Search results for: regional forest

Authors: Riffat Sultana Pathan, Waheed Ali Panhwar, Muhammad Saeed Wagan

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Tettigonioidea are phytophagous insects damaging agricultural crops, forest, fruit orchards, berry shrubs, and grasses. The material was collected from different agricultural fields of rice, sugarcane, wheat, maize surrounding by different grasses. Beside this, forest, hilly areas, semi-desert and desert regions were also inspected time to time. All material was captured, killed and stored by using the standard entomological method. As a result of extensive survey fair numbers were captured from the different climatic zone of country. Seven sub-families of Tettigonioidea viz: Pseudophyllinae, Phaneropterinae, Conocephalinae, Tettigoniinae, Hexacentrinae, Mecopodinae and Decticinae came in collection. This fauna contributes 29 new records to Pakistan and 5 new species to science. Beside this, a brief description of each supra-generic category of Tettigonioidea along with photographs and synonymy is also documented. In addition to this, detailed list of host plants from Pakistan was also composed. This study provides important data for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Tettigonioidea biodiversity conservation and grassland restoration in Pakistan.

Keywords: agriculture, conocephalinae, pest, phaneropterinae, tettigoniidae

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Authors: Yanto Santosa, Yohanna Dalimunthe, Intan Purnamasari

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Expansion of Indonesia oil palm plantations has contributed significantly to the national revenue annually and has been able to absorb millions of workers. Behind all these positive contributions, such expansion was accused as the cause of the decline in wildlife populations such as mammal and herpetofauna. Research was carried out in 8 oil palm plantations in Riau Province of Indonesia from March to April 2016, to determine the impacts of oil palm plantations on mammal and herpetofauna biodiversity. Direct observation was conducted simultaneously equipped with camera traps placed (for mammal) on various land cover types. For mammals' survey, line transect method was used, and for herpetofauna, Visual Encounter Survey (VES) method was used. Landsat imagery was used to interpret land cover types 3 years prior to the establishment of the oil palm plantations. The study revealed that one year before the oil palm plantations was established, most the land covers were comprised of 49.96% rubber plantations, 35.99% secondary forest, 10.17% bare land, 3.03% shrubs and 0.84% mixed dryland farming-shrubs. Based on the number of species found, it was identified that on the average, mammal diversity in 4 of 8 oil palm plantations, showed a decrease by 14.29%-100%, whereas 2 plantations did not experienced any changes in the number of species and one plantation showed an increased in the number of mammal species. The plantations that experienced a reduction in the number of mammal’s diversity were previously dominated covered by secondary forest (40%) and rubber plantation (40%), while those experiencing no changes in the number of species were also dominated by secondary forest. The area with an increased number of mammal species was historically dominated by rubber plantation. On the contrary, significant results were shown for herpetofauna, where all study sites showed a sharp increase in the number of herpetofauna species, by 100%-225.00%.

Keywords: herpetofauna, impact, mammal, oil palm plantations

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Authors: Sani Shehu, Mohd Afandi Salleh

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Parliament is a law making body which provided at national, state, province and territorial level playing a parliamentary role of representing people, law making, peace, and conflict resolution, ratifying and incorporating international convention into municipal law. Parliaments are created globally to give solid legitimacy to good governance under democratic system of government, and the representatives must be elected by the people, so the ECOWAS parliament is entitled to have this legitimacy, where members must be elected by adult people among the citizens of ECOWAS member states. This paper will discuss on the roles that ECOWAS parliament plays for the achievement of regional integration and economic goals of development and cooperation in the sub-region.

Keywords: ECOWAS parliament, composition, competence, power

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Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal

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Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.

Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest

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Authors: Jang-Hwan Jo

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Implementing sustainable island forest management policies requires categorizing islands into groups based on key indicators and establishing a consistent management system. Building on the results of previous studies, a typology of forested islands was established: Type 1 – connected islands with high natural vegetation cover; Type 2 – connected islands with moderate natural vegetation cover; Type 3 – connected islands with low natural vegetation cover; Type 4 – unconnected islands with high natural vegetation cover; Type 5 – unconnected islands with moderate natural vegetation cover; and Type 6 – unconnected islands with low natural vegetation cover. An AHP analysis was conducted with island forest experts to identify priority ecosystem services (ESs) for the sustainable management of each island type. In connected islands, provisioning services (natural resources, natural medicines, etc.) assumed greater importance than regulating (erosion control) and supporting services (genetic diversity). In unconnected islands, particularly those with a small proportion of natural vegetation, regulating services (erosion control) requires greater emphasis in management. Considering that Type 3 islands require urgent management as connectivity to the mainland makes natural vegetation-sparse island forest ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, the land-use scoring method was carried out on Jin-do, a Type 3 forested island. Comparisons between AHP-derived expert demand for key island ESs and the spatial distribution of ES supply potential revealed mismatches between the supply and demand of erosion control, freshwater supply, and habitat provision. The framework developed in this study can help guide decisions and indicate where interventions should be focused to achieve sustainable island management.

