Search results for: probability circle

Authors: Hao Wang, Shengchun Wang, Weidong Wang

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On the influence of train vibration and environmental noise on the measurement of track wear, we proposed a method for automatic extraction of circular arc on the inner or outer side of the rail waist and achieved the high-precision registration of rail profile. Firstly, a polynomial fitting method based on truncated residual histogram was proposed to find the optimal fitting curve of the profile and reduce the influence of noise on profile curve fitting. Then, based on the curvature distribution characteristics of the fitting curve, the interval search algorithm based on dynamic window’s maximum curvature entropy was proposed to realize the automatic segmentation of small circular arc. At last, we fit two circle centers as matching reference points based on small circular arcs on both sides and realized the alignment from the measured profile to the standard designed profile. The static experimental results show that the mean and standard deviation of the method are controlled within 0.01mm with small measurement errors and high repeatability. The dynamic test also verified the repeatability of the method in the train-running environment, and the dynamic measurement deviation of rail wear is within 0.2mm with high repeatability.

Keywords: curvature entropy, profile registration, rail wear, structured light, train-running

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: June Tay, Ivy Chia

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There are numerous changes, both mental and physical, taking place when people age. We need to understand the different aspects required for healthy living, including meeting nutritional needs, regular physical activities to keep agility, sufficient rest and sleep to have physical and mental well-being, social engagement to avoid the risk of social isolation and depression, and access to healthcare to detect and manage chronic conditions. Promoting physical activities for an ageing population is necessary as many may have enjoyed sedentary lifestyles for some time. In our study, we evaluate the considerations when designing a computer vision video game for the elderly. We need to design some low-impact activities, such as stretching and gentle movements, because some elderly individuals may have joint pains or mobility issues. The exercise game should consist of simple movements that are easy to follow and remember. It should be fun and enjoyable so that they can be motivated to do some exercise. Social engagement can keep the elderly motivated and competitive, and they are more willing to engage in game exercises. Elderly citizens can compare their game scores and try to improve them. We propose a computer vision-based video game for the elderly that will capture and track the movement of the elderly hand pushing a ball on the screen into a circle. It can be easily set up using a PC laptop with a webcam. Our video game adhered to the design framework we employed, and it encompassed ease of use, a simple graphical interface, easy-to-play game exercise, and fun gameplay.

Keywords: about computer vision, video games, gerontology technology, caregiving

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Jiraporn Weenuttranon

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The objectives of the consumer behavior of bakery products in Bangkok are to study consumer behavior of the bakery product, to study the essential factors that could possibly affect the consumer behavior and to study recommendations for the development of the bakery products. This research is a survey research. Populations are buyer’s bakery products in Bangkok. The probability sample size is 400. The research uses a questionnaire for self-learning by using information technology. The researcher created a reliability value at 0.71 levels of significance. The data analysis will be done by using the percentage, mean, and standard deviation and testing the hypotheses by using chi-square.

Keywords: consumer, behavior, bakery, standard deviation

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Meseret Teshome

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This study has the objective of assessing the effect of kaizen (5S, Muda elimination and Quality Control Circle (QCC) on employees’ affective attitude (job satisfaction, commitment and job stress) in Kombolcha Textile Share Company. A conceptual model was developed to describe the relationship between Kaizen and Employees’ Affective Attitude (EAA) factors. The three factors of Employee Affective Attitude were measured using questionnaire derived from other validated questionnaire. In the data collection to conduct this study; questionnaire, unstructured interview, written documents and direct observations are used. To analyze the data, SPSS and Microsoft Excel were used. In addition, the internal consistency of similar items in the questionnaire instrument was measured for their equivalence by using the cronbach’s alpha test. In this study, the effect of 5S, Muda elimination and QCC on job satisfaction, commitment and job stress in Kombolcha Textile Share Company is assessed and factors that reduce employees’ job satisfaction with respect to kaizen implementation are identified. The total averages of means from the questionnaire are 3.1 for job satisfaction, 4.31 for job commitment and 4.2 for job stress. And results from interview and secondary data show that kaizen implementation have effect on EAA. In general, based on the thesis results it was concluded that kaizen (5S, muda elimination and QCC) have positive effect for improving EAA factors at KTSC. Finally, recommendations for improvement are given based on the results.

