Search results for: global innovation network

Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: M. Riazat, H. Abdolvand, M. Baniassadi

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In this present work, 3D reconstruction of cathode of SOFC is developed with various volume fractions and porosity. Three Phase Boundary (TPB) of construction of such derived micro structures is calculated. The neural network is used to optimize the porosity and volume fraction of each phase to reach a structure with maximum TPB.

Keywords: fuel cell, solid oxide, TPB, 3D reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Anny Zambrano, German Gonzalez, Yair Quintero

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The continuum damage concept is used to study the interaction between hydraulic fractures and natural fractures, the objective is representing the path and relation among this two fractures types and predict its complex behavior without the need to pre-define their direction as occurs in other finite element applications, providing results more consistent with the physical behavior of the phenomenon. The approach uses finite element simulations through Abaqus software to model damage fracturing, the fracturing process by damage propagation in a rock. The modeling the phenomenon develops in two dimensional (2D) so that the fracture will be represented by a line and the crack front by a point. It considers nonlinear constitutive behavior, finite strain, time-dependent deformation, complex boundary conditions, strain hardening and softening, and strain based damage evolution in compression and tension. The complete governing equations are provided and the method is described in detail to permit readers to replicate all results. The model is compared to models that are published and available. Comparisons are focused in five interactions between natural fractures (NF) and hydraulic fractures: Fractured arrested at NF, crossing NF with or without offset, branching at intersecting NFs, branching at end of NF and NF dilation due to shear slippage. The most significant new finding is, that is not necessary to use pre-defined addresses propagation and stress condition can be evaluated as a dominant factor in the process. This is important because it can model in a more real way the generated complex hydraulic fractures, and be a valuable tool to predict potential problems and different geometries of the fracture network in the process of fracturing due to fluid injection.

Keywords: continuum damage, hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, complex fracture network, stiffness

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Dongming Feng, Fangyin Zhang, Liling Cao

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Horizontally curved steel-concrete composite box girders are extensively used in highway bridges. They consist of reinforced concrete deck on top of prefabricated steel box section beam which exhibits a high torsional rigidity to resist torsional effects induced by the curved structural geometry. This type of structural system is often constructed in two stages. The composite section will take the tension mainly by the steel box and, the compression by the concrete deck. The steel girders are delivered in large pre-fabricated U-shaped sections that are designed for ease of construction. They are then erected on site and overlaid by cast-in-place reinforced concrete deck. The functionality of the composite section is not achieved until the closed section is formed by fully cured concrete. Since this kind of composite section is built in two stages, the erection of the open steel box presents some challenges to contractors. When the reinforced concrete slab is cast-in-place, special care should be taken on bracings that can prevent the open U-shaped steel box from global and local buckling. In the case of multiple steel boxes, the design detailing should pay enough attention to the installation requirement of the bracings connecting adjacent steel boxes to prevent the global buckling. The slope in transverse direction and grade in longitudinal direction will result in some local deformation of the steel boxes that affect the connection of the bracings. During the design phase, it is common for engineers to model the curved composite box girder using one-dimensional beam elements. This is adequate to analyze the global behavior, however, it is unable to capture the local deformation which affects the installation of the field bracing connection. The presence of the local deformation may become a critical component to control the construction tolerance, and overlooking this deformation will produce inadequate structural details that eventually cause misalignment in field and erection failure. This paper will briefly describe the construction issues we encountered in real structures, investigate the difference between beam element modeling and shell/solid element modeling, and their impact on the different construction stages. P-delta effect due to the slope and curvature of the composite box girder is analyzed, and the secondary deformation is compared to the first-order response and evaluated for its impact on installation of lateral bracings. The paper will discuss the rational approach to prepare construction documents and recommendations are made on the communications between engineers, erectors, and fabricators to smooth out construction process.

Keywords: buckling, curved composite box girder, stage construction, structural detailing

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Authors: Frida C. Jaime Franco, C. Paulina Navarro Núñez, R. Jacob Sánchez Nájera

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The importance of developing multi-language abilities in our global society is noteworthy. However, the necessity, interest, and consciousness of the significance that the development of another language represents, apart from the mother tongue, is not always the same in all contexts as it is in multicultural communities, especially in rural higher education institutions immersed in small communities. Leading opportunities for digital interaction among learners from Mexico and abroad partners represents scaffolding towards, not only language skills development but also intercultural communicative competences (ICC). This study leads us to consider what should be the best approach to work while applying a program of ICC integrated into the practice of EFL. While analyzing the roots of the language, it is possible to obtain the main objective of learning another language, to communicate with a functional purpose, as well as attaching social practices to the learning process, giving a result of functionality and significance to the target language. Hence, the collateral impact that collaborative learning leads to, aims to contribute to a better global understanding as well as a means of self and other cultural awareness through intercultural communication. While communicating through the target language by online collaboration among students in platforms of long-distance communication, language is used as a tool of interaction to broaden students’ perspectives reaching a substantial improvement with the help of their differences. This process should consider the application of the target language in the inquiry of sociocultural information, expecting the learners to integrate communicative skills to handle cultural differentiation at the same time they apply the knowledge of their target language in a real scenario of communication, despite being through virtual resources.

