Search results for: ecological risk index

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ghammam Rim, Ezzi Olfa, Ben Cheikh Asma, Mahjoub Mohamed, Helali Radhia, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: Central venous catheter associated infections (CVC-AI) are among the serious hospital-acquired infections. The aims of this study are to determine the incidence of CVC-AI, and their risk factors among patients followed in a Tunisian medical intensive care unit (ICU). Materials / Methods: A prospective cohort study conducted between September 15th, 2015 and November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU including all patients admitted for more than 48h. CVC-AI were defined according to CDC of ATLANTA criteria. The enrollment was based on clinical and laboratory diagnosis of CVC-AI. For all subjects, age, sex, underlying diseases, SAPS II score, ICU length of stay, exposure to CVC (number of CVC placed, site of insertion and duration catheterization) were recorded. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Among 192 eligible patients, 144 patients (75%) had a central venous catheter. Twenty-eight patients (19.4%) had developed CVC-AI with density rate incidence 20.02/1000 CVC-days. Among these infections, 60.7% (n=17) were systemic CVC-AI (with negative blood culture), and 35.7% (n=10) were bloodstream CVC-AI. The mean SAPS II of patients with CVC-AI was 32.76 14.48; their mean Charlson index was 1.77 1.55, their mean duration of catheterization was 15.46 10.81 days and the mean duration of one central line was 5.8+/-3.72 days. Gram-negative bacteria was determined in 53.5 % of CVC-AI (n= 15) dominated by multi-drug resistant Acinetobacter baumani (n=7). Staphylococci were isolated in 3 CVC-AI. Fourteen (50%) patients with CVC-AI died. Univariate analysis identified men (p=0.034), the referral from another hospital department (p=0.03), tobacco (p=0.006), duration of sedation (p=0.003) and the duration of catheterization (p=0), as possible risk factors of CVC-AI. Multivariate analysis showed that independent factors of CVC-AI were, male sex; OR= 5.73, IC 95% [2; 16.46], p=0.001, Ramsay score; OR= 1.57, IC 95% [1.036; 2.38], p=0.033, and duration of catheterization; OR=1.093, IC 95% [1.035; 1.15], p=0.001. Conclusion: In a monocenter cohort, CVC-AI had a high density and is associated with poor outcome. Identifying the risk factors is necessary to find solutions for this major health problem.

Keywords: central venous catheter associated infection, intensive care unit, prospective cohort studies, risk factors

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

Abstract:

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure. Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT (55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT (5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus 30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant (p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the roles of genetic associations.

Keywords: ZBTB17 gene, rs10927875 polymorphism, dilated cardiomyopathy, cardiovascular disorder

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

Abstract:

It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: cross ABC method, customs supply chain, risk, risk management

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Authors: Musarrat Jabeen Khan, Uzma Azam, Kainat Umar, Jazba Amber Satti, Aiman Shehzadi, Nimo Omer

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This study aimed to examine the comparison between substance abusers and non-abusers on anxiety, peer pressure, and risk-taking behavior among young adults. The sample consisted of 138 individuals including 64 female and 71 males, age range from 17-35 years, drawn from non-clinical population through convenient sampling. Questionnaire technique was used for the information assortment and the scales were susceptibility to peer pressure (Dieman, Pamella, Shope & Butchart, 1987), Zung self-rating anxiety scale (Zung, 1971), and risk-taking questionnaire (Gullone, Moore, Moss & Boyd, 2000) having alpha reliability of .54, .88, and .80 respectively. Results showed that anxiety negatively correlates with the risk-taking behavior. High level of anxiety stops an individual to involve himself in risk taking activities. Peer pressure have positive correlation with risk-taking behavior. Females are more susceptible to peer pressure irrespective of being abusers or non-abusers as compared to male abusers and non-abusers. Substance abusers have less anxiety as compared to non-abusers but are more susceptible to peer pressure and risk-taking behaviors.

