Search results for: risk factors for flap failure

Authors: Braimah Joseph Odunayo, Jiju Gillariose

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This paper is aimed at developing a sampling plan that uses information from precedent and successive lots for lot disposition with a pretention that the life-time of a particular product assumes a Log-logistic distribution. A Two-pronged Truncated Deferred Sampling Plan (TTDSP) for Log-logistic distribution is proposed when the testing is truncated at a precise time. The best possible sample sizes are obtained under a given Maximum Allowable Percent Defective (MAPD), Test Suspension Ratios (TSR), and acceptance numbers (c). A formula for calculating the operating characteristics of the proposed plan is also developed. The operating characteristics and mean-ratio values were used to measure the performance of the plan. The findings of the study show that: Log-logistic distribution has a decreasing failure rate; furthermore, as mean-life ratio increase, the failure rate reduces; the sample size increase as the acceptance number, test suspension ratios and maximum allowable percent defective increases. The study concludes that the minimum sample sizes were smaller, which makes the plan a more economical plan to adopt when cost and time of production are costly and the experiment being destructive.

Keywords: consumers risk, mean life, minimum sample size, operating characteristics, producers risk

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Authors: Rajender Dahiya

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Investigation outcomes of major process incidents have been consistent for decades and validate that the causes and consequences are often identical. The debate remains as we continue to experience similar process incidents even with enormous development of new tools, technologies, industry standards, codes, regulations, and learning processes? The objective of this paper is to investigate the most common causes of major industrial incidents and reveal industry challenges and best practices to prevent such incidents. The author, in his current role, performs audits and inspections of a variety of high-hazard industries in North America, including petroleum refineries, chemicals, petrochemicals, manufacturing, etc. In this paper, he shares real life scenarios, examples, and case studies from high hazards operating facilities including key challenges and best practices. This case study will provide a clear understanding of the importance of near miss incident investigation. The incident was a Safe operating limit excursion. The case describes the deficiencies in management programs, the competency of employees, and the culture of the corporation that includes hazard identification and risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of safety-critical equipment, operating discipline, learning from process safety near misses, process safety competency, process safety culture, audits, and performance measurement. Failure to identify the hazards and manage the risks of highly hazardous materials and processes is one of the primary root-causes of an incident, and failure to learn from past incidents is the leading cause of the recurrence of incidents. Several investigations of major incidents discovered that each showed several warning signs before occurring, and most importantly, all were preventable. The author will discuss why preventable incidents were not prevented and review the mutual causes of learning failures from past major incidents. The leading causes of past incidents are summarized below. Management failure to identify the hazard and/or mitigate the risk of hazardous processes or materials. This process starts early in the project stage and continues throughout the life cycle of the facility. For example, a poorly done hazard study such as HAZID, PHA, or LOPA is one of the leading causes of the failure. If this step is performed correctly, then the next potential cause is. Management failure to maintain the integrity of safety critical systems and equipment. In most of the incidents, mechanical integrity of the critical equipment was not maintained, safety barriers were either bypassed, disabled, or not maintained. The third major cause is Management failure to learn and/or apply learning from the past incidents. There were several precursors before those incidents. These precursors were either ignored altogether or not taken seriously. This paper will conclude by sharing how a well-implemented operating management system, good process safety culture, and competent leaders and staff contributed to managing the risks to prevent major incidents.

Keywords: incident investigation, risk management, loss prevention, process safety, accident prevention

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Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot

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The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labour and Social Welfare that was taken from the labour force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of six in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education and years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.

Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Binjuan Xu, Qian Zhao, Ping Jiang, Bo Guo, Zhijun Cheng, Xiaoyue Wu

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Astronautical valves are key units in engine systems of astronautical products; their reliability will influence results of rocket or missile launching, even lead to damage to staff and devices on the ground. Besides failure in engine system may influence the hitting accuracy and flight shot of missiles. Therefore high reliability is quite essential to astronautical products. There are quite a few literature doing research based on few failure test data to estimate valves’ reliability, thus this paper proposed a new method to estimate valves’ reliability, according to the corresponding tests of different failure modes, this paper takes advantage of tests data which acquired from temperature, vibration, and action tests to estimate reliability in every failure modes, then this paper has regarded these three kinds of tests as three stages in products’ process to integrate these results to acquire valves’ reliability. Through the comparison of results achieving from tests data and simulated data, the results have illustrated how to obtain valves’ reliability based on the few failure data with failure modes and prove that the results are effective and rational.