Keywords: collaborative learning, communicative approach, culture, interaction, interculturalism, target language, virtual partnership

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Authors: Sema Kayapinar, Ismail Karaoglan, Turan Paksoy, Hadi Gokcen

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Green Supply Chain Management is gaining growing interest among researchers and supply chain management. The concept of Green Supply Chain Management is to integrate environmental thinking into the Supply Chain Management. It is the systematic concept emphasis on environmental problems such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, recycling end of life products, generation of solid and hazardous waste. This study is to present a green supply chain network model integrated Internet of Things applications. Internet of Things provides to get precise and accurate information of end-of-life product with sensors and systems devices. The forward direction consists of suppliers, plants, distributions centres and sales and collect centres while, the reverse flow includes the sales and collects centres, disassembled centre, recycling and disposal centre. The sales and collection centre sells the new products are transhipped from factory via distribution centre and also receive the end-of life product according their value level. We describe green logistics activities by presenting specific examples including “recycling of the returned products and “reduction of CO2 gas emissions”. The different transportation choices are illustrated between echelons according to their CO2 gas emissions. This problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model to solve the green supply chain problems which are emerged from the environmental awareness and responsibilities. This model is solved by using Gams package program. Numerical examples are suggested to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.

Keywords: green supply chain optimization, internet of things, greenhouse gas emission, recycling

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Authors: Perttu Heino

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Universities of applied sciences (UASs) were introduced as part of the Finnish higher education system in the early 1990’s. Research, development and innovation (RDI) were mentioned in the legislation on UASs from the very beginning, but very little attention was paid to it in the early years of UASs due to reasons that are easy to understand. Required changes in the organization of the UAS and its educational offering were a big challenge, and it took several years to get things in order. There were RDI projects already then, but their number was low and there was no systematical coordination or management of those activities. In this paper, the institutional transformation of UASs is discussed based on how Tampere University of Applied Sciences has transformed during the years from a traditional tertiary level school to a modern higher education institution with a strong RDI activity, characterized by lively university-industry interaction and tight integration to education.

Keywords: research, development, management, practices

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Authors: Jennifer A. Kowalkowski

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Production agriculture (farming) is a physically, emotionally, and cognitively stressful occupation, where workers have little control over the stressors that impact both their work and their lives. In an occupation already rife with hazards, these occupational-related stressors have been shown to increase farm workers’ risks for illness, injury, disability, and death associated with their work. Despite efforts to mitigate the negative health effects from occupational-related stress (ORS) and to promote health and well-being (HWB) among farmers in the US, marked improvements have not been attained. Social support accessed through social networks has been shown to buffer against the negative health effects from stress, yet no studies have directly examined these relationships among farmers. The purpose of this study was to use social network analysis to explore the social networks of farm owner-operators and the social supports available to them for mitigating the negative health effects of ORS. A convenience sample of 71 farm owner-operators from a Midwestern County in the US completed and returned a mailed survey (55.5% response rate) that solicited information about their social networks related to ORS. Farmers reported an average of 2.4 individuals in their personal networks and higher levels of comfort discussing ORS with female network members. Farmers also identified few connections (3.4% density) and indicated low comfort with members of affiliation networks specific to ORS. Findings from this study highlighted that farmers accessed different social networks and resources for their personal HWB than for issues related to occupational(farm-related) health and safety. In addition, farmers’ social networks for personal HWB were smaller, with different relational characteristics than reported in studies of farmers’ social networks related to occupational health and safety. Collectively, these findings suggest that farmers conceptualize personal HWB differently than farm health and safety. Therefore, the same research approaches and targets that guide occupational health and safety research may not be appropriate for personal HWB for farmers. Interventions and programming targeting ORS and HWB have largely been offered through the same platforms or mechanisms as occupational health and safety programs. This may be attributed to the significant overlap between the farm as a family business and place of residence, or that ORS stems from farm-related issues. However, these assumptions translated to health research of farmers and farm families from the occupational health and safety literature have not been directly studied or challenged. Thismay explain why past interventions have not been effective at improving health outcomes for farmers and farm families. A close examination of findings from this study raises important questions for researchers who study agricultural health. Findings from this study have significant implications for future research agendas focused on addressing ORS, HWB, and health disparities for farmersand farm families.