Keywords: substance, substance abuse, anxiety, peer pressure, risk-taking behavior

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Authors: Mike Tsionas

Abstract:

The paper develops new indices of financial stability based on an explicit model of expected utility maximization by financial institutions subject to the classical technology restrictions of neoclassical production theory. The model can be estimated using standard econometric techniques, like GMM for dynamic panel data and latent factor analysis for the estimation of co-variance matrices. An explicit functional form for the utility function is not needed and we show how measures of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion) can be derived and estimated from the model. The model is estimated using data for Eurozone countries and we focus particularly on (i) the use of the modeling approach as an “early warning mechanism”, (ii) the bank- and country-specific estimates of risk aversion and prudence (downside risk aversion), and (iii) the derivation of a generalized measure of risk that relies on loan-price uncertainty.

Keywords: financial stability, banking, expected utility maximization, sub-prime crisis, financial crisis, eurozone, PIIGS

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Authors: Siddhartha Khare, Suyash Khare

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Phenology, a crucial discipline in ecology, offers insights into the seasonal dynamics of organisms within natural ecosystems and the underlying environmental triggers. Leveraging the potent capabilities of digital repeat photography, PhenoCams capture invaluable data on the phenology of crops, plants, and trees. These cameras yield digital imagery in Red Green Blue (RGB) color channels, and some advanced systems even incorporate Near Infrared (NIR) bands. This study presents compelling case studies employing PhenoCam technology to unravel the phenology of black spruce trees. Through the analysis of RGB color channels, a range of essential color metrics including red chromatic coordinate (RCC), green chromatic coordinate (GCC), blue chromatic coordinate (BCC), vegetation contrast index (VCI), and excess green index (ExGI) are derived. These metrics illuminate variations in canopy color across seasons, shedding light on bud and leaf development. This, in turn, facilitates a deeper understanding of phenological events and aids in delineating the growth periods of trees and plants. The initial phase of this study addresses critical questions surrounding the fidelity of continuous canopy greenness records in representing bud developmental phases. Additionally, it discerns which color-based index most accurately tracks the seasonal variations in tree phenology within evergreen forest ecosystems. The subsequent section of this study delves into the transition dates of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) phenology. This is achieved through a fortnightly comparative analysis of the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI). By employing PhenoCam technology and leveraging advanced color metrics, this study significantly advances our comprehension of black spruce tree phenology, offering valuable insights for ecological research and management.

Keywords: phenology, remote sensing, phenocam, color metrics, NDVI, GCC

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk

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Authors: Fathul Mubin, Budi E. Nurcahya

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In 2006, a large earthquake ever occurred in the province of Yogyakarta, which caused considerable damage. This is the basis need to investigate the seismic vulnerability index in around of the earthquake zone. This research is called microzonation of earthquake hazard. This research has been conducted at the site and surrounding of Prambanan Temple, includes homes and civil buildings. The reason this research needs to be done because in the event of an earthquake in 2006, there was damage to the temples at Prambanan temple complex and its surroundings. In this research, data collection carried out for 60 minutes using three component seismograph measurements at 165 points with spacing of 1000 meters. The data recorded in time function were analyzed using the spectral ratio method, known as the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR). Results from this analysis are dominant frequency (Fg) and maximum amplification factor (Ag) are used to obtain seismic vulnerability index. The results of research showed the dominant frequency range from 0.5 to 30 Hz and the amplification is in interval from 0.5 to 9. Interval value for seismic vulnerability index is 0.1 to 50. Based on distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index and impact of buildings damage seemed for suitability. For further research, it needs to survey to the east (klaten) and south (Bantul, DIY) to determine a full distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index.

Keywords: amplification factor, dominant frequency, microzonation analysis, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Munn-Sann Lye, Jamshid Yazdani Charati, Mehran Zarghami

Abstract:

Both obesity and intimate partner violence (IPV) are growing health threats. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and risk factors of both IPV and obesity and their association. In this cross-sectional study, 530 women aged 16-65 years attending Mazandaran primary health centers were recruited through the stratified random sampling method (2019-2020). Data were collected using the modified World Health Organization Domestic Violence questionnaire, Perceived Stress Scale, and socio-demographic, obstetric, and anthropometric questionnaires. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the chi-square test, and multiple logistic regression. The prevalence of overweight, obesity and psychological, physical, and sexual IPV were 47.6%, 26.7%, 70.4%, 17.9%, and 6.4%, respectively. Increasing women’s educational level and exposure to violence during their lifespan increased the odds of any type of IPV while living in a nuclear family reduced it. In groups of women who were subjected to any type of IPV and only psychological IPV, experiencing violence during the lifespan was significant in predicting obesity. The alarming prevalence of IPV and obesity-overweight in this study points to the need for collaborative socio-political and health intervention. The link between experiencing violence during lifespan and obesity in some subgroups of women highlights the detrimental consequences of chronic violence and the urgent need for effective preventive programs.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, body mass index, obesity, risk factor, women

