Search results for: predicting models

Authors: Honorio Salmeron Valdivieso, Andy Keane, David Toal

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In the area of mechanical reverse engineering, processes often encounter difficulties capturing small, highly localized surface information. This could be the case if a physical turbine was 3D scanned for lifecycle management or robust design purposes, with interest on eroded areas or scratched coating. The limitation partly is due to insufficient automated frameworks for handling -localized - surface information during the reverse engineering pipeline. We have developed a tool for blending surface patches with arbitrary irregularities into a base body (e.g. a CAD solid). The approach aims to transfer small surface features while preserving their shape and relative placement by using a multi-resolution scheme and rigid deformations. Automating this process enables the inclusion of outsourced surface information in CAD models, including samples prepared in mesh handling software, or raw scan information discarded in the early stages of reverse engineering reconstruction.

Keywords: application lifecycle management, multiresolution deformation, reverse engineering, robust design, surface blending

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Authors: K. H. Reeta, Bhavana Prasher, Mitali Mukerji, Dhwani Dholakia, Sangeeta Khanna, Archana Vats, Shivam Pandey, Sandeep Seth, Subir Kumar Maulik

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Introduction Research has demonstrated a connection between coronary artery disease (CAD) and genetics. We did a deep literature mining using both bioinformatics and manual efforts to identify the susceptible polymorphisms in coronary artery disease. Further, the study sought to validate these findings in an Asian population. Methodology In first phase, we used an automated pipeline which organizes and presents structured information on SNPs, Population and Diseases. The information was obtained by applying Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to approximately 28 million PubMed abstracts. To accomplish this, we utilized Python scripts to extract and curate disease-related data, filter out false positives, and categorize them into 24 hierarchical groups using named Entity Recognition (NER) algorithms. From the extensive research conducted, a total of 466 unique PubMed Identifiers (PMIDs) and 694 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) related to coronary artery disease (CAD) were identified. To refine the selection process, a thorough manual examination of all the studies was carried out. Specifically, SNPs that demonstrated susceptibility to CAD and exhibited a positive Odds Ratio (OR) were selected, and a final pool of 324 SNPs was compiled. The next phase involved validating the identified SNPs in DNA samples of 96 CAD patients and 37 healthy controls from Indian population using Global Screening Array. ResultsThe results exhibited out of 324, only 108 SNPs were expressed, further 4 SNPs showed significant difference of minor allele frequency in cases and controls. These were rs187238 of IL-18 gene, rs731236 of VDR gene, rs11556218 of IL16 gene and rs5882 of CETP gene. Prior researches have reported association of these SNPs with various pathways like endothelial damage, susceptibility of vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms, and reduction of HDL-cholesterol levels, ultimately leading to the development of CAD. Among these, only rs731236 had been studied in Indian population and that too in diabetes and vitamin D deficiency. For the first time, these SNPs were reported to be associated with CAD in Indian population. Conclusion: This pool of 324 SNP s is a unique kind of resource that can help to uncover risk associations in CAD. Here, we validated in Indian population. Further, validation in different populations may offer valuable insights and contribute to the development of a screening tool and may help in enabling the implementation of primary prevention strategies targeted at the vulnerable population.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, single nucleotide polymorphism, susceptible SNP, bioinformatics

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Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Muhammad Usman Sardar, Muhammad Haroon Nadeem, Shahbaz Ahmad, Ashiq Hussain

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The marketing of solar photovoltaic energy systems has one of the monetary settlements to address the higher rate to pay in advance with the purchase of two decades worth of electricity services. To deploy solar photovoltaic technologies and energy setups in areas, it’s important to create a system of credit that can ensure the availability of subsidized capital and commercial conditions for the society. Meanings of energy in developing countries like Pakistan were strongly prompted by marketable interests and industrialization trend influences within their culture. It’s going to be essential to prepare the concerned proceeding models of energy development strategies. This paper discuss the impact and share of environmental friendly solar photo-voltaic energy, researching to find the most appropriate alternate solutions for balance the energy demand and supply and current progressive position in different countries regarding to development and deployment. Based on the literature reviews, its presence found that most beneficial and concerning policies have implemented in several countries around the globe.

