Search results for: spatial rainfall prediction

Authors: Ashwini Bhosale, Yogesh Patil

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Urban areas are extremely complicated environmental settings, where health and well-being of an individual and population are governed by a large number of bio-physical, socio-economical, and inclusive aspects. Although poverty and slums are the prime issues under UN-HABITAT agenda of environmental sustainability, slums, the inevitable part of urban environment, have not accounted for inclusive city planning. Developing nations, where about 60 % of world slum population resides, are increasingly under pressure to uplift the urban poor, particularly slum dwellers. From a point of advantage, these new slum redevelopment projects have succeeded in providing legitimized and more permanent and stable shelter for the low income people, as well as individualized sanitation and water supply. However, they unfortunately follow the “one type fits all" approach and exhibit no response to the climatic design needs on Mumbai. The thesis focuses on the study of environmental perspectives in the context of Daylight, natural ventilation and social aspects in the design process of Slum-Rehabilitation schemes (SRS) – case of Mumbai. It attempts to investigate into Indian approaches about SRS and concludes upon strategies to be incorporated in SRS to improve the overall SRS environment. The main objectives of this work have been to identify and study the spatial configuration and possibilities of daylight and natural ventilation in Slum Rehabilitated buildings. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by comparison with the daylight luminance simulated by lighting software, namely ECOTECT, and with measurements under real skies whereas for the ventilation study purpose, software named FLOW DESIGN was used.

Keywords: urban environment, slum-rehabilitation, daylight, natural-ventilation, architectural consequences

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Authors: Anna Gaspard, Stéphane Boudreau, Martin Simard

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Altered temperature and precipitation regimes associated with climate change generally result in improved conditions for plant growth. For Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, this new climatic context favours an increase in primary productivity, a phenomenon often referred to as "greening". The development of an erect shrub cover has been identified as the main driver of Arctic greening. Although this phenomenon has been widely documented at the circumpolar scale, little information is available at the scale of plant communities, the basic unit of the Arctic, and sub-Arctic landscape mosaic. The objective of this study is to quantify the variation of NDVI within the different plant communities of Nunavik, which will allow us to identify the plant formations that contribute the most to the increase in productivity observed in this territory. To do so, the variation of NDVI extracted from Landsat images for the period 1984 to 2020 was quantified. From the Landsat scenes, annual summer NDVI mosaics with a resolution of 30 m were generated. The ecological mapping of Northern Quebec vegetation was then overlaid on the time series of NDVI maps to calculate the average NDVI per vegetation polygon for each year. Our results show that NDVI increases are more important for the bioclimatic domains of forest tundra and erect shrub tundra, and shrubby formations. Surface deposits, variations in mean annual temperature, and variations in winter precipitation are involved in NDVI variations. This study has thus allowed us to quantify changes in Nunavik's vegetation communities, using fine spatial resolution satellite imagery data.

Keywords: climate change, latitudinal gradient, plant communities, productivity

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Authors: Yeaji Seok, Myung Kyung Lee

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Background: Even if patients survive after a stroke, stroke patients may experience disability in mobility, sensation, cognition, and speech and language. Stroke patients require rehabilitation for functional recovery and daily life for a considerable time. During rehabilitation, the role of caregivers is important. However, the stroke patients’ quality of life may deteriorate due to family caregivers’ non-preparedness and increased role burden. Purpose: To investigate the prediction of caregivers' preparedness and role burden on stroke patients’ quality of life. Methods: The target population was stroke patients who were hospitalized for rehabilitation and their family care providers. A total of 153 patient-family caregiver dyads were recruited from June to August 2021. Data were collected from self-reported questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, chi-squared test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson’s correlation coefficients, and multiple regression with SPSS statistics 28 programs. Results: Family caregivers’ preparedness affected stroke patients’ mobility (β = .20, p < 0.05) and character (β = -.084, p < 0.05) and production activities (β = -.197, p < 0.05) in quality of life. The role burden of family caregivers affected language skills (β = .310, p<0.05), visual functions (β=-.357, p < 0.05), thinking skills (β = 0.443, p = 0.05), mood conditions (β = 0.565, p < 0.001), family roles (β = -0.361, p < 0.001), and social roles (β = -0.304, p < 0.001), while the caregivers’ burden of performing self-protection negatively affected patients’ social roles (β = .180, p=.048). In addition, caregivers’ role burden of personal life sacrifice affected patients’ mobility (β = .311, p < 0.05), self-care (β =.232, p < 0.05) and energy (β = .239, p < 0.05). Conclusion: This study indicated that family caregivers' preparedness and role burden affected stroke patients’ quality of life. The results of this study suggested that intervention to improve family caregivers’ preparedness and to reduce role burden should be required for quality of life in stroke patients.

