Search results for: proportional hazard model

Authors: S. P. Rana

Abstract:

Objectives: For the manufacture of a very thin strip or a strip with a high-quality finish, the stainless steel sheet that is called billet is re-rolled in re-rolling mill to make stainless steel sheet of 18 gauges. The rolls of re-rolling mill exert tremendous pressure over the sheet and there is likely chance of breaking of stainless steel strip from the sheet. The objective of the study was to minimise the number of accidents in steel re-rolling mills due to ejection of stainless steel strip and to minimize the pollution caused by the pickling process used in these units. Methods: Looking into the high rate of frequency and severity of accidents as well as pollution hazard in re-rolling and pickling mills, it becomes essential to make necessary arrangements for prevention of accidents in such type of industry. The author carried out survey/inspections of a large number of re-rolling and pickling mills and allied units. During the course of inspection, the working of these steel re-rolling and pickling mills was closely studied and monitored. A number of accidents involving re-rolling mills were investigated and subsequently remedial measures to prevent the occurrence of such accidents were suggested. Assessment of occupational safety and health system of these units was carried out and compliance level of the statutory requirements was checked. The workers were medically examined and monitored to ascertain their health conditions. Results: Proper use of safety gadgets by workers, machine guarding and regular training brought down the risk to an acceptable level and discharged effluent pollution was brought down to permissible limits. The fatal accidents have been reduced by 83%. Conclusions: Effective enforcement and implementation of the directions/suggestions given to the managements of such units brought down the no. of accidents to a rational level. The number of fatal accidents has reduced by 83% during the study period. The effective implementation of pollution control device curtailed the pollution level to an acceptable level.

Keywords: re-rolling mill, hazard, accident, health hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies

Keywords: crop yield, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

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Authors: Azimollah Aleshzadeh, Enver Vural Yavuz

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The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps using different data-driven bivariate statistical approaches; namely, entropy weight method (EWM), evidence belief function (EBF), and information content model (ICM), at Uzundere county, Erzurum province, in the north-eastern part of Turkey. Past landslide occurrences were identified and mapped from an interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, and earlier reports as well as by carrying out field surveys. In total, 42 landslide incidence polygons were mapped using ArcGIS 10.4.1 software and randomly split into a construction dataset 70 % (30 landslide incidences) for building the EWM, EBF, and ICM models and the remaining 30 % (12 landslides incidences) were used for verification purposes. Twelve layers of landslide-predisposing parameters were prepared, including total surface radiation, maximum relief, soil groups, standard curvature, distance to stream/river sites, distance to the road network, surface roughness, land use pattern, engineering geological rock group, topographical elevation, the orientation of slope, and terrain slope gradient. The relationships between the landslide-predisposing parameters and the landslide inventory map were determined using different statistical models (EWM, EBF, and ICM). The model results were validated with landslide incidences, which were not used during the model construction. In addition, receiver operating characteristic curves were applied, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined for the different susceptibility maps using the success (construction data) and prediction (verification data) rate curves. The results revealed that the AUC for success rates are 0.7055, 0.7221, and 0.7368, while the prediction rates are 0.6811, 0.6997, and 0.7105 for EWM, EBF, and ICM models, respectively. Consequently, landslide susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility classes, including very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Additionally, the portion of construction and verification landslides incidences in high and very high landslide susceptibility classes in each map was determined. The results showed that the EWM, EBF, and ICM models produced satisfactory accuracy. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps may be useful for future natural hazard mitigation studies and planning purposes for environmental protection.