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Authors: Tebikew Yeneabat, Tefera Belachew, Muluneh Haile

Abstract:

Background: Exclusive breast-feeding (EBF) is the practice of feeding only breast milk (including expressed breast milk) during the first six months and no other liquids and solid foods except medications. The time to cessation of exclusive breast-feeding, however, is different in different countries depending on different factors. Studies showed the risk of diarrhea morbidity and mortality is higher among none exclusive breast-feeding infants, common during starting other foods. However, there is no study that evaluated the time to cessation of exclusive breast-feeding in the study area. The aim of this study was to show time to cessation of EBF and its predictors among mothers of index infants less than twelve months old. Methods: We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study from February 13 to March 3, 2012 using both quantitative and qualitative methods. This study included a total of 592 mothers of index infant using multi-stage sampling method. Data were collected by using interviewer administered structured questionnaire. Bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. Results: Cessation of exclusive breast-feeding occurred in 392 (69.63%) cases. Among these, 224 (57.1%) happened before six months, while 145 (37.0%) and 23 (5.9%) occurred at six months and after six months of age of the index infant respectively. The median time for infants to stay on exclusive breast-feeding was 6.36 months in rural and 5.13 months in urban, and this difference was statistically significant on a Log rank (Cox-mantel) test. Maternal and paternal occupation, place of residence, postnatal counseling on exclusive breast-feeding, mode of delivery, and birth order of the index infant were significant predictors of cessation of exclusive breast-feeding. Conclusion: Providing postnatal care counseling on EBF, routine follow-up and support of those mothers having infants stressing for working mothers can bring about implementation of national strategy on infant and young child feeding.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, cessation, median duration, Ankesha Guagusa Woreda

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Authors: S. Kumchoo

Abstract:

The result of suggestion for low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) in obese women to the effect on body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) in this experiment. Quisi experimental research was used for this study and it is a One-group pretest-posttest designs measurement method. The aim of this study was body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) reduction by using low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) in obese women, the result found that in 15 of obese women that contained their body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30, after they obtained low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) within 2 weeks. The data were collected before and after of testing the results showed that the average of body weight decrease 3.4 kilogram, waist circumference value decrease 6.1 centimeter and the body mass index (BMI) decrease 1.3 kg.m² from their previous body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) before experiment started. After this study, the volunteers got healthy and they can choose or select some food for themselves. For this study, the research can be improved for data development for forward study in the future.

Keywords: body weight, waist circumference, low energy diet, BMI

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Mimi Hafizah Abdullah, Hanani Farhah Harun, Nik Ruzni Nik Idris

Abstract:

With the implied volatility as an important factor in financial decision-making, in particular in option pricing valuation, and also the given fact that the pricing biases of Leland option pricing models and the implied volatility structure for the options are related, this study considers examining the implied adjusted volatility smile patterns and term structures in the S&P/ASX 200 index options using the different Leland option pricing models. The examination of the implied adjusted volatility smiles and term structures in the Australian index options market covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007. The implied adjusted volatility was found to escalate approximately triple the rate prior the crisis.

Keywords: implied adjusted volatility, financial crisis, Leland option pricing models, Australian index options

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining

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Authors: Amichai Ben ari, Daniella Margalit

Abstract:

Medical procedures, such as surgery, may have traumatic significance for some children. This study examines the relationship between maltreatment in children and the development Pediatric Medical Traumatic Stress (PMTS). To this end, differences in the level of distress of children after surgery were examined between two groups: children who were maltreated ("children at risk") and children from the control group ("children who are not at risk"). The study involved 230 parents of children who came to the hospital to undergo surgery. Parents filled out demographic questionnaires to measure socioeconomic variables and psychological questionnaires to measure the distress of the child and parent before surgery. After 6 months from the time of surgery, the parents again filled in the questionnaire measuring the child's distress. The results of the study showed that the level of distress experienced by children at risk after surgery was significantly higher relative to children who are not at risk. It was also found that the level of distress experienced by parents of children at risk in relation to their child’s surgery is significantly higher compared to parents of children who are not at risk. Finally, it was found that the variables: (1) pre-morbid psychological functioning of the child. (2) Parental and family functioning in daily life. (3) Exposure of the child to traumatic events. (4) Support factors for the family. Are variables that predict the development of PMTS in children after surgery, but only for children at risk and not for children who are not at risk. The significance of the findings in relation to the need to identify at-risk populations in the hospitals and the policies derived from them were discussed, and several directions were raised for further research.

