Search results for: quasi-maximum likelihood estimate

Authors: Luis Amador Jimenez, Md. Shohel Amin

Abstract:

Pavement performance models are based on projections of observed traffic loads, which makes uncertain to study funding strategies in the long run if history does not repeat. Neural networks can be used to estimate deterioration rates but the learning rate and momentum have not been properly investigated, in addition, economic evolvement could change traffic flows. This study addresses both issues through a case study for roads of Montreal that simulates traffic for a period of 50 years and deals with the measurement error of the pavement deterioration model. Travel demand models are applied to simulate annual average daily traffic (AADT) every 5 years. Accumulated equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) are calculated from the predicted AADT and locally observed truck distributions combined with truck factors. A back propagation Neural Network (BPN) method with a Generalized Delta Rule (GDR) learning algorithm is applied to estimate pavement deterioration models capable of overcoming measurement errors. Linear programming of lifecycle optimization is applied to identify M&R strategies that ensure good pavement condition while minimizing the budget. It was found that CAD 150 million is the minimum annual budget to good condition for arterial and local roads in Montreal. Montreal drivers prefer the use of public transportation for work and education purposes. Vehicle traffic is expected to double within 50 years, ESALS are expected to double the number of ESALs every 15 years. Roads in the island of Montreal need to undergo a stabilization period for about 25 years, a steady state seems to be reached after.

Keywords: pavement management system, traffic simulation, backpropagation neural network, performance modeling, measurement errors, linear programming, lifecycle optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Sangbaek Park, Seungju Lee, Soo-Won Chae

Abstract:

Unstable shoes are known to strengthen lower extremity muscles and improve gait ability and to change the user’s gait pattern. The change in gait pattern affects human body enormously because the walking is repetitive and steady locomotion in daily life. It is possible to estimate the joint motion including joint moment, force and inertia effect using kinematic and kinetic analysis. However, the change of internal stress at the articular cartilage has not been possible to estimate. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the internal stress of human body during gait with unstable shoes. In this study, FE analysis was combined with motion capture experiment to obtain the boundary condition and loading condition during walking. Motion capture experiments were performed with a participant during walking with normal shoes and with unstable shoes. Inverse kinematics and inverse kinetic analysis was performed with OpenSim. The joint angle and muscle forces were estimated as results of inverse kinematics and kinetics analysis. A detailed finite element (FE) lower extremity model was constructed. The joint coordinate system was added to the FE model and the joint coordinate system was coincided with OpenSim model’s coordinate system. Finally, the joint angles at each phase of gait were used to transform the FE model’s posture according to actual posture from motion capture. The FE model was transformed into the postures of three major phases (1st peak of ground reaction force, mid stance and 2nd peak of ground reaction force). The direction and magnitude of muscle force were estimated by OpenSim and were applied to the FE model’s attachment point of each muscle. Then FE analysis was performed to compare the stress at knee cartilage during gait with normal shoes and unstable shoes.

Keywords: finite element analysis, gait analysis, human model, motion capture

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Seyed Mohsen Jameii

Abstract:

Wireless underwater sensor networks are a type of sensor networks that are located in underwater environments and linked together by acoustic waves. The application of these kinds of network includes monitoring of pollutants (chemical, biological, and nuclear), oil fields detection, prediction of the likelihood of a tsunami in coastal areas, the use of wireless sensor nodes to monitor the passing submarines, and determination of appropriate locations for anchoring ships. This paper proposes a boundary coverage algorithm for intrusion detection in underwater sensor networks. In the first phase of the proposed algorithm, optimal deployment of nodes is done in the water. In the second phase, after the employment of nodes at the proper depth, clustering is executed to reduce the exchanges of messages between the sensors. In the third phase, the algorithm of "divide and conquer" is used to save energy and increase network efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: boundary coverage, clustering, divide and ‎conquer, underwater sensor nodes

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Hyppolite Aignon, Souleymane Yorou, Martin Ryberg, Anneli Svanholm

Abstract:

Climate change and human actions cause the extinction of wild mushrooms. In Benin, the diversity of fungi is large and may still contain species new to science but the inventory effort remains low and focuses on particularly edible species (Russula, Lactarius, Lactifluus, and also Amanita). In addition, inventories have started recently and some groups of fungi are not sufficiently sampled, however, the degradation of fungal habitat continues to increase and some species are already disappearing. (Yorou and De Kesel, 2011), however, the degradation of fungi habitat continues to increase and some species may disappear without being known. This genus (Inocybe) overlooked has a worldwide distribution and includes more than 700 species with many undiscovered or poorly known species worldwide and particularly in tropical Africa. It is therefore important to orient the inventory to other genera or important families such as Inocybe (Fungi, Agaricales) in order to highlight their diversity and also to know their phylogenetic positions with a combined approach of gene regions. This study aims to evaluate the species richness and phylogenetic position of Inocybe species and affiliated taxa in West Africa. Thus, in North Benin, we visited the Forest Reserve of Ouémé Supérieur, the Okpara forest and the Alibori Supérieur Forest Reserve. In the center, we targeted the Forest Reserve of Toui-Kilibo. The surveys have been carried during the raining season in the study area meaning from June to October. A total of 24 taxa were collected, photographed and described. The DNA was extracted, the Polymerase Chain Reaction was carried out using primers (ITS1-F, ITS4-B) for Internal transcribed spacer (ITS), (LROR, LWRB, LR7, LR5) for nuclear ribosomal (LSU), (RPB2-f5F, RPB2-b6F, RPB2- b6R2, RPB2-b7R) for RNA polymerase II gene (RPB2) and sequenced. The ITS sequences of the 24 collections of Inocybaceae were edited in Staden and all the sequences were aligned and edited with Aliview v1.17. The sequences were examined by eye for sufficient similarity to be considered the same species. 13 different species were present in the collections. In addition, sequences similar to the ITS sequences of the thirteen final species were searched using BLAST. The nLSU and RPB2 markers for these species have been inserted in a complete alignment, where species from all major Inocybaceae clades as well as from all continents except Antarctica are present. Our new sequences for nLSU and RPB2 have been manually aligned in this dataset. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using the RAxML v7.2.6 maximum likelihood software. Bootstrap replications have been set to 100 and no partitioning of the dataset has been performed. The resulting tree was viewed and edited with FigTree v1.4.3. The preliminary tree resulting from the analysis of maximum likelihood shows us that these species coming from Benin are much diversified and are distributed in four different clades (Inosperma, Inocybe, Mallocybe and Pseudosperma) on the seven clades of Inocybaceae but the phylogeny position of 7 is currently known. This study marks the diversity of Inocybe in Benin and the investigations will continue and a protection plan will be developed in the coming years.

Keywords: Benin, diversity, Inocybe, phylogeny placement

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki

Abstract:

In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.

Keywords: zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non negative integer sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: F. Fatoye, C. E. Mbada, T. Gebrye, A. O. Ogunsola, C. Fatoye, O. Oyewole

Abstract:

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) such as low back pain (LBP), cervical spondylosis (CSPD), sprain, osteoarthritis (OA), and post immobilization stiffness (PIS) have a major impact on individuals, health systems and society in terms of morbidity, long-term disability, and economics. This study estimated the direct and indirect costs of common MSDs in Osun State, Nigeria. A review of medical charts for adult patients attending Physiotherapy Outpatient Clinic at the Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospitals Complex, Osun State, Nigeria between 2009 and 2018 was carried out. The occupational class of the patients was determined using the International Labour Classification (ILO). The direct and indirect costs were estimated using a cost-of-illness approach. Physiotherapy related health resource use, and costs of the common MSDs, including consultation fee, total fee charge per session, costs of consumables were estimated. Data were summarised using descriptive statistics mean and standard deviation (SD). Overall, 1582 (Male = 47.5%, Female = 52.5%) patients with MSDs population with a mean age of 47.8 ± 25.7 years participated in this study. The mean (SD) direct costs estimate for LBP, CSPD, PIS, sprain, OA, and other conditions were $18.35 ($17.33), $34.76 ($17.33), $32.13 ($28.37), $35.14 ($44.16), $37.19 ($41.68), and $15.74 ($13.96), respectively. The mean (SD) indirect costs estimate of LBP, CSPD, PIS, sprain, OA, and other MSD conditions were $73.42 ($43.54), $140.57 ($69.31), $128.52 ($113.46), sprain $140.57 ($69.31), $148.77 ($166.71), and $62.98 ($55.84), respectively. Musculoskeletal disorders contribute a substantial economic burden to individuals with the condition and society. The unacceptable economic loss of MSDs should be reduced using appropriate strategies. Further research is required to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of strategies to improve health outcomes of patients with MSDs. The findings of the present study may assist health policy and decision makers to understand the economic burden of MSDs and facilitate efficient allocation of healthcare resources to alleviate the burden associated with these conditions in Nigeria.

