy which all sectors of the economy rely on for their businesses. Therefore, as the economy grows, the demand and consumption of electricity also grow alongside due to the heavy dependence on it. However, since the supply of electricity has not increased to match the demand, there has been frequent power outages and load shedding affecting business performances. To solve this problem and advance policies to secure electricity in Ghana, it is imperative that those factors that cause consumption to increase be analysed by considering the three classes of consumers; residential, industrial and non-residential. The main argument, however, is that, export of electricity to other neighbouring countries should be included in the electricity consumption model and considered as one of the significant factors which can decrease or increase consumption. The author made use of multivariate time series data from 1980-2010 and econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model. Findings show that GDP growth, urban population growth, electricity exports and industry value added to GDP were cointegrated. The results also showed that there is unidirectional causality from electricity export and GDP growth and Industry value added to GDP to electricity consumption in the long run. However, in the short run, there was found to be a directional causality among all the variables and electricity consumption. The results have useful implication for energy policy makers especially with regards to electricity consumption, demand, and supply.

Keywords: electricity consumption, energy policy, GDP growth, vector error correction model

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10049 Effective Use of X-Box Kinect in Rehabilitation Centers of Riyadh

Authors: Reem Alshiha, Tanzila Saba

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Physical rehabilitation is the process of helping people to recover and be able to go back to their former activities that have been delayed due to external factors such as car accidents, old age and victims of strokes (chronic diseases and accidents, and those related to sport activities).The cost of hiring a personal nurse or driving the patient to and from the hospital could be costly and time-consuming. Also, there are other factors to take into account such as forgetfulness, boredom and lack of motivation. In order to solve this dilemma, some experts came up with rehabilitation software to be used with Microsoft Kinect to help the patients and their families for in-home rehabilitation. In home rehabilitation software is becoming more and more popular, since it is more convenient for all parties affiliated with the patient. In contrast to the other costly market-based systems that have no portability, Microsoft’s Kinect is a portable motion sensor that reads body movements and interprets it. New software development has made rehabilitation games available to be used at home for the convenience of the patient. The game will benefit its users (rehabilitation patients) in saving time and money. There are many software's that are used with the Kinect for rehabilitation, but the software that is chosen in this research is Kinectotherapy. Kinectotherapy software is used for rehabilitation patients in Riyadh clinics to test its acceptance by patients and their physicians. In this study, we used Kinect because it was affordable, portable and easy to access in contrast to expensive market-based motion sensors. This paper explores the importance of in-home rehabilitation by using Kinect with Kinectotherapy software. The software targets both upper and lower limbs, but in this research, the main focus is on upper-limb functionality. However, the in-home rehabilitation is applicable to be used by all patients with motor disability, since the patient must have some self-reliance. The targeted subjects are patients with minor motor impairment that are somewhat independent in their mobility. The presented work is the first to consider the implementation of in-home rehabilitation with real-time feedback to the patient and physician. This research proposes the implementation of in-home rehabilitation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The findings show that most of the patients are interested and motivated in using the in-home rehabilitation system in the future. The main value of the software application is due to these factors: improve patient engagement through stimulating rehabilitation, be a low cost rehabilitation tool and reduce the need for expensive one-to-one clinical contact. Rehabilitation is a crucial treatment that can improve the quality of life and confidence of the patient as well as their self-esteem.

Keywords: x-box, rehabilitation, physical therapy, rehabilitation software, kinect

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10048 Deformation Severity Prediction in Sewer Pipelines

Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Ahmed Assad, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer pipelines are prone to deterioration over-time. In fact, their deterioration does not follow a fixed downward pattern. This is in fact due to the defects that propagate through their service life. Sewer pipeline defects are categorized into distinct groups. However, the main two groups are the structural and operational defects. By definition, the structural defects influence the structural integrity of the sewer pipelines such as deformation, cracks, fractures, holes, etc. However, the operational defects are the ones that affect the flow of the sewer medium in the pipelines such as: roots, debris, attached deposits, infiltration, etc. Yet, the process for each defect to emerge follows a cause and effect relationship. Deformation, which is the change of the sewer pipeline geometry, is one type of an influencing defect that could be found in many sewer pipelines due to many surrounding factors. This defect could lead to collapse if the percentage exceeds 15%. Therefore, it is essential to predict the deformation percentage before confronting such a situation. Accordingly, this study will predict the percentage of the deformation defect in sewer pipelines adopting the multiple regression analysis. Several factors will be considered in establishing the model, which are expected to influence the defamation defect severity. Besides, this study will construct a time-based curve to understand how the defect would evolve overtime. Thus, this study is expected to be an asset for decision-makers as it will provide informative conclusions about the deformation defect severity. As a result, inspections will be minimized and so the budgets.

