Search results for: erosion rate prediction

Authors: Pooria Norouzi, Nicholas Tsang, Adam van der Goes, Joseph Yu, Douglas Zheng, Sirine Maleej

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In this study, virtual meters will be designed and used for energy balance measurements of an air handling unit (AHU). The method aims to replace traditional physical sensors in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with simulated virtual meters. Due to the inability to manage and monitor these systems, many HVAC systems have a high level of inefficiency and energy wastage. Virtual meters are implemented and applied in an actual HVAC system, and the result confirms the practicality of mathematical sensors for alternative energy measurement. While most residential buildings and offices are commonly not equipped with advanced sensors, adding, exploiting, and monitoring sensors and measurement devices in the existing systems can cost thousands of dollars. The first purpose of this study is to provide an energy consumption rate based on available sensors and without any physical energy meters. It proves the performance of virtual meters in HVAC systems as reliable measurement devices. To demonstrate this concept, mathematical models are created for AHU-07, located in building NE01 of the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT) Burnaby campus. The models will be created and integrated with the system’s historical data and physical spot measurements. The actual measurements will be investigated to prove the models' accuracy. Based on preliminary analysis, the resulting mathematical models are successful in plotting energy consumption patterns, and it is concluded confidently that the results of the virtual meter will be close to the results that physical meters could achieve. In the second part of this study, the use of virtual meters is further assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) in the HVAC systems of building to improve energy management and efficiency. By the data mining approach, virtual meters’ data is recorded as historical data, and HVAC system energy consumption prediction is also implemented in order to harness great energy savings and manage the demand and supply chain effectively. Energy prediction can lead to energy-saving strategies and considerations that can open a window in predictive control in order to reach lower energy consumption. To solve these challenges, the energy prediction could optimize the HVAC system and automates energy consumption to capture savings. This study also investigates AI solutions possibility for autonomous HVAC efficiency that will allow quick and efficient response to energy consumption and cost spikes in the energy market.

Keywords: virtual meters, HVAC, artificial intelligence, energy consumption prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Djemaa Megdoud, Messaoud Boudaa, Fatima Ouamrane, Salem Benamara

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In recent years, the compression of date (Phoenix dactylifera L.) fruit powders (DP) to obtain date tablets (DT) has been suggested as a promising form of valorization of non commercial valuable date fruit (DF) varieties. To further improve and characterize DT, the present study aims to investigate the influence of the DP particle size and compression force on some physical properties of DT. The results show that independently of particle size, the hardness (y) of tablets increases with the increase of the compression force (x) following a logarithmic law (y = a ln (bx) where a and b are the constants of model). Further, a full factorial design (FFD) at two levels, applied to investigate the erosion %, reveals that the effects of time and particle size are the same in absolute value and they are beyond the effect of the compression. Regarding the disintegration time, the obtained results also by means of a FFD show that the effect of the compression force exceeds 4 times that of the DP particle size. As final stage, the color parameters in the CIELab system of DT immediately after their obtaining are differently influenced by the size of the initial powder.

Keywords: powder, tablets, date (Phoenix dactylifera L.), hardness, erosion, disintegration time, color

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Angrita Denziana, Haninun, Hepiana Patmarina, Ferdinan Fatah

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The aims of the study are to determine the effect of the company's financial performance with Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) indicators. The macroeconomic factors with the indicators of Indonesia interest rate (SBI) and exchange rate on stock returns of non-financial companies listed in IDX. The results of this study indicate that the variable of ROA has negative effect on stock returns, ROE has a positive effect on stock returns, and the variable interest rate and exchange rate of SBI has positive effect on stock returns. From the analysis data by using regression model, independent variables ROA, ROE, SBI interest rate and the exchange rate very significant (p value < 0.01). Thus, all the above variable can be used as the basis for investment decision making for investment in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) mainly for shares in the non- financial companies.