Keywords: ecosystem service, sustainable management, forested islands, Analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Marzouk Benali, Jawad Jeaidi, Behrang Mansoornejad, Olumoye Ajao, Banafsheh Gilani, Nima Ghavidel Mehr

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Canadian forest industry is seeking to identify and implement transformational strategies for enhanced financial performance through the emerging bioeconomy or more specifically through the concept of the biorefinery. For example, processing forest residues or surplus of biomass available on the mill sites for the production of biofuels, biochemicals and/or biomaterials is one of the attractive strategies along with traditional wood and paper products and cogenerated energy. There are many possible process-product biorefinery pathways, each associated with specific product portfolios with different levels of risk. Thus, it is not obvious which unique strategy forest industry should select and implement. Therefore, there is a need for analytical and design tools that enable evaluating biorefinery strategies based on a set of criteria considering a perspective of sustainability over the short and long terms, while selecting the existing core products as well as selecting the new product portfolio. In addition, it is critical to assess the manufacturing flexibility to internalize the risk from market price volatility of each targeted bio-based product in the product portfolio, prior to invest heavily in any biorefinery strategy. The proposed paper will focus on introducing a systematic methodology for designing integrated biorefineries using process systems engineering tools as well as a multi-criteria decision making framework to put forward the most effective biorefinery strategies that fulfill the needs of the forest industry. Topics to be covered will include market analysis, techno-economic assessment, cost accounting, energy integration analysis, life cycle assessment and supply chain analysis. This will be followed by describing the vision as well as the key features and functionalities of the I-BIOREF software platform, developed by CanmetENERGY of Natural Resources Canada. Two industrial case studies will be presented to support the robustness and flexibility of I-BIOREF software platform: i) An integrated Canadian Kraft pulp mill with lignin recovery process (namely, LignoBoost™); ii) A standalone biorefinery based on ethanol-organosolv process.

Keywords: biorefinery strategies, bioproducts, co-production, multi-criteria decision making, tool

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Authors: Mohd Zamri Osman, Mohd Aizaini Maarof, Mohd Foad Rohani

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Human skin detection recognized as the primary step in most of the applications such as face detection, illicit image filtering, hand recognition and video surveillance. The performance of any skin detection applications greatly relies on the two components: feature extraction and classification method. Skin color is the most vital information used for skin detection purpose. However, color feature alone sometimes could not handle images with having same color distribution with skin color. A color feature of pixel-based does not eliminate the skin-like color due to the intensity of skin and skin-like color fall under the same distribution. Hence, the statistical color analysis will be exploited such mean and standard deviation as an additional feature to increase the reliability of skin detector. In this paper, we studied the effectiveness of statistical color feature for human skin detection. Furthermore, the paper analyzed the integrated color and texture using eight classifiers with three color spaces of RGB, YCbCr, and HSV. The experimental results show that the integrating statistical feature using Random Forest classifier achieved a significant performance with an F1-score 0.969.

Keywords: color space, neural network, random forest, skin detection, statistical feature

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Authors: Ruchirek Ratchaburi, W. Kevin. Hicks, Christopher S. Malley, Lisa D. Emberson

