Search results for: time prediction algorithms

Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Boris Melnikov, Ye Zhang, Dmitrii Chaikovskii

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This study explores the pseudo-geometric version of the extensively researched Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), proposing a novel generalization of existing algorithms which are traditionally confined to the geometric version. By adapting the "onion husk" method and introducing auxiliary algorithms, this research fills a notable gap in the existing literature. Through computational experiments using randomly generated data, several metrics were analyzed to validate the proposed approach's efficacy. Preliminary results align with expected outcomes, indicating a promising advancement in TSP solutions.

Keywords: optimization problems, traveling salesman problem, heuristic algorithms, “onion husk” algorithm, pseudo-geometric version

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Authors: Samaila Bawa Muazu

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Hydration process, crack potential and setting time of concrete grade C30, C40 and C50 were separately monitored using non-contact electrical resistivity apparatus, a novel plastic ring mould and penetration resistance method respectively. The results show highest resistivity of C30 at the beginning until reaching the acceleration point when C50 accelerated and overtaken the others, and this period corresponds to its final setting time range, from resistivity derivative curve, hydration process can be divided into dissolution, induction, acceleration and deceleration periods, restrained shrinkage crack and setting time tests demonstrated the earliest cracking and setting time of C50, therefore, this method conveniently and rapidly determines the concrete’s crack potential. The highest inflection time (ti), the final setting time (tf) were obtained and used with crack time in coming up with mathematical models for the prediction of concrete’s cracking age for the range being considered. Finally, ANSYS numerical simulations supports the experimental findings in terms of the earliest crack age of C50 and the crack location that, highest stress concentration is always beneath the artificially introduced expansion joint of C50.

Keywords: concrete hydration, electrical resistivity, restrained shrinkage crack, setting time, simulation

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Authors: Chonlakorn Wiboonsiriruk, Ekachai Phaisangittisagul, Chadchai Srisurangkul, Itsuo Kumazawa

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Public transportation is a crucial aspect of passenger transportation, with buses playing a vital role in the transportation service. Passenger counting is an essential tool for organizing and managing transportation services. However, manual counting is a tedious and time-consuming task, which is why computer vision algorithms are being utilized to make the process more efficient. In this study, different object detection algorithms combined with passenger tracking are investigated to compare passenger counting performance. The system employs the EfficientDet algorithm, which has demonstrated superior performance in terms of speed and accuracy. Our results show that the proposed system can accurately count passengers in varying conditions with an accuracy of 94%.

Keywords: computer vision, object detection, passenger counting, public transportation

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

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Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: central machine learning, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local machine learning, wireless sensor networks, WSN

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Authors: Elisa Coraggio, Dawei Han, Weiru Liu, Theo Tryfonas

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Water is one of the most important resources for human society. The world is currently undergoing a wave of urban growth, and pollution problems are of a great impact. Monitoring water quality is a key task for the future of the environment and human species. In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for environmental monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the artificial intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrates its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for the environment monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a new methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the Artificial Intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrate its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, hydroinformatics, numerical modelling, smart cities, water quality

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Rajakumar Arul, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Sathya Pavithra, Swaminathan Venkatraman

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Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) utilizes the IEEE 802.1X mechanism for authentication. However, this mechanism incurs considerable delay during handoffs. This delay during handoffs results in service disruption which becomes a severe bottleneck. To overcome this delay, our article proposes a key caching mechanism based on user path prediction. If the user mobility follows that path, the user bypasses the normal IEEE 802.1X mechanism and establishes the necessary authentication keys directly. Through analytical and simulation modeling, we have proved that our mechanism effectively decreases the handoff delay thereby achieving fast authentication.