Keywords: agricultural health, occupational-related stress, social networks, well-being

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Authors: A. Dinelka Panagoda, Bathiya Bandara, Chamod Wijetunga, Chathura Malinda, Lakmal Rupasinghe, Chethana Liyanapathirana

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This research takes us forward with the concepts of Federated Learning and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to introduce an efficient malware detection technique and provide a mitigation mechanism to give birth to a resilient and automated healthcare sector network system by also adding the feature of extended privacy preservation. Due to the daily transformation of new malware attacks on hospital Integrated Clinical Environment (ICEs), the healthcare industry is at an undefinable peak of never knowing its continuity direction. The state of blindness by the array of indispensable opportunities that new medical device inventions and their connected coordination offer daily, a factor that should be focused driven is not yet entirely understood by most healthcare operators and patients. This solution has the involvement of four clients in the form of hospital networks to build up the federated learning experimentation architectural structure with different geographical participation to reach the most reasonable accuracy rate with privacy preservation. While the logistic regression with cross-entropy conveys the detection, SDN comes in handy in the second half of the research to stack up the initial development phases of the system with malware mitigation based on policy implementation. The overall evaluation sums up with a system that proves the accuracy with the added privacy. It is no longer needed to continue with traditional centralized systems that offer almost everything but not privacy.

Keywords: software-defined network, federated learning, privacy, integrated clinical environment, decentralized learning, malware detection, malware mitigation

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Authors: Abdulah Hamads Alatiah

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The green architecture represents the essence of the sustainability process and the fundamental rule in the desert areas' reconstruction seeking to maintain the environmental balance. This study is based on the analytical descriptive approach, to extract the objectives of green architecture in the desert areas, and reveal the most important principles that contribute to highlight its economic, social, and environmental importance, in addition to standing on the most important technical standards that can be relied upon to deal with its environmental problems. The green architecture aims: making use of the alternative energy, reducing the conventional energy consumption, addressing its negative effects, adapting to the climate, innovation in design, providing the individuals' welfare and rationalizing the use of the available resources to maintain its environmental sustainability.

Keywords: green architecture, the warm-dry climate, natural lighting, environmental quality, renewable energy, weather changes

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Authors: Kong Wing Man

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The purpose of this paper is to review the waste generation and management in different parts of the world. It is undeniable that waste generation and management has become an alarming environmental issue. Solid waste generation links inextricably to the degree of industrialization and economic development. Urbanization increases with the economic wealth of the countries. As the income of people and standard of living enhances, so does their consumption of goods and services, leading to a corresponding increase in waste generation. Based on the latest statistics from What A Waste Report published by World Bank (2012), it is estimated that the current global Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation levels are about 1.3 billion tonnes per year (1.2 kg per capita per day). By 2050, it is projected that the waste generation will be doubled. Although many waste collection practices have been implemented in various countries, the amount of waste generation keeps increasing. An integrated solid waste management is needed in order to reduce the continuous significant increase in waste generation rates. Although many countries have introduced and implemented the 3Rs strategy and landfill, however, these are only the ways to diverse waste, but cannot reduce the volume. Instead, the advanced thermal treatment technology, incineration, can reduce up to 90% volume of disposed waste prior to dispose at landfills is discussed. Sweden and Tokyo were chosen as case studies, which provide an overview of the municipal solid waste management system. With the condition of escalating amount of wastes generated, it is crucial to build incinerators to relief pressing needs of landfill. Two solutions are proposed to minimize waste generation, including one incineration in one city and several small incinerators in different cities. While taking into consideration of a sustainable model and the perspectives of all stakeholders, building several incinerators at different cities and different sizes would be the best option to reduce waste. Overall, the solution to the global solid waste management should be a holistic approach with the involvement of both government and citizens.

Keywords: Incineration, Municipal Solid Waste, Thermal Treatment, Waste generation

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Authors: Rafat Rob, Khaled Alotaibi, Dana Nour, Abdullah Albadrani, Abdulmohsen Mulhim

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Power systems digitization solutions provides a comprehensive smart, cohesive, interconnected network, extensive connectivity between digital assets, physical power plants, and resources to form digital economies. However, digitization has exposed the classical air gapped power plants to the rapid spread of cyber threats and attacks in the process delaying and forcing many organizations to rethink their cyber security policies and standards before they can augment their operation the new advanced digital devices. Cyber Security requirements for power systems (and industry control systems therein) demand a new approach, unique methodology, and design process that is completely different to Cyber Security measures designed for the IT systems. In practice, Cyber Security strategy, as applied to power systems, tends to be closely aligned to those measures applied for IT system purposes. The differentiator for Cyber Security in terms of power systems are the physical assets and applications used, alongside the ever-growing rate of expansion within the industry controls sector (in comparison to the relatively saturated growth observed for corporate IT systems). These factors increase the magnitude of the cyber security risk within such systems. The introduction of smart devices and sensors along the grid initiate vulnerable entry points to the systems. Every installed Smart Meter is a target; the way these devices communicate with each other may instigate a Denial of Service (DoS) and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. Attacking one sensor or meter has the potential to propagate itself throughout the power grid reaching the IT network, where it may manifest itself as a malware infiltration.