Keywords: photovoltaic marketing and pricing, renewable energy technology, solar photovoltaic, SPV

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Authors: S. C. Gupta

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The wind flow over several buildings lying in close vicinity in urban areas generates flow interference effects causing problems related to pedestrian comfort and ventilation within the buildings. This promoted a lot of research interest in the recent years. Airflow over a building creates a positive pressure zone on the upstream side and negative pressure zones (cavities or eddy zones) on the roof and all other sides. Large eddy simulation model is used along with sub-grid-scale model to numerically simulate turbulence for this purpose. The basis of flow outside the building is the pressure difference (between the wind and building interior). Wind Tunnel models are fabricated and tested in the subsonic wind tunnel. Theoretical results are compared with the experimental data. Newer configuration is tried for favorable effects in recovering static pressure values. Results obtained are seen very encouraging. The proposed exhaustive research investigation through numerical simulations and the experimental work are described and some interesting findings are brought out.

Keywords: wind flow, buildings, static pressure wind tunnel testing, CFD

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Authors: Daniel O'Shea, Mario M. Attard, David C. Kellermann

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In this paper, we propose a hyperelastic strain energy function that maps isotopic hyperelastic constitutive laws for the use of orthotropic materials without the use of structural tensors or any kind of fiber vector, or the use of standard invariants. In particular, we focus on neo-Hookean class of models and represent them using an invariant-free formulation. To achieve this, we revise the invariant-free formulation of isotropic hyperelasticity. The formulation uses quadruple contractions between fourth-order tensors, rather than scalar products of scalar invariants. We also propose a new decomposition of the orthotropic Hookean stiffness tensor into two fourth-order Lamé tensors that collapse down to the classic Lamé parameters for isotropic continua. The resulting orthotropic hyperelastic model naturally maintains all of the advanced properties of the isotropic counterparts, and similarly collapse back down to their isotropic form by nothing more than equality of parameters in all directions (isotropy). Comparisons are made with large strain experimental results for transversely isotropic rubber type materials under tension.

Keywords: finite strain, hyperelastic, invariants, orthotropic

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Authors: El Amine Nebbat

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A void is a dust-free region in dusty plasma, a medium formed of electrons, ions, and charged dust (grain). This structure appears in multiple experimental works. Several researchers have developed models to understand it. Recently, Nebbat and Annou proposed a nonlinear model that describes the void in non-viscos plasma, where the particles of the dusty plasma are treated as a fluid. In fact, the void appears even in dense dusty plasma where viscosity exists through the strong interaction between grains, so in this work, we augment the nonlinear model of Nebbat and Annou by introducing viscosity into the fluid equations. The analysis of the data of the numerical resolution confirms the important effect of this parameter (viscosity). The study revealed that the viscosity increases the dimension of the void for certain dimensions of the grains, and its effect on the value of the density of the grains at the boundary of the void is inversely proportional to their radii, i.e., this density increase for submicron grains and decrease for others. Finally, this parameter reduces the rings of dust density which surround the void.

Keywords: voids, dusty plasmas, variable charge, density, viscosity

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Authors: Khaled Benyounes, Abderrahmane Mellak

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The rheology of aqueous solutions of polyelectrolyte (polyanionic cellulose, PAC) at high molecular weight was investigated using a controlled stress rheometer. Several rheological measurements; viscosity measurements, creep compliance tests at a constant low shear stress and oscillation experiments have been performed. The concentrations ranged by weight from 0.01 to 2.5% of PAC. It was found that the aqueous solutions of PAC do not exhibit a yield stress, the flow curves of PAC over a wide range of shear rate (0 to 1000 s-1) could be described by the cross model and the Williamson models. The critical concentrations of polymer c* and c** have been estimated. The dynamic moduli, i.e., storage modulus (G’) and loss modulus (G’’) of the polymer have been determined at frequency sweep from 0.01 to 10 Hz. At polymer concentration above 1%, the modulus G’ is superior to G’’. The relationships between the dynamic modulus and concentration of polymer have been established. The creep-recovery experiments demonstrated that polymer solutions show important viscoelastic properties of system water-PAC when the concentration of the polymer increases.