Keywords: deformation, prediction, regression analysis, sewer pipelines

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10047 Effects of Environmental and Genetic Factors on Growth Performance, Fertility Traits and Milk Yield/Composition in Saanen Goats

Authors: Deniz Dincel, Sena Ardicli, Hale Samli, Mustafa Ogan, Faruk Balci

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The aim of the study was to determine the effects of some environmental and genetic factors on growth, fertility traits, milk yield and composition in Saanen goats. For this purpose, the total of 173 Saanen goats and kids were investigated for growth, fertility and milk traits in Marmara Region of Turkey. Fertility parameters (n=70) were evaluated during two years. Milk samples were collected during the lactation and the milk yield/components (n=59) of each goat were calculated. In terms of CSN3 and AGPAT6 gene; the genotypes were defined by PCR-RFLP. Saanen kids (n=86-112) were measured from birth to 6 months of life. The birth, weaning, 60ᵗʰ, 90ᵗʰ, 120ᵗʰ and 180tᵗʰ days of average live weights were calculated. The effects of maternal age on pregnancy rate (p < 0.05), birth rate (p < 0.05), infertility rate (p < 0.05), single born kidding (p < 0.001), twinning rate (p < 0.05), triplet rate (p < 0.05), survival rate of kids until weaning (p < 0.05), number of kids per parturition (p < 0.01) and number of kids per mating (p < 0.01) were found significant. The impacts of year on birth rate (p < 0.05), abortion rate (p < 0.001), single born kidding (p < 0.01), survival rate of kids until weaning (p < 0.01), number of kids per mating (p < 0.01) were found significant for fertility traits. The impacts of lactation length on all milk yield parameters (lactation milk, protein, fat, totally solid, solid not fat, casein and lactose yield) (p < 0.001) were found significant. The effects of age on all milk yield parameters (lactation milk, protein, fat, total solid, solid not fat, casein and lactose yield) (p < 0.001), protein rate (p < 0.05), fat rate (p < 0.05), total solid rate (p < 0.01), solid not fat rate (p < 0.05), casein rate (p < 0.05) and lactation length (p < 0.01), were found significant too. However, the effect of AGPAT6 gene on milk yield and composition was not found significant in Saanen goats. The herd was found monomorphic (FF) for CSN3 gene. The effects of sex on live weights until 90ᵗʰ days of life (birth, weaning and 60ᵗʰ day of average weight) were found significant statistically (p < 0.001). The maternal age affected only birth weight (p < 0,001). The effects month at birth on all of the investigated day [the birth, 120ᵗʰ, 180ᵗʰ days (p < 0.05); the weaning, 60ᵗʰ, 90ᵗʰ days (p < 0,001)] were found significant. The birth type was found significant on the birth (p < 0,001), weaning (p < 0,01), 60ᵗʰ (p < 0,01) and 90ᵗʰ (p < 0,01) days of average live weights. As a result, screening the other regions of CSN3, AGPAT6 gene and also investigation the phenotypic association of them should be useful to clarify the efficiency of target genes. Environmental factors such as maternal age, year, sex and birth type were found significant on some growth, fertility and milk traits in Saanen goats. So consideration of these factors could be used as selection criteria in dairy goat breeding.

Keywords: fertility, growth, milk yield, Saanen goats

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10046 Developing Cause-effect Model of Urban Resilience versus Flood in Karaj City using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy Techniques

