Search results for: macroeconomic uncertainty

Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

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In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

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Authors: Amirmozafar Benshams, Khatere Kashmari, Farzad Hatami, Mesbah Saybani

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As a part of the transportation network, bridges are one of the most vulnerable structures. In order to investigate the vulnerability and seismic evaluation of bridges performance, identifying of bridge associated with various state of damage is important. Fragility curves provide important data about damage states and performance of bridges against earthquakes. The development of vulnerability information in the form of fragility curves is a widely practiced approach when the information is to be developed accounting for a multitude of uncertain source involved. This paper presents the fragility curve methodologies for bridges and investigates the practice and applications relating to the seismic fragility assessment of bridges.

Keywords: fragility curve, bridge, uncertainty, NLTHA, IDA

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

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The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Sunny Nwakanma

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The emergence of the new economy has created a new world order for skill acquisition, economic activities and employment. It has dramatically changed the way we live, learn, work and even think about work. It has also created new opportunities as well as challenges and uncertainty. This paper will not only demystify the new economy and present its instrumentality in the acceleration of skill acquisition in technical education, but will also highlight industrial and occupational changes brought about by the synergy between information and communication technology revolution and the global economic system. It advocates among other things, the use of information and communication technology mediated instruction in technical education as it provides the flexibility to meet diverse learners’ need anytime and anywhere and facilitate skill acquisition.

Keywords: new economy, technical education, skill acquisition, information and communication technology

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Authors: Priyal Motwani, Garvit Goel

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In this study, we have studied and analysed the transaction data of investors of a mutual fund investment company based in India. Based on the data available, we have identified the top four biases that affect the investors of the emerging market economies through regression analysis and three uniquely defined ratios. We found that the four most prominent biases that affected the investment making decisions in India are– Chauffer Knowledge, investors tend to make ambitious decisions about sectors they know little about; Bandwagon effect – the response of the market indices to macroeconomic events are more profound and seem to last longer compared to western markets; base-rate neglect – judgement about stocks are too much based on the most recent development ignoring the long-term fundamentals of the stock; availability bias – lack of proper communication channels of market information lead people to be too reliant on limited information they already have. After segregating the investors into six groups, the results have further been studied to identify a correlation among the demographics, gender and unique cultural identity of the derived groups and the corresponding prevalent biases. On the basis of the results obtained from the derived groups, our study recommends six methods, specific to each group, to educate the investors about the prevalent biases and their role in investment decision making.

Keywords: Bandwagon effect, behavioural biases, Chauffeur knowledge, demographics, investor literacy, mutual funds

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Authors: Hee Joon Lee

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There are many difficulties in measuring a small flow rate of an order of milli grams per minute (LPM) or less using a conventional flowmeter. Therefore, a flow meter with minimal loss and based on a new concept was designed as part of this paper. A chamber was manufactured with a level transmitter and an on-off control valve. When the level of the collected condensed water reaches the top of the chamber, the valve opens to allow the collected water to drain back into the tank. To allow the water to continue to drain when the signal is lost, the valve is held open for a few seconds by a time delay switch and then closed. After an examination, the condensing flow rate was successfully measured with the uncertainty of ±5.7% of the full scale for the chamber.

Keywords: chamber, condensation, flow meter, milli-grams

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Authors: Noureddine Henka, Sami Tazi, Mohamad Assaad

