Search results for: historical trends

Authors: Suraj Mehrotra

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The stock market is a volatile, bustling marketplace that is a cornerstone of economics. It defines whether companies are successful or in spiral. A thorough understanding of it is important - many companies have whole divisions dedicated to analysis of both their stock and of rivaling companies. Linking the world of finance and artificial intelligence (AI), especially the stock market, has been a relatively recent development. Predicting how stocks will do considering all external factors and previous data has always been a human task. With the help of AI, however, machine learning models can help us make more complete predictions in financial trends. Taking a look at the stock market specifically, predicting the open, closing, high, and low prices for the next day is very hard to do. Machine learning makes this task a lot easier. A model that builds upon itself that takes in external factors as weights can predict trends far into the future. When used effectively, new doors can be opened up in the business and finance world, and companies can make better and more complete decisions. This paper explores the various techniques used in the prediction of stock prices, from traditional statistical methods to deep learning and neural networks based approaches, among other methods. It provides a detailed analysis of the techniques and also explores the challenges in predictive analysis. For the accuracy of the testing set, taking a look at four different models - linear regression, neural network, decision tree, and naïve Bayes - on the different stocks, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, United Healthcare, Exxon Mobil, J.P. Morgan & Chase, and Johnson & Johnson, the naïve Bayes model and linear regression models worked best. For the testing set, the naïve Bayes model had the highest accuracy along with the linear regression model, followed by the neural network model and then the decision tree model. The training set had similar results except for the fact that the decision tree model was perfect with complete accuracy in its predictions, which makes sense. This means that the decision tree model likely overfitted the training set when used for the testing set.

Keywords: machine learning, testing set, artificial intelligence, stock analysis

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Authors: Dicle Aydın, Süheyla Büyükşahin Sıramkaya

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Conservation concept gained importance especially in 19th century, it found value with the change and developments lived globally. Basic values in the essence of the concept are important in the continuity of historical and cultural fabrics which have character special to them. Reuse of settlements and spaces carrying historical and cultural values in the frame of socio-cultural and socio-economic conditions is related with functional value. Functional dimension of reuse signifies interrogation of the usage potential of the building with a different aim other than its determined aim. If a building carrying historical and cultural values cannot be used with its own function because of environmental, economical, structural and functional reasons, it is advantageous to maintain its reuse from the point of environmental ecology. By giving a new function both a requirement of the society is fulfilled and a culture entity is conserved because of its functional value. In this study, functional dimension of reuse is exemplified in Antalya Kaleiçi where has a special location and importance with its natural, cultural and historical heritage characteristics. Antayla Kaleiçi settlement preserves its liveliness as a touristic urban fabric with its almost fifty thousand years of past, traditional urban form, civil architectural examples of 18th–19th century reflecting the life style of the region and monumental buildings. The civil architectural examples in the fabric have a special character formed according to Mediterranean climate with their outer sofa (open or closed), one, two or three storey, courtyards and oriels. In the study reuse of five civil architectural examples as boutique hotel by forming a whole with their environmental arrangements is investigated, it is analyzed how the spatial requirements of a boutique hotel are fulfilled in traditional dwellings. Usage of a cultural entity as a boutique hotel is evaluated under the headlines of i.functional requirement, ii.satisfactoriness of spatial dimensions, iii.functional organization. There are closed and open restaurant, kitchen, pub, lobby, administrative offices in the hotel with 70 bed capacity and 28 rooms in total. There are expansions to urban areas on second and third floors by the means of oriels in the hotel surrounded by narrow streets in three directions. This boutique hotel, formed by unique five different dwellings having similar plan scheme in traditional fabric, is different with its structure opened to outside and connected to each other by the means of courtyards, and its outside spaces which gained mobility because of the elevation differences in courtyards.

Keywords: reuse, adaptive reuse, functional dimension of reuse, traditional dwellings

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Authors: Sayed M. Ahmed, Sawsan S. Darwish, Mahmoud A. Adam, Nagib A. Elmarzugi, Mohammad A. Al-Dosari, Nadia A. Al-Mouallimi

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Historical stone surfaces and architectural heritage especially which located in open areas may undergo unwanted changes due to the exposure to many physical and chemical deterioration factors, air pollution, soluble salts, Rh/temperature, and biodeterioration are the main causes of decay of stone building materials. The development and application of self-cleaning treatments on historical and architectural stone surfaces could be a significant improvement in conservation, protection, and maintenance of cultural heritage. In this paper, nanometric titanium dioxide has become a promising photocatalytic material owing to its ability to catalyze the complete degradation of many organic contaminants and represent an appealing way to create self-cleaning surfaces, thus limiting maintenance costs, and to promote the degradation of polluting agents. The obtained nano-TiO2 coatings were applied on travertine (Marble and limestone often used in historical and monumental buildings). The efficacy of the treatments has been evaluated after coating and artificial thermal aging, through capillary water absorption, Ultraviolet-light exposure to evaluate photo-induced and the hydrophobic effects of the coated surface, while the surface morphology before and after treatment was examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The changes of molecular structure occurring in treated samples were spectroscopy studied by FTIR-ATR, and Colorimetric measurements have been performed to evaluate the optical appearance. All the results get together with the apparent effect that coated TiO2 nanoparticles is an innovative method, which enhanced the durability of stone surfaces toward UV aging, improved their resistance to relative humidity and temperature, self-cleaning photo-induced effects are well evident, and no alteration of the original features.