Authors: Mohammad Saber Eslamlou, Manouchehr Tabibian, Mahta Mirmoghtadaei

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The history of urban development and the increasing complexities of urban life have long been intertwined with different natural and man-made disasters. Sometimes, these unpleasant events have destroyed the cities forever. The growth of the urban population and the increase of social and economic resources in the cities increased the importance of developing a holistic approach to dealing with unknown urban disasters. As a result, the interest in resilience has increased in most of the scientific fields, and the urban planning literature has been enriched with the studies of the social, economic, infrastructural, and physical abilities of the cities. In this regard, different conceptual frameworks and patterns have been developed focusing on dimensions of resilience and different kinds of disasters. As the most frequent and likely natural disaster in Iran is flooding, the present study aims to develop a cause-effect model of urban resilience against flood in Karaj City. In this theoretical study, desk research and documentary studies were used to find the elements and dimensions of urban resilience. In this regard, 6 dimensions and 32 elements were found for urban resilience and a questionnaire was made by considering the requirements of TOPSIS techniques (pairwise comparison). The sample of the research consisted of 10 participants who were faculty members, academicians, board members of research centers, managers of the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, board members of New Towns Development Company, experts, and practitioners of consulting companies who had scientific and research backgrounds. The gathered data in this survey were analyzed using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy techniques. The results show that Infrastructure/Physical, Social, Organizational/ Institutional, Structural/Physical, Economic, and Environmental dimensions are the most effective factors in urban resilience against floods in Karaj, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive model and a systematic framework of factors that affect the urban resilience of Karaj against floods was developed. This cause – effect model shows how different factors are related and influence each other, based on their connected structure and preferences.

Keywords: urban resilience, TOPSIS, Shannon entropy, cause-effect model of resilience, flood

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10045 Characterization of Practices among Pig Smallholders in Cambodia and Implications for Disease Risk

Authors: Phalla Miech, William Leung, Ty Chhay, Sina Vor, Arata Hidano

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Smallholder pig farms (SPFs) are prevalent in Cambodia but are vulnerable to disease impacts, as evidenced by the recent incursion of African swine fever into the region. As part of the ‘PigFluCam+’ project, we sought to provide an updated picture of pig husbandry and biosecurity practices among SPFs in south-central Cambodia. A multi-stage sampling design was adopted to select study districts and villages within four provinces: Phnom Penh, Kandal, Takeo, and Kampong Speu. Structured interviews were conductedbetween October 2020 - May 2021 among all consenting households keeping pigs in 16 target villages. Recruited SPFs (n=176) kept 6.8 pigs on average (s.d.=7.7), with most (88%) keeping cross-bred varieties of sows (77%), growers/finishers (39%), piglets/weaners (22%), and few keeping boars (5%). Chickens (83%) and waterfowl (56%) were commonly raised and could usually contact pigs directly (79%). Pigs were the primary source of household income for 28% of participants. While pigs tended to be housed individually (40%) or in groups (33%), 13% kept pigs free-ranging/tethered. Pigs were commonly fed agricultural by-products (80%), commercial feed (60%), and, notably, household waste (59%). Under half of SPFs vaccinated their pigs (e.g., against classical swine fever, Aujesky’s, and pasteurellosis, although the target disease was often unknown). Among 20 SPFs who experienced pig morbidities/mortalities within the past 6 months, only 3 (15%) reported to animal health workers, and disease etiology was rarely known. Common biosecurity measures included nets covering pig pens (62%) and restricting access to the site/pens (46%). Boot dips (0.6%) and PPE (1.2%) were rarely used. Pig smallholdings remain an important contributor to rural livelihoods. Current practices and biosecurity challenges increase risk pathways for a range of disease threats of both local and global concern. Ethnographic studies are needed to better understand local determinants and develop context-appropriate strategies.

Keywords: smallholder production, swine, biosecurity practices, Cambodia, African swine fever

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10044 Consideration of Uncertainty in Engineering

Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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10043 Qualitative Research on German Household Practices to Ease the Risk of Poverty