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The electrical grid is a highly intricate system designed to transfer electricity from production areas to consumption areas. The Transmission System Operator (TSO) is responsible for ensuring the efficient distribution of electricity and maintaining the grid's safety and quality. However, due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, there is a growing level of uncertainty, which requires a faster responsive approach. A potential solution involves the use of electrical segmentation, which involves creating coherence zones where electrical disturbances mainly remain within the zone. Indeed, by means of coherent electrical zones, it becomes possible to focus solely on the sub-zone, reducing the range of possibilities and aiding in managing uncertainty. It allows faster execution of operational processes and easier learning for supervised machine learning algorithms. Electrical segmentation can be applied to various applications, such as electrical control, minimizing electrical loss, and ensuring voltage stability. Since the electrical grid can be modeled as a graph, where the vertices represent electrical buses and the edges represent electrical lines, identifying coherent electrical zones can be seen as a clustering task on graphs, generally called community detection. Nevertheless, a critical criterion for the zones is their ability to remain resilient to the electrical evolution of the grid over time. This evolution is due to the constant changes in electricity generation and consumption, which are reflected in graph structure variations as well as line flow changes. One approach to creating a resilient segmentation is to design robust zones under various circumstances. This issue can be represented through a multiplex graph, where each layer represents a specific situation that may arise on the grid. Consequently, resilient segmentation can be achieved by conducting community detection on this multiplex graph. The multiplex graph is composed of multiple graphs, and all the layers share the same set of vertices. Our proposal involves a model that utilizes a unified representation to compute a flattening of all layers. This unified situation can be penalized to obtain (K) connected components representing the robust electrical segmentation clusters. We compare our robust segmentation to the segmentation based on a single reference situation. The robust segmentation proves its relevance by producing clusters with high intra-electrical perturbation and low variance of electrical perturbation. We saw through the experiences when robust electrical segmentation has a benefit and in which context.

Keywords: community detection, electrical segmentation, multiplex graph, power grid

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

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This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: M. Ndeley

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Now our days, Almost all manufacturing facilities need to use production planning and scheduling systems to increase productivity and to reduce production costs. Real-life production operations are subject to a large number of unexpected disruptions that may invalidate the original schedules. In these cases, rescheduling is essential to minimize the impact on the performance of the system. In this work we consider flow shop layouts that have seldom been studied in the rescheduling literature. We generate and employ three types of disruption that interrupt the original schedules simultaneously. We develop rescheduling algorithms to finally accomplish the twofold objective of establishing a standard framework on the one hand; and proposing rescheduling methods that seek a good trade-off between schedule quality and stability on the other.

Keywords: flow shop scheduling, uncertainty, rescheduling, stability

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Authors: Anthony Coogan

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Born’s probability interpretation of wave functions would have led to nearly identical results had he chosen a frequency interpretation instead. Logically, Born may have assumed that only one electron was under consideration, making it nonsensical to propose a frequency wave. Author’s suggestion: the actual experimental results were not of a single electron; rather, they were groups of reflected x-ray photons. The vertical waveform used by Scrhödinger in his Particle in the Box Theory makes sense if it was intended to represent a quantum leap. The author extended the single vertical panel to form a bar chart: separate panels would represent different energy levels. The proposed bar chart would be populated by reflected photons. Expansion of basic ideas: Part of Scrhödinger’s ‘Particle in the Box’ theory may be valid despite negative criticism. The waveform used in the diagram is vertical, which may seem absurd because real waves decay at a measurable rate, rather than instantaneously. However, there may be one notable exception. Supposedly, following from the theory, the Uncertainty Principle was derived – may a Quantum Leap not be represented as an instantaneous waveform? The great Scrhödinger must have had some reason to suggest a vertical waveform if the prevalent belief was that they did not exist. Complex wave forms representing a particle are usually assumed to be continuous. The actual observations made were x-ray photons, some of which had struck an electron, been reflected, and then moved toward a detector. From Born’s perspective, doing similar work the years in question 1926-7, he would also have considered a single electron – leading him to choose a probability distribution. Probability Distributions appear very similar to Frequency Distributions, but the former are considered to represent the likelihood of future events. Born’s interpretation of the results of quantum experiments led (or perhaps misled) many researchers into claiming that humans can influence events just by looking at them, e.g. collapsing complex wave functions by 'looking at the electron to see which slit it emerged from', while in reality light reflected from the electron moved in the observer’s direction after the electron had moved away. Astronomers may say that they 'look out into the universe' but are actually using logic opposed to the views of Newton and Hooke and many observers such as Romer, in that light carries information from a source or reflector to an observer, rather the reverse. Conclusion: Due to the controversial nature of these ideas, especially its implications about the nature of complex numbers used in applications in science and engineering, some time may pass before any consensus is reached.