Keywords: quality of life, preparedness, role burden, caregivers, stroke

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: Suwapitch Chalongkulasak, Teerasak E-Kobon, Pramote Chumnanpuen

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Acne vulgaris is a common skin disease mainly caused by the Gram–positive pathogenic bacterium, Propionibacterium acnes. This bacterium stimulates inflammation process in human sebaceous glands. Giant African snail (Achatina fulica) is alien species that rapidly reproduces and seriously damages agricultural products in Thailand. There were several research reports on the medical and pharmaceutical benefits of this snail mucus peptides and proteins. This study aimed to in silico predict multifunctional bioactive peptides from A. fulica mucus peptidome using several bioinformatic tools for determination of antimicrobial (iAMPpred), anti–biofilm (dPABBs), cytotoxic (Toxinpred), cell membrane penetrating (CPPpred) and anti–quorum sensing (QSPpred) peptides. Three candidate peptides with the highest predictive score were selected and re-designed/modified to improve the required activities. Structural and physicochemical properties of six anti–P. acnes (APA) peptide candidates were performed by PEP–FOLD3 program and the five aforementioned tools. All candidates had random coiled structure and were named as APA1–ori, APA2–ori, APA3–ori, APA1–mod, APA2–mod and APA3–mod. To validate the APA activity, these peptide candidates were synthesized and tested against six isolates of P. acnes. The modified APA peptides showed high APA activity on some isolates. Therefore, our biomimetic mucus peptides could be useful for preventing acne vulgaris and further examined on other activities important to medical and pharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: Propionibacterium acnes, Achatina fulica, peptidomes, antibacterial peptides, snail mucus

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Authors: A. Fernandez Zuvich, I. Gana Watkins, H. Zolotucho, H. Troiani, A. Caneiro, M. Prado, A. L. Soldati

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The study of actinide nanoparticles (NPs) has attracted the attention of the scientific community not only because the lack of information about their ecotoxicological effects but also because the use of NPs could open a new way in the production of nuclear energy. Indeed, it was recently demonstrated that UO2 NPs sintered pellets exhibit closed porosity with improved fission gas retention and radiation-tolerance , ameliorated mechanical properties, and less detriment of the thermal conductivity upon use, making them an interesting option for new nuclear fuels. In this work, we used a combination of diffraction and microscopy tools to characterize the morphology, the crystalline structure and the composition of UO2 nanoparticles doped with 10%wt Gd2O3. The particles were synthesized by a modified sol-gel method at low temperatures. X-ray Diffraction (XRD) studies determined the presence of a unique phase with the cubic structure and Fm3m spatial group, supporting that Gd atoms substitute U atoms in the fluorite structure of UO2. In addition, Field Emission Gun Scanning (FEG-SEM) and Transmission (FEG-TEM) Electron Microscopy images revealed the presence of micrometric agglomerates of nanoparticles, with rounded morphology and an average crystallite size < 50 nm. Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) coupled to TEM determined the presence of Gd in all the analyzed crystallites. Besides, FEG-SEM-EDS showed a homogeneous concentration distribution at the micrometer scale indicating that the small size of the crystallites compensates the variation in composition by averaging a large number of crystallites. These techniques, as combined tools resulted thus essential to find out details of morphology and composition distribution at the sub-micrometer scale, and set a standard for developing and analyzing nanoparticulated nuclear fuels.

Keywords: actinide nanoparticles, burnable poison, nuclear fuel, sol-gel

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Authors: Iftekhar Hassan, Sayedil Morsalin, Easir A Khan

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Accidents involving fire occur frequently in recent times and their causes showing a great deal of variety which require intervention methods and risk assessment strategies are unique in each case. On September 4, 2020, a fire and explosion occurred in a confined space caused by a methane gas leak from an underground pipeline in Baitus Salat Jame mosque during Night (Esha) prayer in Narayanganj District, Bangladesh that killed 34 people. In this research, this incident is simulated using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to analyze and understand the nature of the accident and associated consequences. FDS is an advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) system of fire-driven fluid flow which solves numerically a large eddy simulation form of the Navier–Stokes’s equations for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal radiation, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. This study focuses on understanding the nature of the fire and consequence evaluation due to thermal radiation caused by vapor cloud explosion. An evacuation modeling was constructed to visualize the effect of evacuation time and fractional effective dose (FED) for different types of agents. The results were presented by 3D animation, sliced pictures and graphical representation to understand fire hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke due to vapor cloud explosion. This study will help to design and develop appropriate respond strategy for preventing similar accidents.