Keywords: polyanionic cellulose, viscosity, creep, oscillation, cross model

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Abrar R. Al-Hasan

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Despite the widespread use of social media by consumers and marketers, empirical research investigating their economic value in the healthcare industry still lags. This study explores the impact of the use of social media marketing efforts on a hospital's brand equity and, ultimately, consumer response. Using social media data from Twitter and Facebook, along with an online and offline survey methodology, data is analyzed using logistic regression models. A random sample of (728) residents of the Kuwaiti population is used. The results of this study found that social media marketing efforts (SMME) in terms of use and validation lead to higher hospital brand equity and in turn, patient loyalty and patient visit. The study highlights the impact of SMME on hospital brand equity and patient response. Healthcare organizations should guide their marketing efforts to better manage this new way of marketing and communicating with patients to enhance their consumer loyalty and financial performance.

Keywords: brand equity, healthcare marketing, patient visit, social media, SMME

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Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

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Building girth is important in building economics and mostly used in quantities take-off of various cost items. Literature suggests that the use of conceptual quantities can improve the accuracy of cost models. Girth or perimeter of a building can be used to estimate conceptual quantities. Hence, the current paper aims to model the perimeter-area function of buildings shapes for use at the conceptual design stage. A detailed literature review on existing building shape indexes was carried out. An empirical approach was used to study the relationship between area and the shortest length of a four-sided orthogonal polygon. Finally, a mathematical approach was used to establish the observed relationships. The empirical results obtained were in agreement with the mathematical model developed. A new equation termed “conceptual perimeter equation” is proposed. The equation can be used to estimate building envelope quantities such as external wall area, external finishing area and scaffolding area before sketch or detailed drawings are prepared.

Keywords: building envelope, building shape index, conceptual quantities, cost modelling, girth

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Authors: Francesco Coraci, Abdul-Hadi G. Abulrub

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Digital technology is transforming the landscape of the industrial sector at a precedential level by connecting people, processes, and machines in real-time. It represents the means for a new pathway to achieve innovative, dynamic competitive advantages, deliver unique customers’ values, and sustain critical relationships. Thus, success in a constantly changing environment is governed by the ability of an organization to revolutionize their business models, deliver innovative solutions, and capture values from big data analytics and insights. Businesses need to re-strategize operations and develop extra capabilities to cope with the necessity for additional flexibility and agility. The traditional “command and control” leadership style is structurally and operationally incompatible with the digital era. In this paper, the authors discuss how transformational leaders can act as a glue in the social, organizational context, which is crucial to enable the workforce and develop a psychological attachment to the digital vision.

Keywords: internet of things, strategy, change leadership, dynamic competitive advantage, digital transformation

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Authors: Dalia Hanna, Alexander Ferworn

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This research provides detailed proposed training modules for the public safety teams and, specifically, SAR teams responsible for search and rescue operations related to finding lost persons with dementia. Finding a lost person alive is the goal of this training. Time matters if a lost person is to be found alive. Finding lost people living with dementia is quite challenging, as they are unaware they are lost and will not seek help. Even a small contribution to SAR operations could contribute to saving a life. SAR operations will always require expert professional and human volunteers. However, we can reduce their time, save lives, and reduce costs by providing practical training that is based on real-life scenarios. The content for the proposed training is based on the research work done by the researcher in this area. This research has demonstrated that, based on utilizing drones, the algorithmic approach could support a successful search outcome. Understanding the behavior of the lost person, learning where they may be found, predicting their survivability, and automating the search are all contributions of this work, founded in theory and demonstrated in practice. In crisis management, human behavior constitutes a vital aspect in responding to the crisis; the speed and efficiency of the response often get affected by the difficulty of the context of the operation. Therefore, training in this area plays a significant role in preparing the crisis manager to manage the emotional aspects that lead to decision-making in these critical situations. Since it is crucial to gain high-level strategic choices and the ability to apply crisis management procedures, simulation exercises become central in training crisis managers to gain the needed skills to respond critically to these events. The training will enhance the responders’ ability to make decisions and anticipate possible consequences of their actions through flexible and revolutionary reasoning in responding to the crisis efficiently and quickly. As adult learners, search and rescue teams will be approaching training and learning by taking responsibility of the learning process, appreciate flexible learning and as contributors to the teaching and learning happening during that training. These are all characteristics of adult learning theories. The learner self-reflects, gathers information, collaborates with others and is self-directed. One of the learning strategies associated with adult learning is effective elaboration. It helps learners to remember information in the long term and use it in situations where it might be appropriate. It is also a strategy that can be taught easily and used with learners of different ages. Designers must design reflective activities to improve the student’s intrapersonal awareness.