Keywords: economic burden, low back pain, musculoskeletal disorders, real-world

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Paul Bigala, Samuel Oladipo, Steven Adebowale

Abstract:

This study examines factors influencing knowledge of HIV/AIDS Prevention Practices and Transmission (KHAPPT) among young undergraduate students (15-24 years). Knowledge composite index was computed for 820 randomly selected students. Chi-square, ANOVA, and multinomial logistic regression were used for the analyses (α=.05). The overall mean knowledge score was 16.5±3.4 out of a possible score of 28. About 83% of the students have undergone HIV test, 21.0% have high KHAPPT, 18% said there is cure for the disease, 23% believed that asking for condom is embarrassing and 11.7% said it is safe to share unsterilized sharp objects with friends or family members. The likelihood of high KHAPPT was higher among students who have had HIV test (OR=3.314; C.I=1.787-6.145, p<0.001) even when other variables were used as control. The identified predictors of high KHAPPT were; ever had HIV test, faculty, and ever used any HIV/AIDS prevention services. North-West University Mafikeng should intensify efforts on the HIV/AIDS awareness program on the campus.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS knowledge, undergraduate students, HIV testing, Mafikeng

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Mohamed Adnan Landolsi, Ali F. Almutairi

Abstract:

The paper addresses the problem of line-of-sight (LOS) vs. non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation link identification in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless networks, which is necessary for improving the accuracy of radiolocation and positioning applications. A LOS/NLOS likelihood hypothesis testing approach is applied based on exploiting distinctive statistical features of the channel impulse response (CIR) using parameters related to the “skewness” of the CIR and its root mean square (RMS) delay spread. A log-normal fit is presented for the probability densities of the CIR parameters. Simulation results show that different environments (residential, office, outdoor, etc.) have measurable differences in their CIR parameters’ statistics, which is then exploited in determining the nature of the propagation channels. Correct LOS/NLOS channel identification rates exceeding 90% are shown to be achievable for most types of environments. Additional improvement is also obtained by combining both CIR skewness and RMS delay statistics.

Keywords: UWB, propagation, LOS, NLOS, identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Nhi Phuoc Thuc Le

Abstract:

Cross-cultural adaptability —one’s readiness to interact with people who are different from oneself or to adapt to living in another culture— is essential to the well-being and experience of international students. This research was set out to find the correlation between certain personality traits of international students and their likelihood to adapt to the U.S., the host culture. The study used Qualtrics, an online survey, to investigate the relationships between international students’ social self-efficacy, ego-resiliency, cultural intelligence, Big Five personality traits and cross-cultural adaptability (sociocultural and psychological adaptability). The data were analysed with the software SPSS. The findings of this quantitative study show that high scores in ego-resiliency, social self-efficacy, cultural intelligence and personality traits (including extraversion, agreeableness, intellect and conscientiousness) are correlated with better cross-cultural adaptation. Meanwhile, the Big-Five trait neuroticism is correlated with lower cross-cultural adaptability. Such insight is suggested to help international students be better prepared for an immersion into the US culture.

Keywords: Big Five, cross-cultural adaptability, cultural intelligence, ego-resiliency, international students, personality, self-efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Lin Xie, Yang Wang

Abstract:

An extensive body of research studies suggest that students, teachers, and supervisors can enhance the likelihood of reaching their goals by improving their communication skills. It is highly important to learn how and when to provide different kinds of feedback, e.g. anticipatory, corrective and positive) will gain better result and higher morale. The purpose of this mixed methods research is twofold: 1) To find out what factors affect effective communication among different stakeholders and how these factors affect student learning 2) What are the good practices for improving communication among different stakeholders and improve student achievement. This presentation first begins with an introduction to the recent research on Marshall’s Nonviolent Communication Techniques (NVC), including four important components: observations, feelings, needs, requests. These techniques can be effectively applied at all levels of communication. To develop an in-depth understanding of the relationship among different techniques within, this research collected, compared, and combined qualitative and quantitative data to better improve communication and support student learning.

