Search results for: pattern modeling

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Lukumba Phiri, Simon Tembo, Kumbuso Joshua Nyoni

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In Zambia recent initiatives by various power operators like ZESCO, CEC, and consumers like the mines to upgrade power systems into smart grids target an even tighter integration with information technologies to enable the integration of renewable energy sources, local and bulk generation, and demand response. Thus, for the reliable operation of smart grids, its information infrastructure must be secure and reliable in the face of both failures and cyberattacks. Due to the nature of the systems, ICS/SCADA cybersecurity and governance face additional challenges compared to the corporate networks, and critical systems may be left exposed. There exist control frameworks internationally such as the NIST framework, however, there are generic and do not meet the domain-specific needs of the SCADA systems. Zambia is also lagging in cybersecurity awareness and adoption, therefore there is a concern about securing ICS controlling key infrastructure critical to the Zambian economy as there are few known facts about the true posture. In this paper, we introduce a stochastic Edged-based Anomaly Detection for SCADA systems (SEADS) framework for threat modeling and risk assessment. SEADS enables the calculation of steady-steady probabilities that are further applied to establish metrics like system availability, maintainability, and reliability.

Keywords: anomaly, availability, detection, edge, maintainability, reliability, stochastic

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Authors: Morteza Khashehchi, Kamel Hooman

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Thermal effects on the dynamics and stability of the flow past a circular cylinder operating in the mixed convection regime is studied experimentally for Reynolds number (ReD) between 1000 and 4000, and different cylinder wall temperatures (Tw) between 25 and 75°C by means of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The experiments were conducted in a horizontal wind tunnel with the heated cylinder placed horizontally. With such assumptions, the direction of the thermally induced buoyancy force acting on the fluid surrounding the heated cylinder would be perpendicular to the flow direction. In each experiment, to acquire 3000 PIV image pairs, the temperature and Reynolds number of the approach flow were held constant. By adjusting different temperatures in different Reynolds numbers, the corresponding Richardson number (RiD = Gr/Re^2) was varied between 0:0 (unheated) and 10, resulting in a change in the heat transfer process from forced convection to mixed convection. With increasing temperature of the wall cylinder, significant modifications of the wake flow pattern and wake vortex shedding process were clearly revealed. For cylinder at low wall temperature, the size of the wake and the vortex shedding process are found to be quite similar to those of an unheated cylinder. With high wall temperature, however, the high temperature gradient in the wake shear layer creates a type of vorticity with opposite sign to that of the shear layer vorticity. This temperature gradient vorticity weakens the strength of the shear layer vorticity, causing delay in reaching the recreation point. In addition to the wake characteristics, the shedding frequency for the heated cylinder is determined for all aforementioned cases. It is found that, as the cylinder wall is heated, the organization of the vortex shedding is altered and the relative position of the first detached vortices with respect to the second one is changed. This movement of the first detached vortex toward the second one increases the frequency of the shedding process. It is also found that the wake closure length decreases with increasing the Richardson number.

Keywords: heated cylinder, PIV, wake, Reynolds number

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Authors: Vincent Murray

Abstract:

The glycopeptide bleomycin is used in the treatment of testicular cancer, Hodgkin's lymphoma, and squamous cell carcinoma. Bleomycin damages and cleaves DNA in human cells, and this is considered to be the main mode of action for bleomycin's anti-tumor activity. In particular, double-strand breaks are thought to be the main mechanism for the cellular toxicity of bleomycin. Using Illumina next-generation DNA sequencing techniques, the genome-wide sequence specificity of bleomycin-induced double-strand breaks was determined in human cells. The degree of bleomycin cleavage was also assessed at the transcription start sites (TSSs) of actively transcribed genes and compared with non-transcribed genes. It was observed that bleomycin preferentially cleaved at the TSSs of actively transcribed human genes. There was a correlation between the degree of this enhanced cleavage at TSSs and the level of transcriptional activity. Bleomycin cleavage is also affected by chromatin structure and at TSSs, the peaks of bleomycin cleavage were approximately 200 bp apart. This indicated that bleomycin was able to detect phased nucleosomes at the TSSs of actively transcribed human genes. The genome-wide cleavage pattern of the bleomycin analogues 6′-deoxy-BLM Z and zorbamycin was also investigated in human cells. As found for bleomycin, these bleomycin analogues also preferentially cleaved at the TSSs of actively transcribed human genes. The cytotoxicity (IC₅₀ values) of these bleomycin analogues was determined. It was found that the degree of enhanced cleavage at TSSs was inversely correlated with the IC₅₀ values of the bleomycin analogues. This suggested that the level of cleavage at the TSSs of actively transcribed human genes was important for the cytotoxicity of bleomycin and analogues. Hence this study provided a deeper understanding of the cellular processes involved in the cancer chemotherapeutic activity of bleomycin.