Keywords: censored data, temperature tests, valves, vibration tests

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Authors: Michel A. Thomet

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A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

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Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

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This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

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This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

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Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Hongmeng Su, Luyu Zhao, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors that endanger human health seriously. RNA methylation, especially N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) and 5-methylcytosine (m⁵C), a crucial epigenetic transcriptional regulatory mechanism, plays an important role in tumorigenesis, progression and prognosis. This research aims to systematically evaluate the prognostic value of m⁶A and m⁵C modulators in HCC patients. Methods: Twenty-four modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C were candidates to analyze their expression level and their contribution to predict the prognosis of HCC. Consensus clustering analysis was applied to classify HCC patients. Cox and LASSO regression were used to construct the risk model. According to the risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low/medium-risk groups. The clinical pathology factors of HCC patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: The HCC patients were classified into 2 clusters with significant differences in overall survival and clinical characteristics. Nine-gene risk model was constructed including METTL3, VIRMA, YTHDF1, YTHDF2, NOP2, NSUN4, NSUN5, DNMT3A and ALYREF. It was indicated that the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for patients with HCC. Conclusion: This study constructed a Nine-gene risk model by modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C and investigated its effect on the clinical prognosis of HCC. This model may provide important consideration for the therapeutic strategy and prognosis evaluation analysis of patients with HCC.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, m⁶A, m⁵C, prognosis, RNA methylation

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Authors: Ali Nour El Hajj

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Background: The perennial deficiencies of the failure models in the materials field have profoundly and significantly impacted all associated technical fields that depend on accurate failure predictions. Many preeminent and well-known scientists from an earlier era of groundbreaking discoveries attempted to solve the issue of material failure. However, a thorough understanding of material failure has been frustratingly elusive. Objective: The heart of this study is the presentation of a methodology that identifies a newly derived one-parameter criterion as the only general failure theory for noncompressible, homogeneous, and isotropic materials subjected to multiaxial states of stress and various boundary conditions, providing the solution to this longstanding problem. This theory is the counterpart and companion piece to the theory of elasticity and is in a formalism that is suitable for broad application. Methods: Utilizing advanced finite-element analysis, the maximum internal breaking stress corresponding to the maximum applied external force is identified as a unified and universal material failure criterion for determining the structural capacity of any system, regardless of its geometry or architecture. Results: A comparison between the proposed criterion and methodology against design codes reveals that current provisions may underestimate the structural capacity by 2.17 times or overestimate the capacity by 2.096 times. It also shows that existing standards may underestimate the structural capacity by 1.4 times or overestimate the capacity by 2.49 times. Conclusion: The proposed failure criterion and methodology will pave the way for a new era in designing unconventional structural systems composed of unconventional materials.

Keywords: failure criteria, strength theory, failure mechanics, materials mechanics, rock mechanics, concrete strength, finite-element analysis, mechanical engineering, aeronautical engineering, civil engineering

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Jae Hyun Park, Sangmi Chai, Minkyun Kim

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As users spend more time on the Internet, the probability of their personal information being exposed has been growing. This research has a main purpose of investigating factors and examining relationships when Internet users recognize their value of private information with a perspective of an economic asset. The study is targeted on Internet users, and the value of their private information will be converted into economic figures. Moreover, how economic value changes in relation with individual attributes, dealer’s traits, circumstantial properties will be studied. In this research, the changes in factors on private information value responding to different situations will be analyzed in an economic perspective. Additionally, this study examines the associations between users’ perceived risk and value of their personal information. By using the cost-benefit analysis framework, the hypothesis that the user’s sense in private information value can be influenced by individual attributes and situational properties will be tested. Therefore, this research will attempt to provide answers for three research objectives. First, this research will identify factors that affect value recognition of users’ personal information. Second, it provides evidences that there are differences on information system users’ economic value of information responding to personal, trade opponent, and situational attributes. Third, it investigates the impact of those attributes on individuals’ perceived risk. Based on the assumption that personal, trade opponent and situation attributes make an impact on the users’ value recognition on private information, this research will present the understandings on the different impacts of those attributes in recognizing the value of information with the economic perspective and prove the associative relationships between perceived risk and decision on the value of users’ personal information. In order to validate our research model, this research used the regression methodology. Our research results support that information breach experience and information security systems is associated with users’ perceived risk. Information control and uncertainty are also related to users’ perceived risk. Therefore, users’ perceived risk is considered as a significant factor on evaluating the value of personal information. It can be differentiated by trade opponent and situational attributes. This research presents new perspective on evaluating the value of users’ personal information in the context of perceived risk, personal, trade opponent and situational attributes. It fills the gap in the literature by providing how users’ perceived risk are associated with personal, trade opponent and situation attitudes in conducting business transactions with providing personal information. It adds to previous literature that the relationship exists between perceived risk and the value of users’ private information in the economic perspective. It also provides meaningful insights to the managers that in order to minimize the cost of information breach, managers need to recognize the value of individuals’ personal information and decide the proper amount of investments on protecting users’ online information privacy.