Authors: Marie Boost

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Despite activation policies, forced personal initiative to step out of unemployment and a general prosper economic situation, poverty and financial hardship constitute a crucial role in the daily lives of many families in Germany. In 2015, ~16 million persons (20.2%) of the German population are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. This is illustrated by an unemployment rate of 13.3% in the research area, located in East Germany. Despite this high amount of persons living in vulnerable households, we know little about how they manage to stabilize their lives or even overcome poverty – apart from solely relying on welfare state benefits or entering in a stable, well-paid job. Most of them are struggling in precarious living circumstances, switching from one or several short-term, low-paid jobs into self-employment or unemployment, sometimes accompanied by welfare state benefits. Hence, insecurity and uncertain future expectation form a crucial part of their lives. Within the EU-funded project “RESCuE”, resilient practices of vulnerable households were investigated in nine European countries. Approximately, 15 expert interviews with policy makers, representatives from welfare state agencies, NGOs and charity organizations and 25 household interviews have been conducted within each country. It aims to find out more about the chances and conditions of social resilience. The research is based on the triangulation of biographical narrative interviews, followed by participatory photo interviews, asking the household members to portray their typical everyday life. The presentation is focusing on the explanatory strength of this mixed-methods approach in order to show the potential of household practices to overcome financial hardship. The methodological combination allows an in-depth analysis of the families and households everyday living circumstances, including their poverty and employment situation, whether formal and informal. Active household budgeting practices, such as saving and consumption practices are based on subsistence or Do-It-Yourself work. Especially due to the photo-interviews, the importance of inherent cultural and tacit knowledge becomes obvious as it pictures their typical practices, like cultivation and gathering fruits and vegetables or going fishing. One of the central findings is the multiple purposes of these practices. They contribute to ease financial burden through consumption reduction and strengthen social ties, as they are mostly conducted with close friends or family members. In general, non-commodified practices are found to be re-commodified and to contribute to ease financial hardship, e.g. by the use of commons, barter trade or simple mutual exchange (gift exchange). These practices can substitute external purchases and reduce expenses or even generate a small income. Mixing different income sources are found to be the most likely way out of poverty within the context of a precarious labor market. But these resilient household practices take its toll as they are highly preconditioned, and many persons put themselves into risk of overstressing themselves. Thus, the potentials and risks of resilient household practices are reflected in the presentation.

Keywords: consumption practices, labor market, qualitative research, resilience

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10042 Establishment and Application of Numerical Simulation Model for Shot Peen Forming Stress Field Method

Authors: Shuo Tian, Xuepiao Bai, Jianqin Shang, Pengtao Gai, Yuansong Zeng

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Shot peen forming is an essential forming process for aircraft metal wing panel. With the development of computer simulation technology, scholars have proposed a numerical simulation method of shot peen forming based on stress field. Three shot peen forming indexes of crater diameter, shot speed and surface coverage are required as simulation parameters in the stress field method. It is necessary to establish the relationship between simulation and experimental process parameters in order to simulate the deformation under different shot peen forming parameters. The shot peen forming tests of the 2024-T351 aluminum alloy workpieces were carried out using uniform test design method, and three factors of air pressure, feed rate and shot flow were selected. The second-order response surface model between simulation parameters and uniform test factors was established by stepwise regression method using MATLAB software according to the results. The response surface model was combined with the stress field method to simulate the shot peen forming deformation of the workpiece. Compared with the experimental results, the simulated values were smaller than the corresponding test values, the maximum and average errors were 14.8% and 9%, respectively.

Keywords: shot peen forming, process parameter, response surface model, numerical simulation

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10041 Ways to Effectively Use Tourism Potential Through International Marketing and PR Communication Strategy in the Post-pandemic Period (On the Example of Georgia)

Authors: Marine Kobalava

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The article analyzes the level of Georgia's tourism potential usage during the pandemic. The conclusion is drawnthat Georgia, as a tourism brand, is in a significant crisis at this stage, revenues from this sector have been substantially reduced, communication with potential customers is interrupted, no international marketing and PR communication strategies have been developed for the post-pandemic period. In order to rehabilitate the tourism industry of Georgia, it is considered vital to take measures using international marketing and PR communication strategies adjusted to the needs of the sectorthat will improve the use of tourism potential and stimulate the development of the sector. The goal of the research is to identify the factors hindering the use of tourism potential in the direction of international marketing and PR communication strategies in the post-pandemic period and to develop recommendations on ways to solve them. Research methods. The paper uses various theoretical and methodological tools of research, including Bibliographic research has been conducted on the main research issues; Analysis, synthesis, induction, and other methods are used to select and group data, identify similarities and differences, and identify trends; Endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the field of tourism have been studied by means of SWOT and PESTEL analyzes. A comparison model is used to analyze the strategy documents. Primary accounting materials are obtained from the National Statistics Office and the relevant ministries. Based on the results of the research, the directions of correct positioning of tourism products and marketing communication in the post-pandemic period have been developed. It is substantiated that a short-term international marketing strategy should include: probable goals of communication, maintaining a position on a potential traveler's “radar,” focusing communication on key motivating factors (gastronomy, winemaking, folklore, protected areas, mountainous regions). From a marketing point of view, it is important: holding international marketing events, compiling a list of target countries, formation of stimulus mechanisms, development of incentive programs for international tour operators, etc. The paper draws conclusions about the problems of using the tourism potential, recommendations on ways to solve this problems through international marketing and PR communication strategies are offered