Keywords: anti-tumour activity, bleomycin analogues, chromatin structure, genome-wide study, Illumina DNA sequencing

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

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Authors: Elena M. Kopteva, Pavlina Jaluvkova, Zdenek Stuchlik

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In spite of the numerous attempts to close the discussion about the influence of cosmological expansion on local gravitationally bounded systems, this question arises in literature again and again and remains still far from its final resolution. Here one of the main problems is the problem of obtaining a physically adequate model of strongly gravitating object immersed in non-static cosmological background. Such objects are usually called ‘cosmological’ black holes and are of great interest in wide set of cosmological and astrophysical areas. In this work the set of new exact solutions of the Einstein equations is derived for the flat space that generalizes the known Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution for the case of nonzero pressure. The solutions obtained are pretending to describe the black hole immersed in nonstatic cosmological background and give a possibility to investigate the hot problems concerning the effects of the cosmological expansion in gravitationally bounded systems, the structure formation in the early universe, black hole thermodynamics and other related problems. It is shown that each of the solutions obtained contains either the Reissner-Nordstrom or the Schwarzschild black hole in the central region of the space. It is demonstrated that the approach of the mass function use in solving of the Einstein equations allows clear physical interpretation of the resulting solutions, that is of much benefit to any their concrete application.

Keywords: exact solutions of the Einstein equations, cosmological black holes, generalized Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solutions, nonzero pressure

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Authors: Abeer F. Almarzouki, Christopher A. Brown, Richard J. Brown, Anthony K. P. Jones

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Although relief is commonly assumed to be a direct reflection of pain reduction, it seems to be driven by complex emotional interactions in which pain reduction is only one component. For example, termination of a painful/aversive event may be relieving and rewarding. Accordingly, in this study, whether terminating an aversive negative prediction of pain would be reflected in a greater relief experience was investigated, with a view to separating apart the effects of the manipulation on pain and relief. We use aversive conditioning paradigm to investigate the perception of relief in an aversive (threat) vs. positive context. Participants received positive predictors of a non-painful outcome which were presented within either a congruent positive (non-painful) context or an incongruent threat (painful) context that had been previously conditioned; trials followed by identical laser stimuli on both conditions. Participants were asked to rate the perceived intensity of pain as well as their perception of relief in response to the cue predicting the outcome. Results demonstrated that participants reported more pain in the aversive context compared to the positive context. Conversely, participants reported more relief in the aversive context compares to the neutral context. The rating of relief in the threat context was not correlated with pain reports. The results suggest that relief is not dependant on pain intensity. Consistent with this, relief in the threat context was greater than that in the positive expectancy condition, while the opposite pattern was obtained for the pain ratings. The value of relief in this study is better appreciated in the context of an impending negative threat, which is apparent in the higher pain ratings in the prior negative expectancy compared to the positive expectancy condition. Moreover, the more threatening the context (as manifested by higher unpleasantness/higher state anxiety scores), the more the relief is appreciated. The importance of the study highlights the importance of exploring relief and pain intensity in monitoring separately or evaluating pain-related suffering. The results also illustrate that the perception of painful input may largely be shaped by the context and not necessarily stimulus-related.

Keywords: aversive context, pain, predictions, relief

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Authors: Qin Zhu

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Under the background of accelerating the construction of Beautiful and Livable Park City in Chengdu, the Tianfu greenway system, as an important support system for the construction of parks in the whole region, its accessibility is one of the key indicators to measure the effectiveness of the greenway construction. In recent years, cycling has become an important transportation mode for residents to go to the greenways because of its low-carbon, healthy and convenient characteristics, and the study of greenway accessibility under cycling mode can provide reference suggestions for the optimization and improvement of greenways. Taking Jincheng Greenway in Chengdu City as an example, the Baidu Map Application Programming Interface (API) and questionnaire survey was used to improve the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method from the three dimensions of search threshold, supply side and demand side, to calculate the cycling accessibility of the greenway and to explore the spatial matching relationship with the population density, the number of entrances and the comprehensive attractiveness. The results show that: 1) the distribution of greenway accessibility in Jincheng shows a pattern of "high in the south and low in the north, high in the west and low in the east", 2) the spatial match between greenway accessibility and population density of the residential area is imbalanced, and there is a significant positive correlation between accessibility and the number of selectable greenway access points in residential areas, as well as the overall attractiveness of greenways, with a high degree of match. On this basis, it is proposed to give priority to the mismatch area to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, optimize the greenway access points to improve the traffic connection, enhance the comprehensive quality of the greenway and strengthen the service capacity, to further improve the cycling accessibility of the Jincheng Greenway and improve the spatial allocation of greenway resources.

