Search results for: case fatality rate

Authors: K. Omkar, D. Nayan

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Rapid urbanization is one of the consequences of rapid population explosion, which has also led to massive increase in number of motorized vehicles essential for carrying out all activities needed for sustaining urban livelihood. With this increased use of motorized vehicles over the time there has also been an increase in number of accidents. Study of road network and geometric features are essential to tackle problems of road accidents in any district or town. The increase in road accidents is one of the burning issues in the present society. Records show that there is one death at every 3.7 minutes because of road accident. It has been found from the research that, accidents occur due to, mistakes of the driver (86%) followed by bad street condition (5%), mistake of pedestrian (4%), as well as technical and maintenance defects (1%). Here, case study of Ahmedabad, Gujarat is taken up where first road safety level is assessed considering various parameters. The study confined to accident characteristics of all types of vehicles. For deeper analysis, road safety index for various stretches in Ahmedabad was found out. Crash rate for same stretches was found out. Based on various parameters priority was decided so that which stretch should be look out first to minimize road accidents on that stretch and which stretch should look out last. The major findings of the study are that accident severity of Ahmedabad has increased, but accident fatality risk has decreased; thus there is need to undertake some traffic engineering measures or make some traffic rules that are strictly followed by traffic. From the above study and literature studied it is found that Ahmedabad is suffering from similar problem of accidents and injuries and deaths caused by them, after properly investigating the issue short-term and long-term solutions to minimize road accidents have been presented in this paper.

Keywords: accident severity index, accident fatality rate, accident fatality risk, accident risk, road safety index

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Authors: Yasaswi Vengalasetti, Jacob Eisenach, Jay Bhattacharya

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Seroprevalence studies can provide an estimation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the probability of death given infection. Measuring the seroprevalence and reported deaths of an area within a given time frame an IFR can be estimated. With this IFR calculation, we can then observe COVID-19 death figures in different countries around the world and estimate the number of cases since the onset of the pandemic. There is a large range for estimated COVID-19 infections across different countries. This ranged from 0.659 million infections in Hong Kong to 277 million infections in India. The largest estimated share of the population infected is 63% in Peru and the lowest is 3% in Norway. For younger populations, COVID-19 is most fatal in South America; for older populations, it is most fatal in North America. The Asian regions stand out with significantly lower IFRs in older populations: at 80 years old, COVID-19 is about three times as fatal than in South Asia and about twelve times as fatal than in East Asia. The weighted average for the share of the population infected, the sum of infections divided by the sum of populations across all countries, is 23%.

Keywords: epidemiology, seroprevalence, covid-19, infection fatality rate

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Authors: A. Anis, W. Bekheet, A. El Hakim

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Implementing a Road Safety Management System (SMS) in a crowded developing country such as Egypt is a necessity. Beginning a sustainable SMS requires a comprehensive reliable data system for all information pertinent to road crashes. In this paper, a survey for the available data in Egypt and validating it for using in an SMS in Egypt. The research provides some missing data, and refer to the unavailable data in Egypt, looking forward to the contribution of the scientific society, the authorities, and the public in solving the problem of missing or unreliable crash data. The required data for implementing an SMS in Egypt are divided into three categories; the first is available data such as fatality and injury rates and it is proven in this research that it may be inconsistent and unreliable, the second category of data is not available, but it may be estimated, an example of estimating vehicle cost is available in this research, the third is not available and can be measured case by case such as the functional and geometric properties of a facility. Some inquiries are provided in this research for the scientific society, such as how to improve the links among stakeholders of road safety in order to obtain a consistent, non-biased, and reliable data system.

Keywords: road safety management system, road crash, road fatality, road injury

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Authors: Gagandeep Singh Grover, Vini Mahajan, Bhagmal, Priti Thaware, Jaspreet Takkar

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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease endemic in many countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. The state of Punjab in India shows cyclical and seasonal variation in dengue cases. The Case Fatality Rate of Dengue has ranged from 0.6 to 1.0 in the past years. The department has initiated a review of the cases that have died due to dengue in order to know the exact cause of the death in a case of dengue. The study has been undertaken to know the other associated co-morbidities and factors causing death in a case of dengue. The study used the predesigned proforma on which the records (medical and Lab) were recorded and reviewed by the expert committee of the doctors. This study has revealed that cases of dengue having co-morbidities have a longer stay in the hospital. Fluid overload and co-morbidities have been found as major factors leading to death, however, in a confirmed case of dengue hepatorenal shutdown was found to be a major cause of mortality. The data obtained will help in sensitizing the treating physicians in order to decrease the mortality due to dengue in future.

