Search results for: price forecast

Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Mahdi Naeemi Nooghabi, Mohammad Tofiqu Arif

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Gas Insulated Switchgears by using an insulation material named SF6 (Sulphur Hexafluoride) and its significant dielectric properties have been the only choice in urban areas and other polluted industries. However, the initial investment of GIS is more than conventional AIS substation, its total life cycle costs caused to reach huge amounts of electrical market share. SF6 environmental impacts on global warming, atmosphere depletion, and decomposing to toxic gases in high temperature situation, and highest rate in Global Warming Potential (GWP) with 23900 times of CO2e and a 3200-year period lifetime was the only undeniable concern of GIS substation. Efforts of international environmental institute and their politic supports have been able to lead SF6 emission reduction legislation. This research targeted to find an appropriate alternative for GIS substations to meet all advantages in land occupation area and to improve SF6 environmental impacts due to its leakage and emission. An innovative new conceptual design named Multi-Storey prepared a new AIS design similar in land occupation, extremely low Sf6 emission, and maximum greenhouse gas emission reduction. Surprisingly, by considering economic benefits due to carbon price saving, it can earn more than $675 million during the 30-year life cycle by replacing of just 25% of total annual worldly additional GIS switchgears.

Keywords: AIS substation, GIS substation, SF6, greenhouse gas, global warming potential, carbon price, emission

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Authors: Fuqiang Wang, Jun Liu, Liyan Cai

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This paper investigates the coordination of the conflicting two-stage low carbon supply chain consisting of upstream and downstream manufacturers. The conflict means that the upstream manufacturer takes action for carbon emissions reduction under carbon trading mechanism while the downstream manufacturer’s production cost rises. It assumes for the Stackelberg game that the upstream manufacturer plays as a leader and the downstream manufacturer does as a follower. Four kinds of the situation of decentralized decision making, centralized decision-making, the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract under decentralized decision making are considered. The backward induction approach is adopted to solve the game. The results show that the more intense the conflict is, the lower the efficiency of carbon emissions reduction and the higher the retail price is. The optimal investment of the decentralized supply chain under the two contracts is unchanged and still lower than that of the centralized supply chain. Both the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain, because that the sharing cost or carbon emissions reduction sharing revenue will transfer through the wholesale price mechanism. As a result, it requires more complicated contract forms to coordinate such a supply chain.

Keywords: cap-and-trade mechanism, carbon emissions reduction, conflict, supply chain coordination

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Authors: Sanpetchuda Krutkrua, Suphawatchara Malanond

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Throughout the history of Antitrust regimes in Thailand, Thailand has been trying to prevent collusive practices in the market through the amendments of the Trade Competition Act, and Thailand just passed the current Trade Competition Act of B.E. 2560 in 2017 of which several aspects of the law were amended in order to enhance the prevention of collusive outcome through both vertical trade restraints and horizontal trade restraints. An agreement is vertical when it involves arrangements that are in a complementary relationship. In Section 55 of the Act, any agreements to reduce the price, quantity, or quality of the goods, agreements to assign a sole retailer for the goods, and the agreement to impose conditions on the retailers are not allowed. However, Section 56 provides exemptions for the vertical relationship between the business operators, the franchise agreement, and the licensing agreement as long as such agreements do not surpass the necessity to do so, create monopolization, or affect the consumers in terms of price, quality, quantity, or options. The paper aims to explore the extent of the exemption under Section 56 and sequential regulations in terms of the vertical trade restraints regarding intellectual property licensing, and, at the same time, compare with the exemptions under the European Union competition law, and Singapore competition law. Comparative legal analysis with leading jurisdiction will illustrate the application of the newly enacted Thai Competition Act in terms of its enforcement in the global impact of IP rights, which, by nature are de jure or de facto international protection.

