Search results for: expected utility theory

Authors: Adilla Anggraeni

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The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effects of religiosity and subjective knowledge towards initial trust that a consumer has towards a product manufacturer. Since globalization enters the point of no return, it should be acknowledged that further exploration of country of origin image, its influences and possible limiting factors is imperative. This model aims to broaden COO-related research, especially related to different product categories based on the perception of consumers in emerging markets. The study employs quantitative method, aiming to involve 200 Indonesian respondents to evaluate different product categories (food/apparel). Relationships between variables are evaluated using structural equation modeling. It is expected that subjective knowledge will have significant influence towards initial trust that an individual possesses towards food products. A major contribution of this study will be the inclusion of religiosity and subjective knowledge in the country of origin study’s body of knowledge. Companies are also expected to benefit from the study as the acceleration of globalization may again repose the question of whether companies should market their product using similar strategies across different countries or different ones. Religiosity dimension is expected to add values to international marketing literature concerning emerging economies in particular, as many companies view the emerging economies as promising markets.

Keywords: country of origin, subjective knowledge, initial trust, emerging economy, Indonesia

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Authors: Anne Gibbons

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Both inside and outside of academia, people have sought to understand the “sense of place” of various regions, many times over and for many different reasons. The concept of regional identity is highly complex and surrounded by considerable contention. There are multiple bodies of research on regional identity theory in many different disciplines and even across sub-disciplinary classifications. Each discipline takes a slightly different angle or perspective on regional identity, resulting in a fragmented body of work on this topic overall. There is a need to consolidate this body of increasingly fragmented theory through interdisciplinary integration. For the purpose of this study, the province of Saskatchewan will serve as an exemplar for exploring regional identity in a concrete context. Saskatchewan can be thought of as a ‘functional region,’ with clear boundaries and clear residency, from which regional identity can be studied. This thesis shares the outcomes of a qualitative study grounded in a series of group interviews with askatchewan residents, from which it is concluded that the use of interdisciplinary theory is an appropriate approach to the study of regional identity. Regional identity cannot be compartmentalized; it is a web of characteristics, attributes, and feelings that are inextricably linked. The thesis thus concludes by offering lessons learned about how we might better understand regional identity, as illuminated through both interdisciplinary theory and the lived experiences and imaginations of people living in the region of Saskatchewan.

Keywords: interdisciplinary, regional identity, Saskatchewan, tourism studies

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Authors: Pontus Backstrom

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In the educational literature on peer effects, attention has been brought to the fact that the mechanisms creating peer effects are still to a large extent hidden in obscurity. The hypothesis in this study is that the Frame Factor Theory can be used to explain these mechanisms. At heart of the theory is the concept of “time needed” for students to learn a certain curricula unit. The relations between class-aggregated time needed and the actual time available, steers and hinders the actions possible for the teacher. Further, the theory predicts that the timing and pacing of the teachers’ instruction is governed by a “criterion steering group” (CSG), namely the pupils in the 10th-25th percentile of the aptitude distribution in class. The class composition hereby set the possibilities and limitations for instruction, creating peer effects on individual outcomes. To test if the theory can be applied to the issue of peer effects, the study employs multilevel structural equation modelling (M-SEM) on Swedish TIMSS 2015-data (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; students N=4090, teachers N=200). Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in the SEM-framework in MPLUS, latent variables are specified according to the theory, such as “limitations of instruction” from TIMSS survey items. The results indicate a good model fit to data of the measurement model. Research is still in progress, but preliminary results from initial M-SEM-models verify a strong relation between the mean level of the CSG and the latent variable of limitations on instruction, a variable which in turn have a great impact on individual students’ test results. Further analysis is required, but so far the analysis indicates a confirmation of the predictions derived from the frame factor theory and reveals that one of the important mechanisms creating peer effects in student outcomes is the effect the class composition has upon the teachers’ instruction in class.

