Search results for: forward modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5071

Search results for: forward modeling

1021 Three-Dimensional Vibration Characteristics of Piezoelectric Semi-Spherical Shell

Authors: Yu-Hsi Huang, Ying-Der Tsai

Abstract:

Piezoelectric circular plates can provide out-of-plane vibrational displacements on low frequency and in-plane vibrational displacements on high frequency. Piezoelectric semi-spherical shell, which is double-curvature structure, can induce three-dimensional vibrational displacements over a large frequency range. In this study, three-dimensional vibrational characteristics of piezoelectric semi-spherical shells with free boundary conditions are investigated using three experimental methods and finite element numerical modeling. For the experimental measurements, amplitude-fluctuation electronic speckle pattern interferometry (AF-ESPI) is used to obtain resonant frequencies and radial and azimuthal mode shapes. This optical technique utilizes a full-field and non-contact optical system that measures both the natural frequency and corresponding vibration mode shape simultaneously in real time. The second experimental technique used, laser displacement meter is a point-wise displacement measurement method that determines the resonant frequencies of the piezoelectric shell. An impedance analyzer is used to determine the in-plane resonant frequencies of the piezoelectric semi-spherical shell. The experimental results of the resonant frequencies and mode shapes for the piezoelectric shell are verified with the result from finite element analysis. Excellent agreement between the experimental measurements and numerical calculation is presented on the three-dimensional vibrational characteristics of the piezoelectric semi-spherical shell.

Keywords: piezoelectric semi-spherical shell, mode shape, resonant frequency, electronic speckle pattern interferometry, radial vibration, azimuthal vibration

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1020 Orthogonal Metal Cutting Simulation of Steel AISI 1045 via Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic Method

Authors: Seyed Hamed Hashemi Sohi, Gerald Jo Denoga

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Machining or metal cutting is one of the most widely used production processes in industry. The quality of the process and the resulting machined product depends on parameters like tool geometry, material, and cutting conditions. However, the relationships of these parameters to the cutting process are often based mostly on empirical knowledge. In this study, computer modeling and simulation using LS-DYNA software and a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) methodology, was performed on the orthogonal metal cutting process to analyze three-dimensional deformation of AISI 1045 medium carbon steel during machining. The simulation was performed using the following constitutive models: the Power Law model, the Johnson-Cook model, and the Zerilli-Armstrong models (Z-A). The outcomes were compared against the simulated results obtained by Cenk Kiliçaslan using the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the empirical results of Jaspers and Filice. The analysis shows that the SPH method combined with the Zerilli-Armstrong constitutive model is a viable alternative to simulating the metal cutting process. The tangential force was overestimated by 7%, and the normal force was underestimated by 16% when compared with empirical values. The simulation values for flow stress versus strain at various temperatures were also validated against empirical values. The SPH method using the Z-A model has also proven to be robust against issues of time-scaling. Experimental work was also done to investigate the effects of friction, rake angle and tool tip radius on the simulation.

Keywords: metal cutting, smoothed particle hydrodynamics, constitutive models, experimental, cutting forces analyses

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1019 The Need for a Tool to Support Users of E-Science Infrastructures in a Virtual Laboratory Environment

Authors: Hashim Chunpir

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Support processes play an important role to facilitate researchers (users) to accomplish their research activities with the help of cyber-infrastructure(s). However, the current user-support process in cyber-infrastructure needs a feasible tool to support users. This tool must enable the users of a cyber-infrastructure to communicate efficiently with the staffs of a cyber-infrastructure in order to get technical and scientific assistance, whilst saving resources at the same time. This research paper narrates the real story of employing various forms of tools to support the user and staff communication. In addition, this paper projects the lessons learned from an exploration of the help-desk tools in the current state of user support process in Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) from support staffs’ perspective. ESGF is a climate cyber-infrastructure that facilitates Earth System Modeling (ESM) and is taken as a case study in this paper. Finally, this study proposes a need for a tool, a framework or a platform that not only improves the user support process to address support servicing needs of end-users of e-Science infrastructures but also eases the life of staffs in providing assistance to the users. With the help of such a tool; the collaboration between users and the staffs of cyber-infrastructures is made easier. Consequently, the research activities of the users of e-Science infrastructure will thrive as the scientific and technical support will be available to users. Finally, this results into painless and productive e-Research.

Keywords: e-Science User Services, e-Research in Earth Sciences, Information Technology Services Management (ITSM), user support process, service desk, management of support activities, help desk tools, application of social media

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1018 Availability of Safety Measures and Knowledge Towards Hazardous Waste Management among Workers in Scientific Laboratories of Two Universities in Lebanon

Authors: Inaam Nasrallah, Pascale Salameh, Abbas El-Outa, Assem Alkak, Rihab Nasr, Wafa Toufic Bawab

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Background: Hazardous Waste Management(HWM). is critical to human health outcomes and environmental protection. This study evaluated the knowledge regarding safety measures to be applied when collecting and storing waste in scientific laboratories of two universities in Lebanon.Method: A survey-based observational study was conducted in scientific laboratories of the public university and that of a private university, where a total of 309 participants were recruited.Result: The mean total knowledge score on safety measures of HWM was 9.02±4.34 (maximum attainable score, 13). Significant association (p<0.05) was found between knowledge score and job function, years of experience, educational level, professional status, work schedule, and training on proper HWM. Participants had adequate perceptions regarding the impact of HWM on health and the environment. Linear regression modeling revealed that knowledge score was significantly higher among bachelor level lab workers compared to those with doctoral degrees (p=0.043), full-time schedule workers versus part-timers (p=0.03), and among public university participants as compared to those of the private university (p<0.001).Conclusion: This study showed good knowledge concerning HWM in the scientific laboratoriesof the studied universities in Lebanon and a good awareness of the HWM on health and the environment. It highlights the importance of culture, attitude, and practice on proper HWM in the academic scientific laboratory.