Keywords: entropy weight method, evidence belief function, information content model, landslide susceptibility mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Rene Jimenez, Sonia E. Ruiz, Miguel A. Orellana

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On 09/19/2017, a Mw = 7.1 intraslab earthquake occurred in Mexico causing the collapse of about 40 buildings. Many of these were 5- or 6-story buildings with soft first story; so, it is desirable to perform a structural fragility analysis of typical structures representative of those buildings and to propose a reliable structural solution. Here, a typical 5-story building constituted by regular R/C moment-resisting frames in the first story and confined masonry walls in the upper levels, similar to the collapsed structures on the 09/19/2017 Mexico earthquake, is analyzed. Three different structural solutions of the 5-story building are considered: S1) it is designed in accordance with the Mexico City Building Code-2004; S2) then, the column dimensions of the first story corresponding to S1 are reduced, and S3) viscous dampers are added at the first story of solution S2. A number of dynamic incremental analyses are performed for each structural solution, using a 3D structural model. The hysteretic behavior model of the masonry was calibrated with experiments performed at the Laboratory of Structures at UNAM. Ten seismic ground motions are used to excite the structures; they correspond to ground motions recorded in intermediate soil of Mexico City with a dominant period around 1s, where the structures are located. The fragility curves of the buildings are obtained for different values of the maximum inter-story drift demands. Results show that solutions S1 and S3 give place to similar probabilities of exceedance of a given value of inter-story drift for the same seismic intensity, and that solution S2 presents a higher probability of exceedance for the same seismic intensity and inter-story drift demand. Therefore, it is concluded that solution S3 (which corresponds to the building with soft first story and energy dissipation devices) can be a reliable solution from the structural point of view.

Keywords: demand hazard analysis, fragility curves, incremental dynamic analyzes, soft-first story, structural capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

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This paper reports the development and application of a 2D depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. K-E and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD, wind park model

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Jui-Ching Chou

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Numerical simulation is a popular method used to evaluate the effects of soil liquefaction on a structure or the effectiveness of a mitigation plan. Many constitutive models (UBCSAND model, PM4 model, SANISAND model, etc.) were presented to model the liquefaction phenomenon. In general, inputs of a constitutive model need to be calibrated against the soil cyclic resistance before being applied to the numerical simulation model. Then, simulation results can be compared with results from simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods. In this article, inputs of the UBCSAND model, a simple elastic-plastic stress-strain model, are calibrated against several popular generic liquefaction triggering curves of simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods via FLAC program. Calibrated inputs can provide engineers to perform a preliminary evaluation of an existing structure or a new design project.

Keywords: calibration, liquefaction, numerical simulation, UBCSAND Model

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Authors: G. O. Avwiri, E. O. Agbalagba, C. P. Ononugbo

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Activity concentrations of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40K) in the soil, sediment and water of oil producing communities in Delta and Rivers States were determined using γ-ray spectrometry. The mean soil/sediment activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore west in Delta state is 40.2±5.1Bqkg-1, 29.9±4.2Bqkg-1 and 361.5±20.0Bqkg-1 respectively, the corresponding values obtained in onshore east1 of Rivers state is 20.9±2.8Bqkg-1, 19.4±2.5Bqkg-1and 260.0±14.1Bqkg-1 respectively. While the mean activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in onshore east2 of Rivers state is 29.3±3.5Bqkg-1, 21.6±2.6Bqkg-1 and 262.1±14.6Bqkg-1 respectively. These values obtained show enhanced NORMs but are well within the world range. All the radiation hazard indices examined in soil have mean values lower than their maximum permissible limits. In drinking water, the obtained average values of226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.4±0.9, 7.3±0.7 and 29.9±2.2Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.5±0.6, 5.1±0.4 and 20.9±2.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 11.3±1.2, 8.5±0.7 and 32.4±3.7Bql-1 respectively for river water in onshore west. For onshore east1, average activity concentration of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 8.3±1.0, 8.6±1.1 and 39.6±3.3Bql-1 respectively for well water, 3.8±0.8, 4.9±0.6 and 35.7±4.1Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 5.5±0.8, 5.4±0.7 and 36.9±3.8Bql-1 respectively for river water. While in onshore east2 average value of 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 10.1±1.1, 8.3±1.0 and 50.0±3.9Bql-1 respectively for well water, 4.7±0.9, 4.0±0.4 and 28.8±3.0Bql-1 respectively for borehole water and 7.7±0.9, 6.1±0.8 and 27.1±2.9Bql-1 respectively for river water and the average activity concentrations in the produced water226Ra, 228Ra and 40K is 5.182.14Bql-1, 6.042.48Bql-1 and 48.7813.67Bql-1 respectively. These values obtained are well above world average values of 1.0, 0.1 and 10Bql-1 for 226Ra, 228Ra and 40K respectively, those of the control site values and most reported values around the world. Though the hazard indices (Raeq, Hex, Hin) examined in water is still within the tolerable level, the committed effective dose estimated are above ICPR 0.1 mSvy-1 permissible limits. The overall results show that soil and sediment in the area are safe radiologically, but the result indicates some level of water pollution in the studied area.

