Search results for: project performance forecasting

Authors: Nongcebo Ngcobo

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This research explores the importance of including a multitude of voices in the cultural heritage narrative, particularly in South Africa. The Mashishing project is an extension of and builds on the existing ‘Biesje Poort project’ which is a rock art project that was funded by the National Heritage Council in 2010 - 2013. Hence, the Mashishing marking memories project applies comparable Biesje Poort project objectives, though in a different geographical area. The wider project objectives are to transfer skills, promote social cohesion and empowerment, and lastly to add to the knowledge base of the Mashishing region and the repository of the local museum in the Lydenburg museum. This study is located in the Mashishing area, in Mpumalanga, South Africa. In this area, there were no present multi-vocal heritage projects. This research assesses the Mashishing marking memories project through the culture-centered approach for communication for social change, which examines the impact that the diverse participants have on the operations of the Mashishing project and also investigates whether the culturally diverse participants facilitates or hinders effective participation within the project. Key findings of this research uncovered the significance of participation and diverse voices in the cultural heritage field. Furthermore, this study highlights how unequal power relations affect effective participation. As a result, this study encourages the importance of bringing the researcher and the participant in a safe space to facilitate mutual learning. It also encourages an exchange of roles, where the researcher shifts from being an authoritarian figure to being in the role of a listener.

Keywords: culture, heritage, participation, social change

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Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

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Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

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Authors: Qing Hui Wang, You Lin Fang, Min Chen

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In 2003 the percentage of students in Shanghai taking part in tertiary education reached 53% of the age cohort, which is at the universal level according to Trow's typology. This achievement led to a conscientious effort by the government to improve internal efficiency of local universities and colleges through a series of programs, the most important of which is the 085 Project. This paper considers the effects of the 085 Project- the 5 initiatives launched in 2008 on increasing the investment to improve institutional overall visibilities, teaching excellence, knowledge innovation, faculty development as well as internationalization. Using the approach of ERC (a theory of equality, reciprocity, and competition) model, it was found that the initiatives helped the lower tier universities and colleges make full play in the aspects of strategic planning and identifying themselves. It was also found that the rate of growth of social resources for universities as a whole increased more quickly after the implementation of the 085 Project.

Keywords: 085 Project, impact, internal efficiency, local universities and colleges

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Badr A. Al-Jehani

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Nowadays, contractor selection is a critical activity of the project owner. Selecting the right contractor is essential to the project manager for the success of the project, and this cab happens by using the proper selecting method. Traditionally, the contractor is being selected based on his offered bid price. This approach focuses only on the price factor and forgetting other essential factors for the success of the project. In this research paper, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used as a decision tool model to select the most appropriate contractor. This decision-making method can help the clients who work in the construction industry to identify contractors who are capable of delivering satisfactory outcomes. Moreover, this research paper provides a case study of selecting the proper contractor among three contractors by using ANP method. The case study identifies and computes the relative weight of the eight criteria and eleven sub-criteria using a questionnaire.

Keywords: contractor selection, project management, decision-making, bidding

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Authors: Kim Lindsay F. Restua, Jeehan Kyra A. Rivero, Joneka Myles D. Taguba

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Lean construction is defined as an approach in construction with the purpose of reducing waste in the process without compromising the value of the project. There are numerous lean construction tools that are applied in the construction process, which maximizes the efficiency of work and satisfaction of customers while minimizing waste. However, the complexity and differences of construction projects cause a rise in challenges on achieving the lean benefits construction can give, such as improvement in safety performance. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between lean construction tools and their effects on safety performance. The relationship between construction tools applied in construction and safety performance is identified through Logistic Regression Analysis, and Correlation Analysis was conducted thereafter. Based on the findings, it was concluded that almost 60% of the factors listed in the study, which are different tools and effects of lean construction, were determined to have a significant relationship with the level of safety in construction projects.

Keywords: correlation analysis, lean construction tools, lean construction, logistic regression analysis, risk management, safety

