Search results for: rate of force development

Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

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The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

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Authors: Isaias Teklia Berhe

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A decision that deals with international disputes, be it arbitral or judicial, has to properly reflect objectivity and coherence with existing rules of international law. This paper shows the decision of the Ethio-Eritrea Claims Commission on the jus ad bellum case is bereft of objectivity and coherence, which contributed a disservice to international law on many aspects. The Commission’s decision that holds Eritrea in contravention to Art 2(4) of the UN Charter based on Ethiopia’s contention is flawed. It fails to consider: the illegitimacy of an actual authority established over contested territory through hostile acts, the proper determination of effectivites under international law, the sanctity of colonially determined boundaries, Ethiopia’s prior firm political recognition and undergirds to respect colonial boundary, and Ethio-Eritrea Border Commission’s decision. The paper will also argue that the Commission confused Eritrea’s right of self-defense with the rule against the non-use of force to settle territorial disputes; wherefore its decision sanitizes or sterilizes unlawful change of territory resulted through unlawful use of force to the effect of advantaging aggressions. The paper likewise argues that the decision is so sacrilegious that it disregards the ossified legal finality of colonial boundaries. Moreover, its approach toward armed attack does not reflect the peculiarity of the jus ad bellum case rather it brings about definitional uncertainties and sustains the perception that the law on self-defense is unsettled.

Keywords: armed attack, Eritrea, Ethiopia, self-defense, territorial integrity, use of force

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Authors: Jin Sim, Kwan U. Kim, Ryong Jin Jang, Sung Duk Kim

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Earth rotation is one of astronomical phenomena without which it is impossible to think of human life. That is why the investigation of the Earth's rotation is very important, and it has a long history of study. The invention of quartz clocks in the 1930s and atomic time 1950s and the introduction of modern technology into astronomic observation in recent years resulted in rapid development of the study of Earth’s rotation. The theory of the Earth rotation, however, has not been up to the high level of astronomic observation due to limitation of the time such as impossibility of quantitative calculation of moment of external force for Euler’s dynamical equation based on Newtonian mechanics. As a typical example, we can take the problems that cover the instabilities of the Earth’s rotation proved completely by the astronomic observations as well as polar motion, the precession and nutation of the Earth rotation axis which have not been described in a single equation in a quantitative way from the unique law of Earth rotation. In particular, at present the problem of what the main factor causing the instabilities of the Earth rotation is has not been solved clearly in quantitative ways yet. Therefore, this paper addresses quantitative proof that the main factor which causes the instabilities of the Earth rotation is the moment of external force rather than variations in the relative atmospheric angular momentum and in moment of inertia of the Earth’s body due to the time limitation and under some assumptions.

Keywords: atmospheric angular momentum, instabilities of the Earth’s rotation, law of the Earth’s rotation change, moment of inertia of the Earth

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Authors: Yamba Dabone, Tounwendyam Frédéric Ouedraogo, Pengwendé Justin Kouraogo, Oumarou Sie

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Reliable data transport over the Internet is one of the goals of researchers in the field of computer science. Data such as videos and audio files are becoming increasingly large. As a result, transporting them over the Internet is becoming difficult. Therefore, it has been important to establish a method to locally interconnect autonomous systems (AS) with each other to facilitate traffic exchange. It is in this context that Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) are set up to facilitate local and even regional traffic. They are now the lifeblood of the Internet. Therefore, it is important to think about the factors that can characterize IXPs. However, other more quantifiable characteristics can help determine the quality of an IXP. In addition, these characteristics may allow ISPs to have a clearer view of the exchange node and may also convince other networks to connect to an IXP. To that end, we define five new IXP characteristics: the attraction rate (τₐₜₜᵣ); and the peering rate (τₚₑₑᵣ); the target rate of an IXP (Objₐₜₜ); the number of IXP links (Nₗᵢₙₖ); the resistance rate τₑ𝒻𝒻 and the attraction failure rate (τ𝒻).