Keywords: radioactivity, soil, sediment and water, Niger Delta, gamma detector

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Authors: Arturo S. Daag, Ira Karrel D. L. San Jose, Mike Gabriel G. Pedrosa, Ken Adrian C. Villarias, Rayfred P. Ingeniero, Cyrah Gale H. Rocamora, Margarita P. Dizon, Roland Joseph B. De Leon, Teresito C. Bacolcol

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The province of Leyte consists of various geomorphological landforms: These are: a) landforms of tectonic origin transect large part of the volcanic centers in upper Ormoc area; b) landforms of volcanic origin, several inactive volcanic centers located in Upper Ormoc are transected by Philippine Fault; c) landforms of volcano-denudational and denudational slopes dominates the area where most of the earthquake-induced landslide occurred; and d) Colluvium and alluvial deposits dominate the foot slope of Ormoc and Jaro-Pastrana plain. Earthquake ground acceleration and geotechnical properties of various landforms are crucial for landslide studies. To generate the landslide critical acceleration model of sliding block, various data were considered, these are: geotechnical data (i.e., soil and rock strength parameters), slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), landslide inventory, soil map, geologic maps for the calculation of the factor of safety. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) surveying methods, refraction microtremor (ReMi), and three-component microtremor (3CMT) were conducted to measure site period and surface wave velocity as well as to create a soil thickness model. Critical acceleration model of various geomorphological unit using Remote Sensing, field geotechnical, geophysical, and geospatial data collected from the areas affected by the 06 July 2017 M6.5 Leyte earthquake. Spatial analysis of earthquake-induced landslide from the 06 July 2017, were then performed to assess the relationship between the calculated critical acceleration and peak ground acceleration. The observed trends proved helpful in establishing the role of critical acceleration as a determining factor in the distribution of co-seismic landslides.

Keywords: earthquake-induced landslide, remote sensing, geomorphology, seismic response

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Authors: Rezvan Ravanfar Haghighi, V. C. Vani, Suresh Perumal, Sabyasachi Chatterjee, Pratik Kumar

