Search results for: markov renewal
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 400

Search results for: markov renewal

40 Adaption to Climate Change as a Challenge for the Manufacturing Industry: Finding Business Strategies by Game-Based Learning

Authors: Jan Schmitt, Sophie Fischer

Abstract:

After the Corona pandemic, climate change is a further, long-lasting challenge the society must deal with. An ongoing climate change need to be prevented. Nevertheless, the adoption tothe already changed climate conditionshas to be focused in many sectors. Recently, the decisive role of the economic sector with high value added can be seen in the Corona crisis. Hence, manufacturing industry as such a sector, needs to be prepared for climate change and adaption. Several examples from the manufacturing industry show the importance of a strategic effort in this field: The outsourcing of a major parts of the value chain to suppliers in other countries and optimizing procurement logistics in a time-, storage- and cost-efficient manner within a network of global value creation, can lead vulnerable impacts due to climate-related disruptions. E.g. the total damage costs after the 2011 flood disaster in Thailand, including costs for delivery failures, were estimated at 45 billion US dollars worldwide. German car manufacturers were also affected by supply bottlenecks andhave close its plant in Thailand for a short time. Another OEM must reduce the production output. In this contribution, a game-based learning approach is presented, which should enable manufacturing companies to derive their own strategies for climate adaption out of a mix of different actions. Based on data from a regional study of small, medium and large manufacturing companies in Mainfranken, a strongly industrialized region of northern Bavaria (Germany) the game-based learning approach is designed. Out of this, the actual state of efforts due to climate adaption is evaluated. First, the results are used to collect single actions for manufacturing companies and second, further actions can be identified. Then, a variety of climate adaption activities can be clustered according to the scope of activity of the company. The combination of different actions e.g. the renewal of the building envelope with regard to thermal insulation, its benefits and drawbacks leads to a specific strategy for climate adaption for each company. Within the game-based approach, the players take on different roles in a fictionalcompany and discuss the order and the characteristics of each action taken into their climate adaption strategy. Different indicators such as economic, ecologic and stakeholder satisfaction compare the success of the respective measures in a competitive format with other virtual companies deriving their own strategy. A "play through" climate change scenarios with targeted adaptation actions illustrate the impact of different actions and their combination onthefictional company.

Keywords: business strategy, climate change, climate adaption, game-based learning

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39 Weed Out the Bad Seeds: The Impact of Strategic Portfolio Management on Patent Quality

Authors: A. Lefebre, M. Willekens, K. Debackere

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Since the 1990s, patent applications have been booming, especially in the field of telecommunications. However, this increase in patent filings has been associated with an (alleged) decrease in patent quality. The plethora of low-quality patents devalues the high-quality ones, thus weakening the incentives for inventors to patent inventions. Despite the rich literature on strategic patenting, previous research has neglected to emphasize the importance of patent portfolio management and its impact on patent quality. In this paper, we compare related patent portfolios vs. nonrelated patents and investigate whether the patent quality and innovativeness differ between the two types. In the analyses, patent quality is proxied by five individual proxies (number of inventors, claims, renewal years, designated states, and grant lag), and these proxies are then aggregated into a quality index. Innovativeness is proxied by two measures: the originality and radicalness index. Results suggest that related patent portfolios have, on average, a lower patent quality compared to nonrelated patents, thus suggesting that firms use them for strategic purposes rather than for the extended protection they could offer. Even upon testing the individual proxies as a dependent variable, we find evidence that related patent portfolios are of lower quality compared to nonrelated patents, although not all results show significant coefficients. Furthermore, these proxies provide evidence of the importance of adding fixed effects to the model. Since prior research has found that these proxies are inherently flawed and never fully capture the concept of patent quality, we have chosen to run the analyses with individual proxies as supplementary analyses; however, we stick with the comprehensive index as our main model. This ensures that the results are not dependent upon one certain proxy but allows for multiple views of the concept. The presence of divisional applications might be linked to the level of innovativeness of the underlying invention. It could be the case that the parent application is so important that firms are going through the administrative burden of filing for divisional applications to ensure the protection of the invention and the preemption of competition. However, it could also be the case that the preempting is a result of divisional applications being used strategically as a backup plan and prolonging strategy, thus negatively impacting the innovation in the portfolio. Upon testing the level of novelty and innovation in the related patent portfolios by means of the originality and radicalness index, we find evidence for a significant negative association with related patent portfolios. The minimum innovation that has been brought on by the patents in the related patent portfolio is lower compared to the minimum innovation that can be found in nonrelated portfolios, providing evidence for the second argument.

Keywords: patent portfolio management, patent quality, related patent portfolios, strategic patenting

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38 Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach for Trading Automation in The Stock Market

Authors: Taylan Kabbani, Ekrem Duman

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The design of adaptive systems that take advantage of financial markets while reducing the risk can bring more stagnant wealth into the global market. However, most efforts made to generate successful deals in trading financial assets rely on Supervised Learning (SL), which suffered from various limitations. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers to solve these drawbacks of SL approaches by combining the financial assets price "prediction" step and the "allocation" step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with its environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. In this paper, a continuous action space approach is adopted to give the trading agent the ability to gradually adjust the portfolio's positions with each time step (dynamically re-allocate investments), resulting in better agent-environment interaction and faster convergence of the learning process. In addition, the approach supports the managing of a portfolio with several assets instead of a single one. This work represents a novel DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem, or what is referred to as The Agent Environment as Partially observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. More specifically, we design an environment that simulates the real-world trading process by augmenting the state representation with ten different technical indicators and sentiment analysis of news articles for each stock. We then solve the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, which can learn policies in high-dimensional and continuous action spaces like those typically found in the stock market environment. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of deep reinforcement learning in financial markets over other types of machine learning such as supervised learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

Keywords: the stock market, deep reinforcement learning, MDP, twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient, sentiment analysis, technical indicators, autonomous agent

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37 The Performance Evaluation of the Modular Design of Hybrid Wall with Surface Heating and Cooling System

Authors: Selcen Nur Eri̇kci̇ Çeli̇k, Burcu İbaş Parlakyildiz, Gülay Zorer Gedi̇k

Abstract:

Reducing the use of mechanical heating and cooling systems in buildings, which accounts for approximately 30-40% of total energy consumption in the world has a major impact in terms of energy conservation. Formations of buildings that have sustainable and low energy utilization, structural elements with mechanical systems should be evaluated with a holistic approach. In point of reduction of building energy consumption ratio, wall elements that are vertical building elements and have an area broadly (m2) have proposed as a regulation with a different system. In the study, designing surface heating and cooling energy with a hybrid type of modular wall system and the integration of building elements will be evaluated. The design of wall element; - Identification of certain standards in terms of architectural design and size, -Elaboration according to the area where the wall elements (interior walls, exterior walls) -Solution of the joints, -Obtaining the surface in terms of building compatible with both conceptual structural put emphasis on upper stages, these elements will be formed. The durability of the product to the various forces, stability and resistance are so much substantial that are used the establishment of ready-wall element section and the planning of structural design. All created ready-wall alternatives will be paid attention at some parameters; such as adapting to performance-cost by optimum level and size that can be easily processed and reached. The restrictions such as the size of the zoning regulations, building function, structural system, wheelbase that are imposed by building laws, should be evaluated. The building aims to intend to function according to a certain standardization system and construction of wall elements will be used. The scope of performance criteria determined on the wall elements, utilization (operation, maintenance) and renovation phase, alternative material options will be evaluated with interim materials located in the contents. Design, implementation and technical combination of modular wall elements in the use phase and installation details together with the integration of energy saving, heat-saving and useful effects on the environmental aspects will be discussed in detail. As a result, the ready-wall product with surface heating and cooling modules will be created and defined as hybrid wall and will be compared with the conventional system in terms of thermal comfort. After preliminary architectural evaluations, certain decisions for all architectural design processes (pre and post design) such as the implementation and performance in use, maintenance, renewal will be evaluated in the results.