Keywords: ROA, ROE, interest rate, exchange rate, stock return

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Prakash M.N, Mahesh G, Muhammed Rafi K.M, Shiju P. Nair

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Introduction: In launch vehicle missions, Reaction Control thrusters are being used for the three-axis stabilization of the vehicle during the coasting phases. A pressure-fed propulsion system is used for the operation of these thrusters due to its less complexity. In liquid stages, these thrusters are designed to draw propellant from the same tank used for the main propulsion system. So in order to regulate the propellant flow rates of these thrusters, flow control orifices are used in feed lines. These orifices are calibrated separately as per the flow rate requirement of individual thrusters for the nominal operating conditions. In some missions, it was observed that the thrusters were operated at higher thrust than nominal. This point was addressed through a series of cold flow and hot tests carried out in-ground and this paper elaborates the details of the same. Discussion: In order to find out the exact reason for this phenomenon, two flight configuration thrusters were identified and hot tested in the ground with calibrated orifices and feed lines. During these tests, the chamber pressure, which is directly proportional to the thrust, is measured. In both cases, chamber pressures higher than the nominal by 0.32bar to 0.7bar were recorded. The increase in chamber pressure is due to an increase in the oxidizer flow rate of both the thrusters. Upon further investigation, it is observed that the calibration of the feed line is done with ambient pressure downstream. But in actual flight conditions, the orifices will be subjected to operate with 10 to 11bar pressure downstream. Due to this higher downstream pressure, the flow through the orifices increases and thereby, the thrusters operate with higher chamber pressure values. Conclusion: As part of further investigatory tests, two numbers of fresh thrusters were realized. Orifice tuning of these thrusters was carried out in three different ways. In the first trial, the orifice tuning was done by simulating 1bar pressure downstream. The second trial was done with the injector assembled downstream. In the third trial, the downstream pressure equal to the flight injection pressure was simulated downstream. Using these calibrated orifices, hot tests were carried out in simulated vacuum conditions. Chamber pressure and flow rate values were exactly matching with the prediction for the second and third trials. But for the first trial, the chamber pressure values obtained in the hot test were more than the prediction. This clearly shows that the flow is detached in the 1st trial and attached for the 2nd & 3rd trials. Hence, the error in tuning the flow control orifices is pinpointed as the reason for this higher chamber pressure observed in flight.

Keywords: reaction control thruster, propellent, orifice, chamber pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Suzan Arslanturk, Mohammad-Reza Siadat, Theophilus Ogunyemi, Ananias Diokno

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Missing data is a common challenge in statistical analyses of most clinical survey datasets. A variety of methods have been developed to enable analysis of survey data to deal with missing values. Imputation is the most commonly used among the above methods. However, in order to minimize the bias introduced due to imputation, one must choose the right imputation technique and apply it to the correct type of missing data. In this paper, we have identified different types of missing values: missing data due to skip pattern (SPMD), undetermined missing data (UMD), and genuine missing data (GMD) and applied rough set imputation on only the GMD portion of the missing data. We have used rough set imputation to evaluate the effect of such imputation on prediction by generating several simulation datasets based on an existing epidemiological dataset (MESA). To measure how well each dataset lends itself to the prediction model (logistic regression), we have used p-values from the Wald test. To evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we have considered the width of 95% confidence interval for the probability of incontinence. Both imputed and non-imputed simulation datasets were fit to the prediction model, and they both turned out to be significant (p-value < 0.05). However, the Wald score shows a better fit for the imputed compared to non-imputed datasets (28.7 vs. 23.4). The average confidence interval width was decreased by 10.4% when the imputed dataset was used, meaning higher precision. The results show that using the rough set method for missing data imputation on GMD data improve the predictive capability of the logistic regression. Further studies are required to generalize this conclusion to other clinical survey datasets.

Keywords: rough set, imputation, clinical survey data simulation, genuine missing data, predictive index

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Authors: Ravi Kumar Pandit

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Climate change is regarded as one of the most fundamental threats to sustainable livelihood and global development. There is growing a global concern in linking community-managed forests as potential climate change mitigation projects. This study was conducted to explore the local people’s perception on climate change and the role of community forestry (CF) to combat climate change impacts. Two active community forest user groups (CFUGs) from Kaski and Syangja Districts in Nepal were selected as study sites, and various participatory tools were applied to collect primary data. Although most of the respondents were unaware about the words “Climate Change” in study sites, they were quite familiar with the irregularities in rainfall season and other weather extremities. 60% of the respondents had the idea that, due to increase in precipitation, there is a frequent occurrence of erosion, floods and landslide. Around 85% of the people agreed that community forests help in stabilizing soil, reducing the natural hazards like erosion, landslide. Biogas as an alternative source of cooking energy, and changes in crops and their varieties are the common adaptation measures that local people start practicing in both CFUGs in Nepal.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, global warming, adaptation in Nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Abdelmalk Brahma