Keywords: compositional effects, frame factor theory, peer effects, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Rawaa El Ayoubi

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Many researchers, academics and practitioners have developed leadership theories during the 20th century. This substantial effort has built more leadership theories, generating considerable organisational research on leadership models in contemporary literature. This paper explores the stages and drivers of leadership theory evolution based on the researcher’s personal conclusions and review of leadership theories. The purpose of this paper is to create a Leadership Process Model (LPM) that can provide guidance in dealing with the key challenges within the organisation. This integrative model of organisational leadership is based on inner meaning, leader values and vision. It further addresses the relationships between leadership theory, practice and development, exploring why challenges exist within the field of leadership theory and how these challenges can be mitigated.

Keywords: leadership challenges, leadership process model, leadership |theories, organisational leadership, paradigm development

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Authors: F. Ahwide, Y. Bouker, K. Hatem

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This paper presents long term wind data analysis in terms of annual and diurnal variations at different areas of Libya. The data of the wind speed and direction are taken each ten minutes for a period, at least two years, are used in the analysis. ‘WindPRO’ software and Excel workbook were used for the wind statistics and energy calculations. As for Derna, average speeds are 10 m, 20 m, and 40 m, and respectively 6.57 m/s, 7.18 m/s, and 8.09 m/s. Highest wind speeds are observed at SSW, followed by S, WNW and NW sectors. Lowest wind speeds are observed between N and E sectors. Most frequent wind directions are NW and NNW. Hence, wind turbines can be installed against these directions. The most powerful sector is NW (29.4 % of total expected wind energy), followed by 19.9 % SSW, 11.9% NNW, 8.6% WNW and 8.2% S. Furthermore in Al-Maqrun: the most powerful sector is W (26.8 % of total expected wind energy), followed by 12.3 % WSW and 9.5% WNW. While in Goterria: the most powerful sector is S (14.8 % of total expected wind energy), followed by SSE, SE, and WSW. And Misalatha: the most powerful sector is S, by far represents 28.5% of the expected power, followed by SSE and SE. As for Tarhuna, it is by far SSE and SE, representing each one two times the expected energy of the third powerful sector (NW). In Al-Asaaba: it is SSE by far represents 50% of the expected power, followed by S. It can to be noted that the high frequency of the south direction winds, that come from the desert could cause a high frequency of dust episodes. This fact then, should be taken into account in order to take appropriate measures to prevent wind turbine deterioration. In Excel workbook, an estimation of annual energy yield at position of Derna, Al-Maqrun, Tarhuna, and Al-Asaaba meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 1.65 MW. (mtORRES, TWT 82-1.65MW) in position of meteorological mast. Three other turbines have been tested. At 80 m, the estimation of energy yield for Derna, Al-Maqrun, Tarhuna, and Asaaba is 6.78 GWh or 3390 equivalent hours, 5.80 GWh or 2900 equivalent hours, 4.91 GWh or 2454 equivalent hours and 5.08 GWh or 2541 equivalent hours respectively. It seems a fair value in the context of a possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Furthermore, an estimation of annual energy yield at positions of Misalatha, Azizyah and Goterria meteorological mast has been done, considering a generic wind turbine of 2 MW. We found that, at 80 m, the estimation of energy yield is 3.12 GWh or 1557 equivalent hours, 4.47 GWh or 2235 equivalent hours and 4.07GWh or 2033 respectively . It seems a very poor value in the context of possible development of a wind energy project in the areas, considering a value of 2400 equivalent hours as an approximate limit to consider a wind warm economically profitable. Anyway, more data and a detailed wind farm study would be necessary to draw conclusions.

Keywords: wind turbines, wind data, energy yield, micrositting

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Authors: Thomas Prevenslik

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Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) experiments suggesting dark matter does not exist are consistent with the argument that the long-standing galaxy rotation problem may be resolved without the need for dark matter if the redshift measurements giving the higher than expected galaxy velocities are corrected for the redshift in cosmic dust. Because of the ubiquity of cosmic dust, all velocity measurements in astronomy based on redshift are most likely overstated, e.g., an accelerating Universe expansion need not exist if data showing supernovae brighter than expected based on the redshift/distance relation is corrected for the redshift in dust. Extensions of redshift corrections for cosmic dust to other historical astronomical observations are briefly discussed.