Keywords: complex wave functions not necessary, frequency distributions instead of wave functions, information carried by light, sketch graph of uncertainty principle

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Authors: M. Koray Cetin, Mehmet Mert

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The purpose of the study is to examine impacts on tourism revenues of the exchange rate and country overall security level. There are numerous studies that examine the bidirectional relation between macroeconomic factors and tourism revenues and tourism demand. Most of the studies support the existence of impact of tourism revenues on growth rate but not vice versa. Few studies examine the impact of factors like real exchange rate or purchasing power parity on the tourism revenues. In this context, firstly impact of real exchange rate on tourism revenues examination is aimed. Because exchange rate is one of the main determinants of international tourism services price in guests currency unit. Another determinant of tourism demand for a country is country’s overall security level. This issue can be handled in the context of the relationship between tourism revenues and overall security including turmoil, terrorism, border problem, political violence. In this study, factors are handled for several countries which have tourism revenues on a certain level. With this structure, it is a panel data, and it is evaluated with panel data analysis techniques. Panel data have at least two dimensions, and one of them is time dimensions. The panel data analysis techniques are applied to data gathered from Worldbank data web page. In this study, it is expected to find impacts of real exchange rate and security factors on tourism revenues for the countries that have noteworthy tourism revenues.

Keywords: exchange rate, panel data analysis, security, tourism revenues

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

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Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Alwehaibi

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Recently the windows of globalization weirdly open, which increase the trade between the Western countries and Muslim nations. Sales of goods contracts are one of the most common business transaction in the world. This commercial exchange has faced many obstacles. One of the most concerned obstacles is the conflicts between laws. Thus, United Nation created a Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG). Some of Islamic countries have ratified the CISG, while other Islamic countries have concerns about the feasibility of ratification of the CISG, and many businessmen have a concern of application of the convention. The concerns related to the conflict between CISG and Sharia, and the long debate about the success, ambiguity, and stability of the CISG. Therefore, this research will examine the feasibility of Muslim countries and Muslim businessmen to adopt the CISG by following steps: First, this research will introduce sharia Law (Islamic contracts law) and CISG and provide backgrounds of both laws. Second, this research will compare the provisions of CISG and Sharia and figuring out the conflicts and provide possible solutions for the conflicts. Third, this study will examine the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the CISG and examining the success of the CISG. Fourth, this study will explore the current situation in Islamic countries by taking Saudi Arabia as a case and explore how the application of Sharia law works and the possibility to enforce the CISG and explore the current practice of foreign Sales in Saudi Arabia. The research finds that there are some conflicts between CISG and Sharia Law. The most notable conflicts are interest and uncertainty in considerations. Also, this research finds that it seems that ratification of CISG is not beneficial for Muslim countries because the convention has not reached its goal which is uniformity of laws. Moreover, the CISG has been excluded and ignored by businessmen and some courts. Additionally, this research finds that it could be possible to enforce CISG in Saudi Arabia, provided that no conflict between the enforced provision and Sharia Law. This study is following the competitive and analysis methodologies to reach its findings. The researcher analyzes the provision of CISG and compares them with Sharia rules and finds the conflicts and compatibilities. In fact, CISG has 101 articles, so a comprehensive comparison of all articles in CISG with Sharia is difficult. Thus, in order to deeply analyze all aspects of this issue, this study will exclude some areas of contract which have been discussed by other researchers such as deliver of goods, conformity, and mirror image rules. The comparative section of this study will focus on the most concerned articles that conflict or doubtful of conflict with Sharia, which are interest, uncertainty, statute of limitation, specific performance, and pass of risk.