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X-ray attenuation coefficient [µ(E)] of any substance, for energy (E), is a sum of the contributions from the Compton scattering [ μCom(E)] and photoelectric effect [µPh(E)]. In terms of the, electron density (ρe) and the effective atomic number (Zeff) we have µCom(E) is proportional to [(ρe)fKN(E)] while µPh(E) is proportional to [(ρeZeffx)/Ey] with fKN(E) being the Klein-Nishina formula, with x and y being the exponents for photoelectric effect. By taking the sample's HU at two different excitation voltages (V=V1, V2) of the CT machine, we can solve for X=ρe, Y=ρeZeffx from these two independent equations, as is attempted in DECT inversion. Since µCom(E) and µPh(E) are both energy dependent, the coefficients of inversion are also dependent on (a) the source spectrum S(E,V) and (b) the detector efficiency D(E) of the CT machine. In the present paper we tabulate these coefficients of inversion for different practical manifestations of S(E,V) and D(E). The HU(V) values from the CT follow: <µ(V)>=<µw(V)>[1+HU(V)/1000] where the subscript 'w' refers to water and the averaging process <….> accounts for the source spectrum S(E,V) and the detector efficiency D(E). Linearity of μ(E) with respect to X and Y implies that (a) <µ(V)> is a linear combination of X and Y and (b) for inversion, X and Y can be written as linear combinations of two independent observations <µ(V1)>, <µ(V2)> with V1≠V2. These coefficients of inversion would naturally depend upon S(E, V) and D(E). We numerically investigate this dependence for some practical cases, by taking V = 100 , 140 kVp, as are used for cardiological investigations. The S(E,V) are generated by using the Boone-Seibert source spectrum, being superposed on aluminium filters of different thickness lAl with 7mm≤lAl≤12mm and the D(E) is considered to be that of a typical Si[Li] solid state and GdOS scintilator detector. In the values of X and Y, found by using the calculated inversion coefficients, errors are below 2% for data with solutions of glycerol, sucrose and glucose. For low Zeff materials like propionic acid, Zeffx is overestimated by 20% with X being within1%. For high Zeffx materials like KOH the value of Zeffx is underestimated by 22% while the error in X is + 15%. These imply that the source may have additional filtering than the aluminium filter specified by the manufacturer. Also it is found that the difference in the values of the inversion coefficients for the two types of detectors is negligible. The type of the detector does not affect on the DECT inversion algorithm to find the unknown chemical characteristic of the scanned materials. The effect of the source should be considered as an important factor to calculate the coefficients of inversion.

Keywords: attenuation coefficient, computed tomography, photoelectric effect, source spectrum

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Constantine Mbajiorgu

Abstract:

Vegetation has a marked effect on runoff and has become an important component in hydrologic model. The watershed Resources Management (WRM) model, a process-based, continuous, distributed parameter simulation model developed for hydrologic and soil erosion studies at the watershed scale lack a crop growth component. As such, this model assumes a constant parameter values for vegetation and hydraulic parameters throughout the duration of hydrologic simulation. Our approach is to develop a crop growth algorithm based on the original plant growth model used in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate Model (EPIC) model. This paper describes the development of a single crop growth model which has the capability of simulating all crops using unique parameter values for each crop. Simulated crop growth processes will reflect the vegetative seasonality of the natural watershed system. An existing model was employed for evaluating vegetative resistance by hydraulic and vegetative parameters incorporated into the WRM model. The improved WRM model will have the ability to evaluate the seasonal variation of the vegetative roughness coefficient with depth of flow and further enhance the hydrologic model’s capability for accurate hydrologic studies.

Keywords: runoff, roughness coefficient, PAR, WRM model

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Ziraguen O. Williams, Shield B. Lin, Fouad N. Matari, Leslie J. Quiocho

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Simulation for seated row exercise was a continued task to assist NASA in analyzing a one-dimensional vibration isolation and stabilization system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Feedback delay and signal noise were added to the model as previously done in simulation for squat exercise. Simulation runs for this study were conducted in two software simulation tools, Trick and MBDyn, software simulation environments developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The exciter force in the simulation was calculated from the motion capture of an exerciser during a seated row exercise. The simulation runs include passive control, active control using a Proportional, Integral, Derivative (PID) controller, and active control using a Piecewise Linear Integral Derivative (PWLID) controller. Output parameters include displacements of the exercise platform, the exerciser, and the counterweight; transmitted force to the wall of spacecraft; and actuator force to the platform. The simulation results showed excellent force reduction in the actively controlled system compared to the passive controlled system, which showed less force reduction.

Keywords: control, counterweight, isolation, vibration.