Keywords: training, OER, dementia, drones, search and rescue, adult learning, UDL, instructional design

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Authors: Kumaran Narayanan, Andrew N. Osahor

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E. coli has been engineered by our group and by others as a vector to deliver DNA into cultured human and animal cells. However, so far conditions to improve gene delivery using this vector have not been investigated, resulting in a major gap in our understanding of the requirements for this vector to function optimally. Our group recently published novel data showing that simple addition of the DNA transfection reagent Lipofectamine increased the efficiency of the E. coli vector by almost 3-fold, providing the first strong evidence that further optimization of bactofection is possible. This presentation will discuss advances that demonstrate the effects of several intracellular strategies that improve the efficiency of this vector. Conditions that promote endosomal escape of internalized bacteria to evade lysosomal destruction after entry in the cell, a known obstacle limiting this vector, are elucidated. Further, treatments that increase bacterial lysis so that the vector can release its transgene into the mammalian environment for expression will be discussed. These experiments will provide valuable new insight to advance this E. coli system as an important class of vector technology for genetic correction of human disease models in cells and whole animals.

Keywords: DNA, E. coli, gene expression, vector

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Authors: Amina Salem Attia

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This east project consists in studying The child's mental health is the medium through which he expresses his thoughts, so pay attention to it because it is an essential building block in the process of building the child's future personality, where it gives him a balance between feelings and mental thoughts, and since the family is the child's first guardian, it greatly affects his personality and psychological development. As the disturbed environment contributes to behavioral deviations and mental disorders, unlike the stable environment, which plays a major role in developing the child's abilities and forming his psychologically sound attitudes, this should not be forgotten about the role of the school, it is also the second social institution after the family and has a major impact on the child's mental health as it contributes It is important in forming the child's personality and developing his skills and achieving his healthy psychological development, by providing him with psychological care and helping him to solve his problems by using models that are valid for the behavior that is taught to him or that the teachers present in their daily behavior with him.

Keywords: psychological, behavioral problems, children, school education

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Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

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Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, stochastic user equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning

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Authors: Maor Farid, Oleg Gendelman

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The following study deals with fluid vibration of a liquid in a partially filled vessel under periodic ground excitation. This external excitation might lead to hidraulic impact applied on the vessel inner walls. In order to model these sloshing dynamic regimes, several equivalent mechanical models were suggested in the literature, such as series of pendula or mass-spring systems that are able to impact the inner tank walls. In the following study, we use the latter methodology, use parameter values documented in literature corresponding to cylindrical tanks and consider structural elasticity of the tank. The hydraulic impulses are modeled by the high-exponent potential function. Additional system parameters are found with the help of Finite-Element (FE) analysis. Model-driven stress assessment method is developed. Finally, vibration mitigation performances of both tuned mass damper (TMD) and nonlinear energy sink (NES) are examined.

Keywords: nonlinear energy sink (NES), reduced-order modelling, liquid sloshing, vibration mitigation, vibro-impact dynamics

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Authors: Damian Gordon, Paul Doyle, Anna Becevel, Júlia Vilafranca Molero, Cinta Gascon, Arianna Vitiello, Tina Baloh

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It has long been recognized that the creation of any teaching content can be enhanced if the development process follows a pre-defined approach, which is often referred to as an instructional design methodology. These methodologies typically define a number of stages, or phases, that an educator should undertake to help ensure the quality of the final teaching content that is developed. In this paper, we present an instructional design methodology that is focused specifically on the introduction of blended resources into a heretofore bricks-and-mortar course. To achieve this, research was undertaken concerning a range of models of instructional design, as well as literature covering some of the key challenges and “pain points” of blending. Following this, our model, the BL-5D model, is presented, which incorporates some key questions at each stage of this five-stage methodology to guide the development process. Finally, a discussion of some of the key themes and issues that have been uncovered in this work is presented, as well as a template for a blended learning case study that emerged from this approach.