Keywords: children at risk, pediatric medical traumatic stress (PMTS), PTSD, medical procedures

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Hromada Martin

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Risk analysis is considered as a fundamental aspect relevant for ensuring the level of critical infrastructure protection, where the critical infrastructure is seen as system, asset or its part which is important for maintaining the vital societal functions. Article actually discusses and analyzes the potential application of selected tools of information support for the implementation and within the framework of risk analysis and critical infrastructure protection. Use of the information in relation to their risk analysis can be viewed as a form of simplifying the analytical process. It is clear that these instruments (information support) for these purposes are countless, so they were selected representatives who have already been applied in the selected area of critical infrastructure, or they can be used. All presented fact were the basis for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation methodology development.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, protection, resilience, risk analysis

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Authors: Gabriela-Andreea Despescu, Mădălina-Elena Mavrodin, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Florin Adrian Grădinaru

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The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the enhancement of a hydroelectric plant protection by coordinating protection measures and existing security and introducing new measures under a risk management process. Also, the plan identifies key critical elements of a hydroelectric plant, from its level vulnerabilities and threats it is subjected to in order to achieve the necessary protection measures to reduce the level of risk.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, risk analysis, critical infrastructure protection, vulnerability, risk management, turbine, impact analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 547

Authors: Markus Stralla

Abstract:

This study employs a GMM framework to examine the impact of potential regulatory intervention regarding the occupations of supervisory board members in cooperative banking. To achieve insights, the study proceeds in two different ways. First, it investigates the changes in board structure prior and following to the German Act to Strengthen Financial Market and Insurance Supervision (FinVAG). Second, the study estimates the influence of Ph.D.Share, professional concentration and supervisory power on bank-risk changes in consideration of the implementation of FinVAG. Therefore, the study is based on a sample of 246 German cooperative banks from 2006-2011 while applying four different measures of bank risk, namely credit-, equity-, liquidity-risk, and Z-Score, with the former three also being addressed in FinVAG. Results indicate that the implementation of FinVAG results in (most likely unintentional) structural changes, especially at the expense of farmers, and affects all risk measures and relations between risk measures and supervisory board characteristics in a risk-reducing and therefore intended way. To disentangle the complex relationship between board characteristics and risk measures, the study utilizes two-step system GMM estimator to account for unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity in order to reduce endogeneity problems. The findings may be especially relevant for stakeholders, regulators, supervisors and managers.

Keywords: bank governance, bank risk-taking, board of directors, regulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: S. Kumchoo

Abstract:

The result of suggestion for low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) in obese women to the effect on body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) in this experiment. Quisi experimental research was used for this study and it is a One-group pretest-posttest designs measurement method. The aim of this study was body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) reduction by using low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) in obese women, the result found that in 15 of obese women that contained their body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30, after they obtained low energy diet (1,000-1,200 kcal) within 2 weeks. The data were collected before and after of testing the results showed that the average of body weight decrease 3.4 kilogram, waist circumference value decrease 6.1 centimeter and the body mass index (BMI) decrease 1.3 kg.m2 from their previous body weight, waist circumference and body mass index (BMI) before experiment started. After this study, the volunteers got healthy and they can choose or select some food for themselves. For this study, the research can be improved for data development for forward study in the future.