Keywords: consequence modeling, fire and explosion, fire dynamics simulation (FDS), thermal radiation

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Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

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This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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Authors: Maninder Singh

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The Chandigarh city is under the strain of exponential growth of car density across various neighborhood. The consumerist nature of society today is to be blamed for this menace because everyone wants to own and ride a car. Car manufacturers are busy selling two or more cars per household. The Regional Transport Offices are busy issuing as many licenses to new vehicles as they can in order to generate revenue in the form of Road Tax. The car traffic in the neighborhoods of Chandigarh has reached a tipping point. There needs to be a more empirical and sustainable model of cars per household, which should be based on specific parameters of livable neighborhoods. Sector 22 in Chandigarh is one of the first residential sectors to be established in the city. There is scope to think, reflect, and work out a method to know how many cars we need to sell our citizens before we lose the argument to traffic problems, parking problems, and road rage. This is where the true challenge of a planner or a designer of the city lies. Currently, in Chandigarh city, there are no clear visible answers to this problem. The way forward is to look at spatial mapping, planning, and design of car parking units to address the problem, rather than suggesting extreme measures of banning cars (short-term) or promoting plans for citywide transport (very long-term). This is a chance to resolve the problem with a pragmatic approach from a citizen’s perspective, instead of an orthodox development planner’s methodology. Since citizens are at the center of how the problem is to be addressed, acceptable solutions are more likely to emerge from the car and traffic problem as defined by the citizens. Thus, the idea and its implementation would be interesting in comparison to the known academic methodologies. The novel and innovative process would lead to a more acceptable and sustainable approach to the issue of number of car parks in the neighborhood of Chandigarh city.

Keywords: cars, Chandigarh, neighborhood, sustainable living, walkability

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Authors: Mukesh Khadka, Alexander Paz, Hanns de la Fuente-Mella

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Typically, pavement performance models are developed in two steps: (i) pavement segments with similar characteristics are grouped together to form a cluster, and (ii) the corresponding performance models are developed using statistical techniques. A challenge is to select the characteristics that define clusters and the segments associated with them. If inappropriate characteristics are used, clusters may include homogeneous segments with different performance behavior or heterogeneous segments with similar performance behavior. Prediction accuracy of performance models can be improved by grouping the pavement segments into more uniform clusters by including both characteristics and a performance measure. This grouping is not always possible due to limited information. It is impractical to include all the potential significant factors because some of them are potentially unobserved or difficult to measure. Historical performance of pavement segments could be used as a proxy to incorporate the effect of the missing potential significant factors in clustering process. The current state-of-the-art proposes Clusterwise Linear Regression (CLR) to determine the pavement clusters and the associated performance models simultaneously. CLR incorporates the effect of significant factors as well as a performance measure. In this study, a mathematical program was formulated for CLR models including multiple explanatory variables. Pavement data collected recently over the entire state of Nevada were used. International Roughness Index (IRI) was used as a pavement performance measure because it serves as a unified standard that is widely accepted for evaluating pavement performance, especially in terms of riding quality. Results illustrate the advantage of the using CLR. Previous studies have used CLR along with experimental data. This study uses actual field data collected across a variety of environmental, traffic, design, and construction and maintenance conditions.

Keywords: clusterwise regression, pavement management system, performance model, optimization

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Authors: Albert Suryaprawira

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The Nasion-Sella Line (NSL) has been used for several years as a reference line in longitudinal growth study. Therefore this line is considered to be stable not only to evaluate treatment outcome and to predict relapse possibility but also to manage prognosis. This is a radiographic superimposition of an adult male aged 19 years who complained of difficulty in aesthetic, talking and chewing. Patient has a midface hypoplasia profile (concave). He was diagnosed to have a severe Skeletal Class III with Class III malocclusion, increased lower vertical height, and an anterior open bite. A pre-treatment cephalometric radiograph was taken to analyse the skeletal problem and to measure the amount of bone movement and the prediction soft tissue response. A panoramic radiograph was also taken to analyse bone quality, bone abnormality, third molar impaction, etc. Before the surgery, a pre-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to re-evaluate the plan and to settle the final amount of bone cut. After the surgery, a post-surgical cephalometric radiograph was taken to confirm the result with the plan. The superimposition using NSL as a reference line between those radiographs was performed to analyse the outcome. It is important to describe the amount of hard and soft tissue movement and to predict the possibility of relapse after the surgery. The patient also needs to understand all the surgical plan, outcome and relapse prevention. The surgical management included maxillary impaction and advancement of Le Fort I osteotomy. The evaluation using NSL as a reference was a very useful method in determining the outcome and prognosis.

Keywords: Nasion-Sella Line, midface hypoplasia, Le Fort 1, maxillary advancement

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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Authors: Eric Mensah

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The effects of rapid urbanisation of tropical sub-Saharan developing cities on local and global climate are of great concern due to the negative impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. The importance of urban parks, vegetative cover and forest reserves in these tropical cities have been undervalued with a rapid degradation and loss of these vegetative covers to urban developments which continue to cause an increase in daily mean temperatures and changes to local climatic conditions. Using Landsat data of the same months and period intervals, the spatial variations of land cover changes, temperature, and vegetation were examined to determine how vegetation improves local temperature and the effects of urbanisation on daily mean temperatures over the past 12 years. The remote sensing techniques of maximum likelihood supervised classification, land surface temperature retrieval technique, and normalised differential vegetation index techniques were used to analyse and create the land use land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), and vegetation and non-vegetation cover maps respectively. Results from the study showed an increase in daily mean temperature by 0.80 °C as a result of rapid increase in urban area by 46.13 sq. km and loss of vegetative cover by 46.24 sq. km between 2005 and 2017. The LST map also shows the existence of UHI within the urban areas of Accra, the potential mitigating effects offered by the existence of forest and vegetative cover as demonstrated by the existence of cool islands around the Achimota ecological forest and University of Ghana botanical gardens areas.