Keywords: hasardous waste, safety measures, waste management, knwoledge score, scientific laboratory workers

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1017 Assessing the Effect of the Position of the Cavities on the Inner Plate of the Steel Shear Wall under Time History Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Masoud Mahdavi, Mojtaba Farzaneh Moghadam

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The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the RCS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between RCS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and RCS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.

Keywords: hollow steel plate shear wall, time history analysis, finite element method, abaqus software

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1016 In-Silico Fusion of Bacillus Licheniformis Chitin Deacetylase with Chitin Binding Domains from Chitinases

Authors: Keyur Raval, Steffen Krohn, Bruno Moerschbacher

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Chitin, the biopolymer of the N-acetylglucosamine, is the most abundant biopolymer on the planet after cellulose. Industrially, chitin is isolated and purified from the shell residues of shrimps. A deacetylated derivative of chitin i.e. chitosan has more market value and applications owing to it solubility and overall cationic charge compared to the parent polymer. This deacetylation on an industrial scale is performed chemically using alkalis like sodium hydroxide. This reaction not only is hazardous to the environment owing to negative impact on the marine ecosystem. A greener option to this process is the enzymatic process. In nature, the naïve chitin is converted to chitosan by chitin deacetylase (CDA). This enzymatic conversion on the industrial scale is however hampered by the crystallinity of chitin. Thus, this enzymatic action requires the substrate i.e. chitin to be soluble which is technically difficult and an energy consuming process. We in this project wanted to address this shortcoming of CDA. In lieu of this, we have modeled a fusion protein with CDA and an auxiliary protein. The main interest being to increase the accessibility of the enzyme towards crystalline chitin. A similar fusion work with chitinases had improved the catalytic ability towards insoluble chitin. In the first step, suitable partners were searched through the protein data bank (PDB) wherein the domain architecture were sought. The next step was to create the models of the fused product using various in silico techniques. The models were created by MODELLER and evaluated for properties such as the energy or the impairment of the binding sites. A fusion PCR has been designed based on the linker sequences generated by MODELLER and would be tested for its activity towards insoluble chitin.

Keywords: chitin deacetylase, modeling, chitin binding domain, chitinases

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1015 Sports Business Services Model: A Research Model Study in Reginal Sport Authority of Thailand

Authors: Siriraks Khawchaimaha, Sangwian Boonto

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Sport Authority of Thailand (SAT) is the state enterprise, promotes and supports all sports kind both professional and athletes for competitions, and administer under government policy and government officers and therefore, all financial supports whether cash inflows and cash outflows are strictly committed to government budget and limited to the planned projects at least 12 to 16 months ahead of reality, as results of ineffective in sport events, administration and competitions. In order to retain in the sports challenges around the world, SAT need to has its own sports business services model by each stadium, region and athletes’ competencies. Based on the HMK model of Khawchaimaha, S. (2007), this research study is formalized into each 10 regional stadiums to details into the characteristics root of fans, athletes, coaches, equipments and facilities, and stadiums. The research designed is firstly the evaluation of external factors: hardware whereby competition or practice of stadiums, playground, facilities, and equipments. Secondly, to understand the software of the organization structure, staffs and management, administrative model, rules and practices. In addition, budget allocation and budget administration with operating plan and expenditure plan. As results for the third step, issues and limitations which require action plan for further development and support, or to cease that unskilled sports kind. The final step, based on the HMK model and modeling canvas by Alexander O and Yves P (2010) are those of template generating Sports Business Services Model for each 10 SAT’s regional stadiums.

Keywords: HMK model, not for profit organization, sport business model, sport services model

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1014 Modeling of Particle Reduction and Volatile Compounds Profile during Chocolate Conching by Electronic Nose and Genetic Programming (GP) Based System

Authors: Juzhong Tan, William Kerr

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Conching is one critical procedure in chocolate processing, where special flavors are developed, and smooth mouse feel the texture of the chocolate is developed due to particle size reduction of cocoa mass and other additives. Therefore, determination of the particle size and volatile compounds profile of cocoa bean is important for chocolate manufacturers to ensure the quality of chocolate products. Currently, precise particle size measurement is usually done by laser scattering which is expensive and inaccessible to small/medium size chocolate manufacturers. Also, some other alternatives, such as micrometer and microscopy, can’t provide good measurements and provide little information. Volatile compounds analysis of cocoa during conching, has similar problems due to its high cost and limited accessibility. In this study, a self-made electronic nose system consists of gas sensors (TGS 800 and 2000 series) was inserted to a conching machine and was used to monitoring the volatile compound profile of chocolate during the conching. A model correlated volatile compounds profiles along with factors including the content of cocoa, sugar, and the temperature during the conching to particle size of chocolate particles by genetic programming was established. The model was used to predict the particle size reduction of chocolates with different cocoa mass to sugar ratio (1:2, 1:1, 1.5:1, 2:1) at 8 conching time (15min, 30min, 1h, 1.5h, 2h, 4h, 8h, and 24h). And the predictions were compared to laser scattering measurements of the same chocolate samples. 91.3% of the predictions were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 5% deviation. 99.3% were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 10% deviation.

