Search results for: statistical model

Authors: Alireza Monzavi Chaleshtari, Maryam Aliakbari

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Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the prediction of child attachment style based on a positive and safe combination parenting method mediated by maternal attachment styles in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Method: The design of the present study was descriptive of correlation and structural equations and applied in terms of purpose. The population of this study includes all children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder living in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province and their mothers. The sample size of the above study includes 165children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province with their mothers, who were selected by purposive sampling method based on the inclusion criteria. The obtained data were analyzed in two sections of descriptive and inferential statistics. In the descriptive statistics section, statistical indices of mean, standard deviation, frequency distribution table and graph were used. In the inferential section, according to the nature of the hypotheses and objectives of the research, the data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient tests, Bootstrap test and structural equation model. findings:The results of structural equation modeling showed that the research models fit and showed a positive and safe combination parenting style mediated by the mother attachment style has an indirect effect on the child attachment style. Also, a positive and safe combined parenting style has a direct relationship with child attachment style, and She has a mother attachment style. Conclusion:The results and findings of the present study show that there is a significant relationship between positive and safe combination parenting methods and attachment styles of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder with maternal attachment style mediation. Therefore, it can be expected that parents using a positive and safe combination232 parenting method can effectively lead to secure attachment in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Keywords: child attachment style, positive and safe parenting, maternal attachment style, ADHD

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Authors: Gizem Kayar, Ramazan Bakir, M. Ilkay Koşar, Ceren U. Gencer, Alperen Ayyildiz

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Anatomy classes are crucial for general education of medical students, whereas learning anatomy is quite challenging and requires memorization of thousands of structures. In traditional teaching methods, learning materials are still based on books, anatomy mannequins, or videos. This results in forgetting many important structures after several years. However, more interactive teaching methods like virtual reality, augmented reality, gamification, and motion sensors are becoming more popular since such methods ease the way we learn and keep the data in mind for longer terms. During our study, we designed a virtual reality based digital head anatomy platform to investigate whether a fully interactive anatomy platform is effective to learn anatomy and to understand the level of teaching and learning optimization. The Head is one of the most complicated human anatomy structures, with thousands of tiny, unique structures. This makes the head anatomy one of the most difficult parts to understand during class sessions. Therefore, we developed a fully interactive digital tool with 3D model marking, quiz structures, 2D/3D puzzle structures, and VR support so as to integrate the power of VR and gamification. The project has been developed in Unity game engine with HTC Vive Cosmos VR headset. The head anatomy 3D model has been selected with full skeletal, muscular, integumentary, head, teeth, lymph, and vein system. The biggest issue during the development was the complexity of our model and the marking of it in the 3D world system. 3D model marking requires to access to each unique structure in the counted subsystems which means hundreds of marking needs to be done. Some parts of our 3D head model were monolithic. This is why we worked on dividing such parts to subparts which is very time-consuming. In order to subdivide monolithic parts, one must use an external modeling tool. However, such tools generally come with high learning curves, and seamless division is not ensured. Second option was to integrate tiny colliders to all unique items for mouse interaction. However, outside colliders which cover inner trigger colliders cause overlapping, and these colliders repel each other. Third option is using raycasting. However, due to its own view-based nature, raycasting has some inherent problems. As the model rotate, view direction changes very frequently, and directional computations become even harder. This is why, finally, we studied on the local coordinate system. By taking the pivot point of the model into consideration (back of the nose), each sub-structure is marked with its own local coordinate with respect to the pivot. After converting the mouse position to the world position and checking its relation with the corresponding structure’s local coordinate, we were able to mark all points correctly. The advantage of this method is its applicability and accuracy for all types of monolithic anatomical structures.

Keywords: anatomy, e-learning, virtual reality, 3D model marking

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Authors: Shahid Nishat, Keith Thomas

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E-government initiatives attract substantial public investments around the world. These investments are based on the premise of digital transformation of the public services, improved efficiency and transparency, and citizen participation in the social democratic processes. However, many e-Government projects, especially in developing countries, fail to achieve their intended outcomes, and a strong disparity exists between the investments made and outcomes achieved, often referred to as e-Government paradox. Further, there is lack of research on evaluating the impacts of e-Government in terms of public value it creates, which ultimately drives usage. This study aims to address these gaps by identifying key enablers of e-Government success and by proposing a public value based framework to examine impact of e-Government services. The study will extend Delone and McLean Information System (IS) Success model by integrating Technology Readiness (TR) characteristics to develop an integrated success model. Level of analysis will be mobile government applications, and the framework will be empirically tested using quantitative methods. The research will add to the literature on e-Government success and will be beneficial for governments, especially in developing countries aspiring to improve public services through the use of Information Communication Technologies (ICT).