Keywords: alternative theories, cosmic dust redshift, doppler effect, quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Ruth Donkoh, Wing On Lee, Solomon A. Boateng, Portia Oware Twerefoo, Josephine Donkor

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In this paper we defend the value of theories and approaches to educational policy and planning in enhancing the educational developments in Ghana. This mission is achieved by enumerating the recent educational developments in Ghana and juxtaposing it with some educational theories, approaches to policy making, and policy planning to see if the educational developments conform with the theory principles as well as policy making and planning processes. Data collection for the research was made through textual analysis of policy documents as well as review of relevant literatures. The findings reveled that educational developments in Ghana are unable to attain its objectives due to the policies not conforming with the policy formation and planning principles. In addition, was that education planning in Ghana does not follow the policy-administration dichotomy theory principles and likewise the distribution of educational needs goes contrary to the equity theory. We recommend that educational policies in Ghana should be in conformity with the principles of theories as well as the approaches to educational policy making and planning to help meet the needs of learners, attain educational quality, and to help in the accomplishment of educational development objectives.

Keywords: Ghana education, equity theories, politics- administration dichotomy theory, educational policies, educational planning

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Authors: Sahar Dehghan, Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Ghahraman Abdoli

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Since tax revenues are one of the most important sources of government revenue, it is essential to consider increasing taxpayers' compliance. One of the factors that can affect the taxpayers' compliance is the structure of the crimes and incentives envisaged in the tax law. In this research, by using the 'prospect theory', the effects of changes in the rate of crimes and the tax incentive in the direct tax law on the taxpayer’s compliance behavior have been investigated. To determine the preferences and preferences of taxpayer’s in the business sector and their degree of sensitivity to fines and incentives, a questionnaire with mixed gamble structure is designed. Estimated results using the Hierarchical Bayesian method indicate that the taxpayer’s that have been tested in this study are more sensitive to the incentives in the direct tax law, and the tax administration can use this to increase the level of collected tax and increase the level of compliance.

Keywords: tax compliance, prospect theory, value function, mixed gamble

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Authors: Flaurence Benjamain, Michel Casperance

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We present in this paper, first, a comparative study of three mathematical theories to achieve the fusion of information sources. This study aims to identify the characteristics inherent in theories of possibilities, belief functions (DST) and plausible and paradoxical reasoning to establish a strategy of choice that allows us to adopt the most appropriate theory to solve a problem of fusion in order, taking into account the acquired information and imperfections that accompany them. Using the new theory of plausible and paradoxical reasoning, also called Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), to fuse information multi-sources needs, at first step, the generation of the composites events witch is, in general, difficult. Thus, we present in this paper a new approach to construct pertinent paradoxical classes based on gray levels histograms, which also allows to reduce the cardinality of the hyper-powerset. Secondly, we developed a new technique for order and coding generalized focal elements. This method is exploited, in particular, to calculate the cardinality of Dezert and Smarandache. Then, we give an experimentation of classification of a remote sensing image that illustrates the given methods and we compared the result obtained by the DSmT with that resulting from the use of the DST and theory of possibilities.

Keywords: segmentation, image, approach, vision computing

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Authors: Danika Tynes

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Telehealth is a promising advancement in health care, though there are certain conditions under which telehealth has a greater chance of success. This research sought to further the understanding of what conditions compel the success of telehealth adoption at the systems level applying Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) theory (Rogers, 1962). System-level indicators were selected to represent four components of DoI theory (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, and observability) and regressed on 5 types of telehealth (teleradiology, teledermatology, telepathology, telepsychology, and remote monitoring) using multiple logistic regression. The analyses supported relative advantage and compatibility as the strongest influencers of telehealth adoption, remote monitoring in particular. These findings help to quantitatively clarify the factors influencing the adoption of innovation and advance the ability to make recommendations on the viability of state telehealth adoption. In addition, results indicate when DoI theory is most applicable to the understanding of telehealth diffusion. Ultimately, this research may contribute to more focused allocation of scarce health care resources through consideration of existing state conditions available foster innovation.