Keywords: kaizen, job satisfaction, job commitment, job stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Abdelkader Hocine, Abdelhakim Maizia

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The exponential growth of reinforced fibers composite materials use has prompted researchers to step up their work on the prediction of their reliability. Owing to differences between the properties of the materials used for the composite, the manufacturing processes, the load combinations and types of environment, the prediction of the reliability of composite materials has become a primary task. Through failure criteria, TSAI-WU and the maximum stress, the reliability of multilayer tubular structures under pressure is the subject of this paper, where the failure probability of is estimated by the method of Monte Carlo.

Keywords: composite, design, monte carlo, tubular structure, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

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The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, Xudong Ren, Chen Su, Xinxi Xu, Fu Niu, Lingshuai Meng

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The respiratory diseases such as asthma, emphysema and bronchitis are connected with the air pollution and the number of these diseases tends to increase, which may attribute to the toxic aerosol deposition in human upper respiratory tract or in the bifurcation of human lung. The therapy of these diseases mostly uses pharmaceuticals in the form of aerosol delivered into the human upper respiratory tract or the lung. Understanding of airflow structures in human upper respiratory tract plays a very important role in the analysis of the “filtering” effect in the pharynx/larynx and for obtaining correct air-particle inlet conditions to the lung. However, numerical simulation based CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) technology has its own advantage on studying airflow structure in human upper respiratory tract. In this paper, a representative human upper respiratory tract is built and the CFD technology was used to investigate the air movement characteristic in the human upper respiratory tract. The airflow movement characteristic, the effect of the airflow movement on the shear stress distribution and the probability of the wall injury caused by the shear stress are discussed. Experimentally validated computational fluid-aerosol dynamics results showed the following: the phenomenon of airflow separation appears near the outer wall of the pharynx and the trachea. The high velocity zone is created near the inner wall of the trachea. The airflow splits at the divider and a new boundary layer is generated at the inner wall of the downstream from the bifurcation with the high velocity near the inner wall of the trachea. The maximum velocity appears at the exterior of the boundary layer. The secondary swirls and axial velocity distribution result in the high shear stress acting on the inner wall of the trachea and bifurcation, finally lead to the inner wall injury. The enhancement of breathing intensity enhances the intensity of the shear stress acting on the inner wall of the trachea and the bifurcation. If human keep the high breathing intensity for long time, not only the ability for the transportation and regulation of the gas through the trachea and the bifurcation fall, but also result in the increase of the probability of the wall strain and tissue injury.

Keywords: airflow structure, computational fluid dynamics, human upper respiratory tract, wall shear stress, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Larry Wang

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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an online homework system is integrated in teaching and learning mathematics and how it improves the student success rates in some gateway mathematics courses. WeBWork provided by the Mathematical Association of America is adopted as the online homework system. During the period of 2010-2015, the system was implemented in classes of precalculus, calculus, probability and statistics, discrete mathematics, linear algebra, and differential equations. As a result, the passing rates of the sections with WeBWork are well above other sections without WeBWork (about 7-10% higher). The paper also shows how the WeBWork system was used.

Keywords: gateway mathematics, online grading, pass rate, WeBWorK

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Vaidehi Murarka, Sneha Mehta, Dishant Upadhyay

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Our project topic is “Alphabet Recognition using pixel probability distribution”. The project uses techniques of Image Processing and Machine Learning in Computer Vision. Alphabet recognition is the mechanical or electronic translation of scanned images of handwritten, typewritten or printed text into machine-encoded text. It is widely used to convert books and documents into electronic files etc. Alphabet Recognition based OCR application is sometimes used in signature recognition which is used in bank and other high security buildings. One of the popular mobile applications includes reading a visiting card and directly storing it to the contacts. OCR's are known to be used in radar systems for reading speeders license plates and lots of other things. The implementation of our project has been done using Visual Studio and Open CV (Open Source Computer Vision). Our algorithm is based on Neural Networks (machine learning). The project was implemented in three modules: (1) Training: This module aims “Database Generation”. Database was generated using two methods: (a) Run-time generation included database generation at compilation time using inbuilt fonts of OpenCV library. Human intervention is not necessary for generating this database. (b) Contour–detection: ‘jpeg’ template containing different fonts of an alphabet is converted to the weighted matrix using specialized functions (contour detection and blob detection) of OpenCV. The main advantage of this type of database generation is that the algorithm becomes self-learning and the final database requires little memory to be stored (119kb precisely). (2) Preprocessing: Input image is pre-processed using image processing concepts such as adaptive thresholding, binarizing, dilating etc. and is made ready for segmentation. “Segmentation” includes extraction of lines, words, and letters from the processed text image. (3) Testing and prediction: The extracted letters are classified and predicted using the neural networks algorithm. The algorithm recognizes an alphabet based on certain mathematical parameters calculated using the database and weight matrix of the segmented image.