Keywords: antitrust, competition law, vertical restraint, intellectual property, IP licensing

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Authors: Dean A. McCorkle, Ed W. Hellman, Rebekka M. Dudensing, Dan D. Hanselka

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The motivation for this study centers on the labor- and cost-intensive nature of wine and table grape production in the U.S., and the potential opportunities for precision mechanization using robotics to augment those production tasks that are labor-intensive. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the economic viability of grape production in five U.S. states under current operating conditions, identify common production challenges and tasks that could be augmented with new technology, and quantify a maximum price for new technology that growers would be able to pay. Wine and table grape production is primed for precision mechanization technology as it faces a variety of production and labor issues. Methodology: Using a grower panel process, this project includes the development of a representative wine grape vineyard in five states and a representative table grape vineyard in California. The panels provided production, budget, and financial-related information that are typical for vineyards in their area. Labor costs for various production tasks are of particular interest. Using the data from the representative budget, 10-year projected financial statements have been developed for the representative vineyard and evaluated using a stochastic simulation model approach. Labor costs for selected vineyard production tasks were evaluated for the potential of new precision mechanization technology being developed. These tasks were selected based on a variety of factors, including input from the panel members, and the extent to which the development of new technology was deemed to be feasible. The net present value (NPV) of the labor cost over seven years for each production task was derived. This allowed for the calculation of a maximum price for new technology whereby the NPV of labor costs would equal the NPV of purchasing, owning, and operating new technology. Expected Results: The results from the stochastic model will show the projected financial health of each representative vineyard over the 2015-2024 timeframe. Investigators have developed a preliminary list of production tasks that have the potential for precision mechanization. For each task, the labor requirements, labor costs, and the maximum price for new technology will be presented and discussed. Together, these results will allow technology developers to focus and prioritize their research and development efforts for wine and table grape vineyards, and suggest opportunities to strengthen vineyard profitability and long-term viability using precision mechanization.

Keywords: net present value, robotic technology, stochastic simulation, wine and table grapes

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Authors: B. A. Adeniyi, S. A. Daud, O. Amao

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The study investigates consumer demand for meat products in Oyo West Local Government using linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS). Questions that were addressed by the study include: first, what is the type and quantity of meat products available to the household and their demand pattern? Second is the investigation of the factors that affect meat products demand pattern and proportion of income that is spent on them. For the above purpose cross-sectional data were collected from 156 households of the study area and analyzed to reveal the functional relationship between meat products consumption and some socio-economic variables of the household. Results indicated that per capita meat consumption increased as household income and education increased but decreased with age. It was also found that male tend to consume more meat products than their female counterparts and that increase in household size will first increased per caput meat consumption but later decreased it. Price also tends to greatly influence the demand pattern of meat products. The results of elasticity computed from the results of regression analysis revealed that own price elasticity for all meat products were negative which indicated that they were normal products while cross and expenditure elasticity were positive which further confirmed that meat products were normal and substitute products. This study therefore concludes that the relevance of these variables imposed a great challenge to the policy makers and the government, in the sense that more cost effective methods of meat production technology have to be devised in other to make consumption of meat products more affordable.

Keywords: meat products, consumption, animal production, technology

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Authors: Juhan Kim, Jinsoo Kim

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South Korea cannot import natural gas in any form other than LNG because of the division of South and North Korea. Further, the high proportion of natural gas in the national energy mix makes this resource crucial for energy security in Korea. Expansion of Panama Canal will allow for reducing the cost of shipping between the Far East and U.S East. Panama Canal expansion can have significant impacts on South Korea. Due to this situation, we review the natural gas optimal portfolio by considering the uniqueness of the Korean Natural gas market and expansion of Panama Canal. In order to assess Korea’s natural gas optimal portfolio, we developed natural gas portfolio model. The model comprises two steps. First, to obtain the optimal long-term spot contract ratio, the study examines the price level and the correlation between spot and long-term contracts by using the Markowitz, portfolio model. The optimal long-term spot contract ratio follows the efficient frontier of the cost/risk level related to this price level and degree of correlation. Second, by applying the obtained long-term contract purchase ratio as the constraint in the linear programming portfolio model, we determined the natural gas optimal import portfolio that minimizes total intangible and tangible costs. Using this model, we derived the optimal natural gas portfolio considering the expansion of Panama Canal. Based on these results, we assess the portfolio for natural gas import to Korea from the perspective of energy security and present some relevant policy proposals.

Keywords: natural gas, Panama Canal, portfolio analysis, South Korea

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Authors: Moses E. Emetere, M. L. Akinyemi

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Agricultural activities in the South–West Nigeria are mitigated by the global increase in temperature. The unpredictive surface temperature of the area had increased health challenges amongst other social influence. The satellite data of surface temperatures were compared with the ground station Davis weather station. The differential heating of the lower atmosphere were represented mathematically. A numerical predictive model was propounded to forecast future surface temperature.