Keywords: dengue, death, morbidities, DHF, DSS

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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Fatalities of Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) on rural roads are usually higher than that on urban roads. The likelihood of traffic accidents may increase with the presence of factors that are associated with the rural type of community such as long-distance, road type, road geometry (e.g., curves and steepens), poor lighting, terrain, obstacles (e.g., animals crossing, boulders or tree branches), heavy truck traffic, weather conditions, and road flaws. Most of these factors are present on the rural roads of Oman. As many cities in Oman are surrounded by mountains and connected by rural roads, this is of great concern. In this paper, the causes of traffic crashes on rural roads in Oman are analyzed. The fatality rate of traffic deaths on rural roads is compared with the fatality rate on urban roads for different regions in Oman. Statistical data and police reports show that the leading cause of RTCs and deaths on rural roads is vehicle speeding, especially on long-distance roads. It is shown that crashes on rural roads result in higher fatalities than crashes on urban roads. In comparison to speed, the numbers of RTCs and deaths that resulted from other causes are small.

Keywords: causes of traffic crashes, road safety, road traffic crash, rural roads

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Authors: Kajori Banerjee, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

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India is a part of the ongoing globalization, contemporary convergence, industrialization and technical advancement that is taking place world-wide. Some of the manifestations of this evolution is rapid demographic, socio-economic, epidemiological and health transition. There has been a considerable increase in non-communicable diseases due to change in lifestyle. This study aims to assess the direction of burden of disease and compare the pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular, endocrine, metabolic and nutritional diseases. The change in prevalence in a ten-year period (2004-2014) is further decomposed to determine the net contribution of various socio-economic and demographic covariates. The present study uses the recent 71st (2014) and 60th (2004) rounds of National Sample Survey. The pressure of infectious diseases against cardio-vascular (CVD), endocrine, metabolic and nutritional (EMN) diseases during 2004-2014 is calculated by Prevalence Rates (PR), Hospitalization Rates (HR) and Case Fatality Rates (CFR). The prevalence of non-communicable diseases are further used as a dependent variable in a logit regression to find the effect of various social, economic and demographic factors on the chances of suffering from the particular disease. Multivariate decomposition technique further assists in determining the net contribution of socio-economic and demographic covariates. This paper upholds evidences of stagnation of the burden of communicable diseases (CD) and rapid increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) uniformly for all population sub-groups in India. CFR for CVD has increased drastically in 2004-2014. Logit regression indicates the chances of suffering from CVD and EMN is significantly higher among the urban residents, older ages, females, widowed/ divorced and separated individuals. Decomposition displays ample proof that improvement in quality of life markers like education, urbanization, longevity of life has positively contributed in increasing the NCD prevalence rate. In India’s current epidemiological phase, compression theory of morbidity is in action as a significant rise in the probability of contracting the NCDs over the time period among older ages is observed. Age is found to play a vital contributor in increasing the probability of having CVD and EMN over the study decade 2004-2014 in the nationally representative sample of National Sample Survey.

Keywords: cardio-vascular disease, case-fatality rate, communicable diseases, hospitalization rate, multivariate decomposition, non-communicable diseases, prevalence rate

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Authors: Folajimi Oladimeji Shorunke

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Background: As of October 9, 2023, diphtheria has been noted to be re-emerging in four African countries: Algeria, Guinea, Niger, and Nigeria. 14,587 cases with a case fatality rate of 4.1% have been reported across these regions, with Nigeria alone responsible for over 90% of the cases. In Taraba State Nigeria, the index case of Diphtheria was reported on epidemic week 34, August 24, 2023 with 75 confirmed cases found 3 months after the index case and a case fatality of 1.3%. it described the distribution, trend and common symptoms found during the Outbreak. Methods: The Taraba State Diphtheria Outbreak line list on the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management & Analysis System (SORMAS) for all its 16 local government areas (LGAs) was analyzed using descriptive statistics (graphs, chats and maps) for the period between 24th August to 25th November 2023. Primary data was collected through the use of case investigation forms and variables like Age, gender, date of disease onset, LGA of residence, and symptoms exhibited were collected. Naso-pharyngeal and oro-pharyngeal samples were also collected for Laboratory confirmation. The most common diphtheria symptoms during the outbreak were also highlighted. Results: A total of 75 Diphtheria cases were diagnosed in 10 of the 16 LGAs in Taraba State between 24th August to 25th November 2023, 72% of the cases were female, with the age range 0-9 years having the highest proportion of 34 (45.3%), the number of positive diagnosis reduces with age among cases. The Northern part of the State had the highest proportion of cases, 68 (90.7%), with Ardo-Kola LGA having the highest 28 (29%). The remaining 9.2% of cases is shared among the middle belt and southern part of the State. The Epi-curve took the characteristic shape of a propagated infection with peaks at the 37th, 39th and 45th epidemic weeks. The most common symptoms found in cases were fever 71 (94.7%), pharyngitis 65( 86.7%), tonsillitis 60 (80%), and laryngitis 53 (71%). Conclusions: The number of confirmed cases of Diphtheria in Taraba State, Nigeria between 24th August to 25th November 2023 is 75. The condition is higher among females than male and mostly affected children between ages 0-9 with the northern part of the state most affected. The most common symptoms exhibited by cases include fever, pharyngitis, tonsillitis and laryngitis.