Keywords: communication, education, language learning, goal achievement, academic success

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

Abstract:

We have conducted the optimal synthesis of root-mean-squared objective filter to estimate the state vector in the case if within the observation channel with memory the anomalous noises with unknown mathematical expectation are complement in the function of the regular noises. The synthesis has been carried out for linear stochastic systems of continuous-time.

Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Kassaye Balkew Workagegn, Gunnar Klemetsdal, Hans Magnus Gjøen

Abstract:

In this study, the first objective was to investigate whether non-lethal or non-invasive methods, utilizing body measurements, could be used to efficiently predict fillet weight and fillet yield for a complete diallel cross of three Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) strains collected from three Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes, Lakes Ziway, Koka and Chamo. The second objective was to estimate heritability of body weight, actual and predicted fillet traits, as well as genetic correlations between these traits. A third goal was to estimate additive, reciprocal, and heterosis effects for body weight and the various fillet traits. As in females, early sexual maturation was widespread, only 958 male fish from 81 full-sib families were used, both for the prediction of fillet traits and in genetic analysis. The prediction equations from body measurements were established by forward regression analysis, choosing models with the least predicted residual error sums of squares (PRESS). The results revealed that body measurements on live Nile tilapia is well suited to predict fillet weight but not fillet yield (R²= 0.945 and 0.209, respectively), but both models were seemingly unbiased. The genetic analyses were carried out with bivariate, multibreed models. Body weight, fillet weight, and predicted fillet weight were all estimated with a heritability ranged from 0.23 to 0.28, and with genetic correlations close to one. Contrary, fillet yield was only to a minor degree heritable (0.05), while predicted fillet yield obtained a heritability of 0.19, being a resultant of two body weight variables known to have high heritability. The latter trait was estimated with genetic correlations to body weight and fillet weight traits larger than 0.82. No significant differences among strains were found for their additive genetic, reciprocal, or heterosis effects, while total heterosis effects were estimated as positive and significant (P < 0.05). As a conclusion, prediction of prediction of fillet weight based on body measurements is possible, but not for fillet yield.

Keywords: additive, fillet traits, genetic correlation, heritability, heterosis, prediction, reciprocal

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

Abstract:

Eritrea is a country in the East of Africa. The country is a neighbor of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Sudan and is bordered by the Red Sea. The country declared its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Thus, Eritrea has a lot of commonalities with the Northern Part of Ethiopia's tradition, religion, and languages. Many economists suggested that Eritrea is in a very strategic position for world trade roots and has an impact on geopolitics. This study focused on identifying the most important factor in boosting the Eritrean Economy. The paper collected big secondary data from the World Bank, International Trade and Tariff Data (WTO), East African Community (EAC), Ethiopian Statistical Agency (ESA), and the National Statistics Office (Eritrea). Economists consider economic and population growth in determining trade belts in East Africa. One of the most important Trade Belt that will potentially boost the Eritrean economy is the root of Eritrea (Massawa)->Eritea, (Asmara)->Tigray, (Humora)->Tigray, (Dansha)-> Gondar-> Gojjam-> Benshangual Gumuz => {Oromia, South Sudan}->Uganda. The estimate showed that this is one of the biggest trade roots in East Africa and has a participation of more than 150 million people. We employed various econometric analyses to predict the GDP of Eritrea, considering the future trade belts in East Africa. The result showed that the economy of Eritrea from the Trade Belt will have an elasticity estimate of 65.87% of the GDP of Ethiopia, 3.32% of the GDP of South Sudan, and 0.09% of the GDP of Uganda. The result showed that the existence of war has an elasticity of -93% to the GDP of the country. Thus, if Eritrea wants to strengthen its economy from the East African Trade Belt, the country needs to permanently avoid war in the region. Essentially, the country needs to establish a collaborative platform with the Northern part of Ethiopia (Tigray). Thus, establishing a mutual relationship with Tigray will boost the Eritrean economy. In that regard, Eritrean scholars and policymakers need to work on establishing the East African Trade Belt to boost their economy.