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Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. It can, if it is not prevented, lead to significant spontaneous dimensional variations, which the cracking is one of events. In this context, cracking promotes the transport of aggressive agents in the material, which can affect the durability of concrete structures. Drying shrinkage develops over a long period almost 30 years although most occurred during the first three years. Drying shrinkage stabilizes when the material is water balance with the external environment. The drying shrinkage of cementitious materials is due to the formation of capillary tensions in the pores of the material, which has the consequences of bringing the solid walls of each other. Knowledge of the shrinkage characteristics of concrete is a necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable shrinkage movement in reinforced or prestressed concrete and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes in consideration the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: L. Nahimana

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The eastern edge of the East African Rift in Burundi shows many mass movement phenomena corresponding to landslides, mudflow, debris flow, spectacular erosion (mega-gully), flash floods and alluvial deposits. These phenomena usually occur during the rainy season. Their extent and consecutive damages vary widely. To manage these phenomena, it is necessary to adopt a methodological approach of their mapping with a structured database. The elements for this database are: three-dimensional extent of the phenomenon, natural causes and conditions (geological lithology, slope, weathering depth and products, rainfall patterns, natural environment) and the anthropogenic factors corresponding to the various human activities. The extent of the area provides information about the possibilities and opportunities for mitigation technique. The lithological nature allows understanding the influence of the nature of the rock and its structure on the intensity of the weathering of rocks, as well as the geotechnical properties of the weathering products. The slope influences the land stability. The intensity of annual, monthly and daily rainfall helps to understand the conditions of water saturation of the terrains. Certain natural circumstances such as the presence of streams and rivers promote foot slope erosion and thus the occurrence and activity of mass movements. The construction of some infrastructures such as new roads and agglomerations deeply modify the flow of surface and underground water followed by mass movements. Using geospatial data selected on the East African Rift in Burundi, it is presented case of mass movements illustrating the nature, importance, various factors and the extent of the damages. An analysis of these elements for each hazard can guide the options for mitigation of the phenomenon and its consequences.

Keywords: mass movement, landslide, mudflow, debris flow, spectacular erosion, mega-gully, flash flood, alluvial deposit, East African rift, Burundi

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Tanu Aneja, Harsha Malaviya

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Capturing pose information in cricket shots poses several challenges, such as low-resolution videos, noisy data, and joint occlusions caused by the nature of the shots. In response to these challenges, we propose a CondDGConv-based framework specifically for cricket shot prediction. By analyzing the spatial-temporal relationships in batsman shot sequences from an annotated 2D cricket dataset, our model achieves a 97% accuracy in predicting shot types. This performance is made possible by conditioning the graph network on batsman 2D poses, allowing for precise prediction of shot outcomes based on pose dynamics. Our approach highlights the potential for enhancing shot prediction in cricket analytics, offering a robust solution for overcoming pose-related challenges in sports analysis.

Keywords: action recognition, cricket. sports video analytics, computer vision, graph convolutional networks

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Authors: Akinyemi Tomiwa

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The microstructure of rainfall is important for predicting and modeling various environmental processes, such as rainfall interception by vegetation, soil erosion, and radar signals in rainfall. This rain microstructure was studied with a vertically pointing Micro Rain Radar (MRR) located at a tropical location in Akure South West Nigeria (7o 15’ N, 5o 15’ E). This research utilizes two years of data (2018 and 2019), and the data obtained comprises rainfall parameters such as Rain rates, radar reflectivity, liquid water content, fall velocity and Drop Size Distribution (DSD) based on vertical profiles. The measurement and variations of rain microstructure of these parameters with heights for different rain types were presented from ground level up to the height of 4800 m at 160 m range gates. It has been found that the convective, stratiform and mixed, which are the three major rain types, have different rain microstructures at different heights and were evaluated in this research. The correlation coefficient and the regression line equation were computed for each rain event. The highest rain rate and liquid water content were observed within the height range of 160-4800. It was found that a good correlation exists between the measured parameters. Hence it shows that specific liquid water content increases with increasing rain rate for both stratiform and convective rain types in this part of the world. The results can be very useful for a better understanding of rain structure over tropical regions.