Keywords: numerical predictive model, surface temperature, satellite date, ground data

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Authors: Tri Wijayanti Septiarini, Agus Maman Abadi, Muhammad Rifki Taufik

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The exchange rate of IDR/USD can be the indicator to analysis Indonesian economy. The exchange rate as a important factor because it has big effect in Indonesian economy overall. So, it needs the analysis data of exchange rate. There is decomposition data of exchange rate of IDR/USD to be frequency and time. It can help the government to monitor the Indonesian economy. This method is very effective to identify the case, have high accurate result and have simple structure. In this paper, data of exchange rate that used is weekly data from December 17, 2010 until November 11, 2014.

Keywords: the exchange rate, fuzzy mamdani, discrete wavelet transforms, fuzzy wavelet

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Authors: Ren-Jieh Kuo, Chun-Shou Huang

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The research of juice flavor forecasting has become more important in China. Due to the fast economic growth in China, many different kinds of juices have been introduced to the market. If a beverage company can understand their customers’ preference well, the juice can be served more attractively. Thus, this study intends to introduce the basic theory and computing process of grapes juice flavor forecasting based on support vector regression (SVR). Applying SVR, BPN and LR to forecast the flavor of grapes juice in real data, the result shows that SVR is more suitable and effective at predicting performance.

Keywords: flavor forecasting, artificial neural networks, Support Vector Regression, China

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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Authors: Luis N. Pereira, Marco P. Carrasco

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Dynamic pricing is a revenue management strategy in which hotel suppliers define, over time, flexible and different prices for their services for different potential customers, considering the profile of e-consumers and the demand and market supply. This means that the fundamentals of dynamic pricing are based on economic theory (price elasticity of demand) and market segmentation. This study aims to define a dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the e-consumers profile in order to improve the number of reservations of an online distribution channel. Segmentation methods (hierarchical and non-hierarchical) were used to identify and validate an optimal number of market segments. A profile of the market segments was studied, considering the characteristics of the e-consumers and the probability of reservation a room. In addition, the price elasticity of demand was estimated for each segment using econometric models. Finally, predictive models were used to define rules for classifying new e-consumers into pre-defined segments. The empirical study illustrates how it is possible to improve the intelligence of an online distribution channel system through an optimal dynamic pricing strategy and a contextualized offer to the profile of each new e-consumer. A database of 11 million e-consumers of an online distribution channel was used in this study. The results suggest that an appropriate policy of market segmentation in using of online reservation systems is benefit for the service suppliers because it brings high probability of reservation and generates more profit than fixed pricing.

Keywords: dynamic pricing, e-consumers segmentation, online reservation systems, predictive analytics

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Authors: Cholpassorn Sitthiwarongchai

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The purposes of this paper were to search for the uniqueness of community products from Bang Khonthi District, Samut Songkram Province, Thailand and to create a proper brand for the community products. Four important questions were asked to identify the uniqueness of the community products. The first question: What is the brand of coconut sugar that community wants to imply? The answer was 100 percent authentic coconut sugar. The second question: What is the nature of this product? The answer was that it is a natural product without any harmful chemical. The third question is: Who are the target customers? The answer was that homemakers and tourists are target customers. The fourth question: What is the brand guarantee to customers? The answer was that the brand guarantees that the product is 100 percent natural process with a high quality and it is a community production. The findings revealed that in terms of product, customers rated quality and package as the two most important factors. In terms of price, customers rated lower price and a visible label as the two most important factors. In terms of place, customer rated layout and the cleanliness of the place as the two most important factors. In terms of promotion, customer rated public relations and brochure at the store as the most important factors. From the group discussion, the local community agreed that the brand for the community coconut sugar of Salapi community should be a picture of a green coconut tree and yellow color background. This brand implies the strength of community and authentic of the high quality natural product.

