Search results for: ecological risk assessment

Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

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Authors: Hachaichi Mohamed Nour El-Islem, Baouni Tahar

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Environmental sustainability rather than a trans-disciplinary and a scientific issue, is the main problem that characterizes all modern cities nowadays. In developing countries, this concern is expressed in a plethora of critical urban ills: traffic congestion, air pollution, noise, urban decay, increase in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions which blemish cities’ landscape and might threaten citizens’ health and welfare. As in the same manner as developing world cities, the rapid growth of Algiers’ human population and increasing in city scale phenomena lead eventually to increase in daily trips, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. In addition, the lack of proper and sustainable planning of the city’s infrastructure is one of the most relevant issues from which Algiers suffers. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the carbon deficit of the City of Algiers, Algeria, using the Ecological Footprint Model (carbon footprint). In order to achieve this goal, the amount of CO₂ from fuel combustion has been calculated and aggregated into five sectors (agriculture, industry, residential, tertiary and transportation); as well, Algiers’ biocapacity (CO₂ uptake land) has been calculated to determine the ecological overshoot. This study shows that Algiers’ transport system is not sustainable and is generating more than 50% of Algiers total carbon footprint which cannot be sequestered by the local forest land. The aim of this research is to show that the Carbon Footprint Assessment might be a relevant indicator to design sustainable strategies/policies striving to reduce CO₂ by setting in motion the energy consumption in the transportation sector and reducing the use of fossil fuels as the main energy input.

Keywords: biocapacity, carbon footprint, ecological footprint assessment, energy consumption

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Authors: Hossein Hassani, Ali Rezaei

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In recent years, the study of soil contamination problems surrounding mines and smelting plants has attracted some serious attention of the environmental experts. These elements due to the non- chemical disintegration and nature are counted as environmental stable and durable contaminants. Variability of these contaminants in the soil and the time and financial limitation for the favorable environmental application, in order to reduce the risk of their irreparable negative consequences on environment, caused to apply the favorable grading of these contaminant for the further success of the risk management processes. In this study, we use the contaminants factor risk indices, average concentration, enrichment factor and geoaccumulation indices for evaluating the metal contaminant of including Pb, Ni, Se, Mo and Zn in the soil of Sarcheshmeh copper mine area. For this purpose, 120 surface soil samples up to the depth of 30 cm have been provided from the study area. And the metals have been analyzed using ICP-MS method. Comparison of the heavy and potentially toxic elements concentration in the soil samples with the world average value of the uncontaminated soil and shale average indicates that the value of Zn, Pb, Ni, Se and Mo is higher than the world average value and only the Ni element shows the lower value than the shale average. Expert opinions on the relative importance of each indicators were used to assign a final weighting of the metals and the heavy metals were ranked using the TOPSIS approach. This allows us to carry out efficient environmental proceedings, leading to the reduction of environmental ricks form the contaminants. According to the results, Ni, Pb, Mo, Zn, and Se have the highest rate of risk contamination in the soil samples of the study area.

Keywords: contamination coefficient, geoaccumulation factor, TOPSIS techniques, Sarcheshmeh copper complex

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Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics

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Authors: Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

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Climate change has become a major concern globally, particularly in rural communities that have to find rapid coping solutions. Several vulnerability assessment approaches have been developed in the last decades. This comes along with a higher risk for different methods to result in different conclusions, thereby making comparisons difficult and decision-making non-consistent across areas. The effect of methods and computational approaches on estimates of people’s vulnerability was assessed using data collected from the Gambia. Twenty-four indicators reflecting vulnerability components: (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were selected for this purpose. Data were collected through household surveys and key informant interviews. One hundred and fifteen respondents were surveyed across six communities and two administrative districts. Results were compared over three computational approaches: the maximum value transformation normalization, the z-score transformation normalization, and simple averaging. Regardless of the approaches used, communities that have high exposure to climate change and extreme events were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the vulnerability was strongly related to the socio-economic characteristics of farmers. The survey evidenced variability in vulnerability among communities and administrative districts. Comparing output across approaches, overall, people in the study area were found to be highly vulnerable using the simple average and maximum value transformation, whereas they were only moderately vulnerable using the z-score transformation approach. It is suggested that assessment approach-induced discrepancies be accounted for in international debates to harmonize/standardize assessment approaches to the end of making outputs comparable across regions. This will also likely increase the relevance of decision-making for adaptation policies.