Keywords: authentication, authorization, and accounting (AAA), handoff, mobile, user path prediction (UPP) and user pattern

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Authors: Donggun Lee, Q-Han Park

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Due to its coarse grid, the Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method has advantages against the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) method in terms of memory requirement and operation time. However, since the efficiency of parallelization is much lower than that of FDTD, PSTD is not a useful method for a large-scale electromagnetic simulation in a parallel platform. In this paper, we propose the parallelization technique of the hybrid PSTD-FDTD (HPF) method which simultaneously possesses the efficient parallelizability of FDTD and the quick speed and low memory requirement of PSTD. Parallelization cost of the HPF method is exactly the same as the parallel FDTD, but still, it occupies much less memory space and has faster operation speed than the parallel FDTD. Experiments in distributed memory systems have shown that the parallel HPF method saves up to 96% of the operation time and reduces 84% of the memory requirement. Also, by combining the OpenMP library to the MPI library, we further reduced the operation time of the parallel HPF method by 50%.

Keywords: FDTD, hybrid, MPI, OpenMP, PSTD, parallelization

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Authors: Rafal Michalski, Jakub Zygadlo

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We present the concept and scientific methods and algorithms of our computation system called ATOMIC MATTERS. This is the first presentation of the new computer package, that allows its user to describe physical properties of atomic localized electron systems subject to electromagnetic interactions. Our solution applies to situations where an unclosed electron 2p/3p/3d/4d/5d/4f/5f subshell interacts with an electrostatic potential of definable symmetry and external magnetic field. Our methods are based on Crystal Electric Field (CEF) approach, which takes into consideration the electrostatic ligands field as well as the magnetic Zeeman effect. The application allowed us to predict macroscopic properties of materials such as: Magnetic, spectral and calorimetric as a result of physical properties of their fine electronic structure. We emphasize the importance of symmetry of charge surroundings of atom/ion, spin-orbit interactions (spin-orbit coupling) and the use of complex number matrices in the definition of the Hamiltonian. Calculation methods, algorithms and convention recalculation tools collected in ATOMIC MATTERS were chosen to permit the prediction of magnetic and spectral properties of materials in isostructural series.

Keywords: atomic matters, crystal electric field (CEF) spin-orbit coupling, localized states, electron subshell, fine electronic structure

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Authors: Madushani Rodrigo, Banuka Athuraliya

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In today's world of medical diagnosis and prediction, machine learning stands out as a strong tool, transforming old ways of caring for health. This study analyzes the use of machine learning in the specialized domain of sports medicine, with a focus on the timely and accurate detection of bone fractures in cricket athletes. Failure to identify bone fractures in real time can result in malunion or non-union conditions. To ensure proper treatment and enhance the bone healing process, accurately identifying fracture locations and types is necessary. When interpreting X-ray images, it relies on the expertise and experience of medical professionals in the identification process. Sometimes, radiographic images are of low quality, leading to potential issues. Therefore, it is necessary to have a proper approach to accurately localize and classify fractures in real time. The research has revealed that the optimal approach needs to address the stated problem and employ appropriate radiographic image processing techniques and object detection algorithms. These algorithms should effectively localize and accurately classify all types of fractures with high precision and in a timely manner. In order to overcome the challenges of misidentifying fractures, a distinct model for fracture localization and classification has been implemented. The research also incorporates radiographic image enhancement and preprocessing techniques to overcome the limitations posed by low-quality images. A classification ensemble model has been implemented using ResNet18 and VGG16. In parallel, a fracture segmentation model has been implemented using the enhanced U-Net architecture. Combining the results of these two implemented models, the FracXpert system can accurately localize exact fracture locations along with fracture types from the available 12 different types of fracture patterns, which include avulsion, comminuted, compressed, dislocation, greenstick, hairline, impacted, intraarticular, longitudinal, oblique, pathological, and spiral. This system will generate a confidence score level indicating the degree of confidence in the predicted result. Using ResNet18 and VGG16 architectures, the implemented fracture segmentation model, based on the U-Net architecture, achieved a high accuracy level of 99.94%, demonstrating its precision in identifying fracture locations. Simultaneously, the classification ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 81.0%, showcasing its ability to categorize various fracture patterns, which is instrumental in the fracture treatment process. In conclusion, FracXpert has become a promising ML application in sports medicine, demonstrating its potential to revolutionize fracture detection processes. By leveraging the power of ML algorithms, this study contributes to the advancement of diagnostic capabilities in cricket athlete healthcare, ensuring timely and accurate identification of bone fractures for the best treatment outcomes.