Keywords: coconut sugar, community brand, Samut Songkram, natural product

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Authors: Nadezhda Kvatashidze, Elena Kharabadze

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It is broadly known that lease is a flexible means of funding enterprises. Lease reduces the risk related to access and possession of assets, as well as obtainment of funding. Therefore, it is important to refine lease accounting. The lease accounting regulations under the applicable standard (International Accounting Standards 17) make concealment of liabilities possible. As a result, the information users get inaccurate and incomprehensive information and have to resort to an additional assessment of the off-balance sheet lease liabilities. In order to address the problem, the International Financial Reporting Standards Board decided to change the approach to lease accounting. With the deficiencies of the applicable standard taken into account, the new standard (IFRS 16 ‘Leases’) aims at supplying appropriate and fair lease-related information to the users. Save certain exclusions; the lessee is obliged to recognize all the lease agreements in its financial report. The approach was determined by the fact that under the lease agreement, rights and obligations arise by way of assets and liabilities. Immediately upon conclusion of the lease agreement, the lessee takes an asset into its disposal and assumes the obligation to effect the lease-related payments in order to meet the recognition criteria defined by the Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting. The payments are to be entered into the financial report. The new lease accounting standard secures supply of quality and comparable information to the financial information users. The International Accounting Standards Board and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board jointly developed IFRS 15: ‘Revenue from Contracts with Customers’. The standard allows the establishment of detailed revenue recognition practical criteria such as identification of the performance obligations in the contract, determination of the transaction price and its components, especially price variable considerations and other important components, as well as passage of control over the asset to the customer. IFRS 15: ‘Revenue from Contracts with Customers’ is very similar to the relevant US standards and includes requirements more specific and consistent than those of the standards in place. The new standard is going to change the recognition terms and techniques in the industries, such as construction, telecommunications (mobile and cable networks), licensing (media, science, franchising), real property, software etc.

Keywords: assessment of the lease assets and liabilities, contractual liability, division of contract, identification of contracts, contract price, lease identification, lease liabilities, off-balance sheet, transaction value

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Authors: Martin Pellon Consunji

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Due to the rise in popularity of Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a store of wealth and speculative investment, there is an ever-growing demand for automated trading tools, such as bots, in order to gain an advantage over the market. Traditionally, trading in the stock market was done by professionals with years of training who understood patterns and exploited market opportunities in order to gain a profit. However, nowadays a larger portion of market participants are at minimum aided by market-data processing bots, which can generally generate more stable signals than the average human trader. The rise in trading bot usage can be accredited to the inherent advantages that bots have over humans in terms of processing large amounts of data, lack of emotions of fear or greed, and predicting market prices using past data and artificial intelligence, hence a growing number of approaches have been brought forward to tackle this task. However, the general limitation of these approaches can still be broken down to the fact that limited historical data doesn’t always determine the future, and that a lot of market participants are still human emotion-driven traders. Moreover, developing markets such as those of the cryptocurrency space have even less historical data to interpret than most other well-established markets. Due to this, some human traders have gone back to the tried-and-tested traditional technical analysis tools for exploiting market patterns and simplifying the broader spectrum of data that is involved in making market predictions. This paper proposes a method which uses neuro evolution techniques on both sentimental data and, the more traditionally human-consumed, technical analysis data in order to gain a more accurate forecast of future market behavior and account for the way both automated bots and human traders affect the market prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This study’s approach uses evolutionary algorithms to automatically develop increasingly improved populations of bots which, by using the latest inflows of market analysis and sentimental data, evolve to efficiently predict future market price movements. The effectiveness of the approach is validated by testing the system in a simulated historical trading scenario, a real Bitcoin market live trading scenario, and testing its robustness in other cryptocurrency and stock market scenarios. Experimental results during a 30-day period show that this method outperformed the buy and hold strategy by over 260% in terms of net profits, even when taking into consideration standard trading fees.

Keywords: neuro-evolution, Bitcoin, trading bots, artificial neural networks, technical analysis, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Shakila N. Senarath, Dinesh Asanka, Janaka Wijayanayake