Keywords: modular ready-wall element, hybrid, architectural design, thermal comfort, energy saving

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36 Argos System: Improvements and Future of the Constellation

Authors: Sophie Baudel, Aline Duplaa, Jean Muller, Stephan Lauriol, Yann Bernard

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Argos is the main satellite telemetry system used by the wildlife research community, since its creation in 1978, for animal tracking and scientific data collection all around the world, to analyze and understand animal migrations and behavior. The marine mammals' biology is one of the major disciplines which had benefited from Argos telemetry, and conversely, marine mammals biologists’ community has contributed a lot to the growth and development of Argos use cases. The Argos constellation with 6 satellites in orbit in 2017 (Argos 2 payload on NOAA 15, NOAA 18, Argos 3 payload on NOAA 19, SARAL, METOP A and METOP B) is being extended in the following years with Argos 3 payload on METOP C (launch in October 2018), and Argos 4 payloads on Oceansat 3 (launch in 2019), CDARS in December 2021 (to be confirmed), METOP SG B1 in December 2022, and METOP-SG-B2 in 2029. Argos 4 will allow more frequency bands (600 kHz for Argos4NG, instead of 110 kHz for Argos 3), new modulation dedicated to animal (sea turtle) tracking allowing very low transmission power transmitters (50 to 100mW), with very low data rates (124 bps), enhancement of high data rates (1200-4800 bps), and downlink performance, at the whole contribution to enhance the system capacity (50,000 active beacons per month instead of 20,000 today). In parallel of this ‘institutional Argos’ constellation, in the context of a miniaturization trend in the spatial industry in order to reduce the costs and multiply the satellites to serve more and more societal needs, the French Space Agency CNES, which designs the Argos payloads, is innovating and launching the Argos ANGELS project (Argos NEO Generic Economic Light Satellites). ANGELS will lead to a nanosatellite prototype with an Argos NEO instrument (30 cm x 30 cm x 20cm) that will be launched in 2019. In the meantime, the design of the renewal of the Argos constellation, called Argos For Next Generations (Argos4NG), is on track and will be operational in 2022. Based on Argos 4 and benefitting of the feedback from ANGELS project, this constellation will allow revisiting time of fewer than 20 minutes in average between two satellite passes, and will also bring more frequency bands to improve the overall capacity of the system. The presentation will then be an overview of the Argos system, present and future and new capacities coming with it. On top of that, use cases of two Argos hardware modules will be presented: the goniometer pathfinder allowing recovering Argos beacons at sea or on the ground in a 100 km radius horizon-free circle around the beacon location and the new Argos 4 chipset called ‘Artic’, already available and tested by several manufacturers.

Keywords: Argos satellite telemetry, marine protected areas, oceanography, maritime services

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35 Computerized Scoring System: A Stethoscope to Understand Consumer's Emotion through His or Her Feedback

Authors: Chen Yang, Jun Hu, Ping Li, Lili Xue

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Most companies pay careful attention to consumer feedback collection, so it is popular to find the ‘feedback’ button of all kinds of mobile apps. Yet it is much more changeling to analyze these feedback texts and to catch the true feelings of a consumer regarding either a problem or a complimentary of consumers who hands out the feedback. Especially to the Chinese content, it is possible that; in one context the Chinese feedback expresses positive feedback, but in the other context, the same Chinese feedback may be a negative one. For example, in Chinese, the feedback 'operating with loudness' works well with both refrigerator and stereo system. Apparently, this feedback towards a refrigerator shows negative feedback; however, the same feedback is positive towards a stereo system. By introducing Bradley, M. and Lang, P.'s Affective Norms for English Text (ANET) theory and Bucci W.’s Referential Activity (RA) theory, we, usability researchers at Pingan, are able to decipher the feedback and to find the hidden feelings behind the content. We subtract 2 disciplines ‘valence’ and ‘dominance’ out of 3 of ANET and 2 disciplines ‘concreteness’ and ‘specificity’ out of 4 of RA to organize our own rating system with a scale of 1 to 5 points. This rating system enables us to judge the feelings/emotion behind each feedback, and it works well with both single word/phrase and a whole paragraph. The result of the rating reflects the strength of the feeling/emotion of the consumer when he/she is typing the feedback. In our daily work, we first require a consumer to answer the net promoter score (NPS) before writing the feedback, so we can determine the feedback is positive or negative. Secondly, we code the feedback content according to company problematic list, which contains 200 problematic items. In this way, we are able to collect the data that how many feedbacks left by the consumer belong to one typical problem. Thirdly, we rate each feedback based on the rating system mentioned above to illustrate the strength of the feeling/emotion when our consumer writes the feedback. In this way, we actually obtain two kinds of data 1) the portion, which means how many feedbacks are ascribed into one problematic item and 2) the severity, how strong the negative feeling/emotion is when the consumer is writing this feedback. By crossing these two, and introducing the portion into X-axis and severity into Y-axis, we are able to find which typical problem gets the high score in both portion and severity. The higher the score of a problem has, the more urgent a problem is supposed to be solved as it means more people write stronger negative feelings in feedbacks regarding this problem. Moreover, by introducing hidden Markov model to program our rating system, we are able to computerize the scoring system and are able to process thousands of feedback in a short period of time, which is efficient and accurate enough for the industrial purpose.

Keywords: computerized scoring system, feeling/emotion of consumer feedback, referential activity, text mining

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34 Molecular Detection of mRNA bcr-abl and Circulating Leukemic Stem Cells CD34+ in Patients with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and Chronic Myeloid Leukemia and Its Association with Clinical Parameters

Authors: B. Gonzalez-Yebra, H. Barajas, P. Palomares, M. Hernandez, O. Torres, M. Ayala, A. L. González, G. Vazquez-Ortiz, M. L. Guzman

Abstract:

Leukemia arises by molecular alterations of the normal hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transforming it into a leukemic stem cell (LSC) with high cell proliferation, self-renewal, and cell differentiation. Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) originates from an LSC-leading to elevated proliferation of myeloid cells and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) originates from an LSC development leading to elevated proliferation of lymphoid cells. In both cases, LSC can be identified by multicolor flow cytometry using several antibodies. However, to date, LSC levels in peripheral blood (PB) are not established well enough in ALL and CML patients. On the other hand, the detection of the minimal residue disease (MRD) in leukemia is mainly based on the identification of the mRNA bcr-abl gene in CML patients and some other genes in ALL patients. There is no a properly biomarker to detect MDR in both types of leukemia. The objective of this study was to determine mRNA bcr-abl and the percentage of LSC in peripheral blood of patients with CML and ALL and identify a possible association between the amount of LSC in PB and clinical data. We included in this study 19 patients with Leukemia. A PB sample was collected per patient and leukocytes were obtained by Ficoll gradient. The immunophenotype for LSC CD34+ was done by flow cytometry analysis with CD33, CD2, CD14, CD16, CD64, HLA-DR, CD13, CD15, CD19, CD10, CD20, CD34, CD38, CD71, CD90, CD117, CD123 monoclonal antibodies. In addition, to identify the presence of the mRNA bcr-abl by RT-PCR, the RNA was isolated using TRIZOL reagent. Molecular (presence of mRNA bcr-abl and LSC CD34+) and clinical results were analyzed with descriptive statistics and a multiple regression analysis was performed to determine statistically significant association. In total, 19 patients (8 patients with ALL and 11 patients with CML) were analyzed, 9 patients with de novo leukemia (ALL = 6 and CML = 3) and 10 under treatment (ALL = 5 and CML = 5). The overall frequency of mRNA bcr-abl was 31% (6/19), and it was negative in ALL patients and positive in 80% in CML patients. On the other hand, LSC was determined in 16/19 leukemia patients (%LSC= 0.02-17.3). The Novo patients had higher percentage of LSC (0.26 to 17.3%) than patients under treatment (0 to 5.93%). The amount of LSC was significantly associated with the amount of LSC were: absence of treatment, the absence of splenomegaly, and a lower number of leukocytes, negative association for the clinical variables age, sex, blasts, and mRNA bcr-abl. In conclusion, patients with de novo leukemia had a higher percentage of circulating LSC than patients under treatment, and it was associated with clinical parameters as lack of treatment, absence of splenomegaly and a lower number of leukocytes. The mRNA bcr-abl detection was only possible in the series of patients with CML, and molecular detection of LSC could be identified in the peripheral blood of all leukemia patients, we believe the identification of circulating LSC may be used as biomarker for the detection of the MRD in leukemia patients.

