Search results for: spares allocation

Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Sennanda Musa, Ahmed Mutunzi Kitunzi, Gerald Kasigwa, Ismail Kintu

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This paper is an analysis of the empirical relationship between project financing by Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the poverty trends in the context of countries benefiting from IsDB. Specifically, the study seeks to find out whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the project financing dollar amounts by IsDB (PF) and the GNI Per Capita, PPP of 57 countries for the years 2002 to 2021. The research is a longitudinal, desk-top triangulation of correlation, regression, hypothesis-testing employing the linear dynamic panel data GMM model as an estimator of the empirical relationships between the key variables of the study. The study results show that there is a significant positive relationship between the PF dollar amounts from the IsDB and the GNI Per Capita, PPP in these 57 countries. Therefore, countries that receive higher PF dollar amounts from the IsDB, generally have more GNI Per Capita, PPP (less poverty) than their counterparts. It is, therefore, recommendable for countries to formulate policies that facilitate Islamically financed projects to mitigate poverty. This paper develops policy discussions regarding allocation of political attention to the policy topics on poverty mitigation, and their relation to financing projects Islamically, thus generate information on policy choices regarding the Islamic financing alternative.

Keywords: gross-national-income, IsDB-project-financing, public policy, poverty

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. A polling place is a dedicated facility where voters cast their ballots in elections using different devices. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Sahara Piang Brahim

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This paper looks at the current state of water governance in the Philippines. It is mainly descriptive and relies on an analysis of secondary data gathered during the author’s fieldwork as well as those found in available scholarly literature, legal and government policy documents, reports and publicly available information on the official websites of government agencies and departments. This paper finds that despite the Philippines having relatively abundant water resources due to its topographical characteristics, it is facing a number of water-related problems, including the availability of water supply in light of growing water demand, increasing population and urbanization as well as climate change. Another key finding is that the sheer number of agencies, which have overlapping legal mandates and functions in relation to water governance and management, make coordination, planning and data collection difficult especially since they are neither vertically nor horizontally integrated. These findings have obvious implications for water policy and governance in the country. This study also finds that 'predict and control' characterizes the government’s approach to water resources management and allocation. This paper argues that taking such an approach and the existing institutional context into account is quite relevant not only in terms of making sense of how decision-making and policymaking take place but also when contemplating the kinds of alternative governance arrangements that could address water-related issues and challenges and that might work 'best' in the Philippines.

Keywords: Philippines, water governance, water issues, water policy

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Florian Wohlfeil, Orestis Terzidis, Louisa Hellmann

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Radical technological innovations enable companies to reach strong market positions and are thus desirable. On the other hand, the innovation process is related to significant costs and risks. Hence, the knowledge of the factors that influence success is crucial for technology driven companies. In a previous study, we have developed a conceptual framework of 25 Critical Success Factors for radical technological innovations and mapped them to four main categories: Technology, Organization, Market, and Process. We refer to it as the Technology-Organization-Market-Process (TOMP) framework. Taking the TOMP framework as a reference model, we conducted a structured and focused literature review of eleven standard books on the topic of radical technological innovation. With this approach, we aim to evaluate, expand, and clarify the set of Critical Success Factors detailed in the TOMP framework. Overall, the set of factors and their allocation to the main categories of the TOMP framework could be confirmed. However, the factor organizational home is not emphasized and discussed in most of the reviewed literature. On the other hand, an additional factor that has not been part of the TOMP framework is described to be important – strategy fit. Furthermore, the factors strategic alliances and platform strategy appear in the literature but in a different context compared to the reference model.

Keywords: Critical Success Factors, radical technological innovation, TOMP framework, innovation process

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Authors: Amir AlAmeeri, Mohamed Ibrahim

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Various data points are constantly being measured in the production system, and due to the nature of the wells, these data points, such as pressure, temperature, water cut, etc.., fluctuations are constant, which requires high frequency monitoring and collection. It is a very difficult task to analyze these parameters manually using spreadsheets and email. An automated system greatly enhances efficiency, reduce errors, the need for constant emails which take up disk space, and frees up time for the operator to perform other critical tasks. Various production data is being recorded in an oil field, and this huge volume of data can be seen as irrelevant to some, especially when viewed on its own with no context. In order to fully utilize all this information, it needs to be properly collected, verified and stored in one common place and analyzed for surveillance and monitoring purposes. This paper describes how data is recorded by different parties and departments in the field, and verified numerous times as it is being loaded into a repository. Once it is loaded, a final check is done before being entered into a production monitoring system. Once all this is collected, various calculations are performed to report allocated production. Calculated production data is used to report field production automatically. It is also used to monitor well and surface facility performance. Engineers can use this for their studies and analyses to ensure field is performing as it should be, predict and forecast production, and monitor any changes in wells that could affect field performance.