Keywords: Eritrea, east Africa trade belt, GDP, cointegration analysis, critical path analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Ku Aina Afiqah Ku Adzman, Manmeet Mahinderjit Singh, Zarul Fitri Zaaba

Abstract:

NFC operates on low-range 13.56 MHz frequency within a distance from 4cm to 10cm, and the applications can be categorized as touch and go, touch and confirm, touch and connect, and touch and explore. NFC applications are vulnerable to various security and privacy attacks such due to its physical nature; unprotected data stored in NFC tag and insecure communication between its applications. This paper aims to determine the likelihood of security risks happening in an NFC technology and application. We present an NFC technology taxonomy covering NFC standards, types of application and various security and privacy attack. Based on observations and the survey presented to evaluate the risk assessment within the touch and go application demonstrates two security attacks that are high risks namely data corruption and DOS attacks. After the risks are determined, risk countermeasures by using AHP is adopted. The guideline and solutions to these two high risks, attacks are later applied to a secure NFC-enabled Smartphone Attendance System.

Keywords: Near Field Communication (NFC), risk assessment, multi-criteria decision making, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Changqiao Wu, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, ways of modeling dynamic measurement systems are discussed. Specially, for linear system with single-input single-output, it could be modeled with shallow neural network. Then, gradient based optimization algorithms are used for searching the proper coefficients. Besides, method with normal equation and second order gradient descent are proposed to accelerate the modeling process, and ways of better gradient estimation are discussed. It shows that the mathematical essence of the learning objective is maximum likelihood with noises under Gaussian distribution. For conventional gradient descent, the mini-batch learning and gradient with momentum contribute to faster convergence and enhance model ability. Lastly, experimental results proved the effectiveness of second order gradient descent algorithm, and indicated that optimization with normal equation was the most suitable for linear dynamic models.

Keywords: dynamic system modeling, neural network, normal equation, second order gradient descent

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: A. Satty, H. Mwambi

Abstract:

Much clinical trials data-based research are characterized by the unavoidable problem of dropout as a result of missing or erroneous values. This paper aims to review some of the various techniques to address the dropout problems in longitudinal clinical trials. The fundamental concepts of the patterns and mechanisms of dropout are discussed. This study presents five general techniques for handling dropout: (1) Deletion methods; (2) Imputation-based methods; (3) Data augmentation methods; (4) Likelihood-based methods; and (5) MNAR-based methods. Under each technique, several methods that are commonly used to deal with dropout are presented, including a review of the existing literature in which we examine the effectiveness of these methods in the analysis of incomplete data. Two application examples are presented to study the potential strengths or weaknesses of some of the methods under certain dropout mechanisms as well as to assess the sensitivity of the modelling assumptions.

Keywords: incomplete longitudinal clinical trials, missing at random (MAR), imputation, weighting methods, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

Abstract:

The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Dianelys Vega, Carlos Magluta, Ney Roitman

Abstract:

The simulation of loads induced by walking people in civil engineering structures is still challenging It has been the focus of considerable research worldwide in the recent decades due to increasing number of reported vibration problems in pedestrian structures. One of the most important key in the designing of slender structures is the Human-Structure Interaction (HSI). How moving people interact with structures and the effect it has on their dynamic responses is still not well understood. To rely on calibrated pedestrian models that accurately estimate the structural response becomes extremely important. However, because of the complexity of the pedestrian mechanisms, there are still some gaps in knowledge and more reliable models need to be investigated. On this topic several authors have proposed biodynamic models to represent the pedestrian, whether these models provide a consistent approximation to physical reality still needs to be studied. Therefore, this work comes to contribute to a better understanding of this phenomenon bringing an experimental validation of a pedestrian walking model and a Human-Structure Interaction model. In this study, a bi-dimensional bipedal walking model was used to represent the pedestrians along with an interaction model which was applied to a prototype footbridge. Numerical models were implemented in MATLAB. In parallel, experimental tests were conducted in the Structures Laboratory of COPPE (LabEst), at Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Different test subjects were asked to walk at different walking speeds over instrumented force platforms to measure the walking force and an accelerometer was placed at the waist of each subject to measure the acceleration of the center of mass at the same time. By fitting the step force and the center of mass acceleration through successive numerical simulations, the model parameters are estimated. In addition, experimental data of a walking pedestrian on a flexible structure was used to validate the interaction model presented, through the comparison of the measured and simulated structural response at mid span. It was found that the pedestrian model was able to adequately reproduce the ground reaction force and the center of mass acceleration for normal and slow walking speeds, being less efficient for faster speeds. Numerical simulations showed that biomechanical parameters such as leg stiffness and damping affect the ground reaction force, and the higher the walking speed the greater the leg length of the model. Besides, the interaction model was also capable to estimate with good approximation the structural response, that remained in the same order of magnitude as the measured response. Some differences in frequency spectra were observed, which are presumed to be due to the perfectly periodic loading representation, neglecting intra-subject variabilities. In conclusion, this work showed that the bipedal walking model could be used to represent walking pedestrians since it was efficient to reproduce the center of mass movement and ground reaction forces produced by humans. Furthermore, although more experimental validations are required, the interaction model also seems to be a useful framework to estimate the dynamic response of structures under loads induced by walking pedestrians.