Keywords: maximum value transformation, simple averaging, vulnerability assessment, West Africa, z-score transformation

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Authors: Abdool Qaiyum Mohabuth, Syed Munir Ahmad

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Assessment enables students to focus on their learning, assessment. It engages them to work hard and motivates them in devoting time to their studies. Student learning is directly influenced by the type of assessment involved in the programme. Summative Assessment aims at providing measurement of student understanding. In fact, it is argued that summative assessment is used for reporting and reviewing, besides providing an overall judgement of achievement. While summative assessment is a well defined process for learning that takes place in the classroom environment, its application within the practice environment is still being researched. This paper discusses findings from a mixed-method study for exploring the effectiveness of summative assessment in practice learning. A survey questionnaire was designed for exploring the perceptions of mentors and students about summative assessment in practice learning. The questionnaire was administered to the University of Mauritius students and mentors who supervised students for their Work-Based Learning (WBL) practice at the respective placement settings. Some students, having undertaken their WBL practice, were interviewed, for capturing their views and experiences about the application of summative assessment in practice learning. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted with three experienced mentors who have assessed students on practice learning. The findings reveal that though learning in the workplace is entirely different from learning at the University, most students had positive experiences about their summative assessments in practice learning. They felt comfortable and confident to be assessed by their mentors in their placement settings and wished that the effort and time that they devoted to their learning be recognised and valued. Mentors on their side confirmed that the summative assessment is valid and reliable, enabling them to better monitor and coach students to achieve the expected learning outcomes.

Keywords: practice learning, judgement, summative assessment, knowledge, skills, workplace

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Yingchen Yang

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In this study, a diagnostic assessment model for Mastery Engineering Learning was established based on a group of undergraduate students who studied in an engineering course. A diagnostic assessment model can examine both students' learning process and report achievement results. One very unique characteristic is that the diagnostic assessment model can recognize the errors and anything blocking students in their learning processes. The feedback is provided to help students to know how to solve the learning problems with alternative strategies and help the instructor to find alternative pedagogical strategies in the instructional designs. Dynamics is a core course in which is a common course being shared by several engineering programs. This course is a very challenging for engineering students to solve the problems. Thus knowledge acquisition and problem-solving skills are crucial for student success. Therefore, developing an effective and valid assessment model for student learning are of great importance. Diagnostic assessment is such a model which can provide effective feedback for both students and instructor in the mastery of engineering learning.

Keywords: diagnostic assessment, mastery learning, engineering, bayesian network model, learning processes

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Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: banks, default risk, Italian guarantee fund, mutual guarantee institutions

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Authors: Minghua Chen, Rui Wang

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This paper addresses the impact of foreign ownership on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Using bank-level panel data of more than 1,300 commercial banks in 32 emerging economies during 2000-2013, we find that foreign owned banks take on more risk than their domestic counterparts. We further examine several factors that may potentially contribute to foreign banks’ differentiated riskiness from four perspectives, namely, foreign banks’ informational disadvantages, agency problems, the contagious effect of parent banks’ financial conditions and the disparity between home and host markets. We find supportive evidence that these factors play a significant role in affecting foreign banks’ risk-taking.

Keywords: bank risk-taking, emerging economies, financial liberalization, foreign banks

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Authors: Siti Raihana Hamzah

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This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.