Keywords: automation, oil production, Cheleken, exploration and production (E&P), Caspian Sea, allocation, forecast

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Authors: Ruan Yi-Chen, Li Wang-Ming, Fang Yuan

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With the rapid growth of urbanization in China in recent years, public services are in short supply because of expanding population and limitation of financial support, which makes delicate configuration of public service facilities to become a trend in urban planning. Besides, the facility configuration standard implemented in China is equal to the whole the urban area without considering internal differences in it. Therefore, this article focuses on population Spatial disparities analysis in order to optimize facility configuration in communities of main city district. The used data, including population of 93 communities during 2010 to 2015, comes from GongShu district, Hangzhou city, PRC. Through the analysis of population data, especially the age structure of those communities, the communities finally divided into 3 types. Obviously, urban public service facilities allocation situation directly affect the quality of residents common lives, which turns out that deferent kinds of communities with deferent groups of citizens will have divergences in facility demanding. So in the end of the article, strategies of facility configuration will be proposed based on the population analysis in order to optimize the quantity and location of facilities with delicacy.

Keywords: delicacy, facility configuration, population spatial disparities, urban area

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

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As for any nuclear power plant, human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents. Thus, for accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Among lots factors, stress has been reported to have significant influence on human performance. Stress level of a person may fluctuate over time. To handle the possibility over time, robust stress management program is required, especially in nuclear power plants. Therefore, to overcome the possibility of human errors, this study aimed to develop a stress management program as a part of Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) Program for the workers in nuclear power plants. The meaning of FFD might be somewhat different by research objectives, appropriate definition of FFD was accomplished in this study with special reference to human error prevention, and diverse stress factors were elicited for management of human error susceptibility. In addition, with consideration of conventional FFD management programs, appropriate tests and interventions were introduced over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, job rotation, and disemployment as well as Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP). The results showed that most tools mainly concentrated their weights on common organizational factors such as Demands, Supports, and Relationships in sequence, which were referred as major stress factors.

Keywords: human error, accident prevention, work performance, stress, fatigue

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Authors: Verónica Arredondo, Miguel Martínez-Panero, Teresa Peña, Victoriano Ramírez

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The Mexican Chamber of Deputies is composed of 500 representatives: 300 of them elected by relative majority and another 200 ones elected through proportional representation in five electoral clusters (constituencies) with 40 representatives each. In this mixed-member electoral system, the seats distribution of proportional representation is not independent of the election by relative majority, as it attempts to correct representation imbalances produced in single-member districts. This two-fold structure has been maintained in the successive electoral reforms carried out along the last three decades (eight from 1986 to 2014). In all of them, the election process of 200 seats becomes complex: Formulas in the Law are difficult to understand and to be interpreted. This paper analyzes the Mexican electoral system after the electoral reform of 2014, which was applied for the first time in 2015. The research focuses on contradictions and issues of applicability, in particular situations where seats allocation is affected by ambiguity in the law and where asymmetrical treatment of political parties arises. Due to these facts, a proposal of electoral reform will be presented. It is intended to be simpler, clearer, and more enduring than the current system. Furthermore, this model is more suitable for producing electoral outcomes free of contradictions and paradoxes. This approach would allow a fair treatment of political parties and as a result an improved opportunity to exercise democracy.

Keywords: electoral mathematics, electoral reform, Mexican electoral system, political asymmetry, proportional representation

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Authors: A. Jarrou, A. Iranzo, C. Nana

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The rapid development of the onshore/offshore wind industry and the continuous, strong, and long-term support from governments have made it possible to create factories specializing in the manufacture of the different parts of wind turbines, but in the literature, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) analyzes consider the wind turbine as a whole and do not allow the allocation of impacts to the different components of the wind turbine. Here we propose to treat each part of the wind turbine as a system in its own right. This is more in line with the current production system. Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of two technological scenarios of wind turbine blades composition for an optimized wind turbine design using the impact 2002+ method and using 15 environmental impact indicators. This article aims to assess the environmental impacts associated with 1 kg of wind turbine blades. In order to carry out a realistic and precise study, the different stages of the life cycle of a wind turbine installation are included in the study (manufacture, installation, use, maintenance, dismantling, and waste treatment). The Impact 2002+ method used makes it possible to assess 15 impact indicators (human toxicity, terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicity, climate change, land use, etc.). Finally, a sensitivity study is carried out to analyze the different types of uncertainties in the data collected.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, wind turbine, turbine blade, environmental impact