Keywords: cocoa bean, conching, electronic nose, genetic programming

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1013 Post-Secondary Faculty Treatment of Non-Native English-Speaking Student Writing Errors in Academic Subject Courses

Authors: Laura E. Monroe

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As more non-native English-speaking students enroll in English-medium universities, even more faculty will instruct students who are unprepared for the rigors of post-secondary academic writing in English. Many faculty members lack training and knowledge regarding the assessment of non-native English-speaking students’ writing, as well as the ability to provide effective feedback. This quantitative study investigated the possible attitudinal factors, including demographics, which might affect faculty preparedness and grading practices for both native and non-native English-speaking students’ academic writing and plagiarism, as well as the reasons faculty do not deduct points from both populations’ writing errors. Structural equation modeling and SPSS Statistics were employed to analyze the results of a faculty questionnaire disseminated to individuals who had taught non-native English-speaking students in academic subject courses. The findings from this study illustrated that faculty’s native language, years taught, and institution type were significant factors in not deducting points for academic writing errors and plagiarism, and the major reasons for not deducting points for errors were that faculty had too many students to grade, not enough training in assessing student written errors and plagiarism and that the errors and plagiarism would have taken too long to explain. The practical implications gleaned from these results can be applied to most departments in English-medium post-secondary institutions regarding faculty preparedness and training in student academic writing errors and plagiarism, and recommendations for future research are given for similar types of preparation and guidance for post-secondary faculty, regardless of degree path or academic subject.

Keywords: assessment, faculty, non-native English-speaking students, writing

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1012 Integration of GIS with Remote Sensing and GPS for Disaster Mitigation

Authors: Sikander Nawaz Khan

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Natural disasters like flood, earthquake, cyclone, volcanic eruption and others are causing immense losses to the property and lives every year. Current status and actual loss information of natural hazards can be determined and also prediction for next probable disasters can be made using different remote sensing and mapping technologies. Global Positioning System (GPS) calculates the exact position of damage. It can also communicate with wireless sensor nodes embedded in potentially dangerous places. GPS provide precise and accurate locations and other related information like speed, track, direction and distance of target object to emergency responders. Remote Sensing facilitates to map damages without having physical contact with target area. Now with the addition of more remote sensing satellites and other advancements, early warning system is used very efficiently. Remote sensing is being used both at local and global scale. High Resolution Satellite Imagery (HRSI), airborne remote sensing and space-borne remote sensing is playing vital role in disaster management. Early on Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to collect, arrange, and map the spatial information but now it has capability to analyze spatial data. This analytical ability of GIS is the main cause of its adaption by different emergency services providers like police and ambulance service. Full potential of these so called 3S technologies cannot be used in alone. Integration of GPS and other remote sensing techniques with GIS has pointed new horizons in modeling of earth science activities. Many remote sensing cases including Asian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, Mount Mangart landslides and Pakistan-India earthquake in 2005 are described in this paper.

Keywords: disaster mitigation, GIS, GPS, remote sensing

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1011 Impact of Higher Educational Institute's Culture on Employees' Satisfaction and Commitment in Sultanate of Oman

Authors: Mahfoodh Saleh Al Sabbagh, Amitabh Mishra, Anwar Al Sheyadi

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A tremendous transformation is taking place in the state of education in Sultanate of Oman. The vision 2040 for Higher Education focuses on both academic and technical sides of education aims at improving the quality of education as per higher international standards with emphasis on learning and innovation, creativity and scientific research. The objective is to achieve a proficient education system that keeps abreast of the recent development, the essentials of sustainable development and enhancing the national identity. Higher Education Institutes have contributed immensely to the growth of education in Oman, in this context; Business Organization represents the most complex social structure known today due to its dynamic nature. Employees are considered as one of the dynamic resources of the organization and through their commitment and involvement organization becomes competitive. Organization Culture can be promoted to facilitate the achievement of job satisfaction and employees commitment. The purpose of the research is to explore the impact of Higher Educational Institutions Culture on employee satisfaction, and commitment. Based on primary data, the study was conducted in Higher Education Institutions in the Sultanate of Oman. Data was collected through questionnaire consisting of 60 questions related to culture, satisfaction, and commitment. The sample consisted of 330 employees of leading Higher Education Institutes in the Sultanate of Oman. Structural Equation Modeling was carried out on the data through SPSS and AMOS. Results indicate that culture of organization is significantly related with employees’ satisfaction and commitment both in direct and indirect ways. Significant theoretical and practical implications are driven from the outcomes of the study.

