Search results for: fingertip skin models

Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Lateefat Amao, Misagh Faezipour

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Implementing electronic health records (EHR) in healthcare is a pivotal transition aimed at digitizing and optimizing patient health information management. The expectations associated with this transition are high, even towards other health information systems (HIS) and health technology. This multifaceted process involves careful planning and execution to improve the quality and efficiency of patient care, especially as healthcare technology is a sensitive niche. Key considerations include a thorough needs assessment, judicious vendor selection, robust infrastructure development, and training and adaptation of healthcare professionals. Comprehensive training programs, data migration from legacy systems and models, interoperability, as well as security and regulatory compliance are imperative for healthcare staff to navigate EHR systems adeptly. The purpose of this work is to offer a comprehensive review of the literature on EHR implementation. It explores the impact of this health technology on health practices, highlights challenges and barriers to its successful utility, and offers practical strategies that can impact its success in healthcare. This paper provides a thorough review of studies on the adoption of EHRs, emphasizing the wide range of experiences and results connected to EHR use in the medical field, especially across different types of healthcare organizations.

Keywords: healthcare, electronic health records, EHR implementation, patient care, interoperability

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

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In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

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Authors: Zohreh Asadi-Shekari, Mehdi Moeinaddini, Muhammad Zaly Shah, Amran Hamzah

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Bicycle level of service (BLOS) is a measure for evaluating street conditions for cyclists. Currently, various methods are proposed for BLOS. These analytical methods however have some drawbacks: they usually assume cyclists as users that can share street facilities with motorized vehicles, it is not easy to link them to design process and they are not easy to follow. In addition, they only support a narrow range of cycling facilities and may not be applicable for all situations. Along this, the current paper introduces various effective design factors for bicycle-friendly streets. This study considers cyclists as users of streets who have special needs and facilities. Therefore, the key factors that influence BLOS based on different cycling facilities that are proposed by developed guidelines and literature are identified. The combination of these factors presents a complete set of effective design factors for bicycle-friendly streets. In addition, the weight of each factor in existing BLOS models is estimated and these effective factors are ranked based on these weights. These factors and their weights can be used in further studies to propose special bicycle-friendly street design model.

Keywords: bicycle level of service, bicycle-friendly streets, cycling facilities, rating system, urban streets

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Authors: Hamidoddin Yousife

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Drilling optimization requires a prediction of drilling rate of penetration (ROP) since it provides a significant reduction in drilling costs. There are several factors that can have an impact on the ROP, both controllable and uncontrollable. Numerous drilling penetration rate models have been considered based on drilling parameters. This papers considered the effect of proper drilling parameter selection such as bit, Mud Type, applied weight on bit (WOB), Revolution per minutes (RPM), and flow rate on drilling optimization and drilling cost reduction. A predicted analysis is used in real-time drilling performance to determine the optimal drilling operation. As a result of these modeling studies, the real data collected from three directional wells at Azadegan oil fields, Iran, was verified and adjusted to determine the drillability of a specific formation. Simulation results and actual drilling results show significant improvements in inaccuracy. Once simulations had been validated, optimum drilling parameters and equipment specifications were determined by varying weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), hydraulics (hydraulic pressure), and bit specification for each well until the highest drilling rate was achieved. To evaluate the potential operational and economic benefits of optimizing results, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the data was performed.

Keywords: drlling, cost, optimization, parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Hyun Ah Yoon, Ji Yeon Kang, Hee Sun Kim, Yeong Soo Shin

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Reinforced concrete (RC) shear wall system of residential buildings is popular in South Korea. RC walls are subjected to axial forces in common and the effect of axial forces on the strength loss of the fire damaged walls has not been investigated. This paper aims at investigating temperature distribution on fire damaged concrete walls having different axial loads. In the experiments, a variable of specimens is axial force ratio. RC walls are fabricated with 150mm of wall thicknesses, 750mm of lengths and 1,300mm of heights having concrete strength of 24MPa. After curing, specimens are heated on one surface with ISO-834 standard time-temperature curve for 2 hours and temperature distributions during the test are measured using thermocouples inside the walls. The experimental results show that the temperature of the RC walls exposed to fire increases as axial force ratio increases. To verify the experiments, finite element (FE) models are generated for coupled temperature-structure analyses. The analytical results of thermal behaviors are in good agreement with the experimental results. The predicted displacement of the walls decreases when the axial force increases. 