Keywords: blended learning, challenges of blended learning, design methodologies, instructional design

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Authors: Pius Babuna

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Sustainable water use is important for the existence of the human race. Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) measures the sustainability of water use; however, the calculation and optimization of WRCC remain challenging. This study used a mathematical model (the Logistics Growth of Water Resources -LGWR) and a linear objective function to model water sustainability. We tested the validity of the models using data from Ghana. Total freshwater resources, water withdrawal, and population data were used in MATLAB. The results show that the WRCC remains sustainable until the year 2132 ±18, when half of the total annual water resources will be used. The optimized water treatment cost suggests that Ghana currently wastes GHȼ 1115.782± 50 cedis (~$182.21± 50) per water treatment plant per month or ~ 0.67 million gallons of water in an avoidable loss. Adopting an optimized water treatment scheme and a watershed management approach will help sustain the WRCC.

Keywords: water resources carrying capacity, smart water management, optimization, sustainable water use, water withdrawal

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Authors: Mohamad Kassab, Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, Frederic Barbaresco, Raed Abu Zitar

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Detecting objects such as drones is a challenging task as their relative size and maneuvering capabilities deceive machine learning models and cause them to misclassify drones as birds or other objects. In this work, we investigate applying several deep learning techniques to benchmark real data sets of flying drones. A deep learning paradigm is proposed for the purpose of mitigating the complexity of those systems. The proposed paradigm consists of a hybrid between the AdderNet deep learning paradigm and the Single Shot Detector (SSD) paradigm. The goal was to minimize multiplication operations numbers in the filtering layers within the proposed system and, hence, reduce complexity. Some standard machine learning technique, such as SVM, is also tested and compared to other deep learning systems. The data sets used for training and testing were either complete or filtered in order to remove the images with mall objects. The types of data were RGB or IR data. Comparisons were made between all these types, and conclusions were presented.

Keywords: drones detection, deep learning, birds versus drones, precision of detection, AdderNet

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Continuous monitoring of industrial plants is one of necessary tasks when it comes to ensuring high-quality final products. In terms of monitoring and diagnosis, it is quite critical and important to detect some incipient abnormal events of manufacturing processes in order to improve safety and reliability of operations involved and to reduce related losses. In this work a new multivariate statistical online diagnostic method is presented using a case study. For building some reference models an empirical discriminant model is constructed based on various past operation runs. When a fault is detected on-line, an on-line diagnostic module is initiated. Finally, the status of the current operating conditions is compared with the reference model to make a diagnostic decision. The performance of the presented framework is evaluated using a dataset from complex industrial processes. It has been shown that the proposed diagnostic method outperforms other techniques especially in terms of incipient detection of any faults occurred.

Keywords: data mining, empirical model, on-line diagnostics, process fault, process monitoring

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Authors: Brian Ceh, Alison Jackson-Holland

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Food deserts are a reality in some cities. These deserts can be described as a shortage of healthy food options within close proximity of consumers. The shortage in this case is typically facilitated by a lack of stores in an urban area that provide adequate fruit and vegetable choices. This study explores new avenues to better understand food deserts by examining modes of transportation that are available to shoppers or consumers, e.g. walking, automobile, or public transit. Further, this study is unique in that it not only explores the location of large grocery stores, but small grocery and convenience stores too. In this study, the relationship between some socio-economic indicators, such as personal income, are also explored to determine any possible association with food deserts. In addition, to help facilitate our understanding of food deserts, complex network spatial models that are built on adequate algorithms are used to investigate the possibility of food deserts in the city of Hamilton, Canada. It is found that Hamilton, Canada is adequate serviced by retailers who provide healthy food choices and that the food desert phenomena is almost absent.

Keywords: Canada, desert, food, Hamilton, store

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Authors: Victoria Wolf, Renata Dobrucka, Robert Prezkop, Stephan Haubold

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The COVID-19 causes a worldwide crisis and has an impact in every dimension of the economy. Organizations with the ability to adapt to new developments and which innovate solutions for the disrupted world during and after the Corona crises have the opportunity to not only survive the crisis but rather to use new trends to implement new business models and gain advantage. In this context, startups seem to have better opportunities to manage the Corona crisis through their innovation-based nature. The main result of this paper is the understanding that by applying a startup orientated innovation (SOCI) strategy, established companies can be motivated to meet the challenge of COVID-19 in a similar way like startups. This result can be achieved by describing the role of innovation and a SOCI strategy as helpful methods for organizations to meet the coming challenges during and after the COVID-19 epidemics. In addition to this, this paper presents a practical application of SOCI through the PANDA approach of the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in Germany and discuss it in the context of COVID-19 as an exemplary successful real-world implementation of SOCI strategy.