Keywords: organization culture, employee satisfaction and commitment, higher education, Sultanate of Oman

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1010 Clouds Influence on Atmospheric Ozone from GOME-2 Satellite Measurements

Authors: S. M. Samkeyat Shohan

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This study is mainly focused on the determination and analysis of the photolysis rate of atmospheric, specifically tropospheric, ozone as function of cloud properties through-out the year 2007. The observational basis for ozone concentrations and cloud properties are the measurement data set of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) sensor on board the polar orbiting Metop-A satellite. Two different spectral ranges are used; ozone total column are calculated from the wavelength window 325 – 335 nm, while cloud properties, such as cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical thick-ness (COT) are derived from the absorption band of molecular oxygen centered at 761 nm. Cloud fraction (CF) is derived from measurements in the ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared range of GOME-2. First, ozone concentrations above clouds are derived from ozone total columns, subtracting the contribution of stratospheric ozone and filtering those satellite measurements which have thin and low clouds. Then, the values of ozone photolysis derived from observations are compared with theoretical modeled results, in the latitudinal belt 5˚N-5˚S and 20˚N - 20˚S, as function of CF and COT. In general, good agreement is found between the data and the model, proving both the quality of the space-borne ozone and cloud properties as well as the modeling theory of ozone photolysis rate. The found discrepancies can, however, amount to approximately 15%. Latitudinal seasonal changes of photolysis rate of ozone are found to be negatively correlated to changes in upper-tropospheric ozone concentrations only in the autumn and summer months within the northern and southern tropical belts, respectively. This fact points to the entangled roles of temperature and nitrogen oxides in the ozone production, which are superimposed on its sole photolysis induced by thick and high clouds in the tropics.

Keywords: cloud properties, photolysis rate, stratospheric ozone, tropospheric ozone

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1009 Partially Phosphorylated Polyvinyl Phosphate-PPVP Composite: Synthesis and Its Potentiality for Zr (IV) Extraction from an Acidic Medium

Authors: Khaled Alshamari

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Synthesized partially phosphorylated polyvinyl phosphate derivative (PPVP) was functionalized to extract Zirconium (IV) from Egyptian zircon sand. The specifications for the PPVP composite were approved effectively via different techniques, namely, FT-IR, XPS, BET, EDX, TGA, HNMR, C-NMR, GC-MS, XRD and ICP-OES analyses, which demonstrated a satisfactory synthesis of PPVP and zircon dissolution from Egyptian zircon sand. Factors controlling parameters, such as pH values, shaking time, initial zirconium concentration, PPVP dose, nitrate ions concentration, co-ions, temperature and eluting agents, have been optimized. At 25 ◦C, pH 0, 20 min shaking, 0.05 mol/L zirconium ions and 0.5 mol/L nitrate ions, PPVP has an exciting preservation potential of 195 mg/g, equivalent to 390 mg/L zirconium ions. From the extraction–distribution isotherm, the practical outcomes of Langmuir’s modeling are better than the Freundlich model, with a theoretical value of 196.07 mg/g, which is more in line with the experimental results of 195 mg/g. The zirconium ions adsorption onto the PPVP composite follows the pseudo-second-order kinetics with a theoretical capacity value of 204.08 mg/g. According to thermodynamic potential, the extraction process was expected to be an exothermic, spontaneous and beneficial extraction at low temperatures. The thermodynamic parameters ∆S (−0.03 kJ/mol), ∆H (−12.22 kJ/mol) and ∆G were also considered. As the temperature grows, ∆G values increase from −2.948 kJ/mol at 298 K to −1.941 kJ/mol at 338 K. Zirconium ions may be eluted from the working loaded PPVP by 0.025M HNO₃, with a 99% efficiency rate. It was found that zirconium ions revealed good separation factors towards some co-ions such as Hf⁴+ (28.82), Fe³+ (10.64), Ti⁴+ (28.82), V⁵+ (86.46) and U⁶+ (68.17). A successful alkali fusion technique with NaOH flux followed by the extraction with PPVP is used to obtain a high-purity zirconia concentrate with a zircon content of 72.77 % and a purity of 98.29%. As a result of this, the improved factors could finally be used.

Keywords: zirconium extraction, partially phosphorylated polyvinyl phosphate (PPVP), acidic medium, zircon

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1008 The Impact of Shifting Trading Pattern from Long-Haul to Short-Sea to the Car Carriers’ Freight Revenues

Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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1007 Modeling Water Inequality and Water Security: The Role of Water Governance

Authors: Pius Babuna, Xiaohua Yang, Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan, Bian Dehui, Mohammed Takase, Bismarck Yelfogle Guba, Chuanliang Han, Doris Abra Awudi, Meishui Lia

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Water inequality, water security, and water governance are fundamental parameters that affect the sustainable use of water resources. Through policy formulation and decision-making, water governance determines both water security and water inequality. Largely, where water inequality exists, water security is undermined through unsustainable water use practices that lead to pollution of water resources, conflicts, hoarding of water, and poor sanitation. Incidentally, the interconnectedness of water governance, water inequality, and water security has not been investigated previously. This study modified the Gini coefficient and used a Logistics Growth of Water Resources (LGWR) Model to access water inequality and water security mathematically, and discussed the connected role of water governance. We tested the validity of both models by calculating the actual water inequality and water security of Ghana. We also discussed the implications of water inequality on water security and the overarching role of water governance. The results show that regional water inequality is widespread in some parts. The Volta region showed the highest water inequality (Gini index of 0.58), while the central region showed the lowest (Gini index of 0.15). Water security is moderately sustainable. The use of water resources is currently stress-free. It was estimated to maintain such status until 2132 ± 18, when Ghana will consume half of the current total water resources of 53.2 billion cubic meters. Effectively, water inequality is a threat to water security, results in poverty, under-development heightens tensions in water use, and causes instability. With proper water governance, water inequality can be eliminated through formulating and implementing approaches that engender equal allocation and sustainable use of water resources.