Keywords: characteristic, autonomous system, internet service provider, internet exchange point, rate

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Authors: Onimisi Ekuh Abdullahi, Lasbat Omoshalewa Akinsemoyin

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In Nigeria, over two decades now, there has been a steady increase in the insecurity of human lives and physical properties. In the South-South Nigeria, there is an acute insecurity of militants destroying oil pipe-lines and kidnapping cases; in the Middle-Belt zone, insecurity centers on kidnapping and in a few states crises between Herdsmen and Farmers range like wildfire; in the South-Western zone, kidnapping is vile, in the North-East zone the issue of Boko Haram has become World-wide concern, and in North-west zone, cattle rustlers and religious crisis are of great concern. At the initial stage, the Nigerian Police Force was called upon to quell the crisis. It soon became obvious that the dimension of the crisis was beyond police force. The Nigerian Armed Forces were called to maintain peace and order because the magnitude of the crisis was threatening the national unity and cohesion. The main objective of this paper, was to examine the investigative techniques of criminal by the military in Nigeria. Specifically to examine the physical and psychological force; the abusive techniques and tactics; and suggest modern psychological techniques of interrogating criminals accepted to Human Right Activists and the rule of law. The process is to create room behaviour and practices that carefully monitored the trust and reliability of admissions produced by Psychological manipulative process in Nigeria.

Keywords: military, Nigerian criminal, physical, psychological force

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Authors: A. Sakavičius, A. Lukša, V. Nargelienė, V. Bukauskas, G. Astromskas, A. Šetkus

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We investigate the influence of annealing on the properties of a contact between graphene and metal (Au and Ni), using circular transmission line model (CTLM) contact geometry. Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) and Raman spectroscopy are applied for characterization of the surface and interface properties. Annealing causes a decrease of the metal-graphene contact resistance for both Ni and Au.

Keywords: Au/Graphene contacts, graphene, Kelvin force probe microscopy, NiC/Graphene contacts, Ni/Graphene contacts, Raman spectroscopy

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: Joanne Haddad

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The distinctive traits of early settlers at initial stages of institutional development may be crucial for cultural formation. In 1973, the cultural geographer Wilbur Zelinsky postulated this in his doctrine of “first effective settlement”. There is however little empirical evidence supporting the role of early settlers in shaping culture over the long run. This paper tests this hypothesis by relating early settlers’ culture to within state variation in gender norms in the United States. Settlers’ culture is captured using past female labor force participation, women’s suffrage, and financial rights at their place of origin. The paper documents the distinctive characteristics of settlers’ populations and provide suggestive evidence in support of the transmission of gender norms across space and time. Results from this analysis show that women’s labor supply is higher, in both the short and long run, in U.S. counties that historically hosted a larger settler population originating from places with favorable gender attitudes. Findings from this study shed new light on the importance of the characteristics of immigrants and their place of origin for cultural formation in hosting societies.

Keywords: female labor force participation, settlers, gender norms, cultural formation.

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Authors: Abasali Amini, Alireza Mirbagheri, Amir Homayoun Jafari

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In this paper, a new structure for teleoperation systems with time varying delay has been modeled and proposed. A random time varying the delay of up to 150 msec is simulated in teleoperation channel of both masters to slave and vice versa. The system stability and transparency have been investigated, comparing the result of a PID controller and an optimal controller on each master and slave sub-systems separately. The controllers have been designed in slave subsystem for reducing position errors between master and slave, and another controller has been designed in the master subsystem to establish stability, transparency and force tracking. Results have been compared together. The results showed PID controller is appropriate in position tracking, but force response oscillates in contact with the environment. We showed the optimal control established position tracking properly. Also, force tracking is achieved in this controller appropriately.

Keywords: optimal control, time varying delay, teleoperation systems, stability and transparency

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Authors: Marta Kozuń, Krystian Toczewski, Sylwester Gerus, Justyna Wolicka, Kamila Boberek, Jarosław Filipiak, Dariusz Patkowski