Keywords: adoption, diffusion of innovation theory, remote monitoring, system-level indicators

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Authors: Deycy Janeth Sanchez Preciado, Bjorn Claes, Paola Andrade

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The development of appropriate environmentally friendly technologies has aided communities in rural areas in emerging economies to better use their natural resources, increase productivity while reducing pollution. Moreover, it has improved their innovation capabilities and ability to develop products for new markets. However, despite the advances, the adoption of these technologies is not generalized and does not always show the expected benefits for the communities and other actors involved in the co-creation process. In this paper, we study the barriers that inhibit the adoption of technologies to reach innovation levels and study comparative cases in rural areas of Cauca in Colombia. We develop and test a theory grounded framework, and we compile an overview of the most important of barriers.

Keywords: technology adoption, environmentally friendly technology, developing countries, rural production, innovation, appropriate technology

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Authors: Elham Kiyani

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In this paper, we first introduce the concept of Q-efficient solutions in a real linear space not necessarily endowed with a topology, where Q is some nonempty (not necessarily convex) set. We also used the scalarization technique including the Gerstewitz function generated by a nonconvex set to characterize these Q-efficient solutions. The algebraic concepts of interior and closure are useful to study optimization problems without topology. Studying nonconvex vector optimization is valuable since topological interior is equal to algebraic interior for a convex cone. So, we use the algebraic concepts of interior and closure to define Q-weak efficient solutions and Q-Henig proper efficient solutions of set-valued optimization problems, where Q is not a convex cone. Optimization problems with set-valued maps have a wide range of applications, so it is expected that there will be a useful analytical tool in optimization theory for set-valued maps. These kind of optimization problems are closely related to stochastic programming, control theory, and economic theory. The paper focus on nonconvex problems, the results are obtained by assuming generalized non-convexity assumptions on the data of the problem. In convex problems, main mathematical tools are convex separation theorems, alternative theorems, and algebraic counterparts of some usual topological concepts, while in nonconvex problems, we need a nonconvex separation function. Thus, we consider the Gerstewitz function generated by a general set in a real linear space and re-examine its properties in the more general setting. A useful approach for solving a vector problem is to reduce it to a scalar problem. In general, scalarization means the replacement of a vector optimization problem by a suitable scalar problem which tends to be an optimization problem with a real valued objective function. The Gerstewitz function is well known and widely used in optimization as the basis of the scalarization. The essential properties of the Gerstewitz function, which are well known in the topological framework, are studied by using algebraic counterparts rather than the topological concepts of interior and closure. Therefore, properties of the Gerstewitz function, when it takes values just in a real linear space are studied, and we use it to characterize Q-efficient solutions of vector problems whose image space is not endowed with any particular topology. Therefore, we deal with a constrained vector optimization problem in a real linear space without assuming any topology, and also Q-weak efficient and Q-proper efficient solutions in the senses of Henig are defined. Moreover, by means of the Gerstewitz function, we provide some necessary and sufficient optimality conditions for set-valued vector optimization problems.

Keywords: algebraic interior, Gerstewitz function, vector closure, vector optimization

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Authors: Vashti Carissa

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The main objective of this study is to examine whether the life-cycle theory of dividends could explain the determinant of an optimal dividend policy in Indonesia. The sample that was used consists of 1,420 non-financial and non-trade, services, investment firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during the period of 2005-2014. According to this finding using logistic regression, firm life-cycle measured by retained earnings as a proportion of total equity (RETE) significantly has a positive effect on the propensity of a firm pays dividend. The higher company’s earned surplus portion in its capital structure could reflect firm maturity level which will increase the likelihood of dividend payment in mature firms. This result provides an additional empirical evidence about the existence of life-cycle theory of dividends for dividend payout phenomenon in Indonesia. It can be known that dividends tend to be paid by mature firms while retention is more dominating in growth firms. From the testing results, it can also be known that majority of sample firms are being in the growth phase which proves the fact about infrequent dividend distribution in Indonesia during the ten years observation period.