Keywords: stem cells, leukemia, biomarkers, flow cytometry

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33 Bituminous Geomembranes: Sustainable Products for Road Construction and Maintenance

Authors: Ines Antunes, Andrea Massari, Concetta Bartucca

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Greenhouse gasses (GHG) role in the atmosphere has been well known since the 19th century; however, researchers have begun to relate them to climate changes only in the second half of the following century. From this moment, scientists started to correlate the presence of GHG such as CO₂ with the global warming phenomena. This has raised the awareness not only of those who were experts in this field but also of public opinion, which is becoming more and more sensitive to environmental pollution and sustainability issues. Nowadays the reduction of GHG emissions is one of the principal objectives of EU nations. The target is an 80% reduction of emissions in 2050 and to reach the important goal of carbon neutrality. Road sector is responsible for an important amount of those emissions (about 20%). The most part is due to traffic, but a good contribution is also given directly or indirectly from road construction and maintenance. Raw material choice and reuse of post-consumer plastic rather than a cleverer design of roads have an important contribution to reducing carbon footprint. Bituminous membranes can be successfully used as reinforcement systems in asphalt layers to improve road pavement performance against cracking. Composite materials coupling membranes with grids and/or fabrics should be able to combine improved tensile properties of the reinforcement with stress absorbing and waterproofing effects of membranes. Polyglass, with its brand dedicated to road construction and maintenance called Polystrada, has done more than this. The company's target was not only to focus sustainability on the final application but also to implement a greener mentality from the cradle to the grave. Starting from production, Polyglass has made important improvements finalized to increase efficiency and minimize waste. The installation of a trigeneration plant and the usage of selected production scraps inside the products as well as the reduction of emissions into the environment, are one of the main efforts of the company to reduce impact during final product build-up. Moreover, the benefit given by installing Polystrada products brings a significant improvement in road lifetime. This has an impact not only on the number of maintenance or renewal that needs to be done (build less) but also on traffic density due to works and road deviation in case of operations. During the end of the life of a road, Polystrada products can be 100% recycled and milled with classical systems used without changing the normal maintenance procedures. In this work, all these contributions were quantified in terms of CO₂ emission thanks to an LCA analysis. The data obtained were compared with a classical system or a standard production of a membrane. What it is possible to see is that the usage of Polyglass products for street maintenance and building gives a significant reduction of emissions in case of membrane installation under the road wearing course.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, LCA, maintenance, sustainability

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32 The Importance of Urban Pattern and Planting Design in Urban Transformation Projects

Authors: Mustafa Var, Yasin Kültiğin Yaman, Elif Berna Var, Müberra Pulatkan

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This study deals with real application of an urban transformation project in Trabzon, Turkey. It aims to highlight the significance of using native species in terms of planting design of transformation projects which will also promote sustainability of urban identity. Urban identity is a phenomenon shaped not only by physical, but also by natural, spatial, social, historical and cultural factors. Urban areas face with continuous change which can be whether positive or negative way. If it occurs in a negative way that may have some destructive effects on urban identity. To solve this problematic issue, urban renewal movements initally started after 1840s around the world especially in the cities with ports. This process later followed by the places where people suffered a lot from fires and has expanded to all over the world. In Turkey, those processes have been experienced mostly after 1980s as country experienced the worst effects of unplanned urbanization especially in 1950-1990 period. Also old squares, streets, meeting points, green areas, Ottoman bazaars have changed slowly. This change was resulted in alienation of inhabitants to their environments. As a solution, several actions were taken like Mass Housing Laws which was enacted in 1981 and 1984 or urban transformation projects. Although projects between 1990-2000 were tried to satisfy the expectations of local inhabitants by the help of several design solutions to promote cultural identity; unfortunately those modern projects has also been resulted in alienation of urban environments to the inhabitants. Those projects were initially done by TOKI (Housing Development Administration of Turkey) and later followed by the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization after 2011. Although they had significant potentials to create healthy urban environments, they could not use this opportunity in an effective way. The reason for their failure is that their architectural styles and planting designs are unrespectful to local identity and environments. Generally, it can be said that the most of the urban transformation projects implementing in Turkey nearly have no concerns about the locality. However, those projects can be used as a positive tool for enhanching the urban identity of cities by means of local planting material. For instance, Kyoto can be identified by Japanese Maple trees or Seattle can be specified by Dahlia. In the same way, in Turkey, Istanbul city can be identified by Judas and Stone Pine trees or Giresun city can be identified by Cherry trees. Thus, in this paper, the importance of conserving urban identity is discussed specificly with the help of using local planting elements. After revealing the mistakes that are made during urban transformation projects, the techniques and design criterias for preserving and promoting urban identity are examined. In the end, it is emphasized that every city should have their own original, local character and specific planting design which can be used for highlighting its identity as well as architectural elements.

Keywords: urban identity, urban transformation, planting design, landscape architecture

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31 Seismic Reinforcement of Existing Japanese Wooden Houses Using Folded Exterior Thin Steel Plates

Authors: Jiro Takagi

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Approximately 90 percent of the casualties in the near-fault-type Kobe earthquake in 1995 resulted from the collapse of wooden houses, although a limited number of collapses of this type of building were reported in the more recent off-shore-type Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 (excluding direct damage by the Tsunami). Kumamoto earthquake in 2016 also revealed the vulnerability of old wooden houses in Japan. There are approximately 24.5 million wooden houses in Japan and roughly 40 percent of them are considered to have the inadequate seismic-resisting capacity. Therefore, seismic strengthening of these wooden houses is an urgent task. However, it has not been quickly done for various reasons, including cost and inconvenience during the reinforcing work. Residents typically spend their money on improvements that more directly affect their daily housing environment (such as interior renovation, equipment renewal, and placement of thermal insulation) rather than on strengthening against extremely rare events such as large earthquakes. Considering this tendency of residents, a new approach to developing a seismic strengthening method for wooden houses is needed. The seismic reinforcement method developed in this research uses folded galvanized thin steel plates as both shear walls and the new exterior architectural finish. The existing finish is not removed. Because galvanized steel plates are aesthetic and durable, they are commonly used in modern Japanese buildings on roofs and walls. Residents could feel a physical change through the reinforcement, covering existing exterior walls with steel plates. Also, this exterior reinforcement can be installed with only outdoor work, thereby reducing inconvenience for residents since they would not be required to move out temporarily during construction. The Durability of the exterior is enhanced, and the reinforcing work can be done efficiently since perfect water protection is not required for the new finish. In this method, the entire exterior surface would function as shear walls and thus the pull-out force induced by seismic lateral load would be significantly reduced as compared with a typical reinforcement scheme of adding braces in selected frames. Consequently, reinforcing details of anchors to the foundations would be less difficult. In order to attach the exterior galvanized thin steel plates to the houses, new wooden beams are placed next to the existing beams. In this research, steel connections between the existing and new beams are developed, which contain a gap for the existing finish between the two beams. The thin steel plates are screwed to the new beams and the connecting vertical members. The seismic-resisting performance of the shear walls with thin steel plates is experimentally verified both for the frames and connections. It is confirmed that the performance is high enough for bracing general wooden houses.

Keywords: experiment, seismic reinforcement, thin steel plates, wooden houses

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30 Structure Clustering for Milestoning Applications of Complex Conformational Transitions

Authors: Amani Tahat, Serdal Kirmizialtin

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Trajectory fragment methods such as Markov State Models (MSM), Milestoning (MS) and Transition Path sampling are the prime choice of extending the timescale of all atom Molecular Dynamics simulations. In these approaches, a set of structures that covers the accessible phase space has to be chosen a priori using cluster analysis. Structural clustering serves to partition the conformational state into natural subgroups based on their similarity, an essential statistical methodology that is used for analyzing numerous sets of empirical data produced by Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. Local transition kernel among these clusters later used to connect the metastable states using a Markovian kinetic model in MSM and a non-Markovian model in MS. The choice of clustering approach in constructing such kernel is crucial since the high dimensionality of the biomolecular structures might easily confuse the identification of clusters when using the traditional hierarchical clustering methodology. Of particular interest, in the case of MS where the milestones are very close to each other, accurate determination of the milestone identity of the trajectory becomes a challenging issue. Throughout this work we present two cluster analysis methods applied to the cis–trans isomerism of dinucleotide AA. The choice of nucleic acids to commonly used proteins to study the cluster analysis is two fold: i) the energy landscape is rugged; hence transitions are more complex, enabling a more realistic model to study conformational transitions, ii) Nucleic acids conformational space is high dimensional. A diverse set of internal coordinates is necessary to describe the metastable states in nucleic acids, posing a challenge in studying the conformational transitions. Herein, we need improved clustering methods that accurately identify the AA structure in its metastable states in a robust way for a wide range of confused data conditions. The single linkage approach of the hierarchical clustering available in GROMACS MD-package is the first clustering methodology applied to our data. Self Organizing Map (SOM) neural network, that also known as a Kohonen network, is the second data clustering methodology. The performance comparison of the neural network as well as hierarchical clustering method is studied by means of computing the mean first passage times for the cis-trans conformational rates. Our hope is that this study provides insight into the complexities and need in determining the appropriate clustering algorithm for kinetic analysis. Our results can improve the effectiveness of decisions based on clustering confused empirical data in studying conformational transitions in biomolecules.