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The necessity of cosmetic products is arising to fulfill consumer needs of personality appearance and hygiene. A cosmetic product consists of various chemical ingredients which may help to keep the skin healthy or may lead to damages. Every chemical ingredient in a cosmetic product does not perform on every human. The most appropriate way to select a healthy cosmetic product is to identify the texture of the body first and select the most suitable product with safe ingredients. Therefore, the selection process of cosmetic products is complicated. Consumer surveys have shown most of the time, the selection process of cosmetic products is done in an improper way by consumers. From this study, a content-based system is suggested that recommends cosmetic products for the human factors. To such an extent, the skin type, gender and price range will be considered as human factors. The proposed system will be implemented by using Machine Learning. Consumer skin type, gender and price range will be taken as inputs to the system. The skin type of consumer will be derived by using the Baumann Skin Type Questionnaire, which is a value-based approach that includes several numbers of questions to derive the user’s skin type to one of the 16 skin types according to the Bauman Skin Type indicator (BSTI). Two datasets are collected for further research proceedings. The user data set was collected using a questionnaire given to the public. Those are the user dataset and the cosmetic dataset. Product details are included in the cosmetic dataset, which belongs to 5 different kinds of product categories (Moisturizer, Cleanser, Sun protector, Face Mask, Eye Cream). An alternate approach of TF-IDF (Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency) is applied to vectorize cosmetic ingredients in the generic cosmetic products dataset and user-preferred dataset. Using the IF-IPF vectors, each user-preferred products dataset and generic cosmetic products dataset can be represented as sparse vectors. The similarity between each user-preferred product and generic cosmetic product will be calculated using the cosine similarity method. For the recommendation process, a similarity matrix can be used. Higher the similarity, higher the match for consumer. Sorting a user column from similarity matrix in a descending order, the recommended products can be retrieved in ascending order. Even though results return a list of similar products, and since the user information has been gathered, such as gender and the price ranges for product purchasing, further optimization can be done by considering and giving weights for those parameters once after a set of recommended products for a user has been retrieved.

Keywords: content-based filtering, cosmetics, machine learning, recommendation system

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Authors: Keshav Raj Acharya, Thakur Silwal, Neelam C. Poudyal

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Buffer zones, the peripheral areas around the national parks and wildlife reserves, are available for the purpose of benefitting the local inhabitants by providing forest products for subsistence needs of basic forest products outside the protected areas. The forest area within the buffer zone has been managed as a buffer zone community forest (BZCF) for the last 25 years after the approval of the buffer zone management regulation 1996. With a case study of select BZCF in Bardia National Park, this study aims to analyze whether the benefit provided by BZCF is equally available to poor users among other socioeconomic classes of the users. The findings are based on the analysis of cross-sectional data involving household surveys (n=305) and key informants’ interviews (n=10) as well as office records available at different 5 buffer zone community forest user groups offices. Results indicate that despite the provisions of subsidized rates for poor; poor households were more deprived due to higher forest products price particularly, the timber price in buffer zone. Evidence also indicate that due to the increased forest coverage, the incidence of wildlife damage has also increased and impacted the poor more due to lack of land ownership as well as limited alternatives. Clear community forest management guidelines with equitable benefit sharing and compensatory mechanisms to the users of poor socioeconomic class have been identified as a solution to increase the benefit to poor users in BZCFUGs.

Keywords: crop depredation, forest products, users, wellbeing ranking

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Authors: Faizul Azly Abd Dzubir, Muhammad F. Othman

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Conventional structural health monitoring approach for mechanical equipment uses inspection data from Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) during plant shut down window and fitness for service evaluation to estimate the integrity of the equipment that is prone to crack damage. Yet, this forecast is fraught with uncertainty because it is often based on assumptions of future operational parameters, and the prediction is not continuous or online. Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Technology (ADaPT) uses Acoustic Emission (AE) technology and a stochastic prognostic model to provide real-time monitoring and prediction of mechanical defects or cracks. The forecast can help the plant authority handle their cracked equipment before it ruptures, causing an unscheduled shutdown of the facility. The ADaPT employs process historical data trending, finite element analysis, fitness for service, and probabilistic statistical analysis to develop a prediction model for crack initiation and growth due to mechanical damage. The prediction model is combined with live equipment operating data for real-time prediction of the remaining life span owing to fracture. ADaPT was devised at a hot combined feed exchanger (HCFE) that had suffered creep crack damage. The ADaPT tool predicts the initiation of a crack at the top weldment area by April 2019. During the shutdown window in April 2019, a crack was discovered and repaired. Furthermore, ADaPT successfully advised the plant owner to run at full capacity and improve output by up to 7% by April 2019. ADaPT was also used on a coke drum that had extensive fatigue cracking. The initial cracks are declared safe with ADaPT, with remaining crack lifetimes extended another five (5) months, just in time for another planned facility downtime to execute repair. The prediction model, when combined with plant information data, allows plant operators to continuously monitor crack propagation caused by mechanical damage for improved maintenance planning and to avoid costly shutdowns to repair immediately.