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Long gap esophageal atresia is a congenital defect and is a challenge for pediatric surgeons all over the world. There are different surgical techniques in use to treat atresia. One of them is esophageal elongation but the optimal suture placement technique to achieve maximum elongation with low-risk complications is still unknown. The aim of the study was to characterize the process of esophageal elongation from the biomechanical point of view. Esophagi of white Pekin Duck was used as a model based on the size of this animal which is similar to a newborn (2.5-4kg). The specimens were divided into two groups: the control group (CG) and the group with sutures (SG). The esophagi of the control group were mounted in the grips of the MTS Tytron 250 testing machine and tensile test until rupture was performed. The loading speed during the test was 10mm/min. Then the SG group was tested. Each esophagus was cut into two equal parts and that were fused together using surgical sutures. The distance between both esophagus parts was 20mm. Ten both ends were mounted on the same testing machine and the tensile test with the same parameters was conducted. For all specimens, force and elongation were recorded. The biomechanical properties, i.e., the maximal force and maximal elongation, were determined on the basis of force-elongation curves. The maximal elongation was determined at the point of maximal force. The force achieved with the suture group was 10.1N±1.9N and 50.3N±11.6N for the control group. The highest elongation was also obtained for the control group: 18mm±3mm vs. 13.5mm ±2.4mm for the suture group. The presented study expands the knowledge of elongation of esophagi. It is worth emphasizing that the duck esophagus differs from the esophagus of a newborn, i.e., its wall lacks striated muscle cells. This is why the parts of animal esophagi used in the research are may characterized by different biomechanical properties in comparison with newborn tissue.

Keywords: long gap atresia treatment, esophageal elongation, biomechanical properties, soft tissue

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Authors: Mohammad Iqbal Malik

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Economic development of a country depends on its business ethics and values. Islamic teachings provide obvious guidelines in this regard. Mutual understanding, honesty and ethics possess central place in Islamic teachings. These teachings not only prohibit from amalgamation, black-marketing, hoarding and deception but also force to treat a customer amiably. Business ethics are broad spectrum in Islamic society due to these high moral values. One can estimate the importance of business ethics in Islam for economic development in Islamic society is evident by the Hadith of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) in which He excluded a trader from Muslim community who did not behave in good manners with his clients. In this study we present impact of business ethics on economic development of a Muslim society. This study is based on basic teachings of Quran and Sunnah, Fiqh, Economics and other books. This study explores the behavior of Muslim traders and reveals useful inferences. Policy makers, traders, academia, scholars, and general public may learn lessons from this study with respect to business ethics in Islamic perspective.

Keywords: ethics, business, Islam, economic perspective

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Authors: Rafal Sochaczewski, Grzegorz Baranski, Adam Majczak

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This paper presents the bench research results on a CNG injector at steady state. The quantities measured included voltage and current in a solenoid, pressure of gas behind an injector and injector’s flow rate. Accordingly, injector’s operation parameters were determined according to needle’s lift and injection pressure. The discrepancies between the theoretical (electric) and actual time of injection were defined to specify injector’s opening and closing lag times and the uniqueness of these values in successive cycles of gas injection. It has been demonstrated that needle’s lift has got a stronger impact on injector’s operating parameters than injection pressure. With increasing injection pressure, the force increases and closes an injection valve, which adversely affects uniqueness of injector’s operation. The paper also describes the concept of an injector dedicated to direct CNG injection into a combustion chamber in a dual-fuel engine. The injector’s design enables us to replace 80% of diesel fuel in a dual-fuel engine with a maximum power of 85 kW. Minimum injection pressure is 1,4 MPa then. Simultaneously, injector’s characteristics for varied needle’s lifts and injector’s nonlinear operating points were developed. Acknowledgement: This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, under Grant Agreement No. PBS1/A6/4/2012.

Keywords: CNG injector, diesel engine, direct injection, dual fuel

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Recently developed cooperative diversity scheme enables a terminal to get transmit diversity through the support of other terminals. However, most of the introduced cooperative schemes have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In order to achieve high data rate, we propose a cooperative scheme that employs hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: cooperative communication, hierarchical modulation, high data rate, transmission scheme

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: B. X. Tchomeni, A. A. Alugongo, L. M. Masu

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This paper presents a 4-DOF nonlinear model of a cracked of Laval rotor established based on Energy Principles. The model has been used to simulate coupled torsional-lateral response of the cracked rotor stator-system with multiple parametric excitations, namely, rotor-stator-rub, a breathing transverse crack, unbalanced mass, and an axial force. Nonlinearity due to a “breathing” crack is incorporated by considering a simple hinge model which is suitable for small breathing crack. The vibration response of a cracked rotor passing through its critical speed with rotor-stator interaction is analyzed, and an attempt for crack detection and monitoring explored. Effects of unbalanced eccentricity with phase and acceleration are investigated. By solving the motion equations, steady-state vibration response is obtained in presence of several rotor faults. The presence of a crack is observable in the power spectrum despite the excitation by the axial force and rotor-stator rub impact. Presented results are consistent with existing literature and could be adopted into rotor condition monitoring strategies