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Authors: Glenda Marie D. Balitaan

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The branch of business management that deals with inventory planning and control is known as inventory management. It comprises keeping track of supply levels and forecasting demand, as well as scheduling when and how to plan. Keeping excess inventory results in a loss of money, takes up physical space, and raises the risk of damage, spoilage, and loss. On the other hand, too little inventory frequently causes operations to be disrupted and raises the possibility of low customer satisfaction, both of which can be detrimental to a company's reputation. The United Victorious Feed mill Corporation's present inventory management practices were assessed in terms of inventory level, warehouse allocation, ordering frequency, shelf life, and production requirement. To help the company achieve their optimal level of inventory, a mathematical model was created using Integer Linear Programming. Due to the season, the goal function was to reduce the cost of purchasing US Soya and Yellow Corn. Warehouse space, annual production requirements, and shelf life were all considered. To ensure that the user only uses one application to record all relevant information, like production output and delivery, the researcher built a Visual Basic system. Additionally, the technology allows management to change the model's parameters.

Keywords: inventory management, integer linear programming, inventory management system, feed mill

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Authors: Jagoda Przybysz

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive description of the immigrants in Poland, especially situation at the labour market. The paper will provide descriptive information on the composition of immigrants in Poland, and how this has changed over time, their socio-economic characteristics, their industry allocation and their labour market outcomes. Then we will investigate various labour market performance indicators (labour force participation, employment, wages and self-employment) for immigrants of different origins based on reached statistics. Individual interviews with immigrants will indicate areas of problems of living in Poland, mostly on labour market. The article shows that immigrants from some ethnic minority groups are more active in selected sectors of labour market. The empirical basis for the work related to the situation on the labor market of foreigners who came to the Poland and live in Lodz. The studies assumed that foreigners work in Poland and operate in different ways being integrated / excluded in varying degrees. Theoretical framework for analysis are: concepts of inclusion and exclusion, the concept of a dual labour market and the concept of social anchors. Completed in the 2014-2016, a pilot study (The forms of individual interviews) with 32 foreigners arrived in the last decade to Lodz. Preliminary studies have enabled the formulation of research issues and have set the future direction of research revealing to the personal experiences of respondents, a group of factors hindering integration and exclusion areas.

Keywords: foreigners, immigrants, labour market, migration, Poland

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Authors: Kyonghoon Kim, Wonyoung Park, Taeil Park

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In 1994, Korea experienced a national tragedy of Seongsu Bridge collapse. The accident was severe enough to alert governmental officers to the problem of existing management policy for national infrastructures. As a result, government legislated the ‘Guidelines for the safety inspection and test of infrastructure’ which have been utilized as the primary tool to make decision for the maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure for last twenty years. Although it is clear that the guideline established a basics how to evaluate and manage the condition of infrastructures in systematic manner, it is equally clear that the guideline needs improvements in order to obtain reasonable investment decisions for budget allocation. Because its inspection and evaluation procedures mainly focused on the structural condition of infrastructures, it was hard to make decision when the infrastructures were in same level of structural condition. In addition, it did not properly reflect various aspects of infrastructures such as performance, public demand, capacity, etc., which were more valuable to public. Regardless of the importance, these factors were commonly neglected in governmental decision-making process, because there factors were somewhat subjective and difficult to quantify in rational manner. Thus, this study proposes a framework to properly evaluate the serviceability indicators using AHP and Fuzzy approach. The framework is expected to assist governmental agency in establishing effective investment strategies for budget planning.

Keywords: infrastructure, evaluation, serviceability, fuzzy

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Authors: Dimitrios Ntardas, Alexandros Tzanetos, Georgios Dounias

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High Voltage Substations (HVS) are the intermediate step between production of power and successfully transmitting it to clients, making them one of the most important checkpoints in power grids. Nowadays - renewable resources and consequently distributed generation are growing fast, the construction of HVS is of high importance both in terms of quality and time completion so that new energy producers can quickly and safely intergrade in power grids. The resources needed, such as machines and workers, should be carefully allocated so that the construction of a HVS is completed on time, with the lowest possible cost (e.g. not spending additional cost that were not taken into consideration, because of project delays), but in the highest quality. In addition, there are milestones and several checkpoints to be precisely achieved during construction to ensure the cost and timeline control and to ensure that the percentage of governmental funding will be granted. The management of such a demanding project is a NP-hard problem that consists of prerequisite constraints and resource limits for each task of the project. In this work, a hybrid meta-heuristic method is implemented to solve this problem. Meta-heuristics have been proven to be quite useful when dealing with high-dimensional constraint optimization problems. Hybridization of them results in boost of their performance.