Keywords: diphtheria outbreak, taraba nigeria, descriptive epidemiology, trend

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Authors: Chu-Tzu Chen, Angela S. Huang, Yu-Min Chou, Chin-Hui Yang

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Dengue is a major public health concern throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions. Taiwan is located in the Pacific Ocean and overlying the tropical and subtropical zones. The island remains humid throughout the year and receives abundant rainfall, and the temperature is very hot in summer at southern Taiwan. It is ideal for the growth of dengue vectors and would be increasing the risk on dengue outbreaks. During the first half of the 20th century, there were three island-wide dengue outbreaks (1915, 1931, and 1942). After almost forty years of dormancy, a DEN-2 outbreak occurred in Liuchiu Township, Pingtung County in 1981. Thereafter, more dengue outbreaks occurred with different scales in southern Taiwan. However, there were more than ten thousands of dengue cases in 2014 and in 2015. It did not only affect human health, but also caused widespread social disruption and economic losses. The study would like to reveal the epidemiology of dengue on Taiwan, especially the severe outbreak in 2015, and try to find the effective interventions in dengue control including dengue vaccine development for the elderly. Methods: The study applied the Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System database of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control as data source. All cases were reported with the uniform case definition and confirmed by NS1 rapid diagnosis/laboratory diagnosis. Results: In 2014, Taiwan experienced a serious DEN-1 outbreak with 15,492 locally-acquired cases, including 136 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) which caused 21 deaths. However, a more serious DEN-2 outbreak occurred with 43,419 locally-acquired cases in 2015. The epidemic occurred mainly at Tainan City (22,760 cases) and Kaohsiung City (19,723 cases) in southern Taiwan. The age distribution for the cases were mainly adults. There were 228 deaths due to dengue infection, and the case fatality rate was 5.25 ‰. The average age of them was 73.66 years (range 29-96) and 86.84% of them were older than 60 years. Most of them were comorbidities. To review the clinical manifestations of the 228 death cases, 38.16% (N=87) of them were reported with warning signs, while 51.75% (N=118) were reported without warning signs. Among the 87 death cases reported to dengue with warning signs, 89.53% were diagnosed sever dengue and 84% needed the intensive care. Conclusion: The year 2015 was characterized by large dengue outbreaks worldwide. The risk of serious dengue outbreak may increase significantly in the future, and the elderly is the vulnerable group in Taiwan. However, a dengue vaccine has been licensed for use in people 9-45 years of age living in endemic settings at the end of 2015. In addition to carry out the research to find out new interventions in dengue control, developing the dengue vaccine for the elderly is very important to prevent severe dengue and deaths.

Keywords: case fatality rate, dengue, dengue vaccine, the elderly

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Authors: Godfrey Nsereko, Daniel Kadobera, Denis Okethwangu, Joyce Nguna, Alex Riolexus Ario

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Background: Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In April 2018, malaria cases surged in Nwoya District, northern Uganda, exceeding the action thresholds. We investigated to assess the outbreak’s magnitude, identify transmission risk factors, and recommend evidence-based control measures. Methods: We defined a malaria case as onset of fever in a resident of Nwoya District with a positive Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy for malaria P. falciparum from 1 February to 22 May 2018. We reviewed medical records in all health facilities of affected sub-counties to find cases. In a case-control study, we compared exposure risk factors between 107 case-persons and 107 asymptomatic controls matched by age and village. We conducted entomological assessment on vector-density and behavior. Results: We identified 3,879 case-persons (attack rate [AR]=6.5%) and 2 deaths (case-fatality rate=5.2/10,000). Females (AR=8.1%) were more affected than males (AR=4.7%). Of all age groups, the 5-18 year age group (AR=8.4%) was most affected. Heavy rain started on 4 March; a propagated outbreak began during the week of 2 April. In the case-control study, 55% (59/107) of case-patients and 18% (19/107) of controls had stagnant water around households for several days following rainfall (ORM-H=5.6, 95%CI=3.0-11); 25% (27/107) of case-patients and 51% (55/107) of controls wore long-sleeve cloths during evening hours (ORM-H=0.30, 95%CI=0.20-0.60); 29% (31/107) of case-patients and 15% (16/107) of controls did not sleep under a long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) (ORM-H=2.3, 95%CI=1.1-4.9); 37% (40/107) of case-patients and 52% (56/107) of controls had ≥1 LLIN per 2 household members (ORM-H=0.54, 95%CI=0.30-0.97). Entomological assessment indicated active breeding sites; Anopheles gambiae sensu lato species were the predominant vector. Conclusion: Increased vector breeding sites after heavy rainfall, together with inadequate malaria preventive measures caused this outbreak. We recommended increasing coverage for LLINs and larviciding breeding sites.