Keywords: supply chain, cybersecurity, maturity model, risk, smart grid

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Authors: Andrea Miconi

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The research will focus on the results of the Tempus European Project eMEDia dedicated to Cross-Media Journalism. The project is founded by the European Commission as it involves four European partners - IULM University, Tampere University, University of Barcelona, and the Mediterranean network Unimed - and three Tunisian Universities – IPSI La Manouba, Sfax and Sousse – along with the Tunisian Ministry for Higher Education and the National Syndicate of Journalists. The focus on Tunisian condition is basically due to the role played by digital activists in its recent history. The research is dedicated to the relationship between political participation, news-making practices and the spread of social media, as it is affecting Tunisian society. As we know, Tunisia during the Arab Spring had been widely considered as a laboratory for the analysis the use of new technologies for political participation. Nonetheless, the literature about the Arab Spring actually fell short in explaining the genesis of the phenomenon, on the one hand by isolating technologies as a casual factor in the spread of demonstrations, and on the other by analyzing North-African condition through a biased perspective. Nowadays, it is interesting to focus on the consolidation of the information environment three years after the uprisings. And what is relevant, only a close, in-depth analysis of Tunisian society is able to provide an explanation of its history, and namely of the part of digital media in the overall evolution of political system. That is why the research is based on different methodologies: desk stage, interviews, and in-depth analysis of communication practices. Networked journalism is the condition determined by the technological innovation on news-making activities: a condition upon which professional journalist can no longer be considered the only player in the information arena, and a new skill must be developed. Along with democratization, nonetheless, the so-called citizen journalism is also likely to produce some ambiguous effects, such as the lack of professional standards and the spread of information cascades, which may prove to be particularly dangerous in an evolving media market as the Tunisian one. This is why, according to the project, a new profile must be defined, which is able to manage this new condition, and which can be hardly reduced to the parameters of traditional journalistic work. Rather than simply using new devices for news visualization, communication professionals must also be able to dialogue with all new players and to accept the decentralized nature of digital environments. This networked nature of news-making seemed to emerge during the Tunisian revolution, when bloggers, journalists, and activists used to retweet each other. Nonetheless, this intensification of communication exchange was inspired by the political climax of the uprising, while all media, by definition, are also supposed to bring some effects on people’s state of mind, culture and daily life routines. That is why it is worth analyzing the consolidation of these practices in a normal, post-revolutionary situation.

Keywords: cross-media, education, Mediterranean, networked journalism, social media, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Nana Gorgiladze, Tamar Gaprindashvili, Mikheil Shavdia, Zurab Pagava

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Introduction/Purpose Chemotherapy is a common treatment for breast cancer, but it can also cause damage to the heart and blood vessels. This damage, known as cancer therapy-related cardiovascular toxicity (CTR-CVT), can increase the risk of heart failure and death in breast cancer patients. The left ventricle is often affected by CTR-CVT, but the right ventricle (RV) may also be vulnerable to CTR-CVT and may show signs of dysfunction before the left ventricle. The study aims to investigate how the RV function changes during chemotherapy for breast cancer by using conventional echocardiographic and global longitudinal strain (GLS) techniques. By measuring the GLS strain of the RV, researchers tend to detect early signs of CTR-CVT and improve the management of breast cancer patients. Methods The study was conducted on 28 women with low cardiovascular risk who received anthracycline chemotherapy for breast cancer. Conventional 2D echocardiography (LVEF, RVS’, TAPSE) and speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) measurements of the left and right ventricles (LVGLS, RVGLS) were used to assess cardiac function before and after chemotherapy. All patients had normal LVEF at the beginning of the study. Cardiotoxicity was defined as a new LVEF reduction of 10 percentage points to an LVEF of 40-49% and/or a new decline in GLS of 15% from baseline, as proposed by the most recent cardio-oncology guideline. ResultsThe research found that the LVGLS decreased from -21.2%2.1% to -18.6%2.6% (t-test = -4.116; df = 54, p=0.001). The change in value LV-GLS was 2.6%3.0%. The mean percentage change of the LVGLS was 11,6%13,3%; p=0.001. Similarly, the right ventricular global longitudinal strain (RVGLS) decreased from -25.2%2.9% to -21.4%4.4% (t-test = -3.82; df = 54, p=0.001). The RV-GLS value of change was 3.8%3.6%. Likewise, the percentage decrease of the RVGLS was 15,0%14,3%, p=0.001.However, the measurements of the right ventricular systolic function (RVS) and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) were insignificant, and the left ventricular ejection fraction ( LVEF) remained unchanged.