Keywords: architectural calcareous stone monuments, coating, photocatalysis TiO2, self-cleaning, thermal aging

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Authors: Srinivas Vangari

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With the technological advancements around the globe, artificial intelligence (AI) has boosted supply chain management (SCM) by improving efficiency, sensitivity, and promptness. Artificial intelligence-based SCM provides comprehensive perceptions of consumer behavior in dynamic market situations and trends, foreseeing the accurate demand. It reduces overproduction and stockouts while optimizing production planning and streamlining operations. Consequently, the AI-driven SCM produces a customer-centric supply with resilient and robust operations. Intending to delve into the transformative significance of AI in SCM, this study focuses on improving efficiency in SCM with the integration of AI, understanding the production demand, accurate forecasting, and particular production planning. The study employs a mixed-method approach and expert survey insights to explore the challenges and benefits of AI applications in SCM. Further, a case analysis is incorporated to identify the best practices and potential challenges with the critical success features in AI-driven SCM. Key findings of the study indicate the significant advantages of the AI-integrated SCM, including optimized inventory management, improved transportation and logistics management, cost optimization, and advanced decision-making, positioning AI as a pivotal force in the future of supply chain management.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, supply chain management, accurate forecast, accurate planning of production, understanding demand

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Authors: Yan Ziwei

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This article attempts to restore the subjectivity of Indian-educated middle-class women during the partition period through three partition novels: Anita Desai’s Clear Light of Day (1980), Amitav Ghosh’s The Shadow Lines (1988), and Vikram Seth’s A Suitable Boy (1993). Despite extensive research on women in partition, there is little focus on the group of educated middle-class women. In mainstream historical and political discourse, these women have consistently been constructed within the official discourse dominated by males. They are either ‘Mother India’, or the ‘new woman’ to meet the requirements of India’s changing political atmosphere. However, by delving into the particular historical context and personal experience of the educated middle-class women in the three novels, the article argues that they continuously subvert the essentialized identities imposed upon them by different versions of official discourse. As the embodiment of Shakti, they are distinct from the archetypes of ‘Mother India’ and the ‘new woman’. Instead, they create their ideal family spaces based on their personal cognition and transcend the homogeneous gender discourse to reflect the fluid and complex nature of female identity.

Keywords: Indian educated middle-class women, subjectivity, partition novels, Mother India, new woman, Shakti

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Authors: Dahunsi Michael Oluseyi

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This paper aims to extensively examine eco-city planning and urban design in Lagos, Nigeria. It will delve into the city's developments, challenges, and potential solutions to offer insights for sustainable urban growth within the rapidly expanding urban landscape. The research will scrutinize recent innovations, emerging trends, and practical remedies to promote ecological sustainability within an urban framework. It will encompass a more in-depth review of current literature, case studies, and qualitative analyses, thereby augmenting the depth and breadth of the research. The objectives are to assess the current eco-city planning initiatives and urban design trends in Lagos, Nigeria, considering the city's unique characteristics and challenges. To identify and analyze the challenges encountered during the implementation of eco-friendly urban developments in Lagos, to explore and evaluate the innovative and practical solutions that are implemented to promote sustainability within the city, to provide comprehensive insights and actionable recommendations for policymakers, urban planners, and other stakeholders involved in sustainable urban development in Lagos, the rapid urbanization of Lagos has brought forth a myriad of challenges, including a burgeoning population, inadequate infrastructure, waste management issues, and environmental pollution. Eco-city planning has emerged as a promising approach to addressing these obstacles, striving to create urban spaces that are more habitable, resource-efficient, and environmentally friendly. This research holds substantial importance in exploring the application of eco-city planning principles within a megacity like Lagos. Analyzing recent innovations, trends, concerns, challenges, and solutions provides invaluable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders dedicated to fostering sustainable urban development. The methodologies employed in this research are structured to embrace a multifaceted and intricate approach, aiming to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the complexities inherent in eco-city planning and urban design in Lagos, Nigeria. This methodological framework is designed to encompass various diverse strategies and analytical tools to effectively capture the multidimensional aspects of sustainable urban development. It involves an in-depth analysis of academic publications, governmental reports, and urban planning documents to highlight global eco-city planning trends and gather Lagos-specific insights through a detailed exploration of eco-friendly initiatives and projects in Lagos to evaluate successes, challenges, and strategies for addressing environmental concerns by engaging key stakeholders, including urban planners, policymakers, environmental experts, and residents, to collect firsthand perspectives, concerns, and insights. Also, a thorough analysis will be carried out on data collected from literature reviews, case studies, interviews, and surveys used to extract prevalent patterns, challenges, and innovative solutions from diverse sources. This study aims to contribute to the discourse on sustainable urban development by offering a comprehensive analysis of eco-city planning in Lagos and providing practical recommendations for a more sustainable urban future.