Keywords: rain microstructure, drop size distribution, rain rates, stratiform, convective.

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

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We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Mohammad Javad Behzadnia, Amir Bahador Boroumand

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Introduction: Limited facility situations require allocating the most available resources for most casualties. Accordingly, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is the one that may need to transport the patient as soon as possible. In a mass casualty event, deciding when the facilities are restricted is hard. The Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOSE) has been introduced to assess the global outcome after brain injuries. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic factors associated with GOSE. Materials and Methods: In a multicenter cross-sectional study conducted on 144 patients with TBI admitted to trauma emergency centers. All the patients with isolated TBI who were mentally and physically healthy before the trauma entered the study. The patient’s information was evaluated, including demographic characteristics, duration of hospital stays, mechanical ventilation on admission laboratory measurements, and on-admission vital signs. We recorded the patients’ TBI-related symptoms and brain computed tomography (CT) scan findings. Results: GOSE assessments showed an increasing trend by the comparison of on-discharge (7.47 ± 1.30), within a month (7.51 ± 1.30), and within three months (7.58 ± 1.21) evaluations (P < 0.001). On discharge, GOSE was positively correlated with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (r = 0.729, P < 0.001) and motor GCS (r = 0.812, P < 0.001), and inversely with age (r = −0.261, P = 0.002), hospitalization period (r = −0.678, P < 0.001), pulse rate (r = −0.256, P = 0.002) and white blood cell (WBC). Among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms in univariate analysis, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), interventricular hemorrhage (IVH) (P = 0.006), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) (P = 0.06; marginally at P < 0.1), subdural hemorrhage (SDH) (P = 0.032), and epidural hemorrhage (EDH) (P = 0.037) were significantly associated with GOSE at discharge in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Our study showed some predictive factors that could help to decide which casualty should transport earlier to a trauma center. According to the current study findings, GCS, pulse rate, WBC, and among imaging signs and trauma-related symptoms, ICH, IVH, SAH, SDH, and EDH are significant independent predictors of GOSE at discharge in TBI patients.

Keywords: field, Glasgow outcome score, prediction, traumatic brain injury.

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Thomas Okechukwu Onah, Onyekachi Marcel Egwuagu

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Zero-surface temperature, which controlled the cooling profile, was modeled and used to investigate the effect of process parameters on the hot-rolled steel plates. The parameters include impingement gaps of 40mm to 70mm; pipe diameters of 20mm to 45mm feeding jet nozzle with 30 holes of 8mm diameters each; and flow rates within 2.896x10-⁶m³/s and 3.13x10-⁵m³/s. The developed simulation model of the Zero-Surface Temperature, upon validation, showed 99% prediction accuracy with dimensional homogeneity established. The evaluated Zero-Surface temperature of Controlled Water Jet Impingement Steel plates showed a high cooling rate of 36.31 Celsius degree/sec at an optimal cooling nozzle diameter of 20mm, impingement gap of 70mm and a flow rate of 1.77x10-⁵m³/s resulting in Reynold's number 2758.586, in the turbulent regime was obtained. It was also deduced that as the nozzle diameter was increasing, the impingement gap was reducing. This achieved a faster rate of cooling to an optimum temperature of 300oC irrespective of the starting surface cooling temperature. The results additionally showed that with a tested-plate initial temperature of 550oC, a controlled cooling temperature of about 160oC produced a film and nucleated boiling heat extraction that was particularly beneficial at the end of controlled cooling and influenced the microstructural properties of the test plates.