Keywords: dividend, dividend policy, life-cycle theory of dividends, mix of earned and contributed capital

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Authors: M. K. Dce

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of simply supported beams having rectangular section and subjected to uniformly distributed load (UDL). In this study five beams of span 5m, 6m, 7m and 8m have been considered. The width of all the beams is 400 mm and span to depth ratio has been taken as 12. The superimposed live load has been increased from 10 kN/m to 25 kN/m at the interval of 5 kN/m. The analysis of the beams has been carried out using the elastic beam theory. On the basis of present study it has been concluded that the maximum bending moment as well as deflection occurs at the mid-span of simply supported beam and its magnitude increases in proportion to magnitude of UDL. Moreover, the study suggests that the maximum moment is proportional to square of span and maximum deflection is proportional to fourth power of span.

Keywords: beam, UDL, bending moment, deflection, elastic beam theory

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

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With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan

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Authors: M. Fikriansyah Wicaksono, Rafael Arief Budiman, M. Very Setiawan

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Currently, a wide range of innovative mobile library (M-Library) service is provided for the users in the library. The M-Library service is an innovation that aims to bring the collections of the library to users who currently use their smartphone so often. With M-Library services, it is expected that the users can fulfill their information needs more conveniently and practically. This study aims to find out how users use M-Library services provided by UGM library. This study applied a quantitative approach to investigate how to use the application M-Library. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) theory is applied to perform the analysis in terms of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude towards behavior, behavioral intention and actual system usage. The results show that overall the users found that the M-Library application is useful to meet their information needs. Such as facilitate user to access e-resources, search UGM library collections, online booking collections, and reminder for returning book.

Keywords: m-library, mobile library services, technology acceptance, library of UGM

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Authors: Shishir Lamichhane, Saurav Dulal, Bibek Gautam, Madan Thapa Magar, Indraman Tamrakar

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Renewable energies such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic have gained significance as a result of global environmental pollution and energy crises. These sources of energy are converted into electrical energy and delivered to end-users through the utility system. As a result of the widespread use of power electronics-based grid-interfacing technologies to accommodate renewable sources of energy, the prevalence of converters has expanded as well. As a result, the power system's rotating inertia is decreasing, endangering the utility grid's stability. The use of Virtual Synchronous Machine (VSM) technology has been proposed to overcome the grid stability problem due to low rotating inertia. The grid-connected inverter used in VSM can be controlled to emulate inertia, which replicates the external features of a synchronous generator. As a result, the rotating inertia is increased to support the power system's stability. A power angle control strategy is proposed in this paper and its model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink to study the effects of parameter disturbances on the active power and frequency for a VSM. The system consists of a synchronous generator, which is modeled in such a way that the frequency drops to an unacceptable region during transient conditions due to a lack of inertia when VSM is not used. Then, the suggested model incorporating VSM emulates rotating inertia, injecting a controllable amount of energy into the grid during frequency transients to enhance transient stability.

Keywords: damping constant, inertia–constant, ROCOF, transient stability, distributed sources

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Authors: Saman R. Khan, Najma Sadiq

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Silencing of opinions is an important aspect of Spiral of Silence theory however its applicability in rape-themed dramas requires investigation. This study focuses on the portrayal of female rape victim protagonists in Pakistani dramas and the factors influencing their behavior after rape. A quantitative content analysis was conducted on two prime-time dramas which directly dealt with female rape victims. Results indicate that the female protagonists who faced rape are shown as silent and submissive characters who are unable to communicate about their ordeal due to fear of social isolation. These findings lend support to the Spiral of Silence theory and indicate that the theory’s basic elements (inability to express opinions and fear of social isolation) exist in these TV dramas.