Keywords: axial force ratio, fire, reinforced concrete wall, residual strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Aakash Kumar R. G., Anees K. Ahamed, Raj M. Mohan

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Effective engine cooling can improve the engine’s life and efficacy. The design of the fin of the cylinder head and block determines the cooling mechanism of air cooled engine. The heat conduction takes place through the engine parts and convection of heat from the surface of the fins takes place with air as the heat transferring medium. The air surrounding the cooling fins helps in removal of heat built up by the air cooled engine. If the heat removal rate is inadequate, it will result in lower engine efficiency and high thermal stresses in the engine. The main drawback of the air cooled engine is the low heat transfer rate of the cooling fins .This work is based on scrutiny of previous researches that involves enhancing of heat transfer rate of cooling fins. The current research is about augmentation of heat transfer rate of longitudinal rectangular fin profiles by varying the length of the fin and diameter of holes on the fins. Thermal and flow analysis is done for two different models of fins. One is simple fin without holes and the other is perforated (consist of holes). It can be inferred from the research that the fins with holes have a higher fin efficiency than the fins without holes. The geometry of the fin is done in CREO. The heat transfer analysis is done using ANSYS software.

Keywords: fins, heat transfer, perforated fins, thermal analysis, thermal flux

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Authors: Emma M. Iglesias

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We have analyzed extreme movements of the main stocks traded in the Eurozone in the 2000-2012 period. Our results can help future very-risk-averse investors to choose their portfolios in the Eurozone for risk management purposes. We find two main results. First, we can clearly classify firms by economic sector according to their different estimated VaR values in five of the seven countries we analyze. In special, we find sectors in general where companies have very high (telecommunications and banking) and very low (petroleum, utilities, energy and consumption) estimated VaR values. Second, we only find differences according to the geographical situation of where the stocks are traded in two countries: (1) all firms in the Irish stock market (the only financially rescued country we analyze) have very high estimated VaR values in all sectors; while (2) in Spain all firms have very low estimated VaR values including in the banking and the telecommunications sectors. All our results are supported when we study also the expected shortfall of the firms.

Keywords: risk management, firms, pareto tail thickness parameter, GARCH-type models, value-at-risk, extreme value theory, heavy tails, stock indexes, eurozone

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Authors: Christian H. Sanabria-Montaña, Rodrigo Huerta-Quintanilla

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A lattice network is a special type of network in which all nodes have the same number of links, and its boundary conditions are periodic. The most basic lattice network is the ring, a one-dimensional network with periodic border conditions. In contrast, the Cartesian product of d rings forms a d-dimensional lattice network. An analytical expression currently exists for the clustering coefficient in this type of network, but the theoretical value is valid only up to certain connectivity value; in other words, the analytical expression is incomplete. Here we obtain analytically the clustering coefficient expression in d-dimensional lattice networks for any link density. Our analytical results show that the clustering coefficient for a lattice network with density of links that tend to 1, leads to the value of the clustering coefficient of a fully connected network. We developed a model on criminology in which the generalized clustering coefficient expression is applied. The model states that delinquents learn the know-how of crime business by sharing knowledge, directly or indirectly, with their friends of the gang. This generalization shed light on the network properties, which is important to develop new models in different fields where network structure plays an important role in the system dynamic, such as criminology, evolutionary game theory, econophysics, among others.

Keywords: clustering coefficient, criminology, generalized, regular network d-dimensional

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Sensitivity analysis as a technique is applied to determine influential input factors on model output. Variance-based sensitivity analysis method has more application compared to other methods because of including linear and non-linear models. In this paper, van Rijn’s movable bed roughness formula was selected to evaluate because of its reasonable results in sandy rivers. This equation contains four variables as: flow depth, sediment size,bBed form height and bed form length. These variable’s importance was determined using the first order of Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test. Sensitivity index was applied to evaluate importance of factors. The first order FAST based sensitivity indices test, explain 90% of the total variance that is indicating acceptance criteria of FAST application. More value of this index is indicating more important variable. Results show that bed form height, bed form length, sediment size and flow depth are more influential factors with sensitivity index: 32%, 24%, 19% and 15% respectively.