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Air pollution problems in Thailand have improved over the last few decades, but in some areas, concentrations of coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀) are above health and regulatory guidelines. It is, therefore, useful to investigate how PM₁₀ varies across Thailand, what conditions cause this variation, and how could PM₁₀ concentrations be reduced. This research uses data collected by the Thailand Pollution Control Department (PCD) from 17 monitoring sites, located across 12 provinces, and obtained between 2011 and 2015 to assess PM₁₀ concentrations and the conditions that lead to different levels of pollution. This is achieved through exploration of air mass pathways using trajectory analysis, used in conjunction with the monitoring data, to understand the contribution of different months, an hour of the day and source regions to annual PM₁₀ concentrations in Thailand. A focus is placed on locations that exceed the national standard for the protection of human health. The analysis shows how this approach can be used to explore the influence of biomass burning on annual average PM₁₀ concentration and the difference in air pollution conditions between Northern and Southern Thailand. The results demonstrate the substantial contribution that open biomass burning from agriculture and forest fires in Thailand and neighboring countries make annual average PM₁₀ concentrations. The analysis of PM₁₀ measurements at monitoring sites in Northern Thailand show that in general, high concentrations tend to occur in March and that these particularly high monthly concentrations make a substantial contribution to the overall annual average concentration. In 2011, a > 75% reduction in the extent of biomass burning in Northern Thailand and in neighboring countries resulted in a substantial reduction not only in the magnitude and frequency of peak PM₁₀ concentrations but also in annual average PM₁₀ concentrations at sites across Northern Thailand. In Southern Thailand, the annual average PM₁₀ concentrations for individual years between 2011 and 2015 did not exceed the human health standard at any site. The highest peak concentrations in Southern Thailand were much lower than for Northern Thailand for all sites. The peak concentrations at sites in Southern Thailand generally occurred between June and October and were associated with air mass back trajectories that spent a substantial proportion of time over the sea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand prior to arrival at the monitoring sites. The results show that emissions reductions from biomass burning and forest fires require action on national and international scales, in both Thailand and neighboring countries, such action could contribute to ensuring compliance with Thailand air quality standards.

Keywords: annual average concentration, long-range transport, open biomass burning, particulate matter

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Authors: Chales Mumbere Musavandalo, Lucie B. Mugherwa, Gloire Kayitoghera Mulondi, Naanson Bweya, Muyisa Musongora, Francis Lelo Nzuzi

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The landscape of the Okapi Wildlife Reserve in the Democratic Republic of Congo harbors a large community of Mbuti indigenous peoples, often described as the guardians of nature. Living in and off the forest has long been a sustainable strategy for preserving natural resources. This strategy, seen as a form of eco-responsible citizenship, draws upon ethnobotanical knowledge passed down through generations. However, these indigenous communities are facing socio-cultural upheaval, which impacts their traditional way of life. This study aims to assess the relationship between the Mbuti indigenous people’s way of life and the preservation of the Okapi Wildlife Reserve. The study was conducted under the assumption that, despite socio-cultural upheavals, the forest and its resources remain central to the Mbuti way of life. The study was conducted in six encampments, three of which were located inside the forest and two in the anthropized zone. The methodological approach initially involved group interviews in six Mbuti encampments. The objective of these interviews was to determine how these people perceive the various services provided by the forest and the resources obtained from this habitat. The technique of using pebbles was adopted to adapt the exercise of weighting services and resources to the understanding of these people. Subsequently, the study carried out ethnobotanical surveys to identify the wood resources frequently used by these communities. This survey was completed in third position by a transect inventory of 1000 m length and 25 m width in order to enhance the understanding of the abundance of these resources around the camps. Two transects were installed in each camp to carry out this inventory. Traditionally, the Mbuti communities sustain their livelihood through hunting, fishing, gathering for self-consumption, and basketry. The Manniophyton fulvum-based net remains the main hunting tool. The primary forest and the swamp are two habitats from which these peoples derive the majority of their resources. However, with the arrival of the Bantu people, who introduced agriculture based on cocoa production, the Mbuti communities started providing services to the Bantu in the form of labor and field guarding. This cultural symbiosis between Mbute and Bantu has also led to non-traditional practices, such as the use of hunting rifles instead of nets and fishing nets instead of creels. The socio-economic and ecological environment in which Mbuti communities live is changing rapidly, including the resources they depend on. By incorporating the time factor into their perception of ecosystem services, only their future (p-value = 0, 0,121), the provision of wood for energy (p-value = 0,1976), and construction (p-value = 0,2548) would be closely associated with the forest in their future. For other services, such as food supply, medicine, and hunting, adaptation to Bantu customs is conceivable. Additionally, the abundance of wood used by the Mbuti people has been high around encampments located in intact forests and low in those in anthropized areas. The traditional way of life of the Mbuti communities is influenced by the cultural symbiosis, reflected in their habits and the availability of resources. The land tenure security of Mbuti areas is crucial to preserve their tradition and forest biodiversity. Conservation efforts in the Okapi Wildlife Reserve must consider this cultural dynamism and promote positive values for the flagship species. The oversight of subsistence hunting is imperative to curtail the transition of these communities to poaching.