Keywords: land surface temperature, climate, remote sensing, urbanisation

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Authors: Shidvash Vakilipour, Masoud Mohammadi, Rouzbeh Riazi, Scott Ormiston, Kimia Amiri, Sahar Barati

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An essential component of a finite volume method (FVM) is the advection scheme that estimates values on the cell faces based on the calculated values on the nodes or cell centers. The most widely used advection schemes are upwind schemes. These schemes have been developed in FVM on different kinds of structured and unstructured grids. In this research, the physical influence scheme (PIS) is developed for a cell-centered FVM that uses an implicit coupled solver. Results are compared with the exponential differencing scheme (EDS) and the skew upwind differencing scheme (SUDS). Accuracy of these schemes is evaluated for a lid-driven cavity flow at Re = 1000, 3200, and 5000 and a backward-facing step flow at Re = 800. Simulations show considerable differences between the results of EDS scheme with benchmarks, especially for the lid-driven cavity flow at high Reynolds numbers. These differences occur due to false diffusion. Comparing SUDS and PIS schemes shows relatively close results for the backward-facing step flow and different results in lid-driven cavity flow. The poor results of SUDS in the lid-driven cavity flow can be related to its lack of sensitivity to the pressure difference between cell face and upwind points, which is critical for the prediction of such vortex dominant flows.

Keywords: cell-centered finite volume method, coupled solver, exponential differencing scheme (EDS), physical influence scheme (PIS), pressure weighted interpolation method (PWIM), skew upwind differencing scheme (SUDS)

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Authors: Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, David J. Sailor, M. Salim Ferwati

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Mitigating extreme urban heat is challenging in a desert climate such as Doha, Qatar, since outdoor daytime temperature area often too high for the human body to tolerate. Recent studies demonstrate that cities in arid and semiarid areas can exhibit ‘urban cool islands’ - urban areas that are cooler than the surrounding desert. However, the variation of temperatures as a result of the time of day and factors leading to temperature change remain at the question. To address these questions, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in Doha, Qatar by conducting multiple vehicle-base local temperature observations. We also employed three statistical approaches to model surface temperatures using relevant predictors: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) Regression Tree Analysis and (3) Random Forest for three time periods. Although the most important determinant factors varied by day and time, distance to the coast was the significant determinant at midday. A 70%/30% holdout method was used to create a testing dataset to validate the results through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The Pearson’s analysis suggests that the Random Forest model more accurately predicts the surface temperatures than the other methods. We conclude with recommendations about the types of development patterns that show the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in air climates.

Keywords: desert cities, tree-structure regression model, urban cool Island, vehicle temperature traverse

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Authors: Rohana Pandukabhya Mahaliyanaarachchi, Maheshwari Sangeetha Elapatha, Mohamed Esham, Banagala Chathurika Maduwanthi

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The global climate change has become one of the imperative issues for the smallholder dominated agricultural sector and nature based tourism sector in Sri Lanka. Thus addressing this issue is notably important. The main objective of this study was to investigate the potential of agri-tourism as a sustainable adaptation option to mitigate some of the negative impacts of climate change in small scale agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. The study was carried out in two different climatic zones in Sri Lanka namely Low Country Dry Zone and Up Country Wet Zone. A case study strategy followed by structured and unstructured interviewers through cross-sectional surveys were adapted to collect data. The study revealed that there had been a significant change in the climate in regard to the rainfall patterns in both climatic zones resulting unexpected rains during months and longer drought periods. This results the damages of agricultural production, low yields and subsequently low income. However, to mitigate these adverse effects, farmers have mainly focused on using strategies related to the crops and farming patterns rather than diversifying their business by adopting other entrepreneurial activities like agri-tourism. One of the major precursor for this was due to lesser awareness on the concept of agri-tourism within the farming community. The study revealed that the respondents of both climatic zones do have willingness and potential to adopt agri-tourism. One key important factor identified was that farming or agriculture was the main livelihood of the respondents, which is one of the vital precursor needed to start up an agri-tourism enterprise. Most of the farmers in the Up Country Wet Zone had an inclination to start a farm guest house or a farm home stay whereas the farmers in the Low Country Dry Zone wish to operate farm guest house, farm home stay or farm restaurant. They also have an interest to open up a road side farm product stall to facilitate the direct sales of the farm. Majority of the farmers in both climatic zones showed an interest to initiate an agri-tourism business as a complementary enterprise where they wished to give an equal share to both farming and agri-tourism. Thus this revealed that the farmers have identified agri-tourism as a vital concept and have given the equal importance as given to farming. This shows that most of the farmers have understood agri-tourism as an alternative income source that can mitigate the adverse effects of climatic change. This study emphasizes that agri-tourism as an alternative income source that can mitigate the adverse effects of climatic change on small scale agriculture sector.