Keywords: sdensitivity analysis, variance, movable bed roughness formula, Sandy River

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Authors: Yuntao Liu, Lei Wang, Haoran Xia

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Machine learning has shown extensive applications in the development of classification models for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using neural image data. This paper proposes a fusion multi-modal classification network based on a graph neural network. First, the brain is segmented into 116 regions of interest using a medical segmentation template (AAL, Anatomical Automatic Labeling). The image features of sMRI and the signal features of fMRI are extracted, which build the node and edge embedding representations of the brain map. Then, we construct a dynamically updated brain map neural network and propose a method based on a dynamic brain map adjacency matrix update mechanism and learnable graph to further improve the accuracy of autism diagnosis and recognition results. Based on the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange I dataset(ABIDE I), we reached a prediction accuracy of 74% between ASD and TD subjects. Besides, to study the biomarkers that can help doctors analyze diseases and interpretability, we used the features by extracting the top five maximum and minimum ROI weights. This work provides a meaningful way for brain disorder identification.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, brain map, supervised machine learning, graph network, multimodal data, model interpretability

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Bernard M. Y. Cheung, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Association of C allele of rs662799 SNP of APOA5 gene with metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been reported in different populations around the world. A case control study was conducted to explore the relationship of rs662799 variants (T/C) with the MetS and the associated risk phenotypes in a population of Pakistani origin. Methods: MetS was defined according to the IDF criteria. Blood samples were collected from the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, Islamabad, Pakistan for biochemical profiling and DNA extraction. Genotyping of rs662799 was performed using mass ARRAY, iPEX Gold technology. A total of 712 unrelated case and control subjects were genotyped. Data were analyzed using Plink software and SPSS 16.0. Results: The risk allele C of rs662799 showed highly significant association with MetS (OR=1.5, Ρ=0.002). Among risk phenotypes, dyslipidemia, and obesity showed strong association with SNP (OR=1.49, p=0.03; OR =1.46, p=0.01) respectively in models adjusted for age and gender. Conclusion: The rs662799C allele is a significant risk marker for MetS in the local Pakistani population studied. The effect of the SNP is more on dyslipidemia than the other components of the MetS.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, APOA5, rs662799, dyslipidemia, obesity

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Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu

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Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.

Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing

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Authors: V. B. Bastos, M. P. Lima, P. R. G. Kurka

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This paper applies to the creation of virtual 3D environments for the study and development of mobile robot image based navigation algorithms and techniques, which need to operate robustly and efficiently. The test of these algorithms can be performed in a physical way, from conducting experiments on a prototype, or by numerical simulations. Current simulation platforms for robotic applications do not have flexible and updated models for image rendering, being unable to reproduce complex light effects and materials. Thus, it is necessary to create a test platform that integrates sophisticated simulated applications of real environments for navigation, with data and image processing. This work proposes the development of a high-level platform for building 3D model’s environments and the test of image-based navigation algorithms for mobile robots. Techniques were used for applying texture and lighting effects in order to accurately represent the generation of rendered images regarding the real world version. The application will integrate image processing scripts, trajectory control, dynamic modeling and simulation techniques for physics representation and picture rendering with the open source 3D creation suite - Blender.

Keywords: simulation, visual navigation, mobile robot, data visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash

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The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Be-and/or Zr- treated Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys containing Be and/or Zr. Different aging treatment were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens. The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural and artificial aging was carried out at room temperature, 120C, 150C, 180C and 220C for different periods of time. Duplex aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation data results as a function of different aging parameters are analysed. A statistical design of experiments (DOE) approach using fractional factorial design is applied to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be- and/or Zr- treated 7075 alloys. Mathematical models are developed to relate the alloy mechanical properties with the different aging parameters.

Keywords: casting aging treatment, mechanical properties, Al-Mg-Zn alloys, Be- and/or Zr-treatment, experimental correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Xia Huo

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The composition and metabolites of the gut microbiota can be altered by environmental pollutants. However, the effect of co-exposure to multiple pollutants on the human gut microbiota has not been sufficiently studied. In this study, gut microorganisms and their metabolites were compared between 33 children from Guiyu and 34 children from Haojiang. The exposure level was assessed by estimating the daily intake (EDI) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 6PPD-quinone (6PPDQ), and metal(loid)s in dust. Significant correlations were found between the EDIs of 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, Cu, and both the alpha diversity index and specific metabolites in single-element models. The study found that the Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model showed a negative correlation between the EDIs of five pollutants (6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu) and the Chao 1 index, particularly beyond the 55th percentile. Furthermore, the EDIs of these five pollutants were positively correlated with the levels of the metabolite 2,4-diaminobutyric acid while negatively correlated with the levels of d-erythro-sphingosine and d-threitol. Our research suggests that exposure to 6PPDQ, BDE28, PCB52, Ni, and Cu in kindergarten dust is associated with alterations in the gut microbiota and its metabolites. These alterations may be associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities in children.

