Search results for: multiplicative models

Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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This study considers the selection of the most suitable in silico molecular descriptors that could be used for s-triazine pesticides characterization. Suitable descriptors among topological, geometrical and physicochemical are used for quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) model establishment. Established models were obtained using linear regression (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. In this paper, MLR models were established avoiding multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors. Statistical quality of established models was evaluated by standard and cross-validation statistical parameters. For detection of similarity or dissimilarity among investigated s-triazine pesticides and their classification, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used and gave similar grouping. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: chemometrics, classification analysis, molecular descriptors, pesticides, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 389

Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

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Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

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Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Hassan Jebreen

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These models of a conservative pollutant in groundwater do not include representation of processes in soils and in the unsaturated zone, or biogeochemical processes in groundwater, These demonstration models can be used as the basis for more detailed simulations of the impacts of pollution sources at a local scale, but such studies should address processes related to specific pollutant species, and should consider local hydrogeology in more detail, particularly in relation to possible impacts on shallow systems which are likely to respond more quickly to changes in pollutant inputs. The results have demonstrated the interaction between groundwater flow fields and pollution sources in abstraction areas, and help to emphasise that wadi development is one of the key elements of water resources planning. The quality of groundwater in the Hebron area indicates a gradual increase in chloride and nitrate with time. Since the aquifers in Hebron districts are highly vulnerable due to their karstic nature, continued disposal of untreated domestic and industrial wastewater into the wadi will lead to unacceptably poor water quality in drinking water, which may ultimately require expensive treatment if significant health problems are to be avoided. Improvements are required in wastewater treatment at the municipal and domestic levels, the latter requiring increased public awareness of the issues, as well as improved understanding of the hydrogeological behaviour of the aquifers.

Keywords: groundwater, models, pollutants, wadis, hebron

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Said Benkaciali, Mourad Haddadi, Abdallah Khellaf, Kacem Gairaa, Mawloud Guermoui

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In this study, many experiments were carried out to assess the influence of the input parameters on the performance of multilayer perceptron which is one the configuration of the artificial neural networks. To estimate the daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface, we have developed some models by using seven combinations of twelve meteorological and geographical input parameters collected from a radiometric station installed at Ghardaïa city (southern of Algeria). For selecting of best combination which provides a good accuracy, six statistical formulas (or statistical indicators) have been evaluated, such as the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, correlation coefficient, and determination coefficient. We noted that multilayer perceptron techniques have the best performance, except when the sunshine duration parameter is not included in the input variables. The maximum of determination coefficient and correlation coefficient are equal to 98.20 and 99.11%. On the other hand, some empirical models were developed to compare their performances with those of multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results obtained show that the neural networks techniques give the best performance compared to the empirical models.

Keywords: empirical models, multilayer perceptron neural network, solar radiation, statistical formulas

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Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: M. A. Khanday, Aasma Rafiq, Khalid Nazir

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This paper is an attempt to establish the mathematical models to understand the distribution of drug administration in the human body through oral and intravenous routes. Three models were formulated based on diffusion process using Fick’s principle and the law of mass action. The rate constants governing the law of mass action were used on the basis of the drug efficacy at different interfaces. The Laplace transform and eigenvalue methods were used to obtain the solution of the ordinary differential equations concerning the rate of change of concentration in different compartments viz. blood and tissue medium. The drug concentration in the different compartments has been computed using numerical parameters. The results illustrate the variation of drug concentration with respect to time using MATLAB software. It has been observed from the results that the drug concentration decreases in the first compartment and gradually increases in other subsequent compartments.

Keywords: Laplace transform, diffusion, eigenvalue method, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

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Uncertainty in cost is a major factor affecting performance of construction projects. To our knowledge, several conceptual cost models have been developed with varying degrees of accuracy. Incorporating conceptual quantities into conceptual cost models could improve the accuracy of early predesign cost estimates. Hence, the development of quantity models for estimating conceptual quantities of framed reinforced concrete structures using supervised machine learning is the aim of the current research. Using measured quantities of structural elements and design variables such as live loads and soil bearing pressures, response and predictor variables were defined and used for constructing conceptual quantities models. Twenty-four models were developed for comparison using a combination of non-parametric support vector regression, linear regression, and bootstrap resampling techniques. R programming language was used for data analysis and model implementation. Gross soil bearing pressure and gross floor loading were discovered to have a major influence on the quantities of concrete and reinforcement used for foundations. Building footprint and gross floor loading had a similar influence on beams and slabs. Future research could explore the modelling of other conceptual quantities for walls, finishes, and services using machine learning techniques. Estimation of conceptual quantities would assist construction planners in early resource planning and enable detailed performance evaluation of early cost predictions.