Keywords: contour-detection, neural networks, pre-processing, recognition coefficient, runtime-template generation, segmentation, weight matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: A. J. S. P. Nileema, S. Kulatunga , S. H. Palihawadana

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Computer aided detection (CAD) system was developed for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis using digital chest X-rays with MATLAB image processing techniques using a statistical approach. The study comprised of 200 digital chest radiographs collected from the National Hospital for Respiratory Diseases - Welisara, Sri Lanka. Pre-processing was done to remove identification details. Lung fields were segmented and then divided into four quadrants; right upper quadrant, left upper quadrant, right lower quadrant, and left lower quadrant using the image processing techniques in MATLAB. Contrast, correlation, homogeneity, energy, entropy, and maximum probability texture features were extracted using the gray level co-occurrence matrix method. Descriptive statistics and normal distribution analysis were performed using SPSS. Depending on the radiologists’ interpretation, chest radiographs were classified manually into PTB - positive (PTBP) and PTB - negative (PTBN) classes. Features with standard normal distribution were analyzed using an independent sample T-test for PTBP and PTBN chest radiographs. Among the six features tested, contrast, correlation, energy, entropy, and maximum probability features showed a statistically significant difference between the two classes at 95% confidence interval; therefore, could be used in the classification of chest radiograph for PTB diagnosis. With the resulting value ranges of the five texture features with normal distribution, a classification algorithm was then defined to recognize and classify the quadrant images; if the texture feature values of the quadrant image being tested falls within the defined region, it will be identified as a PTBP – abnormal quadrant and will be labeled as ‘Abnormal’ in red color with its border being highlighted in red color whereas if the texture feature values of the quadrant image being tested falls outside of the defined value range, it will be identified as PTBN–normal and labeled as ‘Normal’ in blue color but there will be no changes to the image outline. The developed classification algorithm has shown a high sensitivity of 92% which makes it an efficient CAD system and with a modest specificity of 70%.

Keywords: chest radiographs, computer aided detection, image processing, pulmonary tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Shirin Jalili, Ramin Ghasemi

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Lumbar microdiscectomy is the most commonly performed spinal surgery strategy; it is regularly performed to lighten the indications and signs of sciatica within the lower back and leg caused by a lumbar disc herniation. This surgery aims to progress leg pain, reestablish function, and enable a return to ordinary day-by-day exercises. Rates of lumbar disc surgery show critical geographic varieties recommending changing treatment criteria among working specialists. Few population-based considers have investigated the hazard of reoperation after disc surgery, and regional or inter specialty varieties within the reoperations are obscure. The conventional approach to recouping from lumbar microdiscectomy has been to restrain bending, lifting, or turning for a least 6 weeks in arrange to anticipate the disc from herniating once more. Traditionally, patients were exhorted to limit post-operative action, which was accepted to decrease the hazard of disc herniation and progressive insecurity. In modern hone, numerous specialists don't limit understanding of postoperative action due to the discernment this practice is pointless. There's a need of thinks about highlighting the result by distinctive scores or parameters after surgery for repetitive circle herniations of the lumbar spine at the starting herniation location. This study will evaluate the quality of life after surgical treatment of recurrent herniations with distinctive standardized approved result instruments.

Keywords: post-operative activity, disc, quality of life, treatment, movements

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Authors: Yasaman Esfandiari

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Mechanical engineering has always dealt with amplification of the input power in power trains. One of the ways to achieve this goal is to use gears to change the amplitude and direction of the torque and the speed. However, the gears should be optimally designed to best achieve these objectives. In this study, helical gear systems are optimized to achieve maximum power. Material selection, space restriction, available facilities for manufacturing, the probability of tooth breakage, and tooth wear are taken into account and governing equations are derived. Finally, a Matlab code was generated to solve the optimization problem and the results are verified.

Keywords: design, gears, Matlab, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Ravinder Bahl, Jamini Sharma

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The paper demonstrates analysis of the cervical cancer based on a probabilistic model. It involves technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important test features relating to cervical cancer. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases. The combination of the conventional statistical and machine learning tools is applied for the analysis. Experimental study with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause.