Keywords: water inequality, water security, water governance, Gini coefficient, moran index, water resources management

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1006 Assessment of Air Pollutant Dispersion and Soil Contamination: The Critical Role of MATLAB Modeling in Evaluating Emissions from the Covanta Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Facility

Authors: Jadon Matthiasa, Cindy Donga, Ali Al Jibouria, Hsin Kuo

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The environmental impact of emissions from the Covanta Waste-to-Energy facility in Burnaby, BC, was comprehensively evaluated, focusing on the dispersion of air pollutants and the subsequent assessment of heavy metal contamination in surrounding soils. A Gaussian Plume Model, implemented in MATLAB, was utilized to simulate the dispersion of key pollutants to understand their atmospheric behaviour and potential deposition patterns. The MATLAB code developed for this study enhanced the accuracy of pollutant concentration predictions and provided capabilities for visualizing pollutant dispersion in 3D plots. Furthermore, the code could predict the maximum concentration of pollutants at ground level, eliminating the need to use the Ranchoux model for predictions. Complementing the modelling approach, empirical soil sampling and analysis were conducted to evaluate heavy metal concentrations in the vicinity of the facility. This integrated methodology underscored the importance of computational modelling in air pollution assessment and highlighted the necessity of soil analysis to obtain a holistic understanding of environmental impacts. The findings emphasized the effectiveness of current emissions controls while advocating for ongoing monitoring to safeguard public health and environmental integrity.

Keywords: air emissions, Gaussian Plume Model, MATLAB, soil contamination, air pollution monitoring, waste-to-energy, pollutant dispersion visualization, heavy metal analysis, environmental impact assessment, emission control effectiveness

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1005 Competing Risks Modeling Using within Node Homogeneity Classification Tree

Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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1004 Modeling and Simulation of Secondary Breakup and Its Influence on Fuel Spray in High Torque Low Speed Diesel Engine

Authors: Mohsin Raza, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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High torque low-speed diesel engine has a wide range of industrial and commercial applications. In literature, it’s found that lot of work has been done for the high-speed diesel engine and research on High Torque low-speed is rare. The fuel injection plays a key role in the efficiency of engine and reduction in exhaust emission. The fuel breakup plays a critical role in air-fuel mixture and spray combustion. The current study explains numerically an important phenomenon in spray combustion which is deformation and breakup of liquid drops in compression ignition internal combustion engine. The secondary breakup and its influence on spray and characteristics of compressed gas in-cylinder have been calculated by using simulation software in the backdrop of high torque low-speed diesel like conditions. The secondary spray breakup is modeled with KH - RT instabilities. The continuous field is described by turbulence model and dynamics of the dispersed droplet is modeled by Lagrangian tracking scheme. The results by using KH - RT model are compared against other default methods in OpenFOAM and published experimental data from research and implemented in CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). These numerical simulation, done in OpenFoam and Matlab, results are analyzed for the complete 720- degree 4 stroke engine cycle at a low engine speed, for favorable agreement to be achieved. Results thus obtained will be analyzed for better evaporation in near nozzle region. The proposed analyses will further help in better engine efficiency, low emission and improved fuel economy.

Keywords: diesel fuel, KH-RT, Lagrangian , Open FOAM, secondary breakup

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1003 Determination Optimum Strike Price of FX Option Call Spread with USD/IDR Volatility and Garman–Kohlhagen Model Analysis

Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

Abstract:

On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

Procedia PDF Downloads 380
1002 Seismic Reflection Highlights of New Miocene Deep Aquifers in Eastern Tunisia Basin (North Africa)

Authors: Mourad Bédir, Sami Khomsi, Hakim Gabtni, Hajer Azaiez, Ramzi Gharsalli, Riadh Chebbi

Abstract:

Eastern Tunisia is a semi-arid area; located in the northern Africa plate; southern Mediterranean side. It is facing water scarcity, overexploitation, and decreasing of water quality of phreatic water table. Water supply and storage will not respond to the demographic and economic growth and demand. In addition, only 5 109 m3 of rainwater from 35 109 m3 per year renewable rain water supply can be retained and remobilized. To remediate this water deficiency, researches had been focused to near new subsurface deep aquifers resources. Among them, Upper Miocene sandstone deposits of Béglia, Saouaf, and Somaa Formations. These sandstones are known for their proven Hydrogeologic and hydrocarbon reservoir characteristics in the Tunisian margin. They represent semi-confined to confined aquifers. This work is based on new integrated approaches of seismic stratigraphy, seismic tectonics, and hydrogeology, to highlight and characterize these reservoirs levels for aquifer exploitation in semi-arid area. As a result, five to six third order sequence deposits had been highlighted. They are composed of multi-layered extended sandstones reservoirs; separated by shales packages. These reservoir deposits represent lowstand and highstand system tracts of these sequences, which represent lowstand and highstand system tracts of these sequences. They constitute important strategic water resources volumes for the region.