Keywords: malaria outbreak, Plasmodium falciparum, global health security, Uganda

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Authors: Visa I. Tyakaray, M. Abdulaziz, O. Badmus, N. Karaye, M. Dalhat, A. Shehu, I. Bello, T. Hussaini, S. Akar, G. Effah, P. Nguku

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Introduction: Nigeria has recorded outbreaks of meningitis in the past, being in the meningitis belt. A multi-state outbreak of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) from Neisseria meningitides occurred in 2017 involving 24 states, and Kano State reported its first two confirmed CSM cases on 22nd March, 2017. We conducted the outbreak investigation to characterize the outbreak, determine its associated risk factors and institute appropriate control measures. Method: We conducted an unmatched Case-control study with ratio 1:2. A case was defined as any person with sudden onset of fever (>38.5˚C rectal or 38.0˚C axillary) and one of the following: neck stiffness, altered consciousness or bulging fontanelle in toddlers while a control was defined as any person who resides around the case such as family members, caregivers, neighbors, and healthcare personnel. We reviewed and validated line list and conducted active case search in health facilities and neighboring communities. Descriptive, bivariate, stratified and multivariate analysis were performed. Laboratory confirmation was by Latex agglutination and/or Culture. Results: We recruited 48 cases with median age of 11 years (1 month – 65 years), attack rate was 2.4/100,000 population with case fatality rate of 8%; 34 of 44 local government areas were affected.On stratification, age was found to be a confounder. Independent factors associated with the outbreak were age (Adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR =6.58; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) =2.85-15.180, history of Vaccination (AOR=0.37; 95% CI=0.13-0.99) and history of travel (AOR=10.16; (1.99-51.85). Laboratory results showed 22 positive cases for Neisseria meningitides types C and A/Y. Conclusion: Major risk factors associated with this outbreak were age (>14years), not being vaccinated and history of travel. We sensitized communities and strengthened case management. We recommended immediate reactive vaccination and enhanced surveillance in bordering communities.

Keywords: cerebrospinal, factors, Kano-Nigeria, meningitis, risk

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Authors: Dativa Maria Aliddeki, Fred Monje, Godfrey Nsereko, Benon Kwesiga, Daniel Kadobera, Alex Riolexus Ario

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Background: Cholera is a severe gastrointestinal disease caused by Vibrio cholera. It has caused several pandemics. On 26 February 2018, a suspected cholera outbreak, with one death, occurred in School X in Hoima Municipality, western Uganda. We investigated to identify the scope and mode of transmission of the outbreak, and recommend evidence-based control measures. Methods: We defined a suspected case as onset of diarrhea, vomiting, or abdominal pain in a student or staff of School X or their family members during 14 February–10 March. A confirmed case was a suspected case with V. cholerae cultured from stool. We reviewed medical records at Hoima Hospital and searched for cases at School X. We conducted descriptive epidemiologic analysis and hypothesis-generating interviews of 15 case-patients. In a retrospective cohort study, we compared attack rates between exposed and unexposed persons. Results: We identified 15 cases among 75 students and staff of School X and their family members (attack rate=20%), with onset from 25-28 February. One patient died (case-fatality rate=6.6%). The epidemic curve indicated a point-source exposure. On 24 February, a student brought fried fish from her home in a fishing village, where a cholera outbreak was ongoing. Of the 21 persons who ate the fish, 57% developed cholera, compared with 5.6% of 54 persons who did not eat (RR=10; 95% CI=3.2-33). None of 4 persons who recooked the fish before eating, compared with 71% of 17 who did not recook it, developed cholera (RR=0.0, 95%CIFisher exact=0.0-0.95). Of 12 stool specimens cultured, 6 yielded V. cholerae. Conclusion: This cholera outbreak was caused by eating fried fish, which might have been contaminated with V. cholerae in a village with an ongoing outbreak. Lack of thorough cooking of the fish might have facilitated the outbreak. We recommended thoroughly cooking fish before consumption.

Keywords: cholera, disease outbreak, foodborne, global health security, Uganda

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Authors: Imalka Wasana Rathnayaka, Rasheda Khanam, Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

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TheCOVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges to both the health and economic states in countries around the world. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of governments' decisions to mitigate the risks of COVID-19 through proposing policy directions to reduce its magnitude. The study is motivated by the ongoing coronavirus outbreaks and comprehensive policy responses taken by countries to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and reduce death rates. This study contributes to filling the knowledge by exploiting the long-term efficacy of extensive plans of governments. This study employs a Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The panels incorporate both a significant number of variables and fortnightly observations from22 countries. The dependent variables adopted in this study are the fortnightly death rates and the rates of the spread of COVID-19. Mortality rate and the rate of infection data were computed based on the number of deaths and the number of new cases per 10000 people.The explanatory variables are fortnightly values of indexes taken to investigate the efficacy of government interventions to control COVID-19. Overall government response index, Stringency index, Containment and health index, and Economic support index were selected as explanatory variables. The study relies on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Measure Tracker (OxCGRT). According to the procedures of ARDL, the study employs (i) the unit root test to check stationarity, (ii) panel cointegration, and (iii) PMG and ARDL estimation techniques. The study shows that the COVID-19 pandemic forced immediate responses from policymakers across the world to mitigate the risks of COVID-19. Of the four types of government policy interventions: (i) Stringency and (ii) Economic Support have been most effective and reveal that facilitating Stringency and financial measures has resulted in a reduction in infection and fatality rates, while (iii) Government responses are positively associated with deaths but negatively with infected cases. Even though this positive relationship is unexpected to some extent in the long run, social distancing norms of the governments have been broken by the public in some countries, and population age demographics would be a possible reason for that result. (iv) Containment and healthcare improvements reduce death rates but increase the infection rates, although the effect has been lower (in absolute value). The model implies that implementation of containment health practices without association with tracing and individual-level quarantine does not work well. The policy implication based on containment health measures must be applied together with targeted, aggressive, and rapid containment to extensively reduce the number of people infected with COVID 19. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that economic support for income and debt relief has been the key to suppressing the rate of COVID-19 infections and fatality rates.