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Hsin-Hung Lai, Wei Lo

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Whether it is in virtue or vice for a construction quality of public construction project, it is one of the important indicators for national economic development and overall construction, the impact on the quality of national life is very deep. In recent years, a number of scandal of public construction project occurred, the requirements of the government agencies and the public require the quality of construction of public construction project are getting stricter than ever, the three-level public construction project construction quality of quality control system implemented by the government has a profound impact. This study mainly aggregated the evolution of ISO 9000 quality control system, the difference between the practice of implementing management of construction quality by many countries and three-level quality control of our country, so we explored and found that almost all projects of enhancing construction quality are dominated by civil organizations in foreign countries, whereas, it is induced by the national power in our country and develop our three-level quality control system and audit mechanism based on IOS system and implement the works by legislation, we also explored its enhancement and relevance with construction quality of public construction project that are intervened by such system and national power, and it really presents the effectiveness of construction quality been enhanced by the audited result. The three-level quality control system of our country to promote the policy of public construction project is almost same with the quality control system of many developed countries; however our country mainly implements such system on public construction project only, we promote the three-level quality control system is for enhancing the quality of public construction project, for establishing effective quality management system, so as to urge, correct and prevent the defects of quality management by manufacturers, whereas, those developed countries is comprehensively promoting (both public construction project and civil construction) such system. Therefore, this study is to explore the scope for public construction project only; the most important is the quality recognition by the executor, either good quality or deterioration is not a single event, there is a certain procedure extends from the demand and feasibility analysis, design, tendering, contracting, construction performance, inspection, continuous improvement, completion and acceptance, transferring and meeting the needs of the users, all of mentioned above have a causal relationship and it is a systemic problems. So the best construction quality would be manufactured and managed by reasonable cost if it is by extensive thinking and be preventive. We aggregated the implemented results in the past 10 years (2005 to 2015), the audited results of both in central units and local ones were slightly increased in A-grade while those listed in B-grade were decreased, although the levels were not evidently upgraded, yet, such result presents that the construction quality of concept of manufacturers are improving, and the construction quality has been established in the design stage, thus it is relatively beneficial to the enhancement of construction quality of overall public construction project.

Keywords: ISO 9000, three-level quality control system, audit and review mechanism for construction implementation, quality of construction implementation

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Authors: Josip Arneric, Blanka Skrabic Peric

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Forecasting of volatility, i.e. returns fluctuations, has been a topic of interest to portfolio managers, option traders and market makers in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most common used models are GARCH type models. As standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance, it is difficult the predict volatility using standard GARCH models. Due to practical limitations of these models different approaches have been proposed in the literature, based on Markov switching models. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate because they allow some part of the model to depend on the state of the economy. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility for selected emerging markets.

Keywords: emerging markets, Markov switching, GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Duangkamol Thitivesa

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This paper focuses on the use of project work as a pretext for applying the conventions of writing, or the correctness of mechanics, usage, and sentence formation, in a content-based class in a Rajabhat University. Its aim was to explore to what extent the student teachers’ academic achievement of the basic writing features against the 70% attainment target after the use of project is. The organization of work around an agreed theme in which the students reproduce language provided by texts and instructors is expected to enhance students’ correct writing conventions. The sample of the study comprised of 38 fourth-year English major students. The data was collected by means of achievement test and student writing works. The scores in the summative achievement test were analyzed by mean score, standard deviation, and percentage. It was found that the student teachers do more achieve of practicing mechanics and usage, and less in sentence formation. The students benefited from the exposure to texts during conducting the project; however, their automaticity of how and when to form phrases and clauses into simple/complex sentences had room for improvement.

Keywords: project-based learning, project work, writing conventions, academic achievement

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Authors: Tharaki S. Hettiarachchi

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Sustainable construction has gained massive attention in the present world as the construction industry is highly responsible for carbon emissions and other types of unsustainable practices. Yet, the construction industry has not been able to completely attain sustainable goals. Therefore, the present study aims to identify the extent to which sustainability has been considered within the scope of construction project management and to analyze the challenges, gaps, and constraints associated. Accordingly, this study develops a sustainable framework to integrate in construction project management. In accomplishing the research aim, this research integrates a qualitative approach while relying on secondary data sources. The data shall be then analyzed with the use of a systematic literature review (SLR) method while following the PRISMA (2020) guideline and represented in a statistical form. The outcomes of this study may become highly significant in identifying the nature of the existing sustainable frameworks associated with construction project management scopes and to develop a new framework to integrate in order to enhance the effectiveness of sustainable applications in construction management. The outcomes of this research may benefit present and future construction professionals and academicians to organize sustainable construction-related knowledge in a useful way to apply in practical implementation for effective project management. Overall, this study directs present and future construction professionals toward an advanced construction project management mechanism.

Keywords: construction, framework development, project management, sustainability

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Authors: K. Aravinth, C. T. Vignesh

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The usage of pulse tube cryocoolers is significantly increased mainly due to the advantage of the absence of moving parts. The underlying idea of this project is to optimize the design of pulse tube, regenerator, a resonator in cryocooler and analyzing the thermo-acoustic oscillations with respect to the design parameters. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model with time-dependent validation is done to predict its performance. The continuity, momentum, and energy equations are solved for various porous media regions. The effect of changing the geometries and orientation will be validated and investigated in performance. The pressure, temperature and velocity fields in the regenerator and pulse tube are evaluated. This optimized design performance results will be compared with the existing pulse tube cryocooler design. The sinusoidal behavior of cryocooler in acoustic streaming patterns in pulse tube cryocooler will also be evaluated.