Keywords: biodynamic models, bipedal walking models, human induced loads, human structure interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Shurui Bai, Biyun Huang, Khe Foon Hew

Abstract:

Gamification is defined as the use of game design elements in non-game contexts. The primary purpose of using gamification in an educational context is to engage students in school activities such that their likelihood of completion is increased. But how actually effective is gamification in improving student learning? In order to answer this question, this paper provides a systematic review of prior research studies on gamification in K-12 and university contexts limited to computer science discipline. Unlike other published gamification review works, we specifically analyzed comparison-based studies in quasi-experiment, historical control, and randomization rather than studies with mere anecdotal or phenomenological results. The main purpose for this is to discuss possible causal effects of gamified practices on student performance, behavior change, and perceptual skills following an integrative model. Implications for practice are discussed, along with several suggestions for future research studies.

Keywords: computer science, gamification, learning performance, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Yehia Manawi, Ahmad Kayvanifard

Abstract:

Membrane distillation is an emerging technology which has been used to produce freshwater and purify different types of aqueous mixtures. Qatar is an arid country where almost 100% of its freshwater demand is supplied through the energy-intensive thermal desalination process. The country’s need for water has reached an all-time high which stipulates finding an alternative way to augment freshwater without adding any drastic affect to the environment. The objective of this paper was to investigate the potential of using the industrial low grade waste heat to produce freshwater using membrane distillation. The main part of this work was conducting a heat audit on selected Qatari chemical industries to estimate the amounts of freshwater produced if such industrial waste heat were to be recovered. By the end of this work, the main objective was met and the heat audit conducted on the Qatari chemical industries enabled us to estimate both the amounts of waste heat which can be potentially recovered in addition to the amounts of freshwater which can be produced if such waste heat were to be recovered. By the end, the heat audit showed that around 605 Mega Watts of waste heat can be recovered from the studied Qatari chemical industries which resulted in a total daily production of 5078.7 cubic meter of freshwater. This water can be used in a wide variety of applications such as human consumption or industry. The amount of produced freshwater may look small when compared to that produced through thermal desalination plants; however, one must bear in mind that this water comes from waste and can be used to supply water for small cities or remote areas which are not connected to the water grid. The idea of producing freshwater from the two widely-available wastes (thermal rejected brine and waste heat) seems promising as less environmental and economic impacts will be associated with freshwater production which may in the near future augment the conventional way of producing freshwater currently being thermal desalination. This work has shown that low grade waste heat in the chemical industries in Qatar and perhaps the rest of the world can contribute to additional production of freshwater using membrane distillation without significantly adding to the environmental impact.

Keywords: membrane distillation, desalination, heat recovery, environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Maedeh Shojaeizadeh, Amirreza Yeganegi

Abstract:

Nowadays many people lose their lives due to cardiovascular diseases. Inappropriate food habits and lack of exercise expedite deposit process of fatty substances on inner surface of blood arteries. This abnormal lump disturbs uniform blood flow and reduces oxygen delivery to active organs. This work presents a numerical simulation of Non-Newtonian blood flow in a stenosis vessel. The vessel is considered as two dimensional channel and plaque area is modelled as a homogenous porous medium. To simulate blood flow reaction around stenosis region, we use C++ code and solve coupled Cauchy, Darcy, governing continuity and energy equations. The analyses results show that viscosity power (n) plays an important role in flow separation and the size of the eddy at the downstream edge of the plaque. It is also observed that with increasing (n) value, temperature discontinuity and likelihood of vessel rupture declined.