Keywords: accessibility, Baidu maps API, cycling, greenway, 2SFCA

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Authors: Chaya B. M., C. Dhanush, Inti Sai Srikar, Akula Pavan Parvatalu, Chirag Gowda R

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Recently, there has been a lot of interest in µ-LED technology because of its exceptional qualities, including auto emission, high visibility, low consumption of power, rapid response and longevity. Light-emitting diodes (LED) using III-nitride, such as lighting sources, visible light communication (VLC) devices, and high-power devices, are finding increasing use as miniaturization technology advances. The use of micro-LED displays in place of traditional display technologies like liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) is one of the most prominent recent advances, which may even represent the next generation of displays. The development of fully integrated, multifunctional devices and the incorporation of extra capabilities into micro-LED displays, such as sensing, light detection, and solar cells, are the pillars of advanced technology. Due to the wide range of applications for micro-LED technology, the effectiveness and dependability of these devices in numerous harsh conditions are becoming increasingly important. Enough research has been conducted to overcome the under-effectiveness of micro-LED devices. In this paper, different Micro LED design structures are proposed in order to achieve optimized optical properties. In order to attain improved external quantum efficiency (EQE), devices' light extraction efficiency (LEE) has also been boosted.

Keywords: finite difference time domain, light out coupling efficiency, far field intensity, power density, quantum efficiency, flat panel displays

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Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

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Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section. In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator.Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity used in the abstract.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved heat pipe, CFD simulation

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Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

Abstract:

Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section.In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator.Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity used in the abstract.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved heat pipe, heat pipe limits

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Authors: Isaac Owusu Asante, Yushi Jiang, Hailin Tao

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Live streaming marketing, the new electronic commerce element, became an optional marketing channel following the COVID-19 pandemic. Many sellers have leveraged the features presented by live streaming to increase sales. Studies on live streaming have focused on gaming and consumers’ loyalty to brands through live streaming, using interview questionnaires. This study, however, was conducted to measure real-time observable interactions between consumers and sellers. Based on the affordance theory, this study conceptualized constructs representing the interactive features and examined how they drive consumers’ purchase willingness during live streaming sessions using 1238 datasets from Amazon Live, following the manual observation of transaction records. Using structural equation modeling, the ordinary least square regression suggests that live viewers, new followers, live chats, and likes positively affect purchase willingness. The Sobel and Monte Carlo tests show that new followers, live chats, and likes significantly mediate the relationship between live viewers and purchase willingness. The study introduces a new way of measuring interactions in live streaming commerce and proposes a way to manually gather data on consumer behaviors in live streaming platforms when the application programming interface (API) of such platforms does not support data mining algorithms.

Keywords: livestreaming marketing, live chats, live viewers, likes, new followers, purchase willingness

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Authors: S. Curtin, A. Trace

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Introduction: As patients can often be ambivalent about or resistant to any change in their smoking behavior the traditional ‘5 A’ model may be limited as it assumes that patients are ready and motivated to change. However, there is a stage model that is helpful to give guidance for dental students: the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). This model allows students to understand the tasks and goals for the pre-contemplation stage. The TTM was introduced in early stages as a core component of a smoking cessation programme that was integrated into a Behavioral Science programme as applied to dentistry. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and illustrate the students’ current level of knowledge from the questions the students generated in order to engage patients in the tasks and goals of the pre-contemplation stage. Method: N=47 responses of fifth-year undergraduate dental students. These responses were the data set for this study and related to their knowledge base of appropriate questions for a dentist to ask at the pre-contemplation stage of change. A deductive -descriptive analysis was conducted on the data. The goals and tasks of the pre-contemplation stage of the TTM provided a template for this deductive analysis. Results: 51% of students generated relevant, open, exploratory questions for the pre-contemplation stage, whilst 100% of students generated closed questions. With regard to those questions appropriate for the pre-contemplation stage, 19% were open and exploratory, while 66% were closed questions. A deductive analysis of the open exploratory questions revealed that 53% of the questions addressed increased concern about the current pattern of behavior, 38% of the questions concerned increased awareness of a need for change and only 8% of the questions dealt with the envisioning of the possibility of change. Conclusion: All students formulated relevant questions for the pre-contemplation stage, and half of the students generated the open, exploratory questions that increased patients’ awareness of the need to change. More training is required to facilitate a shift in the formulation from closed to open questioning, especially given that, traditionally, smoking cessation was modeled on the ‘5 As’, and that the general training for dentists supports an advisory and directive approach.