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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Authors: Sheng Yu Chen, Shi-Heng Wang

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Aim: Based on human, animal experiments, and genetic studies, cysteinyl leukotrienes, LTC4, LTD4, and LTE4, are inflammatory substances that are metabolized by 5-lipooxygenase from arachidonic acid, and these substances trigger asthma. In addition, the synthetic pathway of cysteinyl leukotriene is relevant to the increase in cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial ischemia and stroke. Given the situation, we aim to investigate whether cysteinyl leukotrienes receptor antagonist (LTRA), montelukast which cures those who have asthma has potential protective effects on cardiovascular diseases. Method: We conducted a cohort study, and enrolled participants which are newly diagnosed with asthma (ICD-9 CM code 493. X) between 2002 to 2011. The data source is from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database Patients with a previous history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke were excluded. Among the remaining participants, every montelukast user was matched with two randomly non-users by sex, and age. The incident cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke, were regarded as outcomes. We followed the participants until outcomes come first or the end of the following period. To explore the protective effect of montelukast on the risk of cardiovascular disease, we use multivariable Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio with adjustment for potential confounding factors. Result: There are 55876 newly diagnosed asthma patients who had at least one claim of inpatient admission or at least three claims of outpatient records. We enrolled 5350 montelukast users and 10700 non-users in this cohort study. The following mean (±SD) time of the Montelukast group is 5 (±2.19 )years, and the non-users group is 6.2 5.47 (± 2.641) years. By using multivariable Cox regression, our analysis indicated that the risk of incident cardiovascular diseases between montelukast users (n=43, 0.8%) and non-users (n=111, 1.04%) is approximately equal. [adjusted hazard ratio 0.992; P-value:0.9643] Conclusion: In this population-based study, we found that the use of montelukast is not associated with a decrease in incident MI or IS.

Keywords: asthma, inflammation, montelukast, insurance research database, cardiovascular diseases

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Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

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In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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Authors: Bouchemha Amel, Chachoui Takieddine, H. Maalem

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Automatic detection of targets in a modern communication system RADAR is based primarily on the concept of adaptive CFAR detector. To have an effective detection, we must minimize the influence of disturbances due to the clutter. The detection algorithm adapts the CFAR detection threshold which is proportional to the average power of the clutter, maintaining a constant probability of false alarm. In this article, we analyze the performance of two variants of adaptive algorithms CA-CFAR and OS-CFAR and we compare the thresholds of these detectors in the marine environment (no-Gaussian) with a Weibull distribution.

Keywords: CFAR, threshold, clutter, distribution, Weibull, detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 589

Authors: Maria Ghorbanian, Mohammad Ghahramani, Mahmood Abolghasemi

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Universities and institutions of higher education in Iran, like other higher education institutions in the world, have a heavy mission and task to educate students based on the needs of the country. Taking on such a serious responsibility requires having a good governance system for planning, formulating executive plans, evaluating, and finally modifying them in accordance with the current conditions and challenges ahead. In this regard, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the components of good governance in the Iranian higher education system by survey method and with a quantitative approach. In order to collect data, a researcher-made questionnaire was used, which includes two parts: personal and professional characteristics (5 questions) and the three components of good governance in the Iranian higher education system, including good management and leadership (8 items), continuous evaluation and effective (university performance, finance, and university appointments) (8 items) and civic responsibility and sustainable development (7 items). These variables were measured and coded in the form of a five-level Likert scale from "Very Low = 1" to "Very High = 5". First, the validity and reliability of the research model were examined. In order to calculate the reliability of the questionnaire, two methods of Cronbach's alpha and combined reliability were used. Fornell-Larker interaction and criterion were also used to determine the degree of diagnostic validity. The statistical population of this study included all faculty members of public universities in Tehran (N = 4429). The sample size was estimated to be 340 using the Cochran's formula. These numbers were studied using a randomized method with a proportional assignment. The data were analyzed by the structural equation method with the least-squares approach. The results showed that the component of civil responsibility and sustainable development with a factor load of 0.827 is the most important element of good governance.