Keywords: e-Government, IS success model, public value, technology adoption, technology readiness

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Authors: Qamar J. A. Khan, Fatma Ahmed Al Kharousi

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A prey-predator eco-epidemiological model is studied where transmission of the disease between infected and uninfected prey is nonlinear. The interaction of the predator with infected and uninfected prey species depend on their numerical superiority. Harvesting of both uninfected and infected prey is considered. Stability analysis is carried out for equilibrium values. Using the parameter µ, the death rate of infected prey as a bifurcation parameter it is shown that Hopf bifurcation could occur. The theoretical results are compared with numerical results for different set of parameters.

Keywords: bifurcation, optimal harvesting, predator, prey, stability

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Authors: Mojtaba Taheri, Saied Reza Ameli

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In this research, we have calculated the effect of membership in international climate change treaties for 20 developed countries based on the human development index (HDI) and compared this effect with the process of pollutant reduction in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory. For this purpose, the data related to The real GDP per capita with 2010 constant prices is selected from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. Ecological Footprint (ECOFP) is the amount of biologically productive land needed to meet human needs and absorb carbon dioxide emissions. It is measured in global hectares (gha), and the data retrieved from the Global Ecological Footprint (2021) database will be used, and we will proceed by examining step by step and performing several series of targeted statistical regressions. We will examine the effects of different control variables, including Energy Consumption Structure (ECS) will be counted as the share of fossil fuel consumption in total energy consumption and will be extracted from The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2021) database. Energy Production (EP) refers to the total production of primary energy by all energy-producing enterprises in one country at a specific time. It is a comprehensive indicator that shows the capacity of energy production in the country, and the data for its 2021 version, like the Energy Consumption Structure, is obtained from (EIA). Financial development (FND) is defined as the ratio of private credit to GDP, and to some extent based on the stock market value, also as a ratio to GDP, and is taken from the (WDI) 2021 version. Trade Openness (TRD) is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of GDP, and we use the (WDI) data (2021) version. Urbanization (URB) is defined as the share of the urban population in the total population, and for this data, we used the (WDI) data source (2021) version. The descriptive statistics of all the investigated variables are presented in the results section. Related to the theories of sustainable development, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is more significant in the period of study. In this research, we use more than fourteen targeted statistical regressions to purify the net effects of each of the approaches and examine the results.

Keywords: climate change, globalization, environmental economics, sustainable development, international climate treaty

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Authors: Carmen Sica, Elena M. Scalisi, Sara Ignoto, Ludovica Palmeri, Martina Contino, Greta Ferruggia, Antonio Salvaggio, Santi C. Pavone, Gino Sorbello, Loreto Di Donato, Roberta Pecoraro, Maria V. Brundo

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Recently, a rise in the use of wireless internet technologies such as Wi-Fi and 5G routers/modems have been demonstrated. These devices emit a considerable amount of electromagnetic radiation (EMR), which could interact with the male reproductive system either by thermal or non-thermal mechanisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the direct in vitro influence of 5G radiation on sperm quality in Mytilus galloprovincialis, considered an excellent model for reproduction studies. The experiments at 27 GHz were conducted by using a no commercial high gain pyramidal horn antenna. To evaluate the specific absorption rate (SAR), a numerical simulation has been performed. The resulting incident power density was significantly lower than the power density limit of 10 mW/cm2 set by the international guidelines as a limit for nonthermal effects above 6 GHz. However, regarding temperature measurements of the aqueous sample, it has been verified an increase of 0.2°C, compared to the control samples. This very low-temperature increase couldn’t interfere with experiments. For experiments, sperm samples taken from sexually mature males of Mytilus galloprovincialis were placed in artificial seawater, salinity 30 + 1% and pH 8.3 filtered with a 0.2 m filter. After evaluating the number and quality of spermatozoa, sperm cells were exposed to electromagnetic fields a 27GHz. The effect of exposure on sperm motility and quality was evaluated after 10, 20, 30 and 40 minutes with a light microscope and also using the Eosin test to verify the vitality of the gametes. All the samples were performed in triplicate and statistical analysis was carried out using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Turkey test for multiple comparations of means to determine differences of sperm motility. A significant decrease (30%) in sperm motility was observed after 10 minutes of exposure and after 30 minutes, all sperms were immobile and not vital. Due to little literature data about this topic, these results could be useful for further studies concerning a great diffusion of these new technologies.