Keywords: behaviour change, pre-contemplation stage, trans-theoretical model, undergraduate dentistry students

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Authors: Andreas Johansson

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Conceptual understanding needs to be grounded on observation of physical phenomena, experiences or metaphors. Observation of physical phenomena using demonstration experiments has a long tradition within physics education and students need to develop mental models to relate the observations to concepts from scientific theories. This study investigates how live and video experiments involving an acoustic trap to visualize particle-field interaction, field properties and particle properties can help develop students' mental models and how they can be used differently to realize their potential as teaching tools. Initially, they were treated as analogs and the lesson designs were kept identical. With a design-based approach, the experimental and video designs, as well as best practices for a respective teaching tool, were then developed in iterations. Variation theory was used as a theoretical framework to analyze the planned respective realized pattern of variation and invariance in order to explain learning outcomes as measured by a pre-posttest consisting of conceptual multiple-choice questions inspired by the Force Concept Inventory and the Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation. Interviews with students and teachers were used to inform the design of experiments and videos in each iteration. The lesson designs and the live and video experiments has been developed to help teachers improve student learning and make school physics more interesting by involving experimental setups that usually are out of reach and to bridge the gap between what happens in classrooms and in science research. As students’ conceptual knowledge also rises their interest in physics the aim is to increase their chances of pursuing careers within science, technology, engineering or mathematics.

Keywords: acoustic trap, design-based research, experiments, variation theory

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Authors: Xinxiu Li, Chuqian Zheng, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Objectives: In hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), oncogenes are continuously and robustly transcribed due to aberrant expression of essential components of the trans-acting super-enhancers (SE) complex. Preclinical and clinical trials are now being conducted on small-molecule inhibitors that target core-transcriptional components, including as transcriptional bromodomain protein 4 (BRD4) and cyclin-dependent kinase 7 (CDK7), in a number of malignant tumors. This study aims to explore whether co-overexpression of BRD4 and CDK7 is a potential marker of worse prognosis and a combined therapeutic target in HCC. Methods: The expression pattern of BRD4 and CDK7 and their correlation with prognosis in HCC were analyzed by RNA sequencing data and survival data of HCC patients from TCGA and GEO datasets. The protein levels of BRD4 and CDK7 were determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC), and survival data of patients were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The mRNA expression levels of genes in HCC cell lines were evaluated by quantitative PCR (q-PCR). CCK-8 and colony formation assays were conducted to assess cell proliferation of HCC upon treatment with BRD4 inhibitor JQ1 or/and CDK7 inhibitor THZ1. Results: It was shown that BRD4 and CDK7 were often overexpressed in HCCs and were associated with poor prognosis of HCC by analyzing the TCGA and GEO datasets. BRD4 or CDK7 overexpression was related to a lower survival rate. It's interesting to note that co-overexpression of CDK7 and BRD4 was a worse prognostic factor in HCC. Treatment with JQ1 or THZ1 alone had an inhibitory effect on cell proliferation; however, when JQ1 and THZ1 were combined, there was a more notable suppression of cell growth. At the same time, the combined use of JQ1 and THZ1 synergistically suppresses the expression of HCC driver genes. Conclusion: Our research revealed that BRD4 and CDK7 coupled can be a useful biomarker in HCC prognosis and the combination of JQ1 and THZ1 can be a promising therapeutic therapy against HCC.

Keywords: BRD4, CDK7, cell proliferation, combined inhibition

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Authors: Sarwat Jahan, Asker Rajin Rahman

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Management of offtake of any fluvial river is very sensitive in terms of long-term sustainability where the variation of water flow and sediment transport range are wide enough throughout a hydrological year. The Gorai River is a major distributary of the Ganges River in Bangladesh and is termed as a primary source of fresh water for the South-West part of the country. Every year, significant siltation of the Gorai offtake disconnects it from the Ganges during the dry season. As a result, the socio-economic and environmental condition of the downstream areas has been deteriorating for a few decades. To improve the overall situation of the Gorai offtake and its dependent areas, a study has been conducted by the Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh, in 2022. Using the mathematical morphological modeling tool MIKE 21C of DHI Water & Environment, Denmark, simulated results revealed the need for dredging/river training structures for offtake management at the Gorai offtake to ensure significant dry season flow towards the downstream. The dry season flow is found to increase significantly with the proposed river interventions, which also improves the environmental conditions in terms of salinity of the South-West zone of the country. This paper summarizes the primary findings of the analyzed results of the developed mathematical model for improving the existing condition of the Gorai River.