Keywords: private information, value, users, perceived risk, online information privacy, attributes

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Authors: C. Gallottini, W. Di Mari, A. Amaddeo, K. Barbaro, A. Dolci, G. Dolci, L. Gallottini, G. Barraco, S. Eramo

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A group of 10 dogs (group A) with Periodontal Disease in the third stage, were subjected to regenerative therapy of periodontal tissues, by use of nano hydroxy apatite (NHA). These animals induced by general anesthesia, where treated by ultrasonic scaling, root planning, and at the end by a mucogingival flap in which it was applied NHA. The flap was closed and sutured with simple steps. Another group of 10 dogs (group B), control group, was treated only by scaling and root planning. No patient was subjected to antibiotic therapy. After three months, a check was made by inspection of the oral cavity, radiography and bone biopsy at the alveolar level. Group A showed a total restitutio ad integrum of the periodontal structures, and in group B still mild gingivitis in 70% of cases and 30% of the state remains unchanged. Numerous experimental studies both in animals and humans have documented that the grafts of porous hydroxyapatite are rapidly invaded by fibrovascular tissue which is subsequently converted into mature lamellar bone tissue by activating osteoblast. Since we acted on the removal of necrotic cementum and rehabilitating the root tissue by polishing without intervention in the ligament but only on anatomical functional interface of cement-blasts, we can connect the positive evolution of the clinical-only component of the cement that could represent this perspective, the only reason that Periodontal Disease become a Cement Disease, while all other clinical elements as nothing more than a clinical pathological accompanying.

Keywords: nanoidroxiaphatite, parodontal disease, cement disease, regenerative therapy

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

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Authors: Siqing Guan, Fumiyo Oshima, Eiji Shimizu, Nozomi Tomita, Toru Takahashi, Hiroaki Kumano

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Risk factors for social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions involve executive attention, emotion regulation, and thought regulation as processes of cognitive dysregulation. Social camouflaging behaviors as strategies used to mask and/or compensate for autism characteristics during social interactions in autism spectrum conditions have also been emphasized. However, the role of cognitive dysregulation and social camouflaging related to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions has not been clarified. Whether these factors are specific to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions or common to social anxiety independent of autism spectrum conditions needs to be clarified. Here, we explored risk factors specific to social anxiety in autism spectrum conditions and general risk factors for social anxiety independent of autism spectrum conditions. From the Japanese participants in early adulthood (age=18~39) of the online survey in Japan, those who exceeded the Japanese version Autism-Spectrum Quotient cutoff (33 points or more )were divided into the autism spectrum conditions group (ASC; N=255, mean age=32.08, SD age=5.16)and those who did not exceed the cutoff were divided into the non-autism spectrum conditions group (Non-ASC; N=255, mean age=31.70, SD age=5.09). Using the Japanese versions of the Social Phobia Scale, the Social Interaction Anxiety Scale, and the Short Fear of Negative Evaluation Scale, a composite score for social anxiety was calculated using a method of principal. We also measured emotional control difficulties using the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale, executive attention using the Effortful Control Scale for Adults, rumination using the Rumination-Reflection Questionnaire, and worry using the Penn State Worry Questionnaire. This study was passed through the review of the Ethics Committee. No conflicts of interest. Multiple regression analysis with forced entry method was used to predict social anxiety in the ASC and non-ASC groups separately, based on executive attention, emotion dysregulation, worry, rumination, and social camouflage. In the ASC group, emotion dysregulation (β=.277, p<.001), worry (β=.162, p<.05), assimilation (β=.308, p<.001) and masking (β=.275, p<.001) were significant predictors of social anxiety (F (7,247) = 45.791, p <.001, R2=.565). In the non-ASC groups,emotion dysregulation (β=.171, p<.05), worry (β=.344，p <.001), assimilation (β=.366,p <.001) and executive attention (β=-.132,p <.05) were significant predictors of social anxiety (F (7,207) =47.333, p <.001, R2=.615).The findings suggest that masking was shown to be a risk factor for social anxiety specific to autism spectrum conditions, while emotion dysregulation, worry, and assimilation were shown to be common risk factors for social anxiety, regardless of autism spectrum conditions. In addition, executive attention is a risk factor for social anxiety without autism spectrum conditions.