Keywords: gender stereotyping, rape victims, the spiral of silence, TV dramas

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Authors: Ömer Aktaş, Olga A. Suvorova, Oleg Tretyakov

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The boundary value problem on non-canonical and arbitrary shaped contour is solved with a numerically effective method called Analytical Regularization Method (ARM) to calculate propagation parameters. As a result of regularization, the equation of first kind is reduced to the infinite system of the linear algebraic equations of the second kind in the space of L2. This equation can be solved numerically for desired accuracy by using truncation method. The parameters as cut-off wavenumber and cut-off frequency are used in waveguide evolutionary equations of electromagnetic theory in time-domain to illustrate the real-valued TM fields with lossy and lossless media.

Keywords: analytical regularization method, electromagnetic theory evolutionary equations of time-domain, TM Field

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Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

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A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

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Authors: Apurva Sapra

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The aim of this research was to study and compare the nature of expected, feared and hoped-for selves in institutionalized adolescent boys in two residential settings – an observation home with children in conflict with the law, and a children’s home with children in need of care and protection. The study uses a concurrent mixed methods design, in which eight adolescent boys from each group, aged 13-17, were asked to respond to a questionnaire, followed by an in-depth interview. The questionnaire looked into the total scores on current, probable and hoped-for/feared positive and negative self-descriptors. Possible selves of both groups were found to be influenced by their unique histories, such as with their experience of violence, interaction with the police and emphasis given on education. Expected selves and hoped-for selves were similar within the two groups. However, they were more concrete and attainable in the observation home and more ambitious in the children’s home. Quantitative results showed that on the positive self-descriptors, the participants in the observation home had a slightly lower total score on the current parameter as on the probable and hoped-for parameters. The participants in the children’s home showed similar results on current and probable positive self-descriptors, with higher scores on the hoped-for parameter. For most of the negative self-descriptors, the current score for the observation home group was lower than the expected score, and for the children’s home group, they were feared slightly more than they were expected. Along with the nature of possible selves, the study also looked into threats and support to desired and feared possible selves, as well as strategies to attain the desired possible selves and avoid feared possible selves. While threats to possible selves were identified as external and internal in both groups, the participants in the children’s home tended to identify threats as external. The categories of support were similar across the two groups, although the nature of support provided differed. Strategies adopted by participants in the observation home could be clearly divided as past, present and future strategies, while those adopted by participants in the children’s home had an overlap with past and future strategies. The institution was perceived as having a negative influence for the future in the observation home group, but positive in the children’s home group. Limitations of the study and recommendations for future research, policy setting and the counselling profession are discussed.

Keywords: adolescents, expected self, feared self, hoped-for self, institutions, possible selves

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Authors: Jing Zhang

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Sustainable development in the new energy vehicles field is the requirement of the net zero aim. Green bonds are accepted as a practical financial tool to boost the transformation of relevant enterprises. The paper analyzes the interactions among governments, enterprises of new energy vehicles, and financial institutions by an evolutionary game theory model and offers advice to stakeholders in China. The decision-making subjects of green behavior are affected by experiences, interests, perception ability, and risk preference, so it is difficult for them to be completely rational. Based on the bounded rationality hypothesis, this paper applies prospect theory in the evolutionary game analysis framework and analyses the costs of government regulation of enterprises adopting green bonds. The influence of the perceived value of revenue prospect and the probability and risk transfer coefficient of the government's active regulation on the decision-making agent's strategy is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, according to the research conclusions, policy suggestions are given to promote green bonds.