Keywords: COVID-19, infection rate, deaths rate, government response, panel data

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Authors: Tri Wijayanti Septiarini, Agus Maman Abadi, Muhammad Rifki Taufik

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The exchange rate of IDR/USD can be the indicator to analysis Indonesian economy. The exchange rate as a important factor because it has big effect in Indonesian economy overall. So, it needs the analysis data of exchange rate. There is decomposition data of exchange rate of IDR/USD to be frequency and time. It can help the government to monitor the Indonesian economy. This method is very effective to identify the case, have high accurate result and have simple structure. In this paper, data of exchange rate that used is weekly data from December 17, 2010 until November 11, 2014.

Keywords: the exchange rate, fuzzy mamdani, discrete wavelet transforms, fuzzy wavelet

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Authors: Dina A. Amu, Fifi N. Afifah, Catur Rosidati, Tirton Nefianto

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Indonesia was shaken up by the avian influenza cases that had caused the country suffered losses of millions of dollars. The avian influenza case had even been suspected as a bioterrorism attack since it was an uncommon case in epidemiology. Furthermore, this avian influenza virus is a high pathogenic one and Indonesia has the highest case of fatality rate in the world. Bioterrorism threats or epidemic potential disease outbreaks currently does not exist in Tanjung Priok port yet. However, the surveillance system enhancement on epidemic potential diseases should be taken as a prevention, especially because Indonesia is currently facing the ASEAN Economic Society (AES). Therefore, this research evaluates the health surveillance system which is organized by Control, Quarantine and Surveillance Department, Health Office of Tanjung Priok Port. This study uses qualitative-evaluative method which utilizes Urgency Seriousness Growth (USG) method to determine priority issues and Root Cause analysis to determine the cause of prior problem. The result of this research shows that the implementation of epidemic potential disease surveillance in Tanjung Priok port has not done in the best possible way. It is because the lack of time allocation and the succinctness of the check list of ship's environmental health inspection. Therefore, Health Ministry of Indonesia should recruit more employees at the health office of Tanjung Priok port, hold a simulation of ship's inspection and simplify the list for ship's environmental health inspection.

Keywords: surveillance, epidemic potential disease, port health, bioterrorism

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: A. M. U. P. Kumari, Vidanapathirana. J., Amarasekara J., Karunanayaka L.

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Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection with significant morbidity and mortality. As an occupational disease, it has become a global concern due to its disease burden in endemic countries and rural areas. The aim of this study was to assess disease burden in terms of DALYs of leptospirosis. A hospital-based descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted using 450 clinically diagnosed leptospirosis patients admitted to base and above hospitals in Monaragala district, Sri Lanka, using a pretested interviewer administered questionnaire. The patients were followed up till normal day today life after discharge. Estimation of DALYs was done using laboratory confirmed leptospirosis patients. Leptospirosis disease burden in the Monaragala district was 44.9 DALYs per 100,000 population which includes 33.18 YLLs and 10.9 YLDs. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Monaragala district during the study period was 59.8 per 100,000 population, and the case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.5% due to delay in health seeking behaviour; 75% of deaths were among males due to multi organ failure. The disease burden of leptospirosis in the Moneragala district was significantly high, and urgent efforts to control and prevent leptospirosis should be a priority.

Keywords: human leptospirosis, disease burden, disability adjusted life Years, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

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In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Solomon Sisay, Belete Mengistu, Woldargay Erku, Desalegne Woldeyohannes

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Background: Tuberculosis is still the leading cause of illness in the world which accounted for 2.5% of the global burden of disease, and 25% of all avoidable deaths in developing countries. Objectives: The aim of study was to assess impact of DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment outcome in Gambella Regional State, Ethiopia from 2003 up to 2012 and from 2002 up to 2011, respectively. Methods: Health facility-based retrospective study was conducted. Data were collected and reported in quarterly basis using WHO reporting format for TB case finding and treatment outcome from all DOTS implementing health facilities in all zones of the region to Federal Ministry of Health. Results: A total of 10024 all form of TB cases had been registered between the periods from 2003 up to 2012. Of them, 4100 (40.9%) were smear-positive pulmonary TB, 3164 (31.6%) were smear-negative pulmonary TB and 2760 (27.5%) had extra-pulmonary TB. Case detection rate of smear-positive pulmonary TB had increased from 31.7% to 46.5% from the total TB cases and treatment success rate increased from 13% to 92% with average mean value of being 40.9% (SD= 0.1) and 55.7% (SD=0.28), respectively for the specified year periods. Moreover, the average values of treatment defaulter and treatment failure rates were 4.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Conclusion: It is possible to achieve the recommended WHO target which is 70% of CDR for smear-positive pulmonary TB, and 85% of TSR as it was already been fulfilled the targets for treatments more than 85% from 2009 up to 2011 in the region. However, it requires strong efforts to enhance case detection rate of 40.9% for smear-positive pulmonary TB through implementing alternative case finding strategies.