Keywords: global financial crisis, debt, risk-shifting, risk sharing, equity, sukuk, bonds

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Authors: Joyce Joas Kahembe

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The implementation of education assessment reforms in developing countries has been claimed to be problematic and difficult. The socio-economic teaching and learning environment has pointed to constraints in the education reform process. Nevertheless, there are existing assessment practices that if enhanced, can have potential to foster formative assessment practices in those contexts. The present study used the sociocultural perspective to explore teachers’ assessment practices and factors influencing them in Tanzania. Specifically, the sociocultural perspective helped to trace social, economic and political histories imparted to teachers’ assessment practices. The ethnographic oriented methods like interviews, observations and document reviews was used in this exploration. Teachers used assessment practices, such as questioning and answering, tests, assignments and examinations, for evaluating, monitoring and diagnosing students’ understanding, achievement and performance and standards and quality of instruction practices. The obtained assessment information functioned as feedback for improving students’ understanding, performance, and the standard and quality of teaching instruction and materials. For example, teachers acknowledged, praised, approved, disapproved, denied, graded, or marked students’ responses to give students feedback and aid learning. Moreover, teachers clarified and corrected or repeated students’ responses with worded/added words to improve students’ mastery of the subject content. Teachers’ assessment practices were influenced by the high demands of passing marks in the high stakes examinations and the contexts of the social economic teaching environment. There is a need to ally education assessment reforms with existing socio-economic teaching environments and society and institutional demands of assessment to make assessment reforms meaningful and sustainable. This presentation ought to contribute on ongoing strategies for contextualizing assessment practices for formative uses.

Keywords: assessment, feedback, practices, formative assessment

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Authors: Ian Phil Canlas, Mageswary Karpudewan, Joyce Magtolis, Rosario Canlas

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This study reported the development and validation of the Awareness to Disaster Risk Reduction Questionnaire for Teachers (ADRRQT). The questionnaire is a combination of Likert scale and open-ended questions that were grouped into two parts. The first part included questions relating to the general awareness on disaster risk reduction. Whereas, the second part comprised questions regarding the integration of disaster risk reduction in the teaching process. The entire process of developing and validating of the ADRRQT was described in this study. Statistical and qualitative findings revealed that the ADRRQT is significantly valid and reliable and has the potential of measuring awareness to disaster risk reduction of stakeholders in the field of teaching. Moreover, it also shows the potential to be adopted in other fields.

Keywords: awareness, development, disaster risk reduction, questionnaire, validation

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Authors: Ali Asgary, Haopeng Zhou, Ghassem Tofighi

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Use of virtual (VR), augmented reality (AR), and extended reality technologies for training and education has increased in recent years as more hardware and software tools have become available and accessible to larger groups of users. Similarly, the applications of these technologies in earthquake related training and education are on the rise. Several studies have reported promising results for the use of VR and AR for evacuation behaviour and training under earthquake situations. They simulate the impacts that earthquake has on buildings, buildings’ contents, and how building occupants and users can find safe spots or open paths to outside. Considering that considerable number of earthquake injuries and fatalities are linked to the behaviour, our goal is to use these technologies to reduce the impacts of building contents on people. Building on our artificial intelligence (AI) based indoor earthquake risk assessment application that enables users to use their mobile device to assess the risks associated with building contents during earthquakes, we develop a virtual reality application to demonstrate the behavior of different building contents during earthquakes, their associate moving, spreading, falling, and collapsing risks, and their risk mitigation methods. We integrate realistic seismic models, building contents behavior with and without risk mitigation measures in virtual reality environment. The application can be used for training of architects, interior design experts, and building users to enhance indoor safety of the buildings that can sustain earthquakes. This paper describes and demonstrates the application development background, structure, components, and usage.

Keywords: virtual reality, earthquake damage, building content, indoor risks, earthquake risk mitigation, interior design, unity game engine, oculus

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Authors: Farwa Rizvi, Joanne Williams, Humaira Maheen, Elizabeth Hoban