Keywords: Gorai river, mathematical modelling, offtake, siltation, salinity

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Authors: Md Motibur Rahman

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The present paper attempts to study the electoral politics and voting behavior of 2011 assembly election of West Bengal state in India. Electoral geography is considered as the study of geographical aspects of the organization, conduct, and result of elections. It deals with the spatial voting patterns/behaviour or the study of the spatial distribution of political phenomena of voting. Voting behavior is a form of political psychology which played a great role in political decision-making process. The voting behavior of the electorates is largely influenced by their perception that existing during the time of election. The main focus of the study will be to analyze the electoral politics of the party organizations and political profile of the electorates. The principle objectives of the present work are i) to study the spatial patterns of voting behavior in 2011 assembly election in West Bengal, ii) to analysis the result and finding of 2011 assembly election. The whole study based on the secondary source of data. The electoral data have taken from Election Commission of India, New Delhi and Centre for the study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in New Delhi. In the battle of 2011 Assembly election in West Bengal, the two major parties were Left Front and Trinamool Congress. This election witnessed the remarkable successes of Trinamool Congress and decline of 34 years longest ruler party that is Left Front. Trinamool Congress won a majority of seats that 227 out of 294 but Left Front won only 62 seats out of 294 seats. The significance of the present study is that it helps in understanding the voting pattern, voting behaviour, trends of voting and also helps for further study of electoral geography in West Bengal. The study would be highly significant and helpful to the planners, politicians, and administrators who are involved in the formulation of development plans and programmes for the people of the state.

Keywords: assembly election, electoral geography, electoral politics, voting behaviour

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Authors: Rakesh C. Mathad, G. Y. Lokesh, Basavegowda

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In agriculture using quality seeds of improved varieties is very important to ensure higher productivity thereby food security and sustainability. To ensure good productivity, seeds should have characters as described by the breeder. To know whether the characters as described by the breeder are expressing in a variety such as genuineness or genetic purity, field grow out test (GOT) is done. In pigeon pea which is long durational crop, conducting a GOT may take very long time and expensive also. Since in pigeon pea flower character is a most distinguishing character from the contaminants, conducting a field grow out test require 120-130 days or till flower emergence, which may increase cost of storage and seed production. This will also delay the distribution of seed inventory to the pigeon pea growing areas. In this view during 2014-15 with financial support of Govt. of Karnataka, India, a project to develop a molecular genetic test for newly developed variety of pigeon pea cv.TS3R was commissioned at Seed Unit, UAS, Raichur. A molecular test was developed with the help SSR markers to identify pure variety from possible off types in newly released pigeon pea variety TS3R. In the investigation, 44 primer pairs were screened to identify the specific marker associated with this variety. Pigeon pea cv. TS3R could be clearly identified by using the primer CCM 293 based on the banding pattern resolved on gel electrophoresis and PCR reactions. However some of the markers like AHSSR 46, CCM 82 and CCM 57 can be used to test other popular varieties in the region like Asha, GRG-811 and Maruti respectively. Further to develop this in to a lab test, the seed sample size was standardized to 200 seeds and a grow out matrix was developed. This matrix was used to sample 12 days old leaves to extract DNA. The lab test results were validated with actual field GOT test results and found variations within the acceptable limit of 1%. This molecular method can now be employed to test the genetic purity in pigeon pea cv TS3R which reduces the time and can be a cheaper alternative method for field GOT.

Keywords: genuineness, grow-out matrix, molecular genetic purity, SSR markers

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Authors: Isaac Mugume

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Since the beginning of the 21st century, climate change has been an issue due to the reported rise in global temperature and changes in the frequency as well as severity of extreme weather and climatic events. The changing climate has been attributed to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, including environmental changes such as ecosystems and land-uses. Climatic projections have been carried out under the auspices of the intergovernmental panel on climate change where a couple of models have been run to inform us about the likelihood of future climates. Since one of the major forcings informing the changing climate is emission of greenhouse gases, different scenarios have been proposed and future climates for different periods presented. The global climate models project different areas to experience different impacts. While regional modeling is being carried out for high impact studies, bias correction is less documented. Yet, the regional climate models suffer bias which introduces uncertainty. This is addressed in this study by bias correcting the regional models. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model under different representative concentration pathways and correcting the products of these models using observed climatic data. This study notes that bias correction (e.g., the running-mean bias correction; the best easy systematic estimator method; the simple linear regression method, nearest neighborhood, weighted mean) improves the climatic projection skill and therefore reduce the uncertainty inherent in the climatic projections.