Keywords: bootstrapping, conceptual quantities, modelling, reinforced concrete, support vector regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: H. A. Jawan

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This review describes the models of environmental-related crack propagation of aluminum alloys (7xxx) during the last few decades. Acknowledge on effects of different factors on the susceptibility to SCC permits to propose valuable mechanisms on crack advancement. The reliable mechanism of cracking give a possibility to propose the optimum chemical composition and thermal treatment conditions resulting in microstructure the most suitable for real environmental condition and stress state.

Keywords: microstructure, environmental, propagation, mechanism

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Authors: Samvel H. Sargsyan

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Together with the study of electron-optical properties of nanostructures and proceeding from experiment-based data, the study of the mechanical properties of nanostructures has become quite actual. For the study of the mechanical properties of fullerene, carbon nanotubes, graphene and other nanostructures one of the crucial issues is the construction of their adequate mathematical models. Among all mathematical models of graphene or carbon nano-tubes, this so-called discrete-continuous model is specifically important. It substitutes the interactions between atoms by elastic beams or springs. The present paper demonstrates the construction of the discrete-continual beam model for carbon nanotubes or graphene, where the micropolar beam model based on the theory of moment elasticity is accepted. With the account of the energy balance principle, the elastic moment constants for the beam model, expressed by the physical and geometrical parameters of carbon nanotube or graphene, are determined. By switching from discrete-continual beam model to the continual, the models of micropolar elastic cylindrical shell and micropolar elastic plate are confirmed as continual models for carbon nanotube and graphene respectively.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, discrete-continual, elastic, graphene, micropolar, plate, shell

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Authors: Salah Alrabeei, Mohammad Yousuf

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The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial future by theoretically valuing their options. Modeling option pricing by Black-School models with jumps guarantees to consider the market movement. However, only numerical methods can solve this model. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this paper, the exponential time differencing (ETD) method is applied for solving partial integrodifferential equations arising in pricing European options under Merton’s and Kou’s jump-diffusion models. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM). A partial fraction form of Pad`e schemes is used to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices. These two tools guarantee to get efficient and accurate numerical solutions. We construct a parallel and easy to implement a version of the numerical scheme. Numerical experiments are given to show how fast and accurate is our scheme.

Keywords: Integral differential equations, , L-stable methods, pricing European options, Jump–diffusion model

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Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

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This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: model based design (MBD), MATLAB, Simulink, stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop (RTW), target language compiler (TLC)

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Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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Authors: Armin Rahimi

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been a very successful project in determining math redistribution within the Earth system. Large deformations caused by earthquakes are in the high frequency band. Unfortunately, GRACE is only capable to provide reliable estimate at the low-to-medium frequency band for the gravitational changes. In this study, we computed the gravity changes after the 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake off-Sumatra using the GRACE Level-2 monthly spherical harmonic (SH) solutions released by the University of Texas Center for Space Research (UTCSR). Moreover, we calculated gravity changes using different fault models derived from teleseismic data. The model predictions showed non-negligible discrepancies in gravity changes. However, after removing high-frequency signals, using Gaussian filtering 350 km commensurable GRACE spatial resolution, the discrepancies vanished, and the spatial patterns of total gravity changes predicted from all slip models became similar at the spatial resolution attainable by GRACE observations, and predicted-gravity changes were consistent with the GRACE-detected gravity changes. Nevertheless, the fault models, in which give different slip amplitudes, proportionally lead to different amplitude in the predicted gravity changes.

Keywords: undersea earthquake, GRACE observation, gravity change, dislocation model, slip distribution

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Authors: Alla Levina, Sergey Taranov

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The classical approach to the providing noise immunity and integrity of information that process in computing devices and communication channels is to use linear codes. Linear codes have fast and efficient algorithms of encoding and decoding information, but this codes concentrate their detect and correct abilities in certain error configurations. To protect against any configuration of errors at predetermined probability can robust codes. This is accomplished by the use of perfect nonlinear and almost perfect nonlinear functions to calculate the code redundancy. The paper presents the error-correcting coding scheme using biorthogonal wavelet transform. Wavelet transform applied in various fields of science. Some of the wavelet applications are cleaning of signal from noise, data compression, spectral analysis of the signal components. The article suggests methods for constructing linear codes based on wavelet decomposition. For developed constructions we build generator and check matrix that contain the scaling function coefficients of wavelet. Based on linear wavelet codes we develop robust codes that provide uniform protection against all errors. In article we propose two constructions of robust code. The first class of robust code is based on multiplicative inverse in finite field. In the second robust code construction the redundancy part is a cube of information part. Also, this paper investigates the characteristics of proposed robust and linear codes.