Keywords: hybrid meta-heuristic methods, substation construction, resource allocation, time-cost efficiency

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Authors: Pankhuri Dagaonkar, Charumani Singh, Poornima Krothapalli, Krishna Karthik

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The backbone of any retail e-commerce success story is a unique design of supply chain network, providing the business an unparalleled speed and scalability. Primary goal of the supply chain strategy is to meet customer expectation by offering fastest deliveries while keeping the cost minimal. Meeting this objective at the large market that India provides is the problem statement that we have targeted here. There are many models and optimization techniques focused on network design to identify the ideal facility location and size, optimizing cost and speed. In this paper we are presenting a tactical approach to optimize cost of an existing network for a predefined speed. We have considered both forward and reverse logistics of a retail e-commerce supply chain consisting of multiple fulfillment (warehouse) and delivery centers, which are connected via sortation nodes. The mathematical model presented here determines if the shipment from a node should get sorted directly for the last mile delivery center or it should travel as consolidated package to another node for further sortation (resort). The objective function minimizes the total cost by varying the resort percentages between nodes and provides the optimal resource allocation and number of sorts at each node.

Keywords: distribution strategy, mathematical model, network design, supply chain management

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Authors: Khalid Ali, Manar Jammal

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In order to meet the stringent latency and reliability requirements of the upcoming 5G networks, Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) have been proposed. The virtualization of O-RAN has allowed it to be treated as a Network Function Virtualization (NFV) architecture, while its components are considered Virtualized Network Functions (VNFs). Hence, intelligent Machine Learning (ML) based solutions can be utilized to apply different resource management and allocation techniques on O-RAN. However, intelligently allocating resources for O-RAN VNFs can prove challenging due to the dynamicity of traffic in mobile networks. Network providers need to dynamically scale the allocated resources in response to the incoming traffic. Elastically allocating resources can provide a higher level of flexibility in the network in addition to reducing the OPerational EXpenditure (OPEX) and increasing the resources utilization. Most of the existing elastic solutions are reactive in nature, despite the fact that proactive approaches are more agile since they scale instances ahead of time by predicting the incoming traffic. In this work, we propose and evaluate traffic forecasting models based on the ML algorithm. The algorithms aim at predicting future O-RAN traffic by using previous traffic data. Detailed analysis of the traffic data was carried out to validate the quality and applicability of the traffic dataset. Hence, two ML models were proposed and evaluated based on their prediction capabilities.

Keywords: O-RAN, traffic forecasting, NFV, ARIMA, LSTM, elasticity

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Tong-Il Jang, Yong-Hee Lee

Abstract:

Human error is one of the most dreaded factors that may result in unexpected accidents, especially in nuclear power plants. For accident prevention, it is quite indispensable to analyze and to manage the influence of any factor which may raise the possibility of human errors. Out of lots factors, stress has been reported to have a significant influence on human performance. Therefore, this research aimed to develop a work-related stress management program which can guarantee Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) of the workers in nuclear power plants, especially those working in main control rooms. Major stress factors were elicited through literal surveys and classified into major categories such as demands, supports, and relationships. To manage those factors, a test and intervention program based on 4-level approaches was developed over the whole employment cycle including selection and screening of workers, job allocation, and job rotation. In addition, a managerial care program was introduced with the concept of Employee-Assistance-Program (EAP) program. Reviews on the program conducted by ex-operators in nuclear power plants showed responses in the affirmative, and suggested additional treatment to guarantee high performance of human workers, not in normal operations but also in emergency situations.

Keywords: human error, work performance, work stress, Fitness-For-Duty (FFD), Employee Assistance Program (EAP)

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Authors: Nusrat T. Chowdhury, M. F. Baki, A. Azab

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The production planning problem is concerned with specifying the optimal quantities to produce in order to meet the demand for a prespecified planning horizon with the least possible expenditure. Making the right decisions in production planning will affect directly the performance and productivity of a manufacturing firm, which is important for its ability to compete in the market. Therefore, developing and improving solution procedures for production planning problems is very significant. In this paper, we develop a Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition of a multi-item hierarchical production planning problem with capacity constraint and present a column generation approach to solve the problem. The original Mixed Integer Linear Programming model of the problem is decomposed item by item into a master problem and a number of subproblems. The capacity constraint is considered as the linking constraint between the master problem and the subproblems. The subproblems are solved using the dynamic programming approach. We also propose a multi-step iterative capacity allocation heuristic procedure to handle any kind of infeasibility that arises while solving the problem. We compare the computational performance of the developed solution approach against the state-of-the-art heuristic procedure available in the literature. The results show that the proposed heuristic-based decomposition approach improves the solution quality by 20% as compared to the literature.