Keywords: autism spectrum, cognitive control, social anxiety, social camouflaging

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Devin Doos, Ashley Hughes, Trang Pham, Paul Barach, Rami Ahmed

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Over 115,000 Health Care Workers (HCWs) have died from COVID-19, and millions have been infected while caring for patients. HCWs have filed thousands of safety complaints surrounding safety concerns due to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) shortages, which included concerns around inadequate and PPE reuse. Protocols for donning and doffing PPE remain ambiguous, lacking an evidence-base, and often result in wide deviations in practice. PPE donning and doffing protocol deviations commonly result in self-contamination but have not been thoroughly addressed. No evidence-driven protocols provide guidance on protecting HCW during periods of PPE reuse. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine safety-related threats and risks to Health Care Workers (HCWs) due to the reuse of PPE among Emergency Department personnel. Method: We conducted a prospective observational study to examine the risks of reusing PPE. First, ED personnel were asked to don and doff PPE in a simulation lab. Each participant was asked to don and doff PPE five times, according to the maximum reuse recommendation set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Each participant was videorecorded; video recordings were reviewed and coded independently by at least 2 of the 3trained coders for safety behaviors and riskiness of actions. A third coder was brought in when the agreement between the 2 coders could not be reached. Agreement between coders was high (81.9%), and all disagreements (100%) were resolved via consensus. A bowtie risk assessment chart was constructed analyzing the factors that contribute to increased risks HCW are faced with due to PPE use and reuse. Agreement amongst content experts in the field of Emergency Medicine, Human Factors, and Anesthesiology was used to select aspects of health care that both contribute and mitigate risks associated with PPE reuse. Findings: Twenty-eight clinician participants completed five rounds of donning/doffing PPE, yielding 140 PPE donning/doffing sequences. Two emerging threats were associated with behaviors in donning, doffing, and re-using PPE: (i) direct exposure to contaminant, and (ii) transmission/spread of contaminant. Protective behaviors included: hand hygiene, not touching the patient-facing surface of PPE, and ensuring a proper fit and closure of all PPE materials. 100% of participants (n= 28) deviated from the CDC recommended order, and most participants (92.85%, n=26) self-contaminated at least once during reuse. Other frequent errors included failure to tie all ties on the PPE (92.85%, n=26) and failure to wash hands after a contamination event occurred (39.28%, n=11). Conclusions: There is wide variation and regular errors in how HCW don and doffPPE while including in reusing PPE that led to self-contamination. Some errors were deemed “recoverable”, such as hand washing after touching a patient-facing surface to remove the contaminant. Other errors, such as using a contaminated mask and accidentally spreading to the neck and face, can lead to compound risks that are unique to repeated PPE use. A more comprehensive understanding of the contributing threats to HCW safety and complete approach to mitigating underlying risks, including visualizing with risk management toolsmay, aid future PPE designand workflow and space solutions.