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There is an increase in risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in adolescent girls and young women aged 15 to 24 years in Cambodia, which negatively affects their reproductive health by increasing the risk of contracting sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies. Risky sexual behavior includes ‘having sex at an early age, having multiple sexual partners, having sex while under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and unprotected sexual behaviors’. A systematic review of quantitative research conducted in Cambodia was undertaken, using the theoretical framework of the Social Ecological Model to identify the personal, social and cultural factors associated with risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in young Cambodian women. PRISMA guidelines were used to search databases including Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete, Academic Search Complete, Global Health, and Social Work Abstracts. Additional searches were conducted in Science Direct, Google Scholar and in the grey literature sources. A risk-of-bias tool developed explicitly for the systematic review of cross-sectional studies was used. Summary item on the overall risk of study bias after the inter-rater response showed that the risk-of-bias was high in two studies, moderate in one study and low in one study. The search strategy included a combination of subject terms and free text terms. The medical subject headings (MeSH) terms included were; contracept* or ‘birth control’ or ‘family planning’ or pregnan* or ‘safe sex’ or ‘protected intercourse’ or ‘unprotected intercourse’ or ‘protected sex’ or ‘unprotected sex’ or ‘risky sexual behaviour*’ or ‘abort*’ or ‘planned parenthood’ or ‘unplanned pregnancy’ AND ( barrier* or obstacle* or challenge* or knowledge or attitude* or factor* or determinant* or choic* or uptake or discontinu* or acceptance or satisfaction or ‘needs assessment’ or ‘non-use’ or ‘unmet need’ or ‘decision making’ ) AND Cambodia*. Initially, 300 studies were identified by using key words and finally, four quantitative studies were selected based on the inclusion criteria. The four studies were published between 2010 and 2016. The study participants ranged in age from 10-24 years, single or married, with 3 to 10 completed years of education. The mean age at sexual debut was reported to be 18 years. Using the perspective of the Social Ecological Model, risky sexual behavior was associated with individual-level factors including young age at sexual debut, low education, unsafe sex under the influence of alcohol and substance abuse, multiple sexual partners or transactional sex. Family level factors included living away from parents, orphan status and low levels of family support. Peer and partner level factors included peer delinquency and lack of condom use. Low socioeconomic status at the society level was also associated with risky sexual behaviour. There is scant research on sexual and reproductive health of adolescent girls and young women in Cambodia. Individual, family and social factors were significantly associated with risky sexual behaviour. More research is required to inform potential preventive strategies and policies that address young women’s sexual and reproductive health.

Keywords: adolescents, high-risk sex, sexual activity, unplanned pregnancies

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Authors: Nguyen Quang Kim, Nguyen Thu Hien, Nguyen Thien Dung

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Flood disasters are increasing worldwide in both frequency and magnitude. Every year in Vietnam, flood causes great damage to people, property, and environmental degradation. The flood risk management policy in Vietnam is currently updated. The planning of flood mitigation strategies is reviewed to make a decision how to reach sustainable flood risk reduction. This paper discusses the basic approach where the measures of flood protection are chosen based on minimizing the present value of expected monetary expenses, total residual risk and costs of flood control measures. This approach will be proposed and demonstrated in a case study for flood risk management in Vinh Phuc province of Vietnam. Research also proposed the framework to find a solution of optimal protection level and optimal measures of the flood. It provides an explicit economic basis for flood risk management plans and interactive effects of options for flood damage reduction. The results of the case study are demonstrated and discussed which would provide the processing of actions helped decision makers to choose flood risk reduction investment options.

Keywords: drainage plan, flood planning, flood risk, residual risk, risk optimization

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: DoHyeung Kim, DaeHee Seo, ByungDoo Kim, ByungGil Lee

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As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: collision risk, pose, shape, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Benedicta Asante, Catherine Trask, Brenna Bath