Keywords: gut microbiota, 6PPDQ, PBDEs, PCBs, metal(loid)s, BKMR

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Khaled M. Alqahtani

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Copy number alterations (CNA) are variations in the structure of the genome, where certain regions deviate from the typical two chromosomal copies. These alterations are pivotal in understanding tumor progression and are indicative of patients' survival outcomes. However, effectively modeling patients' survival based on their genomic CNA profiles while identifying relevant genomic regions remains a statistical challenge. Various methods, such as the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with ridge, lasso, or elastic net penalties, have been proposed but often overlook the inherent dependencies between genomic regions, leading to results that are hard to interpret. In this study, we enhance the elastic net penalty by incorporating an additional penalty that accounts for these dependencies. This approach yields smooth parameter estimates and facilitates variable selection, resulting in a sparse solution. Our findings demonstrate that this method outperforms other models in predicting survival outcomes, as evidenced by our simulation study. Moreover, it allows for a more meaningful interpretation of genomic regions associated with patients' survival. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using both real data from a lung cancer cohort and simulated datasets.

Keywords: copy number alterations, cox proportional hazard, lung cancer, regression, sparse solution

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Authors: Arpita Roy, Navneeta Bharadvaja

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Cancer is an uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the body. It is one of the most serious diseases on which extensive research work has been going on all over the world. Structure-based drug designing is a computational approach which helps in the identification of potential leads that can be used for the development of a drug. Plumbagin is a naphthoquinone derivative from Plumbago zeylanica roots and belongs to one of the largest and diverse groups of plant metabolites. Anticancer and antiproliferative activities of plumbagin have been observed in animal models as well as in cell cultures. Plumbagin shows inhibitory effects on multiple cancer-signaling proteins; however, the binding mode and the molecular interactions have not yet been elucidated for most of these protein targets. In this investigation, an attempt to provide structural insights into the binding mode of plumbagin against four cancer receptors using molecular docking was performed. Plumbagin showed minimal energy against targeted cancer receptors, therefore suggested its stability and potential towards different cancers. The least binding energies of plumbagin with COX-2, TACE, and CDK6 are -5.39, -4.93, -and 4.81 kcal/mol, respectively. Comparison studies of plumbagin with different receptors showed that it is a promising compound for cancer treatment. It was also found that plumbagin obeys the Lipinski’s Rule of 5 and computed ADMET properties which showed drug likeliness and improved bioavailability. Since plumbagin is from a natural source, it has reduced side effects, and these results would be useful for cancer treatment.

Keywords: cancer, receptor, plumbagin, docking

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Ali Akbar

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The importance of advancing women’s rights is closely intertwined with the development of civil society and the institutionalization of democracy in Middle Eastern countries. There is indeed an intimate relationship between the process of democratization and promoting gender equality, since democracy necessitates equality between men and women. In order to advance the issue of gender equality, what is required is a solid theoretical framework which has its roots in the reexamination of pre-modern interpretation of certain Qurʾānic passages that seem to have given men more rights than it gives women. This paper suggests that those Muslim scholars who adopt a contextualist approach to the Qurʾānic text and its interpretation provide a solid theoretical background for improving women’s rights. Indeed, the aim of the paper is to discuss how the contextualist approach to the Qurʾānic text and its interpretation given by a number of prominent scholars is capable of promoting the issue of gender equality. The paper concludes that since (1) much of the gender inequality found in the primary sources of Islam as well as pre-modern Muslim writings is rooted in the natural cultural norms and standards of early Islamic societies and (2) since the context of today’s world is so different from that of the pre-modern era, the proposed models provide a solid theoretical framework for promoting women’s rights and gender equality.

