Search results for: risk transfer

Authors: Siti Rohana Mohd Yatim, Ku Halim Ku Hamid, Kamariah Noor Ismail, Zulkifli Abdul Rashid

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The aim of this study is to investigate odour emission profiles from storage of food waste and to assess the potential health risk caused by exposure to volatile compounds. Food waste decomposition process was conducted for 14 days and kept at 20°C and 30°C in self-made bioreactor. VOCs emissions from both samples were collected at different stages of decomposition starting at day 0, day 1, day 3, day 5, day 7, day 10, day 12 and day 14. It was analyzed using TD-GC/MS. Findings showed that various VOCs were released during decomposition of food waste. Compounds produced were influenced by time, temperature and the physico-chemical characteristics of the compounds. The most abundant compound released was dimethyl disulfide. Potential health risk of exposure to this compound is represented by hazard ratio, HR, calculated at 1.6 x 1011. Since HR equal to or less than 1.0 is considered negligible risk, this indicates that the compound posed a potential risk to human health.

Keywords: volatile organic compounds, decomposition process, food waste, health risk

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Authors: Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Imron Mawardi, Achsania Hendratmi

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Murabaha is the most popular contract by the Islamic banks in Indonesia, since there is opinion stating that the risk level of mudharaba and musyaraka are higher and the return is uncertain. This research aims to analyze the difference of return, risk, and variation coefficient between profit sharing-based and trading-based financing in Islamic bank. This research uses quantitative approach using Wilcoxon signed rank test with data sampled from 13 Indonesian Islamic banks, collected from their quarterly financial reports from 2011 to 2015. The result shows the significant difference in return, while risk and variation coefficient are almost same. From the analysis, it can be concluded that profit sharing-based financing is less desirable not because of its risk. Trading-based financing is more desirable than the profit sharing because of its return.

Keywords: financing, Islamic bank, return, risk

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Authors: Abdulaziz Almustafa

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Considering the critical role permanence has on predictions related to the contextual interference effect on laboratory and field research, this study sought to determine whether the paradigm of the effect depends on the complexity of the skill during the acquisition and transfer phases. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of contextual interference CI by extending previous laboratory and field research with adult athletes through the acquisition and transfer phases. Male (n=60) athletes age 18-22 years-old, were chosen randomly from Eastern Province Clubs. They were assigned to complete blocked, random, or serial practices. Analysis of variance with repeated measures MANOVA indicated that, the results did not support the notion of CI. There were no significant differences in acquisition phase between blocked, serial and random practice groups. During the transfer phase, there were no major differences between the practice groups. Apparently, due to the task complexity, participants were probably confused and not able to use the advantages of contextual interference. This is another contradictory result to contextual interference effects in acquisition and transfer phases in sport settings. One major factor that can influence the effect of contextual interference is task characteristics as the nature of level of difficulty in sport-related skill.

Keywords: contextual interference, acquisition, transfer, task difficulty

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Ajoy Kumar Das, Prasenjit Dey

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Heat transfer due to forced convection of copper water based nanofluid has been predicted by Artificial Neural network (ANN). The present nanofluid is formed by mixing copper nano particles in water and the volume fractions are considered here are 0% to 15% and the Reynolds number are kept constant at 100. The back propagation algorithm is used to train the network. The present ANN is trained by the input and output data which has been obtained from the numerical simulation, performed in finite volume based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) commercial software Ansys Fluent. The numerical simulation based results are compared with the back propagation based ANN results. It is found that the forced convection heat transfer of water based nanofluid can be predicted correctly by ANN. It is also observed that the back propagation ANN can predict the heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid very quickly compared to standard CFD method.

Keywords: forced convection, square cylinder, nanofluid, neural network

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Authors: Manzurul Alam, John Griffiths, David Holloway, Megan Paull, Anne Clear

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Background: This paper investigates the nature of risk management practices in non-profit organizations. It is argued here that the risk exposure of these organizations has increased as a result of their entrepreneurial activities. This study explores how a particular non-profit organization formulates its risk strategies in the face funding restrictions. Design/Method/Approach: The study adopts a case study approach to report the results on how a non-profit organization diversifies its activities, tackles risks arising from such activities and improves performance. Results: The findings show that the organization made structural adjustments and leadership changes which helped to adjust their risk strategies. It also reports the organizational processes to deal with risks arising from both related and unrelated diversification strategies. Implications: Any generalization from this case example needs to be taken with caution as there are significant differences between non-profit organizations operating in different sectors. Originality: The paper makes a significant contribution to the non-profit literature by highlighting the diversification strategies along with risk performance.