Keywords: Covid-19, innovation, open innovation, startup, soci framework

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Authors: Thomas Elliot, Javier Babi Almenar, Benedetto Rugani

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The integration of urban metabolism (UM) with spatially explicit ecosystem service (ES) stocks has the potential to advance sustainable urban development. It will correct the lack of spatially specificity of current urban metabolism models. Furthermore, it will include into UM not only the physical properties of material and energy stocks and flows, but also the implications to the natural capital that provides and maintains human well-being. This paper presents the first stages of a modelling framework by which urban planners can assess spatially the trade-offs of ES flows resulting from urban interventions of different character and scale. This framework allows for a multi-region assessment which takes into account sustainability burdens consequent to an urban planning event occurring elsewhere in the environment. The urban boundary is defined as the Functional Urban Audit (FUA) method to account for trans-administrative ES flows. ES are mapped using CORINE land use within the FUA. These stocks and flows are incorporated into a UM assessment method to demonstrate the transfer and flux of ES arising from different urban planning implementations.

Keywords: ecological economics, ecosystem services, spatial planning, urban metabolism

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Authors: Tariq Aziz, Suresh Kumar, Vikesh Kumar, Sheraz Mustafa, Jhanzeb Marwat

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The paper provides an updated version of volatility spillover among the equity markets of South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, Srilanka, and Bangladesh. The analysis uses both symmetric and asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models to investigate volatility persistence and leverage effect. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission between two equity markets. Weekly data for the period February 2013 to August 2019 is used for empirical analysis. The findings indicate that the leverage effect exists in the equity markets of all the countries except Bangladesh. The volatility spillover from the equity market of Bangladesh to all other countries is negative and significant whereas the volatility of the equity market of Sri-Lanka does influence the volatility of any other country’s equity market. Indian equity market influence only the volatility of the Sri-Lankan equity market; and there is bidirectional volatility spillover between the equity markets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. The findings are important for policy-makers and international investors.

Keywords: volatility spillover, volatility persistence, garch, egarch

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Authors: Akshat Kumar, Vidushi

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This paper identifies 27 KOIs, 26 of which are currently classified as candidates and one as false positives that have a high probability of being confirmed. For this purpose, 11 machine learning algorithms were implemented on the cumulative kepler dataset sourced from the NASA exoplanet archive; it was observed that the best-performing model was HistGradientBoosting and XGBoost with a test accuracy of 93.5%, and the lowest-performing model was Gaussian NB with a test accuracy of 54%, to test model performance F1, cross-validation score and RUC curve was calculated. Based on the learned models, the significant characteristics for confirm exoplanets were identified, putting emphasis on the object’s transit and stellar properties; these characteristics were namely koi_count, koi_prad, koi_period, koi_dor, koi_ror, and koi_smass, which were later considered to filter out the potential KOIs. The paper also calculates the Earth similarity index based on the planetary radius and equilibrium temperature for each KOI identified to aid in their classification.

Keywords: Kepler objects of interest, exoplanets, space exploration, machine learning, earth similarity index, transit photometry

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Authors: H. A. Mansour

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The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

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Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

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Authors: Myeong Hee Jeong, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

The use of perforated plate and tubes is common in applications such as vehicle exhaust silencers, attenuators in air moving ducts and duct linings in jet engines. Also, perforated plate flow conditioners designed to improve flow distribution upstream of an orifice plate flow meter typically have 50–60% free area but these generally employ a non-uniform distribution of holes of several sizes to encourage the formation of a fully developed pipe flow velocity distribution. In this study, therefore, numerical investigations on the flow characteristics with the various perforated plates have been performed and then compared to the case without a perforated plate. Three different models are adopted such as a flat perforated plate, a convex perforated plate in the direction of the inlet, and a convex perforated plate in the direction of the outlet. Simulation results show that the pressure drop with and without perforated plates are similar each other. However, it can be found that that the different shaped perforated plates influence the velocity contour, flow uniformity index, and location of the fully developed fluid flow. These results can be used as a practical guide to the best design of pipe with the perforated plate.

Keywords: perforated plate, flow uniformity, pipe turbulent flow, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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