Keywords: milestoning, self organizing map, single linkage, structure clustering

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29 Ecosystem Approach in Aquaculture: From Experimental Recirculating Multi-Trophic Aquaculture to Operational System in Marsh Ponds

Authors: R. Simide, T. Miard

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Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) is used to reduce waste from aquaculture and increase productivity by co-cultured species. In this study, we designed a recirculating multi-trophic aquaculture system which requires low energy consumption, low water renewal and easy-care. European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) were raised with co-cultured sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus), deteritivorous polychaete fed on settled particulate matter, mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) used to extract suspended matters, macroalgae (Ulva sp.) used to uptake dissolved nutrients and gastropod (Phorcus turbinatus) used to clean the series of 4 tanks from fouling. Experiment was performed in triplicate during one month in autumn under an experimental greenhouse at the Institute Océanographique Paul Ricard (IOPR). Thanks to the absence of a physical filter, any pomp was needed to pressure water and the water flow was carried out by a single air-lift followed by gravity flow.Total suspended solids (TSS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), turbidity, phytoplankton estimation and dissolved nutrients (ammonium NH₄, nitrite NO₂⁻, nitrate NO₃⁻ and phosphorus PO₄³⁻) were measured weekly while dissolved oxygen and pH were continuously recorded. Dissolved nutrients stay under the detectable threshold during the experiment. BOD5 decreased between fish and macroalgae tanks. TSS highly increased after 2 weeks and then decreased at the end of the experiment. Those results show that bioremediation can be well used for aquaculture system to keep optimum growing conditions. Fish were the only feeding species by an external product (commercial fish pellet) in the system. The others species (extractive species) were fed from waste streams from the tank above or from Ulva produced by the system for the sea urchin. In this way, between the fish aquaculture only and the addition of the extractive species, the biomass productivity increase by 5.7. In other words, the food conversion ratio dropped from 1.08 with fish only to 0.189 including all species. This experimental recirculating multi-trophic aquaculture system was efficient enough to reduce waste and increase productivity. In a second time, this technology has been reproduced at a commercial scale. The IOPR in collaboration with Les 4 Marais company run for 6 month a recirculating IMTA in 8000 m² of water allocate between 4 marsh ponds. A similar air-lift and gravity recirculating system was design and only one feeding species of shrimp (Palaemon sp.) was growth for 3 extractive species. Thanks to this joint work at the laboratory and commercial scales we will be able to challenge IMTA system and discuss about this sustainable aquaculture technology.

Keywords: bioremediation, integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA), laboratory and commercial scales, recirculating aquaculture, sustainable

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28 Water Infrastructure Asset Management: A Comparative Analysis of Three Urban Water Utilities in South Africa

Authors: Elkington S. Mnguni

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Water and sanitation services in South Africa are characterized by both achievements and challenges. After the end of apartheid in 1994 the newly elected government faced the challenge of eradicating backlogs with respect to access to basic services, including water and sanitation. Capital investment made in the development of new water and sanitation infrastructure to provide basic services to previously disadvantaged communities has grown, to a certain extent, at the expense of investment in the operation and maintenance of new and existing infrastructure. Challenges resulting from aging infrastructure and poor plant performance highlight the need for investing in the maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement of existing infrastructure to optimize the return on investment. Advanced water infrastructure asset management (IAM) is key to achieving adequate levels of service, particularly with regard to reliable and high quality drinking water supply, prevention of urban flooding, efficient use of natural resources and prevention of pollution and associated risks. Against this backdrop, this paper presents an appraisal of water and sanitation IAM systems in South Africa’s three utilities, being metropolitan cities in the Gauteng Province. About a quarter of the national population lives in the three rapidly urbanizing cities of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, located in a semi-arid region. A literature review has been done and field visits to some of the utility facilities are being conducted. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with the three utilities. The following critical factors are being analysed in terms of compliance with the national Water Services IAM Strategy (2011) and other applicable legislation: asset registers; capacity of assets; current and predicted demand; funding availability / budget allocations; plans: operation & maintenance, renewal & replacement, and risk management; no-drop status (non-revenue water levels); blue drop status (water quality); green drop status (effluent quality); and skills availability. Some of the key challenges identified in the literature review include: funding constraints, Skills shortage, and wastewater treatment plants operating beyond their design capacities. These challenges will be verified during field visits and research interviews. Gaps between literature and practice will be identified and relevant recommendations made if necessary. The objective of this study is to contribute to the resolution of the challenges brought about by the backlogs in the operation and maintenance of water and sanitation assets in the country in general, and in the three cities in particular, thus improving the sustainability thereof.

Keywords: asset management, backlogs, levels of service, sustainability, water and sanitation infrastructure

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27 Risk Assessment of Flood Defences by Utilising Condition Grade Based Probabilistic Approach

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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26 The Women’s Empowerment and Children’s Bell-Being in Italy: An Empirical Research Starting From the Capability Approach

Authors: Alba Francesca Canta

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The present is one of those times when what normally seems to constitute a reason for living vanishes, particularly in times of crisis, during which certainties of all times crumble, and critical issues emerge, especially in already problematic areas such as the role of women and children. This paper aims to explore the issue of gender and highlight the importance of education for people’s development and well-being. The study is part of the broader framework of the capability approach, a multidimensional approach based on the need to consider a person’s wealth by virtue of their opportunity and freedom to live a ‘life of worth. The results of empirical research conducted in 2020 will be presented, the main objective of which was to measure, through qualitative (project techniques, focus groups, interviews with key informants) and quantitative (questionnaire) methods, the level of empowerment of women in two Italian territories and the consequent well-being of their children. By means of the relationship study, the present research results show that a higher level of women’s empowerment corresponds to a higher level of children’s well-being in a positive virtuous process. The opportunity structure and education are the main driving guide both to women’s empowerment and children’s well-being, emphasizing the importance of education to gender culture as a key factor for the development of the whole society. Among all the traumatic events that broke the harmony of the world and caused an abrupt turn in all areas of society, the crisis of democracy and education are some of the harshest. Nevertheless, education continues to be a fundamental pillar of Global Development Agendas, and above all, democratic education is the main factor in the development of a generative society, capable of forming people who know how to live in society. In this context, recovering democratic and inclusive education can be the key to a breakthrough. In the capability approach Sen, and other Scholars, point out education from two different perspectives: a. education as a fundamental right capable of influencing other real fields of people’s life (i.e., being educated to prevent illness, to vote, etc.) and b. spread communitarian education, tolerance, inclusive, democratic, and respectful, capable of forming human beings. This kind of educational system can directly lead to a general process of gender education that presupposes respect for essential principles: equality, uniqueness, and the participation of all in the processes of defining a democratic society. Many practices of women and children’s exclusions essentially derive from social factors (norms, values, quality of institutions, relations of power, educational and cultural practices) that can build strong barriers. Respect for these principles and education for gender culture could foster the renewal of society and the acquisition of fundamental skills for a generative and inclusive society, such as critical skills, cosmopolitan skills, and narrative imagination.