Keywords: inventory, multi-level capacitated lot-sizing, emission control, setup carryover

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Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

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The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

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Authors: Amr AbdelAzim Ali, G. A. Elsheikh, Moutaz M. Hegazy

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Reaction wheels (RWs) are generally used as main actuator in the attitude control system (ACS) of spacecraft (SC) for fast orientation and high pointing accuracy. In order to achieve the required accuracy for the RWs model, the main characteristics of the RWs that necessitate analysis during the ACS design phase include: technical features, sequence of operating and RW control logic are included in function (behavior) model. A mathematical model is developed including the various errors source. The errors in control torque including relative, absolute, and error due to time delay. While the errors in angular velocity due to differences between average and real speed, resolution error, loose in installation of angular sensor, and synchronization errors. The friction torque is presented in the model include the different feature of friction phenomena: steady velocity friction, static friction and break-away torque, and frictional lag. The model response is compared with the experimental torque and frequency-response characteristics of tested RWs. Based on the created RW model, some criteria of optimization based control torque allocation problem can be recommended like: avoiding the zero speed crossing, bias angular velocity, or preventing wheel from running on the same angular velocity.

Keywords: friction torque, reaction wheels modeling, software in the loop, spacecraft attitude control

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Authors: Kaleb Shiferaw, Berhanu Geberemedhin, Dereje Legesse

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Access to credit is often viewed as a key to transform semi-subsistence smallholders into market oriented producers. However, only a few studies have examined factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on farm activities in general and livestock production in particular. A trivariate probit model with double selection is employed to identify factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on livestock production using data collected from smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. After controlling for two sample selection bias – taking credit for the production season and decision to allocate credit on farm activities – land ownership and access to a livestock centered extension service are found to have a significant (p<0.001) effect on farmers decision to use credit for livestock production. The result showed farmers with large land holding, and access to a livestock centered extension services are more likely to utilize credit for livestock production. However since the effect of land ownership squared is negative the effect of land ownership for those who own a large plot of land lessens. The study highlights the fact that improving access to credit does not automatically translate into more productive households. Improving farmers’ access to credit should be followed by a focused extension services.

Keywords: livestock production, credit access, credit allocation, household decision, double sample selection

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Authors: Stella Chioma Nwizu, Emmanuel Nwangwu

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Entrepreneurship, Vocational, and Technical education is an education that prepares one for effective adaptation to the world of work. It equally makes individuals self-reliant, self-sufficient and contributes to the development of society. It is, therefore, imperative that this type of education should be a priority in the development of any nation and should be given the utmost political support because of its importance and increasing demand on a global scale. This paper qualitatively explores three research questions on the policy status of Entrepreneurial, Vocational, and Technical Education (EVTE) in Nigeria, challenges hindering the enhancement of Entrepreneurial skills, Vocational and Technical Education in Nigeria, and strategies for the way forward. The major sources of data are secondary, interview and observation. Findings revealed the need to revise the policy of ETVE to meet the needs of the changing world of work. Challenges identified include corruption, inadequate funding, inadequate equipment, unqualified TVET Teachers/Instructors, poor documentation, policy implementation, poor conditions of service, and poor supervision of TVET programmes. Finally, the study identified policy revision, improvement in budgetary allocation, collaboration, sensitization, Public-Private Partnership, and training and retraining of instructors as the way forward toward the amelioration of the issues raised.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial skills, vocational and technical education, technical and vocational education and training, VTE policy

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: Samer Muthana Sarsam, Abdul Samad Shibghatullah, Chit Su Mon, Abd Aziz Alias, Hosam Al-Samarraie

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Generative Artificial Intelligence chatbots (GAI chatbots) have emerged as promising tools in various domains, including higher education. However, their specific role within the educational context and the level of legal support for their implementation remain unclear. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the role of Bard, a newly developed GAI chatbot, in higher education. To achieve this objective, English tweets were collected from Twitter's free streaming Application Programming Interface (API). The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm was applied to extract latent topics from the collected tweets. User sentiments, including disgust, surprise, sadness, anger, fear, joy, anticipation, and trust, as well as positive and negative sentiments, were extracted using the NRC Affect Intensity Lexicon and SentiStrength tools. This study explored the benefits, challenges, and future implications of integrating GAI chatbots in higher education. The findings shed light on the potential power of such tools, exemplified by Bard, in enhancing the learning process and providing support to students throughout their educational journey.