Keywords: Tunisia, Hydrogeology, sandstones, basin, seismic, aquifers, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
1001 Managing Food Waste Behaviour in Saudi Arabia: Investigating the Role of Social Marketing

Authors: Suliman Al Balawi

Abstract:

Food waste is a significant problem in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). About SR13 billion worth of food is wasted per year in the KSA. From moral, social, and economic perspectives, it is essential to reduce the wastage of food. Although studies have identified the amount of food waste in the KSA, there is a lack of research on why people in the KSA waste food; thus, it is difficult to design efficient intervention programs to reduce food waste. This research investigates the key factors that influence the food waste behavior of the people of the KSA. A food waste behavior model is proposed in this study that has moral disengagement at the center of the model. Following a literature survey, it is hypothesised that religiosity, hedonic value, frugality, and trait cynicism are the antecedents of moral disengagement that are likely to impact the food waste behavior of the people of the KSA. The study further posits that an intervention strategy in the form of a social marketing campaign that focuses on lowering the level of moral disengagement could reduce the food waste behavior of the people of the KSA. This study will apply a pre-test/post-test experimental design (control group). A random sampling method will be used to select participants from the (employees of a chosen firm) in the KSA. The social marketing campaign will be run for six months through the Corporate Social Responsibility Department of the Company, and to analyse the experimental data, structural equation modeling (SEM) will be used. The outcomes of the study will demonstrate the effectiveness of a social marketing campaign for improving the food waste behavior of the people of the KSA and will ultimately lay the foundation for designing efficient intervention programs in the future. This study will contribute to the knowledge on food waste behavior by testing a newly proposed food waste behavior model in the KSA.

Keywords: food waste, social marketing, Saudi Arabia, moral disengagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 182
1000 Waste Scavenging as a Waste-to-Wealth Strategy for Waste Reduction in Port Harcourt City Nigeria: A Mixed Method Study

Authors: Osungwu Emeka

Abstract:

Until recently, Port Harcourt was known as the “Garden City of Nigeria” because of its neatness and the overwhelming presence of vegetation all over the metropolis. But today, the presence of piles of refuse dotting the entire city may have turned Port Harcourt into a “Garbage City”. Indiscriminate dumping of industrial, commercial and household wastes such as food waste, paper, polythene, textiles, scrap metals, glasses, wood, plastic, etc. at street corners and gutters, is still very common. The waste management problem in the state affects the citizens both directly and indirectly. The dumping of waste along the roadside obstructs traffic and, after mixing with rain water may sip underground with the possibility of the leachate contaminating the groundwater. The basic solid waste management processes of collection, transportation, segregation and final disposal appear to be very inefficient. This study was undertaken to assess waste utilization using metal waste scavengers. Highlighting their activities as a part of the informal sector of the solid waste management system with a view to identifying their challenges, prospects and possible contributions to the solid waste management system in the Port Harcourt metropolis. Therefore, the aim was to understand and assess scavenging as a system of solid waste management in Port Harcourt and to identify the main bottlenecks to its efficiency and the way forward. This study targeted people who engage in scavenging metal scraps across 5 major waste dump sites across Port Harcourt. To achieve this, a mixed method study was conducted to provide both experiential evidence on this waste utilization method using a qualitative study and a survey to collect numeric evidence on this subject. The findings from the qualitative string of this study provided insight on scavenging as a waste utilization activity and how their activities can reduce the gross waste generated and collected from the subject areas. It further showed the nature and characteristics of scavengers in the waste recycling system as a means of achieving the millennium development goals towards poverty alleviation, job creation and the development of a sustainable, cleaner environment. The study showed that in Port Harcourt, the waste management practice involves the collection, transportation and disposal of waste by refuse contractors using cart pushers and disposal vehicles at designated dumpsites where the scavengers salvage metal scraps for recycling and reuse. This study further indicates that there is a great demand for metal waste materials/products that are clearly identified as genuinely sustainable, even though they may be perceived as waste. The market for these waste materials shall promote entrepreneurship as a profitable venture for waste recovery and recycling in Port Harcourt. Therefore, the benefit of resource recovery and recycling as a means of the solid waste management system will enhance waste to wealth that will reduce pollution, create job opportunities thereby alleviate poverty.