Keywords: mussel, spermatozoa, sperm motility, millimeter waves

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Authors: Bambang Piscesa, Mario M. Attard, Dwi Presetya, Ali K. Samani

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A numerical strategy formulated using a plasticity approach is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover in reinforced concrete columns. The stage at which the concrete cover within reinforced concrete column spalls has a direct bearing on the load capacity. The concrete cover can prematurely spall before the full cross-section can be utilized if the concrete is very brittle under compression such as for very high strength concretes. If the confinement to the core is high enough, the column can achieve a higher peak load by utilizing the core. A numerical strategy is presented to model spalling of the concrete cover. Various numerical strategies are employed to model the behavior of reinforced concrete columns which include: (1) adjusting the material properties to incorporate restrained shrinkage; (2) modifying the plastic dilation rate in the presence of the tensile pressure; (3) adding a tension cut-off failure surface and (4) giving the concrete cover region and the column core different material properties. Numerical comparisons against experimental results are carried out that shown excellent agreement with the experimental results and justify the use of the proposed strategies to predict the axial load capacity of reinforce concrete columns.

Keywords: spalling, concrete, plastic dilation, reinforced concrete columns

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Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

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In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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Authors: Xiaowei Zhang, Min Xu, Saeid Habibi, Fengjun Yan, Ryan Ahmed

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Recently, Electric Vehicles (EVs) have received extensive consideration since they offer a more sustainable and greener transportation alternative compared to fossil-fuel propelled vehicles. Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) batteries are increasingly being deployed in EVs because of their high energy density, high cell-level voltage, and low rate of self-discharge. Since Li-ion batteries represent the most expensive component in the EV powertrain, accurate monitoring and control strategies must be executed to ensure their prolonged lifespan. The Battery Management System (BMS) has to accurately estimate parameters such as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), State-of-Health (SOH), and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). In order for the BMS to estimate these parameters, an accurate and control-oriented battery model has to work collaboratively with a robust state and parameter estimation strategy. Since battery physical parameters, such as the internal resistance and diffusion coefficient change depending on the battery state-of-life (SOL), the BMS has to be adaptive to accommodate for this change. In this paper, an extensive battery aging study has been conducted over 12-months period on 5.4 Ah, 3.7 V Lithium polymer cells. Instead of using fixed charging/discharging aging cycles at fixed C-rate, a set of real-world driving scenarios have been used to age the cells. The test has been interrupted every 5% capacity degradation by a set of reference performance tests to assess the battery degradation and track model parameters. As battery ages, the combined model parameters are optimized and tracked in an offline mode over the entire batteries lifespan. Based on the optimized model, a state and parameter estimation strategy based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the relatively new Smooth Variable Structure Filter (SVSF) have been applied to estimate the SOC at various states of life.

Keywords: lithium-ion batteries, genetic algorithm optimization, battery aging test, parameter identification

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Authors: Yating Yang, Xue Zhang, Chengli Zhao

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Technology capability refers to the comprehensive ability that influences all factors of technological development. Among them, researchers’ resources serve as the foundation and driving force for technology capability, representing a significant manifestation of a country/region's technological capability. Therefore, the cross-border transfer behavior of researchers to some extent reflects changes in technological capability between countries/regions, providing a unique research perspective for technological capability assessment. This paper proposes a technological capability assessment model based on personnel transfer networks, which consists of a researchers' transfer network model and a country/region role evolution model. It evaluates the changes in a country/region's technological capability roles from the perspective of researcher transfers and conducts an analysis using artificial intelligence as a case study based on literature data. The study reveals that the United States, China, and the European Union are core nodes, and identifies the role evolution characteristics of several major countries/regions.

Keywords: transfer network, technological capability assessment, central-peripheral structure, role evolution

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Authors: Ariel B. Domagsang

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This study dealt with the physical fitness activities for elementary school pupils of Matacon Elementary School, Polangui South District, Albay Division are presented in this chapter. Specifically, it looked into the pre-post test performance based on the Physical Fitness Test which were subjected to statistical significant test of difference including health- and skill-related improvement. Finally, it came up with physical fitness activities to improve the physical fitness performance of the pupils. The descriptive method through survey using questionnaire-checklist, unstructured interview and document(ary) analysis were utilized in this research. There were 171 grades five and six pupil participants in this undertaking.