Keywords: cardiotoxicity, chemotherapy, GLS, right ventricle

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Authors: Nibal Al-Batsh, Issam A. Al-Khatib, Subha Ghannam

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Yatta is a town in the Governorate of Hebron, located 9 km south of Hebron City in the West Bank. The town houses over 100,000 people, 49% of which are females; a population that doubles every 15 years. Yatta has been connected to a water network since 1974 serving nearly 85% of the households. The water network is old and inadequate to meet the needs of the population. The water supply made available to the area is also very limited, estimated to be around 20 l/c/d. Residents are thus forced to rely on water vendors which supply water with a lower quality compared to municipal water while being 400% more expensive. As a cheaper and more reliable alternative, rainwater harvesting is a common practice in the area, with the majority of the households owning at least one cistern. Rainwater harvesting is of great socioeconomic importance in areas where water sources are scarce or polluted. In this research, the quality of harvested rainwater used for drinking and domestic purposes in the Yatta area was assessed throughout a year. A total of 100 samples, were collected from (cisterns) with an average capacity of 69 m3, which are adjacent to cement-roof catchment areas with an average area of 145 m2. Samples were analyzed for a number of parameters including: pH, alkalinity, hardness, turbidity, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), NO3, NH4, chloride and salinity. Biological and microbiological contents such as Total Coliforms (TCC) and Fecal Coliforms (FC) bacteria were also tested. Results showed that most of the rainwater samples were within WHO and EPA guidelines set for chemical parameters. The research also addressed the impact of different socioeconomic attributes on rainwater harvesting through questionnaire that was pre-tested before the actual statically sample is collected.

Keywords: rainwater, harvesting, water quality, socio-economic aspects

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Authors: Somayeh Bahrami, Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firoozabadi

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Environmental governance is an interdisciplinary concept in political ecology and environmental policy focusing on the necessity of embedding the environmental issues in all levels of decision-making and act of states. Similar to sustainable development the concept of environmental governance believes that economic and political life of societies and countries need to be considered as a subset of the environment. This concept has been accepted by North Countries, those that have done the most irreparable environmental damage since the Industrial Revolution. Although North Countries are more responsible for damage to the environment, considering the global fluidity logic of environmental challenges, such an impression doesn’t cause developing countries to disavow responsibility for regional and international cooperation to protect the environment. Establishing an environmental governance at all levels of local, national, regional and global is one of the most significant ways to improve sustainable development. Given to the various political and economic difficulties developing countries including the Middle East face, building environmental governance in these countries is difficult but feasible, as these difficulties have not impeded their mutual partnership for confronting joint environmental issues. However, the environmental issues wouldn’t be solved only by mutual partnership but by establishing environmental governance, establishing regional environmental institutions (an introduction to building Regional Environmental Governance) and delegation of some environmental authorities to the mentioned institutions. The research is aimed at examining necessities, opportunities, and barriers to establishing Regional Environmental Governance in the Middle East. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question of whether establishing Regional Environmental Governance is possible in the Middle East and if so then why. This study used descriptive-analytical methods and the inferential methodology has been used to reach the goals. Data has been collected by using library and internet sources as well as news sources on the basis of objective-historical data.

Keywords: environmental democracy (ED), environmental governance (EG), middle east (ME), regional environmental governance (REG)

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Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Thawit Janbanklong

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The purposes of this study were to design and find users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism in the Northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists with touristic information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The samples of this study were five experts and users: 30 "white collars" in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for administrators to effectively manage the database. The application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily positive.

Keywords: decision Support System, ASP.NET, MySQL, white collars

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

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Authors: Nur Bella Octoria Bella, Ayomi Dita Rarasati