Keywords: scavengers, metal waste, waste-to-wealth, recycle, Port Harcourt, Nigeria, waste reduction, garden city, waste

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999 Aerodynamic Analysis by Computational Fluids Dynamics in Building: Case Study

Authors: Javier Navarro Garcia, Narciso Vazquez Carretero

Abstract:

Eurocode 1, part 1-4, wind actions, includes in its article 1.5 the possibility of using numerical calculation methods to obtain information on the loads acting on a building. On the other hand, the analysis using computational fluids dynamics (CFD) in aerospace, aeronautical, and industrial applications is already in widespread use. The application of techniques based on CFD analysis on the building to study its aerodynamic behavior now opens a whole alternative field of possibilities for civil engineering and architecture; optimization of the results with respect to those obtained by applying the regulations, the possibility of obtaining information on pressures, speeds at any point of the model for each moment, the analysis of turbulence and the possibility of modeling any geometry or configuration. The present work compares the results obtained on a building, with respect to its aerodynamic behavior, from a mathematical model based on the analysis by CFD with the results obtained by applying Eurocode1, part1-4, wind actions. It is verified that the results obtained by CFD techniques suppose an optimization of the wind action that acts on the building with respect to the wind action obtained by applying the Eurocode1, part 1-4, wind actions. In order to carry out this verification, a 45m high square base truncated pyramid building has been taken. The mathematical model on CFD, based on finite volumes, has been calculated using the FLUENT commercial computer application using a scale-resolving simulation (SRS) type large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model for an atmospheric boundary layer wind with turbulent component in the direction of the flow.

Keywords: aerodynamic, CFD, computacional fluids dynamics, computational mechanics

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
998 Modeling Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield in Geba Catchment, Ethiopia

Authors: Gebremedhin Kiros, Amba Shetty, Lakshman Nandagiri

Abstract:

Soil erosion is a major threat to the sustainability of land and water resources in the catchment and there is a need to identify critical areas of erosion so that suitable conservation measures may be adopted. The present study was taken up to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion and daily sediment yield in Geba catchment (5137 km2) located in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Geba catchment using data pertaining to rainfall, climate, soils, topography and land use/land cover (LU/LC) for the historical period 2000-2013. LU/LC distribution in the catchment was characterized using LANDSAT satellite imagery and the GIS-based ArcSWAT version of the model. The model was calibrated and validated using sediment concentration measurements made at the catchment outlet. The catchment was divided into 13 sub-basins and based on estimated soil erosion, these were prioritized on the basis of susceptibility to soil erosion. Model results indicated that the average sediment yield estimated of the catchment was 12.23 tons/ha/yr. The generated soil loss map indicated that a large portion of the catchment has high erosion rates resulting in significantly large sediment yield at the outlet. Steep and unstable terrain, the occurrence of highly erodible soils and low vegetation cover appeared to favor high soil erosion. Results obtained from this study prove useful in adopting in targeted soil and water conservation measures and promote sustainable management of natural resources in the Geba and similar catchments in the region.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Geba catchment, MUSLE, sediment yield, SWAT Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 313
997 Design of Microwave Building Block by Using Numerical Search Algorithm

Authors: Haifeng Zhou, Tsungyang Liow, Xiaoguang Tu, Eujin Lim, Chao Li, Junfeng Song, Xianshu Luo, Ying Huang, Lianxi Jia, Lianwee Luo, Qing Fang, Mingbin Yu, Guoqiang Lo

Abstract:

With the development of technology, countries gradually allocated more and more frequency spectrums for civilization and commercial usage, especially those high radio frequency bands indicating high information capacity. The field effect becomes more and more prominent in microwave components as frequency increases, which invalidates the transmission line theory and complicate the design of microwave components. Here a modeling approach based on numerical search algorithm is proposed to design various building blocks for microwave circuits to avoid complicated impedance matching and equivalent electrical circuit approximation. Concretely, a microwave component is discretized to a set of segments along the microwave propagation path. Each of the segment is initialized with random dimensions, which constructs a multiple-dimension parameter space. Then numerical searching algorithms (e.g. Pattern search algorithm) are used to find out the ideal geometrical parameters. The optimal parameter set is achieved by evaluating the fitness of S parameters after a number of iterations. We had adopted this approach in our current projects and designed many microwave components including sharp bends, T-branches, Y-branches, microstrip-to-stripline converters and etc. For example, a stripline 90° bend was designed in 2.54 mm x 2.54 mm space for dual-band operation (Ka band and Ku band) with < 0.18 dB insertion loss and < -55 dB reflection. We expect that this approach can enrich the tool kits for microwave designers.

Keywords: microwave component, microstrip and stripline, bend, power division, the numerical search algorithm.

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
996 Understanding Talent Management In French Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises: Towards Multi-Level Modeling

Authors: Abid Kousay

Abstract:

Appeared and developed essentially in large companies and multinationals, Talent Management (TM) in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) has remained an under-explored subject till today. Although the literature on TM in the Anglo-Saxon context is developing, it remains monopolized in non-European contexts, especially in France. Therefore, this article aims to address these shortcomings through contributing to TM issues by adopting a multilevel approach holding the goal of reaching a global holistic vision of interactions between various levels while applying TM. A qualitative research study carried out within 12 SMEs in France, built on the methodological perspective of grounded theory, will be used in order to go beyond description, to generate or discover a theory or even a unified theoretical explanation. Our theoretical contributions are the results of the grounded theory, the fruit of context considerations and the dynamic of the multilevel approach. We aim firstly to determine the perception of talent and TM in SMEs. Secondly, we formalize TM in SME through the empowerment of all 3 levels in the organization (individual, collective, and organizational). And we generate a multilevel dynamic system model, highlighting the institutionalization dimension in SMEs and the managerial conviction characterized by the domination of the leader’s role. Thirdly, this first study sheds light on the importance of rigorous implementation of TM in SMEs in France by directing CEO and HR and TM managers to focus on elements that upstream TM implementation and influence the system internally. Indeed, our systematic multilevel approach policy reminds them of the importance of strategic alignment while translating TM policy into strategies and practices in SMEs.