Keywords: temperature, mechanistic-model, plates, impingements, dimensionless-numbers

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Pei Yi Lin

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Objective: The objective of this study is to use machine learning methods to build an early prediction classifier model for acute delirium to improve the quality of medical care for intensive care patients. Background: Delirium is a common acute and sudden disturbance of consciousness in critically ill patients. After the occurrence, it is easy to prolong the length of hospital stay and increase medical costs and mortality. In 2021, the incidence of delirium in the intensive care unit of internal medicine was as high as 59.78%, which indirectly prolonged the average length of hospital stay by 8.28 days, and the mortality rate is about 2.22% in the past three years. Therefore, it is expected to build a delirium prediction classifier through big data analysis and machine learning methods to detect delirium early. Method: This study is a retrospective study, using the artificial intelligence big data database to extract the characteristic factors related to delirium in intensive care unit patients and let the machine learn. The study included patients aged over 20 years old who were admitted to the intensive care unit between May 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, excluding GCS assessment <4 points, admission to ICU for less than 24 hours, and CAM-ICU evaluation. The CAMICU delirium assessment results every 8 hours within 30 days of hospitalization are regarded as an event, and the cumulative data from ICU admission to the prediction time point are extracted to predict the possibility of delirium occurring in the next 8 hours, and collect a total of 63,754 research case data, extract 12 feature selections to train the model, including age, sex, average ICU stay hours, visual and auditory abnormalities, RASS assessment score, APACHE-II Score score, number of invasive catheters indwelling, restraint and sedative and hypnotic drugs. Through feature data cleaning, processing and KNN interpolation method supplementation, a total of 54595 research case events were extracted to provide machine learning model analysis, using the research events from May 01 to November 30, 2022, as the model training data, 80% of which is the training set for model training, and 20% for the internal verification of the verification set, and then from December 01 to December 2022 The CU research event on the 31st is an external verification set data, and finally the model inference and performance evaluation are performed, and then the model has trained again by adjusting the model parameters. Results: In this study, XG Boost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were used to analyze and compare four machine learning models. The average accuracy rate of internal verification was highest in Random Forest (AUC=0.86), and the average accuracy rate of external verification was in Random Forest and XG Boost was the highest, AUC was 0.86, and the average accuracy of cross-validation was the highest in Random Forest (ACC=0.77). Conclusion: Clinically, medical staff usually conduct CAM-ICU assessments at the bedside of critically ill patients in clinical practice, but there is a lack of machine learning classification methods to assist ICU patients in real-time assessment, resulting in the inability to provide more objective and continuous monitoring data to assist Clinical staff can more accurately identify and predict the occurrence of delirium in patients. It is hoped that the development and construction of predictive models through machine learning can predict delirium early and immediately, make clinical decisions at the best time, and cooperate with PADIS delirium care measures to provide individualized non-drug interventional care measures to maintain patient safety, and then Improve the quality of care.

Keywords: critically ill patients, machine learning methods, delirium prediction, classifier model

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Cheng-yu Hsieh, Bo Zhang, Ahmed Hambaba

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Stock market prediction has long been an area of interest for both expert analysts and investors, driven by its complexity and the noisy, volatile conditions it operates under. This research examines the efficacy of combining the Patch Time Series Transformer (PatchTST) with wavelet transforms, specifically focusing on Haar and Daubechies wavelets, in forecasting the adjusted closing price of the S&P 500 index for the following day. By comparing the performance of the augmented PatchTST models with traditional predictive models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Transformers, this study highlights significant enhancements in prediction accuracy. The integration of the Daubechies wavelet with PatchTST notably excels, surpassing other configurations and conventional models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The success of the PatchTST model paired with Daubechies wavelet is attributed to its superior capability in extracting detailed signal information and eliminating irrelevant noise, thus proving to be an effective approach for financial time series forecasting.

Keywords: deep learning, financial forecasting, stock market prediction, patch time series transformer, wavelet transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Oleg Vlasovets, Fabian Schaipp, Christian L. Mueller

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we conduct a network analysis and predict the sex of 1000 participants based on ”connectome” - pairwise Pearson’s correlation across 436 brain parcels. We solve the non-smooth convex optimization problem, known under the name of Graphical Lasso, where the solution includes a low-rank component. With this solution and machine learning model for a sex prediction, we explain the brain parcels-sex connectivity patterns.

Keywords: network analysis, neuroscience, machine learning, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Vahdettin Sariyel, Birol Dag

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In this research, it is aimed to determine the effects of several environmental factors on adaptation and some yield parameters of Saanen goats reared under intensive conditions at a private farm in Konya province. Gestation rate, twins rate and litter size were evaluated as reproductive traits. Gestation rate was determined as 93.8% and 90.5% for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Twins rate was determined as 59.35 % and 70.00 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Litter size was 1.49 and 1.46 for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Survival rates of kids from birth to weaning at three months of age were found as 87.74 % and 98.54 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively.