Keywords: Matakon, fitness acitivities, elementary schools, physical fitness of pupils

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Hakimeh Sharififard, Mansooreh Soleimani

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In this work, the magnetic activated carbon nanocomposite (Fe-CAC) has been synthesized by anchorage iron hydr(oxide) nanoparticles onto commercial activated carbon (CAC) surface and characterized using BET, XRF, SEM techniques. The influence of various removal parameters such as pH, contact time and initial concentration of vanadium on vanadium removal was evaluated using CAC and Fe-CAC in batch method. The sorption isotherms were studied using Langmuir, Freundlich and Dubinin–Radushkevich (D–R) isotherm models. These equilibrium data were well described by the Freundlich model. Results showed that CAC had the vanadium adsorption capacity of 37.87 mg/g, while the Fe-AC was able to adsorb 119.01 mg/g of vanadium. Kinetic data was found to confirm pseudo-second-order kinetic model for both adsorbents.

Keywords: magnetic activated carbon, remove, vanadium, nanocomposite, freundlich

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Authors: Akram Mahdaviparsa, Tamera McCuen, Vahideh Karimimansoob

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Fire service is responsible for protecting life, assets, and natural resources from fire and other hazardous incidents. Search and rescue in unfamiliar buildings is a vital part of firefighters’ responsibilities. Providing firefighters with precise building information in an easy-to-understand format is a potential solution for mitigating the negative consequences of fire hazards. The negative effect of insufficient knowledge about a building’s indoor environment impedes firefighters’ capabilities and leads to lost property. A data rich building information modeling (BIM) is a potentially useful source in three-dimensional (3D) visualization and data/information storage for fire emergency response. Therefore, this research’s purpose is prioritizing the required information for firefighters from the most important information to the least important. A survey was carried out with firefighters working in the Norman Fire Department to obtain the importance of each building information item. The results show that “the location of exit doors, windows, corridors, elevators, and stairs”, “material of building elements”, and “building data” are the three most important information specified by firefighters. The results also implied that the 2D model of architectural, structural and way finding is more understandable in comparison with the 3D model, while the 3D model of MEP system could convey more information than the 2D model. Furthermore, color in visualization can help firefighters to understand the building information easier and quicker. Sufficient internal consistency of all responses was proven through developing the Pearson Correlation Matrix and obtaining Cronbach’s alpha of 0.916. Therefore, the results of this study are reliable and could be applied to the population.

Keywords: BIM, building fire response, ranking, visualization

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Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu

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Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.

Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing

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Authors: Ruchi Pathania, Ahmad Ahmad, Shireesh Srivastava

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Cyanobacteria is a promising microbe that can capture and convert atmospheric CO₂ and light into valuable industrial bio-products like biofuels, biodegradable plastics, etc. Among their most attractive traits are faster autotrophic growth, whole year cultivation using non-arable land, high photosynthetic activity, much greater biomass and productivity and easy for genetic manipulations. Cyanobacteria store carbon in the form of glycogen which can be hydrolyzed to release glucose and fermented to form bioethanol or other valuable products. Marine cyanobacterial species are especially attractive for countries with scarcity of freshwater. We recently identified a marine native cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. BDU 130192 which has good growth rate and high level of polyglucans accumulation compared to Synechococcus PCC 7002. In this study, firstly we sequenced the whole genome and the sequences were annotated using the RAST server. Genome scale metabolic model (GSMM) was reconstructed through COBRA toolbox. GSMM is a computational representation of the metabolic reactions and metabolites of the target strain. GSMMs construction through the application of Flux Balance Analysis (FBA), which uses external nutrient uptake rates and estimate steady state intracellular and extracellular reaction fluxes, including maximization of cell growth. The model, which we have named isyn942, includes 942 reactions and 913 metabolites having 831 metabolic, 78 transport and 33 exchange reactions. The phylogenetic tree obtained by BLAST search revealed that the strain was a close relative of Synechococcus PCC 7002. The flux balance analysis (FBA) was applied on the model iSyn942 to predict the theoretical yields (mol product produced/mol CO₂ consumed) for native and non-native products like acetone, butanol, etc. under phototrophic condition by applying metabolic engineering strategies. The reported strain can be a viable strain for biotechnological applications, and the model will be helpful to researchers interested in understanding the metabolism as well as to design metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced production of various bioproducts.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, flux balance analysis, genome scale metabolic model, metabolic engineering

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Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

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The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

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Authors: P. Mambanga, T. G. Tshitangano, H. Akinsola