Keywords: Gambella Region, case detection rate, directly observed treatment short-course, treatment success rate, tuberculosis

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Authors: WonSun Chen, James Boylan, Erwin Muharemovic, Denny Meyer

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In Australia, drivers aged between 18 and 24 remained at high risk of road fatality over the last decade. Despite the successful implementation of the Graduated Licensing System (GLS) that supports young drivers in their early phases of driving, the road fatality statistics for these drivers remains high. In response to these statistics, studies conducted in Australia prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the benefits of using telematics devices for improving driving behaviour, However, the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on young drivers’ driving behaviour has emerged as a global concern. Therefore, this naturalistic study aimed to evaluate and compare the driving behaviour(such as acceleration, braking, speeding, etc.) of young drivers with the adoption of in-vehicle telematics devices. Forty-two drivers aged between 18 and 30 and residing in the Australian state of Victoria participated in this study during the period of May to October 2022. All participants drove with the telematics devices during the first 30-day. At the start of the second 30-day, twenty-one participants were randomised to an intervention group where they were provided with an additional telematics ray device that provided visual feedback to the drivers, especially when they committed to aggressive driving behaviour. The remaining twenty-one participants remined their driving journeys without the extra telematics ray device (control group). Such trustworthy data enabled the assessment of changes in the driving behaviour of these young drivers using a machine learning approach in Python. Results are expected to show participants from the intervention group will show improvements in their driving behaviour compared to those from the control group.Furthermore, the telematics data enable the assessment and quantification of such improvements in driving behaviour. The findings from this study are anticipated to shed some light in guiding the development of customised campaigns and interventions to further address the high road fatality among young drivers in Australia.

Keywords: driving behaviour, naturalistic study, telematics data, young drivers

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Authors: Woldegerima G. Medhin, Tadele Araya

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Background: Rabies is acute viral encephalitis affecting mainly carnivores and insectivorous but can affect any mammal. Case fatality rate is 100% once clinical signs appear. Rabies has a worldwide distribution in continental regions of Asia and Africa. Globally, rabies is responsible for more than 61000 human deaths annually. An estimation of human mortality rabies in Asia and Africa annually exceed 35172 and 21476 respectively. Ethiopia approximately 2900 people were estimated to die of rabies annually, Tigary region approximately 98 people were estimated to die annually. The aim of this study is to analyze trends, describe, and evaluate the ten years rabies data in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: We conducted descriptive epidemiological study from 15-30 February, 2023 of rabies exposure and death in humans by reviewing the health management information system report from Tigray Regional Health Bureau and vaccination coverage of dog population from 2013 to 2022. We used case definition, suspected cases are those bitten by the dogs displaying clinical signs consistent with rabies and confirmed cases were deaths from rabies at time of the exposure. Results: A total 21031 dog bites and 375 deaths report of rabies and 18222 post exposure treatments for humans in Tigray region were used. A suspected rabies patients had shown an increasing trend from 2013 to 2015 and 2018 to 2019. Overall mortality rate was 19/1000 in Tigray. Majority of suspected patients (45%) were age <15 years old. An estimated by Agriculture Bureau of Tigray Region about 12000 owned and 2500 stray dogs are available in the region, but yearly dog vaccination remains low (50%). Conclusion: Rabies is a public health problem in Tigray region. It is highly recommended to vaccinate individually owned dogs and concerned sectors should eliminate stray dogs. Surveillance system should strengthen for estimating the real magnitude, launch preventive and control measures.

Keywords: rabies, Virus, transmision, prevalence

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Authors: Amir Hamed Abd-Elrahman, Mohamed Bessat

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450 fattening cattle and buffaloes aged from 6 to 30 months old were examined clinically to determine patterns of occurrence of hemoparasitic diseases and the efficacy of different anti theilerial drugs. 420 animals examined clinically to determine relation between different outbreak of FMD and LSD in Egypt 2012- 2013 and haemoprotozoal diseases. The clinical pictures of haemoprotozoal diseases are variable, from sever to mild, depending on the endemic situation which governed by frequent previous exposure and tick infestation. B. bigemina is the most common haemoprotozoal diseases in the area of study and the infection rate in a descending manner for B. bigemina, A. marginale and T. annulata were 20%, 9.7% and 6.6% respectively. The species susceptibility of B. bigemina and T. annulata showed a higher incidence in cattle than buffaloes while in A. marginale showed a little difference in cattle and buffaloes susceptibility by 10% and 9.2% respectively. The breed susceptibility of B. bigemina and T. annulata showed a higher incidence in crossbred cattle than native baladi cattle while A. marginale showed a higher incidence in native baladi cattle than crossbred cattle. The maximal infection rates were recorded during summer months. The infection rates of B. bigemina and A. marginale were higher among young animals over 6 months and declined above 2 year old while in T. annulata the infection rates were lower among young animals and increased above 2 year old. The case fatality of T. annulata was higher than A. marginale and B. bigemina. Efficacy of different anti theilerial drugs were studied, cure rate of chlouroquine group and Butalex group were 60% disappearance of schizont in lymph node smear after 9 days and 5 days respectively while cure rate of Oxytetracycline Dihydrate (Alamycine) group 20% with disappearance of schizont in lymph node smear after 14 days. FMD and LSD infection enhancement the occurrence of bovine haemoprotozoal diseases.