Keywords: traditional life, conservation, Indigenous people, cultural symbiosis, forest

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Authors: Triza Edwar Fawzi Deif

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In the process of urbanization in China, new rural construction is on the ascendant, which is becoming more and more popular. Under the driving effect of rural urbanization, the house pattern and tectonic methods of traditional vernacular houses have shown great differences from the family structure and values of contemporary peasant families. Therefore, it is particularly important to find a prototype, form and strategy to make a balance between the traditional memory and modern functional requirements. In order for research to combine the regional culture with modern life, under the situation of the current batch production of new rural residences, Badie village, in Zhejiang province, is taken as the case. This paper aims to put forward a prototype which can not only meet the demand of modern life but also ensure the continuation of traditional culture and historical context for the new rural dwellings design. This research not only helps to extend the local context in the construction of the new site but also contributes to the fusion of old and new rural dwellings in the old site construction. Through the study and research of this case, the research methodology and results can be drawn as reference for the new rural construction in other areas.

Keywords: steel slag, co-product, primary coating, steel aggregate capital, rural areas, rural planning, rural governance village, design strategy, new rural dwellings, regional context, regional expression

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Authors: Suxiang Yu

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As an early childhood teacher in a socially and economically highly disadvantaged suburb in regional QLD, the author endeavors to find out effective positive approaches to behavior management for a classroom that is overwhelmed with challenging behaviors. After evaluating the first-hand data collected from the action research, the author summarizes a few innovative, positive behavior management strategies. The research also implies that behavior management opportunities are actually great social and emotional teachable moments, and by tapping into those teachable moments effectively, the teacher and children will have a closer relationship.

Keywords: action research, behavior management, classroom strategies, social and emotional teaching

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Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

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Authors: Paulo Cumbe

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This work analyzes the economic and environmental impact of the exploitation of forest resources on populations and their sustainability in the regions where it occurs. There is an intensive and continuous activity of charcoal production, in the Massingir and Mabalane districts, in Gaza, Mozambique, to supply the most used fuel that is used by the population of the capital city, Maputo. Charcoal production is one of the sources of income for several families. However, it causes a negative environmental impact on biodiversity. We have analyzed different studies carried out in these communities that measure the speed, the level, and the impact of deforestation involving different actors, to deepen our understanding of this issue. The results of these studies reveal that the degraded area in five years would need one hundred years to be restored, which is unsustainable from an environmental point of view it is. Populations seek new areas for the same practice to maintain their livelihood, progressing with ecosystem degradation and increasing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It is believed that environmental education, creation, and dissemination of new forms of charcoal production that are more profitable and less aggressive to the environment and forest repopulation actions need to be carried out to guarantee the sustainable development of the populations in these regions.

Keywords: deforestation, emissions, sustainability, charcoal

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Authors: Umer Ayyaz Aslam Sheikh

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Non Apis bee like the bumblebees are important due to their utilization of diverse floral plants and belong to the richest and most conspicuous flower visitors in alpine, temperate and arctic environments for pollination in both natural and managed cropping systems. These bees generally construct underground nests and habitat devastation and crumbling are major causes for their decline in nature. The present study was conducted in the Himalayan range of Azad Jammu, and Kashmir, Pakistan, surveys were conducted during the early spring season to observe maximum Bombus haemorrhoidalis queens (emerged after winter diapauses) searching for a nesting place. Whole study area was grouped into four types of landscape (open field, relatively open , relatively wooded and wooded), five habitat types (field, field boundary, pasture forest boundary and forest) and these habitat further grouped into four different patch types including withered grass, new grass, tussocks and stones and moss. Maximum nest seeking bumblebee queens preferred relatively open field landscape followed by open fields and forest boundaries. Field boundaries were recorded as most proffered habitat along with withered grasses for nesting sites of B. haemorrhoidalis queens. A wooded landscape with stone and moss type of patches were found least preferred nesting sites. This study will be helpful in the future for conservation program this for declining bumblebee species in this region. It will also provide the baseline for the conservation of other bumblebee species of the world.