Keywords: body weight, waist circumference, BMI, low energy diet

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Sisi Xia, Dezhuan Tao

Abstract:

Urban Double Reform is an effective means to improve the quality of ecological space, based on improving the living environment and urban functions and promoting the organic integration of the city and nature. This paper takes the design of Qinyang Wetland Park in Jiaozuo, Henan Province, as an example, attempting to closely link the ecological restoration of wetland with the urban culture and to extend the urban spirit of the ancient county of Qinyang while purifying the ecological water system. This design uses ecological technology to repair underwater forests and underwater turf, rapidly improving the quality of urban water without biological side effects. The ecological grass slope is used to create multiple bank forms, combining with a number of hydrophilic platforms to provide a good view of the public. Through the placement of ecological education bases, urban cultural exhibition halls, and other means, the cultural value of wetland parks will be enhanced, and the citizens will return to nature and experience the ecology and appreciate the charm of urban culture in the ecological space. Repair the ecosystem, sculpt the urban culture, let the public return to nature, experience the ecology, and experience the charm of urban culture in the ecological space.

Keywords: urban double reform, ecological space, improvement strategy, wetland park design

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Authors: Miang Hong Ngerng, Noor Diyana Jasme, May Jin Theong

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Volatile market environment is inevitable. Fund managers are struggling to choose the right strategy to survive and overcome uncertainties and adverse market movement. Therefore, finding certainty in the mist of uncertainty future is one of the key performance objectives for fund managers. Current available theoretical results are not practical due to strong reliance on the investment assumption made. This paper is to identify the component that can be forecasted in Ex-ante setting which is the realistic situation facing a fund manager in the actual execution of asset allocation in portfolio management. Partial lease square method was used to generate an index with 10 years accounting data from 191 companies listed in KLSE. The result shows that the index reflects the inner nature of the business and up to 30% of the stock return can be explained by the index.

Keywords: active portfolio management, asset allocation ex-ante investment, asset class, partial lease square

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

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Authors: Mara Balestrieri, Clara Pusceddu

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Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society, and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. How planners relate to this problem and which aspects should be monitored in order to prepare responsible and useful interventions?

Keywords: assessment, landscape, risk, planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Harini Chakkera

Abstract:

Background: Inpatient hyperglycemia is an established independent risk factor among several patient cohorts with hospital readmission. This has not been studied after kidney transplantation. Nearly one-third of patients who have undergone a kidney transplant reportedly experience 30-day readmission. Methods: Data on first-time solitary kidney transplantations were retrieved between September 2015 to December 2018. Information was linked to the electronic health record to determine a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and extract glucometeric and insulin therapy data. Univariate logistic regression analysis and the XGBoost algorithm were used to predict 30-day readmission. We report the average performance of the models on the testing set on five bootstrapped partitions of the data to ensure statistical significance. Results: The cohort included 1036 patients who received kidney transplantation, and 224 (22%) experienced 30-day readmission. The machine learning algorithm was able to predict 30-day readmission with an average AUC of 77.3% (95% CI 75.30-79.3%). We observed statistically significant differences in the presence of pretransplant diabetes, inpatient-hyperglycemia, inpatient-hypoglycemia, and minimum and maximum glucose values among those with higher 30-day readmission rates. The XGBoost model identified the index admission length of stay, presence of hyper- and hypoglycemia and recipient and donor BMI values as the most predictive risk factors of 30-day readmission. Additionally, significant variations in the therapeutic management of blood glucose by providers were observed. Conclusions: Suboptimal glucose metrics during hospitalization after kidney transplantation is associated with an increased risk for 30-day hospital readmission. Optimizing the hospital blood glucose management, a modifiable factor, after kidney transplantation may reduce the risk of 30-day readmission.

Keywords: kidney, transplant, diabetes, insulin

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Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

Abstract:

In women, cancer of the breast is one of the most common incident cancer and cause of death from cancer .we reviewed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer. In this study, a total of 25 articles regarding the subject matter of the article have been presented in which 640 patients were examined that 320 patients with breast cancer and 320 were controls. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulate the activities of growth steroids, obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer is confirmed. Our study and other studies show that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer can be prevented in the future.