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Background: Unintended pregnancies constitute a most serious public health challenge to women to an extent that they sometimes end in illegal abortions resulting in adverse consequences. However, the introduction of emergency contraception has served as the last chance for women to avoid unintended pregnancies, though, in countries like Zimbabwe the cause for underutilisation of emergency contraception has been hardly investigated. Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitude and practice of female students regarding emergency contraception among in preventing unintended pregnancy. Methodology: A quantitative approach using descriptive cross-sectional survey design was conducted among 319 stratified random sampled female university students of Midland State University, Zimbabwe. Self-administered close-ended questionnaire was used to collect the data. To ensure validity, the development of the instrument was guided by a wide range of literature and the inputs of experts. The instrument was retested for reliability and the responses will be comparing using Cronbach’s alpha which yielded high reliability alpha (α) value of 0.84. Data was coded and entered into a computer using Microsoft Excel 2010 and analysed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 22.0. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse data in the form of cross tabulation and the results were presented in table, graphs and pie charts. Results: The results indicated that apart from all sources of information about EC, mass media has shown to be the most famous. Although female students knows about EC, the knowledge about effective level and correct use of EC poor. The attitudes of female students at MSU are unfavourable for EC as they gave reasons like EC promotes promiscuity and it can pose risk. The practice of EC at MSU is low with only 47% of respondents said they have once use EC. Conclusion and recommendation: The study concluded the lack of actual knowledge about EC which has directly influenced attitudes and practices. The study concluded that there MSU female students has fair knowledge about EC which has resulted in negative and attitudes towards EC with few EC practices. The study, therefore, recommends the adoption and use of Health Belief Model approach in promoting the young to use EC to prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Keywords: emergency contraception, knowledge, attitude, practice, female students

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Authors: Mauricio E. Cruz, Ilse Cervantes, Manuel J. Fabela

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The evaluation of the maneuverability of road vehicles is generally carried out through the use of specialized computer programs due to the advantages they offer compared to the experimental method. These programs are based on purely geometric considerations of the characteristics of the vehicles, such as main dimensions, the location of the axles, and points of articulation, without considering parameters such as weight distribution and magnitude, tire properties, etc. In this paper, we address the problem of maneuverability in a semi-trailer truck to navigate urban streets, maneuvering yards, and parking lots, using the Ackerman principle to propose a kinematic model that, through geometric considerations, it is possible to determine the space necessary to maneuver safely. The model was experimentally validated by conducting maneuverability tests with an articulated vehicle. The measurements were made through a GPS that allows us to know the position, trajectory, and speed of the vehicle, an inertial motion unit (IMU) that allows measuring the accelerations and angular speeds in the semi-trailer, and an instrumented steering wheel that allows measuring the angle of rotation of the flywheel, the angular velocity and the torque applied to the flywheel. To obtain the steering angle of the tires, a parameterization of the complete travel of the steering wheel and its equivalent in the tires was carried out. For the tests, 3 different angles were selected, and 3 turns were made for each angle in both directions of rotation (left and right turn). The results showed that the proposed kinematic model achieved 95% accuracy for speeds below 5 km / h. The experiments revealed that that tighter maneuvers increased significantly the space required and that the vehicle maneuverability was limited by the size of the semi-trailer. The maneuverability was also tested as a function of the vehicle load and 3 different load levels we used: light, medium, and heavy. It was found that the internal turning radii also increased with the load, probably due to the changes in the tires' adhesion to the pavement since heavier loads had larger contact wheel-road surfaces. The load was found as an important factor affecting the precision of the model (up to 30%), and therefore I should be considered. The model obtained is expected to be used to improve maneuverability through a robust control system.

Keywords: articuled vehicle, experimental validation, kinematic model, maneuverability, semi-trailer truck

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Authors: Zongyan Li, Matt Best

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This paper presents an optimization method for reducing the number of input channels and the complexity of the feed-forward NARX neural network (NN) without compromising the accuracy of the NN model. By utilizing the correlation analysis method, the most significant regressors are selected to form the input layer of the NN structure. An application of vehicle dynamic model identification is also presented in this paper to demonstrate the optimization technique and the optimal input layer structure and the optimal number of neurons for the neural network is investigated.

Keywords: correlation analysis, F-ratio, levenberg-marquardt, MSE, NARX, neural network, optimisation

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Authors: J. P. P. Andrade, V. A. F. Campos

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This work presents an application of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) for the robust control of an F-16 aircraft through an algorithm ensuring the damping factor to the closed loop system. The results show that the zero and gain settings are sufficient to ensure robust performance and stability with respect to various operating points. The technique used is the pole placement, which aims to put the system in closed loop poles in a specific region of the complex plane. Test results using a dynamic model of the F-16 aircraft are presented and discussed.