Keywords: adaptation, agri-tourism, climate change, small scale agriculture

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Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

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Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

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Authors: Anwaar Ahmed, Muhammad Bilal Khurshid, Samuel Labi

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The effect of trucks on the level of service is determined by considering passenger car equivalents (PCE) of trucks. The current version of Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) uses a single PCE value for all tucks combined. However, the composition of truck traffic varies from location to location; therefore a single PCE-value for all trucks may not correctly represent the impact of truck traffic at specific locations. Consequently, present study developed separate PCE values for single-unit and combination trucks to replace the single value provided in the HCM on different freeways. Site specific PCE values, were developed using concept of spatial lagging headways (the distance from the rear bumper of a leading vehicle to the rear bumper of the following vehicle) measured from field traffic data. The study used data from four locations on a single urban freeway and three different rural freeways in Indiana. Three-stage-least-squares (3SLS) regression techniques were used to generate models that predicted lagging headways for passenger cars, single unit trucks (SUT), and combination trucks (CT). The estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck for basic urban freeways (level terrain) were: 1.35 and 1.60, respectively. For rural freeways the estimated PCE values for single-unit and combination truck were: 1.30 and 1.45, respectively. As expected, traffic variables such as vehicle flow rates and speed have significant impacts on vehicle headways. Study results revealed that the use of separate PCE values for different truck classes can have significant influence on the LOS estimation.

Keywords: level of service, capacity analysis, lagging headway, trucks

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Authors: Guo-Hui Lu, Jing-Yi Cai, Ke-Yan Tan, Xiao-Cai Yin, Yu Zheng, Peng-Wei Shao, Yong-Liang Yang

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Soil erosion around abandoned mines is one of the important geological agents for pollutant diffuses to the lower reaches of the local river basin system. River loading of pollutants is an important parameter for remediation of abandoned mines. In order to obtain information on pollutant transport and diffusion downstream in mining area, the small tributary system of the Xiaxi River in Wanshan District of Guizhou Province was selected as the research area. Sediment and suspended matter samples were collected and determined for Pb, As, Hg, Zn, Co, Cd, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Mn by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS) with the pretreatment of wet digestion. Discussions are made for pollution status and spatial distribution characteristics. The total Hg content in the sediments ranged from 0.45 to 16.0 g/g (dry weight) with an average of 5.79 g/g, which was ten times higher than the limit of Class II soil for mercury by the National Soil Environmental Quality Standard. The maximum occurred at the intersection of the Jin River and the Xiaxi River. The potential ecological hazard index (RI) was used to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals in the sediments. The average RI value for the whole study area suggests the high potential ecological risk level. High Cd potential ecological risk was found at individual sites.

Keywords: heavy metal, risk assessment, sediment, suspended matter, Wanshan mercury mine, small tributary system

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Authors: Fathi Ali Swaid

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Soil salinization is one of the most hazardous phenomenons accelerating the land degradation processes. It either occurs naturally or is human-induced. High levels of soil salinity negatively affect crop growth and productivity leading land degradation ultimately. Thus, it is important to monitor and map soil salinity at an early stage to enact effective soil reclamation program that helps lessen or prevent future increase in soil salinity. Geophysical method has outperformed the traditional method for assessing soil salinity offering more informative and professional rapid assessment techniques for monitoring and mapping soil salinity. Soil sampling, EM38 and 2D conductivity imaging have been evaluated for their ability to delineate and map the level of salinity variations at Second Ponds Creek. The three methods have shown that the subsoil in the study area is saline. Salt variations were successfully observed under either method. However, EM38 reading and 2D inversion data show a clear spatial structure comparing to EC1:5 of soil samples in spite of that all soil samples, EM38 and 2D imaging were collected from the same location. Because EM38 readings and 2D imaging data are a weighted average of electrical soil conductance, it is more representative of soil properties than the soil samples method. The mapping of subsurface soil at the study area has been successful and the resistivity imaging has proven to be an advantage. The soil salinity analysis (EC1:5) correspond well to the true resistivity bringing together a good result of soil salinity. Soil salinity clearly indicated by previous investigation EM38 have been confirmed by the interpretation of the true resistivity at study area.

Keywords: 2D conductivity imaging, EM38 readings, soil salinization, true resistivity, urban salinity

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Authors: Matthew Holland, Jason Everett, Martin Cox, Iain Suthers

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High spatial-resolution distribution of planktivorous reef fish can reveal behavioural adaptations to optimise the balance between feeding success and predator avoidance. We used a multi-beam echosounder to record bathymetry and the three-dimensional distribution of fish schools associated with natural and artificial reefs. We utilised generalised linear models to assess the distribution, orientation, and aggregation of fish schools relative to the structure, vertical relief, and currents. At artificial reefs, fish schooled more closely to the structure and demonstrated a preference for the windward side, particularly when exposed to strong currents. Similarly, at natural reefs fish demonstrated a preference for windward aspects of bathymetry, particularly when associated with high vertical relief. Our findings suggest that under conditions with stronger current velocity, fish can exercise their preference to remain close to structure for predator avoidance, while still receiving an adequate supply of zooplankton delivered by the current. Similarly, when current velocity is low, fish tend to disperse for better access to zooplankton. As artificial reefs are generally deployed with the goal of creating productivity rather than simply attracting fish from elsewhere, we advise that future artificial reefs be designed as semi-linear arrays perpendicular to the prevailing current, with multiple tall towers. This will facilitate the conversion of dispersed zooplankton into energy for higher trophic levels, enhancing reef productivity and fisheries.