Keywords: PR communication, international marketing strategy, tourism potential, post-pandemic period

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10040 Salinity Response of Some Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Genotypes in Germination and Seedling Growth of Periods

Authors: Onder Aldemir, Ercan Ceyhan

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The research was conducted to determine effects of salt concentrations on emergence and seedling development of chickpea genotypes. Trials were performed during the year of 2013 on the laboratory and greenhouse of Agricultural Faculty, Selcuk University. Emergency trial was set up according to ‘Randomized Plots Design’ by two factors and four replications; greenhouse trial was also set up according to ‘Randomized Plots Design’ by two factors with three replications. The chickpea genotypes; CA119, CA132, CA149, CA150, CA215, CA222, CA235, CA261, Bozkır and Gokce were used as material for both of the trials. Effects of the five doses of salt concentrations (control, 30 mM, 60 mM, 90 mM and 120 mM) on the ratio of emergency, speed of emergency, average time for emergency, index of sensibility, length of shoot and root, fresh weight of shoot and root, dry weight of shoot and root, index of salt tolerance were evaluated. Responses of the chickpea genotypes for salt concentrations were found different. Comparing to the control, all of the investigated characteristics on the chickpea genotypes showed significant reduction by depending on the increasing salt level. According to the effects of salt application, the chickpea genotypes Gokce, CA215 and CA222 were the most tolerant in respect to plant dry weights while the chickpea genotypes CA149 and CA150 were the most sensitive.

Keywords: chickpea, emergence, salt tolerant, seedling development

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10039 Connecting Lives Inside and Outside the Classroom: Why and How to Implement Technology in the Language Learning Classroom

Authors: Geoffrey Sinha

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This paper is primarily addressed to teachers who stand on the threshold of bringing technology and new media into their classrooms. Technology and new media, such as smart phones and tablets have changed the face of communication in general and of language teaching more specifically. New media has widespread appeal among young people in particular, so it is in the teacher’s best interests to bring new media into their lessons. It is the author’s firm belief that technology will never replace the teacher, but it is without question that the twenty-first century teacher must employ technology and new media in some form, or run the risk of failure. The level that one chooses to incorporate new media within their class is entirely in their hands.

Keywords: new media, social media, technology, education, language learning

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10038 Factors Affecting Customer Loyalty in the Independent Surveyor Service Industry in Indonesia

Authors: Sufrin Hannan, Budi Suharjo, Rita Nurmalina, Kirbrandoko

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The challenge for independent surveyor service companies now is growing with increasing uncertainty in business. Protection from the government for domestic independent surveyor industry from competitor attack, such as entering the global surveyors to Indonesia also no longer exists. Therefore, building customer loyalty becomes very important to create a long-term relationship between an independent surveyor with its customers. This study aims to develop a model that can be used to build customer loyalty by looking at various factors that determine customer loyalty, especially on independent surveyors for coal inspection in Indonesia. The development of this model uses the relationship marketing approach. Testing of the hypothesis is done by testing the variables that determine customer loyalty, either directly or indirectly, which amounted to 10 variables. The data were collected from 200 questionnaires filled by independent surveyor company decision makers from 51 exporting companies and coal trading companies in Indonesia and analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The results show that customer loyalty of independent surveyors is influenced by customer satisfaction, trust, switching-barrier, and relationship-bond. Research on customer satisfaction shows that customer satisfaction is influenced by the perceived quality and perceived value, while perceived quality is influenced by reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy.