Keywords: rotor, crack, rubbing, axial force, non linear

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Authors: Xiuxia Sun, Yan Jin, Zilong Liu, Shiming Wei

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As a critical mineral component of shale, illite is essential in oil exploration and development due to its surface hydration characteristics and action mechanism. This paper, starting from the perspective of the molecular structure of organic matter, uses molecular dynamics simulation technology to deeply explore the interaction mechanism between organic molecules and the illite surface. In the study, we thoroughly considered the forces such as van der Waals force, electrostatic force, and steric hindrance and constructed an illite crystal model covering C8-C18 modifiers. Subsequently, we systematically analyzed surfactants' adsorption behavior and hydration characteristics with different alkyl chain numbers, lengths, and concentrations on the illite surface. The simulation results show that surfactant molecules with shorter alkyl chains present a lateral monolayer or inclined double-layer arrangement on the illite surface, and these two arrangements may coexist under different concentration conditions. In addition, with the increase in the number of alkyl chains, the interlayer spacing of illite increases significantly. In contrast, the change in alkyl chain length has a limited effect on surface properties. It is worth noting that the change in functional group structure has a particularly significant effect on the wettability of the illite surface, and its influence even exceeds the change in the alkyl chain structure. This discovery gives us a new perspective on understanding and regulating the wetting properties. The results obtained are consistent with the XRD analysis and wettability experimental data in this paper, further confirming the reliability of the research conclusions. This study deepened our understanding of illite's hydration characteristics and mechanism. We provided new ideas and directions for the molecular design and application development of oilfield chemicals.

Keywords: illite, surfactant, hydration, wettability, adsorption

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Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin

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Using the slaughterhouse waste combined to suitable dose of nitrogen fertilizer to Apium glaviolen gives the significant effect to mean relative growth rate. The same pattern also showed significantly in net assimilation rate. The net assimilation rate increased significantly during 42 days old plants. Combination of treatment of 100 ml/l animal slaughterhouse waste and 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer/kg soil increased the vegetative growth of Apium glaviolens. The biomass of plant and mean relative growth rate of Apium glaviolens were rapidly increased in 4 weeks after planting and gradually decreased after 35 days at the harvest time. Combination of 100 ml/l slaughterhouse waste and applied 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer has increased all parameters. The highest vegetative growth, biomass, mean relative growth rate and net assimilation rate were received from 0.56 mg-l.m-2.days-1.

Keywords: Apium glaviolent, nitrogen, pollutant, slaughterhouse, waste

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Authors: Lu Anne A. Godinez, May Claudine I. Gador, Preacious G. Gumolon, Louiechi Von R. Mendoza, Neil Bryan N. Moninio

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Gender equality and women empowerment is the third of eight Millennium Development Goals. Understanding corruption’s linkages to gender equality issues and how it impacts women’s empowerment is part of the broader process of advancing women’s rights and understanding the gender dimensions of democratic governance. Taking a long view of political (corruption index) and the social (women empowerment) dimension — a view from 2015 to 2030, a context based forecast was conducted to forecast the ASEAN corruption index in the next 15 years, answering the question: “Does women political involvement decrease corruption rate index of ASEAN countries in the next 15 years?” The study have established that there will be an increase women political involvement in the ASEAN countries in the next 15 years that will cause a drop on corruption rate index. There will be a significant decline on corruption rate index in 2030. This change entails reform not only in the political aspect of progress, but to the social aspect as well. Finally, the political aspect is increasing at a constant rate however a double or triple increase of the social aspect is seen to be the key solution for corruption.

Keywords: women, women political involvement, corruption, gender equity index, economic participation, educational attainment, political empowerment, control of corruption, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability government effectiveness, political stability and corruption perception index

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Authors: Majid Davoodi Makinejad, Reza Ghaeli

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Developing sustainable and environment-friendly products has become a major concern in the car manufacturing industry. New legislation ‘End of Life Vehicle’ increased design complexities of bumper system parameters e.g. design for disassembly, design for remanufacturing and recycling. ELV processing employs dismantling, shredding and landfill. The bumper is designed to prevent physical damage, reduce aerodynamic drag force as well as being aesthetically pleasing to the consumer. Design for dismantling is the first step in ELVs approach in the bumper system. This study focused on the analysis of ELV value in redesign solutions of the bumper system in comparison with the conventional concept. It provided a guideline to address the critical consideration in material, manufacturing and joining methods of bumper components to take advantages in easy dismounting, separation and recycling.