Keywords: Sharia, CISG, Contracts for International Sale of Goods, contracts, sale of goods, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. Shih, J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, S. W. Chen, S. C. Chiang, T. Y. Yu

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After the measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates, Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was uprated the power from 2894 MWt to 2943 MWt. For power upgrade, several codes (e.g., TRACE, RELAP5, etc.) were applied to assess the safety of Kuosheng NPP. Hence, the main work of this research is to establish a RELAP5/MOD3.3 model of Kuosheng NPP with SNAP interface. The establishment of RELAP5/SNAP model was referred to the FSAR, training documents, and TRACE model which has been developed and verified before. After completing the model establishment, the startup test scenarios would be applied to the RELAP5/SNAP model. With comparing the startup test data and TRACE analysis results, the applicability of RELAP5/SNAP model would be assessed.

Keywords: RELAP5, TRACE, SNAP, BWR

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Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Mary L. G. S. Senna

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The development of tourism is on the use of landscapes, natural or constructed, which involves a number of factors that contribute to the deterioration of nature. Tourist activity coupled with sustainable development has led to the emergence of many questions about these terms, since they are not well defined in this sense through literature searches. The present study was to analyze the main concepts and discussions involving sustainable tourism, providing reflections that can cause answers about one of the main questions in today's activity sector on whether its sustainability is a myth or reality. The methodology of this study is discussions, theoretical studies and bibliographic research. The results showed that the scholars who address the issue, often leave uncertainty about some discussions that demonstrate that there are still many studies to be conducted in order to prove that the claims so as to form the basis of what will be Tourism sustainable.

Keywords: tourism, sustainability, development, discussions

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Authors: Reem Abou Refaie, Christoph Meinel

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The paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the internal as well as external digitalized work practices of public service providers as part of a Public-Private Partnership Model. It focuses on the effect of uncertainty on generating Open Innovation practices. Our inquiry relies on semi-structured interviews (n=14) from a case study of Rwanda’s Public Service Delivery System in the context of research cooperation with IremboGov, the country’s One-Stop-Shop Platform for public services. It presents four propositions on harnessing opportunities for OI in the context of the public sector beyond the pandemic response. Practitioners can find characterizations of OI opportunities and gain insights on fostering OI in Public Sector Organizations.

Keywords: open innovation, digital transformation, public sector, Rwanda

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper a real-time obstacle avoidance approach for both autonomous and non-autonomous dynamical systems (DS) is presented. In this approach the original dynamics of the controller which allow us to determine safety margin can be modulated. Different common types of DS increase the robot’s reactiveness in the face of uncertainty in the localization of the obstacle especially when robot moves very fast in changeable complex environments. The method is validated by simulation and influence of different autonomous and non-autonomous DS such as important characteristics of limit cycles and unstable DS. Furthermore, the position of different obstacles in complex environment is explained. Finally, the verification of avoidance trajectories is described through different parameters such as safety factor.

Keywords: limit cycles, nonlinear dynamical system, real time obstacle avoidance, safety margin

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

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Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

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In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

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Authors: Alexander P. Vazhenin, Mikhail M. Lavrentiev, Alexey A. Romanenko, Pavel V. Tatarintsev

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One of the problems obstructing effective tsunami modelling is the lack of information about initial wave shape at source. The existing methods; geological, sea radars, satellite images, contain an important part of uncertainty. Therefore, direct measurement of tsunami waves obtained at the deep water bottom peruse recorders is also used. In this paper we propose a new method to reconstruct the initial sea surface displacement at tsunami source by the measured signal (marigram) approximation with the help of linear combination of synthetic marigrams from the selected set of unit sources, calculated in advance. This method has demonstrated good precision and very high performance. The mathematical model and results of numerical tests are here described.