Keywords: bias correction, climatic projections, numerical models, representative concentration pathways

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Authors: Sushish Baral, Pratibha Joshi, Yaman Maharjan

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Glaucoma is a chronic eye condition that causes vision loss that is irreversible. Early detection and treatment are critical to prevent vision loss because it can be asymptomatic. For the identification of glaucoma, multiple deep learning algorithms are used. Transformer-based architectures, which use the self-attention mechanism to encode long-range dependencies and acquire extremely expressive representations, have recently become popular. Convolutional architectures, on the other hand, lack knowledge of long-range dependencies in the image due to their intrinsic inductive biases. The aforementioned statements inspire this thesis to look at transformer-based solutions and investigate the viability of adopting transformer-based network designs for glaucoma detection. Using retinal fundus images of the optic nerve head to develop a viable algorithm to assess the severity of glaucoma necessitates a large number of well-curated images. Initially, data is generated by augmenting ocular pictures. After that, the ocular images are pre-processed to make them ready for further processing. The system is trained using pre-processed images, and it classifies the input images as normal or glaucoma based on the features retrieved during training. The Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture is well suited to this situation, as it allows the self-attention mechanism to utilise structural modeling. Extensive experiments are run on the common dataset, and the results are thoroughly validated and visualized.

Keywords: glaucoma, vision transformer, convolutional architectures, retinal fundus images, self-attention, deep learning

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Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

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The objectives of memorabilia of Suan Sunandha are to develop a general knowledge presentation about the historical royal garden through interactive graphic simulation technique and to employ high-functionality context in enhancing interactive user navigation. The approach infers non-intrusive display of relevant history in response to situational context. User’s navigation runs through the virtual reality campus, consisting of new and restored buildings. A flash back presentation of information pertaining to the history in the form of photos, paintings, and textual descriptions are displayed along each passing-by building. To keep the presentation lively, graphical simulation is created in a serendipity game play so that the user can both learn and enjoy the educational tour. The benefits of this human-computer interaction development are two folds. First, lively presentation technique and situational context modeling are developed that entail a usable paradigm of knowledge and information presentation combinations. Second, cost effective training and promotion for both internal personnel and public visitors to learn and keep informed of this historical royal garden can be furnished without the need for a dedicated public relations service. Future improvement on graphic simulation and ability based display can extend this work to be more realistic, user-friendly, and informative for all.

Keywords: interactive user navigation, high-functionality context, situational context, human-computer interaction

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Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

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Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

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Authors: Jalila Jbilou, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Pierre Gosselin

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Background: West Nile virus is increasingly an important public health issue in North America. In Canada, WVN was officially reported in Toronto and Montréal for the first time in 2001. During the last decade, several WNV events have been reported in several Canadian provinces. The main objective of the present study is to update the frequency of the climate conditions favorable to WNV outbreaks in Canada. Method: Statistical frequency analysis has been used to estimate the return period for climate conditions associated with WNV outbreaks for the 1961–2050 period. The best fit is selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results: Results show that the climate conditions related to the 2002 event, for Montreal and Toronto, are becoming more frequent. For Saskatoon, the highest DD20 events recorded for the last few decades were observed in 2003 and 2007. The estimated return periods are 30 years and 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The emergence of WNV was related to extremely high DD values in the summer. However, some exceptions may be related to several factors such as virus persistence, vector migration, and also improved diagnosis and reporting levels. It is clear that such climate conditions have become much more common in the last decade and will likely continue to do so over future decades.