Keywords: eco-friendly, innovation, sustainability, stakeholders

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Authors: Jack S. Pullman, Daniel Wen, Avinash Sharma, Bert Van Der Werf, Richard Martin

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Background: New Zealand (NZ) melanoma incidence rates are amongst the highest in the world. Previous studies investigating the incidence of melanoma in NZ were performed for the periods 1995 – 1999 and 2000 – 2004 and suggested increasing melanoma incidence rates. Aim: The aim of the study is to provide an up-to-date review of trends in cutaneous melanoma in NZ from the New Zealand Cancer Registry (NZCR) 2010 – 2020. Methods: De-identified data were obtained from the NZCR, and relevant demographic and histopathologic information was extracted. Statistical analyses were conducted to calculate age-standardized incidence rates for invasive melanoma (IM) and melanoma in situ (MIS). Secondary results included Breslow thickness and melanoma subtype analysis. Results: There was a decline in the IM age-standardized incidence rate from 30.4 to 23.9 per 100,000 person-years between 2010 to 2020, alongside an increase in MIS incidence rate from 37.1 to 50.3 per 100,000 person-years. Men had a statistically significant higher IM incidence rate (p <0.001) and Breslow thickness (p <0.001) compared with women. Increased age was associated with a higher incidence of IM, presentation with melanoma of greater Breslow thickness and more advanced T stage. Conclusion: The incidence of IM in NZ has decreased in the last decade and was associated with an increase in MIS incidence over the same period. This can be explained due to earlier detection, dermoscopy, the maturity of prevention campaigns and/or a change in skin protection behavior.

Keywords: melanoma, incidence, epidemiology, New Zealand

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Authors: I. V. Kuzminov

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The research is dedicated to the issue of Bosporus evolution and its key role in the Black Sea forming. Up till nowadays, there is no distinct picture of the historical and geographical events of the last 10 thousand years on the territory from Altai up to the Alps. The present article is an attempt to clarify and, moreover, link the presented version to the historical and climatic events of this period. The paper is a development of the basic idea stated in "Hypothesis on the Black Sea origin". The succession of events in dynamics is offered in this article. In the article, it is shown that fluctuation of the level of the World Ocean is a mirror of the basic events connected with the climate on the Earth on the one hand and hydraulic processes on the other hand. In the present article, it is come out with the assumption that at the formation of passage, there were some cycles of change in a level of the World ocean. The phase of the beginning of climate warming is characterized by an increase in the level of inland water bodies on the way of meltwater runoff and an increase in the World ocean level. The end of the warming phase is characterized by the continuation of a rise in the level of the World ocean and the drying up of inland water bodies deprived of meltwater replenishment.

Keywords: Bosporus, Ryan-Pitman hypothesis, fluctuations of the World Ocean level, the Paratethys Sea, catastrophic breakthrough

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Authors: Suparwoko, M. Hardyan Prastyanto, Aisah Azhari Marwangi

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Today, we face with some paradoxical tendencies. In the field of culture, on the one hand, we are witnessing the emergence of ethnic and religious fervor that is becoming stronger, but on the other hand, we are also witnessing a new ideology that characterized the flow of transnationalism, globalism, and secularism. Through social media, the globalization movement is accommodated to spread all over the world. Globalization also requires the commercialization of many fields, including architecture. In the architecture of commercial buildings, the appeal of the building is an important aspect for the function of the building. That theory is the basis for research of this study. This study aimed to know the influence of social media on the changing trends in the design of restaurant in urban areas of Yogyakarta Province. This study is using observation (survey) method to restaurants in Yogyakarta and surrounding areas to collect data, then the assessment of data by using the theory of the social media Path and Instagram that provide trend information from interior and building facades of the restaurant. By using social media Path and Instagram based survey methods, it can be seen that the intensity of social media users who publish or promote restaurant that has been chosen. Generally, conventional character of the restaurant have changed into a material and visually conceptual restaurant.

Keywords: influence, social media, changes, architecture trend

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Authors: Sennanda Musa, Ahmed Mutunzi Kitunzi, Gerald Kasigwa, Ismail Kintu

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This paper is an analysis of the empirical relationship between project financing by Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the poverty trends in the context of countries benefiting from IsDB. Specifically, the study seeks to find out whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the project financing dollar amounts by IsDB (PF) and the GNI Per Capita, PPP of 57 countries for the years 2002 to 2021. The research is a longitudinal, desk-top triangulation of correlation, regression, hypothesis-testing employing the linear dynamic panel data GMM model as an estimator of the empirical relationships between the key variables of the study. The study results show that there is a significant positive relationship between the PF dollar amounts from the IsDB and the GNI Per Capita, PPP in these 57 countries. Therefore, countries that receive higher PF dollar amounts from the IsDB, generally have more GNI Per Capita, PPP (less poverty) than their counterparts. It is, therefore, recommendable for countries to formulate policies that facilitate Islamically financed projects to mitigate poverty. This paper develops policy discussions regarding allocation of political attention to the policy topics on poverty mitigation, and their relation to financing projects Islamically, thus generate information on policy choices regarding the Islamic financing alternative.