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Background: Waste Collection Workers’ (WCWs) activities contribute greatly to the recycling sector and are an important component of the waste management industry. As the recycling sector evolves, there is the increase in reports of injuries, particularly for common and debilitating musculoskeletal disorders such as low back disorder (LBD). WCWs are likely exposed to diverse work-related hazards that could contribute to LBD. However, there is currently no summary of the state of knowledge on the prevalence and risk factors of LBD within this workforce. Method: A comprehensive search was conducted in Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health e-publications with search term categories ‘low back disorder’ and ‘waste collection workers’. Two reviewers screened articles at title, abstract, and full-text stages. Data were extracted on study design, sampling strategy, socio-demographics, geographical region, and exposure definition, the definition of LBD, response rate, statistical techniques, LBD prevalence and risk factors. The risk of bias was assessed with a standardized tool. Results: The search of three databases generated 79 studies. Thirty-two studies met the study inclusion criteria for both title and abstract; only thirteen full-text articles met the study criteria and underwent data extraction. The majority of articles reported a 12-month prevalence of LBD between 16-74%. Although none of the included studies quantified relationships between risk factors and LBD, the suggested risk factors for LBD among WCWs included: awkward posture; lifting; pulling; pushing; repetitive motions; work duration; and physical loads. Conclusion: LBD is a major occupational health issue among WCWs. In light of these risks and future growth in this industry, further research should focus on the investigation of risk factors, with more focus on ergonomic exposure assessment, and LBD prevention efforts.

Keywords: low back pain, scavenger, waste pickers, waste collection workers

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Authors: Ani Demetrashvili

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The purpose of this paper is to show how students trust online tests and determine validity and reliability in the development of online testing. The pandemic situation changed every field in the world, and it changed education as well. Educational institutions moved into the online space, which was the only decision they were able to make at that time. Online assessment through online proctoring was a totally new challenge for educational institutions, and they needed to deal with it successfully. Participants were chosen from the English language center. The validity of the questionnaire was identified according to the Likert scale and Cronbach’s alpha; later, data from the participants was analyzed as well. The article summarizes literature that is available about online assessment and is interesting for people who are interested in this kind of assessment. Based on the research findings, students favor in-person testing over online assessment due to their lack of experience and skills in the latter.

Keywords: online assessment, online proctoring

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Sh Norliza Sy Salim, Pedram Hatami Abdullah

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Civil and structural assets normally have an average of more than 30 years of design life. Adding to this advantage, the assets are normally subjected to slow degradation process. Due to the fact that repair and strengthening work for these assets are normally not dependent on plant shut down, the maintenance and integrity restoration of these assets are mostly done based on “as required” and “run to failure” basis. However unlike other industries, the exposure in oil and gas environment is harsher as the result of corrosive soil and groundwater, chemical spill, frequent wetting and drying, icing and de-icing, steam and heat, etc. Due to this type of exposure and the increasing level of structural defects and rectification in line with the increasing age of plants, assets integrity assessment requires a more defined scope and procedures that needs to be based on risk and assets criticality. This leads to the establishment of risk based inspection and proactive maintenance procedure for civil and structural assets. To date there is hardly any procedure and guideline as far as integrity assessment and systematic inspection and maintenance of civil and structural assets (onshore) are concerned. Group Technical Solutions has developed a procedure and guideline that takes into consideration credible failure scenario, assets risk and criticality from process safety and structural engineering perspective, structural importance, modeling and analysis among others. Detailed inspection that includes destructive and non-destructive tests (DT & NDT) and structural monitoring is also being performed to quantify defects, assess severity and impact on integrity as well as identify the timeline for integrity restoration. Each defect and its credible failure scenario is assessed against the risk on people, environment, reputation and production loss. This technical paper is intended to share on the established procedure and guideline and their execution in oil & gas plants. In line with the overall roadmap, the procedure and guideline will form part of specialized solutions to increase production and to meet the “Operational Excellence” target while extending service life of civil and structural assets. As the result of implementation, the management of civil and structural assets is now more systematically done and the “fire-fighting” mode of maintenance is being gradually phased out and replaced by a proactive and preventive approach. This technical paper will also set the criteria and pose the challenge to the industry for innovative repair and strengthening methods for civil & structural assets in oil & gas environment, in line with safety, constructability and continuous modification and revamp of plant facilities to meet production demand.