Keywords: good governance, higher education, sustainable, development

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Authors: Hafiz M. Rizwan, Muhammad S. Sajid, Zafar Iqbal, Muhammad Saqib

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Gastro-intestinal (GI) helminths infection in sheep causes a substantial loss in terms of productivity and constitutes serious economic losses in the world. Different types of forages are rich in trace element contents and may act as a natural resource to improve the trace element deficiencies leading to immunity boost-up in general and against gastrointestinal parasitic infections in particular. In the present study, the level of trace elements (Cu, Co, Mn, Zn) determined in sera of different breeds of sheep, available feedstuffs, respective soil samples and their association with GI helminths in Sialkot district, Punjab, Pakistan. Almost similar prevalence of GI helminths was recorded (32.81%) during spring 2015 and (32.55%) during autumn 2014. The parasitic species identified from the microscopically scanned faecal samples of district Sialkot were Fasciola (F.) hepatica, F. gigantica, Haemonchus contortus, Eimeria crandallis, Gongylonema pulchrum, Oesophagostomum sp., Trichuris ovis, Strongyles sp., Cryptosporidium sp. and Trichostrongylus sp. Among variables like age, sex, and breed, only sex was found significant in district Sialkot. A significant (P < 0.05) variation in the concentration of Zn, Cu, Mn, and Co was recorded in collected forages species. Soils of grazing field showed insignificant (P > 0.05) variation among soils of different tehsils of Sialkot district. Statistically, sera of sheep showed no variation (P > 0.05) during autumn 2014, While, variation (P < 0.05) among different tehsils of Sialkot district during spring 2015 except Co. During autumn 2014 the mean concentration of Cu, Zn, and Co in sera was inversely proportional to the mean EPG of sheep while during spring 2015 only Zn was inversely proportional to the mean EPG of sheep. The trace element-rich forages preferably Zn were effective ones against helminths infection. The trace element-rich forages will be recommended for their utilization as an alternate to improve the trace element deficiencies in sheep which ultimately boost up the immunity against gastrointestinal parasitic infections.

Keywords: coprological examination, gastro-intestinal parasites, prevalence, sheep, trace elements

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Authors: Chaiyaset Promsri

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Based on the synthesis of related literatures, this research found thirteen related dimensions that involved the development of natural disaster preparedness awareness including hazard knowledge, hazard attitude, training for disaster preparedness, rehearsal and practice for disaster preparedness, cultural development for preparedness, public relations and communication, storytelling, disaster awareness game, simulation, past experience to natural disaster, information sharing with family members, and commitment to the community (time of living).  The 40-item of natural disaster preparedness awareness questionnaire was developed based on these thirteen dimensions. Data were collected from 595 participants in Bangkok metropolitan and vicinity. Cronbach's alpha was used to examine the internal consistency for this instrument. Reliability coefficient was 97, which was highly acceptable.  Exploratory Factor Analysis where principal axis factor analysis was employed. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin index of sampling adequacy was .973, indicating that the data represented a homogeneous collection of variables suitable for factor analysis. Bartlett's test of Sphericity was significant for the sample as Chi-Square = 23168.657, df = 780, and p-value < .0001, which indicated that the set of correlations in the correlation matrix was significantly different and acceptable for utilizing EFA. Factor extraction was done to determine the number of factors by using principal component analysis and varimax.  The result revealed that four factors had Eigen value greater than 1 with more than 60% cumulative of variance. Factor #1 had Eigen value of 22.270, and factor loadings ranged from 0.626-0.760. This factor was named as "Knowledge and Attitude of Natural Disaster Preparedness".  Factor #2 had Eigen value of 2.491, and factor loadings ranged from 0.596-0.696. This factor was named as "Training and Development". Factor #3 had Eigen value of 1.821, and factor loadings ranged from 0.643-0.777. This factor was named as "Building Experiences about Disaster Preparedness".  Factor #4 had Eigen value of 1.365, and factor loadings ranged from 0.657-0.760. This was named as "Family and Community". The results of this study provided support for the reliability and construct validity of natural disaster preparedness awareness for utilizing with populations similar to sample employed.