Keywords: gross-national-income, IsDB-project-financing, public policy, poverty

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Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

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Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

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Authors: Karam Al-Assaf, Israa Al Khaffaf, Ryan Al Tayeb, Ayman Alzaatreh

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A significant, manageable hazard to public health, happiness, and the achievement of sustainable development is air pollution. Outdoor air pollution has increased globally over the previous years, exposing billions of people worldwide to hazardous air. With UAE being no different, there are a variety of pollution-related problems that need to be addressed. Therefore, to gain insights from the government and decision makers, this study aims to analyze the annual trends of the five major air pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, CO, and PM10) across five emirates in the UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, and Ras AL Khaimah) from 2013 to 2020. The results of the analysis revealed that air pollutants NO2, SO2, and PM10 were significantly different across the years and states. Moreover, it was found that the levels of NO2 are significantly different in Dubai across the years. Moreover, the levels of SO2 are significantly different in Sharjah across the years. Furthermore, it was found that PM10 was significantly different in Ajman across the years. Moreover, the analysis of the significant difference in the pollutants in the three areas (Downtown, Residential, Industrial) revealed that there is no significant difference in the pollutant levels across the years in the three different areas. This tool has shown its effectiveness in monitoring pollutant trends, providing valuable data for government investigations and control measures across the UAE. Additionally, it serves as a valuable resource for decision-makers to develop and implement policies aimed at improving pollutant levels.

Keywords: air pollution, air pollutant, repeated measures, MANOVA, UAE

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Authors: Renáta Nagy, Alexandra Csongor, Vilmos Warta

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The presentation aims at eliciting insight into the results of ongoing research regarding evolving trends and attitudes towards online assessment of English and other languages. The focus pinpoints online as one of the most trending forms available during the global pandemic. The study was first initiated in 2019 in which its main target was to reveal the intriguing question of students’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online assessment. The research questions the attitudes towards the latest trends, possible online task types, and their advantages and disadvantages through an in-depth experimental process currently undergoing implementation. Material and methods include surveys, needs and wants analysis, and thorough investigations regarding candidates’ and assessors’ attitudes towards online tests in the field of languages. Over 400 respondents from more than 28 countries participated in the survey, which gives us an international and intercultural insight into how students with different cultural and educational background deal with the evolving online world. The results show the pandemic’s impact, which brought the slumbering online world of assessing roaring alive, fully operational, and now bears phenomenal relevance in today’s global education. Undeniably, the results can be used as a perspective in a vast array of contents. The survey hypothesized the generation of the 21st century expect everything readily available online, however, questions whether they are ready for this challenge are lurking in the background.

Keywords: assessment, english, intercultural, international, online, testing

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Authors: Nnaemeka Enemchukwu

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In modern-day Nigeria, the spirit of Biafra, the defunct secessionist state of former Eastern Nigeria, endures. While some attempt to downplay the historical factors that led to its creation, this paper aims to demonstrate that the 1966 pogroms in Nigeria, which claimed the lives of over 30,000 Igbo people, shattered their faith in the nation's ability to provide security and acceptance. This loss of faith led to a mass exodus from various regions of the country back to their homeland in Eastern Nigeria. Utilizing primary sources such as interviews and archival reports, and secondary sources like books, journals, and websites, this paper will argue that the trauma and terror of the 1966 massacres were the primary drivers of secessionist sentiment and self-determination among the Igbo people, ultimately leading to the declaration of Biafra. By drawing parallels with other historical incidents across the globe, this paper will establish the theoretical connection between shocking events, identity questioning among traumatized groups, and the subsequent rise of nationalistic sentiments seeking to ensure group preservation. To achieve its objective, this paper will employ descriptive, narrative, and chronological methods of analysis to present and discuss its findings.

Keywords: Igbo, pogrom, shock, trauma, nationalism, Biafra

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Francisco Andree Ramirez-Casas, Alondra Orozco-Gomez, Miguel Angel Sanchez-Caro, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

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High concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere pose a threat to human health, especially over areas with high concentrations of population; however, field air pollution monitoring is expensive and time-consuming. In order to achieve reduced costs and global coverage of the whole urban area, remote sensing can be used. This study evaluates PM2.5 concentrations, over the Mexico City´s metropolitan area, are estimated using atmospheric reflectance from LANDSAT 8, satellite imagery and historical PM2.5 measurements of the Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City (RAMA). Through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated to evaluate the optimal bands for the generation of the final model for Mexico City. Work on the final model continues with the results of the preliminary model. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air pollution modeling, Landsat 8, PM2.5, remote sensing

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Authors: Muhammad Jawad Hashmi