Keywords: capability approach, children’s well-being, education, women’s empowerment

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25 Network Impact of a Social Innovation Initiative in Rural Areas of Southern Italy

Authors: A. M. Andriano, M. Lombardi, A. Lopolito, M. Prosperi, A. Stasi, E. Iannuzzi

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In according to the scientific debate on the definition of Social Innovation (SI), the present paper identifies SI as new ideas (products, services, and models) that simultaneously meet social needs and create new social relationships or collaborations. This concept offers important tools to unravel the difficult condition for the agricultural sector in marginalized areas, characterized by the abandonment of activities, low level of farmer education, and low generational renewal, hampering new territorial strategies addressed at and integrated and sustainable development. Models of SI in agriculture, starting from bottom up approach or from the community, are considered to represent the driving force of an ecological and digital revolution. A system based on SI may be able to grasp and satisfy individual and social needs and to promote new forms of entrepreneurship. In this context, Vazapp ('Go Hoeing') is an emerging SI model in southern Italy that promotes solutions for satisfying needs of farmers and facilitates their relationships (creation of network). The Vazapp’s initiative, considered in this study, is the Contadinners ('Farmer’s dinners'), a dinner held at farmer’s house where stakeholders living in the surrounding area know each other and are able to build a network for possible future professional collaborations. The aim of the paper is to identify the evolution of farmers’ relationships, both quantitatively and qualitatively, because of the Contadinner’s initiative organized by Vazapp. To this end, the study adopts the Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology by using UCINET (Version 6.667) software to analyze the relational structure. Data collection was realized through a questionnaire distributed to 387 participants in the twenty 'Contadinners', held from February 2016 to June 2018. The response rate to the survey was about 50% of farmers. The elaboration data was focused on different aspects, such as: a) the measurement of relational reciprocity among the farmers using the symmetrize method of answers; b) the measurement of the answer reliability using the dichotomize method; c) the description of evolution of social capital using the cohesion method; d) the clustering of the Contadinners' participants in followers and not-followers of Vazapp to evaluate its impact on the local social capital. The results concern the effectiveness of this initiative in generating trustworthy relationships within the rural area of southern Italy, typically affected by individualism and mistrust. The number of relationships represents the quantitative indicator to define the dimension of the network development; while the typologies of relationships (from simple friendship to formal collaborations, for branding new cooperation initiatives) represents the qualitative indicator that offers a diversified perspective of the network impact. From the analysis carried out, Vazapp’s initiative represents surely a virtuous SI model to catalyze the relationships within the rural areas and to develop entrepreneurship based on the real needs of the community.

Keywords:

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24 Phenolic Composition of Wines from Cultivar Carménère during Aging with Inserts to Barrels

Authors: E. Obreque-Slier, P. Osorio-Umaña, G. Vidal-Acevedo, A. Peña-Neira, M. Medel-Marabolí

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Sensory and nutraceutical characteristics of a wine are determined by different chemical compounds, such as organic acids, sugars, alcohols, polysaccharides, aromas, and polyphenols. The polyphenols correspond to secondary metabolites that are associated with the prevention of several pathologies, and those are responsible for color, aroma, bitterness, and astringency in wines. These compounds come from grapes and wood during aging in barrels, which correspond to the format of wood most widely used in wine production. However, the barrels is a high-cost input with a limited useful life (3-4 years). For this reason, some oenological products have been developed in order to renew the barrels and increase their useful life in some years. These formats are being used slowly because limited information exists about the effect on the wine chemical characteristics. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of different laubarrel renewal systems (staves and zigzag) on the polyphenolic characteristics of a Carménère wine (Vitis vinifera), an emblematic cultivar of Chile. For this, a completely randomized experimental design with 5 treatments and three replicates per treatment was used. The treatments were: new barrels (T0), used barrels during 4 years (T1), scraped used barrels (T2), used barrels with staves (T3) and used barrels with zigzag (T4). The study was performed for 12 months, and different spectrophotometric parameters (phenols, anthocyanins, and total tannins) and HPLC-DAD (low molecular weight phenols) were evaluated. The wood inputs were donated by Toneleria Nacional and corresponded to products from the same production batch. The total phenols content increased significantly after 40 days, while the total tannin concentration decreased gradually during the study. The anthocyanin concentration increased after 120 days of the assay in all treatments. Comparatively, it was observed that the wine of T2 presented the lowest values of these polyphenols, while the T0 and T4 presented the highest total phenol contents. Also, T1 presented the highest values of total tannins in relation to the rest of the treatments in some samples. The low molecular weight phenolic compounds identified by HPLC-DAD were 7 flavonoids (epigallocatechin, catechin, procyanidin gallate, epicatechin, quercetin, rutin and myricetin) and 14 non-flavonoids (gallic, protocatechuic, hydroxybenzoic, trans-cutaric, vanillinic, caffeic, syringic, p-coumaric and ellagic acids; tyrosol, vanillin, syringaldehyde, trans-resveratrol and cis-resveratrol). Tyrosol was the most abundant compound, whereas ellagic acid was the lowest in the samples. Comparatively, it was observed that the wines of T2 showed the lowest concentrations of flavonoid and non-flavonoid phenols during the study. In contrast, wines of T1, T3, and T4 presented the highest contents of non-flavonoid polyphenols. In summary, the use of barrel renovators (zig zag and staves) is an interesting alternative which would emulate the contribution of polyphenols from the barrels to the wine.

Keywords: barrels, oak wood aging, polyphenols, red wine

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23 Implementation of International Standards in the Field of Higher Secondary Education in Kerala

Authors: Bernard Morais Joosa

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Kerala, the southern state of India, is known for its accomplishments in universal education and enrollments. Through this mission, the Government proposes comprehensive educational reforms including 1000 Government schools into international standards during the first phase. The idea is not only to improve the infrastructural facilities but also to reform the teaching and learning process to the present day needs by introducing ICT enabled learning and providing smart classrooms. There will be focus on creating educational programmes which are useful for differently abled students. It is also meant to reinforce the teaching–learning process by providing ample opportunities to each student to construct their own knowledge using modern technology tools. The mission will redefine the existing classroom learning process, coordinate resource mobilization efforts and develop ‘Janakeeya Vidyabhyasa Mathruka.' Special packages to support schools which are in existence for over 100 years will also be attempted. The implementation will enlist full involvement and partnership of the Parent Teacher Association. Kerala was the first state in the country to attain 100 percent literacy more than two and a half decades ago. Since then the State has not rested on its laurels. It has moved forward in leaps and bounds conquering targets that no other State could achieve. Now the government of Kerala is taking off towards new goal of comprehensive educational reforms. And it focuses on Betterment of educational surroundings, use of technology in education, renewal of learning method and 1000 schools will be uplifted as Smart Schools. Need to upgrade 1000 schools into international standards and turning classrooms from standard 9 to 12 in high schools and higher secondary into high-tech classrooms and a special unique package for the renovation of schools, which have completed 50 and 100 years. The government intends to focus on developing standards first to eighth standards in tune with the times by engaging the teachers, parents, and alumni to recapture the relevance of public schools. English learning will be encouraged in schools. The idea is not only to improve the infrastructure facilities but also reform the curriculum to the present day needs. Keeping in view the differently-abled friendly approach of the government, there will be focus on creating educational program which is useful for differently abled students. The idea is to address the infrastructural deficiencies being faced by such schools. There will be special emphasis on ensuring internet connectivity to promote IT-friendly existence. A task-force and a full-time chief executive will be in charge of managing the day to day affairs of the mission. Secretary of the Public Education Department will serve as the Mission Secretary and the Chairperson of Task Force. As the Task Force will stress on teacher training and the use of information technology, experts in the field, as well as Directors of SCERT, IT School, SSA, and RMSA, will also be a part of it.