Keywords: F-16 aircraft, linear matrix inequalities, pole placement, robust control

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Authors: Abdul Kader

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This paper attempts to investigate several contributory factors to recent volatility in the Islamic Banking sector of Bangladesh. In particular, the study explores corporate governance, credit management, credit regulations, inept board of directors, using religious sentiment as a means to deceive general people, and the degree of political interference as potential contributory factors. To find the correlation among different variables, semi-structured questionnaires were distributed among the clients, bank managers, some Banking scholars and ex-members of the board of directors of three Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Later, ten interviews were collected from key informants to gain in-depth information about the present mismanagement of Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. After then, data were analyzed using statistical software and substantiated by secondary sources like newspapers, reports and investigative reports aired in screen media. The paper found a correlation between almost all contributory factors and recent unstable conditions in the Islamic banking sector. After performing regression analysis, this paper found a more significant relationship between some of the contributory factors with Banking volatility than others. For instance, credit management, inept board of directors, depriving customers of proving no profit in the name of business—no interest-- and political interference have a strong significant positive correlation with the present poor condition of Islamic Banking. This paper concludes that while internal management is important in recovering the losses, the government needs to ensure framing better policy for the Islamic Banking system, Central Bank needs to supervise and monitor all Islamic banks meticulously and loan receivers must go through the impartial evaluation and approved by the representatives of the Central Shariah Board. This paper also recommends that there is a need to strengthen the auditing system and improve regulatory oversight of the Islamic Banks in Bangladesh. Policy recommendations that this paper put forward could provide an outline for dealing with the existing challenging condition of Islamic Banks and these could be applied to similar problems in other countries where the Islamic Banking model exists.

Keywords: Islamic bank, volatility in banking sector, shariah law, credit management, political interference

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Authors: Massy Guillaume

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Introduction: The implementation of creativity in educational policies or curricula raises several issues, including the evaluation of creativity and the means to do so. This doctoral research focuses on the appropriation and transposition of creativity assessment models by future teachers. Our objective is to identify the elements of the models that are most transferable to practice in order to improve their implementation in the students' curriculum while seeking to create a new model for assessing creativity in the school environment. Methods: In order to meet our objective, this preliminary quantitative exploratory study by questionnaire was conducted at two points in the participants' training: at the beginning of the training module and throughout the practical work. The population is composed of 40 people of diverse origins with an average age of 26 (s:8,623) years. In order to be as close as possible to our research objective and to test our questionnaires, we set up a pre-test phase during the spring semester of 2022. Results: The results presented focus on aspects of the OECD Creative Competencies Assessment Model. Overall, 72% of participants support the model's focus on skill levels as appropriate for the school context. More specifically, the data indicate that the separation of production and process in the rubric facilitates observation by the assessor. From the point of view of transposing the grid into teaching practice, the participants emphasised that production is easier to plan and observe in students than in the process. This difference is reinforced by a lack of knowledge about certain concepts such as innovation or risktaking in schools. Finally, the qualitative results indicate that the addition of multiple levels of competencies to the OECD rubric would allow for better implementation in the classroom. Conclusion: The identification by the students of the elements allowing the evaluation of creativity in the school environment generates an innovative approach to the training contents. These first data, from the test phase of our research, demonstrate the difficulty that exists between the implementation of an evaluation model in a training program and its potential transposition by future teachers.

Keywords: creativity, evaluation, schooling, training

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Adebayo J. Julius, Oluremi N. Iluyomade

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Livelihood in Nigeria is a paradox of poverty amidst plenty. The Country is endowed with a good climate for agriculture, naturally growing fruit trees and vegetables, and undomesticated water resources. In spite of all its endowment, Nigeria continues to live in poverty year in year out. Rural communities adopted for this study are Ido, Omi-Adio, Onigambari, Okija and Lambata, 500 questionnaires were administered to solicit information from the respondents. This study focused on comparative analysis of the utilization of community informatics for sustainable livelihoods through agriculture. The idea projected in this study is that small strategic changes in the modus operandi of social informatics can have a significant impact on the sustainability of livelihoods. This paper carefully explored the theories of community informatics and its efficacies in dealing with sustainability issues. This study identified, described and evaluates the roles of community informatics in some sectors of the economy, different analytical tools to benchmark the influence of social informatics in agriculture against what is obtainable in agricultural sectors of the economy were used. It further employed comparative analysis to build a case model for sustainable livelihood in agriculture through community informatics.