Keywords: relationship marketing, customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, switching barriers, relationship bonds

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10037 A Simple Approach to Reliability Assessment of Structures via Anomaly Detection

Authors: Rims Janeliukstis, Deniss Mironovs, Andrejs Kovalovs

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Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is widely applied as a method for Structural Health Monitoring for structural damage identification and assessment by tracking the changes of the identified modal parameters over time. Unfortunately, modal parameters also depend on such external factors as temperature and loads. Any structural condition assessment using modal parameters should be done taking into consideration those external factors, otherwise there is a high chance of false positives. A method of structural reliability assessment based on anomaly detection technique called Machalanobis Squared Distance (MSD) is proposed. It requires a set of reference conditions to learn healthy state of a structure, which all future parameters are compared to. In this study, structural modal parameters (natural frequency and mode shape), as well as ambient temperature and loads acting on the structure are used as features. Numerical tests were performed on a finite element model of a carbon fibre reinforced polymer composite beam with delamination damage at various locations and of various severities. The advantages of the demonstrated approach include relatively few computational steps, ability to distinguish between healthy and damaged conditions and discriminate between different damage severities. It is anticipated to be promising in reliability assessment of massively produced structural parts.

Keywords: operational modal analysis, reliability assessment, anomaly detection, damage, mahalanobis squared distance

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10036 West Nile Virus in North-Eastern Italy: Overview of Integrated Surveillance Activities

Authors: Laura Amato, Paolo Mulatti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Matteo Mazzucato, Laura Gagliazzo, Michele Brichese, Manlio Palei, Gioia Capelli, Lebana Bonfanti

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West Nile virus (WNV) re-emerged in north-eastern Italy in 2008, after ten years from its first appearance in Tuscany. In 2009, a national surveillance programme was implemented, and re-modulated in north-eastern Italy in 2011. Hereby, we present the results of surveillance activities in 2008-2016 in the north-eastern Italian regions, with inferences on WNV epidemiological trend in the area. The re-modulated surveillance programmes aimed at early detecting WNV seasonal reactivation by searching IgM antibodies in horses. In 2013, the surveillance plans were further modified including a risk-based approach. Spatial analysis techniques, including Bernoulli space-time scan-statistics, were applied to the results of 2010–2012 surveillance on mosquitoes, equines, and humans to identify areas where WNV reactivation was more likely to occur. From 2008 to 2016, residential horses tested positive for anti-WNV antibodies on a yearly basis (503 cases), also in areas where WNV circulation was not detected in mosquito populations. Surveillance activities detected 26 syndromic cases in horses, 102 infected mosquito pools and WNV in 18 dead wild birds. Human cases were also recurrently detected in the study area during the surveillance period (68 cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease). The recurrent identification of WNV in animals, mosquitoes, and humans indicates the virus has likely become endemic in the area. In 2016, findings of WNV positives in horses or mosquitoes were included as triggers for enhancing screening activities in humans. The evolution of the epidemiological situation prompts for continuous and accurate surveillance measures. The results of the 2013-2016 surveillance indicate that the risk-based approach was effective in early detecting seasonal reactivation of WNV, key factor of the integrated surveillance strategy in endemic areas.

Keywords: arboviruses, horses, Italy, surveillance, west nile virus, zoonoses

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10035 A Factor-Analytical Approach on Identities in Environmentally Significant Behavior

Authors: Alina M. Udall, Judith de Groot, Simon de Jong, Avi Shankar

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There are many ways in which environmentally significant behavior can be explained. Dominant psychological theories, namely, the theory of planned behavior, the norm-activation theory, its extension, the value-belief-norm theory, and the theory of habit do not explain large parts of environmentally significant behaviors. A new and rapidly growing approach is to focus on how consumer’s identities predict environmentally significant behavior. Identity may be relevant because consumers have many identities that are assumed to guide their behavior. Therefore, we assume that many identities will guide environmentally significant behavior. Many identities can be relevant for environmentally significant behavior. In reviewing the literature, over 200 identities have been studied making it difficult to establish the key identities for explaining environmentally significant behavior. Therefore, this paper first aims to establish the key identities previously used for explaining environmentally significant behavior. Second, the aim is to test which key identities explain environmentally significant behavior. To address the aims, an online survey study (n = 578) is conducted. First, the exploratory factor analysis reveals 15 identity factors. The identity factors are namely, environmentally concerned identity, anti-environmental self-identity, environmental place identity, connectedness with nature identity, green space visitor identity, active ethical identity, carbon off-setter identity, thoughtful self-identity, close community identity, anti-carbon off-setter identity, environmental group member identity, national identity, identification with developed countries, cyclist identity, and thoughtful organisation identity. Furthermore, to help researchers understand and operationalize the identities, the article provides theoretical definitions for each of the identities, in line with identity theory, social identity theory, and place identity theory. Second, the hierarchical regression shows only 10 factors significantly uniquely explain the variance in environmentally significant behavior. In order of predictive power the identities are namely, environmentally concerned identity, anti-environmental self-identity, thoughtful self-identity, environmental group member identity, anti-carbon off-setter identity, carbon off-setter identity, connectedness with nature identity, national identity, and green space visitor identity. The identities explain over 60% of the variance in environmentally significant behavior, a large effect size. Based on this finding, the article reveals a new, theoretical framework showing the key identities explaining environmentally significant behavior, to help improve and align the field.