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The idea of nuclear terrorism is as old as nuclear weapons but the global concerns of likelihood of nuclear terrorism are uncertain. Post 9/11 trends manifest that terrorists are believers of massive causalities. Innovation in terrorist’s tactics, sophisticated weaponry, vulnerability, theft and smuggling of nuclear/radiological material, connections between terrorists, black market and rough regimes are signaling seriousness of upcoming challenges as well as global trends of “terror-transnationalism.” Furthermore, the International-Atomic-Energy-Agency’s database recorded 2734 incidents regarding misuse, unauthorized possession, trafficking of nuclear material etc. Since, this data also includes incidents from south Asia, so, there is every possibility to claim that such illicit activities may increase in future, mainly due to expansion of nuclear industry in South Asia. Moreover, due to such mishaps the region is vulnerable to threats of nuclear terrorism. This is also a reason that the region is in limelight along with issues such as rapidly growing nuclear arsenals, nuclear safety and security, terrorism and political instability. With this backdrop, this study is aimed to investigate the prevailing threats and challenges in South Asia vis a vis nuclear safety and security. A comparative analysis of the overall capabilities would be done to identify the areas of cooperation to eliminate the probability of nuclear/radiological terrorism in the region.

Keywords: nuclear terrorism, safety, security, South Asia, india, Pakistan

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Authors: Duy Nguyen Do, Bart Julien Dewancker

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Many Soviet-style collective housing complexes (also known as KTT) were built since the 1960s in Hanoi to support the post-war population growth. Those low-rise buildings have created well-knitted, robust communities, so much to the point that in most complexes, all families in one housing block would know each other, occasionally interact and provide supports in need. To understand how the community of collective housing complexes have developed and maintained in order to adapt their advantages into modern housing designs, the study is executed on the site of Nguyen Cong Tru KTT. This is one of the oldest KTT in Hanoi, completed in 1954. The complex also has an unique characteristic that is closely related to its community: the symbiotic relationship with Hom – a flea market that has been co-developing with Nguyen Cong Tru KTT since its beginning. The research consists of three phases: the first phase is a sociological investigation with Nguyen Cong Tru KTT’s current residents and a site survey on the complex’s economic and architectural characteristics. In the second phase, the collected data is analyzed to find out people’s opinions with the KTT’s concerning their satisfaction with the current housing status, floor plan organization, community, the relationship between the KTT’s dedicated public spaces with the flea market and their usage. Simultaneously, the master plan and gathered information regarding current architectural characteristics of the complex are also inspected. On the third phase, the analyses’ results will provide information regarding the issues, positive trends and significant historical features of the complex’s architecture in order to generate suitable proposals for the redesigning project of Nguyen Cong Tru KTT, a design focused on vitalizing modern apartments’ communities.

Keywords: collective house community, collective house public space, community-focused, redesigning Nguyen Cong Tru KTT, sociological investigation

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Authors: Abegunde Linda, Adedeji Oluwatola

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It has become increasingly evident that large developments influence the climate within the immediate region and there are concerns that rising temperatures over developed areas could have negative impact and increase living discomfort within city boundaries. Temperature trends in Ibadan city have received minor attention, yet the area has experienced heavy urban expansion between 1972 and 2014. This research aims at examining the impact of landuse change on temperature knowing that the built environment absorbs and stores solar energy, the temperature in cities can be several degrees higher than in adjacent rural areas. This is known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The Landsat imagery were used to examine the landuse change for a time period of 42years (1972-2014) and Land surface temperature (LST) was obtained by converting the thermal band to a surface temperature map and zonal statistic analyses was further used to examine the relationship between landuse and temperature emission. The results showed that the settlement area increased by 200km2 while the area covered by vegetation also reduced to about 42.6% during the study period. The spatial and temporal trends of temperature are related to the gradual change in urban landcover and the settlement area has the highest emission of land surface temperature. This research provides useful insight into the temporal behavior of the Ibadan city.

Keywords: landuse, LST, remote sensing, UHI

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Authors: Peter Carter

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Comprehensive climate change indicators and trends inform the state of the climate (system) with respect to present and future climate change scenarios and the urgency of mitigation and adaptation. With data records now going back for many decades, indicator trends can complement model projections. They are provided as datasets by several climate monitoring centers, reviewed by state of the climate reports, and documented by the IPCC assessments. Up-to-date indicators are provided here. Rates of change are instructive, as are extremes. The indicators include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (natural and synthetic), cumulative CO2 emissions, atmospheric GHG concentrations (including CO2 equivalent), stratospheric ozone, surface ozone, radiative forcing, global average temperature increase, land temperature increase, zonal temperature increases, carbon sinks, soil moisture, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, ocean acidification, ocean oxygen, glacier mass, Arctic temperature, Arctic sea ice (extent and volume), northern hemisphere snow cover, permafrost indices, Arctic GHG emissions, ice sheet mass, sea level rise, and stratospheric and surface ozone. Global warming is not the most reliable single metric for the climate state. Radiative forcing, atmospheric CO2 equivalent, and ocean heat content are more reliable. Global warming does not provide future commitment, whereas atmospheric CO2 equivalent does. Cumulative carbon is used for estimating carbon budgets. The forcing of aerosols is briefly addressed. Indicator interactions are included. In particular, indicators can provide insight into several crucial global warming amplifying feedback loops, which are explained. All indicators are increasing (adversely), most as fast as ever and some faster. One particularly pressing indicator is rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane. In this respect, methane emissions and sources are covered in more detail. In their application, indicators used in assessing safe planetary boundaries are included. Indicators are considered with respect to recent published papers on possible catastrophic climate change and climate system tipping thresholds. They are climate-change-policy relevant. In particular, relevant policies include the 2015 Paris Agreement on “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” and the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate change, which has “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