Keywords: blood flow, computational fluid dynamic, porosity, power law fluid

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Aliseydi Bozkurt

Abstract:

Objectives: Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the most common benign disease, and prostate cancer (PC) is malign disease of the prostate gland. Transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUS-bx) is one of the most important diagnostic tools in PC diagnosis. Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider prostate specific antigen density (PSAD), f/t PSA Ratio, an estimate of prostate volume. Method: We retrospectively studied 269 patients who had a prostate specific antigen (PSA) score of 4 or who had suspected rectal examination at any PSA level and received TRUS-bx between January 2015 and June 2018 in our clinic. TRUS-bx was received by 12 experienced urologists with 12 quadrants. Prostate volume was calculated prior to biopsy together with TRUS. Patients were classified as malignant and benign at the end of pathology. Age, PSA value, prostate volume in transrectal ultrasonography, corpuscle biopsy, biopsy pathology result, the number of cancer core and Gleason score were evaluated in the study. The success rates of PV, PSAD, and f/tPSA were compared in all patients and those with PSA 2.5-10 ng/mL and 10.1-30 ng/mL tp foresee prostate cancer. Result: In the present study, in patients with PSA 2.5-10 ng/ml, PV cut-off value was 43,5 mL (n=42 < 43,5 mL and n=102 > 43,5 mL) while in those with PSA 10.1-30 ng/mL prostate volüme (PV) cut-off value was found 61,5 mL (n=31 < 61,5 mL and n=36 > 61,5 mL). Total PSA values in the group with PSA 2.5-10 ng/ml were found lower (6.0 ± 1.3 vs 6.7 ± 1.7) than that with PV < 43,5 mL, this value was nearly significant (p=0,043). In the group with PSA value 10.1-30 ng/mL, no significant difference was found (p=0,117) in terms of total PSA values between the group with PV < 61,5 mL and that with PV > 61,5 mL. In the group with PSA 2.5-10 ng/ml, in patients with PV < 43,5 mL, f/t PSA value was found significantly lower compared to the group with PV > 43,5 mL (0.21 ± 0.09 vs 0.26 ± 0.09 p < 0.001 ). Similarly, in the group with PSA value of 10.1-30 ng/mL, f/t PSA value was found significantly lower in patients with PV < 61,5 mL (0.16 ± 0.08 vs 0.23 ± 0.10 p=0,003). In the group with PSA 2.5-10 ng/ml, PSAD value in patients with PV < 43,5 mL was found significantly higher compared to those with PV > 43,5 mL (0.17 ± 0.06 vs 0.10 ± 0.03 p < 0.001). Similarly, in the group with PSA value 10.1-30 ng/mL PSAD value was found significantly higher in patients with PV < 61,5 mL (0.47 ± 0.23 vs 0.17 ± 0.08 p < 0.001 ). The biopsy results suggest that in the group with PSA 2.5-10 ng/ml, in 29 of the patients with PV < 43,5 mL (69%) cancer was detected while in 13 patients (31%) no cancer was detected. While in 19 patients with PV > 43,5 mL (18,6%) cancer was found, in 83 patients (81,4%) no cancer was detected (p < 0.001). In the group with PSA value 10.1-30 ng/mL, in 21 patients with PV < 61,5 mL (67.7%) cancer was observed while only in10 patients (32.3%) no cancer was seen. In 5 patients with PV > 61,5 mL (13.9%) cancer was found while in 31 patients (86.1%) no cancer was observed (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider PSA, f/t PSA Ratio, an estimate of prostate volume. Prostate volume in PC was found lower.