Keywords: sustainable development, environmental friendly, bumper system, end of life vehicle

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Authors: Amrit Ladhani

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The cyclic universe theory is a model of cosmic evolution according to which the universe undergoes endless cycles of expansion and cooling, each beginning with a “big bang” and ending in a “big crunch”. In this paper, we propose a unique property of Space-time. This particular and marvelous nature of space shows us that space can stretch, expand, and shrink. This property of space is caused by the size of the universe change over time: growing or shrinking. The observed accelerated expansion, which relates to the stretching of Shrunk space for the new theory, is derived. This theory is based on three underlying notions: First, the Big Bang is not the beginning of Space-time, but rather, at the very beginning fraction of a second, there was an infinite force of infinite Shrunk space in the cosmic singularity that force gave rise to the big bang and caused the rapidly growing of space, and all other forms of energy are transformed into new matter and radiation and a new period of expansion and cooling begins. Second, there was a previous phase leading up to it, with multiple cycles of contraction and expansion that repeat indefinitely. Third, the two principal long-range forces are the gravitational force and the repulsive force generated by shrink space. They are the two most fundamental quantities in the universe that govern cosmic evolution. They may provide the clockwork mechanism that operates our eternal cyclic universe. The universe will not continue to expand forever; no need, however, for dark energy and dark matter. This new model of Space-time and its unique properties enables us to describe a sequence of events from the Big Bang to the Big Crunch.

Keywords: dark matter, dark energy, cosmology, big bang and big crunch

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Authors: Kaavya Rathnakumar

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Minimally processed fruits have the attributes of convenience and fresh like quality. In minimally processed products, the cells of the tissue are alive, and the essential nutrients and flavours are retained. Some of the procedures include washing, trimming, sorting, cutting, slicing and shredding. Fruits such as pineapple and guava were taken for the study of textural properties for a period of five days. After the performance of various unit operations 50g cubes of pineapple and guava has been weighed. For determining the textural properties, samples were taken in which set of 12 samples were treated by using 1% citric acid solution and dried for 5 minutes the remaining set of 12 samples were untreated. In set of treated samples 6 were vacuum packed and stored in the refrigerator, and the other sample was normally stored. For untreated samples was done in a similar way. In texture profile analysis the force required for 1cm penetration of 2mm cylindrical needle inside the fruits were recorded for all packages. It was observed that guava the fresh sample had a force of penetration of 3250mm and as the days increased the force decreased to 357.4 mm for vacuum packed refrigerated storage. In the case of pineapple, the force of penetration of the fresh sample was 2325mm which was decreased to 26.3mm on the fourth day and very low at the fifth day for vacuum packed refrigerated storage. But in case of untreated samples, the fruits were spoiled may be because of no pre-treatment and packaging. Comparatively, it was found that vacuum packed refrigerated samples had higher shelf life than normal packed samples in ambient conditions.

Keywords: 1% citric acid solution, normal packed, refrigerated storage, vacuum packed

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Authors: Kelsey Scanlon

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Introduction: With the rate of female collegiate and professional athletes on the rise in recent decades, fluctuations in physical performance in relation to the menstrual cycle is an important area of study. PURPOSE: The purpose of this research was to compare differences in upper and lower body maximal anaerobic capacities across a single menstrual cycle. Methode: Participants (n=11) met a total of four times; once for familiarization and again on day 1 of menses (follicular phase), day 14 (ovulation), and day 21 (luteal phase) respectively. Upper body power was assessed using a bench press weight of ~50% of the participant’s predetermined 1-repetition maximum (1-RM) on a ballistic measurement system and variables included peak force (N), mean force (N), peak power (W), mean power (W), and peak velocity (m/s). Lower body power output was collected using a standard Wingate test. The variables of interest were anaerobic capacity (w/kg), peak power (W), mean power (W), fatigue index (W/s), and total work (J). Result: Statistical significance was not observed (p > 0.05) in any of the aforementioned variables after completing multiple one ways of analyses of variances (ANOVAs) with repeated measures on time. Conclusion: Within the parameters of this research, neither female upper nor lower body power output differed across the menstrual cycle when analyzed using 50% of one repetition (1RM) maximal bench press and the 30-second maximal effort cycle ergometer Wingate test. Therefore, researchers should not alter their subject populations due to the incorrect assumption that power output may be influenced by the menstrual cycle.