Keywords: environmentally significant behavior, factor analysis, place identity, social identity

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10034 Socio-Cultural Factors Influencing Adherence to Anti-Retroviral Therapy among HIV Patients in a University Teaching Hospital in South-Western Nigeria

Authors: Okunola Oluseye Ademola

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The study investigated various socio-cultural factors influencing adherence to antiretroviral drugs among people living with HIV in a University Teaching Hospital in South-western Nigeria. The objectives are to examine the perception of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex, Ile-Ife, investigate the influence of socio-cultural factors on adherence of PLWHA to treatment regimen in the study area and assess the prevalence of adherence to ART among PLWHA in the study area. It was a cross-sectional where both qualitative and quantitative research methods were adopted. The participants were HIV diagnosed patients attending clinic at the Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex in Ile-Ife between the ages of 18 and 60 years. Also three healthcare delivery personnel working in the clinic were interviewed. Out of the 3007 patients receiving treatment, using Fischer’s formula of sampling technique, 336 patients living with HIV/AIDS were selected for the study. These participants had been on antiretroviral drugs for more than six months prior to the study and were selected using simple random sampling technique. Two focus group discussion sessions comprising of 10 male and 10 female living with HIV and currently on ART were conducted. These groups were purposively selected based on their being on ART for more than one year. Also in-depth interviews were conducted among three purposively selected healthcare givers (an experienced nurse, a doctor and a pharmacist) who are working in this clinic. All the participants were interviewed at the clinic on the various clinic days. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire, an interview guide and tape-recorder. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Content analysis was employed to analyse responses from IDI and FGD sessions. The findings from the study revealed a very positive perception to ART among PLWHA which was about 86.3% while the level of adherence to ART was 89.0% among the respondents. There was a very strong relationship between social and family supports and the degree of adherence to ART in the PLWHA. Nutrition, polygamy, difficulty in financing transportation fare to the clinic, unemployment, drug hawkers, religion, excuse duty from work and waking up very early were highlighted as socio-cultural barriers to adherence to ART. Fear of death, strong family support, religion belief, not seeking alternative treatment, absence of rituals and perceived improved health status were identified as very strong facilitators to adherence. The study concluded that to achieve a very optimal outcome in the management of HIV among PLWHA, various social and cultural contexts should be taken into consideration as this study was able to ascertain the influence of various socio-cultural factors militating and facilitating adherence to ART.

Keywords: ART, HIV, PLWHA, socio-cultural

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10033 Assessment of the Economic Factors and Motivations towards De-Dollarization since the Early 2000s and Their Implications

Authors: Laila Algalal, Chen Xi

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The US dollar has long served as the world's primary reserve currency. However, this dominance faces growing challenges from internal US economic pressures and the rise of alternative currencies. Internally, issues like high debt, inflation, reduced competitiveness, and economic instability due to inequality in economic policies threaten the dollar's position. Externally, more countries are establishing alternative currencies, payment systems, and regional financial institutions to reduce dollar dependence. These drivers have contributed to a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 71% in 2001 to an estimated 58% in 2022. While this 13-percentage point drop took two decades, recent initiatives suggest de-dollarization could accelerate in the coming few decades. Efforts to establish non-dollar trade deals and alternative financial systems show more substantial progress compared to initiatives in the early 2000s. As the nature of the world system is anarchic, states make either individual or group efforts to guarantee their economic security and achieve their interests. Based on neoclassical realism, this paper analyzes both internal and external US economic factors driving current and future de-dollarization and the implications on the international monetary system, in addition to examining the motivation for such moves.

Keywords: de-dollarization, US dollar, monetary system, economic security, economic policies.