Keywords: prostate cancer, prostate volume, prostate specific antigen, free/total PSA ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

Abstract:

Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Anwar Hussain, Ahmed Imran, Farida Faisal, Fatima Sultana

Abstract:

The present research evaluates a comparative assessment of dividend policy and share price across the South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Sri-Lanka over the period of 2010 to 2014. Academic writers found that dividend policy and share price relationship is not same in south Asian market due to different reasons. Moreover, Panel Models used = for the evaluation of current study. In addition, Redundant fixed effect Likelihood and Hausman test used for determine of Common, Fixed and Random effect model. Therefore Indian market dividend policies play a fundamental role and significant impact on Market Share Prices. Although, present research found that different as compared to previous study that dividend policy have no impact on share price in Sri-Lanka and Pakistan.

Keywords: dividend policy, share price, South Asian countries, panel data analysis, theories and parameters of dividend

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Moses Mwangi, Geert Verbeke, Geert Molenberghs

Abstract:

Cross-over designs are commonly used in randomized clinical trials to estimate efficacy of a new treatment with respect to a reference treatment (placebo or standard). The main advantage of using cross-over design over conventional parallel design is its flexibility, where every subject become its own control, thereby reducing confounding effect. Jones & Kenward, discuss in detail more recent developments in the analysis of cross-over trials. We revisit the simple piecewise linear mixed-effects model, proposed by Mwangi et. al, (in press) for its first application in the analysis of cross-over trials. We compared performance of the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model with two commonly cited statistical models namely, (1) Grizzle model; and (2) Jones & Kenward model, used in estimation of the treatment effect, in the analysis of randomized cross-over trial. We estimate two performance measurements (mean square error (MSE) and coverage probability) for the three methods, using data simulated from the proposed piecewise linear mixed-effects model. Piecewise linear mixed-effects model yielded lowest MSE estimates compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small (Nobs=20) and large (Nobs=600) sample sizes. It’s coverage probability were highest compared to Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models for both small and large sample sizes. A piecewise linear mixed-effects model is a better estimator of treatment effect than its two competing estimators (Grizzle and Jones & Kenward models) in the analysis of cross-over trials. The data generating mechanism used in this paper captures two time periods for a simple 2-Treatments x 2-Periods cross-over design. Its application is extendible to more complex cross-over designs with multiple treatments and periods. In addition, it is important to note that, even for single response models, adding more random effects increases the complexity of the model and thus may be difficult or impossible to fit in some cases.

Keywords: Evaluation, Grizzle model, Jones & Kenward model, Performance measures, Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: K. Kanja, M. Mweemba, K. Malungwa

Abstract:

Due to the rampant population growth coupled with retrenchments currently going on in the Copper mines in Zambia, a number of people are resorting to land clearing for agriculture, illegal settlements as well as charcoal production among other vices. This study aims at assessing the rate of expansion of agricultural fields and illegal settlements in protected areas using remote sensing and Geographic Information System. Zambia’s Mwekera National Forest Reserve was used as a case study. Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique (ISODATA), as well as maximum likelihood, supervised classification on four Landsat images as well as an accuracy assessment of the classifications was performed. Over the period under observation, results indicate annual percentage changes to be -0.03, -0.49 and 1.26 for agriculture, forests and settlement respectively indicating a higher conversion of forests into human settlements and agriculture.

Keywords: geographic information system, land cover change, Landsat TM and ETM+, Mwekera forest reserve, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Naser Ahmadi Sani, Karim Solaimani, Lida Razaghnia, Jalal Zandi

Abstract:

In recent decades, rapid and incorrect changes in land-use have been associated with consequences such as natural resources degradation and environmental pollution. Detecting changes in land-use is one of the tools for natural resource management and assessment of changes in ecosystems. The target of this research is studying the land-use changes in Haraz basin with an area of 677000 hectares in a 15 years period (1996 to 2011) using LANDSAT data. Therefore, the quality of the images was first evaluated. Various enhancement methods for creating synthetic bonds were used in the analysis. Separate training sites were selected for each image. Then the images of each period were classified in 9 classes using supervised classification method and the maximum likelihood algorithm. Finally, the changes were extracted in GIS environment. The results showed that these changes are an alarm for the HARAZ basin status in future. The reason is that 27% of the area has been changed, which is related to changing the range lands to bare land and dry farming and also changing the dense forest to sparse forest, horticulture, farming land and residential area.

Keywords: Haraz basin, change detection, land-use, satellite data

Procedia PDF Downloads 383

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 412