Keywords: natural disaster, disaster preparedness, disaster awareness, Thai citizens

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Xuewei Li, Jingfeng Yuan, Jianliang Zhou

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The 21st century has been called the century of human exploitation of underground space. Due to the characteristics of large quantity, tight schedule, low safety reserve and high uncertainty of deep foundation pit engineering, accidents frequently occur in deep foundation pit engineering, causing huge economic losses and casualties. With the successful application of information technology in the construction industry, building information modeling has become a research hotspot in the field of architectural engineering. Therefore, the application of building information modeling (BIM) and other information communication technologies (ICTs) in construction safety management is of great significance to improve the level of safety management. This research summed up the mechanism of the deep foundation pit engineering accident through the fault tree analysis to find the control factors of deep foundation pit engineering safety management, the deficiency existing in the traditional deep foundation pit construction site safety management. According to the accident cause mechanism and the specific process of deep foundation pit construction, the hazard information of deep foundation pit engineering construction site was identified, and the hazard list was obtained, including early warning information. After that, the system framework was constructed by analyzing the early warning information demand and early warning function demand of the safety management system of deep foundation pit. Finally, the safety management system of deep foundation pit construction site based on BIM through combing the database and Web-BIM technology was developed, so as to realize the three functions of real-time positioning of construction site personnel, automatic warning of entering a dangerous area, real-time monitoring of deep foundation pit structure deformation and automatic warning. This study can initially improve the current situation of safety management in the construction site of deep foundation pit. Additionally, the active control before the occurrence of deep foundation pit accidents and the whole process dynamic control in the construction process can be realized so as to prevent and control the occurrence of safety accidents in the construction of deep foundation pit engineering.

Keywords: Web-BIM, safety management, deep foundation pit, construction

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Authors: Terri Cole, Fay Sweeting

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Abuse of position for sexual gain by police is defined as behavior involving individuals taking advantage of their role to pursue a sexual or improper relationship. Previous research has considered whether it involves ‘bad apples’ - individuals with poor moral ethos or ‘bad barrels’ – broader organizational flaws which may unconsciously allow, minimize, or do not effectively deal with such behavior. Low level sexual misconduct (e.g., consensual sex on duty) is more common than more serious offences (e.g., rape), yet the impact of such behavior can have severe implications not only for those involved but can also negatively undermine public confidence in the police. This ongoing, collaborative research project has identified variables from 514 historic case files from 35 UK police forces in order to identify potential risk indicators which may lead to such behavior. Quantitative analysis using logistic regression and the Cox proportion hazard model has resulted in the identification of specific risk factors of significance in prediction. Factors relating to both perpetrator background such as a history of intimate partner violence, debt, and substance misuse coupled with in work behavior such as misusing police systems increase the risk. Findings are able to provide pragmatic recommendations for those tasked with identifying potential or investigating suspected perpetrators of misconduct.

Keywords: abuse of position, forensic psychology, misconduct, sexual abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Anitha Muralidhara, Victor Engelen, Christophe Len, Pascal Pandard, Guy Marlair