Keywords: bumblebee, Bombus haemorrhoidalis, habitat, nest seeking preference, Pakistan

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Authors: Virany Diana, Martono Tri Utomo, Risa Etika

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Background: Shock is one severe condition that can be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. Preterm infants are very susceptible to shock caused by many complications such as asphyxia, patent ductus arteriosus, intra ventricle haemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, persistent pulmonal hypertension of the newborn, and septicaemia. Limited hemodynamic monitoring for early detection of shock causes delayed intervention and comprises the outcomes. Clinical parameters still used in neonatal shock detection, such as Capillary Refill Time, heart rate, cold extremity, and urine production. Blood pressure is most frequently used to evaluate preterm's circulation, but hypotension indicates uncompensated shock. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is known as a noninvasive tool for monitoring and detecting the state of inadequate tissue perfusion. Muscle oxygen saturation shows decreased cardiac output earlier than systemic parameters of tissue oxygenation when cerebral regional oxygen saturation is still stabilized by autoregulation. However, to our best knowledge, until now, no study has analyzed the decrease of muscle oxygen regional saturation (mRSO₂) and the ratio of muscle and cerebral oxygen regional saturation (mRSO₂/cRSO₂) by NIRS in preterm with shock. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the decrease of mRSO₂ and ratio of muscle to cerebral oxygen regional saturation (mRSO₂/cRSO₂) by NIRS in preterm with shock. Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on preterm infants with 28-34 weeks gestational age, admitted to the NICU of Dr. Soetomo Hospital from November to January 2022. Patients were classified into two groups: shock and non-shock. The diagnosis of shock is based on clinical criteria (tachycardia, prolonged CRT, cold extremity, decreased urine production, and MAP Blood Pressure less than GA in weeks). Measurement of mRSO₂ and cRSO₂ by NIRS was performed by the doctor in charge when the patient came to NICU. Results: We enrolled 40 preterm infants. The initial conventional hemodynamic parameter as the basic diagnosis of shock showed significant differences in all variables. Preterm with shock had higher mean HR (186.45±1.5), lower MAP (29.8±2.1), and lower SBP (45.1±4.28) than non-shock children, and most had a prolonged CRT. The patients’ outcome was not a significant difference between shock and non-shock patients. The mean mRSO₂ in the shock and non-shock groups were 33,65 ± 11,32 vs. 69,15 ± 3,96 (p=0.001), and the mean ratio mRSO₂/cRSO₂ 0,45 ± 0,12 vs. 0,84 ± 0,43 (p=0,001), were significantly different. The mean cRSO₂ in the shock and non-shock groups were 71,60 ± 4,90 vs. 81,85 ± 7,85 (p 0.082), not significantly different. Conclusion: The decrease of mRSO₂ and ratio of mRSO₂/cRSO₂ can differentiate between shock and non-shock in the preterm infant when cRSO₂ is still normal.

Keywords: preterm infant, regional muscle oxygen saturation, regional cerebral oxygen saturation, NIRS, shock

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Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

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Authors: Emanuel Koseos

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Data-Driven Decision Making (DDDM) refers to making decisions that are based on historical data in order to inform practice, develop strategies and implement policies that benefit organizational settings. In educational technology, DDDM facilitates the implementation of differential educational learning approaches such as Educational Data Mining (EDM) and Competency-Based Education (CBE), which commonly target university classrooms. There is a current need for DDDM models applied to middle and secondary schools from a concern for assessing the needs, progress and performance of students and educators with respect to regional standards, policies and evolution of curriculums. To address these concerns, we propose a DDDM reference model developed using educational key process initiatives as inputs to a machine learning framework implemented with statistical software (SAS, R) to provide a best-practices, complex-free and automated approach for educators at their regional level. We assessed the efficiency of the model over a six-year period using data from 45 schools and grades K-12 in the Langley, BC, Canada regional school district. We concluded that the model has wider appeal, such as business learning systems.

Keywords: competency-based learning, data-driven decision making, machine learning, secondary schools

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as regional climate model to dynamically downscale the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model projection for the regional climate change impact on air quality–related meteorological conditions in the upper northern Thailand. The analyses were focused on meteorological variables that potentially impact on the regional air quality such as sea level pressure, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, wind speed and ventilation. Comparisons were made between the present (1990–2009) and future (2045–2064) climate downscaling results during majority air pollution season (dry season, January-April). Analyses showed that the sea level pressure will be stronger in the future, suggesting more stable atmosphere. Increases in temperature were obvious observed throughout the region. Decreases in surface wind and PBLH were predicted during air pollution season, indicating weaker ventilation rate in this region. Consequently, air quality-related meteorological variables were predicted to change in almost part of the upper northern Thailand, yielding a favorable meteorological condition for pollutant accumulation in the future.