Keywords: cervical cancer, recurrence, no recurrence, probabilistic, classification, prediction, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Dadang Gunawan, I. Dewa Ketut Kertawidana, Lufthi Noorfitriyani

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For the last 5 years, there is the never-ending violent act and increased cases regarding aggressive behavior among high school students in Bogor, Indonesia. Those cases caused harm to many people, even death, and lead to the continuation circle of violence. This research was conducted to evaluate the effect of using peace education and media literacy in enhancing student’s understanding about aggression, as an effort to prevent aggressive behavior. In terms of methodology, this research was done by quasi-experiment with one group pretest and post-test design. A number of 38 students who were at risk of aggressive behavior from 3 vocational high school were involved to receive a 10 learning session about peace and media literacy. The aggression questionnaire was used to identify participants, supported by student’s record in school. To collect data, the questionnaire for measuring understanding about aggression has been developed and was used after the validity and reliability of this questionnaire tested. Post-test was carried out after the session ended. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding result showed that the mean score of student’s understanding of aggression was increased, therefore learning session of peace education and media literacy is significantly effective to enhance student’s understanding of aggression. It also showed a meaningful difference of understanding between male and female student’s whereas female students have a better understanding of aggression.

Keywords: aggressive behavior prevention, aggression, media literacy, peace education, peacebuilding

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Heiko Diefenbach, Christoph H. Glock

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Order picking, i.e., the order-based retrieval of items in a warehouse, is an important time- and cost-intensive process for many logistic systems. Despite the ongoing trend of automation, most order picking systems are still manual picker-to-parts systems, where human pickers walk through the warehouse to collect ordered items. Human work in warehouses is not free from errors, and order pickers may at times pick the wrong or the incorrect number of items. Errors can cause additional costs and significant correction efforts. Moreover, age might increase a person’s likelihood to make mistakes. Hence, the negative impact of picking errors might increase for an aging workforce currently witnessed in many regions globally. A significant amount of research has focused on making order picking systems more efficient. Among other factors, storage assignment, i.e., the assignment of items to storage locations (e.g., shelves) within the warehouse, has been subject to optimization. Usually, the objective is to assign items to storage locations such that order picking times are minimized. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research concerned with picking errors and respective prevention approaches. This paper hypothesize that the storage assignment of items can affect the probability of pick errors. For example, storing similar-looking items apart from one other might reduce confusion. Moreover, storing items that are hard to count or require a lot of counting at easy-to-access and easy-to-comprehend self heights might reduce the probability to pick the wrong number of items. Based on this hypothesis, the paper discusses how to incorporate error-prevention measures into mathematical models for storage assignment optimization. Various approaches with respective benefits and shortcomings are presented and mathematically modeled. To investigate the newly developed models further, they are compared to conventional storage assignment strategies in a computational study. The study specifically investigates how the importance of error prevention increases with pickers being more prone to errors due to age, for example. The results suggest that considering error-prevention measures for storage assignment can reduce error probabilities with only minor decreases in picking efficiency. The results might be especially relevant for an aging workforce.

Keywords: an aging workforce, error prevention, order picking, storage assignment

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

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Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: H. S. Kang

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Coupled electrical and optical model for conversion of electrical energy into coherent optical energy for transmitter-receiver link by solid state device is presented. Probability distribution for travelling laser beam switching time intervals and the number of switchings in the time interval is obtained. Selector function mapping is employed to regulate optical data transmission speed. It is established that regulated laser transmission from PhotoActive Laser transmitter follows principal of invariance. This considerably simplifies design of PhotoActive Laser Transmission networks.

Keywords: computational mathematics, finite difference Markov chain methods, sequence spaces, singularly perturbed differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

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In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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Authors: Zahra Mila Elmi, Mahsa Khanekheshi

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Almost half of the population and potential manpower in the country and rural areas are women. Manpower especially educated people, plays an important role in the production and economic growth. Also, the potential of rural areas to create employment should not be overlooked. In this research, the effects of socio-economic and demographic factors on women's economic participation in rural areas of Iran's provinces will be studied. Therefore, this study was performed by using the results of the rural households income and expenditure surveys -has been taken in 2016- in the framework of pseudo panel data. This study used the logit model and the maximum likelihood method to study the rural women's participation, with 28,265 observations. Results show the inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of female participation; In other words, young women are more likely to participate in labor markets more than the other groups. Divorced and single woman has more chance of participation in comparison with who was being married. With increasing the divorce rate and singleness in Iran, economic policymakers must provide appropriate solutions for this challenge in the coming years. On the base of the results, being a student and the presence of an infant under the age of 6 in the household has a negative effect on the possibility of women's participation in the labor market. The women's education level has a U-shaped relationship with their participation rate. Illiteracy and high education have a strong positive effect on the economic participation of rural women. This shows the dual labor market for women in Iran. Illiterate women are attracted to service jobs, and educated woman are more attracted to education and health jobs. Increasing household income has a small but positive and significant effect on the probability of rural female participation. In the overlook, due to the frequency of the women population in the age group of 25 to 35 years, and more willingness of women in the age 35 to 44 years to participate in the labor market, and studying ofa significant portion of the rural women, the increase of rural female participation is expected in the years ahead. Thus, it is expected policy maker to create new job opportunities for the employment of educated women and take the necessary plan to improve the current situation for women.