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DKI Jakarta is Indonesia's capital city with the 10th highest congestion rate in the world based on the 2019 traffic index. Other than that based on World Air Quality Report in 2019 showed DKI Jakarta's air pollutant concentrate 49.4 µg and the 5th highest air pollutant in the world. In the urban city nowadays, the mobility rate is high enough and the efficiency for sustainability assessment in transport infrastructure development is needed. This efficiency is the important key for sustainable infrastructure development. DKI Jakarta is nowadays in the process of constructing the railway infrastructure to support the transportation system. The problems appearing are the railway infrastructure networks and the service in DKI Jakarta already planned based on sustainability factors or not. Therefore, the aim of this research is to make the evaluation of railways infrastructure networks performance and services in DKI Jakarta regards on the railway sustainability key factors. Further, this evaluation will be used to make the railway sustainability assessment framework and to offer some of the alternative solutions to improve railway transportation sustainability in DKI Jakarta. Firstly a very detailed literature review of papers that have focused on railway sustainability factors and their improvements of railway sustainability, published in the scientific journal in the period 2011 until 2021. Regarding the sustainability factors from the literature review, further, it is used to assess the current condition of railway infrastructure in DKI Jakarta. The evaluation will be using a Likert rate questionnaire and directed to the transportation railway expert and the passenger. Furthermore, the mapping and evaluation rate based on the sustainability factors will be compared to the effect factors using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). This research offers the network's performance and service rate impact on the sustainability aspect and the passenger willingness for using the rail public transportation in DKI Jakarta.

Keywords: transportation sustainability, railway transportation, sustainability, DKI Jakarta

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Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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Authors: Magdy Roman, Mostafa Shoeib, Mostafa Rostom

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Global vision, whether provided by overhead fixed cameras, on-board aerial vehicle cameras, or satellite images can always provide detailed information on the environment around mobile robots. In this paper, an intelligent vision-based method of path planning and obstacle avoidance for mobile robots is presented. The method integrates visual perception with a new proposed field-based path-planning method to overcome common path-planning problems such as local minima, unreachable destination and unnecessary lengthy paths around obstacles. The method proposes an exponential angle deviation field around each obstacle that affects the orientation of a close robot. As the robot directs toward, the goal point obstacles are classified into right and left groups, and a deviation angle is exponentially added or subtracted to the orientation of the robot. Exponential field parameters are chosen based on Lyapunov stability criterion to guarantee robot convergence to the destination. The proposed method uses obstacles' shape and location, extracted from global vision system, through a collision prediction mechanism to decide whether to activate or deactivate obstacles field. In addition, a search mechanism is developed in case of robot or goal point is trapped among obstacles to find suitable exit or entrance. The proposed algorithm is validated both in simulation and through experiments. The algorithm shows effectiveness in obstacles' avoidance and destination convergence, overcoming common path planning problems found in classical methods.

Keywords: path planning, collision avoidance, convergence, computer vision, mobile robots

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Authors: Igone Guerra, Xabier Barandiaran

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The deep crisis (economic, social and cultural) in which Europe and Gipuzkoa, in the Basque Country (Spain), have been immersed in since 2008 forces governments to face a necessary transformation. These challenges demand different solutions and answers to meet the needs of the citizens. Adapting to continuous and sometimes abrupt changes in the social and political landscape requires an undeniable will to reinvent the way in which governments practice politics. This reinvention of government should help us build different organizations that, first, develop challenging public services, second, respond effectively to the needs of the citizens, and third, manage scarce resources, ultimately offering a contemporary concept of public value. In this context, the Etorkizuna Eraikiz initiative was designed to face the future challenges of the territory in a collaborative way. The aim of the initiative is to promote an alternative form of governance to generate common good and greater public value. In Etorkizuna Eraikiz democratic values, such as collaboration, participation, and accountability are prominent. This government approach is based on several features such as the creation of relational spaces to design and deliberate about the public politics or the promotion of a team-working approach, breaking down the silos between and within organizations, as an exercise in defining a shared vision regarding the Future of the Territory. A future in which the citizens are becoming actors in the problem-solving process and in the construction of a culture of participation and collective learning. In this paper, the Etorkizuna Eraikiz initiative will be presented (vision and methodology) as a model of a local approach to public policy innovation resulting in a way of governance that is more open and collaborative. Based on this case study, this paper explores the way in which collaborative governance leads to better decisions, better leadership, and better citizenry. Finally, the paper also describes some preliminary findings of this local approach, such as the level of knowledge of the citizenry about the projects promoted within Etorkizuna Eraikiz as well as the link between the challenges of the territory, as identified by the citizenry, and the political agenda promoted by the provincial government. Regarding the former, the Survey on the socio-political situation of Gipuzkoa showed that 27.9% of the respondents confirmed that they knew about the projects promoted within the initiative and gave it a mark of 5.71. In connection with the latter, over the last three years, 65 millions of euros have been allocated for a total of 73 projects that have covered socio-economic and political challenges such as aging, climate change, mobility, participation in democratic life, and so on. This governance approach of Etorkizuna Eraikiz has allowed the local government to match the needs of citizens to the political agenda fostering in this way a shared vision about the public value.