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Production of bio-based chemicals and materials from lignocellulosic biomass is gaining tremendous importance in advanced bio-refineries while aiming towards progressive replacement of petroleum based chemicals in transportation fuels and commodity polymers. One such attempt has resulted in the production of key furan derivatives (FD) such as furfural, HMF, MMF etc., via acid catalyzed dehydration (ACD) of C6 and C5 sugars, which are further converted into key chemicals or intermediates (such as Furandicarboxylic acid, Furfuryl alcohol etc.,). In subsequent processes, many high potential FD are produced, that can be converted into high added value polymers or high energy density biofuels. During ACD, an unavoidable polyfuranic byproduct is generated which is called humins. The family of FD is very large with varying chemical structures and diverse physicochemical properties. Accordingly, the associated risk profiles may largely vary. Hazardous Material (Haz-mat) classification systems such as GHS (CLP in the EU) and the UN TDG Model Regulations for transport of dangerous goods are one of the preliminary requirements for all chemicals for their appropriate classification, labelling, packaging, safe storage, and transportation. Considering the growing application routes of FD, it becomes important to notice the limited access to safety related information (safety data sheets available only for famous compounds such as HMF, furfural etc.,) in these internationally recognized haz-mat classification systems. However, these classifications do not necessarily provide information about the extent of risk involved when the chemical is used in any specific application. Factors such as thermal stability, speed of combustion, chemical incompatibilities, etc., can equally influence the safety profile of a compound, that are clearly out of the scope of any haz-mat classification system. Irrespective of the bio-based origin, FD has so far received inconsistent remarks concerning their toxicity profiles. With such inconsistencies, there is a fear that, a large family of FD may also follow extreme judgmental scenarios like ionic liquids, by ranking some compounds as extremely thermally stable, non-flammable, etc., Unless clarified, these messages could lead to misleading judgements while ranking the chemical based on its hazard rating. Safety is a key aspect in any sustainable biorefinery operation/facility, which is often underscored or neglected. To fill up these existing data gaps and to address ambiguities and discrepancies, the current study focuses on giving preliminary insights on safety assessment of FD and their potential targeted by-products. With the available information in the literature and obtained experimental results, physicochemical safety, environmental safety as well as (a scenario based) fire safety profiles of key FD, as well as side streams such as humins and levulinic acid, will be considered. With this, the study focuses on defining patterns and trends that gives coherent safety related information for existing and newly synthesized FD in the market for better functionality and sustainable applications.

Keywords: furanics, humins, safety, thermal and fire hazard, toxicity

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Authors: Komal Saini, S. K. Sahoo, B. S. Bajwa

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The Laser Fluorimetery Technique has been used for the microanalysis of uranium content in water samples collected from different sources like the hand pumps, tube wells in the drinking water samples of SW & NE Punjab, India. The geographic location of the study region in NE Punjab is between latitude 31.21º- 32.05º N and longitude 75.60º-76.14º E and for SW Punjab is between latitude 29.66º-30.48º N and longitude 74.69º-75.54º E. The purpose of this study was mainly to investigate the uranium concentration levels of ground water being used for drinking purposes and to determine its health effects, if any, to the local population of these regions. In the present study 131 samples of drinking water collected from different villages of SW and 95 samples from NE, Punjab state, India have been analyzed for chemical and radiological toxicity. In the present investigation, uranium content in water samples of SW Punjab ranges from 0.13 to 908 μgL−1 with an average of 82.1 μgL−1 whereas in samples collected from NE- Punjab, it ranges from 0 to 28.2 μgL−1 with an average of 4.84 μgL−1. Thus, revealing that in the SW- Punjab 54 % of drinking water samples have uranium concentration higher than international recommended limit of 30 µgl-1 (WHO, 2011) while 35 % of samples exceeds the threshold of 60 µgl-1 recommended by our national regulatory authority of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), Department of Atomic Energy, India, 2004. On the other hand in the NE-Punjab region, none of the observed water sample has uranium content above the national/international recommendations. The observed radiological risk in terms of excess cancer risk ranges from 3.64x10-7 to 2.54x10-3 for SW-Punjab, whereas for NE region it ranges from 0 to 7.89x10-5. The chemical toxic effect in terms of Life-time average Daily Dose (LDD) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) have also been calculated. The LDD for SW-Punjab varies from 0.0098 to 68.46 with an average of 6.18 µg/ kg/day whereas for NE region it varies from 0 to 2.13 with average 0.365 µg/ kg/day, thus indicating presence of chemical toxicity in SW Punjab as 35% of the observed samples in the SW Punjab are above the recommendation limit of 4.53 µg/ kg/day given by AERB for 60 µgl-1 of uranium. Maximum & Minimum values for hazard quotient for SW Punjab is 0.002 & 15.11 with average 1.36 which is considerably high as compared to safe limit i.e. 1. But for NE Punjab HQ varies from 0 to 0.47. The possible sources of high uranium observed in the SW- Punjab will also be discussed.

Keywords: uranium, groundwater, radiological and chemical toxicity, Punjab, India

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

Procedia PDF Downloads 504