Keywords: bowtie analysis, health care, PPE reuse, risk management

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Daniel K. Gameti

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The paper explored the effects of active and passive entrepreneurship education methods on the venture creation intention of undergraduate students in Ghana. The study also examined the moderating effect of gender and negative personal characteristics (risk tolerance, stress tolerance and fear of failure) on students’ venture creation intention. Deductive approach was used in collecting quantitative data from 555 business students from one public university and one private university through self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the dominant method of entrepreneurship education used in Ghana. Further, structural equation model was used to test four hypotheses. The results of the study show that the dominant method of education used in Ghana was lectures and the least method used was field trip. The study further revealed that passive methods of education are less effective compared to active methods which were statistically significant in venture creation intention among students. There was also statistical difference between male and female students’ venture creation intention but stronger among male students and finally, the only personal characteristics that influence students’ intention was stress tolerance because risk tolerance and fear of failure were statistically insignificant.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, Ghana, moderating variables, venture creation intention, undergraduate students

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Authors: Abhijit Trailokya

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD’s) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Many clinical trials have demonstrated that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering, reduces the incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events across a broad spectrum of patients at risk. Guidelines for the management of patients at risk have been established in Europe and North America. The guidelines have advocated progressively lower LDL-C targets and more aggressive use of statin therapy. In Indian patients, comprehensive data on dyslipidemia management and its treatment outcomes are inadequate. There is lack of information on existing treatment patterns, the patient’s profile being treated, and factors that determine treatment success or failure in achieving desired goals. Purpose: The present study was planned to determine the lipid control status in high-risk dyslipidemic patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy in India. Methods: This cross-sectional, non-interventional, single visit program was conducted across 483 sites in India where male and female patients with high-risk dyslipidemia aged 18 to 65 years who had visited for a routine health check-up to their respective physician at hospital or a healthcare center. Percentage of high-risk dyslipidemic patients achieving adequate LDL-C level (< 70 mg/dL) on lipid-lowering therapy and the association of lipid parameters with patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, and lipid lowering drugs were analysed. Results: 3089 patients were enrolled in the study; of which 64% were males. LDL-C data was available for 95.2% of the patients; only 7.7% of these patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid-lowering therapy, which may be due to inability to follow therapeutic plans, poor compliance, or inadequate counselling by physician. The physician’s lack of awareness about recent treatment guidelines also might contribute to patients’ poor adherence, not explaining adequately the benefit and risks of a medication, not giving consideration to the patient’s life style and the cost of medication. Statin was the most commonly used anti-dyslipidemic drug across population. The higher proportion of patients had the comorbid condition of CVD and diabetes mellitus across all dyslipidemic patients. Conclusion: As per the European Society of Cardiology guidelines the ideal LDL-C levels in high risk dyslipidemic patients should be less than 70%. In the present study, 7.7% of the patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid lowering therapy which is very less. Most of high risk dyslipidemic patients in India are on suboptimal dosage of statin. So more aggressive and high dosage statin therapy may be required to achieve target LDLC levels in high risk Indian dyslipidemic patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, LDL-C, lipid lowering drug, statins

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Authors: John Gaber, Youssef Ahmed, Hossam A.Gabbar, Jing Ren

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Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operators have a large responsibility on their shoulders. They must allow the plant to generate a high amount of energy while inspecting and maintaining the safety of the plant. This type of occupation comes with high amounts of mental fatigue, and a small mistake can have grave consequences. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method of gathering the electromagnetic waves emitted by a human brain. We propose a safety system by monitoring brainwaves for signs of mental fatigue. This requires an analysis of the tasks and mental models of the NPP operator, as well as risk factors on mental fatigue and attention that NPP operators face when performing their tasks. The brain waves generated from experiencing mental fatigue can then be monitored for. These factors are analyzed, developing an EEG-based monitoring system, which aims to alert NPP operators when levels of mental fatigue and attention start affecting their performance in task completion.

Keywords: EEG, power plant operator, psychology, task analysis

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: Shweh Fern Loo, Jun Yin Ong, Than Zaw Oo