Keywords: artificial reef, current, forage fish, multi-beam, planktivorous fish, reef fish, schooling

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Authors: F. Q. Shao, W. Q. Wang, Y. Yin, T. P. Yu, D. B. Zou, J. M. Ouyang

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The Radiation Pressure Acceleration (RPA) mechanism is very promising in laser-driven ion acceleration because of high laser-ion energy conversion efficiency. Although some experiments have shown the characteristics of RPA, the energy of ions is quite limited. The ion energy obtained in experiments is only several MeV/u, which is much lower than theoretical prediction. One possible limiting factor is the transverse instability incited in the RPA process. The transverse instability is basically considered as the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability, which is a kind of interfacial instability and occurs when a light fluid pushes against a heavy fluid. Multi-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations show that the onset of transverse instability will destroy the acceleration process and broaden the energy spectrum of fast ions during the RPA dominant ion acceleration processes. The evidence of the RT instability driven by radiation pressure has been observed in a laser-foil interaction experiment in a typical RPA regime, and the dominant scale of RT instability is close to the laser wavelength. The development of transverse instability in the radiation-pressure-acceleration dominant laser-foil interaction is numerically examined by two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. When a laser interacts with a foil with modulated surface, the internal instability is quickly incited and it develops. The linear growth and saturation of the transverse instability are observed, and the growth rate is numerically diagnosed. In order to optimize interaction parameters, a method of information entropy is put forward to describe the chaotic degree of the transverse instability. With moderate modulation, the transverse instability shows a low chaotic degree and a quasi-monoenergetic proton beam is produced.

Keywords: information entropy, radiation pressure acceleration, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, transverse instability

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Authors: Pavel A. Strizhak, Geniy V. Kuznetsov, Ivan S. Voytkov, Dmitri V. Antonov

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This paper presents the results of experiments carried out at a specialized test site for establishing macroscopic patterns of heat and mass transfer processes at localizing model combustion sources of ground forest fires with the use of barrier lines in the form of a wetted lay of material in front of the zone of flame burning and thermal decomposition. The experiments were performed using needles, leaves, twigs, and mixtures thereof. The dimensions of the model combustion source and the ranges of heat release correspond well to the real conditions of ground forest fires. The main attention is paid to the complex analysis of the effect of dispersion of water aerosol (concentration and size of droplets) used to form the barrier line. It is shown that effective conditions for localization and subsequent suppression of flame combustion and thermal decomposition of forest fuel can be achieved by creating a group of barrier lines with different wetting width and depth of the material. Relative indicators of the effectiveness of one and combined barrier lines were established, taking into account all the main characteristics of the processes of suppressing burning and thermal decomposition of forest combustible materials. We performed the prediction of the necessary and sufficient parameters of barrier lines (water volume, width, and depth of the wetted lay of the material, specific irrigation density) for combustion sources with different dimensions, corresponding to the real fire extinguishing practice.

Keywords: forest fire, barrier water lines, pyrolysis front, flame front

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Authors: Montserrat Crespi Vallbona, Marta Domínguez Pérez

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Globalization impacts on cities and especially on their centers, especially on those spaces more visible and coveted. Changes are involved in processes such as touristification, gentrification or studentification, in addition of shop trendiness. The city becomes a good of interchange rather than a communal good for its inhabitants and consequently, its value is monetized. So, these different tendencies are analyzed: on one hand, the presence of tourists, the home rental increase, the explosion of businesses related to tourism; on the other hand; the return of middle classes or gentries to the center in a socio-spatial model that has changed highlighting the centers by their culture and their opportunities as well as by the value of public space and centrality; then, the interest of students (national and international) to be part of these city centers as dynamic groups and emerging classes with a higher purchasing power and better cultural capital than in the past; and finally, the conversion of old stores into modern ones, where vintage trend and the renewal of antiquity is the essence. All these transforming processes impact the European cities and redefine their image. All these trends reinforce the impression and brand of the urban center as an attractive space for investment, keeping such nonsense meaningful. These four tendencies have been spreading correlatively impacting the centers and transforming them involving the displacement of former residents of these spaces and revitalizing the center that is financed and commercialized in parallel. The cases of Madrid and Barcelona as spaces of greater evidence in Spain of these tendencies serve to illustrate these processes and represent the spearhead. Useful recommendations are presented to urban planners to find the conciliation of communal and commercialized spaces.