Keywords: West Nile virus, climate, North America, statistical frequency analysis, risk estimation, public health, modeling, scenario, temperature, precipitation

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Authors: Malgorzata Krysiak, Anna Wegrzyn, Maciej Garstka, Radoslaw Mazur

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Under constantly fluctuating environmental conditions, the thylakoid membrane protein network evolved the ability to dynamically respond to changing biotic and abiotic factors. One of the most important protective mechanism is rearrangement of the chlorophyll-protein (CP) complexes, induced by protein phosphorylation. In a temperate climate, low temperature is one of the abiotic stresses that heavily affect plant growth and productivity. The aim of this study was to determine the role of LHCII antenna complex phosphorylation in the dark-chilling response. The study included an experimental model based on dark-chilling at 4 °C of detached chilling sensitive (CS) runner bean (Phaseolus coccineus L.) and chilling tolerant (CT) garden pea (Pisum sativum L.) leaves. This model is well described in the literature as used for the analysis of chilling impact without any additional effects caused by light. We examined changes in thylakoid membrane protein phosphorylation, interactions between phosphorylated LHCII (P-LHCII) and CP complexes, and their impact on the dynamics of photosystem II (PSII) under dark-chilling conditions. Our results showed that the dark-chilling treatment of CS bean leaves induced a substantial increase of phosphorylation of LHCII proteins, as well as changes in CP complexes composition and their interaction with P-LHCII. The PSII photochemical efficiency measurements showed that in bean, PSII is overloaded with light energy, which is not compensated by CP complexes rearrangements. On the contrary, no significant changes in PSII photochemical efficiency, phosphorylation pattern and CP complexes interactions were observed in CT pea. In conclusion, our results indicate that different responses of the LHCII phosphorylation to chilling stress take place in CT and CS plants, and that kinetics of LHCII phosphorylation and interactions of P-LHCII with photosynthetic complexes may be crucial to chilling stress response. Acknowledgments: presented work was financed by the National Science Centre, Poland grant No.: 2016/23/D/NZ3/01276

Keywords: LHCII, phosphorylation, chilling stress, pea, runner bean

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Authors: Maxime A. J. Kuitche, Ruxandra M. Botez, Arthur Guillemin

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As the Unmanned Aerial Systems have found diverse utilities in both military and civil aviation, the necessity to obtain an accurate aerodynamic model has shown an enormous growth of interest. Recent modeling techniques are procedures using optimization algorithms and statistics that require many flight tests and are therefore extremely demanding in terms of costs. This paper presents a procedure to estimate the aerodynamic behavior of an unmanned aerial system from a numerical approach using computational fluid dynamic analysis. The study was performed using an unstructured mesh obtained from a grid convergence analysis at a Mach number of 0.14, and at an angle of attack of 0°. The flow around the aircraft was described using a standard k-ω turbulence model. Thus, the Reynold Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were solved using ANSYS FLUENT software. The method was applied on the UAS-S45 designed and manufactured by Hydra Technologies in Mexico. The lift, the drag, and the pitching moment coefficients were obtained at different angles of attack for several flight conditions defined in terms of altitudes and Mach numbers. The results obtained from the Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis were compared with the results obtained by using the DATCOM semi-empirical procedure. This comparison has indicated that our approach is highly accurate and that the aerodynamic model obtained could be useful to estimate the flight dynamics of the UAS-S45.

Keywords: aerodynamic modelling, CFD Analysis, ANSYS FLUENT, UAS-S45

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Authors: Shoumodip Roy, Ankit Singhania, K. R. K. Rao, Ravi Shankar, M. K. Agarwal, R. V. Ramna, Uttam Singh

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The productivity of a blast furnace and the quality of the hot metal produced are significantly dependent on the smoothness and stability of furnace operation. The permeability of the furnace bed, as well as the gas flow pattern, influences the steady control of process parameters. The softening – melting zone that is formed inside the furnace contributes largely in distribution of the gas flow and the bed permeability. A better shape of softening-melting zone enhances the performance of blast furnace, thereby reducing the fuel rates and improving furnace life. Therefore, predictive model of the softening- melting zone profile can be utilized to control and improve the furnace operation. The shape of softening-melting zone depends upon the physical and chemical properties of the agglomerates and iron ore charged in the furnace. The variations in the agglomerate proportion in the burden at G Blast furnace disturbed the furnace stability. During such circumstances, it was analyzed that a w-shape softening-melting zone profile was formed inside the furnace. The formation of w-shape zone resulted in poor bed permeability and non-uniform gas flow. There was a significant increase in the heat loss at the lower zone of the furnace. The fuel demand increased, and the huge production loss was incurred. Therefore, visibility of softening-melting zone profile was necessary in order to pro-actively optimize the process parameters and thereby to operate the furnace smoothly. Using stave temperatures, a model was developed that predicted the shape of the softening-melting zone inside the furnace. It was observed that furnace operated smoothly during inverse V-shape of the zone and vice-versa during w-shape. This model helped to control the heat loss, optimize the burden distribution and lower the fuel rate at G Blast Furnace, TSL Jamshedpur. As a result of furnace stabilization productivity increased by 10% and fuel rate reduced by 80 kg/thm. Details of the process have been discussed in this paper.