Keywords: anaerobic, athlete, female, power

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Yori Gidron, Laura Caton, Irit Ben-Aharon

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Background: Many patients and even certain clinicians attribute cancer development to psychosocial factors. Yet, empirical data supports more the prognostic role, rather than the etiological role, of psychosocial factors in cancer. Part of the inconsistency may result from not considering possible moderating factors in the etiological role of psychosocial factors. One important candidate moderating factor is the vagal nerve, whose activity is indexed by heart-rate variability (HRV). The vagal nerve may prevent cancer since it reduces inflammation on the one hand, and since it increases anti-tumor immunity on the other hand. This study examined the moderating role of the vagus in the relation between life threatening events (LTE) and cancer development. Method: We re-analyzed data from the Lifelines Dutch longitudinal cohort study of over 150,000 people. The present study included 82,751 adults, who initially were cancer-free. We extracted information on background factors (e.g., age, gender, fat consumption), whether they ever experienced LTE, HRV and cancer diagnosis as reported by patients in annual clinic visits. HRV was derived from brief ECGs. Results: Of the full sample, 1011 people developed cancer during a follow-up. In the full sample, LTE significantly predicted cancer development (R.R = 1.063 p < .01) and HRV significantly predicted a reduced risk of cancer development (R.R = .506 p <.001). Importantly, LTE significantly predicted cancer only when HRV was low (R.R = 1.056, 95% CI: 1.007 - 1.108, p < .05) but not when HRV was high (R.R = 1.014; 95% CI: 0.916 - 1.122, p > 0.05), independent of confounders. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study showing in a large sample that LTE predict cancer development, and that this occurs only when vagal nerve activity (HRV) is relatively low. These results could result from lack of vagal modulation of inflammation and also from lack of vagal modulation of stress responses. Results are in line with the cancer-protective role of the vagus. HRV needs to be routinely monitored in the population and future intervention trials need to examine whether vagal nerve activation can prevent cancer in people with LTE and with other cancer risk factors.

Keywords: cancer development, life-events, moderation, vagal nerve

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Authors: Omar Bendjimaa, Karzabi Abdelatif

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Small and medium enterprises have witnessed several developments in recent years thanks to the policies and programs of support given by the state, and that is due to their importance in local and national development. Nevertheless, the success and development of these firms depends on a number of factors, especially the human element, for instance, the culture of the manager has its origin in the culture of the community and is of crucial influence in these firms. In fact, this culture is nothing more than a set of values, perceptions, beliefs, symbols and practices repeated, in addition to the knowledge it has received from the readings and the modern means of education. All these factors have an impact on the effectiveness of governance, its resolutions, instructions and performance of its function as a manager of a medium or small enterprise is inevitably affected by these cultural values, it is the driving force, the leader, and the observer at the same time.

Keywords: small and medium enterprises, the culture of the manager, the culture of the community, values, perceptions, beliefs, symbols, performance

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Authors: Nkemjika Chinenye-Kanu, Mamdud Hossain, Ghazi Droubi

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Prediction of multiphase flow induced forces, void fraction and pressure is crucial at both design and operating stages of practical energy and process pipe systems. In this study, transient numerical simulations of upward slug-churn flow through a vertical 90-degree elbow have been conducted. The volume of fluid (VOF) method was used to model the two-phase flows while the K-epsilon Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were used to model turbulence in the flows. The simulation results were validated using experimental results. Void fraction signal, peak frequency and maximum magnitude of void fraction fluctuation of the slug-churn flow validation case studies compared well with experimental results. The x and y direction force fluctuation signals at the elbow control volume were obtained by carrying out force balance calculations using the directly extracted time domain signals of flow properties through the control volume in the numerical simulation. The computed force signal compared well with experiment for the slug and churn flow validation case studies. Hence, the present numerical simulation technique was able to predict the behaviours of the one-way flow induced forces and void fraction fluctuations.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow induced vibration, slug-churn flow, void fraction and force fluctuation