Keywords: climate change, climate impact, air quality, air pollution, Thailand

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Authors: Runlian Miao, Wei Xie, Hong Zhang

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In China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is regarded as a strategically important region because itenjoys highest development in economic development, opening up, innovative capacity and andpopulation. Integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasingly emphasized by the government recently years. In 2014, it has ascended to one of the national great development strategies by Chinese central government. In 2015, Coordinated Development Planning Compendium for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was approved. Such decisions signify Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would lead innovation-driven economic development in China. As an essential factor to achieve national innovation-driven development and significant part of regional industry chain, the optimization of science and technology resources allocation will exert great influence to regional economic transformation and upgrading and innovation-driven development. However, unbalanced distribution, poor sharing of resources and existence of information isolated islands have contributed to different interior innovation capability, vitality and efficiency, which impeded innovation and growth of the whole region. Under such a background, to integrate and vitalize regional science and technology resources and then establish high-end, fast-responding and precise innovation service system basing on regional resources, would be of great significance for integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and even handling of unbalanced and insufficient development problem in China. This research uses the method of literature review and field investigation and applies related theories prevailing home and abroad, centering service path of science and technology resources for innovation. Based on the status quo and problems of regional development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, theoretically, the author proposed to combine regional economics and new economic geography to explore solution to problem of low resource allocation efficiency. Further, the author puts forward to applying digital map into resource management and building a platform for information co-building and sharing. At last, the author presents the thought to establish a specific service mode of ‘science and technology plus digital map plus intelligence research plus platform service’ and suggestion on co-building and sharing mechanism of 3 (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei ) plus 11 (important cities in Hebei Province).

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, science and technology resources, innovation service, digital platform

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Authors: Davood Karimipour

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Since long ago, Russia has been one of the most influential actors in regional equations in South West Asia. The geographic affinity of its vital interests with Western Asia has caused Moscow to have a high sensitivity to the balance of power in the Middle East, as its role in the Syrian crisis clearly demonstrated the importance. In recent years, Moscow has tried to use the energy diplomacy tool in maintaining the balance of power between the major powers in the region. The paper, based on the qualitative case study method, investigates how Russia’s energy diplomacy plays a role in the balance of regional forces in the Middle East, studying the country’s conduct towards Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel. The hypothesis presented that Russia, using energy tools, is trying to push the regional powers toward cooperation in order to increase the influence in the region, increase power in global markets, and controlling the US to restore power balance in the region. Its cooperation in the Iranian gas industry, the country’s relations with Saudis in the framework of OPEC, cooperation with the Turkish Kurds and the presence in the Israeli gas industry are an example of these Russian energy diplomacy initiatives in West Asia, which is the common point of the Moscow approach to South West Asia.

Keywords: Russia, balance of power, energy diplomacy, Middle East

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Authors: Lawrence Ngalim

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The paucity of entrepreneurial finance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can plausibly be tied to her comparatively less-developed capital markets, which potentially hurts entrepreneurial activities. The high rate of informality in SSA worsens information asymmetry, which restricts the supply of funds in a heavily bank-led environment. In this paper, we ask whether the adoption of recent technological improvements in delivering financial services, such as crowdfunding, assists the financially excluded within Africa. Secondly, we investigate the individual determinants of crowdfunding, such as income, level of education, demographics, culture/trust, and the effects of crowdfunding on households’ usage of formal financial services. The paper discusses the long-term policy implications of this particular type of fintech in achieving financial inclusion within the regional bloc and its advantage for Africa-Agenda-2063.

Keywords: fintech, banks, entrepreneurship, regional integration

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Authors: Mosaad Hamouda, Kamal Khalaf, Zaker Mousa

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National projects are considered Egypt's future vision in investing its various resources and the best way to bring about a developmental renaissance that constitutes a quantum leap because of its developmental impact on the planning regions, which it achieves in attracting and localizing investments to achieve urban development, and what this has a noticeable impact on dividing those regions in order to achieve a developmental balance or at least reduce the severity of the disparities between them, by measuring the impact of these projects, which appear in the per capita share of the various developmental variables, and also analyzing global and local experiences so that a balanced division of the country’s regions can be reached, and the research finds a set of planning foundations that are compatible with the settlement of these national projects in the future.