Keywords: mechanical damage, cracks, continuous monitoring tool, remaining life, acoustic emission, prognostic model

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Authors: M. Reza Hashemi, Chris Small, Scott Hayward

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The Northeast Coast of the US faces damaging effects of coastal flooding and winds due to Atlantic tropical and extratropical storms each year. Historically, several large storm events have produced substantial levels of damage to the region; most notably of which were the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1938, Hurricane Carol, Hurricane Bob, and recently Hurricane Sandy (2012). The objective of this study was to develop an integrated modeling system that could be used as a forecasting/hindcasting tool to evaluate and communicate the risk coastal communities face from these coastal storms. This modeling system utilizes the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model for storm surge predictions and the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model for the wave environment. These models were coupled, passing information to each other and computing over the same unstructured domain, allowing for the most accurate representation of the physical storm processes. The coupled SWAN-ADCIRC model was validated and has been set up to perform real-time forecast simulations (as well as hindcast). Modeled storm parameters were then passed to a coastal risk assessment tool. This tool, which is generic and universally applicable, generates spatial structural damage estimate maps on an individual structure basis for an area of interest. The required inputs for the coastal risk model included a detailed information about the individual structures, inundation levels, and wave heights for the selected region. Additionally, calculation of wind damage to structures was incorporated. The integrated coastal risk assessment system was then tested and applied to Charlestown, a small vulnerable coastal town along the southern shore of Rhode Island. The modeling system was applied to Hurricane Sandy and a synthetic storm. In both storm cases, effect of natural dunes on coastal risk was investigated. The resulting damage maps for the area (Charlestown) clearly showed that the dune eroded scenarios affected more structures, and increased the estimated damage. The system was also tested in forecast mode for a large Nor’Easters: Stella (March 2017). The results showed a good performance of the coupled model in forecast mode when compared to observations. Finally, a nearshore model XBeach was then nested within this regional grid (ADCIRC-SWAN) to simulate nearshore sediment transport processes and coastal erosion. Hurricane Irene (2011) was used to validate XBeach, on the basis of a unique beach profile dataset at the region. XBeach showed a relatively good performance, being able to estimate eroded volumes along the beach transects with a mean error of 16%. The validated model was then used to analyze the effectiveness of several erosion mitigation methods that were recommended in a recent study of coastal erosion in New England: beach nourishment, coastal bank (engineered core), and submerged breakwater as well as artificial surfing reef. It was shown that beach nourishment and coastal banks perform better to mitigate shoreline retreat and coastal erosion.

Keywords: ADCIRC, coastal flooding, storm surge, coastal risk assessment, living shorelines

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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Finding algorithms to predict the growth of tumors has piqued the interest of researchers ever since the early days of cancer research. A number of studies were carried out as an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. Mathematical modeling can play a very important role in the prognosis of tumor process of breast cancer. However, mathematical models describe primary tumor growth and metastases growth separately. Consequently, we propose a mathematical growth model for primary tumor and primary metastases which may help to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoM-IV and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-IV which reflects relations between PT and MTS; 3) analyzing the CoM-IV scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The CoM-IV is based on exponential tumor growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations; corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for primary metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for primary metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-IV model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and primary metastases; b) make forecast of the period of primary metastases appearance; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of BC and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-IV: the number of doublings for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘nonvisible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of primary metastases. The CoM-IV enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and primary metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-IV describes correctly primary tumor and primary distant metastases growth of IV (T1-4N0-3M1) stage with (N1-3) or without regional metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and manifestation of primary metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical modelling, primary metastases, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Yong-Sung Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Ho-Jun Jo, Jin-O Kim

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Home Energy Management System (HEMS) which makes the residential consumers contribute to the demand response is attracting attention in recent years. An aim of HEMS is to minimize their electricity cost by controlling the use of their appliances according to electricity price. The use of appliances in HEMS may be affected by some conditions such as external temperature and electricity price. Therefore, the user’s usage pattern of appliances should be modeled according to the external conditions, and the resultant usage pattern is related to the user’s comfortability on use of each appliances. This paper proposes a methodology to model the usage pattern based on the historical data with the copula function. Through copula function, the usage range of each appliance can be obtained and is able to satisfy the appropriate user’s comfort according to the external conditions for next day. Within the usage range, an optimal scheduling for appliances would be conducted so as to minimize an electricity cost with considering user’s comfort. Among the home appliance, electric heater (EH) is a representative appliance which is affected by the external temperature. In this paper, an optimal scheduling algorithm for an electric heater (EH) is addressed based on the method of branch and bound. As a result, scenarios for the EH usage are obtained according to user’s comfort levels and then the residential consumer would select the best scenario. The case study shows the effects of the proposed algorithm compared with the traditional operation of the EH, and it also represents impacts of the comfort level on the scheduling result.