Keywords: multiclass classification, object detection, ResNet18, U-Net, VGG16

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Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

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Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Fitri CaturLestari

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According to National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN), demographic bonus will occur in 2025-2035, when the number of people within the productive age bracket is higher than the number of elderly people and children. This time will be a gold moment for Indonesia to achieve maximum productivity and prosperity. But it will be a demographic bomb if it isn’t balanced by economic and social aspect considerations. Therefore it is important to make a prediction mapping of all provinces in Indonesia whether in demographic bomb or bonus condition after 100 years Indonesian independence. The purpose of this research were to make the demographic mapping based on the economic and social aspects of the provinces in Indonesia and categorizing them into demographic bomb and bonus condition. The research data are gained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) as the secondary data. The multiregional component method, regression and quadrant analysis were used to predict the number of people, economic growth, Human Development Index (HDI), and gender equality in education and employment. There were different characteristic of provinces in Indonesia from economic aspect and social aspect. The west Indonesia was already better developed than the east one. The prediction result, many provinces in Indonesia will get demographic bonus but the others will get demographic bomb. It is important to prepare particular strategy to particular provinces with all of their characteristic based on the prediction result so the demographic bomb can be minimalized.

Keywords: demography, economic growth, gender, HDI

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

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Authors: Binger Lu

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It remains unclear whether second language (L2) speakers could use discourse context cues to predict upcoming information as native speakers do during online comprehension. Some researchers propose that L2 learners may have a reduced ability to generate predictions during discourse processing. At the same time, there is evidence that discourse-level cues are weighed more heavily in L2 processing than in L1. Previous studies showed that L1 prediction is sensitive to the global validity of predictive cues. The current study aims to explore whether and to what extent L2 learners can dynamically and strategically adjust their prediction in accord with the global validity of predictive cues in L2 discourse comprehension as native speakers do. In a self-paced reading experiment, Chinese native speakers (N=128), C-E bilinguals (N=128), and English native speakers (N=128) read high-predictable (e.g., Jimmy felt thirsty after running. He wanted to get some water from the refrigerator.) and low-predictable (e.g., Jimmy felt sick this morning. He wanted to get some water from the refrigerator.) discourses in two-sentence frames. The global validity of predictive cues was manipulated by varying the ratio of predictable (e.g., Bill stood at the door. He opened it with the key.) and unpredictable fillers (e.g., Bill stood at the door. He opened it with the card.), such that across conditions, the predictability of the final word of the fillers ranged from 100% to 0%. The dependent variable was reading time on the critical region (the target word and the following word), analyzed with linear mixed-effects models in R. C-E bilinguals showed reliable prediction across all validity conditions (β = -35.6 ms, SE = 7.74, t = -4.601, p< .001), and Chinese native speakers showed significant effect (β = -93.5 ms, SE = 7.82, t = -11.956, p< .001) in two of the four validity conditions (namely, the High-validity and MedLow conditions, where fillers ended with predictable words in 100% and 25% cases respectively), whereas English native speakers didn’t predict at all (β = -2.78 ms, SE = 7.60, t = -.365, p = .715). There was neither main effect (χ^²(3) = .256, p = .968) nor interaction (Predictability: Background: Validity, χ^²(3) = 1.229, p = .746; Predictability: Validity, χ^²(3) = 2.520, p = .472; Background: Validity, χ^²(3) = 1.281, p = .734) of Validity with speaker groups. The results suggest that prediction occurs in L2 discourse processing but to a much less extent in L1, witha significant effect in some conditions of L1 Chinese and anull effect in L1 English processing, consistent with the view that L2 speakers are more sensitive to discourse cues compared with L1 speakers. Additionally, the pattern of L1 and L2 predictive processing was not affected by the global validity of predictive cues. C-E bilinguals’ predictive processing could be partly transferred from their L1, as prior research showed that discourse information played a more significant role in L1 Chinese processing.