Keywords: national projects, regional development, division of regions, development disparities

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Authors: Deniz Sari, Selahattin İncecik, Nesimi Ozkurt

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Surface ozone, which named as one of the most critical pollutants in the 21th century, threats to human health, forest and vegetation. Specifically, in rural areas surface ozone cause significant influences on agricultural productions and trees. In this study, in order to understand to the surface ozone levels in rural areas we focus on the north-western side of Biga Peninsula which covers by the mountainous and forested area. Ozone concentrations were measured for the first time with passive sampling at 10 sites and two online monitoring stations in this rural area from 2013 and 2015. Using with the daytime hourly O3 measurements during light hours (08:00–20:00) exceeding the threshold of 40 ppb over the 3 months (May, June and July) for agricultural crops, and over the six months (April to September) for forest trees AOT40 (Accumulated hourly O3 concentrations Over a Threshold of 40 ppb) cumulative index was calculated. AOT40 is defined by EU Directive 2008/50/EC to evaluate whether ozone pollution is a risk for vegetation, and is calculated by using hourly ozone concentrations from monitoring systems. In the present study, we performed the trajectory analysis by The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to follow the long-range transport sources contributing to the high ozone levels in the region. The ozone episodes observed between 2013 and 2015 were analysed using the HYSPLIT model developed by the NOAA-ARL. In addition, the cluster analysis is used to identify homogeneous groups of air mass transport patterns can be conducted through air trajectory clustering by grouping similar trajectories in terms of air mass movement. Backward trajectories produced for 3 years by HYSPLIT model were assigned to different clusters according to their moving speed and direction using a k-means clustering algorithm. According to cluster analysis results, northerly flows to study area cause to high ozone levels in the region. The results present that the ozone values in the study area are above the critical levels for forest and vegetation based on EU Directive 2008/50/EC.

Keywords: AOT40, Biga Peninsula, HYSPLIT, surface ozone

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Authors: M. B. Abdullahi, S. M. Gumel

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This study was carried out to analyze and describe biodiversity changes in representative communities around Maladumba Lake and Forest Reserve (MLFR), Bauchi, Nigeria. Primary and secondary data were collected through formal and informal interviews of key informants and survey of local communities and government records. There has been a change in biodiversity; some of the cropping systems have become nonexistent whereas others have developed. The main aspect of the changes has been the decline of species diversity due to degradation and over utilization. The changes have also been positive through the introduction and intensification of cropping system. Options have been open for people to manipulate the cropping systems in order to efficiently use the limited resources. Farmers have opted not only to intensify agricultural practices but also to deliberately restore some of the lost species. Reduction in the number of animals per household, adoption of new techniques of land management, changes in the type of crops cultivated and intensive use of the available resources are some of the indicators describing farmers’ efforts to cope with the changes. Sustainability of the farming system and biodiversity has been enhanced through peoples’ efforts that include planting trees and use of fertilizers.

Keywords: cropping systems, historical trends, household, land management, sustainability

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Authors: Sara Fioretti

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During the Middle Bronze Age, southern Italy underwent a reorganisation of social structures where local cultures, such as the sub-Apennine and Nuragic, flourished and participated in maritime trade. This paper explores the socio-economic relationships, in both cross-cultural and potentially inter-regional settings, present within the archaeological repertoire of the southern Italian Late Bronze Age (LBA 1600 -1050 BCE). The emergence of economic relations within the connectivity of the regional settlements is explored through ceramic contexts found in the case studies Punta di Zambrone, Broglio di Trebisacce, and Nuraghe Antigori. This paper discusses the findings of a statistical and theoretical approach from an ongoing study in relation to the Mediterranean’s characterisation as a period dominated by Mycenaean influence. This study engages with a theoretical bricolage of Social Networks Entanglement, and Assertive Objects Theory to address the selective and assertive dynamics evident in the cross-cultural trade exchanges as well as consider inter-regional dynamics. Through this intersection of theory and statistical analysis, the case studies establish a small percentage of pottery as imported, whilst assertive productions have a relatively higher quantity. Overall, the majority still adheres to regional Italian traditions. Therefore, we can dissect the rhizomatic relationships cultivated by the Italian coasts and Mycenaeans and their roles within their networks through the intersection of theoretical and statistical analysis. This research offers a new perspective on the complex nature of the Late Bronze Age relational structures.