Keywords: French context, multilevel approach, talent management, , TM system

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995 Accuracy of Fitbit Charge 4 for Measuring Heart Rate in Parkinson’s Patients During Intense Exercise

Authors: Giulia Colonna, Jocelyn Hoye, Bart de Laat, Gelsina Stanley, Jose Key, Alaaddin Ibrahimy, Sule Tinaz, Evan D. Morris

Abstract:

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease and affects approximately 1% of the world’s population. Increasing evidence suggests that aerobic physical exercise can be beneficial in mitigating both motor and non-motor symptoms of the disease. In a recent pilot study of the role of exercise on PD, we sought to confirm exercise intensity by monitoring heart rate (HR). For this purpose, we asked participants to wear a chest strap heart rate monitor (Polar Electro Oy, Kempele). The device sometimes proved uncomfortable. Looking forward to larger clinical trials, it would be convenient to employ a more comfortable and user friendly device. The Fitbit Charge 4 (Fitbit Inc) is a potentially comfortable, user-friendly solution since it is a wrist-worn heart rate monitor. Polar H10 has been used in large trials, and for our purposes, we treated it as the gold standard for the beat-to-beat period (R-R interval) assessment. In previous literature, it has been shown that Fitbit Charge 4 has comparable accuracy to Polar H10 in healthy subjects. It has yet to be determined if the Fitbit is as accurate as the Polar H10 in subjects with PD or in clinical populations, generally. Goal: To compare the Fitbit Charge 4 to the Polar H10 for monitoring HR in PD subjects engaging in an intensive exercise program. Methods: A total of 596 exercise sessions from 11 subjects (6 males) were collected simultaneously by both devices. Subjects with early-stage PD (Hoehn & Yahr <=2) were enrolled in a 6 months exercise training program designed for PD patients. Subjects participated in 3 one-hour exercise sessions per week. They wore both Fitbit and Polar H10 during each session. Sessions included rest, warm-up, intensive exercise, and cool-down periods. We calculated the bias in the HR via Fitbit under rest (5min) and intensive exercise (20min) by comparing the mean HR during each of the periods to the respective means measured by the Polar (HRFitbit – HRPolar). We also measured the sensitivity and specificity of Fitbit for detecting HRs that exceed the threshold for intensive exercise, defined as 70% of an individual’s theoretical maximum HR. Different types of correlation between the two devices were investigated. Results: The mean bias was 1.68 bpm at rest and 6.29 bpm during high intensity exercise, with an overestimation by Fitbit in both conditions. The mean bias of Fitbit across both rest and intensive exercise periods was 3.98 bpm. The sensitivity of the device in identifying high intensity exercise sessions was 97.14 %. The correlation between the two devices was non-linear, suggesting a saturation tendency of Fitbit to saturate at high values of HR. Conclusion: The performance of Fitbit Charge 4 is comparable to Polar H10 for assessing exercise intensity in a cohort of PD subjects. The device should be considered a reasonable replacement for the more cumbersome chest strap technology in future similar studies of clinical populations.

Keywords: fitbit, heart rate measurements, parkinson’s disease, wrist-wearable devices

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994 Influence of Travel Time Reliability on Elderly Drivers Crash Severity

Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

Abstract:

Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 493
993 Tectono-Thermal Evolution of Ningwu-Jingle Basin in North China Craton: Constraints from Apatite (U–Th-Sm)/He and Fission Track Thermochronology

Authors: Zhibin Lei, Minghui Yang

Abstract:

Ningwu-Jingle basin is a structural syncline which has undergone a complex tectono-thermal history since Cretaceous. It stretches along the strike of the northern Lvliang Mountains which are the most important mountains in the middle and west of North China Craton. The Mesozoic units make up of the core of Ningwu-Jingle Basin, with pre-Mesozoic units making up of its flanks. The available low-temperature thermochronology implies that Ningwu-Jingle Basin has experienced two stages of uplifting: 94±7Ma to 111±8Ma (Albian to Cenomanian) and 62±4 to 75±5Ma (Danian to Maastrichtian). In order to constrain its tectono-thermal history in the Cenozoic, both apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating analysis are applied on 3 Middle Jurassic and 3 Upper Triassic sandstone samples. The central fission track ages range from 74.4±8.8Ma to 66.0±8.0Ma (Campanian to Maastrichtian) which matches well with previous data. The central He ages range from 20.1±1.2Ma to 49.1±3.0Ma (Ypresian to Burdigalian). Inverse thermal modeling is established based on both apatite fission track data and (U-Th-Sm)/He data. The thermal history obtained reveals that all 6 sandstone samples cross the high-temperature limit of fission track partial annealing zone by the uppermost Cretaceous and that of He partial retention zone by the uppermost Eocene to the early Oligocene. The result indicates that the middle and west of North China Craton is not stable in the Cenozoic.

Keywords: apatite fission track thermochronology, apatite (u–th)/he thermochronology, Ningwu-Jingle basin, North China craton, tectono-thermal history

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992 Classical and Bayesian Inference of the Generalized Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Survival Data

Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

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A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 202