Keywords: female participation rate, rural area, provincial data, pseudo-panel data method

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, Kalman smoother, parameter estimation, noise variance

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Authors: Eric Berry White

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The paper examines the causality between solid waste pollution and lockdown. Particularly in 2020, the world experiences the takeover of the Corona virus pandemic, and most countries decided to adopt lockdown measure as the best solution to curtail the spread of the virus. On March 20, 2020, the Government of Liberia implemented a curfew that starts from 3:00PM to 6:00AM. This means that no unauthorized person is allowed to be in the streets during this time. In most developing countries, the issue of public waste and environmental hazard pollution tend to have a high effect among the slum communities where there are markets. This research covers 6 slums communities around the two biggest market hubs within Monrovia, and the result shows that the lockdown measure significantly reduced public waste pollution by reducing the movement of marketers in slum communities , where limited educational and sensitization for young people is reflected on their job market exclusion, jobless circle, and youth workforce concentration in informal work market. The study discovered that with public awareness and sensitization with females, solid waste could be reduced by 13 percentage point. But there is no evidence that awareness among male conduce pollution. within affected communities, Despite the impact of the lockdown on food consumption, these results emphasized that with the right monitoring of waste and aware, pollution could be reduce. By understanding these results and implementing the best policy, the paper recommends that dump sites be close at certain hours.

Keywords: lockdown, environmental, pollution, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Fatemeh Deldarabdolmaleki, Mohamad Fakri Zaky Bin Ja'afar

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This paper presents fenestration analysis to study the balance between utilizing daylight and eliminating the disturbing parameters in a private office room with interior venetian blinds taking into account different slat angles. Mean luminance of the scene and window, luminance ratio of the workplane and window, work plane illumination and daylight glare probability(DGP) were calculated as a function of venetian blind design properties. Recently developed software, analyzing High Dynamic Range Images (HDRI captured by CCD camera), such as radiance based evalglare and hdrscope help to investigate luminance-based metrics. A total of Eight-day measurement experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of different venetian blind angles in an office environment under daylight condition in Serdang, Malaysia. Detailed result for the selected case study showed that artificial lighting is necessary during the morning session for Malaysian buildings with southwest windows regardless of the venetian blind’s slat angle. However, in some conditions of afternoon session the workplane illuminance level exceeds the maximum illuminance of 2000 lx such as 10° and 40° slat angles. Generally, a rising trend is discovered toward mean window luminance level during the day. All the conditions have less than 10% of the pixels exceeding 2000 cd/m² before 1:00 P.M. However, 40% of the selected hours have more than 10% of the scene pixels higher than 2000 cd/m² after 1:00 P.M. Surprisingly in no blind condition, there is no extreme case of window/task ratio, However, the extreme cases happen for 20°, 30°, 40° and 50° slat angles. As expected mean window luminance level is higher than 2000 cd/m² after 2:00 P.M for most cases except 60° slat angle condition. Studying the daylight glare probability, there is not any DGP value higher than 0.35 in this experiment, due to the window’s direction, location of the building and studied workplane. Specifically, this paper reviews different blind angle’s response to the suggested metrics by the previous standards, and finally conclusions and knowledge gaps are summarized and suggested next steps for research are provided. Addressing these gaps is critical for the continued progress of the energy efficiency movement.

Keywords: daylighting, office environment, energy simulation, venetian blind

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Cagdas Agirdas

Abstract:

Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires non-grandfathered private insurance plans, starting with plan years on or after September 23rd, 2010, to provide certain preventive care services without any cost sharing in the form of deductibles, copayments or co-insurance. This requirement may affect racial and ethnic disparities in preventive care as it provides the largest copay reduction in preventive care. Objectives: We ask whether the ACA’s free preventive care benefits are associated with a reduction in racial and ethnic disparities in the utilization of four preventive services: cholesterol screenings, colonoscopies, mammograms, and pap smears. Methods: We use a data set of over 6,000 individuals from the 2009, 2010, and 2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS). We restrict our data set only to individuals who are old enough to be eligible for each preventive service. Our difference-in-differences logistic regression model classifies privately-insured Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians as the treatment groups and 2013 as the after-policy year. Our control group consists of non-Hispanic whites on Medicaid as this program already covered preventive care services for free or at a low cost before the ACA. Results: After controlling for income, education, marital status, preferred interview language, self-reported health status, employment, having a usual source of care, age and gender, we find that the ACA is associated with increases in the probability of the median, privately-insured Hispanic person to get a colonoscopy by 3.6% and a mammogram by 3.1%, compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. Similarly, we find that the median, privately-insured African American person’s probability of receiving these two preventive services improved by 2.3% and 2.4% compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. We do not find any significant improvements for any racial or ethnic group for cholesterol screenings or pap smears. Furthermore, our results do not indicate any significant changes for Asians compared to non-Hispanic whites in utilizing the four preventive services. These reductions in racial/ethnic disparities are robust to reconfigurations of time periods, previous diagnosis, and residential status. Conclusions: Early effects of the ACA’s provision of free preventive care are significant for Hispanics and African Americans. Further research is needed for the later years as more individuals became aware of these benefits.

Keywords: preventive care, Affordable Care Act, cost sharing, racial disparities

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Temesgen Sidamo, Prakruti S. Rao, Eleni Akllilu, Workineh Shibeshi, Yumi Park, Yong-Soon Cho, Jae-Gook Shin, Scott K. Heysell, Stellah G. Mpagama, Ephrem Engidawork

Abstract:

The fluoroquinolones (FQs) are used off-label for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and for evaluation in shortening the duration of drug-susceptible TB in recently prioritized regimens. Within the class, levofloxacin (LFX) and moxifloxacin (MXF) play a substantial role in ensuring success in treatment outcomes. However, sub-therapeutic plasma concentrations of either LFX or MXF may drive unfavorable treatment outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, the pharmacokinetics of LFX and MXF in Ethiopian patients with MDR-TB have not yet been investigated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model of levofloxacin (LFX) and moxifloxacin (MXF) and assess the percent probability of target attainment (PTA) as defined by the ratio of the area under the plasma concentration-time curve over 24-h (AUC0-24) and the in vitro minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) (AUC0-24/MIC) in Ethiopian MDR-TB patients. Steady-state plasma was collected from 39 MDR-TB patients enrolled in the programmatic treatment course and the drug concentrations were determined using optimized liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. In addition, the in vitro MIC of the patients' pretreatment clinical isolates was determined. PopPK and simulations were run at various doses, and PK parameters were estimated. The effect of covariates on the PK parameters and the PTA for maximum mycobacterial kill and resistance prevention was also investigated. LFX and MXF both fit in a one-compartment model with adjustments. The apparent volume of distribution (V) and clearance (CL) of LFX were influenced by serum creatinine (Scr), whereas the absorption constant (Ka) and V of MXF were influenced by Scr and BMI, respectively. The PTA for LFX maximal mycobacterial kill at the critical MIC of 0.5 mg/L was 29%, 62%, and 95% with the simulated 750 mg, 1000 mg, and 1500 mg doses, respectively, whereas the PTA for resistance prevention at 1500 mg was only 4.8%, with none of the lower doses achieving this target. At the critical MIC of 0.25 mg/L, there was no difference in the PTA (94.4%) for maximum bacterial kill among the simulated doses of MXF (600 mg, 800 mg, and 1000 mg), but the PTA for resistance prevention improved proportionately with dose. Standard LFX and MXF doses may not provide adequate drug exposure. LFX PopPK is more predictable for maximum mycobacterial kill, whereas MXF's resistance prevention target increases with dose. Scr and BMI are likely to be important covariates in dose optimization or therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) studies in Ethiopian patients.

Keywords: population PK, PTA, moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, MDR-TB patients, ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

Abstract:

Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Hafiz Gulfam Ahmad, Chuangdong Li, Zeeshan Ahmad

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed a parallel IDS and honeypot based approach to detect and analyze the unknown and known attack taxonomy for improving the IDS performance and protecting the network from intruders. The main theme of our approach is to record and analyze the intruder activities by using both the low and high interaction honeypots. Our architecture aims to achieve the required goals by combing signature based IDS, honeypots and generate the new signatures. The paper describes the basic component, design and implementation of this approach and also demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach reducing the probability of network attacks.

Keywords: network security, intrusion detection, honeypot, snort, nmap

Procedia PDF Downloads 531