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

Abstract:

The purposes of this research were to develop and to monitor the antecedent factors which directly affected the success rate of new product development. This was a case study of the leather industry in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 350 leather factories were used as a sample group. The findings revealed that the new product development model was harmonized with the empirical data at the acceptable level, the statistic values are: x^2=6.45, df= 7, p-value = .48856; RMSEA = .000; RMR = .0029; AGFI = .98; GFI = 1.00. The independent variable that directly influenced the dependent variable at the highest level was marketing outcome which had a influence coefficient at 0.32 and the independent variables that indirectly influenced the dependent variables at the highest level was a clear organization policy which had a influence coefficient at 0.17, whereas, all independent variables can predict the model at 48 percent.

Keywords: antecedent, new product development, leather industry, Thailand

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Authors: Mohd Asrul Affendi Bi Abdullah, Nyi Nyi Naing

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to identify comparable manner between negative binomial death rate (NBDR) and zero inflated negative binomial death rate (ZINBDR) with died patients with (HIV + T B+) and (HIV + T B−). HIV and TB is a serious world wide problem in the developing country. Data were analyzed with applying NBDR and ZINBDR to make comparison which a favorable model is better to used. The ZINBDR model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NBDR model. Hence, as a results ZINBDR model is a superior fit to the data than the NBDR model and provides additional information regarding the died mechanisms HIV+TB. The ZINBDR model is shown to be a use tool for analysis death rate according age categorical.

Keywords: zero inflated negative binomial death rate, HIV and TB, AIC and BIC, death rate

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Authors: Arakelian Vigen, Geng Jing, Le Baron Jean-Paul

Abstract:

The paper deals with the design of parallel manipulators with balanced inertia forces and moments. The balancing of the resultant of the inertia forces of 3-RRR planar parallel manipulators is carried out through mass redistribution and centre of mass acceleration minimization. The proposed balancing technique is achieved in two steps: at first, optimal redistribution of the masses of input links is accomplished, which ensures the similarity of the end-effector trajectory and the manipulator’s common centre of mass trajectory, then, optimal trajectory planning of the end-effector by 'bang-bang' profile is reached. In such a way, the minimization of the magnitude of the acceleration of the centre of mass of the manipulator brings about a minimization of shaking force. To minimize the resultant of the inertia moments (shaking moment), the active balancing via inertia flywheel is applied. However, in this case, the active balancing is quite different from previous applications because it provides only a partial cancellation of the shaking moment due to the incomplete balancing of shaking force.

Keywords: dynamic balancing, inertia force minimization, inertia moment minimization, 3-RRR planar parallel manipulator

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Authors: Gelacio JuáRez-Luna, Daniel Enrique GonzáLez-RamíRez, Enrique Tenorio-Montero

Abstract:

Frame elements coupled with springs elements are used for modelling the development of hinges in segmented tunnels, the spring elements modelled the rotational, transversal and axial failure. These spring elements are equipped with constitutive models to include independently the moment, shear force and axial force, respectively. These constitutive models are formulated based on damage mechanics and experimental test reported in the literature review. The mesh of the segmented tunnels was discretized in the software GID, and the nonlinear analyses were carried out in the finite element software ANSYS. These analyses provide the capacity curve of the primary and secondary lining of a segmented tunnel. Two numerical examples of segmented tunnels show the capability of the spring elements to release energy by the development of hinges. The first example is a segmental concrete lining discretized with frame elements loaded until hinges occurred in the lining. The second example is a tunnel with primary and secondary lining, discretized with a double ring frame model. The outer ring simulates the segmental concrete lining and the inner ring simulates the secondary cast-in-place concrete lining. Spring elements also modelled the joints between the segments in the circumferential direction and the ring joints, which connect parallel adjacent rings. The computed load vs displacement curves are congruent with numerical and experimental results reported in the literature review. It is shown that the modelling of a tunnel with primary and secondary lining with frame elements and springs provides reasonable results and save computational cost, comparing with 2D or 3D models equipped with smeared crack models.

Keywords: damage, hinges, lining, tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 390