Keywords: climate change, climate change indicators, climate change trends, climate system change interactions

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Authors: Laura M. F. Bertens

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There is a long tradition of visually representing the art historical canon, in schematic overviews and diagrams. This is indicative of the desire for scientific, ‘objective’ knowledge of the kind (seemingly) produced in the natural sciences. These diagrams will, however, always retain an element of subjectivity and the modelling methods colour our perception of the represented information. In recent decades visualisations of art historical data, such as hand-drawn diagrams in textbooks, have been extended to include digital, computational tools. These tools significantly increase modelling strength and functionality. As such, they might be used to deconstruct and amend the very problem caused by traditional visualisations of the canon. In this paper, the use of digital tools for modelling the art historical canon is studied, in order to draw attention to the artificial nature of the static models that art historians are presented with in textbooks and lectures, as well as to explore the potential of digital, dynamic tools in creating new models. To study the way diagrams of the canon mediate the represented information, two modelling methods have been used on two case studies of existing diagrams. The tree diagram Stammbaum der neudeutschen Kunst (1823) by Ferdinand Olivier has been translated to a social network using the program Visone, and the famous flow chart Cubism and Abstract Art (1936) by Alfred Barr has been translated to an ontological model using Protégé Ontology Editor. The implications of the modelling decisions have been analysed in an art historical context. The aim of this project has been twofold. On the one hand the translation process makes explicit the design choices in the original diagrams, which reflect hidden assumptions about the Western canon. Ways of organizing data (for instance ordering art according to artist) have come to feel natural and neutral and implicit biases and the historically uneven distribution of power have resulted in underrepresentation of groups of artists. Over the last decades, scholars from fields such as Feminist Studies, Postcolonial Studies and Gender Studies have considered this problem and tried to remedy it. The translation presented here adds to this deconstruction by defamiliarizing the traditional models and analysing the process of reconstructing new models, step by step, taking into account theoretical critiques of the canon, such as the feminist perspective discussed by Griselda Pollock, amongst others. On the other hand, the project has served as a pilot study for the use of digital modelling tools in creating dynamic visualisations of the canon for education and museum purposes. Dynamic computer models introduce functionalities that allow new ways of ordering and visualising the artworks in the canon. As such, they could form a powerful tool in the training of new art historians, introducing a broader and more diverse view on the traditional canon. Although modelling will always imply a simplification and therefore a distortion of reality, new modelling techniques can help us get a better sense of the limitations of earlier models and can provide new perspectives on already established knowledge.

Keywords: canon, ontological modelling, Protege Ontology Editor, social network modelling, Visone

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Authors: Oluwole Enoch Adeniran

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Peace studies and conflict resolution; though a relatively new discipline had attracted scholars from far and near. It had enhanced a purposeful training of mind of young adult among other categories of learners. It provides a platform through which university under-graduates and post-graduates students are exposed to the rudiments of peace building, peacemaking and peace keeping towards a successful conflict resolution. The paper historicizes peace education as most desirable in any human society that desired development. It aims at educating children and young adults in the dynamics of peaceful conflicts resolution at home, in school and communities (states) throughout the world for a purposeful technological development. It also aims at exposing students to the nature of conflict and how to manage and resolve conflicts in order to promote national unity for meaningful development. The paper argues that, for a state to record any meaningful socio-economic, political and technological development; a conducive and peaceful atmosphere must be put in place. This theoretical paper emerged in the context of historical specificities of conflict resolution from a general conceptual framework. It then concludes with suggestions on the modes of conflict prevention, conflict management and conflict resolution for an ideal technologically advanced society.

Keywords: history, education, peace, unity, technology and development

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Authors: Fabiana Franceschi, Martha Cobo, Manuel Figueredo