Keywords: gentrification, shop trendiness, studentification, touristification

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Panagiotis Psimoulis, Zhong Wang

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Modelling and understanding vehicle volume distribution over the urban network are essential for urban design and transport planning. The space syntax approach was widely applied as the main conceptual and methodological framework for contemporary vehicle volume models with the help of the statistical method of multiple regression analysis (MRA). However, the MRA model with space syntax variables shows a limitation in vehicle volume predicting in accounting for the crossed effect of the urban configurational characters and socio-economic factors. The aim of this paper is to construct models by interacting with the combined impact of the street network structure and socio-economic factors. In this paper, we present a multilevel linear (ML) and an agent-based (AB) vehicle volume model at an urban scale interacting with space syntax theoretical framework. The ML model allowed random effects of urban configurational characteristics in different urban contexts. And the AB model was developed with the incorporation of transformed space syntax components of the MRA models into the agents’ spatial behaviour. Three models were implemented in the same urban environment. The ML model exhibit superiority over the original MRA model in identifying the relative impacts of the configurational characters and macro-scale socio-economic factors that shape vehicle movement distribution over the city. Compared with the ML model, the suggested AB model represented the ability to estimate vehicle volume in the urban network considering the combined effects of configurational characters and land-use patterns at the street segment level.

Keywords: space syntax, vehicle volume modeling, multilevel model, agent-based model

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Authors: A. Rong, P. B. Luh, R. Lahdelma

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High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar power and wind power into the energy system has caused temporal and spatial imbalance between electric power supply and demand for some countries and regions. This brings about the critical need for coordinating power production and power exchange for different regions. As compared with the power-only systems, the combined heat and power (CHP) systems can provide additional flexibility of utilizing RES by exploiting the interdependence of power and heat production in the CHP plant. In the CHP system, power production can be influenced by adjusting heat production level and electric power can be used to satisfy heat demand by electric boiler or heat pump in conjunction with heat storage, which is much cheaper than electric storage. This paper addresses multi-site CHP systems without considering RES, which lay foundation for handling penetration of RES. The problem under study is the unit commitment (UC) of the transmission-constrained multi-site CHP systems. We solve the problem by combining linear relaxation of ON/OFF states and sequential dynamic programming (DP) techniques, where relaxed states are used to reduce the dimension of the UC problem and DP for improving the solution quality. Numerical results for daily scheduling with realistic models and data show that DP-based algorithm is from a few to a few hundred times faster than CPLEX (standard commercial optimization software) with good solution accuracy (less than 1% relative gap from the optimal solution on the average).

Keywords: dynamic programming, multi-site combined heat and power system, relaxed states, transmission-constrained generation unit commitment

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Authors: Marwa Djebbi, Hakim Gabtni

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Gravity is a continuously advancing method that has become a mature technology for geological studies. Increasingly, it has been used to complement and constrain traditional seismic data and even used as the only tool to get information of the sub-surface. In fact, in some regions the seismic data, if available, are of poor quality and hard to be interpreted. Such is the case for the current study area. The Nefza zone is part of the Tellian fold and thrust belt domain in the north west of Tunisia. It is essentially made of a pile of allochthonous units resulting from a major Neogene tectonic event. Its tectonic and stratigraphic developments have always been subject of controversies. Considering the geological and hydrogeological importance of this area, a detailed interdisciplinary study has been conducted integrating geology, seismic and gravity techniques. The interpretation of Gravity data allowed the delimitation of the dune reservoir and the identification of the regional lineaments contouring the area. It revealed the presence of three gravity lows that correspond to the dune of Zouara and Ouchtata separated along with a positive gravity axis espousing the Ain Allega_Aroub Er Roumane axe. The Bouguer gravity map illustrated the compartmentalization of the Zouara dune into two depressions separated by a NW-SE anomaly trend. This constitution was confirmed by the vertical derivative map which showed the individualization of two depressions with slightly different anomaly values. The horizontal gravity gradient magnitude was performed in order to determine the different geological features present in the studied area. The latest indicated the presence of NE-SW parallel folds according to the major Atlasic direction. Also, NW-SE and EW trends were identified. The maxima tracing confirmed this direction by the presence of NE-SW faults, mainly the Ghardimaou_Cap Serrat accident. The quality of the available seismic sections and the absence of borehole data in the region, except few hydraulic wells that been drilled and showing the heterogeneity of the substratum of the dune, required the process of gravity modeling of this challenging area that necessitates to be modeled for the geometrical characterization of the dune reservoir and determine the different stratigraphic series underneath these deposits. For more detailed and accurate results, the scale of study will be reduced in coming research. A more concise method will be elaborated; the 4D microgravity survey. This approach is considered as an expansion of gravity method and its fourth dimension is time. It will allow a continuous and repeated monitoring of fluid movement in the subsurface according to the micro gal (μgall) scale. The gravity effect is a result of a monthly variation of the dynamic groundwater level which correlates with rainfall during different periods.