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10032 Dynamics Pattern of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Driving Factors Based on a Cellular Automata Markov Model: A Case Study at Ibb Governorate, Yemen

Authors: Abdulkarem Qasem Dammag, Basema Qasim Dammag, Jian Dai

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Change in Land use and Land cover (LU/LC) has a profound impact on the area's natural, economic, and ecological development, and the search for drivers of land cover change is one of the fundamental issues of LU/LC change. The study aimed to assess the temporal and Spatio-temporal dynamics of LU/LC in the past and to predict the future using Landsat images by exploring the characteristics of different LU/LC types. Spatio-temporal patterns of LU/LC change in Ibb Governorate, Yemen, were analyzed based on RS and GIS from 1990, 2005, and 2020. A socioeconomic survey and key informant interviews were used to assess potential drivers of LU/LC. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the total area of vegetation land decreased by 5.3%, while the area of barren land, grassland, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 2.7%, 1.6%, 1.04%, and 0.06%, respectively. Based on socio-economic surveys and key informant interviews, natural factors had a significant and long-term impact on land change. In contrast, site construction and socio-economic factors were the main driving forces affecting land change in a short time scale. The analysis results have been linked to the CA-Markov Land Use simulation and forecasting model for the years 2035 and 2050. The simulation results revealed from the period 2020 to 2050, the trend of dynamic changes in land use, where the total area of barren land decreased by 7.0% and grassland by 0.2%, while the vegetation land, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 4.6%, 2.6%, and 0.1 %, respectively. Overall, these findings provide LULC's past and future trends and identify drivers, which can play an important role in sustainable land use planning and management by balancing and coordinating urban growth and land use and can also be used at the regional level in different levels to provide as a reference. In addition, the results provide scientific guidance to government departments and local decision-makers in future land-use planning through dynamic monitoring of LU/LC change.

Keywords: LU/LC change, CA-Markov model, driving forces, change detection, LU/LC change simulation

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10031 Prevalence and Intensity of Soil Transmitted Helminth Infections among the School Children in the State of Uttar Pradesh, India

Authors: Prasanta Saini, Junaid Jibran Jawed, Subrata Majumdar

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Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are the major problem in all the nations of the world. The major focus of STH research is to study the prevalence of three major helminths, such as Ascaris, Trituris and hookworm. Here we are reporting the prevalence and intensity of the STH in the school children of the state of Uttar Pradesh, India. The aim of the study is to assess the prevalence and risk factors of STH infection among the school children, aged between 5-10 years in 27 districts randomly selected districts with covering nine agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India. For this cross-sectional survey, we have selected the populations of government primary school going children in Uttar Pradesh. The sampling was performed in the nine different agro-climatic zones. Every individual of the study populations filled their daily information in the questioner's form and then the sample was collected and processed by kato-katz methods by following the guidelines of WHO. In this method, the sampling was performed in total of 6421 populations. A total of 6,421 children from 130 schools were surveyed. Infection with any soil-transmitted helminths was detected among 4,578 children with an overall prevalence of 75.6% (95% CI: 65.3-83.6). Among the 6421 population, the prevalence of Ascaris is 69.6% (95% CL 57.97-79.11), hookworm is 22.7% (95%CL 19.3-26.3) and Trichuris sp is 4.6% (95% CL 0.8-21.6), so the predicted prevalence map indicates that the STH infection was hyperendemic in this state. The findings of our survey in 130 schools covering 9 agro-climatic with one or more soil transmitted helminths. Majority of STH infections were of light intensity. STH infection was hyper-endemic in entire state, except three zones in western Uttar Pradesh. High prevalence ( > 75%) in all age groups also indicate little impact of existing deworming initiatives, including those among pre-school aged children. WHO recommends annual treatment in areas where STH prevalence is between 20% and 50%, and, a bi-annual treatment in areas with prevalence rates of over 50%. In view of high prevalence of STH infection in Uttar Pradesh, it is strongly recommended to initiate a deworming programme for school children in the state. Although our survey was among primary school children, high prevalence among children aged 4-6 years also indicates the need to strengthen the existing deworming programs for pre-school children. Extending the benefits of deworming to pre-school children through deworming in Anganwadi schools would further reduce to decrease the load of infection in community. As a long-term solution for control STH infection, it is also necessary to improve the sanitation levels in the area, as majority of the houses did not have latrines and most of the children were defecating in open fields, a factor that was found to be significantly associated with STH infection.

Keywords: prevalence, school going children, soil transmitted helminthes, Uttar Pradesh-India

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