Keywords: bilingualism, discourse processing, global validity, prediction, self-paced reading

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Authors: Kiyoumars Roushangar, Saeid Sadaghian

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Although accurate sediment load prediction is very important in planning, designing, operating and maintenance of water resources structures, the transport mechanism is complex, and the deterministic transport models are based on simplifying assumptions often lead to large prediction errors. In this research, firstly, two intelligent ANN methods, Radial Basis and General Regression Neural Networks, are adopted to model of total sediment load transport into Madani Dam reservoir (north of Iran) using the measured data and then applicability of the sediment transport methods developed by Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Yang, and Toffaleti for predicting of sediment load discharge are evaluated. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the GRNN model gives better estimates than the sediment rating curve and mentioned classic methods.

Keywords: sediment transport, dam reservoir, RBF, GRNN, prediction

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Authors: Alexandre Barbosa de Almeida, Telma Woerle de Lima Soares

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Protein structure prediction is a challenging task in the bioinformatics field. The biological function of all proteins majorly relies on the shape of their three-dimensional conformational structure, but less than 1% of all known proteins in the world have their structure solved. This work proposes a deep learning model to address this problem, attempting to predict some aspects of the protein conformations. Throughout a process of multiobjective dominance, a recurrent neural network was trained to abstract the particular bias of each individual multiobjective algorithm, generating a heuristic that could be useful to predict some of the relevant aspects of the three-dimensional conformation process formation, known as protein folding.

Keywords: Ab initio heuristic modeling, multiobjective optimization, protein structure prediction, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

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Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

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Authors: Danladi Ali, Abdullahi Mukaila

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In this work, GSM signal strength (power) was monitored in an indoor environment. Samples of the GSM signal strength was measured on mobile equipment (ME). One-dimensional multilevel wavelet is used to predict the fading phenomenon of the GSM signal measured and neural network clustering to determine the average power received in the study area. The wavelet prediction revealed that the GSM signal is attenuated due to the fast fading phenomenon which fades about 7 times faster than the radio wavelength while the neural network clustering determined that -75dBm appeared more frequently followed by -85dBm. The work revealed that significant part of the signal measured is dominated by weak signal and the signal followed more of Rayleigh than Gaussian distribution. This confirmed the wavelet prediction.

Keywords: decomposition, clustering, propagation, model, wavelet, signal strength and spectral efficiency

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Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

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Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

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Authors: Ciro Cursio, Giulia Cursio, Pio Luigi Cursio, Luigi Cursio

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Communication between practitioner and patient is of the utmost importance in aesthetic medicine: as of today, images of previous treatments are the most common tool used by doctors to describe and anticipate future results for their patients. However, using photos of other people often reduces the engagement of the prospective patient and is further limited by the number and quality of pictures available to the practitioner. Pre-existing work solves this issue in two ways: 3D scanning of the area with manual editing of the 3D model by the doctor or automatic prediction of the treatment by warping the image with hand-written parameters. The first approach requires the manual intervention of the doctor, while the second approach always generates results that aren’t always realistic. Thus, in one case, there is significant manual work required by the doctor, and in the other case, the prediction looks artificial. We propose an AI-based algorithm that autonomously generates a realistic prediction of treatment results. For the purpose of this study, we focus on hyaluronic acid treatments in the facial area. Our approach takes into account the individual characteristics of each face, and furthermore, the prediction system allows the patient to decide which area of the face she wants to modify. We show that the predictions generated by our system are realistic: first, the quality of the generated images is on par with real images; second, the prediction matches the actual results obtained after the treatment is completed. In conclusion, the proposed approach provides a valid tool for doctors to show patients what they will look like before deciding on the treatment.

Keywords: prediction, hyaluronic acid, treatment, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

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Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

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Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

Abstract:

This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER

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Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz

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This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

Abstract:

The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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