Keywords: Babesia bigemina, Anaplasma marginale, Theileria annulata, FMD, LSD, ephemeral fever

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Pruethipong Xinghatiraj, Rajwanlop Kumpoopong

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Considering the current situation of road safety, Thailand has the world’s second-highest road fatality rate. Therefore, decreasing the road accidents in Thailand is a prime policy of the Thai government seeking to accomplish. One of the approaches to reduce the accident rate is to improve road environments to fit with the local behavior of the road users. The Department of Highways ensures that choosing the road median types right to the road characteristics, e.g. roadside characteristics, traffic volume, truck traffic percentage, etc., can decrease the possibility of accident occurrence. Presently, raised median, depressed median, painted median and median barriers are typically used in Thailand Highways. In this study, factors affecting road accident for each median type will be discovered through the analysis of the collecting of accident data, death numbers on sample of 600 Kilometers length across the country together with its roadside characteristics, traffic volume, heavy vehicles percentage, and other key factors. The benefits of this study can assist the Highway designers to select type of road medians that can match local environments and then cause less accident prone.

Keywords: highways, road safety, road median, forecasting model

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools in the analysis of traffic crash data can help to identify locations or hotspots with high instances or risk of traffic crashes. The identification of traffic crash hotspots can effectively improve road safety measures. Mapping of road traffic crash hotspots can help the concerned authorities to give priority and take targeted measures and improvements to the road structure at these locations to reduce traffic crashes and fatalities. In Oman, there are countless rural roads that have more risks for traveling vehicles compared to urban roads. The likelihood of traffic crashes as well as fatality rate may increase with the presence of risks that are associated with the rural type of community. In this paper, the traffic crash hotspots on rural roads in Oman are specified using spatial analysis methods in GIS and traffic crash data. These hotspots are ranked based on the frequency of traffic crash occurrence (i.e., number of traffic crashes) and the rate of fatalities. The result of this study presents a map visualization of locations on rural roads with high traffic crashes and high fatalities rates.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, traffic crash, GIS tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Chueh Chi-An, Chan Hui-Ya

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Background and Aim: National Health Insurance (NHI) Administration released a new reimbursement policy for hospital patients who received a superior discharge plan on April 1, 2016. Each case could be claimed 1,500 points for fee-of service with related documents. The policy is considered a solution to help reducing the crowding in the emergency department, the length of stay of hospital, unplanned readmission rate and unplanned ER visit. This study aim is to explore the effect of the new reimbursement policy for discharge planning service in a medical center. Methods: The discharge team explained to general wards the new policy and encouraged early assessment, communication and connecting to community care for patients. They stated the benefit from the policy and asked documenting for reimbursement claiming from April to May 2016. The imbursement fee of NHI declaration from June 2015 to October 2017 was collected. The indicators included hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction were analyzed after the policy implemented. Results: The results showed that the amount of service declaration was increasing from 2 cases in February 2016 to 110 cases in October 2017, the application rate was increasing from 0.029% to 1.576% of all inpatient cases, and the average payment from NHI was around 148,500 NT dollars per month in 2017. There are no significant differences in the indicators among hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction. Conclusion: To provide a good discharge plan require a specialized case manager, the new reimbursement policy is too complicated and the total fee-of-service hospital could claim is too limited to hiring one. The results suggest more strategies combine with the new reimbursement policy will be needed.

Keywords: discharge planning, reimbursement, unplanned ER visit, readmission rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Enrique Barbieri

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The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Inten Meutia, Emylia Yuniarti

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The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of interest rate, the rate of return of Islamic banks on the amount of mudarabah deposits in Islamic banks. In analyzing the effect of rate of return in the Islamic banks and interest rate risk in the conventional banks, the 1-month Islamic deposit rate of return and 1 month fixed deposit interest rate of a total Islamic deposit are considered. Using data covering the period from January 2010 to Sepember 2013, the study applies the regression analysis to analyze the effect between variable and independence t-test to analyze the mean difference between rate of return and rate of interest. Regression analysis shows that rate of return have significantly negative influence on mudarabah deposits, while interest rate have negative influence but not significant. The result of independent t test shows that the interest rate is not different from the rate of return in Islamic Bank. It supports the hyphotesis that rate of return in Islamic banking mimic rate of interest in conventional bank. The results of the study have important implications on the risk management practices of the Islamic banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: conventional bank, interest rate, Islamic bank, rate of return

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Dharshini M., Hema N. S.