Keywords: educational standards, methodology, pedagogy, technology

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22 Controlling Deforestation in the Densely Populated Region of Central Java Province, Banjarnegara District, Indonesia

Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

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As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

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21 The Challenges of Citizen Engagement in Urban Transformation: Key Learnings from Three European Cities

Authors: Idoia Landa Oregi, Itsaso Gonzalez Ochoantesana, Olatz Nicolas Buxens, Carlo Ferretti

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The impact of citizens in urban transformations has become increasingly important in the pursuit of creating citizen-centered cities. Citizens at the forefront of the urban transformation process are key to establishing resilient, sustainable, and inclusive cities that cater to the needs of all residents. Therefore, collecting data and information directly from citizens is crucial for the sustainable development of cities. Within this context, public participation becomes a pillar for acquiring the necessary information from citizens. Public participation in urban transformation processes establishes a more responsive, equitable, and resilient urban environment. This approach cultivates a sense of shared responsibility and collective progress in building cities that truly serve the well-being of all residents. However, the implementation of public participation practices often overlooks strategies to effectively engage citizens in the processes, resulting in non-successful participatory outcomes. Therefore, this research focuses on identifying and analyzing the critical aspects of citizen engagement during the same participatory urban transformation process in different European contexts: Ermua (Spain), Elva (Estonia) and Matera (Italy). The participatory neighborhood regeneration process is divided into three main stages, to turn social districts into inclusive and smart neighborhoods: (i) the strategic level, (ii) the design level, and (iii) the implementation level. In the initial stage, the focus is on diagnosing the neighborhood and creating a shared vision with the community. The second stage centers around collaboratively designing various action plans to foster inclusivity and intelligence while pushing local economic development within the district. Finally, the third stage ensures the proper co-implementation of the designed actions in the neighborhood. To this date, the presented results critically analyze the key aspects of engagement in the first stage of the methodology, the strategic plan, in the three above-mentioned contexts. It is a multifaceted study that incorporates three case studies to shed light on the various perspectives and strategies adopted by each city. The results indicate that despite of the various cultural contexts, all cities face similar barriers when seeking to enhance engagement. Accordingly, the study identifies specific challenges within the participatory approach across the three cities such as the existence of discontented citizens, communication gaps, inconsistent participation, or administration resistance. Consequently, key learnings of the process indicate that a collaborative sphere needs to be cultivated, educating both citizens and administrations in the aspects of co-governance, giving these practices the appropriate space and their own communication channels. This study is part of the DROP project, funded by the European Union, which aims to develop a citizen-centered urban renewal methodology to transform the social districts into smart and inclusive neighborhoods.

Keywords: citizen-centred cities, engagement, public participation, urban transformation

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20 Advancing the Analysis of Physical Activity Behaviour in Diverse, Rapidly Evolving Populations: Using Unsupervised Machine Learning to Segment and Cluster Accelerometer Data

Authors: Christopher Thornton, Niina Kolehmainen, Kianoush Nazarpour

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Background: Accelerometers are widely used to measure physical activity behavior, including in children. The traditional method for processing acceleration data uses cut points, relying on calibration studies that relate the quantity of acceleration to energy expenditure. As these relationships do not generalise across diverse populations, they must be parametrised for each subpopulation, including different age groups, which is costly and makes studies across diverse populations difficult. A data-driven approach that allows physical activity intensity states to emerge from the data under study without relying on parameters derived from external populations offers a new perspective on this problem and potentially improved results. We evaluated the data-driven approach in a diverse population with a range of rapidly evolving physical and mental capabilities, namely very young children (9-38 months old), where this new approach may be particularly appropriate. Methods: We applied an unsupervised machine learning approach (a hidden semi-Markov model - HSMM) to segment and cluster the accelerometer data recorded from 275 children with a diverse range of physical and cognitive abilities. The HSMM was configured to identify a maximum of six physical activity intensity states and the output of the model was the time spent by each child in each of the states. For comparison, we also processed the accelerometer data using published cut points with available thresholds for the population. This provided us with time estimates for each child’s sedentary (SED), light physical activity (LPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Data on the children’s physical and cognitive abilities were collected using the Paediatric Evaluation of Disability Inventory (PEDI-CAT). Results: The HSMM identified two inactive states (INS, comparable to SED), two lightly active long duration states (LAS, comparable to LPA), and two short-duration high-intensity states (HIS, comparable to MVPA). Overall, the children spent on average 237/392 minutes per day in INS/SED, 211/129 minutes per day in LAS/LPA, and 178/168 minutes in HIS/MVPA. We found that INS overlapped with 53% of SED, LAS overlapped with 37% of LPA and HIS overlapped with 60% of MVPA. We also looked at the correlation between the time spent by a child in either HIS or MVPA and their physical and cognitive abilities. We found that HIS was more strongly correlated with physical mobility (R²HIS =0.5, R²MVPA= 0.28), cognitive ability (R²HIS =0.31, R²MVPA= 0.15), and age (R²HIS =0.15, R²MVPA= 0.09), indicating increased sensitivity to key attributes associated with a child’s mobility. Conclusion: An unsupervised machine learning technique can segment and cluster accelerometer data according to the intensity of movement at a given time. It provides a potentially more sensitive, appropriate, and cost-effective approach to analysing physical activity behavior in diverse populations, compared to the current cut points approach. This, in turn, supports research that is more inclusive across diverse populations.

Keywords: physical activity, machine learning, under 5s, disability, accelerometer

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19 Microgrid Design Under Optimal Control With Batch Reinforcement Learning

Authors: Valentin Père, Mathieu Milhé, Fabien Baillon, Jean-Louis Dirion

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Microgrids offer potential solutions to meet the need for local grid stability and increase isolated networks autonomy with the integration of intermittent renewable energy production and storage facilities. In such a context, sizing production and storage for a given network is a complex task, highly depending on input data such as power load profile and renewable resource availability. This work aims at developing an operating cost computation methodology for different microgrid designs based on the use of deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to tackle the optimal operation problem in stochastic environments. RL is a data-based sequential decision control method based on Markov decision processes that enable the consideration of random variables for control at a chosen time scale. Agents trained via RL constitute a promising class of Energy Management Systems (EMS) for the operation of microgrids with energy storage. Microgrid sizing (or design) is generally performed by minimizing investment costs and operational costs arising from the EMS behavior. The latter might include economic aspects (power purchase, facilities aging), social aspects (load curtailment), and ecological aspects (carbon emissions). Sizing variables are related to major constraints on the optimal operation of the network by the EMS. In this work, an islanded mode microgrid is considered. Renewable generation is done with photovoltaic panels; an electrochemical battery ensures short-term electricity storage. The controllable unit is a hydrogen tank that is used as a long-term storage unit. The proposed approach focus on the transfer of agent learning for the near-optimal operating cost approximation with deep RL for each microgrid size. Like most data-based algorithms, the training step in RL leads to important computer time. The objective of this work is thus to study the potential of Batch-Constrained Q-learning (BCQ) for the optimal sizing of microgrids and especially to reduce the computation time of operating cost estimation in several microgrid configurations. BCQ is an off-line RL algorithm that is known to be data efficient and can learn better policies than on-line RL algorithms on the same buffer. The general idea is to use the learned policy of agents trained in similar environments to constitute a buffer. The latter is used to train BCQ, and thus the agent learning can be performed without update during interaction sampling. A comparison between online RL and the presented method is performed based on the score by environment and on the computation time.

Keywords: batch-constrained reinforcement learning, control, design, optimal

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18 Improving the Biocontrol of the Argentine Stem Weevil; Using the Parasitic Wasp Microctonus hyperodae

Authors: John G. Skelly, Peter K. Dearden, Thomas W. R. Harrop, Sarah N. Inwood, Joseph Guhlin