Keywords: gestation rate, reproduction, saanen, twins rate, vitality

Procedia PDF Downloads 591

Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

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The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Wei-Neng Wang, Jhy-Yuan Shieh, Jhy-Hwa Chen, Juin-Jen Chang

Abstract:

This paper incorporate tax evasion into a one-sector real business cycle (RBC) model to explores the quantitative interrelations between income tax rate and equilibrium (in)determinacy, and income tax rate is endogenously determined in order to balance the government budget. We find that the level of the effective income tax rate is key factor for equilibrium (in)determinacy, instead of the level of income tax rate in a tax evasion economy. Under an economy with tax evasion, the higher income tax rate is not sufficiently to lead to equilibrium indeterminate, it must combine with a necessary condition which is the lower fraction of tax evasion and that can result in agents' optimistic expectations to become self-fulfilling and sunspot fluctuation more likely to occur. On the other hand, an economy with tax evasion can see its macroeconomy become more stabilize, and a higher fraction of income tax evasion may has a stronger stabilizing effect.

Keywords: tax evasion, balanced-budget rule, equlibirium (in)determinacy, effective income tax rate

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

Abstract:

The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: economic lot, basic period, genetic algorithm, fixed rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 564

Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

Abstract:

Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

Abstract:

Although much research has been done on the pricing benchmark both in terms of fiqh or Islamic economic perspective, but no substitution for the concept of interest (rate of interest) up to now in the application of Islamic Banking because some of the jurists from the middle east even allow the use of a benchmark rate such as LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) as a measure of Islamic financial asset prices, so in other words, they equate the concept of rate of interest with the concept of rate of profit, which is the core reason (raison detre) for the replacement of usury as instructed in the Quran. This study aims to find the concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in Islamic Banking and Capital market. Rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in Islamic Bond Market in Capital Market.

Keywords: Rate of profit, economic justice, stability, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: Vinod Ponnagandla, Brenton McLaury, Siamack Shirazi

Abstract:

Sand production can lead to deposition of particles or erosion. Low production rates resulting in deposition can partially clog systems and cause under deposit corrosion. Commercially available nonintrusive acoustic sand detectors are attractive as they claim to detect sand production. Acoustic sand detectors are used during oil and gas production; however, operators often do not know the threshold detection limits of these devices. It is imperative to know the detection limits to appropriately plan for cleaning of separation equipment or examine risk of erosion. These monitors are based on detecting the acoustic signature of sand as the particles impact the pipe walls. The objective of this work is to determine threshold detection limits for acoustic sand monitors that are commercially available. The minimum threshold sand concentration that can be detected in a pipe are determined as a function of flowing gas and liquid velocities. A large scale flow loop with a 4-inch test section is utilized. Commercially available sand monitors (ClampOn and Roxar) are evaluated for different flow regimes, sand sizes and pipe orientation (vertical and horizontal). The manufacturers’ recommend that the monitors be placed on a bend to maximize the number of particle impacts, so results are shown for monitors placed at 45 and 90 degree positions in a bend. Acoustic sand monitors that clamp to the outside of pipe are passive and listen for solid particle impact noise. The threshold sand rate is calculated by eliminating the background noise created by the flow of gas and liquid in the pipe for various flow regimes that are generated in horizontal and vertical test sections. The average sand sizes examined are 150 and 300 microns. For stratified and bubbly flows the threshold sand rates are much higher than other flow regimes such as slug and annular flow regimes that are investigated. However, the background noise generated by slug flow regime is very high and cause a high uncertainty in detection limits. The threshold sand rates for annular flow and dry gas conditions are the lowest because of high gas velocities. The effects of monitor placement around elbows that are in vertical and horizontal pipes are also examined for 150 micron. The results show that the threshold sand rates that are detected in vertical orientation are generally lower for all various flow regimes that are investigated.

Keywords: acoustic monitor, sand, multiphase flow, threshold

Procedia PDF Downloads 409