Keywords: robust code, linear code, wavelet decomposition, scaling function, error masking probability

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Authors: Ryan A. Black, Stacey A. McCaffrey

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Over the past few decades, great strides have been made towards improving the science in the measurement of psychological constructs. Item Response Theory (IRT) has been the foundation upon which statistical models have been derived to increase both precision and accuracy in psychological measurement. These models are now being used widely to develop and refine tests intended to measure an individual's level of academic achievement, aptitude, and intelligence. Recently, the field of clinical psychology has adopted IRT models to measure psychopathological phenomena such as depression, anxiety, and addiction. Because advances in IRT measurement models are being made so rapidly across various fields, it has become quite challenging for psychologists and other behavioral scientists to keep abreast of the most recent developments, much less learn how to employ and decide which models are the most appropriate to use in their line of work. In the same vein, IRT measurement models vary greatly in complexity in several interrelated ways including but not limited to the number of item-specific parameters estimated in a given model, the function which links the expected response and the predictor, response option formats, as well as dimensionality. As a result, inferior methods (a.k.a. Classical Test Theory methods) continue to be employed in efforts to measure psychological constructs, despite evidence showing that IRT methods yield more precise and accurate measurement. To increase the use of IRT methods, this study endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of binary IRT models; that is, measurement models employed on test data consisting of binary response options (e.g., correct/incorrect, true/false, agree/disagree). Specifically, this study will cover the most basic binary IRT model, known as the 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model dating back to over 50 years ago, up until the most recent complex, 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model. Binary IRT models will be defined mathematically and the interpretation of each parameter will be provided. Next, all four binary IRT models will be employed on two sets of data: 1. Simulated data of N=500,000 subjects who responded to four dichotomous items and 2. A pilot analysis of real-world data collected from a sample of approximately 770 subjects who responded to four self-report dichotomous items pertaining to emotional consequences to alcohol use. Real-world data were based on responses collected on items administered to subjects as part of a scale-development study (NIDA Grant No. R44 DA023322). IRT analyses conducted on both the simulated data and analyses of real-world pilot will provide a clear demonstration of how to construct, evaluate, and compare binary IRT measurement models. All analyses will be performed using the new IRT procedure in SAS 9.4. SAS code to generate simulated data and analyses will be available upon request to allow for replication of results.

Keywords: instrument development, item response theory, latent trait theory, psychometrics

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Waqas Ali, Nadeem Majeed

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Requirement engineering is an essence of software development life cycle. The more time we spend on requirement engineering, higher the probability of success. Effective requirement engineering ensures and predicts successful software product. This paper presents the adaptation of requirement engineering practices in small and medium size companies of Pakistan. The study is conducted by questionnaires to show how much of requirement engineering models and practices are followed in Pakistan.

Keywords: requirement engineering, Pakistan, models, practices, organizations

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Authors: Natália Botica, Luís Luís, Paulo Bernardes

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The Côa Valley, listed World Heritage since 1998, presents more than 1300 open-air engraved rock panels. The Archaeological Park of the Côa Valley recorded the rock art motifs, testing various techniques based on direct tracing processes on the rock, using natural and artificial lighting. In this work, integrated in the "Open Access Rock Art Repository" (RARAA) project, we present the methodology adopted for the vectorial drawing of the rock art motifs based on orthophotos taken from the photogrammetric survey and 3D models of the rocks. We also present the information system designed to integrate the vector drawing and the characterization data of the motifs, as well as the open access sharing, in order to promote their reuse in multiple areas. The 3D models themselves constitute a very detailed record, ensuring the digital preservation of the rock and iconography. Thus, even if a rock or motif disappears, it can continue to be studied and even recreated.

Keywords: rock art, archaeology, iron age, 3D models

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: H. Jawan

Abstract:

This review describes the models of environmental-related crack propagation of aluminum alloys (7xxx) during the last few decades. Acknowledge on effects of different factors on the susceptibility to SCC permits to propose valuable mechanisms on crack advancement. The reliable mechanism of cracking give a possibility to propose the optimum chemical composition and thermal treatment conditions resulting in microstructure the most suitable for real environmental condition and stress state.