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The Argentine stem weevil (ASW; L. bonariensis) is an economically important pasture pest in New Zealand, which causes about $200 million of damage per annum. Microctonus hyperodae (Mh), a parasite of the ASW in its natural range in South America, was introduced into New Zealand to curb the pasture damage caused by the ASW. Mh is an endoparasitic wasp that lays its eggs in the ASW halting its reproduction. Mh was initially successful at preventing ASW proliferation and reducing pasture damage. The effectiveness of Mh has since declined due to decreased parasitism rates and has resulted in increased pasture damage. Although the mechanism through which ASW has developed resistance to Mh has not been discovered, it has been proposed to be due to the different reproductive modes used by Mh and the ASW in New Zealand. The ASW reproduces sexually, whereas Mh reproduces asexually, which has been hypothesised to have allowed the ASW to ‘out evolve’ Mh. Other species within the Microctonus genus reproduce both sexually and asexually. Strains of Microctonus aethiopoides (Ma), a species closely related to Mh, reproduce either by sexual or asexual reproduction. Comparing the genomes of sexual and asexual Microctonus may allow for the identification of the mechanism of asexual reproduction and other characteristics that may improve Mh as a biocontrol agent. The genomes of Mh and three strains of Ma, two of which reproduce sexually and one reproduces asexually, have been sequenced and annotated. The French (MaFR) and Moroccan (MaMO) reproduce sexually, whereas the Irish strain (MaIR) reproduces asexually. Like Mh, The Ma strains are also used as biocontrol agents, but for different weevil species. The genomes of Mh and MaIR were subsequently upgraded using Hi-C, resulting in a set of high quality, highly contiguous genomes. A subset of the genes involved in mitosis and meiosis, which have been identified though the use of Hidden Markov Models generated from genes involved in these processes in other Hymenoptera, have been catalogued in Mh and the strains of Ma. Meiosis and mitosis genes were broadly conserved in both sexual and asexual Microctonus species. This implies that either the asexual species have retained a subset of the molecular components required for sexual reproduction or that the molecular mechanisms of mitosis and meiosis are different or differently regulated in Microctonus to other insect species in which these mechanisms are more broadly characterised. Bioinformatic analysis of the chemoreceptor compliment in Microctonus has revealed some variation in the number of olfactory receptors, which may be related to host preference. Phylogenetic analysis of olfactory receptors highlights variation, which may be able to explain different host range preferences in the Microctonus. Hi-C clustering implies that Mh has 12 chromosomes, and MaIR has 8. Hence there may be variation in gene regulation between species. Genome alignment of Mh and MaIR implies that there may be large scale genome structural variation. Greater insight into the genetics of these agriculturally important group of parasitic wasps may be beneficial in restoring or maintaining their biocontrol efficacy.

Keywords: argentine stem weevil, asexual, genomics, Microctonus hyperodae

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17 Post-Soviet Georgia in Visual History Analysis

Authors: Ana Nemsadze

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Contemporary era and society are called postindustrial era and postindustrial society and/or informational era and informational society. Today science intends to define concept of information and comprehend informations role and function in contemporary society. Organization of social environment and governance of public processes on the base of information and tools of communication are main characteristics of informational era. This was defined by technological changes which were accomplished in culture in the second half of twentieth century. Today Georgia as an independent state needs to create an informational discourse of the country and therefore it is very important to study political and social cases which accomplished in the country after collapse of the Soviet Union because they start to define the present and the future of the country. The purpose of this study is to analyze political cases of the latest history of Georgia in terms of culture and information, concretely to elucidate which political cases transformed social life of post Soviet Georgia most of all who accomplished these political cases which visual and verbal messages was each political case spread with. The research is conducted on the base of interview. Participants of the interview are people of various specializations. Their professional activity is related to reflections on culture and theme of visual communication. They are philosophers sociologists a journalist media researcher a politologist a painter. The participants of the interview enumerated political cases and characterized them separately. Every expert thinks that declaration of independence of Georgia is the most important fact among all facts which were implemented in Georgia after collapse of the Soviet Union. The research revealed important social and political cases. Most of the cases are related to independence and territorial integrity of the state. Presidents of Georgia Zviad Gamsakhurdia Eduard Shevardnadze Mikheil Saakashvili Catholocos-Patriarch of All Georgia, the Archbishop of Mtskheta Tbilisi and Metropolitan bishop of Bichvinta and Tskhum Abkhazia Ilia II, businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili assumed dominating roles in cases. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Zviad Gamsakhurdia presidential term expresses national freedom and visual part of cases of the same period expresses ruin of social-political structure. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Eduard Sevardnadze presidential term expresses Free State and stability and reestablishment of Georgias political function in international relations and visual part of cases of the same period describes the most important moment of his presidential term and Eduard Shevardnadzes face appears too. Verbal narrative of the cases accomplished during Mikheil Saakashvilis presidential term expresses social renewal and visual part of cases of the same period describes August war and Mikheil Saakashvilis face appears too. The results of the study also reveal other details of visual verbal narrative of political and social cases of post Soviet Georgia. This gives a chance to start further reflection.

Keywords: culture, narrative, post soviet, visual communication

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16 Use of Socially Assistive Robots in Early Rehabilitation to Promote Mobility for Infants with Motor Delays

Authors: Elena Kokkoni, Prasanna Kannappan, Ashkan Zehfroosh, Effrosyni Mavroudi, Kristina Strother-Garcia, James C. Galloway, Jeffrey Heinz, Rene Vidal, Herbert G. Tanner

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Early immobility affects the motor, cognitive, and social development. Current pediatric rehabilitation lacks the technology that will provide the dosage needed to promote mobility for young children at risk. The addition of socially assistive robots in early interventions may help increase the mobility dosage. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of an early intervention paradigm where non-walking infants experience independent mobility while socially interacting with robots. A dynamic environment is developed where both the child and the robot interact and learn from each other. The environment involves: 1) a range of physical activities that are goal-oriented, age-appropriate, and ability-matched for the child to perform, 2) the automatic functions that perceive the child’s actions through novel activity recognition algorithms, and decide appropriate actions for the robot, and 3) a networked visual data acquisition system that enables real-time assessment and provides the means to connect child behavior with robot decision-making in real-time. The environment was tested by bringing a two-year old boy with Down syndrome for eight sessions. The child presented delays throughout his motor development with the current being on the acquisition of walking. During the sessions, the child performed physical activities that required complex motor actions (e.g. climbing an inclined platform and/or staircase). During these activities, a (wheeled or humanoid) robot was either performing the action or was at its end point 'signaling' for interaction. From these sessions, information was gathered to develop algorithms to automate the perception of activities which the robot bases its actions on. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) is used to model the intentions of the child. A 'smoothing' technique is used to help identify the model’s parameters which are a critical step when dealing with small data sets such in this paradigm. The child engaged in all activities and socially interacted with the robot across sessions. With time, the child’s mobility was increased, and the frequency and duration of complex and independent motor actions were also increased (e.g. taking independent steps). Simulation results on the combination of the MDP and smoothing support the use of this model in human-robot interaction. Smoothing facilitates learning MDP parameters from small data sets. This paradigm is feasible and provides an insight on how social interaction may elicit mobility actions suggesting a new early intervention paradigm for very young children with motor disabilities. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by NIH under grant #5R01HD87133.

Keywords: activity recognition, human-robot interaction, machine learning, pediatric rehabilitation

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15 Adaptation of Retrofit Strategies for the Housing Sector in Northern Cyprus

Authors: B. Ozarisoy, E. Ampatzi, G. Z. Lancaster

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This research project is undertaken in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (T.R.N.C). The study focuses on identifying refurbishment activities capable of diagnosing and detecting the underlying problems alongside the challenges offered by the buildings’ typology in addition to identifying the correct construction materials in the refurbishment process which allow for the maximisation of expected energy savings. Attention is drawn to, the level of awareness and understanding of refurbishment activity that needs to be raised in the current construction process alongside factors that include the positive environmental impact and the saving of energy. The approach here is to look at buildings that have been built by private construction companies that have already been refurbished by occupants and to suggest additional control mechanisms for retrofitting that can further enhance the process of renewal. The objective of the research is to investigate the occupants’ behaviour and role in the refurbishment activity; to explore how and why occupants decide to change building components and to understand why and how occupants consider using energy-efficient materials. The present work is based on data from this researcher’s first-hand experience and incorporates the preliminary data collection on recent housing sector statistics, including the year in which housing estates were built, an examination of the characteristics that define the construction industry in the T.R.N.C., building typology and the demographic structure of house owners. The housing estates are chosen from 16 different projects in four different regions of the T.R.N.C. that include urban and suburban areas. There is, therefore, a broad representation of the common drivers in the property market, each with different levels of refurbishment activity and this is coupled with different samplings from different climatic regions within the T.R.N.C. The study is conducted through semi-structured interviews to identify occupants’ behaviour as it is associated with refurbishment activity. The interviews provide all the occupants’ demographic information, needs and intentions as they relate to various aspects of the refurbishment process. This research paper presents the results of semi-structured interviews with 70 homeowners in a selected group of 16 housing estates in five different parts of the T.R.N.C. The people who agreed to be interviewed in this study are all residents of single or multi-family housing units. Alongside the construction process and its impact on the environment, the results point out the need for control mechanisms in the housing sector to promote and support the adoption of retrofit strategies and minimize non-controlled refurbishment activities, in line with diagnostic information of the selected buildings. The expected solutions should be effective, environmentally acceptable and feasible given the type of housing projects under review, with due regard for their location, the climatic conditions within which they were undertaken, the socio-economic standing of the house owners and their attitudes, local resources and legislative constraints. Furthermore, the study goes on to insist on the practical and long-term economic benefits of refurbishment under the proper conditions and why this should be fully understood by the householders.