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Bogotá, the capital of Colombia, is its largest city and one of the most polluted in Latin America due to the fast economic growth over the last ten years. Bogotá has been affected by high pollution events which led to the high concentration of PM10 and NO2, exceeding the local 24-hour legal limits (100 and 150 g/m3 each). The most important pollutants in the city are PM10 and PM2.5 (which are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular problems) and it is known that their concentrations in the atmosphere depend on the local meteorological factors. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a relationship between the meteorological variables and the concentrations of the atmospheric pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, SO2, NO2 and O3. This study aims to determine the interrelations between meteorological variables and air pollutants in Bogotá, using data mining techniques. Data from 13 monitoring stations were collected from the Bogotá Air Quality Monitoring Network within the period 2010-2015. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm was applied to obtain primary relations between all the parameters, and afterwards, the K-means clustering technique was implemented to corroborate those relations found previously and to find patterns in the data. PCA was also used on a per shift basis (morning, afternoon, night and early morning) to validate possible variation of the previous trends and a per year basis to verify that the identified trends have remained throughout the study time. Results demonstrated that wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and NO2 are the most influencing factors on PM10 concentrations. Furthermore, it was confirmed that high humidity episodes increased PM2,5 levels. It was also found that there are direct proportional relationships between O3 levels and wind speed and radiation, while there is an inverse relationship between O3 levels and humidity. Concentrations of SO2 increases with the presence of PM10 and decreases with the wind speed and wind direction. They proved as well that there is a decreasing trend of pollutant concentrations over the last five years. Also, in rainy periods (March-June and September-December) some trends regarding precipitations were stronger. Results obtained with K-means demonstrated that it was possible to find patterns on the data, and they also showed similar conditions and data distribution among Carvajal, Tunal and Puente Aranda stations, and also between Parque Simon Bolivar and las Ferias. It was verified that the aforementioned trends prevailed during the study period by applying the same technique per year. It was concluded that PCA algorithm is useful to establish preliminary relationships among variables, and K-means clustering to find patterns in the data and understanding its distribution. The discovery of patterns in the data allows using these clusters as an input to an Artificial Neural Network prediction model.

Keywords: air pollution, air quality modelling, data mining, particulate matter

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Authors: Onur Kaya

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Languages date back thousands of years of formation and journeys through the world. In these journeys and formations, they travel, reach and mixes to the very far corners and languages of the world. In this perspective, in order to analyze such language examples, the analysis of the formation, affection, travel, thus immigration of Anatolian Turkish and Inuit of Greenland is significant. Firstly, it is significant to analyze the historical connections between the Turks in Anatolia and the Inuit people in Greenland. So, the intersection of Turks and Inuit's immigrations in history and all these connections to Greenland and Anatolia will be revealed. Then, it is necessary to analyze the linguistic qualities of Turkish and Inuit languages. For this aim, the linguistic theories and linguistic features of the two languages and their common points will be emphasized. After all these explanations and analyses, the effects of the two languages two each other, common words, and the existence of all these in written and literary works of the two languages will be analyzed and exemplified. Finally, the lecture will focus on two different geographies as, Anatolia and Greenland. The two societies’ historical commonness will be revealed. The immigration and the intersecting locations of the two societies will be analyzed. By means of all this information and within the light of the linguistic theories, the commonness of the two languages, the affections caused by each other, the result of these affections, and their examples in written works will be revealed.

Keywords: greenland, anatolia, turk, inuit, immigration

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Authors: P. Castillo Muñoz, A. Lara Ramírez

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Absent Theaters is a project that virtually reconstructs three theaters that existed in the twentieth century, demolished in the city of Medellin, Colombia: Circo España, Bolívar, and Junín. Virtual reconstruction is used as an excuse to talk with those who lived in their childhood and youth cultural spaces that formed a whole generation. Around 100 people who witnessed these theaters were interviewed. The means used to perform the oral history work was the virtual reconstruction of the interior of the theaters that were presented to the interviewees through the Virtual Reality glasses. The voices of people between 60 and 103 years old were used to generate a transmission of knowledge to the new generations about the importance of theaters as essential places for the city, as spaces generating social relations and knowledge of other cultures. Oral stories about events, the historical and social context of the city, were mixed with archive images and animations of the architectural transformations of these places. Oral stories about events, the historical and social context of the city, were mixed with archive images and animations of the architectural transformations of these places, with the purpose of compiling a collective discourse around cultural activities, heritage, and memory of Medellin.

Keywords: culture, heritage, oral history, theaters, virtual reality

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Authors: James Beringer

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Switzerland’s ability to forge a strong national identity across linguistic barriers has long been of interest to nationalism scholars. This begs the question of how this has been achieved, given that traditional explanations of luck or exceptionalism appear highly reductionist. This paper evaluates the theory that successful Swiss management of linguistic diversity stems from the strong integration of multilingualism into Swiss national identity. Using archival analysis of Swiss government records, historical accounts of prominent Swiss citizens, as well as secondary literature concerning the fundamental aspects of Swiss national identity, this paper charts the historical evolution of Swiss national identity. It explains how multilingualism was deliberately and successfully integrated into Swiss national identity as a response to political fragmentation along linguistic lines during the First World War. Its primary conclusions are the following. Firstly, the earliest foundations of Swiss national identity were purposefully removed from any association with a single national language. This produced symbols, myths, and values -such as a strong commitment to communalism, the imagery of the Swiss natural landscape, and the use of Latin expressions, which can be adopted across Swiss linguistic groups. Secondly, the First World War triggered a turning point in the evolution of Swiss national identity. The fundamental building blocks proved insufficient in preventing political fractures amongst linguistic lines, as each Swiss linguistic group gravitated towards its linguistic neighbours within Europe. To avoid a repeat of such fragmentation, a deliberate effort was made to fully integrate multilingualism as a fundamental aspect of Swiss national identity. Existing natural symbols, such as the St Gotthard Mountains, were recontextualized in order to become associated with multilingualism. The education system was similarly reformed to reflect the unique multilingual nature of the Swiss nation. The successful result of this process can be readily observed in polls and surveys, with large segments of the Swiss population highlighting multilingualism as a uniquely Swiss characteristic, indicating the symbiotic connection between multilingualism and the Swiss nation.