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The project for the production of aniline is done by providing 295.46 tons per day of nitrobenzene as feed. The material and energy balance calculations for the different equipment like distillation column, heat exchangers, reactor and mixer are carried out with simulation via DWSIM. The conversion of nitrobenzene to aniline by hydrogenation process is considered to be 96% and the total production of the plant was found to be 215 TPD. The cost estimation of the process is carried out to estimate the feasibility of the plant. The net profit and percentage return of investment is estimated to be ₹27 crores and 24.6%. The payback period was estimated to be 4.05 years and the unit production cost is ₹113/kg. A techno-economic analysis was performed for the production of aniline; the result includes economic analysis and sensitivity analysis of critical factors. From economic analysis, larger the plant scale increases the total capital investment and annual operating cost, even though the unit production cost decreases. Uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the influence of economic factors on profitability and the scenario analysis is one way to quantify uncertainty. In scenario analysis the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario are compared with the base case scenario. The best-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 120 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹112.05/kg and the worst-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 60 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹115.9/kg. The base case is closely related to the best case by 99.2% in terms of unit production cost. since the unit production cost is less and the profitability is more with less payback time, it is feasible to construct a plant at this capacity.

Keywords: aniline, nitrobenzene, economic analysis, unit production cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Alexandra-Veronica Luca, Letitia Petrescu

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Steel production is a major contributor to global warming potential. An average value of 1.83 tons of CO₂ is emitted for every ton of steel produced, resulting in over 3.3 Mt of CO₂ emissions each year. The present paper is focused on the investigation and comparison of two O₂ separation methods and two CO₂ capture technologies applicable to iron and steel industry. The O₂ used in steel production comes from an Air Separation Unit (ASU) using distillation or from air separation using membranes. The CO₂ capture technologies are represented by a two-stage membrane separation process and the gas-liquid absorption using methyl di-ethanol amine (MDEA). Process modelling and simulation tools, as well as environmental tools, are used in the present study. The production capacity of the steel mill is 4,000,000 tones/year. In order to compare the two CO₂ capture technologies in terms of efficiency, performance, and sustainability, the following cases have been investigated: Case 1: steel production using O₂ from ASU and no CO₂ capture; Case 2: steel production using O₂ from ASU and gas-liquid absorption for CO₂ capture; Case 3: steel production using O₂ from ASU and membranes for CO₂ capture; Case 4: steel production using O₂ from membrane separation method and gas-liquid absorption for CO₂ capture and Case-5: steel production using membranes for air separation and CO₂ capture. The O₂ separation rate obtained in the distillation technology was about 96%, and about 33% in the membrane technology. Similarly, the O₂ purity resulting in the conventional process (i.e. distillation) is higher compared to the O₂ purity obtained in the membrane unit (e.g., 99.50% vs. 73.66%). The air flow-rate required for membrane separation is about three times higher compared to the air flow-rate for cryogenic distillation (e.g., 549,096.93 kg/h vs. 189,743.82 kg/h). A CO₂ capture rate of 93.97% was obtained in the membrane case, while the CO₂ capture rate for the gas-liquid absorption was 89.97%. A quantity of 6,626.49 kg/h CO₂ with a purity of 95.45% is separated from the total 23,352.83 kg/h flue-gas in the membrane process, while with absorption of 6,173.94 kg/h CO₂ with a purity of 98.79% is obtained from 21,902.04 kg/h flue-gas and 156,041.80 kg/h MDEA is recycled. The simulation results, performed using ChemCAD process simulator software, lead to the conclusion that membrane-based technology can be a suitable alternative for CO₂ removal for steel production. An environmental evaluation using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology was also performed. Considering the electricity consumption, the performance, and environmental indicators, Case 3 can be considered the most effective. The environmental evaluation, performed using GaBi software, shows that membrane technology can lead to lower environmental emissions if membrane production is based on benzene derived from toluene hydrodealkilation and chlorine and sodium hydroxide are produced using mixed technologies.

Keywords: CO₂ capture, gas-liquid absorption, Life Cycle Assessment, membrane separation, steel production

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: S. Saroop, D. Allopi

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In the area of civil infrastructure, there is an urgent need to apply technologies that deliver infrastructure sustainably in a way that is cost-effective. Civil engineering projects can have a significant impact on ecological and social systems if not correctly planned, designed and implemented. It can impact climate change by addressing the issue of flooding and sustainability. Poor design choices now can result in future generations to live in a climate with depleted resources and without green spaces. The objectives of the research study were to rate the sensitivity of various greener infrastructure technologies that can be used in township infrastructure, at the various stages of the project. This paper discusses the Green Township Infrastructure Design Toolkit, that is used to rate the sustainability of infrastructure service projects. Various case studies were undertaken on a range of infrastructure projects to test the sensitivity of various design solution against sustainability criteria. The Green reporting tools ensure efficient, economical and sustainable provision of infrastructure services.

Keywords: eco-efficiency, green infrastructure, green technology, infrastructure design, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 347