Keywords: load scheduling, usage pattern, user’s comfort, copula function, branch and bound, electric heater

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Authors: Shailja Thakur

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In this paper it is shown that how farmers are suffering from all sides including vagaries of weather then price fluctuations, demand supply constraints, poor soil health etc. Also the ICT can prove to be of great help if incorporated rightly into Indian agriculture. Some innovative ways to reward farmers and distribution of subsidies to them can improve the current scenario.

Keywords: cost of farming, information and communication technology, innovative steps, roof gardening, vermicomposting

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

Abstract:

How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

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Authors: Raheel Asif, Michael Frommel

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This paper focuses on analyzing the exchange rate exposure of exporting & domestic firms in (the so far rarely addressed) largest Eastern European transition economies, i.e., Russia and the three EU accession countries, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic (CEEC-3). It also controls for possible effects of different exchange rate regimes, Great Financial crisis (2007-08), Russian Financial crisis (2014-15), the formation of EU & turn of year effect. Substantially improving the results from the existing literature on these transition economies, we find for more than 51% of our sample firms in CEEC-3 countries and 29% in Russia shows a significant exchange rate exposure. However, the magnitude and direction of firms’ exposure depends on the particular bilateral exchange rate and differs between CEEC-3 and Russia. We find that share price increases with an appreciation of the domestic currency against the EURO and US Dollar (USD) in CEEC-3; however, the effect is more pronounced for EURO as expected. Whereas, for Russian firms share price increases with a depreciation of the domestic currency against the USD only. Those differences may result from a differing dominance of exposure channels in the respective economies, such as the country-specific export structure, competitiveness channels, and dependence on foreign debt. Finally, the switch from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime appears to have a less pronounced effect for the exchange rate exposure of firms in all countries except for USD in Poland and Russia.

Keywords: exchange rate exposure, transition economies, central and eastern Europe, international finance

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Authors: Mirza Adil Ahmad Mughal

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Transcendental analytics, in the critique of pure reason, combines space and time as conditions of the possibility of the phenomenon from the transcendental aesthetic with the pure magnitude-intuition notion. The property of continuity as a qualitative result of the additive magnitude brings the possibility of connecting with experience, even though only as a potential because of the a priori necessity from assumption, as syntheticity of the a priori task of a scientific method of philosophy given by Kant, which precludes the application of categories to something not empirically reducible to the content of such a category's corresponding and possible object. This continuity as the qualitative result of a priori constructed notion of magnitude lies as a fundamental assumption and property of, what in Microeconomic theory is called as, 'choice rules' which combine the potentially-empirical and practical budget-price pairs with preference relations. This latter result is the purest qualitative side of the choice rules', otherwise autonomously, quantitative nature. The theoretical, barring the empirical, nature of this qualitative result is a synthetic a priori truth, which, if at all, it should be, if the axiomatic structure of the economic theory is held to be correct. It has a potentially verifiable content as its possible object in the form of quantitative price-budget pairs. Yet, the object that serves the respective Kantian category is qualitative itself, which is utility. This article explores the validity of Kantian qualifications for this application of 'categories' to the economic structure of society.

Keywords: categories of understanding, continuity, convexity, psyche, revealed preferences, synthetic a priori

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Authors: Ewa Krasnodębska

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The article presents the costs and income maize cultivation for grain four selected varieties with different numbers of FAO in 2013-2014. Results of the experiments are derived from a field experiment conducted in indywidulnym farm specializing in the production plant located in the eastern part of Mazowieckie voivodship. The experiment examined the profitability of four varieties of maize cultivation: medium early: P8400 (FAO 240) and P8589 (FAO 250), and an average of late: PR38N86 (FAO 270) and P9027 (FAO 260). In order to evaluate the profitability of grain maize production was calculated income from 1 ha of crops in zł and profitability index taking into account the direct payments up to 1 ha. Analyzing the value of crop production can be concluded that the value of the total production of each variety was very much varied and very much depend on the sales price and yield of maize obtained from 1 ha of cultivation. The largest average seed yield of two years at a moisture content of 15% was achieved in a variety PR38N86, which amounted to 12.1 t / ha and the lowest in the variety P8400 - 9.8 t / ha. Income from 1 ha of crops including EU subsidies ranged from 4916.4 zł / ha in 2013 for variety and only 528.7 PR38N86 zł / ha for a variety of P8400 in 2014. Profitability index reached the highest average late PR38N86 variety of FAO 290 over the entire two-year period under study, and the lowest rate of profitability achieved P8400 medium early variety of FAO 240. The profitability of production ranged from 8964.0 zł / ha in 2013 for a variety of PR38N86 to 5616.0 zł / ha for a variety of P8400 in 2014. Cultivation of maize for grain production is attractive and does not require large amounts of work, but its economic rationale is based primarily on the resulting yield and the price of buying.