Keywords: language's role in identity formation, multilingualism in nationalism, national identity formation, Swiss national identity history

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Authors: Kivilcim Ersoy, Cansu Yazganarikan

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In recent years, composite materials are more frequently utilized not only in aviation but also in automotive industry due to its high strength to weight ratio, fatigue and corrosion resistances as well as better performances in specific environments. The market demand also favors lightweight design for wheeled and tracked armored vehicles due to the increased demand for land and amphibious mobility features. This study represents the current application areas and trends in automotive, bus and armored land vehicles industries. In addition, potential utilization areas of fiber composite and hybrid material concepts are being addressed. This work starts with a survey of current applications and patent trends of composite materials in automotive and land vehicle industries. An intensive investigation is conducted to determine the potential of these materials for application in land vehicle industry, where small series production dominates and challenging requirements are concerned. In the end, potential utilization areas for combat land vehicle systems are offered. By implementing these light weight solutions with alternative materials and design concepts, it is possible to achieve drastic weight reduction, which will enable both land and amphibious mobility without unyielding stiffness and survivability capabilities.

Keywords: land vehicle, composite, light-weight design, armored vehicle

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Sérgio J. Teixeira, João J. Ferreira

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Tourism frequently gets identified as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for expansion on a global scale and hence conveying the importance of attempting to better understand the regional factors of competitiveness prevailing in this sector. This study’s objective essentially strives to provide a mapping of the scientific publications and the intellectual knowledge therein contained while conveying past research trends and identifying potential future lines of research in the fields of regional competitiveness and tourism innovation. This correspondingly deploys a systematic review of the literature in keeping with the bibliometric approach based upon VOSviewer software, with a particular focus on drafting maps for visualising the underlying intellectual structure. This type of analysis encapsulates the number of articles published and their annual number of citations for the period between 1900 and 2016 as registered by the Web of Science database. The results demonstrate how the intellectual structure on regional competitiveness divides essentially into three major categories: regional competitiveness, tourism innovation, and tourism clusters. Thus, the main contribution of this study arises out of identifying the main research trends in this field and the respective shortcomings and specific needs for future scientific research in the field of regional competitiveness and innovation in tourism.

Keywords: regional competitiveness, tourism cluster, bibliometric studies, tourism innovation, systematic review

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Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

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Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

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Authors: Joo-Heon Lee, Ho-Won Jang, Hyung-Won Cho, Tae-Woong Kim

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Drought is a recurrent climatic feature that occurs in virtually every climatic zone around the world. Korea experiences the drought almost every year at the regional scale mainly during in the winter and spring seasons. Moreover, extremely severe droughts at a national scale also occurred at a frequency of six to seven years. Various drought indices had developed as tools to quantitatively monitor different types of droughts and are utilized in the field of drought analysis. Since drought is closely related with climatological and topographic characteristics of the drought prone areas, the basins where droughts are frequently occurred need separate drought preparedness and contingency plans. In this study, an analysis using statistical methods was carried out for the historical droughts occurred in the five major river basins in Korea so that drought characteristics can be quantitatively investigated. It was also aimed to provide information with which differentiated and customized drought preparedness plans can be established based on the basin level analysis results. Conventional methods which quantifies drought execute an evaluation by applying a various drought indices. However, the evaluation results for same drought event are different according to different analysis technique. Especially, evaluation of drought event differs depend on how we view the severity or duration of drought in the evaluation process. Therefore, it was intended to draw a drought history for the most severely affected five major river basins of Korea by investigating a magnitude of drought that can simultaneously consider severity, duration, and the damaged areas by applying drought run theory with the use of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) that can efficiently quantifies meteorological drought. Further, quantitative analysis for the historical extreme drought at various viewpoints such as average severity, duration, and magnitude of drought was attempted. At the same time, it was intended to quantitatively analyze the historical drought events by estimating the return period by derived SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curve for the five major river basins through parametric regional drought frequency analysis. Analysis results showed that the extremely severe drought years were in the years of 1962, 1988, 1994, and 2014 in the Han River basin. While, the extreme droughts were occurred in 1982 and 1988 in the Nakdong river basin, 1994 in the Geumg basin, 1988 and 1994 in Youngsan river basin, 1988, 1994, 1995, and 2000 in the Seomjin river basin. While, the extremely severe drought years at national level in the Korean Peninsula were occurred in 1988 and 1994. The most damaged drought were in 1981~1982 and 1994~1995 which lasted for longer than two years. The return period of the most severe drought at each river basin was turned out to be at a frequency of 50~100 years.

Keywords: drought magnitude, regional frequency analysis, SPI, SDF(severity-duration-frequency) curve

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