Keywords: assets criticality, credible failure scenario, proactive and preventive maintenance, risk based inspection

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Authors: Farah Lazzali, Yamina Ait Meziane

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Recent earthquakes in Algeria have demonstrated the need for seismic risk reduction. In fact, the latest major earthquake that affected the Algiers-Boumerdes region in 2003 caused excessive levels of loss of life and property. Economic, social and environmental damage were also experienced. During the three days following the event, a relatively weak coordination of public authority was noted. Many localities did not receive any relief due to lack of information from concerned authorities and delay in connecting damaged roads. Following this event, Algerian government and civil society has recognized the urgent need for an appropriate and immediate seismic risk mitigation strategy. This paper describes procedures for emergency response following past earthquakes in Algeria and provides a brief review of risk mitigation activities since 1980. The paper also aims to provide measures to reduce earthquake risk through general strategy and practical implementation of the mitigation actions.

Keywords: earthquake, hazard, prevention, strategy, risk reduction

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Authors: C. L. Wu, W. W. Tseng

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From the National Health Insurance (NHI) system was introduced in Taiwan in 2000, there have been some problems in transformed small-scale hospitals, such as mobility of patients, shortage of nursing staff, medical pipelines breaking fire compartments and insufficient fire protection systems. Due to shrinking of the funding scale and the aging society, fire safety in small-scale hospitals has recently given cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine fire risk index for small-scale hospital through a systematic approach The selection of fire safety mitigation methods can be regarded as a multi-attribute decision making process which must be guaranteed by expert groups. First of all, identify and select safety related factors and identify evaluation criteria through literature reviews and experts group. Secondly, application of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to ascertain a weighted value which enables rating of the importance each of the selected factors. Overall, Sprinkler type and Compartmentation are the most crucial indices in mitigating fire, that is to say, structural approach play an important role to decrease losses in fire events.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, process risk assessment, fire events

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Authors: Frank Hespeler, Giuseppe Loiacono

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We propose measures for systemic risk generated through intra-sectorial interdependencies in the hedge fund sector. These measures are based on variations in the average cross-effects of funds showing significant interdependency between their individual returns and the moments of the sector’s return distribution. The proposed measures display a high ability to identify periods of financial distress, are robust to modifications in the underlying econometric model and are consistent with intuitive interpretation of the results.

Keywords: hedge funds, systemic risk, vector autoregressive model, risk monitoring

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Authors: Marc Toutain, Pascale Leconte, Antoine Gauthier

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Introduction: Eating Disorders (ED), such as anorexia, bulimia, and binge eating, are psychiatric illnesses that mostly affect young people. The main symptoms concern eating (restriction, excessive food intake) and weight control behaviors (laxatives, vomiting). Psychological comorbidities (depression, executive function disorders, etc.) and problematic behaviors toward physical activity (PA) are commonly associated with ED. Acquaintances on ED risk factors are still lacking, and more community sample studies are needed to improve prevention and early detection. To our knowledge, studies are needed to specifically investigate the link between ED risk level, PA, and psychological risk factors in a community sample of adolescents. The aim of this study is to assess the relation between ED risk level, exercise (type, frequency, and motivations for engaging in exercise), and psychological factors based on the Jacobi risk factors model. We suppose that a high risk of ED will be associated with the practice of high caloric cost PA, motivations oriented to weight and shape control, and psychological disturbances. Method: An online survey destined for students has been sent to several middle schools and colleges in northwest France. This survey combined several questionnaires, the Eating Attitude Test-26 assessing ED risk; the Exercise Motivation Inventory–2 assessing motivations toward PA; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale assessing anxiety and depression, the Contour Drawing Rating Scale; and the Body Esteem Scale assessing body dissatisfaction, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale assessing self-esteem, the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised assessing PA dependence, the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness assessing interoceptive awareness and the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assessing perfectionism. Machine learning analysis will be performed in order to constitute groups with a tree-based model clustering method, extract risk profile(s) with a bootstrap method comparison, and predict ED risk with a prediction method based on a decision tree-based model. Expected results: 1044 complete records have already been collected, and the survey will be closed at the end of May 2022. Records will be analyzed with a clustering method and a bootstrap method in order to reveal risk profile(s). Furthermore, a predictive tree decision method will be done to extract an accurate predictive model of ED risk. This analysis will confirm typical main risk factors and will give more data on presumed strong risk factors such as exercise motivations and interoceptive deficit. Furthermore, it will enlighten particular risk profiles with a strong level of proof and greatly contribute to improving the early detection of ED and contribute to a better understanding of ED risk factors.