Keywords: informatics, model, rural community, livelihood, Nigeria

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Authors: Faidon Kyriakou, William Dempster, David Nash

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Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) is a major life-threatening pathology for which modern approaches reduce the need for open surgery through the use of stenting. The success of stenting though is sometimes jeopardized by the final position of the stent graft inside the human artery which may result in migration, endoleaks or blood flow occlusion. Herein, a finite element (FE) model of the commercial medical device AnacondaTM (Vascutek, Terumo) has been developed and validated in order to create a numerical tool able to provide useful clinical insight before the surgical procedure takes place. The AnacondaTM device consists of a series of NiTi rings sewn onto woven polyester fabric, a structure that despite its column stiffness is flexible enough to be used in very tortuous geometries. For the purposes of this study, a FE model of the device was built in Abaqus® (version 6.13-2) with the combination of beam, shell and surface elements; the choice of these building blocks was made to keep the computational cost to a minimum. The validation of the numerical model was performed by comparing the deployed position of a full stent graft device inside a constructed AAA with a duplicate set-up in Abaqus®. Specifically, an AAA geometry was built in CAD software and included regions of both high and low tortuosity. Subsequently, the CAD model was 3D printed into a transparent aneurysm, and a stent was deployed in the lab following the steps of the clinical procedure. Images on the frontal and sagittal planes of the experiment allowed the comparison with the results of the numerical model. By overlapping the experimental and computational images, the mean and maximum distances between the rings of the two models were measured in the longitudinal, and the transverse direction and, a 5mm upper bound was set as a limit commonly used by clinicians when working with simulations. The two models showed very good agreement of their spatial positioning, especially in the less tortuous regions. As a result, and despite the inherent uncertainties of a surgical procedure, the FE model allows confidence that the final position of the stent graft, when deployed in vivo, can also be predicted with significant accuracy. Moreover, the numerical model run in just a few hours, an encouraging result for applications in the clinical routine. In conclusion, the efficient modelling of a complicated structure which combines thin scaffolding and fabric has been demonstrated to be feasible. Furthermore, the prediction capabilities of the location of each stent ring, as well as the global shape of the graft, has been shown. This can allow surgeons to better plan their procedures and medical device manufacturers to optimize their designs. The current model can further be used as a starting point for patient specific CFD analysis.

Keywords: AAA, efficiency, finite element analysis, stent deployment

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Authors: Michael Campbell, Malaz Elsaddig, Kevin Jones

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Background: Despite encouraging progress, global maternal mortality has remained stubbornly high since the declaration of the Millennium development goals. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for well over half of maternal deaths with Post-Partum Haemorrhage (PPH) being the lead cause. ‘In house’ simulation training delivered by local doctors may be a sustainable approach for improving emergency obstetric care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of a Train-the-Trainer (TtT) model in a rural Ugandan hospital to ascertain whether it can feasibly improve practitioners’ management of PPH. Methods: Three Ugandan doctors underwent a training course to enable them to design and deliver simulation training. These doctors used MamaNatalie® models to simulate PPH scenarios for midwives, nurses and medical students. The main outcome was improvement in participants’ knowledge and confidence, assessed using self-reported scores on a 10-point scale. Results: The TtT model produced significant improvements in the confidence and knowledge scores of the ten participants. The mean confidence score rose significantly (p=0.0005) from 6.4 to 8.6 following the simulation training. There was also a significant increase in the mean knowledge score from 7.2 to 9.0 (p=0.04). Medical students demonstrated the greatest overall increase in confidence scores whilst increases in knowledge scores were largest amongst nurses. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that a TtT model can be used in a low resource setting to improve healthcare professionals’ confidence and knowledge in managing obstetric emergencies. This Train-the-Trainer model represents a sustainable approach to addressing skill deficits in low resource settings. We believe that its expansion across healthcare institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa will help to reduce the region’s high maternal mortality rate and step closer to achieving the ambitions of the Millennium development goals.