Keywords: microstructure, environmental, propagation, mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Masood Varshosaz, Kamyar Hasanpour

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In recent years, we have seen growing interest in recognizing humans in drone images for post-disaster search and rescue operations. Deep learning algorithms have shown great promise in this area, but they often require large amounts of labeled data to train the models. To keep the data acquisition cost low, augmentation techniques can be used to create additional data from existing images. There are many techniques of such that can help generate variations of an original image to improve the performance of deep learning algorithms. While data augmentation is potentially assumed to improve the accuracy and robustness of the models, it is important to ensure that the performance gains are not outweighed by the additional computational cost or complexity of implementing the techniques. To this end, it is important to evaluate the impact of data augmentation on the performance of the deep learning models. In this paper, we evaluated the most currently available 2D data augmentation techniques on a standard convolutional network which was trained for recognizing humans in drone images. The techniques include rotation, scaling, random cropping, flipping, shifting, and their combination. The results showed that the augmented models perform 1-3% better compared to a base network. However, as the augmented images only contain the human parts already visible in the original images, a new data augmentation approach is needed to include the invisible parts of the human body. Thus, we suggest a new method that employs simulated 3D human models to generate new data for training the network.

Keywords: human recognition, deep learning, drones, disaster mitigation

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Authors: Saghar Heidari

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In this paper, we study the valuation problem of European continuous-installment options under Markov-modulated models with a partial differential equation approach. Due to the opportunity for continuing or stopping to pay installments, the valuation problem under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled partial differential equations (CPDE) with free boundary features. To value the installment options, we express the truncated CPDE as a linear complementarity problem (LCP), then a finite element method is proposed to solve the resulted variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and illustrate some numerical results to examine the rate of convergence and accuracy of the proposed method for the pricing problem under the regime-switching model.

Keywords: continuous-installment option, European option, regime-switching model, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Mina Adel Shokry Fahim, Jūratė Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realisation often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter

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Authors: Patrick Ho

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Bloodstain Pattern Analysis (BPA) forensic evidence can be complex, requiring effective courtroom presentation to ensure clear and comprehensive understanding of the analyst’s findings. BPA witness statements can often involve reference to spatial information (such as location of rooms, objects, walls) which, when coupled with classified blood patterns, may illustrate the reconstructed movements of suspects and injured parties. However, it may be difficult to communicate this information through photography alone, despite this remaining the UK’s established method for presenting BPA evidence. Through an academic-police partnership between the University of Warwick and West Midlands Police (WMP), an integrated 3D scanning and HDR photography workflow for BPA was developed. Homicide scenes were laser scanned and, after processing, the 3D models were utilised in the BPA peer-review process. The same 3D models were made available for court but were not always utilised. This workflow has improved the ease of presentation for analysts and provided 3D scene models that assist with the investigation. However, the effects of incorporating 3D scene models in judicial processes may need to be studied before they are adopted more widely. 3D models from a simulated crime scene and West Midlands Police cases approved for conference disclosure are presented. We describe how the workflow was developed and integrated into established practices at WMP, including peer-review processes and witness statement delivery in court, and explain the impact the work has had on the Criminal Justice System in the West Midlands.

Keywords: bloodstain pattern analysis, forensic science, criminal justice, 3D scanning

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Authors: Junjie Zhong, Kai Hong, Lei Wang

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Passage Retrieval (PR) plays an important role in many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Traditional efficient retrieval models relying on exact term-matching, such as TF-IDF or BM25, have nowadays been exceeded by pre-trained language models which match by semantics. Though they gain effectiveness, deep language models often require large memory as well as time cost. To tackle the trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness in PR, this paper proposes Graph Passage Retriever (GraphPR), a graph-based model inspired by the development of graph learning techniques. Different from existing works, GraphPR is end-to-end and integrates both term-matching information and semantics. GraphPR constructs a passage-level graph from BM25 retrieval results and trains a GCN-like model on the graph with graph-based objectives. Passages were regarded as nodes in the constructed graph and were embedded in dense vectors. PR can then be implemented using embeddings and a fast vector-similarity search. Experiments on a variety of real-world retrieval datasets show that the proposed model outperforms related models in several evaluation metrics (e.g., mean reciprocal rank, accuracy, F1-scores) while maintaining a relatively low query latency and memory usage.

Keywords: efficiency, effectiveness, graph learning, language model, passage retrieval, term-matching model

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Authors: Yahia. Kourd, N. Guersi D. Lefebvre

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In this paper we propose to study the faults diagnosis in squirrel-cage induction motor using MLP neural networks. We use neural healthy and faulty models of the behavior in order to detect and isolate some faults in machine. In the first part of this work, we have created a neural model for the healthy state using Matlab and a motor located in LGEB by acquirins data inputs and outputs of this engine. Then we detected the faults in the machine by residual generation. These residuals are not sufficient to isolate the existing faults. For this reason, we proposed additive neural networks to represent the faulty behaviors. From the analysis of these residuals and the choice of a threshold we propose a method capable of performing the detection and diagnosis of some faults in asynchronous machines with squirrel cage rotor.

Keywords: faults diagnosis, neural networks, multi-models, squirrel-cage induction motor

Procedia PDF Downloads 634

Authors: Semih Sözer

Abstract:

One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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