Keywords: risk management, performance management, non-profit organizations, financial management

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Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

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An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

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There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

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Authors: Belkacem Ould Said, Nourddine Retiel, Abdelilah Benazza, Mohamed Aichouni

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In this paper, a numerical study of two-dimensional steady flow has been made of natural convection in a differentially heated vertical conical partially annular space. The heat transfer is assumed to take place by natural convection. The inner and outer surfaces of annulus are maintained at uniform wall temperature. The annulus is filled with air. The CFD FLUENT12.0 code is used to solve the governing equations of mass, momentum and energy using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation for density variation. The streamlines and the isotherms of the fluid are presented for different annuli with different boundary conditions and Rayleigh numbers. Emphasis is placed on the influences of the height of the inner vertical cone on the flow and the temperature fields. In addition, the effects on the heat transfer are discussed for various values of physical parameters of the fluid and geometric parameters of the annulus. The heat transfer on the hot walls of the annulus is also calculated in order to make comparisons between the cylinder annulus for boundary conditions and several Rayleigh numbers. A good agreement of Nusselt number has been found between the present predictions and reference from the literature data.

Keywords: natural convection, heat transfer, numerical simulation, conical partially, annular space

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, value at risk

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Authors: Teresa Smith, Farrah Jacquez

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Health-risk behaviors (e.g., smoking, poor diet) directly increase the risk for chronic disease and morbidity. There is substantial evidence of a negative association between socioeconomic status (SES) and engagement in health-risk behaviors. However, due to the complexity of SES, researchers have suggested looking beyond this factor to fully understand the mechanisms that underlie engagement in health-risk behaviors. Stress is one plausible mechanism through which SES impacts health-risk behaviors. Currently, it remains unclear how stress occurring across the life course might impact health behaviors and explain the association between SES and these behaviors. To address the gaps in the literature, 172 adults between the ages of 18-49 were surveyed about their lifetime stress exposure, sociodemographic variables, and health-risk behaviors via an online recruitment portal, Prolific. Five major findings emerged from the current study. First, SES was negatively associated with engagement in health-risk behaviors and lifetime stress above and beyond current stress and other relevant demographics. Second, lifetime stress was significantly associated with health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and relevant demographic variables. Third, lifetime stress fully mediated the association between SES and health-risk behaviors above and beyond current stress and other demographics. Fourth, the severity of stress experienced emerged as the most significant lifetime stress variable that explains the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors. Fifth and finally, lower SES and experiencing financial and legal/crime stressors increased the likelihood of engaging in health-risk behaviors. The current study results align with previous research and suggest that stress occurring over the lifespan impacts the relation between SES and health-risk behaviors, which are in turn known to impact health outcomes. However, our findings move the current literature forward by providing a more nuanced understanding of the specific aspects of stress that influence this association. Specifically, the severity of stress experienced across the entire lifespan was the most important aspect of stress when examining the association between SES and health-risk behaviors. Further, individuals most at risk for engaging in health-risk behaviors are those of the lowest SES and experience financial and legal/crime stressors. These findings have the potential to inform interventions and policies aimed at addressing health-risk behaviors by providing a more sophisticated understanding of the impact of stress.

Keywords: stress, health behaviors, socioeconomic status, health

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Authors: Tomasz Borowski, Dawid Sołoducha, Rafał Rakoczy, Marian Kordas

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The growing interest in magnetic fields applications is visible due to the increased number of articles on this topic published in the last few years. In this study, the influence of various magnetic fields (MF) on the mass transfer process was examined. To carry out the prototype set-up equipped with an MF generator that is able to generate a pulsed magnetic field (PMF), oscillating magnetic field (OMF), rotating magnetic field (RMF) and static magnetic field (SMF) was used. To demonstrate the effect of MF’s on mass transfer, the calcium carbonate precipitation process was selected. To the vessel with attached conductometric probes and placed inside the generator, specific doses of calcium chloride and sodium carbonate were added. Electrical conductivity changes of the mixture inside the vessel were measured over time until equilibrium was established. Measurements were conducted for various MF strengths and concentrations of added chemical compounds. Obtained results were analyzed, which allowed to creation of mathematical correlation models showing the influence of MF’s on the studied process.

Keywords: mass transfer, oscillating magnetic field, rotating magnetic field, static magnetic field

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Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Feyza Eda Akyurek, Bayram Sahin, Kadir Gelis, Eyuphan Manay, Murat Ceylan

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Turbulent forced convection heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of Al₂O₃–water nanofluid flowing through a concentric tube heat exchanger with and without coiled wire turbulators were studied experimentally. The experiments were conducted in the Reynolds number ranging from 4000 to 20000, particle volume concentrations of 0.8 vol.% and 1.6 vol.%. Two turbulators with the pitches of 25 mm and 39 mm were used. The results of nanofluids indicated that average Nusselt number increased much more with increasing Reynolds number compared to that of pure water. Thermal conductivity enhancement by the nanofluids resulted in heat transfer enhancement. Once the pressure drop of the alumina/water nanofluid was analyzed, it was nearly equal to that of pure water at the same Reynolds number range. It was concluded that nanofluids with the volume fractions of 0.8 and 1.6 did not have a significant effect on pressure drop change. However, the use of wire coils in heat exchanger enhanced heat transfer as well as the pressure drop.