Keywords: numerical tests, orthogonal decomposition, Tsunami Initial Sea Surface Displacement

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Authors: Hanee Ryu

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The supporting policies for renewable energy have been designed to deploy renewable energy technology targeting domestic market. The government encourages market creation through obligations such as FIT or RPS on an energy supplier. With these policy measures, the securing vast market needs to induce technology development. Furthermore, it is crucial that ensuring developing market can make the environment nurture the renewable energy industry. Overseas expansion to countries being in demand is essential under immature domestic market. Extending its business abroad can make the domestic company get the knowledge through learning-by-doing. Besides, operation in the countries to be rich in renewable resources such as weather conditions helps to develop proven track record required for verifying technologies. This paper figures out the factor to hamper the global market entry and build up the strategies to overcome difficulties. Survey conducted renewable energy company having overseas experiences at least once. Based on the survey we check the obstacle against exporting home goods and services. As a result, securing funds is salient fact to proceed to business. It is difficult that only private bank or investment agencies participate in the project under uncertainty which renewable energy development project bears inherently. These uncertainties need public fund such as ODA to encourage private sectors to start a business. Furthermore, international organizations such as IRENA or multilateral development banks as WBG play a role to guarantee the investment including risk insurance against uncertainty. It can also manage excavation business cooperating with developing countries and supplement inadequate government funding involved. With survey results strategies to obtain the order, the international organization places are categorized according to the type of getting a contract. This paper suggests 3 types approaching to the international organization project (going through international competitive bidding, using ODA and project financing) and specifies the role of government to support the domestic firms with running out of funds. Under renewable energy industry environment where hard to being created as a spontaneous market, government policy approach needs to motivate the actors to get into the business. It is one of the good strategies that countries with the low demand of renewable energies participate in the project international agencies order in the developing countries having abundant resources. This provides crucial guidance for the formulation of renewable energy development policy and planning with consideration of business opportunities and funding.

Keywords: exporting strategies, multilateral development banks, promoting in developing countries, renewable energy technologies

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Authors: Hasan Alrashid

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The 2005 Hague Convention seeks to ensure legal certainty and predictability between parties in international business transactions. It harmonies exclusive choice of court agreements at the international level between parties to commercial transactions and to govern the recognition and enforcement of judgments resulting from proceedings based on such agreements to promote international trade and investment. Although the choice of court agreements is significant in international business transactions, the United Arab Emirates refuse to recognise it by Article 24 of the Federal Law No. 11 of 1992 of the Civil Procedure Code. A review of judicial judgments in United Arab Emirates up to the present day has revealed that several cases appeared before the Court in different states of United Arab Emirates regarding the recognition of exclusive choice of court agreements. In all the cases, the courts regarded the exclusive choice of court agreements as a direct assault on state authority and sovereignty and refused categorically to recognize choice of court agreements by refusing to stay proceedings in favor of the foreign chosen court. This has created uncertainty and unpredictability in international business transaction in the United Arab Emirates. In June 2011, the first Gulf Judicial Seminar on Cross-Frontier Legal Cooperation in Civil and Commercial Matters was held in Doha, Qatar. The Permanent Bureau of the Hague Conference attended the conference and invited the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) namely, The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait to adopt some of the Hague Conventions, one of which was the Hague Convention on Choice of Court Agreements. One of the recommendations of the conference was that the GCC states should research ‘the benefits of predictability and legal certainty provided by the 2005 Convention on Choice of Court Agreements and its resulting advantages for cross-border trade and investment’ for possible adoption of the Hague Convention. Up to today, no further step has been taken by the any of the GCC states to adapt the Hague Convention nor did they conduct research on the benefits of predictability and legal certainty in international business transactions. This paper will argue that the approach regarding the recognition of choice of court agreements in United Arab Emirates states can be improved in order to help the parties in international business transactions avoid parallel litigation and ensure legal certainty and predictability. The focus will be the uncertainty and gaps regarding the choice of court agreements in the United Arab Emirates states. The Hague Convention on choice of court agreements and the importance of harmonisation of the rules of choice of court agreements at international level will also be discussed. Finally, The feasibility and desirability of recognizing choice of court agreements in United Arab Emirates legal system by becoming a party to the Hague Convention will be evaluated.