Keywords: 3D gravity modeling, dune reservoir, heterogeneous substratum, seismic interpretation

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Authors: Pranav Ajmera, Amit Kharat, Tanveer Gupte, Richa Pant, Viraj Kulkarni, Vinay Duddalwar, Purnachandra Lamghare

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The cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) is the ratio of the diameter of the heart to the diameter of the thorax. An abnormal CTR, that is, a value greater than 0.55, is often an indicator of an underlying pathological condition. The accurate prediction of an abnormal CTR from chest X-rays (CXRs) aids in the early diagnosis of clinical conditions. We propose a deep learning-based model for automatic CTR calculation that can assist the radiologist with the diagnosis of cardiomegaly and optimize the radiology flow. The study population included 1012 posteroanterior (PA) CXRs from a single institution. The Attention U-Net deep learning (DL) architecture was used for the automatic calculation of CTR. A CTR of 0.55 was used as a cut-off to categorize the condition as cardiomegaly present or absent. An observer performance test was conducted to assess the radiologist's performance in diagnosing cardiomegaly with and without artificial intelligence (AI) assistance. The Attention U-Net model was highly specific in calculating the CTR. The model exhibited a sensitivity of 0.80 [95% CI: 0.75, 0.85], precision of 0.99 [95% CI: 0.98, 1], and a F1 score of 0.88 [95% CI: 0.85, 0.91]. During the analysis, we observed that 51 out of 1012 samples were misclassified by the model when compared to annotations made by the expert radiologist. We further observed that the sensitivity of the reviewing radiologist in identifying cardiomegaly increased from 40.50% to 88.4% when aided by the AI-generated CTR. Our segmentation-based AI model demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for CTR calculation. The performance of the radiologist on the observer performance test improved significantly with AI assistance. A DL-based segmentation model for rapid quantification of CTR can therefore have significant potential to be used in clinical workflows.

Keywords: cardiomegaly, deep learning, chest radiograph, artificial intelligence, cardiothoracic ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Wenbo Wang, Yi-Fang Brook Wu

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The spread of misinformation and disinformation has become a major concern, particularly with the rise of social media as a primary source of information for many people. As a means to address this phenomenon, automated fact-checking has emerged as a safeguard against the spread of misinformation and disinformation. Existing fact-checking approaches aim to determine whether a news claim is true or false, and they have achieved decent veracity prediction accuracy. However, the state-of-the-art methods rely on manually verified external information to assist the checking model in making judgments, which requires significant human resources. This study introduces a framework, SAC, which focuses on 1) augmenting the representation of a claim by incorporating additional context using general-purpose, comprehensive, and authoritative data; 2) developing a search function to automatically select relevant, new, and credible references; 3) focusing on the important parts of the representations of a claim and its reference that are most relevant to the fact-checking task. The experimental results demonstrate that 1) Augmenting the representations of claims and references through the use of a knowledge base, combined with the multi-head attention technique, contributes to improved performance of fact-checking. 2) SAC with auto-selected references outperforms existing fact-checking approaches with manual selected references. Future directions of this study include I) exploring knowledge graphs in Wikidata to dynamically augment the representations of claims and references without introducing too much noise, II) exploring semantic relations in claims and references to further enhance fact-checking.

Keywords: fact checking, claim verification, deep learning, natural language processing

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Authors: Fabiana Souza Orlandi, Juliana Gomes Duarte, Gabriela Dutra Gesualdo

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Chronic renal disease (CKD), accompanied by hemodialysis, causes chronic renal failure in a number of situations that compromises not only physical, personal and environmental aspects, but also psychological, social and family aspects. Objective: To verify the level of cognitive impairment of chronic renal patients on hemodialysis. Methodology: This is a descriptive, cross-sectional study. The present study was performed in a Dialysis Center of a city in the interior of the State of São Paulo. The inclusion criteria were: being 18 years or older; have a medical diagnosis of CKD; being in hemodialysis treatment in this unit; and agree to participate in the research, with the signature of the Informed Consent (TCLE). A total of 115 participants were evaluated through the Participant Characterization Instrument and the Addenbrooke Cognitive Exam - Revised Version (ACE-R), being scored from 0 to 100, stipulating the cut-off note for the complete battery <78 and subdivided into five domains: attention and guidance; memory; fluency; language; (66.9%) and caucasian (54.7%), 53.7 (±14.8) years old. Most of the participants were retired (74.7%), with incomplete elementary schooling (36.5%) and the average time of treatment was 46 months. Most of the participants (61.3%) presented impairment in the area of attention and orientation, 80.4% in the spatial visual domain. Regarding the total ACE-R score, 75.7% of the participants presented scores below the established cut grade. Conclusion: There was a high percentage (75.7%) below the cut-off score established for ACE-R, suggesting that there may be some cognitive impairment among these participants, since the instrument only performs a screening on cognitive health. The results of the study are extremely important so that possible interventions can be traced in order to minimize impairment, thus improving the quality of life of chronic renal patients.

Keywords: cognition, chronic renal insufficiency, adult health, dialysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 348