Keywords: eating disorders, risk factors, physical activity, machine learning

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Sarit Gideoni Cohen

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to examine possible risk pathway which initiated by the distal risk factors of insecure attachment to the mother, the father and peers and then developed by means of proximal risk factors: stressful life events and emotional distress. 275 participants (aged 13-26) from high-schools, youth groups and university were requited. Twenty-two percent participants reported at least one episode of self-injury. The relationship between paternal and peer attachment were partly mediated by stressful life events and depressive symptoms. Paternal and peer attachment influences during adolescence as contributing to risk pathway for self-injury were acknowledged.

Keywords: self-injury, attachment, depression, stressful life-events, adolescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Nada Al-Qallaf, Aisha Al-Barood, Djamel Lekmine, Srinivasan Vedhapuri

Abstract:

Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) under the supervision of Kuwait National Focal Point (KNFP) is planning to remediate 26 million (M) m3 of oil-contaminated soil in oil fields of Kuwait as a direct and indirect fallout of the Gulf War during 1990-1991. This project is funded by the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) under the Kuwait Environmental Remediation Program (KERP). Oil-contamination of the soil occurred due to the destruction of the oil wells and spilled crude oil across the land surface and created ‘oil lakes’ in low lying land. Aerial fall-out from oil spray and combustion products from oil fires combined with the sand and gravel on the ground surface to form a layer of hardened ‘Tarcrete’. The unique fresh groundwater lenses present in the Raudhatain and Sabriya subsurface areas had been impacted by the discharge and/or spills of dissolved petroleum constituents. These fresh groundwater aquifers were used for drinking water purposes until 1990, prior to invasion. This has significantly damages altered the landscape, ecology and habitat of the flora and fauna and in Kuwait Desert. Under KERP, KOC is fully responsible for the planning and execution of the remediation and restoration projects in KOC oil fields. After the initial recommendation of UNCC to construct engineered landfills for containment and disposal of heavily contaminated soils, two landfills were constructed, one in North Kuwait and another in South East Kuwait of capacity 1.7 million m3 and 0.5 million m3 respectively. KOC further developed the Total Remediation Strategy in conjunction with KNFP and has obtained UNCC approval. The TRS comprises of elements such as Risk Based Approach (RBA), Bioremediation of low Contaminated Soil levels, Remediation Treatment Technologies, Sludge Disposal via Beneficial Recycling or Re-use and Engineered landfills for Containment of untreatable materials. Risk Based Assessment as a key component to avoid any unnecessary remedial works, where it can be demonstrated that human health and the environment are sufficiently protected in the absence of active remediation. This study demonstrates on the risks of tarcrete materials spread over areas 20 Km2 on the fresh Ground water lenses/catchment located beneath the Sabriyah and Raudhatain oil fields in North Kuwait. KOC’s primary objective is to provide justification of using RBA, to support a case with the Kuwait regulators to leave the tarcrete material in place, rather than seek to undertake large-scale removal and remediation. The large-scale coverage of the tarcrete in the oil fields and perception that the residual contamination associated with this source is present in an environmentally sensitive area essentially in ground water resource. As part of this assessment, conceptual site model (CSM) and complete risk-based and fate and transport modelling was carried out which includes derivation of site-specific assessment criteria (SSAC) and quantification of risk to identified waters resource receptors posed by tarcrete impacted areas. The outcome of this assessment was determined that the residual tarcrete deposits across the site area shall not create risks to fresh groundwater resources and the remedial action to remove and remediate the surficial tarcrete deposits is not warranted.

Keywords: conceptual site model, fresh groundwater, oil-contaminated soil, tarcrete, risk based assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

Abstract:

In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 299