Keywords: contextualism, gender equality, Islam, the rights of women

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Authors: Vitor S. Mendonca, Maria Luisa S. Schmidt

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The Brazilian medical profession is viewed as being error-free, so healthcare professionals who commit an error are condemned there. Medical errors occur frequently in the Brazilian healthcare system, so identifying better options for handling this issue has become of interest primarily for physicians. The purpose of this study is to better understand the tensions involved in the fear of making an error due to the harm and risk this would represent for those involved. A qualitative study was performed by means of the narratives of the lived experiences of ten acting physicians in the State of Sao Paulo. The concept and characterization of errors were discussed, together with the fear of making an error, the near misses or error in itself, how to deal with errors and what to do to avoid them. The analysis indicates an excessive pressure in the medical profession for error-free practices, with a well-established physician-patient relationship to facilitate the management of medical errors. The error occurs, but a lack of information and discussion often leads to its concealment due to fear or possible judgment by society or peers. The establishment of programs that encourage appropriate medical conduct in the event of an error requires coherent answers for humanization in Brazilian medical science. It is necessary to improve the discussion about medical errors and disseminate models of communication and notification of errors in Brazil.

Keywords: medical error, narrative, physician-patient relationship, qualitative research

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Authors: Jason West

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Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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Authors: Kristina Thorell

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Food security has been one of the most important policy issues on the global arena after the Second World War. The overall aim of this presentation is to describe preconditions for a sustainable food supply from a spatial perspective. Special attention is paid to the differences between advanced and less advanced economies around the world. The theoretical framework is based upon models which are explaining complex systems of factors that affect the preconditions for agricultural productions. In additions to this, theories about how population and environmental pollution change through different stages of societal development are explained. The results are based upon data of agricultural practices, population growth, hunger and nutrition levels from different countries around the world. The analysis shows that factors which affect preconditions for agricultural production are dynamic. Factors which support the food security in the near future are a decreasing population growth, technological development and innovation but the environmental crisis is associated to high risks. It is, therefore, important to develop environmental policies and improved methods for organic farming. A final conclusion is that the spatial pattern is clear; the food supply is sufficient within advanced economies but rather complicated in development countries.

Keywords: food security, agricultural geography, demography, advanced economies, population growth, agricultural practices

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Authors: Mohammad Parsaeimaram, Fang Congqi

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In this paper, one of the significant seismic design parameter as response modification factor in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with base isolation system was evaluated. The seismic isolation system is a capable approach to absorbing seismic energy at the base and transfer to the substructure with lower response modification factor as compared to non-isolated structures. A response spectrum method and static nonlinear pushover analysis in according to Uniform Building Code (UBC-97), have been performed on building models involve 5, 8, 12 and 15 stories building with fixed and isolated bases consist of identical moment resisting configurations. The isolation system is composed of lead rubber bearing (LRB) was designed with help UBC-97 parameters. The force-deformation behavior of isolators was modeled as bi-linear hysteretic behavior which can be effectively used to create the isolation systems. The obtained analytical results highlight the response modification factor of considered base isolation system with higher values than recommended in the codes. The response modification factor is used in modern seismic codes to scale down the elastic response of structures.

Keywords: response modification factor, base isolation system, pushover analysis, lead rubber bearing, bi-linear hysteretic

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: İbrahi̇m Kara, Seher Arslankaya

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Frequently preferred in the field of engineering in particular, data mining has now begun to be used in the field of health as well since the data in the health sector have reached great dimensions. With data mining, it is aimed to reveal models from the great amounts of raw data in agreement with the purpose and to search for the rules and relationships which will enable one to make predictions about the future from the large amount of data set. It helps the decision-maker to find the relationships among the data which form at the stage of decision-making. In this study, it is aimed to determine the risk of heart attack at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning with the method of data mining. Through the early and correct diagnosis of heart attacks, it is aimed to reveal the factors which affect the diseases, to protect health and choose the right treatment methods, to reduce the costs in health expenditures, and to shorten the durations of patients’ stay at hospitals. In this way, the diagnosis and treatment costs of a heart attack will be scrutinized, which will be useful to determine the risk of the disease at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning.