Keywords: green bonds, new energy vehicles, sustainable development, evolutionary Game Theory model

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Authors: Kang-Hsien Li

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Along with global industries in using technology to enhance the application, make the study drawn more close to the people’s behavior and produce data analysis, extended out from the mental accounting of prospect theory, this paper provides the marketing and financial applications in the field of exploration and discussions with the future. For the foreseeable future, the payment behavior depends on the form of currency, which affects a variety of product types on the marketing of marketing strategy to provide diverse payment methods to enhance the overall sales performance. This not only affects people's consumption also affects people's investments. Credit card, PayPal, Apple pay, Bitcoin and any other with advances in technology and other emerging payment instruments, began to affect people for the value and the concept of money. Such as the planning of national social welfare policies, monetary and financial regulators and regulators. The expansion can be expected to discuss marketing and finance-related mental problems at the same time, recent studies reflect two different ideas, the first idea is that individuals affected by situational frames, not broad impact at the event level, affected by the people basically mental, second idea is that when an individual event affects a broader range, and majority of people will choose the same at the time that the rational choice. That are applied to practical application of marketing, at the same time provide an explanation in the financial market under the anomalies, due to the financial markets has varied investment products and different market participants, that also highlights these two points. It would provide in-depth description of humanity's mental. Certainly, about discuss mental accounting aspects, while artificial intelligence application development, although people would be able to reduce prejudice decisions, that will also lead to more discussion on the economic and marketing strategy.

Keywords: mental accounting, behavior economics, consumer behaviors, decision-making

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Authors: Sana Ahrar

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Cities are undergoing rapid transformation with the change in lifestyle and technological advancements. These transformations may be experienced or physically visible in the built form. This paper focuses on the relationship between the social, physical environment, change in lifestyle and the interrelated factors influencing the transformation of any historic city. Shahjahanabad as a city has undergone transformation under the various political powers as well as the various policy implementations after independence. These visible traces of transformation diffused throughout the city may be due to socio-economic, historic, political factors and due to the globalization process. This study shall enable evolving a theory for the study of transformation of Historic cities such as Shahjahanabad: which has been plundered, rebuilt, and which still thrives as a ‘living heritage city’. The theory developed will be the process of studying the transformation and can be used by planners, policy makers and researchers in different urban contexts.

Keywords: heritage, historic cities, Shahjahanabad, transformation

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Authors: Alexis Akinyemi, Laurene Houtin

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Measures of employee motivation at work are often based on the theory of self-determined motivation, which implies that human resources departments and managers seek to motivate employees in the most self-determined way possible and use strategies to achieve this goal. In practice, they often tend to assess employee motivation and then adapt management to the most important source of motivation for their employees, for example by financially rewarding an employee who is extrinsically motivated, and by rewarding an intrinsically motivated employee with congratulations and recognition. Thus, the use of motivation measures contradicts theoretical positioning: theory does not provide for the promotion of extrinsically motivated behaviour. In addition, a corpus of social psychology linked to fundamental needs makes it possible to personally address a person’s different sources of motivation (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects and need for closure). By developing a composite measure of motivation based on these needs, we provide human resources professionals, and in particular occupational psychologists, with a tool that complements the assessment of self-determined motivation, making it possible to precisely address the objective of adapting work not to the self-determination of behaviours, but to the motivational traits of employees. To develop such a model, we gathered the French versions of the cognitive needs scales (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects, need for closure) and conducted a study with 645 employees of several French companies. On the basis of the data collected, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the model, studied the correlations between the various needs, and highlighted the different reference groups that could be used to use these needs as a basis for interviews with employees (career, recruitment, etc.). The results showed a coherent model and the expected links between the different needs. Taken together, these results make it possible to propose a valid and theoretically adjusted tool to managers who wish to adapt their management to their employees’ current motivations, whether or not these motivations are self-determined.