Keywords: construction process, energy-efficiency, refurbishment activity, retrofitting

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14 Urban Enclaves Caused by Migration: Little Aleppo in Ankara, Turkey

Authors: Sezen Aslan, N. Aydan Sat

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The society of 21st century constantly faces with complex otherness that emerges in various forms and justifications. Otherness caused by class, race or ethnicity inevitably reflects to urban areas, and in this way, cities are diversified into totally self-centered and closed-off urban enclaves. One of the most important dynamics that creates otherness in contemporary society is migration. Immigration on an international scale is one of the most important events that have reshaped the world, and the number of immigrants in the world is increasing day by day. Forced migration and refugee statements constitute the major part of countries' immigration policies and practices. Domestic problems such as racism, violence, war, censorship and silencing, attitudes contrary to human rights, different cultural or religious identities cause populations to migrate. Immigration is one of the most important reasons for the formation of urban enclaves within cities. Turkey, which was used to face a higher rate of outward migration, has begun to host immigrant groups from foreign countries. 1980s is the breaking point about the issue as a result of internal disturbances in the Middle East. After Iranian, Iraqi and Afghan immigrants, Turkey faces the largest external migration in its story with Syrian population. Turkey has been hosting approximate three million Syrian people after Syrian Civil War which started in 2011. 92% of Syrian refugees are currently living in different urban areas in Turkey instead of camps. Syrian refugees are experiencing a spontaneous spatiality due to the lack of specific settlement and housing policies of the country. This spontaneity is one of the most important factors in the creation of urban enclaves. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to clarify processes that lead the creation of urban enclaves and to explain socio-spatial effects of these urban enclaves to the other parts of the cities. Ankara, which is one of the most registered Syrian hosting Province in Turkey, is selected as a case study area. About 55% of the total Syrian population lives in the Altındağ district in Ankara. They settled specifically in two neighborhoods in Altındağ district, named as Önder and Ulubey. These neighborhoods are old slum areas, and they were evacuated due to urban renewal on the same dates with the migration of the Syrians. Before demolition of these old slums, Syrians are settled into them as tenants. In the first part of the study, a brief explanation of the concept of urban enclave, its occurrence parameters and possible socio-spatial threats, examples from previous immigrant urban enclaves caused internal migration will be given. Emergence of slums, planning history and social processes in the case study area will be described in the second part of the study. The third part will be focused on the Syrian refugees and their socio-spatial relationship in the case study area and in-depth interviews with refugees and spatial analysis will be realized. Suggestions for the future of the case study area and recommendations to prevent immigrant groups from social and spatial exclusion will be discussed in the conclusion part of the study.

Keywords: migration, immigration, Syrian refugees, urban enclaves, Ankara

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13 Empirical Study of Innovative Development of Shenzhen Creative Industries Based on Triple Helix Theory

Authors: Yi Wang, Greg Hearn, Terry Flew

Abstract:

In order to understand how cultural innovation occurs, this paper explores the interaction in Shenzhen of China between universities, creative industries, and government in creative economic using the Triple Helix framework. During the past two decades, Triple Helix has been recognized as a new theory of innovation to inform and guide policy-making in national and regional development. Universities and governments around the world, especially in developing countries, have taken actions to strengthen connections with creative industries to develop regional economies. To date research based on the Triple Helix model has focused primarily on Science and Technology collaborations, largely ignoring other fields. Hence, there is an opportunity for work to be done in seeking to better understand how the Triple Helix framework might apply in the field of creative industries and what knowledge might be gleaned from such an undertaking. Since the late 1990s, the concept of ‘creative industries’ has been introduced as policy and academic discourse. The development of creative industries policy by city agencies has improved city wealth creation and economic capital. It claims to generate a ‘new economy’ of enterprise dynamics and activities for urban renewal through the arts and digital media, via knowledge transfer in knowledge-based economies. Creative industries also involve commercial inputs to the creative economy, to dynamically reshape the city into an innovative culture. In particular, this paper will concentrate on creative spaces (incubators, digital tech parks, maker spaces, art hubs) where academic, industry and government interact. China has sought to enhance the brand of their manufacturing industry in cultural policy. It aims to transfer the image of ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’ as well as to give Chinese brands more international competitiveness in a global economy. Shenzhen is a notable example in China as an international knowledge-based city following this path. In 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government proposed the city slogan ‘Build a Leading Cultural City”’ to show the ambition of government’s strong will to develop Shenzhen’s cultural capacity and creativity. The vision of Shenzhen is to become a cultural innovation center, a regional cultural center and an international cultural city. However, there has been a lack of attention to the triple helix interactions in the creative industries in China. In particular, there is limited knowledge about how interactions in creative spaces co-location within triple helix networks significantly influence city based innovation. That is, the roles of participating institutions need to be better understood. Thus, this paper discusses the interplay between university, creative industries and government in Shenzhen. Secondary analysis and documentary analysis will be used as methods in an effort to practically ground and illustrate this theoretical framework. Furthermore, this paper explores how are creative spaces being used to implement Triple Helix in creative industries. In particular, the new combination of resources generated from the synthesized consolidation and interactions through the institutions. This study will thus provide an innovative lens to understand the components, relationships and functions that exist within creative spaces by applying Triple Helix framework to the creative industries.

Keywords: cultural policy, creative industries, creative city, triple Helix

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12 Small Town Big Urban Issues the Case of Kiryat Ono, Israel

Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all – the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. This is reflected in the quality of the urban form and life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 100,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies: The OBJECT, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue. Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the PLACE consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a coherent way. In Conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: housing, architecture, urban qualities, urban regeneration, conservation, intensification

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11 Comparative Research on Culture-Led Regeneration across Cities in China

Authors: Fang Bin Guo, Emma Roberts, Haibin Du, Yonggang Wang, Yu Chen, Xiuli Ge

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This paper explores the findings so far from a major externally-funded project which operates internationally in China, Germany and the UK. The research team is working in the context of the redevelopment of post-industrial sites in China and how these might be platforms for creative enterprises and thereby, the economy and welfare to flourish. Results from the project are anticipated to inform urban design policies in China and possibly farther afield. The research has utilised ethnographic studies and participatory design methods to investigate alternative strategies for sustainable urban renewal of China’s post-industrial areas. Additionally, it has undertaken comparative studies of successful examples of European and Chinese urban regeneration cases. The international cross-disciplinary team has been seeking different opportunities for developing relevant creative industries whilst retaining cultural and industrial heritage. This paper will explore the research conducted so far by the team and offer initial findings. Findings point out the development challenges of cities respecting the protection of local culture/heritages, history of the industries and transformation of the local economies. The preliminary results and pilot analysis of the current research have demonstrated that local government policyholders, business investors/developers and creative industry practitioners are the three major stakeholders that will impact city revitalisations. These groups are expected to work together with asynchronous vision in order for redevelopments to be successful. Meanwhile, local geography, history, culture, politics, economy and ethnography have been identified as important factors that impact on project design and development during urban transformations. Data is being processed from the team’s research conducted across the focal Western and Chinese cities. This has provided theoretical guidance and practical support to the development of significant experimental projects. Many were re-examined with a more international perspective, and adjustments have been based on the conclusions of the research. The observations and research are already generating design solutions in terms of ascertaining essential site components, layouts, visual design and practical facilities for regenerated sites. Two significant projects undertaken by this project team have been nominated by the central Chinese government as the most successful exemplars. They have been listed as outstanding national industry heritage projects; in particular, one of them was nominated by ArchDaily as Building of the Year 2019, and so this project outcome has made a substantial contribution to research and innovation. In summary, this paper will outline the funded project, discuss the work conducted so far, and pinpoint the initial discoveries. It will detail the future steps and indicate how these will impact on national and local governments in China, designers, local citizens and building users.

Keywords: cultural & industrial heritages, ethnographic research, participatory design, regeneration of post-industrial sites, sustainable

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