Keywords: data mining, decision support systems, heart attack, health sector

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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We aimed at investigating the association between health beliefs and exercise behavior in infertile women who were at risk of developing osteoporosis. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Sanandaj city, west of Iran in 2018. From 35 comprehensive healthcare centers, 483 infertile women were included in the study through convenience sampling. Standardized face-to-face interviews were conducted using established, reliable instruments for the assessment of exercise behavior behavior and health beliefs. Logistic regression models were applied to assess the association between exercise behavior and health beliefs. Estimates were adjusted for age, job status, income, literacy, and duration and type of infertility. We reported estimated logits and Odds Ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Employed women compared to housewives had substantially higher odds of adopting exercise behavior behaviors (OR=3.19, 95% CI=1.53-6.66, p<0.01). Moreover, the odds of exercise behavior adoption increased with self-efficacy (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.20-1.52, p<0.01), and decreased with perceived barriers (OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.84-0.97, p<0.01). It is essential to increase perceived self-efficacy and reduce perceived barriers to promote EB in infertile women. Consequently, health professionals should develop or adopt appropriate strategies to decrease barriers and increase self-efficacy to enhance exercise behavior in this group of women.

Keywords: infertility, women, exercise, osteoporosis

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Authors: Mário Ernesto Sitoe, Orlando Zacarias

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University education is influenced by several factors that range from the adoption of strategies to strengthen the whole process to the academic performance improvement of the students themselves. This work uses data mining techniques to develop a predictive model to identify students with a tendency to evasion and retention. To this end, a database of real students’ data from the Department of University Admission (DAU) and the Department of Mathematics and Informatics (DMI) was used. The data comprised 388 undergraduate students admitted in the years 2009 to 2014. The Weka tool was used for model building, using three different techniques, namely: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, and logistic regression. To allow for training on multiple train-test splits, a cross-validation approach was employed with a varying number of folds. To reduce bias variance and improve the performance of the models, ensemble methods of Bagging and Stacking were used. After comparing the results obtained by the three classifiers, Logistic Regression using Bagging with seven folds obtained the best performance, showing results above 90% in all evaluated metrics: accuracy, rate of true positives, and precision. Retention is the most common tendency.

Keywords: evasion and retention, cross-validation, bagging, stacking

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Ashish Ashish

Abstract:

In the last few decades, the discrete chaos of difference equations has gained a massive attention of academicians and scholars due to its tremendous applications in each and every branch of science, such as cryptography, traffic control models, secure communications, weather forecasting, and engineering. In this article, a generalized logistic discrete map is established and discrete chaos is reported through period doubling bifurcation, period three orbit and Lyapunov exponent. It is interesting to see that the generalized logistic map exhibits superior chaos due to the presence of an extra degree of freedom of an ordered parameter. The period doubling bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent are demonstrated for some particular values of parameter and the discrete chaos is determined in the sense of Devaney's definition of chaos theoretically as well as numerically. Moreover, the study discusses an extended chaos based image encryption and decryption scheme in cryptography using this novel system. Surprisingly, a larger key space for coding and more sensitive dependence on initial conditions are examined for encryption and decryption of text messages, images and videos which secure the system strongly from external cyber attacks, coding attacks, statistic attacks and differential attacks.

Keywords: chaos, period-doubling, logistic map, Lyapunov exponent, image encryption

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Authors: Nihad Karim Chowdhury, Mohammad Sanaullah Chowdhury, Muhammed Jamshed Alam Patwary, Rubel Biswas

Abstract:

In content-based 3D shape retrieval system, achieving high search performance has become an important research problem. A challenging aspect of this problem is to find an effective shape descriptor which can discriminate similar shapes adequately. To address this problem, we propose a new shape descriptor for 3D shape models by combining multi-resolution with multi-block center-symmetric local binary pattern operator. Given an arbitrary 3D shape, we first apply pose normalization, and generate a set of multi-viewed 2D rendered images. Second, we apply Gaussian multi-resolution filter to generate several levels of images from each of 2D rendered image. Then, overlapped sub-images are computed for each image level of a multi-resolution image. Our unique multi-block CS-LBP comes next. It allows the center to be composed of m-by-n rectangular pixels, instead of a single pixel. This process is repeated for all the 2D rendered images, derived from both ‘depth-buffer’ and ‘silhouette’ rendering. Finally, we concatenate all the features vectors into one dimensional histogram as our proposed 3D shape descriptor. Through several experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed 3D shape descriptor outperform the previous methods by using a benchmark dataset.

Keywords: 3D shape retrieval, 3D shape descriptor, CS-LBP, overlapped sub-images

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