Keywords: acoustics, cryogenics, design, optimization

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Authors: M. Adamski, J. Cwiklak

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The contemporary battlefield creates a demand for more costly and highly advanced munitions. Training personnel responsible for operations, as well as an immediate execution of combat tasks, which engage real assets, is unrealistic and economically not feasible. Owing to a wide array of exploited simulators and various types of imitators, it is possible to reduce the costs. One of the effective elements of training, which can be applied in the training of all service branches, are imitators of aerial targets. This research serves as an introduction to the commencement of design analysis over a real aerial target imitator. Within the project, the basic aerodynamic calculations were made, which enabled to determine its geometry, design layout, performance, as well as the mass balance of individual components. The conducted calculations of the parameters of flight characteristics come closer to the real performance of such unmanned aerial vehicles.

Keywords: aerial target, aerodynamics, imitator, performance

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Authors: C. Malça, N. Alves, A. Mateus

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This work was one of the tasks of the Manufacturing2Client project, whose objective was to develop a frontal deflector to be commercialized in the automotive industry, using new project and manufacturing methods. In this task, in particular, it was proposed to develop the ability to predict computationally the aerodynamic influence of flow in vehicles, in an effort to reduce fuel consumption in vehicles from class 3 to 8. With this aim, two deflector models were developed and their aerodynamic performance analyzed. The aerodynamic study was done using the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software Ansys CFX and allowed the calculation of the drag coefficient caused by the vehicle motion for the different configurations considered. Moreover, the reduction of diesel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the optimized deflector geometry could be assessed.

Keywords: erodynamic analysis, CFD, CO2 emissions, drag coefficient, frontal deflector, fuel consumption

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Authors: Juliana Barcelos Cordeiro, Khashayar Mahani, Farbod Farzan, Mohsen A. Jafari

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Energy disaggregation has been focused by many energy companies since energy efficiency can be achieved when the breakdown of energy consumption is known. Companies have been investing in technologies to come up with software and/or hardware solutions that can provide this type of information to the consumer. On the other hand, not all people can afford to have these technologies. Therefore, in this paper, we present a methodology for breaking down the aggregate consumption and identifying the highdemanding end-uses profiles. These energy profiles will be used to build the forecast model for optimal control purpose. A facility with high cooling load is used as an illustrative case study to demonstrate the results of proposed methodology. We apply a high level energy disaggregation through a pattern recognition approach in order to extract the consumption profile of its rooftop packaged units (RTUs) and present a forecast model for the energy consumption.  

Keywords: energy consumption forecasting, energy efficiency, load disaggregation, pattern recognition approach

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Authors: Xiaojing Gao, James Njuguna

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This paper emphasizes the importance of integrating project management and systems engineering for innovative system design and production development. The research highlights the need for a flexible approach that unifies these disciplines, as their isolation often leads to communication challenges and complexity within multidisciplinary teams. The paper aims to elucidate the intricate relationship between project management and systems engineering, recommending the consolidation of engineering disciplines into a single lifecycle for improved support of the design and development process. The research identifies a synergy between these disciplines, focusing on streamlining information communication during product design and development. The insights gained from this process can lead to product design optimization. Additionally, the paper introduces a proposed Project Management-Based Systems Engineering (PMBSE) framework, emphasizing effective communication, efficient processes, and advanced tools to enhance product development outcomes within the product lifecycle.

Keywords: system engineering, product design and development, project management, cross-disciplinary

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Authors: Hailu Kebede Bekele

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Construction delays are suitable where project events occur at a certain time expected due to causes related to the client, consultant, and contractor. Delay is the major cause of the cost overrun that leads to the poor efficiency of the project. The cost difference between completion and the originally estimated is known as cost overrun. The common ways of cost overruns are not simple issues that can be neglected, but more attention should be given to prevent the organization from being devastated to be failed, and financial expenses to be extended. The reasons that may raised in different studies show that the problem may arise in construction projects due to errors in budgeting, lack of favorable weather conditions, inefficient machinery, and the availability of extravagance. The study is focused on the pace of mega projects that can have a significant change in the cost overrun calculation.15 mega projects are identified to study the problem of the cost overrun in the site. The contractor, consultant, and client are the principal stakeholders in the mega projects. 20 people from each sector were selected to participate in the investigation of the current mega construction project. The main objective of the study on the construction cost overrun is to prioritize the major causes of the cost overrun problem. The methodology that was employed in the construction cost overrun is the qualitative methodology that mostly rates the causes of construction project cost overrun. Interviews, open-ended and closed-ended questions group discussions, and rating qualitative methods are the best methodologies to study construction projects overrun. The result shows that design mistakes, lack of labor, payment delay, old equipment and scheduling, weather conditions, lack of skilled labor, payment delays, transportation, inflation, and order variations, market price fluctuation, and people's thoughts and philosophies, the prior cause of the cost overrun that fail the project performance. The institute shall follow the scheduled activities to bring a positive forward in the project life.