Keywords: breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight

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Authors: V. M. B. K. T. Malwanage, S. Samita

Abstract:

Core stability is one of the major determinants that contribute to preventing injuries, enhance performance, and improve quality of life of the human. Endurance of the four major muscle groups of the central ‘core’ of the human body is identified as the most reliable determinant of core stability amongst the other numerous causes which contribute to readily make one’s core stability. This study aimed to develop a ‘Core Stability Index’ to confer a single value for an individual’s core stability based on the four endurance test scores. Since it is possible that at least some of the test scores are not independent, possibility of constructing a single index using the multivariate method exploratory factor analysis was investigated in the study. The study sample was consisted of 400 healthy young individuals with the mean age of 23.74 ± 1.51 years and mean BMI (Body Mass Index) of 21.1 ± 4.18. The correlation analysis revealed highly significant (P < 0.0001) correlations between test scores and thus construction an index using these highly inter related test scores using the technique factor analysis was justified. The mean values of all test scores were significantly different between males and females (P < 0.0001), and therefore two separate core stability indices were constructed for the two gender groups. Moreover, having eigen values 3.103 and 2.305 for males and females respectively, indicated one factor exists for all four test scores and thus a single factor based index was constructed. The 95% reference intervals constructed using the index scores were -1.64 to 2.00 and -1.56 to 2.29 for males and females respectively. These intervals can effectively be used to diagnose those who need improvement in core stability. The practitioners should find that with a single value measure, they could be more consistent among themselves.

Keywords: construction of indices, endurance test scores, muscle endurance, quality of life

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Authors: Basavaraj Kabade, K. T. Nagaraja, Swathi Ramanathan, A. Veeraragavan, P. S. Reashma

Abstract:

Deteriorating quality of the pedestrian environment and the increasing risk of pedestrian crashes are major concerns for most of the cities in India. The recent shift in the priority to motorized transport and the abating condition of existing pedestrian facilities can be considered as prime reasons for the increasing pedestrian related crashes in India. Bengaluru City – the IT capital hub of the nation is not much different from this. The increase in number of pedestrian crashes in Bengaluru reflects the same. To resolve this issue and to ensure safe, sustainable and pedestrian friendly sidewalks, Govt. of Karnataka, India has implemented newfangled pedestrian sidewalks popularized programme named Tender S.U.R.E. (Specifications for Urban Road Execution) projects. Tender SURE adopts unique urban street design guidelines where the pedestrians are given prime preference. The present study presents an assessment of the quality and performance of the pedestrian side walk and the walkability index of the newly built pedestrian friendly sidewalks. Various physical and environmental factors affecting pedestrian safety are identified and studied in detail. The pedestrian mobility is quantified through Pedestrian Level of Service (PLoS) and the pedestrian walking comfort is measured by calculating the Walkability Index (WI). It is observed that the new initiatives taken in reference to improving pedestrian safety have succeeded in Bengaluru by attaining a level of Service of ‘A’ and with a good WI score.

Keywords: pedestrian safety, pedestrian level of service (PLoS), Right of Way (RoW), Tender S.U.R.E (Specifications for Urban Road Execution), walkability index (WI), walkway facilities

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

Abstract:

Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based

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Authors: Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Muhammad Abdullah Malik, Muhammad Saqib, Faiz Ahmad Raza, Waseem Akram

Abstract:

Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, the vector of pathogens of one health significance, has gained currency over the last decade. The present study reports the prevalence of A. aegypti larvae in indoor and outdoor niches from the three districts of different agro-geo-climatic zones of Punjab, including Chakwal (north), Faisalabad (central), and Dera Ghazi Khan (south). Mosquito larvae were collected, preserved, and transferred for identification. The relevant data were collected on a predesigned questionnaire. Stegomyia indices, including House Index (HI), Breteau Index (BI), and Container Index (CI), were calculated. The association of different breeding containers with the prevalence of Ae. aegypti larvae were estimated through Chi-square analysis. The highest Stegomyia indices were calculated in Chakwal (HI = 46.61%, BI = 91.67%, and CI = 15.28%) as compared to Faisalabad (HI = 34.11%, BI = 68.75% and, CI = 13.04%) and DG Khan (HI = 28.39%, BI = 68.23% and, CI = 11.29%), respectively. Irrespective of the geographical area, earthen jars, water tanks, and tree holes were found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the abundance of Ae. aegypti larvae. However, tires and plastic bottles in Faisalabad and DG Khan while flower tubs and plastic buckets in Faisalabad and Chakwal were found to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the larval abundance. The results are a maiden attempt to correlate the magnitude of Ae. aegypti larvae in various microclimatic niches of Punjab, Pakistan, which might help in policy-making for preventive management of the menace.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, ecology, breeding habitats, Stegomyia indices, breeding containers

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