Keywords: collaborative governance, citizen participation, public good, social listening, public innovation

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Authors: S. Łęgowik-Świącik

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This article is a contribution to the research into the determinants of value creation via digital platforms in variable operating conditions. The dynamics of the market environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made enterprises built on digital platforms financially successful. While many classic companies are struggling with the uncertainty of conducting a business and difficulties in the process of value creation, digital platforms create value by modifying the existing business model to meet the changing needs of customers. Therefore, the objective of this publication is to understand and explain the relationship between value creation and the conversion of the business model built on digital platforms under pandemic conditions. The considerations relating to the conceptual framework and determining the research objective allowed for adopting the hypothesis, assuming that the processes of value creation are evolving, and the measurement of these processes allows for the protection of value created and enables its growth in changing circumstances. The research methods, such as critical literature analysis and case study, were applied to accomplish the objective pursued and verify the hypothesis formulated. The empirical research was carried out based on the data from enterprises listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange: Amazon, Alibaba, and Facebook. The research period was the years 2018-2021. The surveyed enterprises were chosen based on the targeted selection. The problem discussed is important and current since the lack of in-depth theoretical research results in few attempts to identify the determinants of value creation via digital platforms. The above arguments led to an attempt at theoretical analysis and empirical research to fill in the gap perceived by deepening the understanding of the process of value creation through network effects via digital platforms under pandemic conditions.

Keywords: business model, digital platforms, enterprise management, pandemic conditions, value creation process

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Authors: Luis C. Parra

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The significant wave height prediction is an issue of great interest in the field of coastal activities because of the non-linear behavior of the wave height and its complexity of prediction. This study aims to present a machine learning model to forecast the significant wave height of the oceanographic wave measuring buoys anchored at Mooloolaba of the Queensland Government Data. Modeling was performed by a multilayer perceptron neural network-genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), considering Relu(x) as the activation function of the MLPNN. The GA is in charge of optimized the MLPNN hyperparameters (learning rate, hidden layers, neurons, and activation functions) and wrapper feature selection for the window width size. Results are assessed using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The GAMLPNN algorithm was performed with a population size of thirty individuals for eight generations for the prediction optimization of 5 steps forward, obtaining a performance evaluation of 0.00104 MSE, 0.03222 RMSE, 0.02338 MAE, and 0.71163% of MAPE. The results of the analysis suggest that the MLPNNGA model is effective in predicting significant wave height in a one-step forecast with distant time windows, presenting 0.00014 MSE, 0.01180 RMSE, 0.00912 MAE, and 0.52500% of MAPE with 0.99940 of correlation factor. The GA-MLP algorithm was compared with the ARIMA forecasting model, presenting better performance criteria in all performance criteria, validating the potential of this algorithm.

Keywords: significant wave height, machine learning optimization, multilayer perceptron neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Lican Guzmán, José Manuel Lattus, Mariana Cervetto, Mauricio Calderón

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Today the estimation of effects produced by climate change in high Andean wetland environments is confronted by big challenges. This study provides a way to an analysis by remote sensing how some Ambiental aspects have evolved on the Maricunga salt flat in the last 30 years, divided into the summer and winter seasons, and if global warming is conditioning these changes. The first step to achieve this goal was the recompilation of geological, hydrological, and morphometric antecedents to ensure an adequate contextualization of its environmental parameters. After this, software processing and analysis of Landsat 5,7 and 8 satellite imagery was required to get the vegetation, water, surface temperature, and soil moisture indexes (NDVI, NDWI, LST, and SMI) in order to see how their spatial-temporal conditions have evolved in the area of study during recent decades. Results show a tendency of regular increase in surface temperature and disponibility of water during both seasons but with slight drought periods during summer. Soil moisture factor behaves as a constant during the dry season and with a tendency to increase during wintertime. Vegetation analysis shows an areal and quality increase of its surface sustained through time that is consistent with the increase of water supply and temperature in the basin mentioned before. Roughly, the effects of climate change can be described as positive for the Maricunga salt flat; however, the lack of exact correlation in dates of the imagery available to remote sensing analysis could be a factor for misleading in the interpretation of results.

Keywords: global warming, geology, SIG, Atacama Desert, Salar de Maricunga, environmental geology, NDVI, SMI, LST, NDWI, Landsat