Keywords: motivation, personality, work commitment, cognitive needs

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Authors: Sudaff Mohammed, Wahda Shuker Al-Hinkawi, Nada Abdulmueen Hasan

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The compatibility of the Rhizome and Complex Adaptive system theory as a strategy within the urban context is the essential interest of this paper since there are only a few attempts to establish a hybrid, multi-scalar, and developable strategy based on the concept of the Rhizome and the CAS theory. This paper aims to establish a Rhizomic CAS strategy for different urban contexts by investigating the principles, characteristics, properties, and mechanisms of Rhizome and Complex Adaptive Systems. The research focused mainly on analyzing three properties: aggregation, non-linearity, and flow through the lens of Rhizome, Rhizomatization of CAS properties. The most intriguing result is that the principal and well-investigated characteristics of Complex Adaptive systems can be ‘Rhizomatized’ in two ways; highlighting commonalities between Rhizome and Complex Adaptive systems in addition to using Rhizome-related concepts. This paper attempts to emphasize the potency of the Rhizome as an apparently stochastic and barely anticipatable structure that can be developed to analyze cities of distinctive contexts for formulating better customized urban strategies.

Keywords: rhizome, complex adaptive system (CAS), system Theory, urban system, rhizomatic CAS, assemblage, human occupation impulses (HOI)

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Authors: Ryan A. Black, Stacey A. McCaffrey

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Over the past few decades, great strides have been made towards improving the science in the measurement of psychological constructs. Item Response Theory (IRT) has been the foundation upon which statistical models have been derived to increase both precision and accuracy in psychological measurement. These models are now being used widely to develop and refine tests intended to measure an individual's level of academic achievement, aptitude, and intelligence. Recently, the field of clinical psychology has adopted IRT models to measure psychopathological phenomena such as depression, anxiety, and addiction. Because advances in IRT measurement models are being made so rapidly across various fields, it has become quite challenging for psychologists and other behavioral scientists to keep abreast of the most recent developments, much less learn how to employ and decide which models are the most appropriate to use in their line of work. In the same vein, IRT measurement models vary greatly in complexity in several interrelated ways including but not limited to the number of item-specific parameters estimated in a given model, the function which links the expected response and the predictor, response option formats, as well as dimensionality. As a result, inferior methods (a.k.a. Classical Test Theory methods) continue to be employed in efforts to measure psychological constructs, despite evidence showing that IRT methods yield more precise and accurate measurement. To increase the use of IRT methods, this study endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of binary IRT models; that is, measurement models employed on test data consisting of binary response options (e.g., correct/incorrect, true/false, agree/disagree). Specifically, this study will cover the most basic binary IRT model, known as the 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model dating back to over 50 years ago, up until the most recent complex, 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model. Binary IRT models will be defined mathematically and the interpretation of each parameter will be provided. Next, all four binary IRT models will be employed on two sets of data: 1. Simulated data of N=500,000 subjects who responded to four dichotomous items and 2. A pilot analysis of real-world data collected from a sample of approximately 770 subjects who responded to four self-report dichotomous items pertaining to emotional consequences to alcohol use. Real-world data were based on responses collected on items administered to subjects as part of a scale-development study (NIDA Grant No. R44 DA023322). IRT analyses conducted on both the simulated data and analyses of real-world pilot will provide a clear demonstration of how to construct, evaluate, and compare binary IRT measurement models. All analyses will be performed using the new IRT procedure in SAS 9.4. SAS code to generate simulated data and analyses will be available upon request to allow for replication of results.

Keywords: instrument development, item response theory, latent trait theory, psychometrics

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Tarek Zayed, Osama Moselhi

Abstract:

In this paper, an effective non-destructive, non-invasive approach for leak detection was proposed. The process relies on analyzing thermal images collected by an IR viewer device that captures thermo-grams. In this study a statistical analysis of the collected thermal images of the ground surface along the expected leak location followed by a visual inspection of the thermo-grams was performed in order to locate the leak. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach the predicted leak location from the developed approach was compared with the real leak location. The results showed that the expected leak location was successfully identified with an accuracy of more than 95%.

Keywords: thermography, leakage, water pipelines, thermograms

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Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

Abstract:

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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