Keywords: agglomerate, blast furnace, permeability, softening-melting

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Authors: Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian, Reza Dinarvand

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This paper is going to discuss two issues encountered in using PLAXIS. Both issues were monitored during application of PLAXIS to estimate the excavation-induced displacement. Column Soil Mixing (CSM) was applied to stabilise the excavation. It was understood that the estimated excavation induced deformation at the top of the CSM blocks highly depends on the material type defining pavement material adjacent to the CSM blocks. Cohesive material for pavement will result in the unrealistic connection between pavement and CSM even by defining an interface element. To find the most realistic approach, the interface defined in three different manners (1) no interface elements were applied (2) a non-cohesive soil layer was defined between pavement and CSM block to represent the friction between these materials (3) built-in interface elements in PLAXIS was used to define the boundary between the pavement and the CSM block. The result showed that the option 2 would result in more realistic results. The second issue was in the modelling of the contact line between the CSM block and an inclined layer underneath. The analysis result showed that the excavation-induced deformation highly depends on how the PLAXIS user defines the contact area. It was understood that if the contact area had defined as a point in which CSM block had intersected the layer underneath the estimated lateral displacement of CSM block would be unrealistically lower than the model in which the contact area was defined as a line.

Keywords: PLAXIS, FEM, CSM, Excavation-Induced Deformation

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Authors: A. Ghanami, M.Heydari

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Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section. In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator. Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity.used in the abstract.

Keywords: Heat pipe, HVAC system, Grooved Heat pipe, Heat pipe limits.

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Authors: Mehdi Khakzand, Flora Fakourian

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It has been seen in recent years that architects are using virtual modeling to help them visualize their projects. Research has indicated that virtual media, particularly virtual reality, enhances architects' comprehension of design and spatial perception. Creating a communal experience for active learning is an essential component of the design process in architecture pedagogy. It has been particularly challenging to replicate design principles as a critical teaching function, and this is a complex issue that demands comprehension. Nonetheless, the usage of simulation should be studied and limited as appropriate. In conjunction with extensive technology, 3D geometric illustration can bridge the gap between the real and virtual worlds. This research intends to deliver a pedagogical experience in the architecture basics course to improve the architectural design process utilizing virtual reality tools. This tool seeks to tackle current challenges in current ways of architectural illustration by offering building geometry illustration, building information (data from the building information model), and simulation results. These tools were tested over three days in a design workshop with 12 architectural students. This article provided an architectural VR-based course and explored its application in boosting students' active experiences. According to the research, this technology can improve students' cognitive skills from challenging simulations by boosting visual understanding.

Keywords: active experience, architecture pedagogy, virtual reality, spatial perception

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Authors: Vacharee Svamivastu

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This research investigates the application of geometrical relationship to the ancient religious assembly hall (Vihara) housing a reclining Buddha statue of Thailand's Kamphaeng Phet Historical Park. The study utilizes the archaeological and wooden roof structure remains of the Vihara as the prima facie evidence, supplemented with evidence from other active archaeological sites with architectural kinship as well as Buddhist ideology. At present, the wooden roofs of the Vihara fell prey to the elements and there remain only the base, columns and enclosing walls. Unlike typical Viharas whose floor plan are of rectangular shape, the floor plan of the Vihara housing the reclining Buddha is of square configuration of 25x25m. Further observation has revealed the utilization of large laterite boulders as the principal construction material of the assembly hall (Vihara) columns. The laterite columns are of square shape (1x1m) and various heights (H), ranging from 3.50m to 5.50m. The erection of the Vihara required a total of 36 laterite columns. The pattern of columns arrangement is of two rows of inner columns, two rows of outer columns and two rows of verandah columns. The space between pairs of the verandah columns was stacked with laterite blocks of varying sizes to form the Vihara walls with small openings for ventilation. Upon applying the geometrical relationship-grid system to the Vihara, the results reveal that the placement of the columns was deliberately and masterfully undertaken such that the center of the square-shaped Vihara is conspicuously spacious so as to accommodate the sacred reclining Buddha statue. The elegance of the Vihara demonstrates the ingenious application of geometrical relationship to transforming a space into a structure (i.e. Vihara) of architectural and religious significance.

Keywords: geometrical relationship, the religious assembly hall, Vihara, Kamphaeng Phet School of Master Builder

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