Keywords: late bronze age, mediterranean archaeology, exchanges and trade, frequency distribution of ceramic assemblages, social network theory, rhizomatic exchanges

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Oluwatobi Emmanuel Olaniyi, Babafemi George Ogunjemite

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The high rate of infrastructural development in Ikogosi warm spring towards harnessing her great ecotourism potentials calls for a serious concern, as more forest areas are been opened up for public access and the landscape is modified. On this note, we investigated the implication of ecotourism development on the floristic composition and forest structure in Ikogosi. The study aimed at identifying the past and present status of infrastructural development, assessing and comparing the floristic composition and structure of the built- up/ recreational areas and undisturbed forested areas, to infer on the impact of ecotourism development on the study site. We conducted stakeholder interview and field observation to identify the past and present status of infrastructural development respectively. A total of ten quadrants were employed in the vegetation assessment to characterize the woody tree species composition, diameter at breast height and height, to obtain mean indices characterizing each part of the site. These indices were compared using T – test analysis. A total of 49 different woody tree species distributed in 21 families were identified in the built-in/ recreational areas while 67 different woody tree species belonging to 25 families were recorded in the undeveloped forested areas. Although, the latter has a higher mean diameter at breast height of woody trees, it was not significantly different from the former (T-test = -0.74, p = 0.46). On the contrary, the built-up area had a higher mean trees height than the undeveloped areas, but the difference was not statistically significant (T-test= 1.04, p = 0.30). Despite these, the slight reduction in richness and diversity of the woody tree species in the built- up/ recreational areas implies mitigating the negative effects of infrastructural development on the warm spring's vegetation.

Keywords: ecosystem services, forest structure, vegetation assessment, warm-spring

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Authors: Abdullah Al Farwan, Ya Zhang

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In today’s educational arena, it is critical to understand educational data and be able to evaluate important aspects, particularly data on student achievement. Educational Data Mining (EDM) is a research area that focusing on uncovering patterns and information in data from educational institutions. Teachers, if they are able to predict their students' class performance, can use this information to improve their teaching abilities. It has evolved into valuable knowledge that can be used for a wide range of objectives; for example, a strategic plan can be used to generate high-quality education. Based on previous data, this paper recommends employing data mining techniques to forecast students' final grades. In this study, five data mining methods, Decision Tree, JRip, Naive Bayes, Multi-layer Perceptron, and Random Forest with wrapper feature selection, were used on two datasets relating to Portuguese language and mathematics classes lessons. The results showed the effectiveness of using data mining learning methodologies in predicting student academic success. The classification accuracy achieved with selected algorithms lies in the range of 80-94%. Among all the selected classification algorithms, the lowest accuracy is achieved by the Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm, which is close to 70.45%, and the highest accuracy is achieved by the Random Forest algorithm, which is close to 94.10%. This proposed work can assist educational administrators to identify poor performing students at an early stage and perhaps implement motivational interventions to improve their academic success and prevent educational dropout.

Keywords: classification algorithms, decision tree, feature selection, multi-layer perceptron, Naïve Bayes, random forest, students’ academic performance

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Gatot Dwi Hendro, Hayyan ul Haq

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This work aims to explore the strategy in embodying the ecological validity in creating the sustainability of public policy, particularly in strengthening the green economy in Indonesia. This green economy plays an important role in supporting the national development in Indonesia, as it is a part of the national policy that posits the primary priority in Indonesian governance. The green economy refers to the national development covering strategic natural resources, such as mining, gold, oil, coal, forest, water, marine, and the other supporting infrastructure for products and distribution, such as fabrics, roads, bridges, and so forth. Thus, all activities in those national development should consider the sustainability. This sustainability requires the strong commitment of the national and regional government, as well as the local governments to put the ecology as the main requirement for issuing any policy, such as licence in mining production, and developing and building new production and supporting infrastructures for optimising the national resources. For that reason this work will focus on the strategy how to embody the ecological values and norms in the public policy. In detail, this work will offer the method, i.e. legal techniques, in visualising and embodying the norms and public policy that valid ecologically. This ecological validity is required in order to maintain and sustain our collective life.

Keywords: ecological validity, sustainable development, coherence, Indonesian Pancasila values, environment, marine

Procedia PDF Downloads 459