Keywords: low resource setting, post-partum haemorrhage, simulation training, train the trainer

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma

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Circumference measurements are important because they are easily obtained values for the identification of the weight gain without determining body fat. They may give meaningful information about the varying stages of obesity. Besides, some formulas may be derived from a number of body circumference measurements to estimate body fat. Waist (WC), hip (HC) and neck (NC) circumferences are currently the most frequently used measurements. The aim of this study was to develop a formula derived from these three anthropometric measurements, each giving a valuable information independently, to question whether their combined power within a formula was capable of being helpful for the differential diagnosis of morbid obesity without metabolic syndrome (MetS) from MetS. One hundred and eighty seven children were recruited from the pediatrics outpatient clinic of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University Faculty of Medicine. The parents of the participants were informed about asked to fill and sign the consent forms. The study was carried out according to the Helsinki Declaration. The study protocol was approved by the institutional non-interventional ethics committee. The study population was divided into four groups as normal-body mass index (N-BMI), obese (OB), morbid obese (MO) and MetS, which were composed of 35, 44, 75 and 33 children, respectively. Age- and gender-adjusted BMI percentile values were used for the classification of groups. The children in MetS group were selected based upon the nature of the MetS components described as MetS criteria. Anthropometric measurements, laboratory analysis and statistical evaluation confined to study population were performed. Body mass index values were calculated. A circumference index, advanced Donma circumference index (ADCI) was introduced as WC*HC/NC. The statistical significance degree was chosen as p value smaller than 0.05. Body mass index values were 17.7±2.8, 24.5±3.3, 28.8±5.7, 31.4±8.0 kg/m2, for N-BMI, OB, MO, MetS groups, respectively. The corresponding values for ADCI were 165±35, 240±42, 270±55, and 298±62. Significant differences were obtained between BMI values of N-BMI and OB, MO, MetS groups (p=0.001). Obese group BMI values also differed from MO group BMI values (p=0.001). However, the increase in MetS group compared to MO group was not significant (p=0.091). For the new index, significant differences were obtained between N-BMI and OB, MO, MetS groups (p=0.001). Obese group ADCI values also differed from MO group ADCI values (p=0.015). A significant difference between MO and MetS groups was detected (p=0.043). The correlation coefficient value and the significance check of the correlation was found between BMI and ADCI as r=0.0883 and p=0.001 upon consideration of all participants. In conclusion, in spite of the strong correlation between BMI and ADCI values obtained when all groups were considered, ADCI, but not BMI, was the index, which was capable of differentiating cases with morbid obesity from cases with morbid obesity and MetS.

Keywords: anthropometry, body mass index, child, circumference, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: André Augusto Ceballos Melo

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Design to facilitate the recognition of congruent prosthetic movements, context-to-motion translations guided by image, verbal prompt, users nonverbal communication such as facial expressions, gestures, paralinguistics, scene context, and object recognition contributes to this process though it can also be applied to other tasks, such as walking, Prosthetic limbs as assistive technology through gestures, sound codes, signs, facial, body expressions, and scene context The context-to-motion model is a machine learning approach that is designed to improve the control and dexterity of prosthetic limbs. It works by using sensory input from the prosthetic limb to learn about the dynamics of the environment and then using this information to generate smooth, stable movements. This can help to improve the performance of the prosthetic limb and make it easier for the user to perform a wide range of tasks. There are several key benefits to using the context-to-motion model for prosthetic limb control. First, it can help to improve the naturalness and smoothness of prosthetic limb movements, which can make them more comfortable and easier to use for the user. Second, it can help to improve the accuracy and precision of prosthetic limb movements, which can be particularly useful for tasks that require fine motor control. Finally, the context-to-motion model can be trained using a variety of different sensory inputs, which makes it adaptable to a wide range of prosthetic limb designs and environments. Stable diffusion is a machine learning method that can be used to improve the control and stability of movements in robotic and prosthetic systems. It works by using sensory feedback to learn about the dynamics of the environment and then using this information to generate smooth, stable movements. One key aspect of stable diffusion is that it is designed to be robust to noise and uncertainty in the sensory feedback. This means that it can continue to produce stable, smooth movements even when the sensory data is noisy or unreliable. To implement stable diffusion in a robotic or prosthetic system, it is typically necessary to first collect a dataset of examples of the desired movements. This dataset can then be used to train a machine learning model to predict the appropriate control inputs for a given set of sensory observations. Once the model has been trained, it can be used to control the robotic or prosthetic system in real-time. The model receives sensory input from the system and uses it to generate control signals that drive the motors or actuators responsible for moving the system. Overall, the use of the context-to-motion model has the potential to significantly improve the dexterity and performance of prosthetic limbs, making them more useful and effective for a wide range of users Hand Gesture Body Language Influence Communication to social interaction, offering a possibility for users to maximize their quality of life, social interaction, and gesture communication.

Keywords: stable diffusion, neural interface, smart prosthetic, augmenting

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