Keywords: corn, grain, income, profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Yakubu Adamu, Baba Alfa, Salahudeen Adamu Gene

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As the drive towards clean, renewable and sustainable energy generation is gradually been reshaped by renewable penetration over time, energy storage has thus, become an optimal solution for utilities looking to reduce transmission and capacity cost, therefore the need for capacity resources to be adjusted accordingly such that renewable energy storage may have the opportunity to substitute for retiring conventional energy systems with higher capacity factors. Considering the Nigeria scenario, where Over 80% of the current Nigerian primary energy consumption is met by petroleum, electricity demand is set to more than double by mid-century, relative to 2025 levels. With renewable energy penetration rapidly increasing, in particular biomass, hydro power, solar and wind energy, it is expected to account for the largest share of power output in the coming decades. Despite this rapid growth, the imbalance between load and resources has created a hindrance to the development of energy storage capacity, load and resources, hence forecasting energy storage capacity will therefore play an important role in maintaining the balance between load and resources including supply and demand. Therefore, the degree to which this might occur, its timing and more importantly its sustainability, is the subject matter of the current research. Here, we forecast the future energy storage capacity rating and thus, evaluate the load and resource scenario in Nigeria. In doing so, We used the scenario-based International Energy Agency models, the projected energy demand and supply structure of the country through 2030 are presented and analysed. Overall, this shows that in high renewable (solar) penetration scenarios in Nigeria, energy storage with 4-6h duration can obtain over 86% capacity rating with storage comprising about 24% of peak load capacity. Therefore, the general takeaway from the current study is that most power systems currently used has the potential to support fairly large penetrations of 4-6 hour storage as capacity resources prior to a substantial reduction in capacity ratings. The data presented in this paper is a crucial eye-opener for relevant government agencies towards developing these energy resources in tackling the present energy crisis in Nigeria. However, if the transformation of the Nigeria. power system continues primarily through expansion of renewable generation, then longer duration energy storage will be needed to qualify as capacity resources. Hence, the analytical task from the current survey will help to determine whether and when long-duration storage becomes an integral component of the capacity mix that is expected in Nigeria by 2030.

Keywords: capacity, energy, power system, storage

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Authors: Daud Mustafa Minhas, Raja Rehan Khalid, Georg Frey

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The next generation power systems are equipped with abundantly available free renewable energy resources (RES). During their low-cost operations, the price of electricity significantly reduces to a lower value, and sometimes it becomes negative. Therefore, it is recommended not to operate the traditional power plants (e.g. coal power plants) and to reduce the losses. In fact, it is not a cost-effective solution, because these power plants exhibit some shutdown and startup costs. Moreover, they require certain time for shutdown and also need enough pause before starting up again, increasing inefficiency in the whole power network. Hence, there is always a trade-off between avoiding negative electricity prices, and the startup costs of power plants. To exploit this trade-off and to increase the profit of a power plant, two main contributions are made: 1) introducing retrofit technology for state of art coal power plant; 2) proposing optimal control strategy for a power plant by exploiting different flexibility features. These flexibility features include: improving ramp rate of power plant, reducing startup time and lowering minimum load. While, the control strategy is solved as mixed integer linear programming (MILP), ensuring optimal solution for the profit maximization problem. Extensive comparisons are made considering pre and post-retrofit coal power plant having the same efficiencies under different electricity price scenarios. It concludes that if the power plant must remain in the market (providing services), more flexibility reflects direct economic advantage to the plant operator.

Keywords: discrete optimization, power plant flexibility, profit maximization, unit commitment model

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Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

Procedia PDF Downloads 62