Keywords: generative artificial intelligence chatbots, bard, higher education, topic modelling, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Madoda Cekiso, Thenjiwe Meyiwa

Abstract:

Successful postgraduate supervision involves possessing research capabilities, being knowledgeable in specific disciplines, understanding interpersonal relations, exercising mentoring/guidance skills and having appropriate knowledge of own institutional regulatory systems for postgraduate studies. On the other hand, postgraduate students are expected to know what the postgraduate journey entails and the elements and requirements of a postgraduate study. This paper sought to explore and analyse the research experiences of supervisors and postgraduate research students at one South African higher education institution. The study was qualitative in nature and a case study design was followed. The sample was purposively selected and comprised 25 postgraduate students and 20 postgraduate supervisors from one Faculty of the said university. The study findings revealed that there was no clear contract or memorandum of understanding between the postgraduate students and their supervisors. As a result, both supervisors and postgraduate students were not aware of their responsibilities. Both supervisors and postgraduate students complained about the non-availability of postgraduate facilities and resources for postgraduate students. The results further revealed that the allocation of students to supervisors who are not experts in a particular field was a challenge for both postgraduate students and supervisors. The results also revealed that the supervisors were not happy about the commitment of the postgraduate students towards their studies. The supervisors also complained about the postgraduate students who cannot work independently. Based on the findings, the authors recommended that a memorandum of understanding between a postgraduate student and a supervisor might solve some of the challenges. We further recommended a match between the supervisor’s expertise and the student’s focus area.

Keywords: feedback, mentoring, postgraduate, supervisors, student, memorandum of understanding

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

Abstract:

Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: activity-based cost estimating, cost estimation, ETICS, life cycle costing

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Authors: Zair Firdaous, Fourka Mohamed, Elfelsoufi Zoubir

Abstract:

The arrival of e-commerce has changed the supply chain management on the operational level as well as on the organization and strategic and even tactical decisions of the companies. The optimization of resources is an issue that is needed on the tactical and operational strategic plan. This work considers the allocation of resources in the case of pure players that have launched online sales. The aim is to improve the level of customer satisfaction and maintaining the benefits of e-retailer and of its cooperators and reducing costs and risks. We first modeled the B2C chain with all operations that integrates and possible scenarios since online retailers offer a wide selection of personalized service. The personalized services that online shopping companies offer to the clients can be embodied in many aspects, such as the customizations of payment, the distribution methods, and after-sales service choices. Every aspect of customized service has several modes. At that time, we analyzed the optimization problems of supply chain resource in customized online shopping service mode. Then, we realized an optimization model and algorithm for the development based on the analysis of the of the B2C supply chain resources. It is a multi-objective optimization that considers the collaboration of resources in operations, time and costs but also the risks and the quality of services as well as dynamic and uncertain characters related to the request.

Keywords: supply chain resource, e-commerce, pure-players, optimization

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Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam

Abstract:

A distribution system is an interface between the bulk power system and the consumers. Among these systems, radial distributions system is popular because of low cost and simple design. In distribution systems, the voltages at buses reduces when moved away from the substation, also the losses are high. The reason for a decrease in voltage and high losses is the insufficient amount of reactive power, which can be provided by the shunt capacitors. But the placement of the capacitor with an appropriate size is always a challenge. Thus, the optimal capacitor placement problem is to determine the location and size of capacitors to be placed in distribution networks in an efficient way to reduce the power losses and improve the voltage profile of the system. For this purpose, in this paper, two stage methodologies are used. In the first stage, the load flow of pre-compensated distribution system is carried out using ‘dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm (DRDLFA)’. On the basis of this load flow the potential locations of compensation are computed. In the second stage, Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique is used to determine the optimal location and size of the capacitors such that the cost of the energy loss and capacitor cost to be a minimum. The above method is tested on IEEE 9 and 34 bus system and compared with other methods in the literature.

Keywords: dimension reducing distribution load flow algorithm, DRDLFA, genetic algorithm, electrical distribution network, optimal capacitors placement, voltage profile improvement, loss reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 369