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Authors: Eloise Thomson

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The COVID-19 global pandemic challenged our normative conceptualization of teaching across all age levels, requiring the transition to remote instruction, in some instances, literally overnight. Included in the rapidly changing education environment was the delivery of early childhood education. In Victoria, Australia, the capital city, Melbourne, became known as the most locked down city in the world. This presentation examines the ways educators used social media to collaborate with families before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the lockdown phase through the use of a Third Space conceptual framework and case study methodology. As a first step, the paper examines how social media may offer new opportunities for collaborative practice between educators and families. Second, the data is outlined and discussed with respect to collaborative practice and quality. Finally, a postscript then allows for insight into how educators’ practice of using social media to collaborate with families has been impacted by the COVID-19 global pandemic. Finally, the implications of the ways in which educators are using social media to collaborate with families are discussed. The use of social media in early-childhood education has the potential to provide a valuable platform for educators to connect with families and students. However, the use of social media by educators uncovered a dialogue of ‘quality’ and appeared to be dominated by evidence around compliance and attaining quality in a very specific, and perhaps narrow, way. The findings suggest a culture of compliance that is dominated by outcomes, standards and assessments and that this has changed the dynamics by which educators engage with families. Furthermore, findings highlighted the disparity between educators' and families' understanding of the intent of the collaborations themselves. This research was significant as it exposed the ways in which educators are engaging with social media, resulting in a discussion on the intent of collaborations, the questioning of imposed quality, and the notion that quality is measurable and exists in only one form.

Keywords: collaboration, compliance, early childhood, third space, pedagogy of caring, social media

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Authors: Paula Costa, Ana Picado, Filomena Pinto, Justina Catarino

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Environmental impact associated with large scale shale gas development is of major concern to the public, policy makers and other stakeholders. To assess this impact on the atmosphere, it is important to monitoring ambient air quality prior to and during all shale gas operation stages. Baseline observations can provide a standard of the pre-shale gas development state of the environment. The lack of baseline concentrations was identified as an important knowledge gap to assess the impact of emissions to the air due to shale gas operations. In fact baseline monitoring of air quality are missing in several regions, where there is a strong possibility of future shale gas exploration. This makes it difficult to properly identify, quantify and characterize environmental impacts that may be associated with shale gas development. The implementation of a baseline air monitoring program is imperative to be able to assess the total emissions related with shale gas operations. In fact, any monitoring programme should be designed to provide indicative information on background levels. A baseline air monitoring program should identify and characterize targeted air pollutants, most frequently described from monitoring and emission measurements, as well as those expected from hydraulic fracturing activities, and establish ambient air conditions prior to start-up of potential emission sources from shale gas operations. This program has to be planned for at least one year accounting for ambient variations. In the literature, in addition to GHG emissions of CH4, CO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx), fugitive emissions from shale gas production can release volatile organic compounds (VOCs), aldehydes (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). The VOCs include a.o., benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, hexanes, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, styrene. The concentrations of six air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), and lead) whose regional ambient air levels are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are often discussed. However, the main concern in the emissions to air associated to shale gas operations, seems to be the leakage of methane. Methane is identified as a compound of major concern due to its strong global warming potential. The identification of methane leakage from shale gas activities is complex due to the existence of several other CH4 sources (e.g. landfill, agricultural activity or gas pipeline/compressor station). An integrated monitoring study of methane emissions may be a suitable mean of distinguishing the contribution of different sources of methane to ambient levels. All data analysis needs to be carefully interpreted taking, also, into account the meteorological conditions of the site. This may require the implementation of a more intensive monitoring programme. So, it is essential the development of a low-cost sampling strategy, suitable for establishing pre-operations baseline data as well as an integrated monitoring program to assess the emissions from shale gas operation sites. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640715.

Keywords: air emissions, baseline, green house gases, shale gas

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Authors: Stephen M. Magu

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The 9/11 and Christmas bombing attacks in the United States are mostly associated with the inability of intelligence agencies to connect dots based on intelligence that was already available. The 1998, 2002, 2013 and several 2014 terrorist attacks in Kenya, on the other hand, are probably driven by a completely different dynamic: the invisible hand of corruption. The World Bank and Transparency International annually compute the Worldwide Governance Indicators and the Corruption Perception Index respectively. What perhaps is not adequately captured in the corruption metrics is the impact of corruption on terrorism. The World Bank data includes variables such as the control of corruption, (estimates of) government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. TI's CPI does not include measures related to terrorism, but it is plausible that there is an expectation of some terrorism impact arising from corruption. This paper, by examining the incidence, frequency and total number of terrorist attacks that have occurred especially since 1990, and further examining the specific cases of Kenya and Nigeria, argues that in addition to having major effects on governance, corruption has an even more frightening impact: that of facilitating and/or violating security mechanisms to the extent that foreign nationals can easily obtain identification that enables them to perpetuate major events, targeting powerful countries' interests in countries with weak corruption-fighting mechanisms. The paper aims to model interactions that demonstrate the cost/benefit analysis and agents' rational calculations as being non-rational calculations, given the ultimate impact. It argues that eradication of corruption is not just a matter of a better business environment, but that it is implicit in national security, and that for anti-corruption crusaders, this is an argument more potent than the economic cost / cost of doing business argument.

Keywords: corruption, global south, identification, passports, terrorism

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Authors: Andre C Jordaan

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The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.

Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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