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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common serious condition of bilateral lung infiltrates that develops secondary to various underlying conditions such as diseases or injuries. ARDS with severe hypercapnia is associated with higher ICU mortality and morbidity. Venovenous Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) support has been established to avert life-threatening hypoxemia and hypercapnic respiratory failure despite optimal conventional mechanical ventilation. However, VV-ECMO is relatively not advisable in particular groups of patients, especially in multi-organ failure, advanced age, hemorrhagic complications and irreversible central nervous system pathology. We presented a case of a 79-year-old Chinese lady without any pre-existing lung disease admitted to our hospital intensive care unit (ICU) after acute presentation of breathlessness and chest pain. After extensive workup, she was diagnosed with rapidly progressing acute interstitial pneumonia with ARDS and hypercapnia respiratory failure. The patient received lung protective strategies of mechanical ventilation and neuromuscular blockage therapy as per clinical guidelines. However, hypercapnia respiratory failure was refractory, and she was deemed not a good candidate for VV-ECMO support given her advanced age and high vasopressor requirements from shock. Alternative therapy with extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R) was considered and implemented. The patient received 12 days of ECCO2R paired with muscle paralysis, optimization of lung-protective mechanical ventilation and dialysis. Unfortunately, the patient still had refractory hypercapnic respiratory failure with dual vasopressor support despite prolonged therapy. Given failed and futile medical treatment, the family opted for withdrawal of care, a conservative approach, and comfort care, which led to her demise. The effectivity of extracorporeal CO2 removal may depend on disease burden, involvement and severity of the disease. There is insufficient data to make strong recommendations about its benefit-risk ratio for ECCO2R devices, and further studies and data would be required. Nonetheless, ECCO2R can be considered an alternative treatment for refractory hypercapnic respiratory failure patients who are unsuitable for initiating venovenous ECMO.

Keywords: extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP), hypercapnic respiratory failure

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Authors: Visa I. Tyakaray, M. Abdulaziz, O. Badmus, N. Karaye, M. Dalhat, A. Shehu, I. Bello, T. Hussaini, S. Akar, G. Effah, P. Nguku

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Introduction: Nigeria has recorded outbreaks of meningitis in the past, being in the meningitis belt. A multi-state outbreak of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) from Neisseria meningitides occurred in 2017 involving 24 states, and Kano State reported its first two confirmed CSM cases on 22nd March, 2017. We conducted the outbreak investigation to characterize the outbreak, determine its associated risk factors and institute appropriate control measures. Method: We conducted an unmatched Case-control study with ratio 1:2. A case was defined as any person with sudden onset of fever (>38.5˚C rectal or 38.0˚C axillary) and one of the following: neck stiffness, altered consciousness or bulging fontanelle in toddlers while a control was defined as any person who resides around the case such as family members, caregivers, neighbors, and healthcare personnel. We reviewed and validated line list and conducted active case search in health facilities and neighboring communities. Descriptive, bivariate, stratified and multivariate analysis were performed. Laboratory confirmation was by Latex agglutination and/or Culture. Results: We recruited 48 cases with median age of 11 years (1 month – 65 years), attack rate was 2.4/100,000 population with case fatality rate of 8%; 34 of 44 local government areas were affected.On stratification, age was found to be a confounder. Independent factors associated with the outbreak were age (Adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR =6.58; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) =2.85-15.180, history of Vaccination (AOR=0.37; 95% CI=0.13-0.99) and history of travel (AOR=10.16; (1.99-51.85). Laboratory results showed 22 positive cases for Neisseria meningitides types C and A/Y. Conclusion: Major risk factors associated with this outbreak were age (>14years), not being vaccinated and history of travel. We sensitized communities and strengthened case management. We recommended immediate reactive vaccination and enhanced surveillance in bordering communities.

Keywords: cerebrospinal, factors, Kano-Nigeria, meningitis, risk

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Authors: Yu Chen

Abstract:

This paper investigates the influence of flaw on failure process of rock-like material under uniaxial compression. In laboratory, the uniaxial compression tests of intact specimens and a series of specimens within single flaw were conducted. The inclination angle of flaws includes 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75° and 90°. Based on the laboratory tests, the corresponding models of numerical simulation were built and loaded in PFC2D. After analysing the crack initiation and failure modes, deformation field, and energy mechanism for both laboratory tests and numerical simulation, it can be concluded that the influence of flaws on the failure process is determined by its inclination. The characteristic stresses increase as flaw angle rising basically. The tensile cracks develop from gentle flaws (α ≤ 30°) and the shear cracks develop from other flaws. The propagation of cracks changes during failure process and the failure mode of a specimen corresponds to the orientation of the flaw. A flaw has significant influence on the transverse deformation field at the middle of the specimen, except the 75° and 90° flaw sample. The input energy, strain energy and dissipation energy of specimens show approximate increase trends with flaw angle rising and it presents large difference on the energy distribution.

Keywords: failure pattern, particle deformation field, energy mechanism, PFC

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