Keywords: choice of court agreements, party autonomy, public authority, sovereignty

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Authors: Ramon Erasmo Verdin Rodriguez

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Many has been the ways that historically the managers and gurus has been trying to get closer to the perfect supply chain, but since this topic is so vast and very complex the bigger the companies are, the duty has not been certainly easy. On this research, you are going to see thru the entrails of the logistics that happens at a glass manufacturing company with the number one raw material of the process that is the silica sand. After a very quick passage thru the supply chain, this document is going to focus on the way that raw materials flow thru the system, so after that, an analysis and research can take place to improve the logistics. Thru Operations Research techniques, it will be analyzed the current scheme of distribution and inventories of raw materials at a glass company’s plants, so after a mathematical conceptualization process, the supply chain could be optimized with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of supply and obtaining an economic benefit at the very end of this research.

Keywords: inventory management, operations research, optimization, supply chain

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

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The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Amin Jamili

Abstract:

Nowadays, the majority of international trade in goods is carried by sea, and especially by ships deployed in the industrial and tramp segments. This paper addresses routing the tramp ships and determining the schedules including the arrival times to the ports, berthing times at the ports, and the departure times in an operational planning level. In the operational planning level, the weather can be almost exactly forecasted, however in some routes some uncertainties may remain. In this paper, the voyaging times between some of the ports are considered to be uncertain. To that end, a two-stage stochastic mathematical model is proposed. Moreover, a case study is tested with the presented model. The computational results show that this mathematical model is promising and can represent acceptable solutions.

Keywords: routing, scheduling, tram ships, two stage stochastic model, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Abhiram Siva Prasad Pamula

Abstract:

Access to clean drinking water becomes scarce due to the increase in extreme weather events because of the rise in the average global temperatures and climate change. By 2030, approximately 47% of the world’s population will face water shortages due to uncertainty in seasonal rainfall. Over 10000 varieties of synthetic dyes are commercially available in the market and used by textile and paper industries, negatively impacting human health when ingested. Besides humans, textile dyes have a negative impact on aquatic ecosystems by increasing biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand. This study assesses different treatment methods that remove dyes from textile wastewater while focusing on energy, economic, and engineering aspects of the treatment processes.

Keywords: textile wastewater, dye removal, treatment methods, hazardous pollutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Muhammad Shafiq

Abstract:

In accelerated life testing approaches life time data is obtained under various conditions which are considered more severe than usual condition. Classical techniques are based on obtained precise measurements, and used to model variation among the observations. In fact, there are two types of uncertainty in data: variation among the observations and the fuzziness. Analysis techniques, which do not consider fuzziness and are only based on precise life time observations, lead to pseudo results. This study was aimed to examine the behavior of empirical acceleration functions using fuzzy lifetimes data. The results showed an increased fuzziness in the transformed life times as compare to the input data.

Keywords: acceleration function, accelerated life testing, fuzzy number, non-precise data

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Behnam Tavakkol

Abstract:

Uncertain data mining algorithms use different ways to consider uncertainty in data such as by representing a data object as a sample of points or a probability distribution. Fuzzy methods have long been used for clustering traditional (certain) data objects. They are used to produce non-crisp cluster labels. For uncertain data, however, besides some uncertain fuzzy k-medoids algorithms, not many other fuzzy clustering methods have been developed. In this work, we develop a fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm for clustering uncertain data objects. The developed fuzzy kernel k-medoids algorithm is superior to existing fuzzy k-medoids algorithms in clustering data sets with non-linearly separable clusters.

Keywords: clustering algorithm, fuzzy methods, kernel k-medoids, uncertain data

Procedia PDF Downloads 191