Keywords: turbulators, heat exchanger, nanofluids, heat transfer enhancement

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Authors: Behzad Ahdiharab, Senol Baskaya, Tamer Calisir

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Heat exchangers are one of the most widely used systems in factories, refineries etc. In this study, natural convection heat transfer using nano-fluids in between two cylinders is numerically investigated. The inner and outer cylinders are kept at constant temperatures. One of the most important assumptions in the project is that the working fluid is non-Newtonian. In recent years, the use of nano-fluids in industrial applications has increased profoundly. In this study, nano-Newtonian fluids containing metal particles with high heat transfer coefficients have been used. All fluid properties such as homogeneity has been calculated. In the present study, solutions have been obtained under unsteady conditions, base fluid was water, and effects of various parameters on heat transfer have been investigated. These parameters are Rayleigh number (103 < Ra < 106), power-law index (0.6 < n < 1.4), aspect ratio (0 < AR < 0.8), nano-particle composition, horizontal and vertical displacement of the inner cylinder, rotation of the inner cylinder, and volume fraction of nanoparticles. Results such as the internal cylinder average and local Nusselt number variations, contours of temperature, flow lines are presented. The results are also discussed in detail. From the validation study performed it was found that a very good agreement exists between the present results and those from the open literature. It was found out that the heat transfer is always affected by the investigated parameters. However, the degree to which the heat transfer is affected does change in a wide range.

Keywords: heat transfer, circular space, non-Newtonian, nano fluid, computational fluid dynamics.

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Hamidreza Bayat, Arash Mirabdolah Lavasani, Meysam Bolhasani, Sajad Moosavi

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Heat transfer from flat tube is studied numerically. Reynolds number is defined base on equivalent circular tube which is varied in range of 100 to 300. In these range of Reynolds number flow is considered to be laminar, unsteady, and incompressible. Equations are solved by using finite volume method. Results show that increasing l/D from 1 to 2 has insignificant effect on heat transfer and Nusselt number of flat tube is slightly lower than circular tube. However, thermal-hydraulic performance of flat tube is up to 2.7 times greater than circular tube.

Keywords: laminar flow, flat tube, convective heat transfer, heat exchanger

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines based regression approach to model the mass transfer capacity of multiple plunging jets, both vertical (θ = 90°) and inclined (θ = 60°). The data set used in this study consists of four input parameters with a total of eighty eight cases. For testing, tenfold cross validation was used. Correlation coefficient values of 0.971 and 0.981 (root mean square error values of 0.0025 and 0.0020) were achieved by using polynomial and radial basis kernel functions based support vector regression respectively. Results suggest an improved performance by radial basis function in comparison to polynomial kernel based support vector machines. The estimated overall mass transfer coefficient, by both the kernel functions, is in good agreement with actual experimental values (within a scatter of ±15 %); thereby suggesting the utility of support vector machines based regression approach.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, ecological sciences

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

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Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Saeid Seddegh, Xiaolin Wang, Alan D. Henderson, Dong Chen, Oliver Oims

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The main objective of this research is to study the heat transfer processes and phase change behaviour of a phase change material (PCM) in shell and tube latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems. The thermal behaviour in a vertical and horizontal shell-and-tube heat energy storage system using a pure thermal conduction model and a combined conduction-convection heat transfer model is compared in this paper. The model is first validated using published experimental data available in literature and then used to study the temperature variation, solid-liquid interface, phase distribution, total melting and solidification time during melting and solidification processes of PCMs. The simulated results show that the combined convection and conduction model can better describe the energy transfer in PCMs during melting process. In contrast, heat transfer by conduction is more significant during the solidification process since the two models show little difference. Also, it was concluded that during the charging process for the horizontal orientation, convective heat transfer has a strong effect on melting of the upper part of the solid PCM and is less significant during melting of the lower half of the solid PCM. However, in the vertical orientation, convective heat transfer is the same active during the entire charging process. In the solidification process, the thermal behavior does not show any difference between horizontal and vertical systems.

Keywords: latent heat thermal energy storage, phase change material, natural convection, melting, shell and tube heat exchanger, melting, solidification

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Authors: Tuqa Abdulrazzaq, Hussein Togun, M. K. A. Ariffin, S. N. Kazi, A. Badarudin, N. M. Adam, S. Masuri

Abstract:

Numerical study of heat transfer and fluid flow over vertical double forward facing step were presented. The k-w model with finite volume method was employed to solve continuity, momentum, and energy equations. Different step heights were adopted for range of Reynolds number varied from 10000 to 40000, and range of temperature varied from 310K to 340 K. The straight side of duct is insulated while the side of double forward facing step is heated. The result shows augmentation of heat transfer due to the recirculation region created after and before steps. Effect of step length and Reynolds number observed on increase of local Nusselt number particularly at recirculation regions. Contour of streamline velocity is plotted to show recirculation regions after and before steps. Numerical simulation in this paper done by used ANSYS Fluent 14.

Keywords: turbulent flow, double forward, heat transfer, separation flow

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