Keywords: cost overrun, delay, mega projects, design

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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Authors: Hassan Abdelgadir

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Cost overruns have harmed the economies and reputations of several construction companies around the world. Many project management systems have been developed to keep track of a project's budget. However, due to several cost overrun difficulties in the construction industry, cost management is still deemed inadequate. As a result, the goal of this term paper is to identify and group prospective construction project cost overrun reasons based on their origin groups.Basically, all potential cost overrun elements were rigorously checked through 1iterature analysis before being divided into seven (7) groups of originating components, including project, contract, client, contractor, consultant, labor, and external. Each potential factor was completely defined with examples.

Keywords: construction projects, cost overruns, construction company, factors effect costoverruns

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Jagoda Bruni, Jan Müller-Lucanus, Gernot Stöger-Knes

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The purpose of this article is to demonstrate modern project management approaches in the SAP S/R Hana surrounding a programming environment composed of multiple focus-diversified projects. We would like to propose innovative and goal-oriented management standards based on the specificity of the SAP transformations and customer-driven expectations. Due to the regular sprint-based controlling and management tools' application, it has been data-proven that extensive analysis of productive hours of the employees as much as a thorough review of the project progress (per GAP, per business process, and per Lot) within the whole program, can have a positive impact on customer satisfaction and improvement for projects' budget. This has been a collaborative study based on real-life experience and measurements in collaboration with our customers.

Keywords: project management, program management, SAP, controlling

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Authors: Chattrarat Hotrawaisaya

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This research aims to formulate the logistics collaborative model which is the management tool for orchid flower exporter. The researchers study logistics activities in orchid supply chain that stakeholders can collaborate and develop, including demand forecasting, inventory management, warehouse and storage, order-processing, and transportation management. The research also explores logistics collaboration implementation into orchid’s stakeholders. The researcher collected data before implementation and after model implementation. Consequently, the costs and efficiency were calculated and compared between pre and post period of implementation. The research found that the results of applying the logistics collaborative model to orchid exporter reduces inventory cost and transport cost. The model also improves forecasting accuracy, and synchronizes supply chain of exporter. This research paper contributes the uniqueness logistics collaborative model which value to orchid industry in Thailand. The orchid exporters may use this model as their management tool which aims in competitive advantage.

Keywords: logistics, orchid, supply chain, collaboration

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. The earlier we predict the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven data sets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: software metrics, fault prediction, cross project, within project.

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Authors: Kunto Nurcahyoko

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The fundamental perception used in this study is that teaching and learning activities in Indonesian classroom have potentially generated individual’s sensitivity on cross-cultural understanding. This study aims at investigating Indonesian university students’ perception on cross-cultural understanding after doing Cultural Snapshot Project. The data was critically analyzed through multicultural ideology and diversity theories. The subjects were 30 EFL college students in one of colleges in Indonesia. Each student was assigned to capture a photo which depicted the existence of any cultural manifestation in their surrounding such as discrimination, prejudice and stereotype. Students were then requested asked to reflect on the picture by writing a short description on the picture and make an exhibition using their pictures. In the end of the project, students were instructed to fill in questionnaires to show their perception before and after the project. The result reveals that Cultural Snapshot Project has given the opportunity for the students to better realize cross-cultural understanding in their environment. In conclusion, the study shows that Cultural Snapshot Project has specifically enhanced students’ perception of multiculturalism in three major areas: cultural sensitivity and empathy, social tolerance, and understanding of diversity.

Keywords: cultural snapshot, cross-cultural understanding, students’ perception, multiculturalism

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Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Ejiofor

Abstract:

In Enugu, Nigeria, this study investigates the connection between strategic leadership and project management sustainability, with an emphasis on building projects in the State. The study set out to accomplish two specific goals: first, it sought to establish a link between creative project management and resource efficiency in construction projects in Enugu State, Nigeria; and second, it sought to establish a link between innovative thinking and waste minimization in those same projects. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from 45 registered construction enterprises in the study area as part of the study's descriptive research approach. Due to the nonparametric nature of the data, Spearman Rank Order Correlation was used to evaluate the acquired data. The findings demonstrate that creative project management had a significant positive impact on resource efficiency in construction projects carried out by architecture firms in Enugu State, Nigeria (r =.849; p.001), and that innovative thinking had a significant impact on waste reduction in those same projects (r =.849; p.001). It was determined that strategic leadership had a significant impact on the sustainability of project management, and it was thus advised that project managers should foresee, prepare for, and effectively communicate present and future developments to project staff in order to ensure that the objective of sustainable initiatives, such as recycling and reuse, is implemented in construction projects.

Keywords: construction, project management, strategic leadership, sustainability, waste reduction

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